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The 2013 Bullpen
#51
Posted 19 December 2012 - 08:18 PM
#52
Posted 19 December 2012 - 08:35 PM
#53
Posted 19 December 2012 - 08:37 PM
#54
Posted 20 December 2012 - 12:14 AM
Edited by Doctor G, 20 December 2012 - 12:17 AM.
#55
Posted 20 December 2012 - 12:22 AM
It could make sense if there are one or more bullpen arms going somewhere in the presumed to be upcoming Salty trade.
Or if they have something lined up to move Bailey. I'm looking at you Detroit.
#56
Posted 20 December 2012 - 03:41 AM
Or if they have something lined up to move Bailey. I'm looking at you Detroit.
I don't have a real burning desire to trade Bailey. I rather like having three guys I trust to get a save.
We really have the potential to have an outstanding bullpen, especially if Bard comes back.
Bailey, Tazawa, Uehara, Bard, Morales, Breslow, Aceves. Two lefties, one of whom can get righties out well. Two guys who can be reasonably expected to make a decent spot start. Three guys who can really close out games, and if Bard comes back, four.
#57
Posted 20 December 2012 - 08:42 AM
The more RPs you have who can close the better off you are. These guys are potential currency to pick up prospects at the trading deadline. There aren't too many established closers in the AL west or the NL west.With the cash invested in both LA teams set up men and closers might be a very hot item come 7/31.
So the Sox should trade prospect(s) now (ostensibly with a fungible low-cost AAAA arm who's out of options) to get a guy who's going to make ~$7M this year... To perform a job for which they already have several qualified candidates.... Because the more guys who can save games the better... Even for a team that won 69 games last year and is in the midst of a rebuilding process over multiple bridge years... So they can trade him 4 months into the season for... prospect(s).
Uhhh... ok.
Look, if they can somehow get the Pirates to take only out-of-options players (Mortensen, Melancon, Miller/Breslow) or true AAAA guys nobody gives a shit about (Beato, Carpenter), then the plan might make sense. But if closers are truly as valuable a commodity as you profess, there's no way Pittsburgh will settle for that bucket of tripe. More likely it'll require something closer to what Rudy suggested, and perhaps more. The odds of the Red Sox getting something >= Kalish+ at the deadline in exchange for a 2-month rental aren't that great.
#58
Posted 20 December 2012 - 09:18 AM
Not suggesting prospects, more like Morales Kalish type deal.So the Sox should trade prospect(s) now (ostensibly with a fungible low-cost AAAA arm who's out of options) to get a guy who's going to make ~$7M this year... To perform a job for which they already have several qualified candidates.... Because the more guys who can save games the better... Even for a team that won 69 games last year and is in the midst of a rebuilding process over multiple bridge years... So they can trade him 4 months into the season for... prospect(s).
Uhhh... ok.
Look, if they can somehow get the Pirates to take only out-of-options players (Mortensen, Melancon, Miller/Breslow) or true AAAA guys nobody gives a shit about (Beato, Carpenter), then the plan might make sense. But if closers are truly as valuable a commodity as you profess, there's no way Pittsburgh will settle for that bucket of tripe. More likely it'll require something closer to what Rudy suggested, and perhaps more. The odds of the Red Sox getting something >= Kalish+ at the deadline in exchange for a 2-month rental aren't that great.
#59
Posted 20 December 2012 - 10:21 AM
Or if they have something lined up to move Bailey. I'm looking at you Detroit.
They are inexplicably shopping Smyly in addition to Porcello. If we could get Smyly as our 6th starter for Bailey I'd strongly consider it.
#60
Posted 20 December 2012 - 11:47 AM
I
Not suggesting prospects, more like Morales Kalish type deal.
I'd rather have Morales than Hanrahan. Adding in Kalish is just nuts.
#61
Posted 20 December 2012 - 03:03 PM
Not suggesting prospects, more like Morales Kalish type deal.
You're kidding, right? You want to throw away a guy in Morales who's only in his 2nd year of arb, is arguably one of the Sox' two most versatile pitchers (with Aceves), and is under club control through 2014 -- PLUS a guy in Kalish who was BA's #5 Sox prospect for 2010, who due to injuries has been denied the chance to show what he can do in the majors on a sustained basis, still has options left, and is under club control through 2016 -- for four months' worth of a $7M pitcher because you think the club can trade him at the deadline for prospects worth more than the $4.7M in salary to Hanrahan AND the players they'd be giving up?
