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NFL Power Rankings (time to consolidate)


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#1 bakahump

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 11:21 AM

Up till now its been AFC....and thats made sense. But now that we are definitely in the playoffs we can integrate the NFC.

I think the consensus has been the NFC is better this year.....but I wonder. Much of the NFC "power" is wrapped up in:
SF (L to NY, Minne and StL and a tie to StL) Their division is not particularly strong.
ATL (L to NO, Close games {FG} with TB, OAK, Car....not exactly murderers row.) Division is very weak with only one team (TB) at .500 or better
GB (L to SF, Sea*,Indy, NYG) They have also allowed more points then any Division leader, EXCEPT New England (who have allowed 1 point more) but have only scored 69% of the points the Pats have.
Chi (L to GB, Hou, SF and Sea) Close win (1 point) against Carolina. Chicago seems to be "the next level down" beating teams it should but getting beaten pretty convincingly by good teams.
NYG (L to Dal, Philly!, Pitt (with Roth), Cinn, Wash) NFC east is always tough. Their vaunted Defense has allowed basically 1.5 points per game less then the Patriots.

When I look at the NFC, no one scares me anymore....certainly not on a neutral field. The Pats -SF game will be an interesting litmus test.
Atlanta looks just "eh" as it beats up on the AFC west of "Early Payton Denver", Oak, SD and KC. And beats up NFC Foes like Philly, Carolina and "Free fall Arizona" (8 losses in a row).
GB doesnt seem to its "just enough defense" anymore and the offense isnt elite this year.
Chi was good early and lousy lately (3 of last 4 losses).
Giants are in their annual swoon...but actually have competition for the division with NO, Atl, Balt and philly on the slate. The Skins are a game back, 1-1 head to head but have a better Div record at the moment. They also have Balt, Cle, Philly and Dal on the slate. Dal Wash could be HUGE as the NFC East may well not get the 2nd WC this year.

1. Pats- Homer goggles firmly in place....Even with teams with better records. Pats can clinch the cherished "power rankings Championship" by beating 2 of the top 5 teams in the next 2 weeks. I would feel alot better if we had even 1 of our offensive weapons back.
2. Hou- "YOUR NEXT!"...if they beat NE then mea culpa, but an unimpressive last 4 weeks including an early xmas gift from Detroit doesnt inspire confidence.
3. Atl- Gaudy record....but who have they beaten? NO twice? The AFC west? A squeeker @ TB (ok thats not bad). With Car, NYG, Det and TB they may not be REALLY tested again until the playoffs. I wonder if they will pass the test then...
4. Denver- Dangerous and on a roll. Mcgehee's injury help the Pats. Does Payton have enough other weapons if you quintriple cover Thomas? Probably.
5. SF- I will be interestd in the Miami game with the Pats looming. I think Harbaugh screwed up by creating a QB controversy. Does he stay with the rookie after a decent game that was a loss? Does Mcdanials still have any friends on the Rams staff? Call them and get the inside info on beating /tying SF.
6.GB- they could be up 2-3 slots if Rodgers gets hot ....or down 1 or 2 if he doesnt.
7. NYG- in Danger of losing the east and the WC.
8. Balt- Not looking good as the injuries pile up.
9.Chi-Them and Banged up Balt would be a good game....anyone higher and the Bears lose.
10. Colts- Luck is going to be a major pain in future years....this year he....and his team are gnats.
11. Cinn- They could move up 1 or 2 and probably cant fall much.
12. Wash- I think they win the east and lose in the WC game.
13. Pitt- Need Ben back...even if he does come back best case is a "Jets Championship" AFC game Loss.
14. Dall, Minn, TB, Sea
18. Everyone else.


So there you have it.....in my VHO 3 of the top 4 are AFC teams. With NFC power in the 5-10 range.

