602 replies to this topic

[Drek717]

We signed David Ross, but I think Salty is on his way out, and Lavarnway put up a .450 OPS in 150 ABs last season.

Lavarnway is the C of the future, but I wonder whether that future will begin in April 2013, or whether they'll break camp with a Napoli/Ross platoon at C and bring up Lavarnway when he's considered ready. (Obviously this could depend upon the additional moves made this offseason, the health of the parties involved, and potentially upon Training Camp performances of Lavarnway, Sands, Gomez and others)

Lavarnway has 429 ABs at AA with a slash of .284/.375/.503 and 631 ABs at AAA with a slash of .295/.382/.511. He's been given all the time in the minors he should need at this point. If they trade Salty they're breaking camp with Lavarnway penciled in as the starting catcher 3 out of 5 games or better. I think it would take Lavarnway struggling mightily at least until early June before we see Napoli making regular starts at catcher. If they're really concerned about Lavarnway they should look to trade him now instead of Salty, but I don't believe that to be the case.

Do you consider soon a deal with the Yankees for Salty? I do. One, as noted the market is dry for catching and this is a position or strength for the Sox. Two, Salty has power -- but isn't exactly Jorge Posada back there (and his defense is perhaps a bit questionable). Three, yes, they're our "rivals" and will hit a few homers against us, but unless he blossoms into a player he hasn't been to date (he's 27, IIRC), the guy is unlikely to "come back and haunt us." Four, this is perhaps a down year for both ballclubs. Obviously it all hinges on what we're getting back but if you're ever going to do a deal with the Dev--, er, Yankees, now is the time.

Kind of have to don't we? As long as they're willing to pay the highest price for him at least, which seems plausible. The only way you do it is if the returning player has meaningful value though, if it's a C grade prospect no matter what you can send him somewhere else just as easily.

[mabrowndog]

Gordon Edes @GordonEdes
Napoli physical is scheduled for Wednesday, which means deal not likely to be announced till Friday at earliest

[Drek717]

I'm hoping him to be a PART of a bigger deal that's going to bring back a solid outfielder and reliever.

If he's part of a package I hope for either a SS or a SP. We can sign players as good as any we'd get in trade at corner OF (Swisher, Hamilton) and reliever (Brian Wilson, Ryan Madson).

[Edelpeddle]

If he's part of a package I hope for either a SS or a SP. We can sign players as good as any we'd get in trade at corner OF (Swisher, Hamilton) and reliever (Brian Wilson, Ryan Madson).

Not to nit-pick, but Madson signed with the Angels.

[Montana Fan]

Well, the Punto deal keeps getting better. Napoli for 3 years plus Ross 2 years still leaves $2 million to spend versus what we owed Beckett.

I'm liking all three deals Cherington's made this offseason.

[Edelpeddle]

We're now up to $110 million in salary comitted to 2013 (including arbitration salary estimates). Napoli immediately becomes tied for the second highest paid player on the team, behind one John Lackey.

http://sonsofsamhorn...s/#entry4405101

Edited by Edelpeddle, 03 December 2012 - 01:05 PM.

[RoDaddy]

ESPN reporting that the Sox have traded Pedey, Elsbury and Middlebrooks for 3 more catchers to be named later

[Gash Prex]

So according to Keith Law, this deal is "risky" but Upton's deal with Atlanta is a "win."

I can't see any real downside to this deal, short term and "small" investment and fills a hole without hurting us long term.

[Andrew]

Saltalamacchia very well might be on his way out, but I don't see how Mike Napoli is the reason to be sure of this. I doubt John Farrell wants to put Napoli at catcher in anything other than an emergency. He's our first baseman.

Kind of have to don't we? As long as they're willing to pay the highest price for him at least, which seems plausible. The only way you do it is if the returning player has meaningful value though, if it's a C grade prospect no matter what you can send him somewhere else just as easily.

Out of curiosity, when was the last time the Red Sox had a transaction directly with the Yankees (meaning, not someone being claimed through waivers)? I can't remember the last time that happened.

Edited by Andrew, 03 December 2012 - 01:11 PM.

[pokey_reese]

Put me down in the 'really like column.' More and more writers are turning their attention to the fact that power is becoming scarce on the open market, and the Sox managed to lock up one of the legit 30-HR threats (w/ a .244 career ISO) in a weak FA crop of hitters for just 3 years.

Especially with no one looking likely to be ready to make the jump from the minors immediately, this does nothing to prevent the team from getting younger anywhere on the diamond, and provides some Ortiz injury insurance as well.

