577 replies to this topic

[Joshv02]

Carpenter has an option and will ride the Pawtucket to Boston shuttle. Mortensen used his last option in 2012. Carpenter won't be DFA'ed before Mortensen.

[Plympton91]

Yeah, that to me is the big under-explored question, perhaps worth of its own thread. I hope that the new and improved communication style post Valentine include long converstions with Bailey ensuring that he is currrently and will remain comfortable playing the role of "relief ace" with its attendant loss of dollars in arbnitration. Or, perhaps they've got a buyer for Bailey but wanted to lock down a replacement closer first.

I also come down on the side of those who aren't feeling like this bullpen is any great shakes. They've got the potential to be very good, but that requires perfect health and full transition of Hanrahan to the AL East. The standard is Soriano/Robertson; Papelbon/Bard; Feliz/Ogando; Dibble/Myers. They're not there.

[Savin Hillbilly]

The standard is Soriano/Robertson; Papelbon/Bard; Feliz/Ogando; Dibble/Myers. They're not there.

That's thinking in terms of the classic two-man, closer-plus-setup-plus-a-bunch-of-whatever approach. Which is fair enough if you want to do it, but it's glaringly obvious that Ben is taking a different approach here. He's building a bullpen somewhat the way Theo built the 2003-4 lineup: by eliminating weak spots at the bottom rather than by maximizing the quality at the top. (OK, granted, the 2003-04 Sox had Manny, and this bullpen doesn't have anyone like that; but the basic building principle is similar.)

If you say the standard is Soriano/Robertson, Ben counters that the standard is Hanrahan/Bailey/Uehara/Tazawa/Bard/Breslow/Morales. (Feel free to plug in Aceves or Miller for one of those last three; that's kind of the point.) He's built a bullpen that will have four or five guys who have all been either closers or elite setup men within the past two years. And that's just the RHP; there's quality depth from the left side as well.

This is a pen that could, if all goes right (and that's a qualifier that has to be applied to every single bullpen, every single year), make the Sox the toughest team in the majors to score on from the sixth inning on. I'm not really worried about the fact that you can't name any two guys who sound as impressive as the duos you list above.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I would also argue that it wouldn't take perfect health for this bullpen to be very good. The benefit of having a bunch of guys who can all do similar jobs at similar levels of effectiveness is that if (when) injuries happen, you can plug holes really quickly. Sure, the bullpen at full strength is going to be stronger than the bullpen not at full strength... that should be apparent to anyone with a functioning brain cell left, but the pen in Boston will be in a position to weather injuries better than most. Plus, most bullpens deal with injuries each year. It's just part of the game.

[soxfan121]

This is a pen that could, if all goes right (and that's a qualifier that has to be applied to every single bullpen, every single year), make the Sox the toughest team in the majors to score on from the sixth inning on. I'm not really worried about the fact that you can't name any two guys who sound as impressive as the duos you list above.

It's a flexible group. Who's limited to one inning or one batter? Farrell doesn't seem like a strict LaRussan with the bullpen roles and having guys who can get 4 or 5 outs instead of 2 or 3 leads to some interesting usage possibilities that might protect a possibly shaky rotation. Assuming health and full effectiveness, there's Morales, Miller, Bard, & Tazawa capable of "long" relief stints, with Bailey, Hanrahan, Breslow and Uehara in the late inning 2-3 out situations.

[JMDurron]

The key to this bullpen's effectiveness (besides health, obviously, as has already been covered) is likely to be the effectiveness of the rotation. If Lester/Buchholz are no better/healthier than they were in 2012, then the rotation is going to be a gaping chest wound in the body of this team, and the bullpen will be worn down into uselessness by the ASB. The only thing more likely to create a gap between our expectations and reality than assuming that MLB relief pitchers will exhibit anything remotely resembling consistency of performance level from year to year is assuming that the bullpen can succeed in isolation from the rotation. If they are stuck pitching 4-5 innings per game 3-4 times through the rotation every 5 games, then they are going to suck regardless of the individual performance levels.

[someoneanywhere]

The key to this bullpen's effectiveness (besides health, obviously, as has already been covered) is likely to be the effectiveness of the rotation. If Lester/Buchholz are no better/healthier than they were in 2012, then the rotation is going to be a gaping chest wound in the body of this team, and the bullpen will be worn down into uselessness by the ASB. The only thing more likely to create a gap between our expectations and reality than assuming that MLB relief pitchers will exhibit anything remotely resembling consistency of performance level from year to year is assuming that the bullpen can succeed in isolation from the rotation. If they are stuck pitching 4-5 innings per game 3-4 times through the rotation every 5 games, then they are going to suck regardless of the individual performance levels.

