582 replies to this topic

[mabrowndog]

There hasn't been a post in a thread with the word "bullpen" in the title since May. Time to talk about something other than the rotation, OF, 1B, SS, catcher, manager and coaches that have consumed everyone's attention of late.

The conventional wisdom seems to be that there's plenty of depth in the pen, but I see more instability than depth. And that means more question marks than firm answers.

Here's a rough guess at the current depth chart (# - out of options, CL = closer, S = setup, M = middle/long relief, SW = swingman, LH = lefty specialist):

CL - Bailey
S8 - Aceves
S7 - Bard
M1 - Tazawa
M2 - Mortensen#
SW - Morales#
LH1 - Miller#
LH2 - Breslow#

AAA - Melancon#, Beato, A. Wilson, C. Carpenter, Fields

* Should the Sox unload Bailey, and will they? If so, who closes? A system arm (Aceves again?), a FA signing (Brian Wilson?), or a trade acquisition?

* If Bailey stays, what can we expect in terms of health and performance?

* Can Farrell & Nieves solve the Daniel Bard conundrum and rescue him from disaster?

* Will Afredo Aceves return to being his ass-kicking, mentally tough, versatile self and pitch consistently after a season under a complete douchebag of a manager in which he failed to contain his emotions, imploding both on and off the mound?

* Does Boston re-sign Vicente Padilla? It's been a month since anything hit the wires, which was a Cafardo report that the Sox "haven't ruled it out" but Padilla was likely holding out for guaranteed money. It also mentioned the Angels were kicking the tires on him.

* Word from PeteAbe is Farrell plans to have Franklin Morales head into spring camp prepared as a starter. How does this affect the set-up corps?

* What will be the roles for Junichi Tazawa (one of the few consistently bright spots last season), Clay Mortensen (flashes of brilliance despite a tendency for gopher balls) and Mark Melancon (nice K/BB, but 8 HR in 45 IP)? Will the first two be entrusted with higher-leverage innings, or will they work mainly in middle relief?

* Was 2012 the official coming out of The Real Andrew Miller? Or was it the peak-year aberration in an otherwise frustrating and injury-riddled career?

* With Morales a rotation possibility, are Craig Breslow and Miller sufficient options from the left side? Do they bring back Rich Hill (out of options) on a minor league deal?

* Does Alex Wilson step up from AAA and show signs of fulfilling his promise?

* If Josh Fields somehow survives the Rule 5 draft, what might we see from him?

* With last spring's bone spur elbow surgery well behind him, can Chris Carpenter contribute meaningful innings for the big club? Or is he merely this year's Michael Bowden roster filler, destined to ride the AAA shuttle as the emergency 7th/8th arm in the pen?

* Does Pedro Beato bring anything to the table? Or is he Carpenter's caddie?

* Do the Sox re-sign Scott Atchison (out of options)?

* With Soria, Madsen, and a slew of other front-end relief arms now off the FA market, who else should/will the Sox look into signing?

[bombdiggz]

Lets hope that management doesn't try yet again to nail Aceves down into a role in which he is expected to come in get three outs and leave. His skill set and value to the team wasn't maximized by being asked to pitch the ninth and it surely isn't going to be maximized by asking him to pitch the eighth (regularly).

Let's use him in a similar pattern as we did in 2011.

[Rasputin]

I think the reason there hasn't been much talk is that the bullpen appears to be the most stable element of the team.

Between Bailey and Tazawa and maybe Bard, I'm good with the end of the game.

Morales and Aceves can easily handle the swing duties.

Miller and Breslow are fine with lefties.

Hell, three lefties, with two of them able to get righties out okay is to die for.

[Cellar-Door]

I think the reason there hasn't been much talk is that the bullpen appears to be the most stable element of the team.

Between Bailey and Tazawa and maybe Bard, I'm good with the end of the game.

Morales and Aceves can easily handle the swing duties.

Miller and Breslow are fine with lefties.

Hell, three lefties, with two of them able to get righties out okay is to die for.

I think there is also a real chance that when Melancon's HR rate slides back to something approaching his career number(or at leats closer to league average) he'll be a perfectly decent bullpen arm.

[Hee-Seop's Fable]

If the Sox could distill all of their question marks down into four reliable arms they'd be in great shape, but given the sample size, ten guys with 40% chances for success aren't going to boil down to four good relievers often enough for comfort.

