357 replies to this topic

[NatetheGreat]

There doesn't seem to be a clear runaway favorite for MVP this season.

The closest to a favorite seems to be Peyton Manning--the comeback narrative, the fact that the Broncos will likely finish 13-3 or 12-4, stellar numbers (probably finishes the season with over 4000 yards, close to 35 tds and around 7.9 YPA). However, he's already won this award a shitload of times, and he will probably get the Comeback Player of the Year Award over AP which may convince voters they've awarded him enough. Plus, the Broncos schedule this year has been hilariously easy.

Brady doesn't have quite as good numbers or :"narrative" as Peyton, but when you consider schedule played his season has arguably been more impressive.

Rodgers is close to both these guys, but doesn't really have an argument over either IMO.

So who wins it? Or are there any other people who should be considered--Peterson maybe? RG3?

[Hendu for Kutch]

I think if the Patriots run the table and Brady has very good performances against HOU and SF, it's his. If he plays mediocre or they drop a game, it's going to Manning. Unless Peterson breaks the single-season rushing record and/or gets the Vikings to the playoffs, in which case he might get it.

Brady's either at the front of the line or just behind Manning right now. He's got a huge stage to work with this week and next.

Edited by Hendu for Kutch, 10 December 2012 - 01:46 PM.

[Stitch01]

Manning is going to get it if Denver wins out. Brady's play looks slightly better to me, but its close enough that Manning isnt a horrible choice.

[Jungleland]

I think right now the favorite has to be whichever of Peyton and Brady ends up with a bye. They're both putting up incredible numbers and it's hard to pick between the two before the chips fall.

AP should win comeback player of the year though, but he has no chance unless he breaks the record. What he's doing right now is arguably the most incredible thing I've ever seen on a football field.

[glennhoffmania]

Why does AP have no chance?

And can you win comeback player when you only miss 4 games the previous year?

[PC Drunken Friar]

Brady's and Manning's numbers are actually pretty close.

3537 yards for Brady, 3812 for Manning.

65% completion percentage to 68%.

25 TD/4 Int to 30/10. Each has 2 fumbles. If the Pats win out, i think Brady should deserve it.

[Jungleland]

Adrian Peterson is arguably the best running back of this generation, but he isn't half the media darling that Peyton is. I can't be the only one who feels like Peyton won the award the minute he stepped on the field week 1.

That AP missed less than half the season last year creates an interesting debate, but the fact that he's in range of running for more yards than anyone has in NFL history (on a team with no other quality skill players now that Harvin's out) coming off a December ACL injury is so unprecedented that he certainly warrants serious consideration.

Edited by Jungleland, 10 December 2012 - 01:55 PM.

[DrewDawg]

It will be Manning. Someone else may actually deserve it, but it will be Manning.

[Dehere]

For me the most mind-blowing player in football this year - and a guy who has no chance at all to be voted MVP - has been Calvin Johnson.

[glennhoffmania]

Manning may win it but I'd vote for Peterson. Even ignoring his knee surgery, he's been ridiculous all year on a team that lost its only other big weapon and has a shitty QB. He's on pace to finish with 1,969 rushing yards, 2,229 yards from scrimmage, and 12 TDs. He's basically carried MN into playoff contention by himself.

Edited by glennhoffmania, 10 December 2012 - 02:00 PM.

[NatetheGreat]

Manning may win it but I'd vote for Peterson. Even ignoring his knee surgery, he's been ridiculous all year on a team that lost its only other big weapon and has a shitty QB. He's on pace to finish with 1,969 rushing yards, 2,229 yards from scrimmage, and 12 TDs. He's basically carried MN into playoff contention by himself.

I'd agree that in this era of pass-dominated offense and running back by committee, its refreshing to see a running back come out and put his team on his back like this. Manning and Brady are both having great season, but they're the sort of great seasons we expect from elite QBs in this era. Nobody expects the sort of performance AP has been delivering this season.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I think it will be Manning or Brady, TBD over the next month.

Peterson is having a great season but unless he breaks the rushing record, I don't see it being enough. Tomlinson and Alexander are the only RBs to win MVP in the Age of Obscene Passing Offense (last 10 years) and they each put up video game TD numbers that voters couldn't ignore. If Chris Johnson lost the 2009 MVP to Manning in a year in which he broke the all-time record for yards from scrimmage and Peyton actually had good-but-not-great (for him) numbers - clearly worse than his or Brady's this year - then I wouldn't expect Peterson to win this year.