That wouldn't be the key to this bullpen's effectiveness. That would be the key to any bullpen's effectiveness.

The one word no one is using is "committee." And while I won't say this is a pen by committee either -- the anointing yesterday of Hanrahan as closer precludes the traditional committee definition -- it does seem to me that within a framework of roles [these are my seventh and eighth inning guys; here's my closer; here's my other closer[s] when my closer is unavailable] there will be a lot of mixing and matching from game to game.

[Plympton91]

I'm not seeing the same depth as others. I list Bard as a total lost cause until proven otherwise. Even still, at the end of spring training, the Red Sox will have to DFA up to 3 of the people that are being listed as part of that depth, or they'll have to stash De la rosa,Tazawa,Carpenter, (and Bard) at Pawtucket. That leaves Hanrahan,Uehara,Bailey,Breslow,Morales,Miller,Aceves, with Mortenson DFA'ed. If they instead take what looks like the best staff north at the end of spring training, then they add Tazawa and De la rosa but eat up the depth to respond to injuries. And with Bailey, De la Rosa, and Tazawa Tommy John survivors and Uehara age 38, they might be better off keeping the depth even at the cost of suboptimal near-term performance. Or maybe they can go with 13 pitchers, a backup C, Ciriaco, and Gomes. Perhaps not carry a backup catcher, with Napoli serving that role even when he's at 1B. That would be highly novel.

[BosRedSox5]

http://www.weei.com/...ever-ready-offe

I feel vindicated now for saying that Bard's struggles last year were due to injuries. That's certainly what he thinks.

[lexrageorge]

http://www.weei.com/...ever-ready-offe

I feel vindicated now for saying that Bard's struggles last year were due to injuries. That's certainly what he thinks.

I realize that some here want to write off Bard completely. But looking back, you do wonder how much of his problems were due to the fact neither Valentine nor McClure were willing to work with him on being a starter from the get go. Realize it's always easy to blame the coaching, but sometimes the coaching is indeed at least part of the problem.

Edited by lexrageorge, 29 December 2012 - 04:36 PM.

[Rasputin]

http://www.weei.com/...ever-ready-offe

I feel vindicated now for saying that Bard's struggles last year were due to injuries. That's certainly what he thinks.

I realize that some here want to right off Bard completely. But looking back, you do wonder how much of his problems were due to the fact neither Valentine nor McClure were willing to work with him on being a starter from the get go. Realize it's always easy to blame the coaching, but sometimes the coaching is indeed at least part of the problem.

That article made it sound like there were a lot of things that were part of the problem and that nobody really knows how much is attributable to which thing.

Regardless, I am encouraged. The bullpen looks like it could be good enough to trade off Hanrahan at the deadline and still be a force down the stretch. If de la Rosa is looking good, the potential return for selling Hanrahan and Dempster is intriguing.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

If his back was a significant part of the drop in velocity, that's a whole lot better than elbow or shoulder pain but would it account for the extreme loss of control? I suppose back pain would make it difficult or even impossible to repeat mechanics which would likely contribute to control issues. It wouldn't shock me to see him return to form next year but I think you have to move forward assuming that Bard is cooked and deal with the rather pleasant problem of a crowded pen should it turn out that he's not. It seems this is what the Red Sox are doing, at any rate.

[lexrageorge]

My projections for Opening Day pitching roster:

Starters (5): Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, Dempster, Lackey

Relievers locked (5): Bailey, Hanrahan, Uehara, Aceves, Morales

Minors (6): Britton, Carpenter, De La Rosa, Webster, Wilson, Wright

Bubble/DFA (2): Mortenson, one of Breslow/Miller

Competing for remaining 2 spots: remainder of Breslow/Miller, Tazawa, Bard

Comments: Bard will need a strong spring to get into the mix, and will be given every opportunity to have one. While I'm sure some folks will cry foul at having Tazawa start the season in AAA, it would be an easy way to alleviate the near term roster crunch.

Miller and Breslow are a bit redundant, and with Morales available there is more than enough lefty arms available in the pen. Miller is younger, but still needs to show that he can be a reliable LOOGY (6 BB's in 6 IP in September is a concern).

Another possibility is that Lackey starts the season in extended spring training, and the team goes through April with 4 starters plus Aceves/Morales plugging in the 5th starter role when one is needed.

The crunch is a short term thingy. By June, everyone will know a lot more. At least one of the above will end up with a sore elbow or something. If Aceves blows up, he gets DFA'd. If not, he could be a useful trade piece. If Uehara blows up, he can be DFA'd; not ideal given the $4+M invested, but that won't stop a mid-season DFA if his ERA is 7.50.

