2193 replies to this topic

[RedOctober3829]

I thought it was just wind = bad. He's been pretty great in snow, sleet, freezing rain in the past so why would rain bother him?

Rain affects the grip on the ball. It affects any QB.

[Reverend]

I thought it was just wind = bad. He's been pretty great in snow, sleet, freezing rain in the past so why would rain bother him?

Yeah, as per what Red said, snow fucks up the field without fucking up the passing the same way. Rain fucks up grip and visibility differently than does snow.

He may still be closer to his high end than his counterpart in rain, but Brady is a bigger plus for the Pats than Schaub is for the Texans, so anything that mitigates QB play even if unevenly could help Houston.

[Sportsbstn]

If the weather forecast holds, then the rain will be "light" throughout the game. The wetness will indeed play a bit with gripping the ball, but it wont be like what you saw at the end of the Saints/Giants game last night.

[Stu Nahan]

Going to be a long day waiting for this to start. Hope the forecasted rain can mostly blow through by kickoff.

[MarcSullivaFan]

My concern about the rain is not that it should affect Brady more than Schaub--it's that it makes the game more likely to turn on luck than skill. Wet games often seem to end up being sloppy battles of field position.

When was true last time the Pats played in rainy conditions? I don't remember.

[phragle]

The Nard Dog lies in wait, like a jungle cat, hungry for a slightly above average quarterback.

Edited by phragle, 10 December 2012 - 07:35 AM.

[PhilPlantier]

My concern about the rain is not that it should affect Brady more than Schaub--it's that it makes the game more likely to turn on luck than skill. Wet games often seem to end up being sloppy battles of field position.

When was true last time the Pats played in rainy conditions? I don't remember.

It rained during the loss to the Seahawks this year, when Brady threw two INTs and had two intentional grounding calls.

[phragle]

We can't lose. I just sacrificed a furry little home invader for the football gods. A mouse. I smashed it with a Mag-Lite. All the guts exploded out it's ass. I hit it as hard as I could.

[Curtis Pride]

Smash-mouse football?

[RSN Diaspora]

Barukh atah Adonai, Eloheinu, melekh ha'olam
Asher kidishanu b'mitz'votav v'tzivanu
Lhad'lik neir Shel Kick the Texans' Ass.

Edited by RSN Diaspora, 10 December 2012 - 11:16 AM.

[Jed Zeppelin]

Houston plays half their schedule every year in sweetheart conditions. Let the shit rain down.

[jsinger121]

Houston plays half their schedule every year in sweetheart conditions. Let the shit rain down.

Actually more than half when you factor in playing at Indy plus Jacksonville weather is normally good and depending on when they play Tennessee.

[RedOctober3829]

Houston plays half their schedule every year in sweetheart conditions. Let the shit rain down.

Not for nothing, but they did beat Chicago at Chicago in pretty horrible conditions. Plus, that was played on pretty much the worst grass surface in the NFL.

[Jed Zeppelin]

Yes, but Chicago is garbage.

[GBrushTWood]

Not for nothing, but they did beat Chicago at Chicago in pretty horrible conditions. Plus, that was played on pretty much the worst grass surface in the NFL.

Houston also plays on one of the worst fields in the NFL. Somehow, Reliant Stadium still has torn up grass after the Welker injury. I remember Belichick going out of his way to complain about the surface after that game.

Didn't see this nugget anywhere else about Johnathan Joseph. Could have an impact on the offense. Their secondary is pretty solid with Joseph healthy. He's been out the last few weeks.

Texans CB Johnathan Joseph (hamstring, groin) told reporters Friday that he will definitely play on Monday Night Football at New England.
"I'm good to go," he said. Asked if he'll start, Joseph replied "No doubt. No doubt about it." Joseph figures to match up with Brandon Lloyd on the majority of Monday night's snaps, leaving Lloyd with a hazy Week 14 fantasy matchup. Dec 7 - 3:59 PM
Source: Nick Scurfield on Twitter
http://www.rotoworld...ohnathan-joseph

[DrewDawg]

Per TWC, it's going to be light rain. I doubt it has any impact on the game at all.

[loshjott]

Didn't see this nugget anywhere else about Johnathan Joseph. Could have an impact on the offense. Their secondary is pretty solid with Joseph healthy. He's been out the last few weeks.

If he matches up on Lloyd all night as the quote suggests he'll be invisible. Brilliant strategy by McDaniels to neutralize Joseph.

[RedOctober3829]

Houston also plays on one of the worst fields in the NFL. Somehow, Reliant Stadium still has torn up grass after the Welker injury. I remember Belichick going out of his way to complain about the surface after that game.

Didn't see this nugget anywhere else about Johnathan Joseph. Could have an impact on the offense. Their secondary is pretty solid with Joseph healthy. He's been out the last few weeks.

Houston's is the Rose Bowl surface compared to Chicago's. I've been on the field there multiple times in August and it was basically dirt painted green. That was when the Chicago Fire played there so they at least had an excuse, but it hasn't gotten any better.