Aceves is the one I know least of all what to expect from. In 2011 when he was so indispensable I'll go out on a limb and say it was because he was hell bent on establishing a role for himself as a valuable major league pitcher here, worthy of a chance to start. He's proven he's a volatile guy last year with his frustration not getting that starting job, then more so when he lost his closing role. If he's plugged back in to a set up role, even if it's under a much steadier manager in Farrell, how do we know he'll settle in at all the way he did two years before? He strikes me as someone who thrives when he's fighting for something meaningful to him- that could be winning and it could be a bigger role- but someone who's a loose cannon when he's asked to accept something he's convinced himself is below him. And we have no way of knowing how he'll react under Farrell as a relief ace. Call that psycho babble, but he's a great example of someone who can be vastly different than the sum of his stuff, depending on how he feels about committing himself fully to his role. How the hell does anyone forecast how good he'll be as Swiss Army Knife relief ace in 2013, even if that's obviously what he was born to do?

[Sprowl]

I expect that both Rich Hill and Scott Atchison will sign minor-league offers, spend several months in the major-league bullpen, and, regrettably, suffer further elbow injuries. Those are two wicked sliders for platoon situations.

[SoxScout]

* Can Farrell & Nieves solve the Daniel Bard conundrum and rescue him from disaster?

Who knows, but:



This is the thing that I don't understand, Bard's fastball isn't going to be magically fixed by Farrell. He is going to show up throwing 96 or he isn't. When he came back up last season and was still throwing 92 that's when I officially got frightened that he might be permanently a new pitcher.

I'm sure you can turn 92 and a good slider into a good pitcher, but if he shows up without the gas, then it's a big time worry.

I expect Melancon to be a good 6-7 guy and there is obviously a lot of hope surrounding Tazawa. Looking at his repertoire and PFX, I don't know how he managed a 13.9% SwStr%, so watching if that can be kept anywhere in the same neighborhood will be interesting.

Edited by SoxScout, 05 December 2012 - 05:09 PM.

[Sprowl]

I expect Melancon to be a good 6-7 guy and there is obviously a lot of hope surrounding Tazawa. Looking at his repertoire and PFX, I don't know how he managed a 13.9% SwStr%, so watching if that can be kept anywhere in the same neighborhood will be interesting.

It looks to me that the extra 2 mph of velocity on the fastball made his split-change a much more effective pitch against the opposite-handed batter (25% whiff rate vs. LHB, per TexasLeaguers). His command was as good as advertised, and his velocity was much better.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Regarding Melancon, what do folks make of his bases empty / runners on splits?

Empty: 226 / 291 / 311; 21% K, 6% BB, 1.3% HR
Runners On: 256 / 341 / 429; 20% K, 11% BB, 3.2% HR

[Cellar-Door]

Regarding Melancon, what do folks make of his bases empty / runners on splits?

Empty: 226 / 291 / 311; 21% K, 6% BB, 1.3% HR
Runners On: 256 / 341 / 429; 20% K, 11% BB, 3.2% HR

It's almost all from last year looking at his year by year splits. He was better with men on than bases empty in 2011 and 2011 accounts for almost half his career batters faced.

[Corsi]

Red Sox interested in RH reliever Koji Uehara, 37, who had a 1.75 ERA and a 0.639 WHIP in 37 games for Texas. He K'd 43 and walked three.

https://twitter.com/...740850237714435

[Greg29fan]

I'd like to get Uehara in the bullpen. He has a proven track record of success in the AL East while he was pitching for Baltimore and can handle just about any role you throw him in - long man, middle relief, set up, he even had 13 saves one year.

[jsinger121]

Koji Uehara signs a 1 year deal with the Red Sox.

http://rangersblog.d...h-red-sox.html/

[Derek's Friend]

Finally!! This is the only move this off-season that has made sense to me.

[Corsi]

Terrific signing. The guy hasn't had a WHIP above 0.77 since 2009.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I love Uehara, but he fills a hole we really didn't have, so to me the signing suggests a deal impending with somebody like Bard involved.

[BoSoxFink]

I love Uehara, but he fills a hole we really didn't have, so to me the signing suggests a deal impending with somebody like Bard involved.

Ehhhhh you can always use god bullpen arms. I don't think this signifies a deal at all.

[SoxScout]

There has been a lot of Koji Uehara man-love on this board over the last few years. Easily an A signing.

Over his last 101 innings pitched, Uehara has a 0.69 WHIP and 10.7 strikeout to walk ratio.

Edited by SoxScout, 06 December 2012 - 01:05 PM.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I love Uehara, but he fills a hole we really didn't have, so to me the signing suggests a deal impending with somebody like Bard involved.

Agree with that. He gives them three lefty relievers and that's not even accounting for Morales. I don't know if Bard is necessarily the guy on the trade block, but somebody must be.

[sackamano]

He's a lefty?