[Rovin Romine]

http://www.weei.com/...ever-ready-offe

I feel vindicated now for saying that Bard's struggles last year were due to injuries. That's certainly what he thinks.

I hear what you're saying, but I'm fine with whatever Bard needs to do to rationalize it and move forward (or backward to 2010, as the case may be). Little green men, too many twinkies, whatever.

It's pretty apparent that Bard approached pitching as a starter in a way that was *significantly* different than pitching as a reliever. Whatever he did, it didn't work for him. (And this was exacerbated by overthinking and/or conflicting advice).

I'm cautiously optimistic for a Bard revival, simply based on the off-season giving his brain, his body, and his ego a rest. Hopefully he can start "fresh" as a reliever - by going back to his Farrell-era mechanics and approach.

[teddywingman]

My projections for Opening Day pitching roster:

Competing for remaining 2 spots: remainder of Breslow/Miller, Tazawa, Bard

I'm going to assume you didn't see many of Tazawa's appearances last season. It's very possible that he has the best stuff of anyone in this bullpen. No way he's competing for a remaining spot. He's a lock.

[Rasputin]

My projections for Opening Day pitching roster:

Starters (5): Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, Dempster, Lackey

Relievers locked (5): Bailey, Hanrahan, Uehara, Aceves, Morales

Minors (6): Britton, Carpenter, De La Rosa, Webster, Wilson, Wright

Bubble/DFA (2): Mortenson, one of Breslow/Miller

Competing for remaining 2 spots: remainder of Breslow/Miller, Tazawa, Bard

Comments: Bard will need a strong spring to get into the mix, and will be given every opportunity to have one. While I'm sure some folks will cry foul at having Tazawa start the season in AAA, it would be an easy way to alleviate the near term roster crunch.

Miller and Breslow are a bit redundant, and with Morales available there is more than enough lefty arms available in the pen. Miller is younger, but still needs to show that he can be a reliable LOOGY (6 BB's in 6 IP in September is a concern).

Another possibility is that Lackey starts the season in extended spring training, and the team goes through April with 4 starters plus Aceves/Morales plugging in the 5th starter role when one is needed.

The crunch is a short term thingy. By June, everyone will know a lot more. At least one of the above will end up with a sore elbow or something. If Aceves blows up, he gets DFA'd. If not, he could be a useful trade piece. If Uehara blows up, he can be DFA'd; not ideal given the $4+M invested, but that won't stop a mid-season DFA if his ERA is 7.50.

I am forced to question your grasp on reality.

Aceves and Morales are locks but Tazawa isn't? This is madness

Bard doesn't have to have a strong spring, he just has to prove that whatever the hell happened last year is behind him.

[Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat]

I think people are undervaluing Breslow. He's not a LOOGY, he's a solid reliever who throws from the left side. I can't imagine keeping Miller over him.

[lexrageorge]

Tazawa and Bard both have options, which is why I didn't put either as locks. At least one of Morales and Aceves will be kept, so maybe naming both as "locks" could be strong; Morales pitched well last year in both starting and in relief, so I can't imagine him being DFA'd. Aceves is probably on shakier ground, but Farrell's comments make me wonder if the organization has decided to give him a second chance.

Bottom line is that unless one of Aceves, Bailey or Morales gets traded, or Aceves gets released, there is little chance that all 4 of Bard, Tazawa, Miller and Breslow start the season with the big club, and a good chance that only 2 make it.

Bard doesn't have to have a strong spring, he just has to prove that whatever the hell happened last year is behind him.

This is where I need to question your grasp on reality. If he walks 15 batters in 12 spring innings, I'm not convinced he's going to start the season with the big club. He has options, and the easiest thing for the organization to do in that case would be to have him start the season in AAA, which will also likely mean Tazawa gets to start the year with the big club.

[Rasputin]

Tazawa and Bard both have options, which is why I didn't put either as locks. At least one of Morales and Aceves will be kept, so maybe naming both as "locks" could be strong; Morales pitched well last year in both starting and in relief, so I can't imagine him being DFA'd. Aceves is probably on shakier ground, but Farrell's comments make me wonder if the organization has decided to give him a second chance.

Bottom line is that unless one of Aceves, Bailey or Morales gets traded, or Aceves gets released, there is little chance that all 4 of Bard, Tazawa, Miller and Breslow start the season with the big club, and a good chance that only 2 make it.

[/size][/font][/color]

This is where I need to question your grasp on reality. If he walks 15 batters in 12 spring innings, I'm not convinced he's going to start the season with the big club. He has options, and the easiest thing for the organization to do in that case would be to have him start the season in AAA, which will also likely mean Tazawa gets to start the year with the big club.

How the hell is walking 14 guys in 12 innings showing that he has put 2012 behind him?