Edited by Morgan's Magic Snowplow, 10 December 2012 - 02:20 PM.

[rodderick]

If the Patriots win out and Brady plays well against the Texans and 49ers, he'll be the MVP. He'd have at least the same record as Manning, but with a much more impressive list of wins, including beating Peyton's Broncos.

I still eagerly await for somebody to question how impressive it really is to have success with a team that Tim fucking Tebow led to the Divisional round last year, but I digress.

Edited by rodderick, 10 December 2012 - 02:21 PM.

[ifmanis5]

For me the most mind-blowing player in football this year - and a guy who has no chance at all to be voted MVP - has been Calvin Johnson.

Thought you were going to say RGIII.

[Oppo]

While I don't agree, it seems like the brain trust of espn is pumping up manning, jj watt, and von miller

[maufman]

I see a more fluid MVP race than others here. Manning would win if the vote were held today, but Brady, AP, Rodgers, RG3, and (to a lesser extent) Matt Ryan are all in the mix.

[Drocca]

Shouldn't it be J.J. Watt? In a year without a clear cut offensive MVP I imagine there will be a groundswell of support to get a defensive player named and he seems like he's the right guy on the right team.

I'm thinking of it in terms of predicting the award.

[RedOctober3829]

Candidates should be Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Adrian Peterson, and JJ Watt. Unlike the Heisman this year with Te'o, Watt has been a dominating force on the defensive side of the ball. A 5-technique DE getting as many sacks as he has is quite amazing. He's also in the top 10 in the NFL in passes defended. Think about that for a minute and realize how amazing that is from a DE.

My choice at the moment would be Peyton Manning, but Brady and Watt have a chance to make the late charge for the award. Peterson has an outside shot.

[maufman]

Candidates should be Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Adrian Peterson, and JJ Watt. Unlike the Heisman this year with Te'o, Watt has been a dominating force on the defensive side of the ball. A 5-technique DE getting as many sacks as he has is quite amazing. He's also in the top 10 in the NFL in passes defended. Think about that for a minute and realize how amazing that is from a DE.

My choice at the moment would be Peyton Manning, but Brady and Watt have a chance to make the late charge for the award. Peterson has an outside shot.

50 solo tackles too, which is a ridiculous number for a DE.

Surprised not to see more RG3 love -- he leads the league in QB Rating and has an outside chance to hit 1,000 yards rushing.

[Jnai]

I don't think Watt has a legitimate shot. He's a phenomenal player, might completely dominate the remainder of his games, and will show up on lists such as these, but let's not kid ourselves. He has a legitimate shot to have his name mentioned as a possible MVP candidate. He has no actual shot to win the MVP.

It's like saying Ron Paul has a chance to be President. It's cool that he gets to be in the same room as Presidential candidates. But he's got no real shot.

[MentalDisabldLst]

For me the most mind-blowing player in football this year - and a guy who has no chance at all to be voted MVP - has been Calvin Johnson.

Did you see the way he got handled last night? He didn't even have one of the two eye-popping catches in the game. A no-name CB basically took him 1-on-1 and shut him down.

He may or may not be the best WR in the NFL right now, but what I've seen of him hasn't made me think "jesus christ, what an unbelievable talent".

[Al Zarilla]

I see a more fluid MVP race than others here. Manning would win if the vote were held today, but Brady, AP, Rodgers, RG3, and (to a lesser extent) Matt Ryan are all in the mix.

I would think Ryan's five interception game killed him (although the Falcons still won that game). He's also down at eighth in passer rating right now.

Adrian Peterson would get my vote. Is anybody carrying his team more? Well, Manning, Brady and Rodgers maybe. Tough one.

Edited by Al Zarilla, 10 December 2012 - 04:05 PM.

[Ed Hillel]

It's going to be Manning, unless Brady or Peterson absolutely go insane the last month. Tie, or anything relatively close, goes to the Manning.

He even bought a pizza joint this year. How awesome is that?

Edited by Ed Hillel, 10 December 2012 - 02:58 PM.

[Ralphwiggum]

No defensive player has won since LT in '86 and I think only one other defensive player has ever won. Watt has been unreal but I can't see the vote going his way. I think it is Brady or Manning and Manning takes it unless he really falls down these last few games. That's the vote that comes with the best/easiest narrative.

Peterson I think has an outside shot if he breaks the rushing record but it is basically a QB award now.

[Mystic Merlin]

I wouldn't call Tramon Williams a 'no-name' CB. Dude is considered to be a good cover corner, which he is (and I know someone will bring up last year, when he was - as we know now - battling Hobbesian (no, not him) injuries).

