369 replies to this topic

[Corsi]

Red Sox front runners on Shane Victorino. Offered three year $38 mill deal.

https://twitter.com/...070017718702081

Edited by Corsi, 04 December 2012 - 05:30 PM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

That strikes me as a particularly hideous deal.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I really hope this is Cafardo being his usual jackass self and throwing some shit at the wall. That would be a terrible deal for a guy who can't hit righties anymore.

[TheYellowDart5]

3/$38M for a 32-year-old guy with a .704 OPS last season who can't hit RHP any more. That had better be a massive joke on Cherington's part or a massive typo on Cafardo's part.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I just threw up. So much goodwill since the Punto trade flushed away so quickly.

(null)

[Corsi]

If true, can someone explain this to me? I get that Cherington is trying to change the clubhouse culture, but why is he getting the same deal as Napoli, basically?

The only way I understand this is if we're signing him to play CF and we have a deal in place for Ellsbury. Otherwise, I don't see the point.

Edited by Corsi, 04 December 2012 - 04:28 PM.

[Laser Show]

I had begun to regain faith in this organization's direction. It will be gone once more if this happens. Giving Kalish the job outright would be better.

[TheYellowDart5]

That said, if that offer really is on the table and Victorino hasn't taken it already, either the Indians are frantically out-stupiding the Red Sox with an even worse offer, or Victorino's agent is too drunk to pick up the phone.

[bosox1025]

If this were a real offer, Victorino would no longer be a free agent.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I agree Corsi. Awful for RF. even if moving Ellsbury I'd rather they had gone with pagan than give victorino this deal. Just bad.

(null)

[URI]

That would certainly make the Napoli deal more palatable.

[Wingack]

The Denard Span trade looking better and better for the Nats.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I just threw up. So much goodwill since the Punto trade flushed away so quickly.

(null)

Let's wait until someone more credible than Cafardo provides a corroborating report before tossing this in the "Ben sucks" pile.

[lexrageorge]

This seems like the wrong way to solve a problem the team doesn't really have.

[BoSox Rule]

I'd rather take Crawford back.

[jsinger121]

[TheYellowDart5]

Bob Nightengale ‏@BNightengale
Be a shocker if #indians outbid #redsox for Victorino

https://twitter.com/...071585721499648

[SoxScout]

This is disgusting.

[gammoseditor]

If true its a defensive minded move. Fangraphs has him as more valuable than Napoli last year, and he had a huge year in 2011. Seems like they are targeting players who had off years in 2012. I like Victorino on his own, but I wonder where the guys who can hit RHP are going to come from.

[god loves the sox]

Cafardo needs to retire.

[Diamond Don Aase]

If true, can someone explain this to me? I get that Cherington is trying to change the clubhouse culture, but why is he getting the same deal as Napoli, basically?

His OPS has been sinking like a stone the last three seasons.

The only way I understand this is if we're signing him to play CF and we have a deal in place for Ellsbury. Otherwise, I don't see the point.

If you believe that Shane Victorino is worth $38 million, I am not sure even Scott Boras could demand an Ellsbury extension that would be equally ludicrous unless it involved ownership interest in the Red Sox or Ellsbury receiving his own soccer team.

[Paradigm]

No. No, no, no, no. Just watch this guy's at-bats last year. He never barrels up the ball. Please tell me this is a negotiating tactic to get the Yankees to overpay for him.

[Dewy4PrezII]

I believe I just threw up in my mouth. This seems like a massive overpay. I guess it allows for a platoon with Kalish in RF but even hitting lefty he has marginal power at best and not what you want from a corner outfielder.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

If true its a defensive minded move. Fangraphs has him as more valuable than Napoli last year, and he had a huge year in 2011. Seems like they are targeting players who had off years in 2012. I like Victorino on his own, but I wonder where the guys who can hit RHP are going to come from.

Isn't the idea behind targeting players who have had off-years to get them at a bargain rate? 3/$38M to Victorino is the polar opposite of a bargain.