Leaving aside the risk that, like many pitchers switching divisions, Hanrahan could turn into a pumpkin against AL East lineups, this is insane.
Edited by mabrowndog, 20 December 2012 - 03:05 PM.
#62
Posted 22 December 2012 - 09:54 AM
The instability in the bullpen at he beginning of the 2012 if it is repeated in 2013 will have the same effect on the success that it did last year.
John Farrell experienced the same thing in Toronto last year.
#63
Posted 22 December 2012 - 10:07 AM
I'm still waiting for a reason why Hanrahan is likely to be appreciably better than Morales alone... never mind good enough to be worth him and Kalish plus the extra money he'll be paid.
Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 22 December 2012 - 10:08 AM.
#64
Posted 22 December 2012 - 01:29 PM
#65
Posted 22 December 2012 - 01:30 PM
Hanrahan's BB% rate doubled last year. It was largely a function of his Zone% dropping 5%.
His fastball velocity dropped by 1.2 mph last year.
He's 31, coming off a season where he put up negative WAR, will cost $7 million and will be a FA in 2014.
Unless we are trading him for minor league filler or a guy beyond #15 on the prospect list; pass.
#66
Posted 22 December 2012 - 01:30 PM
http://www.mlbtrader..._medium=twitter
If this doesn't either include a bullpen piece going back or lead to another trade, I'm not sure I see the point. And I don't think we have too many bullpen pieces I'd rather swap Hanrahan in for when you consider the difference in cost.
Meh.
#67
Posted 22 December 2012 - 01:38 PM
You mean the bullpen that had Alfredo Aceves closing games and some of worst luck (in the form of everyone performing as badly as could possibly have been projected at the same time) we've seen in a long time? You're seriously worried that this team is likely to repeat that kind of run early in the season and think that Hanrahan is the answer to prevent it? And what does Toronto's bullpen performance have to do with the 2013 Red Sox bullpen?
I'm still waiting for a reason why Hanrahan is likely to be appreciably better than Morales alone... never mind good enough to be worth him and Kalish plus the extra money he'll be paid.
I think it's pretty clear why people think Hanrahan is better than Morales. Just looking at the last two years, which happens to be significantly better than the rest of Morales' career numbers:
Hanrahan - 128.1 IP, 2.24 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 3.59 xFIP, 76 saves
Morales - 122.2 IP, 3.74 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 4.7 xFIP, 1 save
Hanrahan's history of being able to save games has to be appealing for the Red Sox given the health issues of Bailey and Uehara.
Edited by Edelpeddle, 22 December 2012 - 01:38 PM.
#68
Posted 22 December 2012 - 01:39 PM
#69
Posted 22 December 2012 - 01:40 PM
I acknowledge some of these points re: Hanrahan may have been made somewhere on the main board.
Hanrahan's BB% rate doubled last year. It was largely a function of his Zone% dropping 5%.
His fastball velocity dropped by 1.2 mph last year.
He's 31, coming off a season where he put up negative WAR, will cost $7 million and will be a FA in 2014.
Unless we are trading him for minor league filler or a guy beyond #15 on the prospect list; pass.
It's probably worth pointing out that his velocity last year (95.8) was actually higher than his average fastball velocity over the last six years (95.5). His fastball velocity in 2011 (97) appears to be an outlier, hence the major drop in velocity.
#70
Posted 22 December 2012 - 01:41 PM
Is anyone really comfortable with the idea of Andrew Bailey at the back of the bullpen?
I'm sure not comfortable. Hanrahan would be a nice addition if they want to be competitive.
#71
Posted 22 December 2012 - 01:44 PM
It's probably worth pointing out that his velocity last year (95.8) was actually higher than his average fastball velocity over the last six years (95.5). His fastball velocity in 2011 (97) appears to be an outlier, hence the major drop in velocity.
But then you can easily argue 2010 and 2011 were outliers in terms of performance. He might be throwing harder than pre-2010, but he was also putting up 4+ xFIPs then, too.