[JohntheBaptist]

Agree with that. He gives them three lefty relievers and that's not even accounting for Morales. I don't know if Bard is necessarily the guy on the trade block, but somebody must be.

Koji's a RHP.

Love this too--between Tazawa emerging, this and the overall depth, the bullpen really looks like it could be a strength with some luck with health.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Koji's a RHP.

Love this too--between Tazawa emerging, this and the overall depth, the bullpen really looks like it could be a strength with some luck with health.

That's what I get for believing what Bobby Valentine tells me. Nevermind, carry on with the Uehara sploogefest.

Actually, I have to blame Edes since his was the first report I saw of the signing.

Edited by Red(s)HawksFan, 06 December 2012 - 02:49 PM.

[ElcaballitoMVP]

Agree with that. He gives them three lefty relievers and that's not even accounting for Morales. I don't know if Bard is necessarily the guy on the trade block, but somebody must be.

Uehara is a righty. And I'm not sure we need to be reading into this deal all that much. I don't think this means Bard is on his way out. I think this is more of a hedge in case Farrell can't fix Bard.

[Yo La Tengo]

Looks like his right lat strain was fully healed by the end of last summer, as he pitched from August 26th through the end of the season. Didn't give up an earned run from September forward and finished the season facing three Baltimore batters and striking out all three. If healthy, which appears to be the case, this looks like a very solid signing.

[Yo La Tengo]

In 2012:

Right handed batters: .125 .155 .214 .369
Left handed batters: .188 .197 .348 .545

[SoxScout]

Looks like his right lat strain was fully healed by the end of last summer, as he pitched from August 26th through the end of the season. Didn't give up an earned run from September forward and finished the season facing three Baltimore batters and striking out all three. If healthy, which appears to be the case, this looks like a very solid signing.

video of that appearance: http://mlb.mlb.com/v...338865&c_id=mlb

splitty city

Edited by SoxScout, 06 December 2012 - 01:22 PM.

[mabrowndog]

The Sox had 38 players on their 40-man after officially announcing the Gomes signing. Napoli, Victorino and Uehara bring them to 41, which will require a corresponding trade or DFA to get back to 40.

IMO this significantly reduces the odds of Melancon heading north with the club in April, and I wouldn't be surprised if he's the one who gets cut loose if the above move is a DFA. Beato and Carpenter have options left, Melancon has none.

Edited by mabrowndog, 06 December 2012 - 01:23 PM.

[Rovin Romine]

Per the initial post in this thread, Bailey, Aceves, Bard and Tazawa have options remaining - and the last two are the only ones who are likely to bounce back and forth between Pawtucket. If Melancon comes up, it's another fixed spot in the bullpen. I *really* like the signing, but it seems we'll probably be trading someone at some point - too many arms without options in the mix.

[Drek717]

I love Uehara, but he fills a hole we really didn't have, so to me the signing suggests a deal impending with somebody like Bard involved.

I don't know, if a reliever with the track record of Uehara is willing to relocate on a one year deal why wouldn't we do it?

He's the best reliever on the team at this point but probably doesn't expect to close. That's perfect. If Tazawa realizes the promise he displayed last season we've got two guys who can slam the door shut and won't bitch about saves. I'd honestly be up for signing Brian Wilson too so he can compete with Bailey for the closer's job, since Bailey's health is such a question mark and he obviously didn't impress in the limited amount of games he pitched in last year.

Use one of Bard's two options and have him closing games in AAA to start the season. If he regains his effectiveness then we can talk about fitting him on the 25 man roster. Until then plan like he won't be around. Don't trade him because his value is near zero now and his upside is huge, but in no way should he be penciled in for the 25 man roster when he's got options remaining.

[mabrowndog]

Regarding Wilson, I doubt he signs anywhere without assurances that he is THE closer once healthy, not just given a chance to compete for the job. For him, 2013 will be all about building market value for a multi-year deal, and showing suitors that he can still slam the door by racking saves will be critical to that end. If the Sox don't trade Bailey, I doubt he'll ink a deal here.

[mabrowndog]

A revised guess at the current depth chart:

CL - Bailey
S8 - Uehara
S7 - Aceves
M1 - Tazawa
M2 - Mortensen#
SW - Morales#
LH1 - Miller#
LH2 - Breslow#

AAA - Bard, Melancon#, Beato, A. Wilson, C. Carpenter

Edited by mabrowndog, 06 December 2012 - 01:51 PM.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

A revised guess at the current depth chart:

CL - Bailey
S8 - Uehara
S7 - Aceves
M1 - Tazawa
M2 - Mortensen#
SW - Morales#
LH1 - Miller#
LH2 - Breslow#

AAA - Bard, Melancon#, Beato, A. Wilson, C. Carpenter

I can't see them going with an 8 man pen and thus leaving them with a 3 man bench. Drop Mortensen and I think you have Bingo.