He doesn't have to have a great spring training he just can't suck.

[Savin Hillbilly]

At least one of Morales and Aceves will be kept, so maybe naming both as "locks" could be strong; Morales pitched well last year in both starting and in relief, so I can't imagine him being DFA'd. Aceves is probably on shakier ground, but Farrell's comments make me wonder if the organization has decided to give him a second chance.

I'm not 100% convinced that even one of Morales/Aceves must be kept. Certainly I can't see keeping both of them--we don't need two long men in a seven-man bullpen--and I agree that Aceves is the odd man out. In terms of pure ability, and leaving bullpen construction/deployment issues aside, he's got to be the sixth righthander on the depth chart. And we're not going to keep six righthanders; it's a question of four vs. five. If we need one guy in the pen whose main virtue is that he can go multiple innings and/or spot start, it seems like a no-brainer that it should be Morales. So I think the only way Aceves is still on the roster by Opening Day is if they trade Morales and one of the five RHPs who should be ahead of Aceves--Hanrahan, Bailey, Uehara, Bard and Tazawa--gets bumped out of the picture for some reason.

I can't imagine that Breslow doesn't make the cut unless something goes seriously wrong in ST. He's the best LHRP on the roster, or at least the most reliable. He's not really redundant with Miller at all; he has a much better track record and he can get righties out, which makes him more versatile. He doesn't have Miller's shutdown stuff, but he doesn't have Miller's question marks either.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Tazawa and Bard both have options, which is why I didn't put either as locks.

Bard has options but must clear optional assignment waivers to be sent down. We can't take it as a given he will clear them. Assumption has to be that he is cover your eyes awful and no one will want him if we expect he can clear waivers. Otherwise they are stuck with him in the big league pen. There is probably very little chance of anything in between...if he shows any signs of "recovery" from 2012, they'll have no flexibility with him in terms of riding the shuttle or "stashing" him in Pawtucket.

[lexrageorge]

Bard has options but must clear optional assignment waivers to be sent down. We can't take it as a given he will clear them. Assumption has to be that he is cover your eyes awful and no one will want him if we expect he can clear waivers. Otherwise they are stuck with him in the big league pen. There is probably very little chance of anything in between...if he shows any signs of "recovery" from 2012, they'll have no flexibility with him in terms of riding the shuttle or "stashing" him in Pawtucket.

I got my information from soxprospects.com, which did not indicate that Bard would have to clear OAW, even though it appears he meets the criteria.

To clarify, my post does not represent what I *want* to happen. Personally, I was first hoping that Aceves would be non-tendered, until I heard Farrell's comments. I still hope he's part of a trade package with Salty, although it's not clear what trade possibilities exist right now. While I could see Aceves being DFA'd if there's a roster crunch when Opening Day approaches, I don't see that happening with Morales, Bailey, or any of their recent additions. I do agree that the team will not take the chance to expose Bard to a waiver claim if he's half decent in spring training. So, in that case, the roster looks like this:

Hanrahan, Bailey, Uehara, Morales, Bard as the locks, with Aceves, Breslow, Tazawa, and Miller fighting for the final 2 spots. I do agree that Breslow is more highly regarded than Miller, so he and Tazawa probably have those 2 final slots close to being sewn up. But the team may not be so quick to part with one of their relievers, and they can option Tazawa without much downside. It's not as outlandish as some here claim.

A couple of questions:

Last spring, the team stretched out Aceves, and he was actually one of their more effective starters in ST. Would the Sox do that again in an attempt to increase his trade value? Would they do the same for Morales? Such an approach would also provide insurance if Lackey is unable to start the season on Opening Day.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Last spring, the team stretched out Aceves, and he was actually one of their more effective starters in ST. Would the Sox do that again in an attempt to increase his trade value? Would they do the same for Morales? Such an approach would also provide insurance if Lackey is unable to start the season on Opening Day.

I think at the very least, they are doing this with Morales. Farrell has already said that Morales will go into spring training preparing as a starter. I could see them doing that with Aceves as well provided there are enough starters' opportunities (both actual starts and piggy-back opportunities) to go around. I'd imagine the first couple weeks will have Lester, Buchholz, Dempster, Doubront, Lackey, Morales, De La Rosa, Webster, Wright, and perhaps Britton getting "starter" treatment in terms of game usage. Some of those guys will probably be piggy backed initially, then sent down to the minor league camp in the last week or two of games to keep them on a schedule, but it still doesn't leave a ton of room to give Aceves a lot of "starter" innings.