Houston's and Arizona's fields are very similar because of the buildings they play in. The only difference in AZ is that the field rolls out on tracks and can get outside in the sun.

[IHateDaveKerpen]

Hoping the Texans pull this one off - I'm a native Houstonian who was raised in Boston - but I still think the Patriots win by more than one score.

Either way, I've been waiting all season for this game

[Ed Hillel]

Not for nothing, but they did beat Chicago at Chicago in pretty horrible conditions. Plus, that was played on pretty much the worst grass surface in the NFL.

Jason Campbell.

[Ed Hillel]

The next two games are huge, and I mean huge. Pats probably need to win out to avoid a nightmare playoff schedule, but will be in great condition if they do.

[SoxScout]

Patriots just jumped from -4 to -5.5

Edited by SoxScout, 10 December 2012 - 12:21 PM.

[Jnai]

Barukh atah Adonai, Eloheinu, melekh ha'olam
Asher kidishanu b'mitz'votav v'tzivanu
Lhad'lik neir Shel Kick the Texans' Ass.

You're lighting the candles backwards, jackass.

[lostjumper]

Patriots just jumped from -4 to -5.5

Any idea what the reason is? Are they expecting someone for Houston can't play, such as Daniels? Or maybe hearing reports that Jones and Hernandez look good? Just curious why the sudden jump 8 hours before tip off.

[SoxScout]

No idea, no one on twitter seems to know

jalbano13: Big move on the #patriots #texans line, went from 4 to 6 in a few hours. Something must be up
cch1125: What the hell... line moved from Patriots -4 to Patriots -6 in less than half an hour? No longer feel comfortable with this one...
VegasRanks: #MNF line up to #Patriots -5.5 over #Texans @Sportsbook_com. 64% of action on NE. #HOUvsNE
WillCashSports: Well somebody is loving the Patriots. So much for hoping the line gets driven down.

FWIW, the hourly updating weather model has rain staying just to the west 8-11.

Edited by SoxScout, 10 December 2012 - 12:56 PM.

[Ed Hillel]

Maybe Schaub shit his pants.

[RedOctober3829]

Lines mean next to nothing when it comes to analyzing games. The line moving that much means that a lot of people bet on the Patriots today so they want to limit that.

[SoxScout]

Uh, what? Gambling is 100% of analyzing games. Especially people with a bankroll big enough to movie a line 2 points hours before a game.

[FelixMantilla]

I actually live down North Street (literally a 10 minute walk - behind Gillette Stadium) and you are best off driving down North Street and finding houses where you can park for about $30-$40. Even though they aren't technically allowed to sell their drive-ways anymore, it is still very common to see people do it. If you have any questions, shoot me a PM.

Thank you,
Sincerely, Edward O'Leary.....

[pokey_reese]

Lines mean next to nothing when it comes to analyzing games. The line moving that much means that a lot of people bet on the Patriots today so they want to limit that.

Yeah, this. It just means that a lot of people were betting on the Pats at -4, not that those people were a.) well-informed, or b.) deep-pocketed professional gamblers.

Plus, while I am not a heavy football gambler by any means, my understanding of how the "sharps" play this scenario is that they would start betting on the Texans once they saw the public line move that far in favor of the Pats.

No story here, at least as it pertains to who actually wins the game.

[pedroia'sboys]

Yeah, this. It just means that a lot of people were betting on the Pats at -4, not that those people were a.) well-informed, or b.) deep-pocketed professional gamblers.

Plus, while I am not a heavy football gambler by any means, my understanding of how the "sharps" play this scenario is that they would start betting on the Texans once they saw the public line move that far in favor of the Pats.

No story here, at least as it pertains to who actually wins the game.

A line doesnt jump 2 points like that from the average joe betting the pats. That had to be a big bet from professional gambler.

Edited by pedroia'sboys, 10 December 2012 - 01:38 PM.

[Jungleland]

I would strongly recommend for you to NOT park in Gillette Stadium or even the private lots down route 1. It will still be around $40 for parking and having to take a long ass walk in the cold is going to suck.

I actually live down North Street (literally a 10 minute walk - behind Gillette Stadium) and you are best off driving down North Street and finding houses where you can park for about $30-$40. Even though they aren't technically allowed to sell their drive-ways anymore, it is still very common to see people do it. If you have any questions, shoot me a PM.

Just saw this. Thanks for the advice. I'm coming from boston, any recommendations on the best highway to take?

[DrewDawg]

A line doesnt jump 2 points like that from the average joe betting the pats. That had to be a big bet from professional gambler.

Yeah...some dude in Vegas dropping $100 on the Patriots isn't moving the line. And it jumped 1.5 points at once...not in .5 point increments.

[Jack Sox]

Brandon Bolden should make an impact tonight.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Yeah, this. It just means that a lot of people were betting on the Pats at -4, not that those people were a.) well-informed, or b.) deep-pocketed professional gamblers.

Plus, while I am not a heavy football gambler by any means, my understanding of how the "sharps" play this scenario is that they would start betting on the Texans once they saw the public line move that far in favor of the Pats.

No story here, at least as it pertains to who actually wins the game.