[mabrowndog]

Yeah, that was confusing on my end, so my bad. I only listed 8 guys to account for the (unlikely) event Morales ends up in the rotation. If he doesn't, then I agree Mort would indeed be shipped down or out.

[Rasputin]

A revised guess at the current depth chart:

CL - Bailey
S8 - Uehara
S7 - Aceves
M1 - Tazawa
M2 - Mortensen#
SW - Morales#
LH1 - Miller#
LH2 - Breslow#

AAA - Bard, Melancon#, Beato, A. Wilson, C. Carpenter

Acevedo should not be getting late innings over Tazawa. That Tazawa/Uehara/Bailey troika should be able to give us a lot of six inning games.

The lineup looks to be okay especially if Ellsbury does something.

If the rotation does anything at all that's a pretty decent team.

[Drek717]

Acevedo should not be getting late innings over Tazawa. That Tazawa/Uehara/Bailey troika should be able to give us a lot of six inning games.

The lineup looks to be okay especially if Ellsbury does something.

If the rotation does anything at all that's a pretty decent team.

Hell, if Bard bounces back the quartet of Bailey, Bard, Tazawa, and Uehara could take turns for days off and make every game a whole lot shorter affair.

Aceves back to doing his rubber armed bit as the long man.

Breslow and Miller as the lefty specialists.

Go into camp with Morales competing for a rotation spot, Mortensen and Melancon competing for the last bullpen spot that Bard will hopefully take back by early June. Be ready to make some trades based on who looks best come the spring. I'm sure even come spring training it won't be hard to move one of the three lefty relievers we have (assuming Morales fails to win a starting job), especially since we'll also likely have Rich Hill stashed in AAA again.

Edited by Drek717, 06 December 2012 - 04:35 PM.

[nothumb]

I was on board until the last line. Please let's not trade anyone on the premise that the electrical tape and bubble gum holding Rich Hill together is going to make it through more than 20 innings. Love the guy, but whatever we get from him has to be considered a bonus.

[Edelpeddle]

This is the best bullpen arm we've acquired in quite some time. I was worried with everything else going on, we'd roll the dice with the bullpen arms we have. Uehera provides some much needed insurance should Bailey get hurt again, the league adjust to Tazawa, Melancon not turn things around, etc.

[BosRedSox5]

Surprised to see Melancon and Bard on everyone's shit list. Bard doesn't turn 28 until June, and I don't think one injury plagued season takes him out of consideration. If he doesn't win a spot on the team out of Spring Training I'd be shocked. Same with Melancon. He's only a few months older, and he was very successful up until last season. He suffered some terrible luck last season, lots of homers, but all in all, his peripherals weren't bad. I'd expectUehara, Bard and Melancon to all be competing for innings late in the game.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Surprised to see Melancon and Bard on everyone's shit list. Bard doesn't turn 28 until June, and I don't think one injury plagued season takes him out of consideration. If he doesn't win a spot on the team out of Spring Training I'd be shocked. Same with Melancon. He's only a few months older, and he was very successful up until last season. He suffered some terrible luck last season, lots of homers, but all in all, his peripherals weren't bad. I'd expectUehara, Bard and Melancon to all be competing for innings late in the game.

Did I miss something? When has Bard been on the DL at all in his big league career? Granted, it might be a relief to find out that he was dealing with some sort of nagging injury throughout the 2012 season, since it might explain the otherwise inexplicable loss of both velocity and command he experienced. But he and the team have been fairly steadfast in insisting he was and is not hurt, so I think he is justifiably, at best, a question mark to be a member of the big league bullpen entering the 2013 season, let alone a key contributor.

[Jed Zeppelin]

edit: Beaten to it

Edited by Jed Zeppelin, 10 December 2012 - 06:33 PM.

[Rasputin]

Did I miss something? When has Bard been on the DL at all in his big league career? Granted, it might be a relief to find out that he was dealing with some sort of nagging injury throughout the 2012 season, since it might explain the otherwise inexplicable loss of both velocity and command he experienced. But he and the team have been fairly steadfast in insisting he was and is not hurt, so I think he is justifiably, at best, a question mark to be a member of the big league bullpen entering the 2013 season, let alone a key contributor.

It's not like injured and forever questionable are the only two options. I think it's more likely than not that Bard is a useful reliever going forward. Whether he's part of the late inning shut down corps or not, I dunno, but with Uehara, Tazawa, and Bailey, Bard's shut-downness isn't a necessity, it's a luxury.