Bullpen wise, I think four spots are locked going in, and that's Hanrahan, Bailey, Uehara, and Breslow. I'd make Tazawa my fifth "lock" but he does have that option which means they could stash him to start in order to give a longer look to someone else. The rest are pitching for those final two spots, which I believe Morales and Bard will have the inside track for, while Aceves and Miller have to be convincing enough to force them to use Tazawa's option for flexibility's sake. Key thing is that the bullpen that breaks camp is absolutely not going to be the same as we'll see in May, June, etc.

[someoneanywhere]

http://www.weei.com/...ever-ready-offe

I feel vindicated now for saying that Bard's struggles last year were due to injuries. That's certainly what he thinks.

That's not what he thinks. There is a meaningful and substantial difference between injury and what he is describing here, which is a weak and unconditioned core. He did not realize the stress that starting would put on his core muscles, and that stress began in the spring and stayed with him. He was not hurt; he was just out of shape. He said as much: it didn't affect him physically when he pitched; he never "felt anything." But that weakness contributed both to the drop of velocity, and inability to repeat a delivery ( which would, translate into weaker stuff).

Edited by someoneanywhere, 30 December 2012 - 01:22 PM.

[judyb]

Optional assignment waivers are revocable, so it's at least worth trying first if they'd prefer to option Bard to whatever the alternative is at the time.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Optional assignment waivers are revocable, so it's at least worth trying first if they'd prefer to option Bard to whatever the alternative is at the time.

That's true. What is also true is that if he clears them once, it doesn't mean they can move him back and forth at will as there's an expiration on the waiver clearance. That wouldn't affect him if he was sent down, cleared waivers, and was kept down. But if they recalled him at any point, he might be subject to having to clear waivers again. There are three deadlines during the year...the 31st day of the season, July 31, and October 1. After each deadline, the player is once again subject to OAW if the team were to want to send him down again. So if Bard's optioned to start the year, clears waivers, and is then recalled to the big league roster, he would have to clear again if they wanted to send him down again on, say, June 15.

[SoxScout]

Red Sox manager John Farrell watched a throwing session by Daniel Bard recently and was very impressed with the mechanical and mental approach the righthander showed.

Bard, who had a terrible 2012 season, losing his control and velocity and spending time at Pawtucket, has changed some things.

"He looked very good," said Farrell, who along with pitching coach Juan Nieves watched Bard throw in Mississippi. "His arm slot is back to a normal position. He shows the power he previously as a reliever. His mindset is more clear and his approach is more simplified."

Farrell said also spent time with John Lackey and reported, "He's in great shape."

http://www.boston.co..._impress_1.html

This was the first time Bard threw from a mound this offseason (link). Not quite sure I'm ready to believe the velocity is back until he is throwing 95 in games.

[Rasputin]

Bard should be relatively easy to judge in spring training don't you think?

[DanoooME]

Looks like Atchison won't be an option.

 

Barring something unexpected, that team will not be the Red Sox, Atchison told MLB.com on Monday. Atchison's looking at a Minor League deal, and he'll choose a team he believes gives him a very good chance to make the big league club. "We're pretty close. We're not completely final yet, but I pretty much have a deal, I prefer not to say who right now because it's nothing final, but we're not really out there any more I guess for the most part, unless something fell apart here in the next day, which I don't foresee," said the right-handed Atchison, who turns 37 in March and spent the last three seasons with the Red Sox.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Makes sense. There's really no room for him here.

[PandaSox]

Atchison signs a minor league contract (with a Spring Training invite) with the Mets: http://www.mlbtrader...t-atchison.html

[twothousandone]

The bullpen looks like it could be good enough to trade off Hanrahan at the deadline and still be a force down the stretch. If de la Rosa is looking good, the potential return for selling Hanrahan and Dempster is intriguing.

Ras -- I wrote something similar in response to you in the Kalish thread.

 

But, if they need the bullpen to be a force (that is, they are in the hunt), do you really see them moving a contributing piece? Say Dempster is perfectly average in every way, no matter what stat you pull. That's puts him as the #4 starter (maybe #3 based on consistency, if it's there). de la Rosa is, then, an upgrade for #5 spot, but they are an injury away from a downgrade. a Hanrahan is 16 for 20 in close situations, and while not dramatically better than Bailey, Bard or Uehara, he's been good at starting the ninth and finishing it. Others may be able to do it, but then the seventh inning looks a bit weak, and they don't know if any of those three guys can take an increased workload. (Set Tazawa aside, unless you really need him to make the case).

 

The Sox in late July are tied for the second Wild Card spot, less than five games behind the division leader. What would trade Dempster and Hanrahan for -- and that assumes de la Rosa has given every reason to believe he can be at least as good as Dempster. The Brewers are (yet again) hanging in there, and they offer Mitch Haniger, a 2012 supplemental 1st round OF, for the pair. As the Sox, do you do it?