And I don't know if catching 10 balls for 118 is a poor day at the office. Williams - and the safeties who gave him considerable help either on outright doubles near the goal-line and on some third downs, or over-the-top outside of the red area - succeeded in limiting the big plays, but he did not 'shut him down'. The Packers got what they wanted in that CJ wasn't a force in the red zone or downfield (had one 20 yard catch), but let's not get carried away.

[Ed Hillel]

Rodgers should also be in the discussion, even though he's on pace for a paltry 4,100 yards.

[tims4wins]

True, but he won't win, because A) the writers tend to not vote for back-to-back MVPs, and B) because his season is just a notch below Manning and Brady, and his team isn't having as good a year. That said, things can change in 3 weeks.

[cshea]

CJ also has a chance to break Rice's record for single season receiving yards (Needs 302 yards in the final 3 games). If his team wasn't 4-9, I think he would be getting a lot more recognition.

[glennhoffmania]

I wouldn't call Tramon Williams a 'no-name' CB. Dude is considered to be a good cover corner, which he is (and I know someone will bring up last year, when he was - as we know now - battling Hobbesian (no, not him) injuries).

And I don't know if catching 10 balls for 118 is a poor day at the office. Williams - and the safeties who gave him considerable help either on outright doubles near the goal-line and on some third downs, or over-the-top outside of the red area - succeeded in limiting the big plays, but he did not 'shut him down'. The Packers got what they wanted in that CJ wasn't a force in the red zone or downfield (had one 20 yard catch), but let's not get carried away.

Yeah if 10-118 is getting shut down then I have to reconsider my WR evaluation process. Last night wasn't even close to his worst game(s) of the season.

[Vertebreaker]

Brady, for all intents and purposes has had a better year then Manning. He's played better defenses, thrown less picks and his team beat Mannings.

I think AP has an outside chance at winning, the dude has destroyed opponents. Before the season started, Bill Barnwell wrote a column saying that since AP's time as "best running back in the league" has passed, it was time to crown a new leader. He gave it to Ray Rice. AP just came back this year and ripped the "best RB in the league" belt right out of Rice's hands and got Rice's girlfriend to strap it around his waist.

If were using the old "Who means the most to their team" premise, Andrew Luck deserves some votes. Look at Indy with him compared to Indy without him. He'll never get it, now way a rookie wins, but he just might deserve to.

[drleather2001]

Manning is going to win, purely because the "Peyton's Back!" mantra is too juicy to ignore. All he needs to do is have his numbers be good enough to plausibly qualify as "best QB" this year.

Of course, the narrative will include some play on the idea that he "Brought Denver Back to the Days of Elway" or something, and as such will completely ignore that the Broncos won a playoff game last year, but the Tebow backlash is such that it's like that never happened.

Edited by drleather2001, 10 December 2012 - 03:30 PM.

[cshea]

Luck's raw numbers are pretty awful. He wins, and means a lot to the Colts, but he's nowhere close statistically. No way he gets consideration. 54.9% completion, 18 TD, 16 picks (tied with Brees for league lead) and a Sanchez-esque 74.5 rating.

Edited by cshea, 10 December 2012 - 03:32 PM.

[MentalDisabldLst]

If were using the old "Who means the most to their team" premise, Andrew Luck deserves some votes. Look at Indy with him compared to Indy without him. He'll never get it, now way a rookie wins, but he just might deserve to.

That argument cuts in favor of Peyton, too.

[sleepyjose03]

Unfortunately for AP - I think he's a year or so "before his time" this season. These awards are very much about narratives, and the "Amazing Passing Stats" narrative hasn't quite faded yet. The signs are there - the intelligent fans are talking about the inflation of the stats, and the ridiculous totals being put up by so many players recently will eventually result in even the mainstream meidiots from discounting them - but we're not there yet.

If AP had put up these numbers next year - after another NFL season with yet-again-increasingly eye-popping numbers by QBs - he would have had a much better chance to take home the award.

But I don't see it happening yet. Too many people will still drool over QB counting stats relative to the averages over their football viewing life and award it to Brady or Manning or Rodgers or whoever has the best stats at the end of the season.

[j44thor]

If RGIII doesn't miss anytime he has to be in the conversation. That team is pretty awful at the skill positions and they have one of the worst D in all of football yet he has them in playoff contention after wins against the defending SB champs and the Ravens.

Manning should be a lock for comeback player of the year since he missed an entire season and there was serious retirement talk just 6 months ago.