EDIT: If they are going to go and give up something for Hanrahan, I have no clue why they didn't just give Grilli (a much better pitcher last year) 2 years for the same price it would cost Hanrahan for one. Plus no prospects/pieces going back. Yeah he doesn't have "closing experience" but RP is so volatile that Hanrahan's 2011 balances out that + age difference.
Edited by czar, 22 December 2012 - 01:48 PM.
#72
Posted 22 December 2012 - 01:46 PM
#73
Posted 22 December 2012 - 01:53 PM
But then you can easily argue 2010 and 2011 were outliers in terms of performance. He might be throwing harder than pre-2010, but he was also putting up 4+ xFIPs then, too.
EDIT: If they are going to go and give up something for Hanrahan, I have no clue why they didn't just give Grilli (a much better pitcher last year) 2 years for the same price it would cost Hanrahan for one.
Look at his average FB velocities the last five seasons and try telling me 2011 is not a outlier and that his velocity in 2012 was abnormal for him: 95.3, 94.2, 95.9, 97, 95.8.
As for Hanrahan vs. Grilli, Grilli reportedly turned down more money to stay in Pittsburgh so it's impossible to know if he would have signed here peroid. And this is speculation, but it appears to me that the Red Sox were interested in Hanrahan because of his experience successfully closing games.
Edited by Edelpeddle, 22 December 2012 - 01:53 PM.
#74
Posted 22 December 2012 - 01:59 PM
I think it's pretty clear why people think Hanrahan is better than Morales. Just looking at the last two years, which happens to be significantly better than the rest of Morales' career numbers:
Hanrahan - 128.1 IP, 2.24 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 3.59 xFIP, 76 saves
Morales - 122.2 IP, 3.74 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 4.7 xFIP, 1 save
Hanrahan's history of being able to save games has to be appealing for the Red Sox given the health issues of Bailey and Uehara.
Hanrahan did that in the NL central. Morales did it in the AL East. Saves aren't a predictive stat and shouldn't be referenced when comparing the quality of two bullpen arms who aren't likely to be in save situations anyway, but I'll concede that the front office might place some value in having a backup closer on the roster. That said, in a vacuum Hanrahan has been a better reliever over the last two years, but this comparison doesn't happen in a vacuum. Hanrahan makes 7 million next year. Morales will probably make somewhere closer to 1.5. Morales is already on the roster. Hanrahan will cost trade pieces to acquire.
Considering the context of this potential trade and the costs surrounding both the acquisition and the salaries involved, I would rather have Morales. Having both, if this trade means sending out fungible minor leaguers, isn't a bad way to go but I still don't like how much money Hanrahan makes. Of course, it's not my money so I shouldn't complain much but the more they add to the 2013 salary, the less wiggle room they'll have to make mid season trades to address weaknesses if they think they have a shot at the playoffs.
The potential payoff doesn't quite seem worth the loss of flexibility to me.
Is anyone really comfortable with the idea of Andrew Bailey at the back of the bullpen?
Considering the presence of Uehara and the emergence of Tazawa las year, yeah, I'm pretty comfortable. If Bailey is healthy (yes, that's an "if" worth talking about) he'll be a good closer. If he's not, they do have options to slot in without having to go outside the organization. Hanrahan provides additional insurance there, but I'm a bit pessimistic about him coming from the NL to the AL.
#75
Posted 22 December 2012 - 01:59 PM
Look at his average FB velocities the last five seasons and try telling me 2011 is not a outlier and that his velocity in 2012 was abnormal for him: 95.3, 94.2, 95.9, 97, 95.8.
As for Hanrahan vs. Grilli, Grilli reportedly turned down more money to stay in Pittsburgh so it's impossible to know if he would have signed here peroid. And this is speculation, but it appears to me that the Red Sox were interested in Hanrahan because of his experience successfully closing games.
I know, and I argue that even if you acknowledge that, one of Hanrahan's two "elite" seasons was during the year with the "outlier" fastball velocity. So then you are left with one elite season with a 95.9 mph fastball as your crutch for him going forward.