 

I think no, simply because it isn't worth the risk of failure. (And, of course with the money involved, that trade doesn't work for the Brewers.)

 

I'm not sure I can recall a team in the hunt every trading contributing depth, though there may be some injury crisis I'm forgetting.

[redsoxstiff]

I've read all of these opinions initially with the idea of adding a significantly helpful pov...
This it it...We have an excess of relievers and those left standing will help this team.
Whether Daniel returns full bore or is just serviceable or flops is no biggie...

We have built a strong bp...

[Rasputin]

Ras -- I wrote something similar in response to you in the Kalish thread.

 

But, if they need the bullpen to be a force (that is, they are in the hunt), do you really see them moving a contributing piece? Say Dempster is perfectly average in every way, no matter what stat you pull. That's puts him as the #4 starter (maybe #3 based on consistency, if it's there). de la Rosa is, then, an upgrade for #5 spot, but they are an injury away from a downgrade. a Hanrahan is 16 for 20 in close situations, and while not dramatically better than Bailey, Bard or Uehara, he's been good at starting the ninth and finishing it. Others may be able to do it, but then the seventh inning looks a bit weak, and they don't know if any of those three guys can take an increased workload. (Set Tazawa aside, unless you really need him to make the case).

 

The Sox in late July are tied for the second Wild Card spot, less than five games behind the division leader. What would trade Dempster and Hanrahan for -- and that assumes de la Rosa has given every reason to believe he can be at least as good as Dempster. The Brewers are (yet again) hanging in there, and they offer Mitch Haniger, a 2012 supplemental 1st round OF, for the pair. As the Sox, do you do it?

 

I think no, simply because it isn't worth the risk of failure. (And, of course with the money involved, that trade doesn't work for the Brewers.)

 

I'm not sure I can recall a team in the hunt every trading contributing depth, though there may be some injury crisis I'm forgetting.

 

A lot depends on the precise details. The difference between being tied for the wild card and being three games back with another team in between is pretty big.

 

I can easily see a situation where they're close enough that it makes sense to try to improve but not so close that it makes sense to spend big prospects to get it done. In a situation like that, I can see packaging a bullpen arm and some kind of prospect something and getting some help in left.

 

With the second wild card, there are going to be very, very few teams that are clearly out of it at the deadline. That should make it a sellers market and there's always a market for good bullpen arms.

[SoxScout]

Latest news

 

** Manager John Farrell said Thursday that it would be tough to envision Breslow (shoulder) being ready for Opening Day, Rob Bradford of WEEI Boston reports.

** Morales is experiencing some recurring tightness in his back and has been forced to slow down his throwing program, WEEI.com reports.

 

So, this is what we currently look like, I think:

 

CL RHP Joel Hanrahan
SU RHP Andrew Bailey
SU RHP Koji Uehara
SU RHP Junichi Tazawa

MID LHP Andrew Miller
LR RHP Alfredo Aceves
LR RHP Clay Mortensen
 

Disabled list

 

LHP Franklin Morales

LHP Craig Breslow

 

Minors

 

RHP Daniel Bard
RHP Alex Wilson

 

Mortensen gets the last spot being out of options, but would then probably be traded, barring injuries, pretty early in the season. Teams have reportedly been scouting him all spring. Breslow comes back, then decisions have to be made when Morales is able to pitch or if Bard gets off to a hot start.

[BCsMightyJoeYoung]

Latest news

 

** Manager John Farrell said Thursday that it would be tough to envision Breslow (shoulder) being ready for Opening Day, Rob Bradford of WEEI Boston reports.

** Morales is experiencing some recurring tightness in his back and has been forced to slow down his throwing program, WEEI.com reports.

 

So, this is what we currently look like, I think:

 

CL RHP Joel Hanrahan
SU RHP Andrew Bailey
SU RHP Koji Uehara
SU RHP Junichi Tazawa

MID LHP Andrew Miller
LR RHP Alfredo Aceves
LR RHP Clay Mortensen
 

Disabled list

 

LHP Franklin Morales

LHP Craig Breslow

 

Minors

 

RHP Daniel Bard
RHP Alex Wilson

 

Mortensen gets the last spot being out of options, but would then probably be traded, barring injuries, pretty early in the season. Teams have reportedly been scouting him all spring. Breslow comes back, then decisions have to be made when Morales is able to pitch or if Bard gets off to a hot start.

 

I'm starting to think the Sox are going to have a real problem here. Eventually they are going to have to get rid of some pretty good pitchers. If, by the last week of ST, Bard has demonstrated he's back on form I can't see them sending him down. They will have 10 quality MLB pitchers for 7 spots.  And that's not even including Wilson who is having a terrific ST. As mentioned somebody's always going to be on the DL - if not actually hurt.