If he gives us 2.5-3 WAR per season he might be a slight overpay, but the premium is worth it to me on a deal this short, and not having to worry about having a high-wOBA guy in the lineup for a while.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

This seems about right. So before any further moves the lineup is looking decent. My guess is Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Gomes/Nava, Kalish, Igelsias. If they can sign Hamilton to a 2 year deal, that lineup starts looking mighty good.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Saltalamacchia very well might be on his way out, but I don't see how Mike Napoli is the reason to be sure of this. I doubt John Farrell wants to put Napoli at catcher in anything other than an emergency. He's our first baseman.




Out of curiosity, when was the last time the Red Sox had a transaction directly with the Yankees (meaning, not someone being claimed through waivers)? I can't remember the last time that happened.

Mike Stanley?

[Savin Hillbilly]

So according to Keith Law, this deal is "risky" but Upton's deal with Atlanta is a "win."

I can't see any real downside to this deal, short term and "small" investment and fills a hole without hurting us long term.

The only real risk to the deal that I can see is that Napoli turns out to be a shitty defensive first baseman. Which is a real and not insignificant risk (although the numbers so far in his brief service there suggest mediocrity more than downright crapitude).

[Andrew]

Mike Stanley?

According to wikipedia you are correct.

[SoxScout]

Jeff Sullivan on Fangraphs:

Napoli plugs what was a fairly gaping organizational hole. For a long time the Red Sox had Adrian Gonzalez, and when you have Adrian Gonzalez, it’s less of a priority to accumulate depth at first base. Then the Red Sox wound up with one fewer Adrian Gonzalez and one additional James Loney. Prior to Napoli’s signing, the top first baseman on Boston’s organizational depth chart was Jerry Sands. Behind Sands would’ve been Mauro Gomez. Napoli will probably catch every so often, but Boston has enough catchers, and now Boston has one first baseman.

In a way, this felt inevitable. Napoli visited with the Red Sox, Mariners, and Rangers. The Red Sox had the money and the need. The Mariners had both, but would’ve presumably needed to out-bid the Red Sox. The Rangers didn’t think enough of Napoli to extend to him a $13.3 million qualifying offer, which certainly looks like a worse decision now. Even if Napoli badly wanted four years, he wasn’t going to get it, and the Red Sox gave him a satisfactory average annual value. This looked like the right fit, and now this is the actual fit.

Napoli, clearly, is a non-elite bat. He doesn’t make a positive contribution running the bases, and he’s not about to win a Gold Glove at first base. He’s made valuable by his power, and the best way to describe his contract with the Red Sox is “fair”. The Red Sox aren’t getting him at a bargain, and the Red Sox also aren’t getting Napoli as a potential albatross, which was never going to happen given the limited number of suitors. Three years and $39 million seems like the right price for a good hitter on the wrong side of 30. It was probably crucial for the Red Sox to get this done now so that they can turn their attention to other parts of the roster in need.

At 31, Mike Napoli probably isn’t getting better. He’s never before exceeded 510 plate appearances, and his value is tied up almost entirely in his bat. He has those classic old-player skills that hint at a possible coming decline phase. The Red Sox didn’t just land the bargain of the winter. What they did land is a first baseman who isn’t Jerry Sands or James Loney. The Red Sox got better in an affordable way, and now the rest of the offseason is that much more clear.

http://www.fangraphs...th-mike-napoli/

[pdaj]

If they can sign Hamilton to a 2 year deal, that lineup starts looking mighty good.

Now that Napoli's been added, I'm really interested to see how the Red Sox proceed.

If the Red Sox could get Hamilton to agree to a 2yr/50mil contract or something similar, I'd be elated. If it were to happen, though, I think the Lester trade talks would cease, because Boston would be a competent rotation away from being a serious contender. To be in the WS mix, the best bet would probably be for the RS to do everything to help Lester get back on track. And perhaps by the trade deadline, they'd be in position to add an additional game-changer to the rotation if necessary. A lot of what ifs, but my main point is ... adding Hamilton changes the outlook for the '13 season.

Edited by pdaj, 03 December 2012 - 01:26 PM.

[SMU_Sox]

The only real risk to the deal that I can see is that Napoli turns out to be a shitty defensive first baseman. Which is a real and not insignificant risk (although the numbers so far in his brief service there suggest mediocrity more than downright crapitude).