[drleather2001]

That argument cuts in favor of Peyton, too.

How so? They won a playoff game last year without him.

[Vertebreaker]

That argument cuts in favor of Peyton, too.

Except for the fact that Denver went to the second round last year with a Quarterback who can't throw a spiral.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Unfortunately for AP - I think he's a year or so "before his time" this season. These awards are very much about narratives, and the "Amazing Passing Stats" narrative hasn't quite faded yet. The signs are there - the intelligent fans are talking about the inflation of the stats, and the ridiculous totals being put up by so many players recently will eventually result in even the mainstream meidiots from discounting them - but we're not there yet.

If AP had put up these numbers next year - after another NFL season with yet-again-increasingly eye-popping numbers by QBs - he would have had a much better chance to take home the award.

But I don't see it happening yet. Too many people will still drool over QB counting stats relative to the averages over their football viewing life and award it to Brady or Manning or Rodgers or whoever has the best stats at the end of the season.

One way to view things is that people are just drooling over QB stats.

The other (and, IMO, correct) way to view things is that trends in the game have simply increased the importance and value of the QB position relative to all others. Therefore, if the discussion is going to be about value added, then it is really very hard to go wrong simply voting for the best QB every year.

AP has had a great year and its a little boring to give MVP to a QB every season. But I don't really see the argument that AP has provided remotely the same value to his team as Brady or Manning. Its just a structural feature of the game of football. QB is the most important position and it is not close. They handle the ball the most and their actions are the most consequential. Voting for a RB is like voting for a relief pitcher or a guy with 400 ABs - he better have done otherworldly things with those opportunities, because he didn't have the same chances to impact games.

Edited by Morgan's Magic Snowplow, 10 December 2012 - 03:50 PM.

[BigSoxFan]

I think you can make an argument for Peterson since he's been averaging 160 yards / game ever since Percy Harvin went down, who was having a Pro Bowl season and is really the only other big play guy Minnesota has. Of course, the argument for Peyton/Brady is stronger but if Peterson can reach 2,000 yards for the season and the Vikings make the playoffs, his narrative gets a little more cache.

[maufman]

I would think Ryan's five interception game killed him (although the Falcons still won that game). He's also down at eighth in passer rating right now.

If the Falcons run the table to finish 14-2, and Ryan leads the league in passing yards, he'll get serious consideration.

I don't think that's particularly likely to happen, which is why I mentioned him as an aside after listing the five guys I think have a serious chance (Manning, Brady, AP, Rodgers, RG3).

[coremiller]

What makes Peterson such an enticing choice IMO is how far ahead he is of the other guys at his position. We can have a debate about whether Brady or Manning or Rodgers is the best QB (and some people might want to argue for darkhorse candidates like Ryan or RG3), but they're all pretty close in value; meanwhile, AP is far and away the best running back in the league. He's going to win the rushing title by several hundred yards, on a team with a mediocre at best QB and whose only other decent skill-position player missed half the season and without a particularly good line. Shaun Alexander scoring a boatload of TDs by running behind Walter Jones/Steve Hutchinson this is not. He's averaging better than 6 yards/attempt while playing a tough schedule and with defenses keyed to stop him and only him. He beat Chicago (one of the league's best defenses) just about single-handedly this week, and if he can drag Minnesota into the playoffs (a tough task with games against Houston and Green Bay remaining), he'll have a strong case. That he's doing this after tearing his acl/mcl last december is practically a miracle.

[Dgilpin]

Did you see the way he got handled last night? He didn't even have one of the two eye-popping catches in the game. A no-name CB basically took him 1-on-1 and shut him down.

He may or may not be the best WR in the NFL right now, but what I've seen of him hasn't made me think "jesus christ, what an unbelievable talent".

You do realize he finished the game with 10 catches for 118 yards, with a WR that was on the practice squad last week lining up on the other side.

Another thing in favor of Peterson is how bad Ponder has been this season, the Vikings has almost no passing attack and Peterson has still been able to run at will on opponents. Completely different style of runner but reminds of some of Barry Sanders seasons, where the Lions had no passing attack and he was still able to rattle off big games.

Edited by Dgilpin, 10 December 2012 - 04:40 PM.

[Ralphwiggum]

As far as Luck and the Colts go, I hate the argument that they sucked last year and are X games better this year and therefore he should be MVP. Luck is not the only thing different about the team, including most prominently the fact that they have a completely new coaching staff. They also pretty much did not try to win last year once Manning went down. They were a very good team in 2010 with Manning and many of those pieces are still there. He did not walkt into a team devoid of talent despite their horrible record from last year.