 

So they will have to choose at least two of Mortenson, Aceves and Bailey one would think. Bailey should bring the most in return.  A package deal of Bailey, Mortenson and Salty should be enough to get a good LF. The problem is finding a team that needs bullpen help and a catcher.

 

Regardless of whether they find a trade partner a couple of BP arms are going to have to go .

Edited by BCsMightyJoeYoung, 10 March 2013 - 07:38 PM.

[Hokie Sox]

Aceves 

 

I'm starting to think the Sox are going to have a real problem here. Eventually they are going to have to get rid of some petty good pitchers. If, by the last week of ST, Bard has demonstrated he's back on form I can't see them sending him down. They will have 10 quality MLB pitchers for 7 spots.  And that's not even including Wilson who is having a terrific ST.As mentioned somebody's always going to be on the DL - if not actually hurt.

 

So they will have to choose at least two of Mortenson, Aceves and Bailey one would think. Bailey should bring the most in return.  A package deal of Bailey, Mortenson and Salty should be enough to get a good LF. The problem is finding a team that needs bullpen help and a catcher.

 

Regardless of whether they find a trade partner a couple of BP arms are going to have to go .

Aceves got in a brawl with the Canadians yesterday in the WBC, and was actually taken down by 1st base coach Larry Walker... no, I did not make that up.

 

I know he can be effective but he just seems like too much of a hothead/publicity figure and the act is growing old. 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I think Aceves and Mortensen are essentially interchangeable parts, so I think it would be pretty odd if they both end up on the 25-man at the expense of Bard and Wilson, who both look likely to be more effective (I realize Wilson is totally unproven at the ML level, but he's 26, he's been dominating AAA hitters, and he looks ready). 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I think Aceves and Mortensen are essentially interchangeable parts, so I think it would be pretty odd if they both end up on the 25-man at the expense of Bard and Wilson, who both look likely to be more effective (I realize Wilson is totally unproven at the ML level, but he's 26, he's been dominating AAA hitters, and he looks ready). 

 

I agree that Aceves and Mortensen are redundant, but the one advantage they provide over Bard and Wilson (and arguably every other reliever in the pen) is the ability to go multiple innings and even provide a spot start.  I think one of them makes the roster with Bard or Wilson, more likely Bard, while the other is either DFA or stashed on the DL with an injury.

[Clears Cleaver]

It's perhaps more likely that with Ortiz hurting and webster throwing well that the surplus bullpen arm is traded for a bat. Unless they want to start jbj (no chance) then this team is desperate for a lhh with power. Or anyone with power

[Rasputin]

It's perhaps more likely that with Ortiz hurting and webster throwing well that the surplus bullpen arm is traded for a bat. Unless they want to start jbj (no chance) then this team is desperate for a lhh with power. Or anyone with power

 

I don't think it makes any sense to spend resources on a short term solution to a short term problem. I'd much rather they spend the resources on a guy who isn't ready yet, but could be a long term piece, or a lottery ticket.

[Sprowl]

I can't agree that Aceves and Mortenson are equivalent -- Aceves' stuff is better, his track record of success is much longer, and Mortenson's fastball can get crushed when the batters recognize and lay off the changeup. Tropical Storm Alfredo is a legitimate bullpen asset. Mortenson is still auditioning for Human White Flag.

 

I think they'll keep both. The worst case is that it's because some pitcher gets hurt for real; the best case is the Hellenic flu.

[Toe Nash]

I agree that Aceves and Mortensen are redundant, but the one advantage they provide over Bard and Wilson (and arguably every other reliever in the pen) is the ability to go multiple innings and even provide a spot start.  I think one of them makes the roster with Bard or Wilson, more likely Bard, while the other is either DFA or stashed on the DL with an injury.

Wilson was solely a starter until last year and started 3 games last year. He had 59 IP in 39 relief appearances in AAA last year. He may not be fully stretched out, and he may be better as a reliever but I'd think he could give you more than one inning especially in mop-up duty.

 

Also, Morales proved he can start last year, obviously.

Edited by Toe Nash, 11 March 2013 - 07:12 AM.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Wilson was solely a starter until last year and started 3 games last year. He had 59 IP in 39 relief appearances in AAA last year. He may not be fully stretched out, and he may be better as a reliever but I'd think he could give you more than one inning especially in mop-up duty.

 

Also, Morales proved he can start last year, obviously.

 

I was more referring to Bard and Wilson not being stretched out for the role, of course.  Aceves and Mortensen have been used in that long relief role in the past...enough for it to be clear they're well suited for it.  Wilson, while having minor league history as a starter, hasn't shown enough to say one way or the other if he's better suited for long or short relief.