I came here to post this. I'll add that he is coming off of an "off-year" offensively in the sense that he didn't continue his dominance in 2011. A wRC+ of 120 for a 1b would place him in the top 5 or 6 1b in the AL. If he got back to a 130+ wRC+ (which he has done twice in his career) he'd be a top 3 starting offensive 1b in the AL. Assuming he is below average defensively and with base running we'd be looking at a solid offensive 1b who would be around 2-4 wins above replacement or so. Is that worth 13m per year? Well, if he gets his bat up to the 170's again, sure. Even at the 150's that's good for the money. He's also a back-up catcher and potential DH. So you pay a small premium for that flexibility. This is about right for the money. And in free agency being about right is pretty good.

Edit: My initial offer would be, in an ideal world, 2/22. Or 3/33 but with that 3rd year being a club option. I think he's worth about 9-10m a year on average with the potential to be worth more just based on his bat.

Edited by SMU_Sox, 03 December 2012 - 01:40 PM.

[opes]

ESPN reporting that the Sox have traded Pedey, Elsbury and Middlebrooks for 3 more catchers to be named later

ok, thats funny

[C4CRVT]

I know it's the wrong thread and I'm firmly on the record as being a big fan of going hard after Hamilton for a very short year/ high AAV contract but 2/50 is a pretty wacky assumption...

Edit- to add to the thread- I'm on board with this signing- years AAV, fit et. Kind of a no-brainer- not that that has stopped them in the past...

Edited by C4CRVT, 03 December 2012 - 01:33 PM.

[pdaj]

I know it's the wrong thread and I'm firmly on the record as being a big fan of going hard after Hamilton for a very short year/ high AAV contract but 2/50 is a pretty wacky assumption...

It's not an assumption on my part at all; it's just a price tag I'd be fine with to secure one of the top hitters in the league (in his prime) for very short years. Mauer and Teixeira are making 23 per, Howard and Crawford 20 per. Is it an over-pay? Sure. But that's how you get a star to pass up a longer-term deal offered by another team. I'm not sure how that money could be better spent the next 2 seasons considering the options.

[SMU_Sox]

So far both Red Sox signings have bat upside but are not very good defensively. Both are arguably overpays too. I wonder if the strategy shift is to de-emphasize defense for power, and to a lesser degree, obp?

[SoxScout]

So far both Red Sox signings have bat upside but are not very good defensively. Both are arguably overpays too. I wonder if the strategy shift is to de-emphasize defense for power, and to a lesser degree, obp?

Only on the left side of the defensive spectrum. Ross, Iglesias, Pedroia, Ells, and WMB is pretty good at the key positions.

[bombdiggz]

Napoli's slash line in Fenway Park, as well as the small sample that it was posted in, has been well documented.

Would anyone be so kind to post one of those HR charts overlaid with Fenway. I'd love to see how his stroke plays. Thanks in advance.

Edit: Thanks SoxScout! That was mighty quick. Given that is only the Ball Park in Arlington, he clearly shows power to all fields, but it looks like on net he'd pick up a few HRs in Fenway (although thats not accounting for the Ball flying out of Arlington in the warm air).

Edited by bombdiggz, 03 December 2012 - 02:05 PM.

[SoxScout]

2012.. Napoli Ballpark in Arlington only, overlay over Fenway. http://katron.org/pr...l/hit-location/

[Drek717]

Saltalamacchia very well might be on his way out, but I don't see how Mike Napoli is the reason to be sure of this. I doubt John Farrell wants to put Napoli at catcher in anything other than an emergency. He's our first baseman.

I think the David Ross signing was the real indicator. Unless anyone believes that the FO thinks Lavarnway's >1000 ABs between AA and AAA just isn't enough preparation there's no way he isn't your opening day catcher. Ross is clearly meant to be his backup. All adding Napoli does is cement the fact that even catcher #3 is occupied on the depth chart. Literally no need for Salty.

The Sox can play coy with the option of returning Lavarnway to AAA for yet another season, but anyone can see that isn't what they really want. This is also likely Salty's peak value with a full year of control for the trade partner.

Not to nit-pick, but Madson signed with the Angels.

I missed that, thanks. Figured he'd take way longer to sign given the injury concerns.

[941827]

So far both Red Sox signings have bat upside but are not very good defensively. Both are arguably overpays too. I wonder if the strategy shift is to de-emphasize defense for power, and to a lesser degree, obp?

Has anyone watched Napoli enough to know what his 1b defensive weaknesses are? The issue I'd be most concerned with is his ability to dig bad throws out of the dirt/on a short hop, as an inability in that area can adversely impact the rest of the infield. Given that he is/was a catcher, I'd assume he's good at scooping the ball, but hopefully those who've seen him play can opine.