[Rough Carrigan]

I'd love to see them do something interesting with Tazawa. He was perhaps the single best performer on the pitching staff last year. And it didn't look like a BABIP induced fluke. He was throwing harder than we'd ever seen him throw (95-96) and flashing a nasty splitter. He walked like 1 guy per 9 ip and struck out a batter an inning. He clearly looked better than Bailey once Bailey came back off the DL. Can he go back to starting, is that even a possibility? If he stays a reliever and they're not going to make him the closer, could they do like a few teams have done where you have the nominal closer but the real star of the bullpen is a fireman who gets used all around the last half of a game? I would hate to see the team's best pitcher be used either in middle relief just because he can go more than one inning or stuck as an 8th inning setup guy who's better than the 9th inning guy who follows him.

Edited by Rough Carrigan, 10 December 2012 - 07:35 PM.

[gammoseditor]

John Farrell went out of his way in an interview with EEI to point out Tazawa as someone he has really been impressed by. I think it's safe to say that he's going to be given a chance to show that how he ended last season wasn't a fluke, and that if he looks just as good his innings won't be wasted in low leverage situations.

[maufman]

I'd love to see them do something interesting with Tazawa. He was perhaps the single best performer on the pitching staff last year. And it didn't look like a BABIP induced fluke. He was throwing harder than we'd ever seen him throw (95-96) and flashing a nasty splitter. He walked like 1 guy per 9 ip and struck out a batter an inning. He clearly looked better than Bailey once Bailey came back off the DL. Can he go back to starting, is that even a possibility? If he stays a reliever and they're not going to make him the closer, could they do like a few teams have done where you have the nominal closer but the real star of the bullpen is a fireman who gets used all around the last half of a game? I would hate to see the team's best pitcher be used either in middle relief just because he can go more than one inning or stuck as an 8th inning setup guy who's better than the 9th inning guy who follows him.

Iirc, Bard ended up with a higher leverage index than Papelbon each of the two years they handled the 8th and 9th, respectively. The "relief ace" role is ideal on paper, but if relievers need roles to thrive, you could do a lot worse than to have your best reliever pitching the 8th.

[Rough Carrigan]

Iirc, Bard ended up with a higher leverage index than Papelbon each of the two years they handled the 8th and 9th, respectively. The "relief ace" role is ideal on paper, but if relievers need roles to thrive, you could do a lot worse than to have your best reliever pitching the 8th.

Oh sure. What I meant to say was to be rigidly slotted into just the 8th inning. I don't think they'll do it that way. As you noted, they didn't use Bard like that when he was an excellent reliever, so I'm probably worried over nothing to think they'll waste their best pitcher. The other example, of what I'm thinking of was those 2007 Indians who had a figurehead closer, Joe Borowski who got 45 saves while the clear ace of their pen was Rafael Bettancourt. The difference between Bailey and Tazawa isn't likely to be that stark but if Bailey stays and he's the closer, then, fine let him be the figurehead closer.

[Corsi]

Sox and Pirates talking Hanrahan per CBS Sports

http://www.cbssports...closer-hanrahan

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Sox and Pirates talking Hanrahan per CBS Sports

http://www.cbssports...closer-hanrahan

ERA is pretty, but a 4.45 FIP and a 4.28 xFIP mean he'd probably be best suited for almost exclusively low leverage innings when put into the context of pitching in the AL and the arms the Sox already have in the pen. I hope the cost isn't going to be high... and by high, I mean Salty.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 19 December 2012 - 07:03 PM.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Sox and Pirates talking Hanrahan per CBS Sports

http://www.cbssports...closer-hanrahan

Reads like Heyman is throwing crap against the wall. Red Sox may be offering a package of "multiple players, including a young pitcher"? No names, just a nebulous package with a mystery young pitcher included. I'm sure someone will come in with a crack about Ben overpaying for another reliever in a trade, but acquiring Hanrahan with the package Heyman describes (even if has no specifics) would seem to run counter to everything they've done thus far this winter.

[Rudy Pemberton]

How in the world is Hanrahan a fit with the Red Sox? I guess it would add to their "deep depth" but would be a curious move, given that bullpen hardly seems like an area where they should be giving up assets to acquire players not much better than what they have.

[mabrowndog]

Hanrahan is also 3rd-year arb eligible this winter after making $1.4M and 4.1M the past two seasons. MLBTR projects him at just under $7M. Then he's a free agent at season's end.

Like the Sox are going to give up even a modicum of value for such a unique privilege.