[Corsi]

Knobler:

Be a shocker if #indians outbid #redsox for Victorino

https://twitter.com/...071585721499648

I'm praying this is just to put pressure on Swisher or Hamilton.

[TheYellowDart5]

Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe
#RedSox closing on Victorino says @NickCafardo They can out-bid Cleveland

https://twitter.com/...072207405432832

[Corsi]

Source: Opimism a Red Sox/ Victorino deal could happen at 3 yrs 38 mil.

https://twitter.com/...072778044698624

[Laser Show]

Knobler:https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/276071585721499648

I'm praying this is just to put pressure on Swisher or Hamilton.

Or maybe some sort of blockbuster with Ellsbury or Lester is in the works. On the surface this is a horrible deal.

[Clears Cleaver]

I swear Lou Gorman is running the team from his grave.

I'd rather see Kalish suck every day than have victorino be the 4th highest paid player on the team. Awful

[Dewy4PrezII]

If true its a defensive minded move. Fangraphs has him as more valuable than Napoli last year, and he had a huge year in 2011. Seems like they are targeting players who had off years in 2012. I like Victorino on his own, but I wonder where the guys who can hit RHP are going to come from.

But paying them like they are coming off career years?

[gammoseditor]

Isn't the idea behind targeting players who have had off-years to get them at a bargain rate? 3/$38M to Victorino is the polar opposite of a bargain.

In 2011 he hit .279/.355/.491 while playing solid defense in CF. If he did that last year going into free agency he would've got more money than BJ Upton. 3/38 is what solid everyday players get in this free agent market.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

In 2011 he hit .279/.355/.491 while playing solid defense in CF. If he did that last year going into free agency he would've got more money than BJ Upton. 3/38 is what solid everyday players get in this free agent market.

So you're saying he's getting the going rate. My point is that pursuing guys coming off bad years is supposed to result in bargains, not retail prices.

[jsinger121]

This team will never learn. Its almost becoming embarrassing being a fan of this team now with crappy moves like this.

[Mystic Merlin]

So you're saying he's getting the going rate. My point is that pursuing guys coming off bad years is supposed to result in bargains, not retail prices.

No, he's saying that this IS the bargain.

[gammoseditor]

So you're saying he's getting the going rate. My point is that pursuing guys coming off bad years is supposed to result in bargains, not retail prices.

13 million a year is the going rate for a guy coming off of a 3.3 fWAR season. It's his lowest total in since 2007. He's a better player than posters in this thread are giving him credit for. I wouldn't love the signing. I think we need someone who hits RHP, but Shane Victorino was a solid regular last year and has been much more than that as recently as 2011.

[Plympton91]

This is the move that would indicate that they've learned nothing over the past 3 seasons, not a 6 year $130 million deal for Hamilton. They are doubling down on unproven defensive metrics that even proponents aargue need to be heavily regressed. That is just horrible news.

[greek_gawd_of_walks]

Fucking hell.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Or maybe some sort of blockbuster with Ellsbury or Lester is in the works. On the surface this is a horrible deal.

Even throwing him in center, his bat is poor. Can this team really carry Victorino and Iglesias in the same lineup if they're hoping to contend? I mean, Ellsbury was no guarantee to be an .850 OPS hitter or anything, but the downgrade from him to Victorino is likely to be fairly massive. And I'm not sure how a Lester trade would make room for Victorino. The only possible trade being rumored right now is for Myers, which would actually make a Victorino signing even more of a head scratcher.

If Ells is shipped out for pitching it at least makes some sense, but I have a hard time seeing how the Sox come out ahead here. Nava/Gomes, Ellsbury, Kalish is probably better than Nava/Gomes, Victorino, Kalish + the mystery pitcher in an Ellsbury trade. I guess it all depends on the return, but we're speculating about speculating at this point.

[SMU_Sox]

So do the Sox have no faith in Kalish?