And I have made it abundantly clear that I don't believe in paying a premium for guys with "closing experience " It would be especially obnoxious in this case, because Hanrahan would be (at best) 2nd in line for saves at the beginning of the season, and if he keeps pitching like he did in 2012, will likely fall behind guys like Tazawa and possibly Uehara as the season progresses. The Sox would be paying a premium for a hedge against a Bailey injury -- and not only that, but a hedge that could possibly evaporate as the season wears on.
EDIT: I should acknowledge that if the Sox give up next to nothing for him, then of course it's not a bad move. I'm more concerned with them moving someone like Kalish or Iglesias who has a chance to add value to the MLB roster in 2013 and beyond.
Edited by czar, 22 December 2012 - 02:03 PM.
#76
Posted 22 December 2012 - 02:07 PM
And I have made it abundantly clear that I don't believe in paying a premium for guys with "closing experience " It would be especially obnoxious in this case, because Hanrahan would be (at best) 2nd in line for saves at the beginning of the season, and if he keeps pitching like he did in 2012, will likely fall behind guys like Tazawa and possibly Uehara as the season progresses. The Sox would be paying a premium for a hedge against a Bailey injury -- and not only that, but a hedge that could possibly evaporate as the season wears on.
This is where I'm coming from. I'd go further and say he'd probably be third in line with a good chance to fall to 4th in line for saves with Uehara being 2nd in line and Tazawa having a decent chance to eclipse Hanrahan by June or so. So he's a hedge against, at best, injuries to both Bailey and Uehara. Personally, I'd like to see Tazawa second in line, but I imagine he'll have to continue his run of excellent pitching for a bit before that actually happens.
In any case, they'll be paying a premium for a guy who may not even end up the setup guy.
EDIT: I should acknowledge that if the Sox give up next to nothing for him, then of course it's not a bad move. I'm more concerned with them moving someone like Kalish or Iglesias who has a chance to add value to the MLB roster in 2013 and beyond.
The acquisition cost will determine where I fall on the spectrum of "awful deal" to "meh, whatever," but I have a hard time seeing a scenario where I'm more than ambivalent about it.
#77
Posted 22 December 2012 - 02:08 PM
Hanrahan did that in the NL central. Morales did it in the AL East. Saves aren't a predictive stat and shouldn't be referenced when comparing the quality of two bullpen arms who aren't likely to be in save situations anyway, but I'll concede that the front office might place some value in having a backup closer on the roster. That said, in a vacuum Hanrahan has been a better reliever over the last two years, but this comparison doesn't happen in a vacuum. Hanrahan makes 7 million next year. Morales will probably make somewhere closer to 1.5. Morales is already on the roster. Hanrahan will cost trade pieces to acquire.
Considering the context of this potential trade and the costs surrounding both the acquisition and the salaries involved, I would rather have Morales. Having both, if this trade means sending out fungible minor leaguers, isn't a bad way to go but I still don't like how much money Hanrahan makes. Of course, it's not my money so I shouldn't complain much but the more they add to the 2013 salary, the less wiggle room they'll have to make mid season trades to address weaknesses if they think they have a shot at the playoffs.
The potential payoff doesn't quite seem worth the loss of flexibility to me.
Considering the presence of Uehara and the emergence of Tazawa las year, yeah, I'm pretty comfortable. If Bailey is healthy (yes, that's an "if" worth talking about) he'll be a good closer. If he's not, they do have options to slot in without having to go outside the organization. Hanrahan provides additional insurance there, but I'm a bit pessimistic about him coming from the NL to the AL.
If the Red Sox acquire Hanrahan, he'd be the favorite to close games. You said you didn't understand why people thought Hanrahan was a better pitcher than Morals and I answered the question, there was no pretense of cost vs. production. I have no problem dumping Morales as his peripherals suggest he's been pretty lucky the last two seasons, he's never really been counted on to pitch high leverage innings consistently and I wouldn't trust him in those innings given his abnormally high home run rates. There may be more to this than we're seeing though, it's possible this could lead to another trade or that another Red Sox reliever has an injury we're unaware of.