#2 Jungleland

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 11:45 AM

1. Atlanta - They've been getting it done with smoke and mirrors and I think you could argue for them as low as 5, but they're as complete a team as any. At halftime of the Saints game I was ready to drop them way down, but there's something to be said for stepping up and getting big turnovers in the 4th quarter.
2. New England - Too injured right now to put number 1, and probably the weakest (although improving) defense of my top 3. I trust Brady more than Ryan or Schaub, though, and that makes them a legitimate contender.
3. Houston - Similar to the Falcons in that they're good on both sides of the ball. Arian's declining explosiveness makes me nervous but they have some real weapons in the revitalized Johnson and Daniels. Winner of MNF likely takes number 1 for me next week.
4. Green Bay - Banged up but decent all around, trending in the right direction, and with a top 1-3 QB. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see them playing in February.
5. San Francisco - They look bad when they lose, but I think their defense is miles ahead of any other team in my top 5. I also like the Kaepernick move.
6. Denver - Not sure what to make of them. Peyton and Demaryius is terrifying, but is their defense legitimately good? I think Brady, Rodgers, Ryan all go off against them in the playoffs/SB if it comes to it.
7. NYG - On their best day, they're the best team in football. But their inconsistency seems pretty un-flukey at this point. Could see them anywhere from missing the playoffs to winning it all.
8. Pittsburgh* - If Roethlisberger gets healthy I think they're a sleeping giant. Underrated offense and solid D. Don't like their run game, but this a potentially elite passing offense that is being almost completely overlooked.
9. Chicago - Still needs an O-line. Still like them if they can get on a run like they did in the first half of the season again.
10. Baltimore - This has to be one of the worst 9-3 teams we've ever seen. I'd really hate to eat those words in the playoffs, but right now I barely think they deserve top ten.

#3 tims4wins


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Posted 04 December 2012 - 11:53 AM

If we're going by "who beats who on a neutral field"...

1. Pats
2. Denver
3. Green Bay
4. San Francisco
5. Pittsburgh (w/ healthy Ben)
6. Houston
7. NYG
8. Atlanta
9. Chicago
10. Baltimore
11. Seattle
12. Cincy
13. Colts
---
not ranking 6-6 teams or worse

#4 j44thor

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 11:54 AM

NFC has lost a lot of steam the last few weeks. At this point I think NE/HOU/DEN would be a favorite over any NFC team including ATL/SF on a neutral field.

1. HOU - JJ Watt having a historical season, Foster/A Johnson/Daniels provide great balance on offense
2. NE - Obviously flip flop depending on what happens Monday
3. DEN - Have a shit ton more weapons than D Thomas and a ferocious pass rush.
4. SF - D can be a difference maker but if they get in a shoot out they can be put away quickly
5. ATL - Seems like the division leader most likely to be one and done in playoffs.
6. PIT - Ben/Brown back on offense to go along with a top rated D can beat anyone in the playoffs.
7-13 BAL/NYG/SEA/CHI/IND/GB/CIN all still searching for consistency/identity don't currently see any of them making a lot of noise but they could all pull an upset or two

#5 collings94

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 12:38 PM

1. Houston- A Similar win to the Pats, good but not really as dominant. Still fill out a great roster at all positions.
2. New England- Big showdown on Monday, can't wait.
3. San Francisco- The St. Louis games are troubling, but they have looked fantastic against everybody else.
4. Atlanta- Have a sort of "Nobody Believes in Us" identity, 11-1 and could be dangerous in the playoffs.
5. Green Bay- Do you really want to play this team in the playoffs? I know I don't.
6. Chicago- Opportunistic Defense can keep the team in games, even if Cutler doesn't have his head screwed on straight.
7. Denver- A decent win against an ok team, I still can't put that much faith in a team without a lot of quality wins.
8. Pittsburgh- Beat Baltimore, but how much can you value that victory when Baltimore played so crappy on sunday?
9. Baltimore- WTF was that on Sunday?
10. Indy- Talented team that might only get better, could be a Cinderella in the playoffs.
11. NYG- Even with a string of bad losses, they still lurk as a formidable opponent come January.
12. Seattle- Charismatic QB and a good D has them headed in the right direction.
13. Cincy- Playing really good football, Dalton to Green could be a great connection for a long time.
14. Washington- Going to play well until RG3 inevitably gets hurt.
15. Minnesota- Ponder can look great at times, horrific at others.
16. Dallas- Who's afraid of Dallas? Nobody, that's who.