 

I left Morales out primarily because he wasn't on the list that sparked this line of discussion. He appears headed for the DL to start the season.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I can't agree that Aceves and Mortenson are equivalent -- Aceves' stuff is better, his track record of success is much longer, and Mortenson's fastball can get crushed when the batters recognize and lay off the changeup. Tropical Storm Alfredo is a legitimate bullpen asset. Mortenson is still auditioning for Human White Flag.

 

I didn't mean that they were equivalent in quality--you're right, Aceves is better (and therefore, really the only reason we should even be talking about keeping Mortensen is the fact that Aceves is batshit crazy). I meant that they are alike in their presumptive role, and in the characteristic that suits them for that role--the ability to go multiple innings and/or days. If both of those guys were typical, two-innings-max-and-then-give-him-a-day-off kind of relievers, there would be only a very weak case IMO for keeping Aceves over Bard or Wilson, and for Mortensen, no case at all. 

[joe dokes]

I didn't mean that they were equivalent in quality--you're right, Aceves is better (and therefore, really the only reason we should even be talking about keeping Mortensen is the fact that Aceves is batshit crazy). I meant that they are alike in their presumptive role, and in the characteristic that suits them for that role--the ability to go multiple innings and/or days. If both of those guys were typical, two-innings-max-and-then-give-him-a-day-off kind of relievers, there would be only a very weak case IMO for keeping Aceves over Bard or Wilson, and for Mortensen, no case at all. 

They both may be able to go multiple innnings, but as I recall, Mortensen had some problems with multiple days, while Aceves didn't.

[Hokie Sox]

They both may be able to go multiple innnings, but as I recall, Mortensen had some problems with multiple days, while Aceves didn't.

 

And while Aceves was able to go multiple days, he did, however, struggle with multiple personalities.

[seantoo]

What is going to burn my ass is the second guessers to the inevitible; a bullpen pitcher the Sox have right now will do well with another team after being released or traded for pennies on the dollar. To anyone who wants to bitch later offer your solutions now or 'stifle it Edith'! Even injuries or the Helenic flu is a short temporary solution, not an answer. I've resigned to that fact, since around December or so, that a bullpen member would end up having success elsewhere without the Sox getting a real return was a distinct possibility, especially now since it appears Bard is doing well.

 

And by offering a solution to say make a trade for a serviceable player does not cut it, offer actual candidates.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

While I agree with the inspiration for our post, that a reliever they have to move or let go will have some success elsewhere and people will complain, I don't think it's entirely fair to essentially say "predict the future or relinquish your right to talk about it later!"  Any one (or even a couple) of the current bullpen crop could be moved and the circumstances of that move could fall anywhere from "no market, dumped for pennies" to "team had an injury and a sudden glaring need, leveraged them for a good return."  Asking people to pin down what they would have done instead of a move that hasn't even happened yet seems to be asking too much.  Especially since even if people do what you ask and suggest actual names for trade partners, there will likely be no way to know if that player was ever really available for the reliever that poster is willing to move.

 

Maybe asking people to simply point out which relievers they really don't want to see traded or lost would be more fair, but then, hasn't that been the bulk of the discussion in this thread anyway?

[seantoo]

While I agree with the inspiration for our post, that a reliever they have to move or let go will have some success elsewhere and people will complain, I don't think it's entirely fair to essentially say "predict the future or relinquish your right to talk about it later!"  Any one (or even a couple) of the current bullpen crop could be moved and the circumstances of that move could fall anywhere from "no market, dumped for pennies" to "team had an injury and a sudden glaring need, leveraged them for a good return."  Asking people to pin down what they would have done instead of a move that hasn't even happened yet seems to be asking too much.  Especially since even if people do what you ask and suggest actual names for trade partners, there will likely be no way to know if that player was ever really available for the reliever that poster is willing to move.

 

Maybe asking people to simply point out which relievers they really don't want to see traded or lost would be more fair, but then, hasn't that been the bulk of the discussion in this thread anyway?

Fair enough. I know it's inevitable, that the second guessers that often are not even part of the original discussion until hindsite offers clarity, then act like they knew all along.

Allmost every year my biggest concern with the team is the bullpen this year it's the least of my concerns with the team. All things being even they should be among the best the league has to offer. Wether or not people here agree with the Sox and most teams most the time the players with options will be sent down because it gives the team control of assets for the longest period of time so when the inevitable injuries occur they have a solution without having to trade assest for the solution. Like the spazzy girl in the commercial says, "more is better we want more".

One more thought is to offer what areas of the team would you like to see the team trade for. For me in order of percieved need; it's a corner of'er, firstbase, or a starter.