Luck is 31st in QB rating and leads the league in interceptions thrown. Not to say that Luck is not going to be a great QB because I think he will be, but to me Griffin has a legit MVP case and Luck does not.

[Turrable]

[m0ckduck]

Brady's candidacy is hurt by the fact that, if you looking on from a slight distance (meaning: if you're not a Pats fan, or not paying really, really close attention), it's almost impossible to differentiate his campaign this year from any of his other recent seasons. For the punditocracy, Manning's season is like somebody who really loves Boston cranking up 'More Than A Feelin'' after not having listened to it for a full year— it has an irresistible pull for familiar-yet-feels-new-at-the-same-time.

[Dehere]

Did you see the way he got handled last night? He didn't even have one of the two eye-popping catches in the game. A no-name CB basically took him 1-on-1 and shut him down.

He may or may not be the best WR in the NFL right now, but what I've seen of him hasn't made me think "jesus christ, what an unbelievable talent".

Really? Different strokes, I guess. His talent level blows me away and even in a game where he was surrounded by replacement-level talent he quietly finished with strong numbers.

In a league loaded with freakish athletes he stands out to me as being on his own level as far as pure physical gifts. He's going to finish the season with historic numbers and if anything he's still grossly underutilized in that offense.

[MentalDisabldLst]

How so? They won a playoff game last year without him.

Based on the difference between the 2010 Colts and the 2011 Colts. It was a common refrain last year, but this year he's actually playing.

It was a throwaway line - obviously Denver would still be a contender with a league-average QB.

For similar reasons, one could argue that the 2008 Patriots' success (playoff tiebreakers aside) proves that Brady may not have deserved the 2007 MVP.

[MentalDisabldLst]

Really? Different strokes, I guess. His talent level blows me away and even in a game where he was surrounded by replacement-level talent he quietly finished with strong numbers.

In a league loaded with freakish athletes he stands out to me as being on his own level as far as pure physical gifts. He's going to finish the season with historic numbers and if anything he's still grossly underutilized in that offense.

I'll admit I was much more impressed with his route-running and ball-reading, not to mention his hands, in the Thanksgiving games this year and last. While the game last night was still in doubt, he was targeted infrequently and missed some catches that I would have expected an MVP-level WR to make (e.g. jump balls where he has 6 inches on the CB).

To speak of freakish athletes, I feel the same way you do about Calvin Johnson when I think about Gronk having the size of a lineman, the speed of a WR, and the ability to run through people and keep his balance of a RB. Or Adrian Peterson's ability to make people miss with lightning-quick direction changes, weight shifts and crazy acceleration. I just see a lot more beauty in what they do. I felt that way about Randy Moss once, FWIW.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

What makes Peterson such an enticing choice IMO is how far ahead he is of the other guys at his position. We can have a debate about whether Brady or Manning or Rodgers is the best QB (and some people might want to argue for darkhorse candidates like Ryan or RG3), but they're all pretty close in value; meanwhile, AP is far and away the best running back in the league. He's going to win the rushing title by several hundred yards, on a team with a mediocre at best QB and whose only other decent skill-position player missed half the season and without a particularly good line. Shaun Alexander scoring a boatload of TDs by running behind Walter Jones/Steve Hutchinson this is not. He's averaging better than 6 yards/attempt while playing a tough schedule and with defenses keyed to stop him and only him. He beat Chicago (one of the league's best defenses) just about single-handedly this week, and if he can drag Minnesota into the playoffs (a tough task with games against Houston and Green Bay remaining), he'll have a strong case. That he's doing this after tearing his acl/mcl last december is practically a miracle.

But the award isn't supposed to go to the guy who is the best relative to other players at his position (and, if it did, it would go to JJ Watt). Its supposed to go to the guy who is the most valuable player.

[Al Zarilla]

Really? Different strokes, I guess. His talent level blows me away and even in a game where he was surrounded by replacement-level talent he quietly finished with strong numbers.

In a league loaded with freakish athletes he stands out to me as being on his own level as far as pure physical gifts. He's going to finish the season with historic numbers and if anything he's still grossly underutilized in that offense.

CJ needs 100 yards per game plus 3 yards to break Rice's all time receiving yards in a season record. He has averaged 118.9 ypg through 13 games. Just for the hell of it, Adrian Peterson would need 505 yards, or 168.3 ypg to break Eric Dickerson's all time yards in a season record. I hope CJ does it. AP needs a miracle.