#78
Posted 22 December 2012 - 02:10 PM
#79
Posted 22 December 2012 - 02:12 PM
Ken Rosenthal
#80
Posted 22 December 2012 - 02:13 PM
#81
Posted 22 December 2012 - 02:14 PM
#82
Posted 22 December 2012 - 02:17 PM
Is anyone really comfortable with the idea of Andrew Bailey at the back of the bullpen?
And by Andrew Bailey, you mean Andrew Bailey, Junichi Tazawa, and Koji Uehara, and the answer isn't "yes" it's "Fuck yes, WTF kind of dumbass question is that?"
#83
Posted 22 December 2012 - 02:18 PM
Rudy P. might be on to something suggesting a Kalish/Melancon type package. Not sure I like the looks of something like that.
#84
Posted 22 December 2012 - 02:21 PM
#85
Posted 22 December 2012 - 02:22 PM
I maintain that it will be Hanrahan for Kalish and Melancon. Which would be a terrible buy high / sell low / pay more combo. Who else on the roster makes sense? Morales, perhaps. I don't really see anyone else- they don't need Salty.
I don't think there is any evidence pointing this direction, but that would be a horrible, horrible trade.
Names like Pimentel and Gomez and maybe Alex Wilson are in the right ballpark instead.
#86
Posted 22 December 2012 - 02:22 PM
And by Andrew Bailey, you mean Andrew Bailey, Junichi Tazawa, and Koji Uehara, and the answer isn't "yes" it's "Fuck yes, WTF kind of dumbass question is that?"
It appears as if more than one dumbass politely disagrees.
#87
Posted 22 December 2012 - 02:23 PM
And by Andrew Bailey, you mean Andrew Bailey, Junichi Tazawa, and Koji Uehara, and the answer isn't "yes" it's "Fuck yes, WTF kind of dumbass question is that?"
I'm as comfortable as can be with Uehara and Tazawa as set-up men, but I doubt either is being expected to close games. My concern isn't those two, my concern is the performance of Andrew Bailey in the 9th inning going forward.
#88
Posted 22 December 2012 - 02:24 PM
I maintain that it will be Hanrahan for Kalish and Melancon. Which would be a terrible buy high / sell low / pay more combo. Who else on the roster makes sense? Morales, perhaps. I don't really see anyone else- they don't need Salty.
And we don't need Hanrahan.
If we were to give up Kalish and Melancon, I'd be pretty fucking pissed.
#89
Posted 22 December 2012 - 02:27 PM
I'm as comfortable as can be with Uehara and Tazawa as set-up men, but I doubt either is being expected to close games. My concern isn't those two, my concern is the performance of Andrew Bailey in the 9th inning going forward.
Yes, that's my concern as well. Tazawa has 72 major league innings and one major league save and Uehara given his age and past injury concerns probably shouldn't be used too often in back-to-back games if we want to get the most out of him. I see him more suited to a complimentary role than a full-time closer or set up man.
#90
Posted 22 December 2012 - 02:27 PM
I'm as comfortable as can be with Uehara and Tazawa as set-up men, but I doubt either is being expected to close games. My concern isn't those two, my concern is the performance of Andrew Bailey in the 9th inning going forward.
So the ninth inning is magic now?
#91
Posted 22 December 2012 - 02:29 PM
So the ninth inning is magic now?
It's starting to get to the point where I can't tell if you're saying things simply to be snarky, or if you actually believe them. Would you support a closer by committee?
Edited by Edelpeddle, 22 December 2012 - 02:29 PM.
#92
Posted 22 December 2012 - 02:30 PM
Honestly, if this team believes so strongly in the mystical qualities of pitchers who've proven they could get outs in the ninth inning, they should have given Papelbon the money he was asking for.
#93
Posted 22 December 2012 - 02:30 PM
If the Red Sox acquire Hanrahan, he'd be the favorite to close games. You said you didn't understand why people thought Hanrahan was a better pitcher than Morals and I answered the question, there was no pretense of cost vs. production.
First off, you are incorrect that I did not specifically include salary differences or acquisition costs. Here's my post.
You mean the bullpen that had Alfredo Aceves closing games and some of worst luck (in the form of everyone performing as badly as could possibly have been projected at the same time) we've seen in a long time? You're seriously worried that this team is likely to repeat that kind of run early in the season and think that Hanrahan is the answer to prevent it? And what does Toronto's bullpen performance have to do with the 2013 Red Sox bullpen?