#6 coremiller

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 01:30 PM

The NFC looked much stronger earlier in the season because there were a lot more interconference games earlier in the season and the NFC beat the crap out of the AFC. Now NE and DEN look like world-beaters b/c they've been playing the dregs of the AFC for two months. NE's schedule by DVOA since the Seattle game is 26, 21, 23, 28, 26, 20. Since losing to the Pats, Denver's is 24, 16, 10, 19, 24, 32, 13. The schedules in the NFC have just been a lot tougher. For example, Green Bay has already had to play SF(DVOA1), HOU(8), NYG(7), SEA(5) (with three of those on the road!) and that's not even counting their division, where they get Chi(5), Minn(17), and Det(11) twice each. Brutal. By the end of the year, SF will have played 6 games against the DVOA Top 7.

I think good wins combined with record are the best indicator of who the best team is.

1. Houston (destroyed the rest of the AFC so far plus they're the only AFC team with a good out of conference win)
2. SF (when onl, easily the best team. when not, very beatable)
3. NYG (destroyed both SF and GB, maybe should be ahead of SF, but too inconsistent)
4. GB (lots of injuries here, still putting together an excellent year)
5. NE (looked dominant against terrible teams, can move up with good wins the next two weeks)
6. ATL (pretty record, but too many games where they scraped by against bad or mediocre teams)
7. DEN (on a roll, but their early season losses keep them down. they won't move up until they beat someone good, which won't happen until the playoffs)
8. SEA (scary good at home, not so much on the road. their season comes down to the game against SF which will be a brutally physical game)
9. Pitt (D has rounded into form, strong dark horse when Roethlisberger comes back)
10.BAL (lost to Charlie Batch at home. ouch)

nobody else matters.

#7 ragnarok725

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 02:01 PM

The NFC looked much stronger earlier in the season because there were a lot more interconference games earlier in the season and the NFC beat the crap out of the AFC. Now NE and DEN look like world-beaters b/c they've been playing the dregs of the AFC for two months. NE's schedule by DVOA since the Seattle game is 26, 21, 23, 28, 26, 20. Since losing to the Pats, Denver's is 24, 16, 10, 19, 24, 32, 13. The schedules in the NFC have just been a lot tougher. For example, Green Bay has already had to play SF(DVOA1), HOU(8), NYG(7), SEA(5) (with three of those on the road!) and that's not even counting their division, where they get Chi(5), Minn(17), and Det(11) twice each. Brutal. By the end of the year, SF will have played 6 games against the DVOA Top 7.

Seems really strange to invoke DVOA so heavily in judging opponents, but then ignore the fact that the actual DVOA ranks factor in opponent adjustments...

FWIW Schatz on twitter today:

Weighted DVOA preview: NE DEN SEA SF (gap) GB CHI NYG HOU CIN BAL / WAS is 11th / ATL just 14th. More later athttp://www.footballoutsiders.com.


https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/276010755999006720
link to tweet
link to tweet

So factoring in the adjustments, the weighted DVOA still puts NE and Denver on top.

#8 coremiller

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 02:19 PM

Seems really strange to invoke DVOA so heavily in judging opponents, but then ignore the fact that the actual DVOA ranks factor in opponent adjustments...

FWIW Schatz on twitter today:
[/font][/color]

https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/276010755999006720
link to tweet
link to tweet

So factoring in the adjustments, the weighted DVOA still puts NE and Denver on top.


I know DVOA makes opponent adjustments. I just was using DVOA in that context as a quick shorthand way of judging team strength, as it's a lot better than record (which vastly overrate Atlanta and Indianapolis, for example). I could have used point differential and it would probably show something similar in regard to strength of schedule. But I don't think DVOA is the be-all end-all. DVOA loves New England and Denver because they've beaten lots of crappy teams soundly while their losses have been close. I put more weight about how teams play in games against the other top teams than DVOA does. Denver doesn't have any wins over top teams, and New England's only good win is over Denver.

I realize now I totally left out Chicago. I'm not high on them for the same reason -- they've destroyed every crappy team they've played but lost every time they play anyone good.. I'd probably put them in 10th, behind Pitt but ahead of Baltimore.