This is the first Cherington signing I fully agree with - I'm very excited the Sox have added a guy with positional flexibility and excellent power.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

So far both Red Sox signings have bat upside but are not very good defensively. Both are arguably overpays too. I wonder if the strategy shift is to de-emphasize defense for power, and to a lesser degree, obp?

It might be more about roster deficiencies than valuing one thing over another in a vacuum. The Sox lineup without Napoli and Gomes definitely lacked pop. That was made even more of an issue with the empty low .200's BA the team is probably expecting from Iglesias. So in this off season, with the remains of the 2012 roster they were working with, SLG was a definite need if they wanted to compete in 2013.

If they had a roster of sluggers with poor OBP, maybe they'd have targeted different players. But they had a roster where the only real, consistent power was going to be Ortiz. At best they were going to have Ortiz and Middlebrooks likely to give them 20 home runs each. After that, it was looking iffy. Pedroia, at his best is a high teens home run hitter (he's broken 20 once), Ellsbury had one great power season but it's looking more like an outlier than something you should be counting on, Lavarnway flashed 20 home run power in the minors, but has yet to show that power in the majors, Kalish is two full seasons removed from invoking thoughts of that kind of ceiling, Nava doesn't have power, Iglesias is a noodle bat, Sands has yet to hit at the major league level and Gomez is as unproven as it gets.

Seems like SLG was the obvious way to improve the lineup.

[SMU_Sox]

Only on the left side of the defensive spectrum. Ross, Iglesias, Pedroia, Ells, and WMB is pretty good at the key positions.

Right - and they are thinking of extending Pedey which is like a FA move. But still, none of those guys, aside from Ross are free agent acquisitions. Ross would buck the trend I just don't know how much playing time he gets.

[SMU_Sox]

Snod, Salty had an ISO of .232 last year, and .215 the year before. He also slugged .454. His BABIP last year? An unlucky .265 (and I know some of you disagree how much of that was luck). Salty is coming into his prime years. He's going to be a power threat at C.

Edited by SMU_Sox, 03 December 2012 - 02:04 PM.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Snod, Salty had an ISO of .232 last year, and .215 the year before. He also slugged .454. His BABIP last year? An unlucky .265 (and I know some of you disagree how much of that was luck). Salty is coming into his prime years. He's going to be a power threat at C.

Sorry, you're correct. Salty is consistent power and I didn't include him. He hasn't been traded yet and should have been mentioned. I've just kind of made peace with his supposedly inevitable departure.

But even with him included instead of Lavarnway, the 2013 lineup was lacking in SLG.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 03 December 2012 - 02:06 PM.

[mabrowndog]

While I'm glad the Sox didn't over-extend on the years or the salary, I'm not really thrilled with the Napoli signing. Everyone seems to be focused on his impressive SSS stuff (vs BOS, vs LAA, @ Fenway, vs LHP, etc.)

I'll simply refresh everyone's memory on the horrendous splits representing 79% of his plate time last year: His PA's against everyone not named the Angels or Red Sox:

It's not just the LHP/RHP thing, where he had a severe reverse split against lefties last year (.179/.295/.411/.706 in 132 PA with a .185 BABIP) while handling righties (.250/.365/.496/.861 in 285 PA with a .315 BABIP). This was totally out of character for him given his career norms.

However, here are his 2012 season lines facing a pair of opposing teams:

vs LAA - .442/.567/ .904/1.471, 67 PA, .500 BABIP
vs BOS - .389/.500/1.111/1.611, 22 PA, .375 BABIP

Against everyone else? .177/.287/.348/.634 in 328 PA with a .221 BABIP. Holy freaking shit. So 16 of his 35 extra-base hits, including 10 of 24 HRs, came over 89 PA against just two clubs.

My optimism that he'll produce at a value making this contract worthwhile is tepid at best -- and that's before taking his questionable defense and tenuous health into account.

[dynomite]

2012.. Napoli Ballpark in Arlington only, overlay over Fenway. http://katron.org/pr...l/hit-location/

If I'm reading this correctly (am I?) there are 10 balls that would have been HR in Fenway and only 3 HR that would not have been.

In other words, he would have hit 31 HR instead of 24 HR in 2012 had he been hit those balls in Fenway instead of Arlington? (All other park, team and pitching factors ignored)

EDIT: I'm an idiot. Obviously some of those 10 balls that would theoretically have landed in the Fenway stands would not have cleared the Monster. Either way, put Napoli in Fenway in 2012 and he hits probably 4+ additional HR.