I'm still waiting for a reason why Hanrahan is likely to be appreciably better than Morales alone... never mind good enough to be worth him and Kalish plus the extra money he'll be paid.
As for the rest of your post...
I have no problem dumping Morales as his peripherals suggest he's been pretty lucky the last two seasons, he's never really been counted on to pitch high leverage innings consistently and I wouldn't trust him in those innings given his abnormally high home run rates.
His peripherals include an 8.16 and an 8.96 k/9 in those last two years and those home run rates are well above his career average which actually suggests some poor luck. HR/FB rates are fluky. His BABIPs of .272 and .268 are a bit lower than his career rate of .288, but he's always been a lower than average BABIP type of reliever. I wouldn't expect a huge regression there.
There may be more to this than we're seeing though, it's possible this could lead to another trade or that another Red Sox reliever has an injury we're unaware of.
Sure, and if reports of another trade or an injury surface, this will make more sense in hindsight, but for now it's a bit of a head scratcher.
#94
Posted 22 December 2012 - 02:31 PM
So the ninth inning is magic now?
Ask Alfredo Aceves if there's a difference pitching in the 9th.
#95
Posted 22 December 2012 - 02:32 PM
If your strategy is to build a team whose mission can turn on a dime from "compete in 2013" to "get ready to compete in 2014," having a really deep bullpen makes some sense as a priority. Seems like there's always a seller's market for relievers come July.
Look at Baltimore last year. That bullpen was ridiculously deep, and basically led them to the playoffs.
A crapshoot obviously, but a deep bullpen stocked with established talent/upside could really help this team compete.
#96
Posted 22 December 2012 - 02:35 PM
Honestly, if this team believes so strongly in the mystical qualities of pitchers who've proven they could get outs in the ninth inning, they should have given Papelbon the money he was asking for.
Papelbon, Reddick, and Lowrie will make $15-$16M this year. Victorino, Hanrahan. and Drew will make about $30M.
#97
Posted 22 December 2012 - 02:36 PM
Ask Alfredo Aceves if there's a difference pitching in the 9th.
8 BS for him last year...four coming when he entered the game in the 8th, four when he entered the game in the 9th or later.
Aceves had a shitty year in general. It didn't necessarily come down to the fact that he was pitching in the 9th a lot.
#98
Posted 22 December 2012 - 02:36 PM
It's starting to get to the point where I can't tell if you're saying things simply to be snarky, or if you actually believe them. Would you support a closer by committee?
That would depend on what you actually mean by that because as far as I can tell, most people who use that phrase don't actually know what they mean by it.
What I meant by "So the ninth inning is magic now?" is that it is completely ridiculous to trust someone as a setup man but not as a closer. It's the same job with one pathetically trivial cosmetic difference. The Setup Man often pitches more and higher leverage innings than The Closer .
I would trust any one of these guys with high leverage innings in late game situations be it the 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, or thirty-fourth and if Bard were to get his head on straight, that would be four guys. If you don't trust Uehara to pitch back to back games, that's fine, with three or four guys you trust in those roles, you don't need him to.
Were I the manager, I'd tell them all to be ready from the 6th inning onward.
I assume that Farrell would annoint one the closer and the others would be ready from the 6th inning onward.
#99
Posted 22 December 2012 - 02:36 PM
It appears as if more than one dumbass politely disagrees.
Politely disagree too.
Let's see what's going before getting too worked up.
(Plus Boston loves Irish guys! Ryan Sweeney and Larry McBirdrahan, come to mind)
#100
Posted 22 December 2012 - 02:37 PM
Look at Baltimore last year. That bullpen was ridiculously deep, and basically led them to the playoffs.
A crapshoot obviously, but a deep bullpen stocked with established talent/upside could really help this team compete.
Considering how close the AL East is supposed to be this year, I think a bullpen could make a significant difference. The difference between a .500 team (which is what we probably are at this point) and a 90 win team that almost certainly makes the playoffs under the new system, is nine games. And if the strategy doesn't work and we're not competitive, Hanrahan could probably net a couple prospects from a desperate team that is cntending.
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