#9 ragnarok725

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 02:34 PM

I know DVOA makes opponent adjustments. I just was using DVOA in that context as a quick shorthand way of judging team strength, as it's a lot better than record (which vastly overrate Atlanta and Indianapolis, for example). But I don't think DVOA is the be-all end-all. DVOA loves New England and Denver because they've beaten lots of crappy teams soundly while their losses have been close. I put more weight about how teams play in games against the other top teams than DVOA does. Denver doesn't have any wins over top teams, and New England's only good win is over Denver.

The bolded sentences seem to be strangely at odds with one another. You (correctly) acknowledge that record is a bad indicator of how good a team is - there's a lot more granularity in how a team plays its games that tell a better story. Then you turn around and say that you put more weight in "how teams play in games against the other top teams"... and then cite records to back up your rankings. Nevermind opportunities, timing, sample size, or even how close the games are - just whether or not they've beaten "top teams" which you've subjectively selected.

There's a fine case to be made for using the eye test instead of advanced metrics. The eye test told everyone the Giants would do what they did last year, despite the protestations of the advanced metrics. You don't need to justify your version of the eye test with some kind of grab bag of statistical methodologies that fit your conclusions.

#10 carpinteyrojel

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 03:17 PM

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#11 Wilco's Last Fan

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 03:20 PM

the Tianfu Union, simply because to it would be popping out now. 1st the heart and soul temple Dianzhu source, eyes just a contact of sweep a single available that deserving heart and soul temple Dianzhu dense crowd, promptly appeared up a mountain to look and feel exceptionally far away from right here, a faint voice, but as being the thunderous roar resounded with the sky thundered all through the autumn of mountains. , genuinely high-quality eye ......

Tiny brother is ready, and everyone rushed thirty day period Worldwide recognition. Thanks gasoline Kuangding! ...] [Rogue Saatchi] 036 bother figures (under) Up to date 2010 -4-29 13:20:sixteen this chapter term count: 3690 [brothers Usually do not forget that selection, I would like satyr my selection Straighten! The] Peng! Secretary kick in the doorway in the interrogation place to flung open, and saw a scene he was shocked. I saw a police fingers still trembling with a gun, then experienced a younger boy with an individual hand to lift a police truly.

Monster. So rather type to help remedy them. Xie head! After a crowd gone. Blooming witch is in addition type. They Zhang hastily departed this magic metropolis behind a lot of pairs of bat wings, experiment with to fly this place, standing the Shen Dao previously mentioned Lee nirvana, and see them fly, just smiled and didn't destroy them. In the devil Mogong Dacheng, they really are two and started to confront one another up, only for a instant, your entire Magic City explosive tone constantly.

All the things, rather than ample to fight off which includes five internal organs Thaumaturgy cents Fei, Wang Lin did not intend to force back again these Xianshu the other, he wants to, is during the cast where exactly these white Xianshu start previous a supernatural powers! Lunar month Clear! ! Have Apparent lunar thirty day period, Wang Lin experienced as soon as, is that often the fairy king Shimizu solid Zhao River Colorful sector, his two divisions brothers, the very same exercise this white exactly where the triple 6 clients. Wang Lin, no clean drinking water skill, can not do the raise can forged this past the best art of Yin month Partly, but Wang Lin was faint during the solid the remainder of supernatural powers, this lunar month Partly, existence and daily life publicize. Experienced him, he now fix, to Ming Wu electricity of his practice in excess of two thousand yrs, to achieve this, it is actually simple and easy! That roar of seem that whatever they want Caesar the beans grown to be troopers Xianshu diffuse in.

Perfect! Shen in Wang Lin put the coffin absent, Antan noticed, much still left he just witnessed this coffin supernatural powers in the meanwhile, but considered Limu Wan. East Star! Minute will need to have the ability to check out my fix an explore contend! Wang Lin, head uncovered bare, he arrived to this Luo Star domains addition to evade times transportation sub Creepy outdoors, just about the most essential detail, is hunting east star towards household, see Limu Wan waking Wang Lin hardly ever forget about, scrolls above that tidal abyss hear ladies say Limu Wan awakening in his intellect the sort of shock and shock. minute.
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Keep it on your twitter, Mr. Gammons.