People are so misinformed regarding how this stuff works.

1. The goal of oddsmakers is not to balance the action on either side. That is how chump bookies with limited bankrolls did things a long time ago. These are huge corporate interests that don't fear a loss or variance. Their goal is to make the most money possible and that will often mean intentionally hoping for unbalanced action.

2. If the line moves, it could mean a bunch of things but it generally means that the oddsmakers themselves have updated their beliefs about the game. Its not about responding to the public or a big professional gambler putting down a lot of money.

[pedroia'sboys]

People are so misinformed regarding how this stuff works.

1. The goal of oddsmakers is not to balance the action on either side. That is how chump bookies with limited bankrolls did things a long time ago. These are huge corporate interests that don't fear a loss or variance. Their goal is to make the most money possible and that will often mean intentionally hoping for unbalanced action.

2. If the line moves, it could mean a bunch of things but it generally means that the oddsmakers themselves have updated their beliefs about the game. Its not about responding to the public or a big professional gambler putting down a lot of money.

Vegas often gambles too, if the public is betting heavy on a game maybe they hedge .5. If they believe the spread is sound, they wont move it much from public bets. If you look at opening lines at least 3-4 move 2 points plus due to professionals weeding out bad lines.The shocking part about this is the line jumping this late in the game. That RARELY happens, especially all at once.

Edited by pedroia'sboys, 10 December 2012 - 02:08 PM.

[koufax32]

I have recently discovered that we will be having our 2nd child. My wife is 6 weeks along. My unborn child hasn't ever experienced a Patriot loss. I would appreciate that continuing this evening.
Win it for baby Koufax32 (Andrew Brady Roberts Ortiz Gronk Rajon Bloody Sock G. if it's a boy).

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Vegas often gambles too, if the public is betting heavy on a game maybe they hedge .5. If they believe the spread is sound, they wont move it much from public bets. If you look at opening lines at least 3-4 move 2 points plus due to professionals weeding out bad lines.The shocking part about this is the line jumping this late in the game. That RARELY happens, especially all at once.

Yes, I agree completely. They have a strong and very well informed opinion about where the line should be and are perfectly happy to gamble against the public.

With a late move of this size, my guess is that they have some kind of information about an injury on the Texans side. I don't think any other explanation really makes sense.

[loshjott]

Brandon Bolden should make an impact tonight.

That explains the 2 point move.

[pedroia'sboys]

Yes, I agree completely. They have a strong and very well informed opinion about where the line should be and are perfectly happy to gamble against the public.

With a late move of this size, my guess is that they have some kind of information about an injury on the Texans side. I don't think any other explanation really makes sense.

Would a Jonathon Joseph injury move the spread 1.5-2 points? I wouldn't think so but I could be completely wrong.

Edited by pedroia'sboys, 10 December 2012 - 02:08 PM.

[Ed Hillel]

The injury report this week is classic Belichick. Nearly a third of the roster is questionable.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Would a Jonathon Joseph injury move the spread 1.5-2 points? I wouldn't think so but I could be completely wrong.

I'm just speculating and don't really know. But I can't think of any other reason why Vegas would update their opinion about this game so drastically at the last minute.

[pedroia'sboys]

I'm just speculating and don't really know. But I can't think of any other reason why Vegas would update their opinion about this game so drastically at the last minute.

Gun to my head (mike and the mad dog line) I think it has to be a couple respected sharps with big bets. Will see if there's any surprise inactive in a couple hours.

[MetSox1]

According to Chad Millman's rankings (the worth of those is questionable, but he's pretty well informed), J. Joseph is worth about a point to the spread. And since 5 is kind of a dead point for lines, yes him being out could have influenced this. Though at this time, I havent seen anything indicating that he's out.

[Sportsbstn]

Could be a combination of speculated guys being inactive and the public finally focusing on this game. Im sure they love this stat: Pats are 42-5 in dec since 2001 and 21-1 since 2007. Still -6 seems too high.

[Rico Guapo]

Could be a combination of speculated guys being inactive and the public finally focusing on this game. Im sure they love this stat: Pats are 42-5 in dec since 2001 and 21-1 since 2007. Still -6 seems too high.

Feels about right, given the Texans injuries on defense and recent struggles (At home vs JAC, OT at Detroit).

Edited by Rico Guapo, 10 December 2012 - 04:27 PM.

[RSN Diaspora]

You're lighting the candles backwards, jackass.

This is America. We even read our Hebrew left to right.

[Saints Rest]

Anyone know if one can find stats for number of plays for a given player within a game (like Reiss does for the Pats)? The reason I ask is that I wonder how often Watt is rotated out and if so, will Brady/McDaniel jump to no-huddle as soon as he sits?

[RedOctober3829]

Who is Spikes going to knock the fuck out tonight? I nominate Arian Foster in the C-gap before he tries to cutback. Fuck these guys coming into our house.

[Salva135]

Who is Spikes going to knock the fuck out tonight? I nominate Arian Foster in the C-gap before he tries to cutback. Fuck these guys coming into our house.

He's going to be getting the Pats' "Hot Sauce."