You have JBJ and Kalish. JBJ's ETA is as early as sometime this year or next. Kalish's is in the same boat. Obviously he is still recovering from missing time from that shoulder injury.

The Flyin' Hawaiian's game is built around speed and good defense. His power declined last year and his splits looked even worse than usual. As long as he is an average bat, which he should be for the next three years, and his speed holds up this isn't a terrible signing in a vacuum. 3/38m is reasonable for him (I'd say it is a little overpriced by 2-3m but this is FA).

What makes me not like the signing is that we have guys in the minors who profile well in the OF soon. Perhaps the reasonableness of his salary is something the Sox bank on when they try to flip him when JBJ and Kalish are ready.

[BoSoxFink]

This would be a horrendous horendous deal. If this happens, the team has literally learned nothing from its' mistakes of the past and would be right back at square one.

[URI]

What happens when a forward thinking AL team starts Chad Bradford against the Sox? What then?

[Corsi]

Rosenthal confirms.

Source: #RedSox, Victorino talking about three-year, $37.5M deal.

https://twitter.com/...074392759435264

[Laser Show]

Even throwing him in center, his bat is poor. Can this team really carry Victorino and Iglesias in the same lineup if they're hoping to contend? I mean, Ellsbury was no guarantee to be an .850 OPS hitter or anything, but the downgrade from him to Victorino is likely to be fairly massive. And I'm not sure how a Lester trade would make room for Victorino. The only possible trade being rumored right now is for Myers, which would actually make a Victorino signing even more of a head scratcher.

If Ells is shipped out for pitching it at least makes some sense, but I have a hard time seeing how the Sox come out ahead here. Nava/Gomes, Ellsbury, Kalish is probably better than Nava/Gomes, Victorino, Kalish + the mystery pitcher in an Ellsbury trade. I guess it all depends on the return, but we're speculating about speculating at this point.

The deal that came to my mind was some sort of 3-way deal with Lester for Myers and Ellsbury for pitching being the main components. But agreed, speculation is pointless right now.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I suppose if the team is really bullish on JBJ and plans to trade Ellsbury with a mid season call up for Bradley in mind, it makes a little more sense, but that feels wildly optimistic if they're really hoping to contend this year. I'm as high on the kids as anyone, but they'll need time to break in.

If Ellsbury isn't part of a package being discussed right now, I just don't see how Victorino makes sense for a team that's already vulnerable to RHP.

[Lose Remerswaal]

Cafardo needs to retire.

I don't disagree, but why in this thread?

Fucking hell.

There's some quality messageboarding going on here!

[johnnywayback]

Especially dumb because letting Victorino go to Cleveland makes it more likely that they'll trade Shin-Soo Choo, who is actually the kind of guy the team needs (on the kind of contract we should be investing in). And given the price for Denard Span (a single high-upside prospect), we should be trying to make a Choo trade happen. Not doing this.

[gammoseditor]

If they sign Victorino I hope they also sign Nick Swisher, and we see more of Napoli at C than was originally assumed. Swisher would add balance to the lineup, and can play 1B when Napoli catches and LF when Ross plays.

[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

Now all they need to do is trade JBJ and Barnes/Bogaerts for RA Dickie and their journey towards the darkside will be complete.

[Jed Zeppelin]

https://twitter.com/...072778044698624

"Optimism" isn't quite the word I would use.

It's admirable that the FO is so steady in its desire to keep FA contracts short. In this case, however, it seems like they progressed through a list of outfielders (Hamilton, Swisher, etc.), stopped at the first one who would agree to 3 or fewer years and went nuts.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

FWIW, Bill James has him projected to hit .269/.338/.418 next year. If he can provide well above average defense in right (he was at 19.3 UZR/150 in left over a small sample of 411 innings last year), that wouldn't be an awful year. Even if we regress his 19.3 by 50% for the uncertainty of UZR, then another 25% for the shift up from left to right on the defensive spectrum we'd be looking at around 7.24 UZR/150.