#12 bakahump

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 03:30 PM

Well its not out of the ordinary to have a thread started by me have an unintelligible post.....but smart money was not Carpinteyrojel.

#13 Hendu for Kutch

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 03:51 PM

The NFC looked much stronger earlier in the season because there were a lot more interconference games earlier in the season and the NFC beat the crap out of the AFC. Now NE and DEN look like world-beaters b/c they've been playing the dregs of the AFC for two months. NE's schedule by DVOA since the Seattle game is 26, 21, 23, 28, 26, 20. Since losing to the Pats, Denver's is 24, 16, 10, 19, 24, 32, 13. The schedules in the NFC have just been a lot tougher. For example, Green Bay has already had to play SF(DVOA1), HOU(8), NYG(7), SEA(5) (with three of those on the road!) and that's not even counting their division, where they get Chi(5), Minn(17), and Det(11) twice each. Brutal. By the end of the year, SF will have played 6 games against the DVOA Top 7.


How can you say NE only has one good win and then go on singing the praises of the 49ers? Using opponent-DVOA while ignoring the circumstances in which the games were played is foolish.

For example, they beat the Packers in Week 1 and then...what? Are there any other good wins there? Lions, Jets, Bills? Seattle at home and on the road are completely different beasts, and they beat Road Seattle. Cardinals? Campbell-led Bears? Saints? I'm not seeing where that big 2nd win is coming from.

Yes, they have two very tough opponents coming up @NE and @SEA, but I don't see why they should get credit for difficulty of teams they haven't played yet. This also ignores that they were pasted by the Vikings and Giants while being unable to beat the mighty Rams in two games.

There's a ton of context missing in a message about how difficult the 49ers schedule is. In describing how they've got 6 tough games, it ignores A) 2 of those "tough" games were much easier than DVOA would lead you to believe (Seattle at home, Bears without QB), B) they lost one of those games, and C) they have yet to even play 2 of those games. In my opinion you're looking at a team that's 1-1 against top-level opponents, with the last win coming in Week 1.

Edited by Hendu for Kutch, 04 December 2012 - 03:51 PM.


#14 abty

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 05:17 PM

As a Giants fan, while I appreciate to see them in top 7 or so, or top 5, I think one factor to consider with them, or even all teams is how well they play when they win. The Giants almost blew leads vs the Browns and Cowboys and struggled to beat the Skins. I'd say they had 2-3 really good games all year. To me, a team with an equal record, who is more consistent, is a better team. So when it comes to weighing the top teams, I would take that into consideration. / 2 cents. Btw, when I say 'good game' I mean a game that is clean/tight on both sides.

#15 Phragle


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Posted 04 December 2012 - 07:15 PM

http://www.footballo...13-dvoa-ratings

#16 Dehere

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 07:35 PM

the Tianfu Union, simply because to it would be popping out now. 1st the heart and soul temple Dianzhu source, eyes just a contact of sweep a single available that deserving heart and soul temple Dianzhu dense crowd, promptly appeared up a mountain to look and feel exceptionally far away from right here, a faint voice, but as being the thunderous roar resounded with the sky thundered all through the autumn of mountains. , genuinely high-quality eye ......


Bullshit. Tianfu Union hasn't beat anybody.

When Dianzhu gets healthy they would be at least 7 point favorites over TU on a neutral field.

Agree with you about the autumn of mountains, however.

#17 singaporesoxfan

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 07:40 PM

Perfect! Shen in Wang Lin put the coffin absent


That's cool sounding, but a no-huddle offense really needs shorter play calls.

#18 Morgan's Magic Snowplow


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Posted 04 December 2012 - 07:46 PM

Its amazing that there are so many legitimate contenders. I see 6-7 teams (NE, DEN, HOU, NYG, SF, GB, ATL just due to #1 seeding) with serious shots at playing in the Super Bowl. And there are another handful (CHI, SEA, PIT, BAL) that would surprise me more ibut wouldn't shock me if they got there.

Tons of teams in contention, the best rookie class in years....its a great time to be an NFL fan.