Edited by dynomite, 03 December 2012 - 03:13 PM.

[SMU_Sox]

Sorry, you're correct. Salty is consistent power and I didn't include him. He hasn't been traded yet and should have been mentioned. I've just kind of made peace with his supposedly inevitable departure.

But even with him included instead of Lavarnway, the 2013 lineup was lacking in SLG.

I hope he stays. They could carry Salty and Napoli. But Salty/Lavarnway/Napoli seems a bit much. Of the two you could get a much larger haul from Lavarnway right now. Then again if you want to compete in 2015 Lavarnway would still be cost controlled and Salty would be a FA after 2013.
If it were me I'd keep Salty for this year, let him build up his value and trade him at his (hopefully) peak this July when Lavarnway might be ready to take over. Or you could try to extend him now. The worst case scenario is that you won't get that much less for him than you would now while his value is depressed. If he continues to improve you'd be trading a good offensive catcher which is a valuable commodity.

Edited by SMU_Sox, 03 December 2012 - 02:20 PM.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

If it were me I'd keep Salty for this year, let him build up his value and trade him at his (hopefully) peak (either this July or in the off-season). The worst case scenario is that you won't get that much less for him than you would now while his value is depressed. If he continues to improve you'd be trading a good offensive catcher which is a valuable commodity.

Unfortunately Salty is third year arbitration this season, so they can't trade him after the season. Which is part of the problem with keeping him - are you going to want to give him a FA contract at the end of e year? If not, move him now.

Waiting until mid season would likely lessen his value as well, since there are many more suitors right now.

[SMU_Sox]

Unfortunately Salty is third year arbitration this season, so they can't trade him after the season. Which is part of the problem with keeping him - are you going to want to give him a FA contract at the end of e year? If not, move him now.

Waiting until mid season would likely lessen his value as well, since there are many more suitors right now.

Yep, you're right. This is 2013 not 2012. Sorry about that.

[adam42381]

I really like this deal. Ben didn't go too long on the contract and didn't overspend. Now i can just hope he passes on Swisher and somehow pulls off the Myers deal.

[gammoseditor]

While I'm glad the Sox didn't over-extend on the years or the salary, I'm not really thrilled with the Napoli signing. Everyone seems to be focused on his impressive SSS stuff (vs BOS, vs LAA, @ Fenway, vs LHP, etc.)

I'll simply refresh everyone's memory on the horrendous splits representing 79% of his plate time last year: His PA's against everyone not named the Angels or Red Sox:



My optimism that he'll produce at a value making this contract worthwhile is tepid at best -- and that's before taking his questionable defense and tenuous health into account.

Those seem like pretty random stats to exclude without a reason for doing so. I'm sure you could take any realistic option at 1B and exclude another random strong split of his and see the same thing.

[mauidano]

You can never have enough pitching...catching.

Seriously, it seems like Napoli always ate us up so glad to have him in the fold. Swing and a miss Salty, it was great to have you here. Best wishes in NY.

[mabrowndog]

Those seem like pretty random stats to exclude without a reason for doing so. I'm sure you could take any realistic option at 1B and exclude another random strong split of his and see the same thing.

So you're saying that emphasizing 79% of his season -- when he faced 11 of 13 AL clubs and all 6 interleague teams -- amounts to random cherry-picking? Moreso than spooging over his astronomical output in 21% of his season against just 2 teams?

OK...

[Joshv02]

But why throw out 1/5th of his sample? Why not just look at 100% of the sample. Personally, I hate throwing out any part of the sample. Adjusting a sample for certain biases is one thing - e.g., he'll hit less in Texas (but more in Fenway), and less in Seatle (but more in Tampa), etc. But, I wouldn't ever want to through out a large portion of the sample without a good reason.

Edited by Joshv02, 03 December 2012 - 03:00 PM.

[Hendu for Kutch]

So you're saying that emphasizing 79% of his season -- when he faced 11 of 13 AL clubs and all 6 interleague teams -- amounts to random cherry-picking? Moreso than spooging over his astronomical output in 21% of his season against just 2 teams?

OK...

Isn't that the definition of cherry picking?

[gammoseditor]

So you're saying that emphasizing 79% of his season -- when he faced 11 of 13 AL clubs and all 6 interleague teams -- amounts to random cherry-picking? Moreso than spooging over his astronomical output in 21% of his season against just 2 teams?

OK...

No. I'm saying randomly removing 27 games of his season, which includes 2 games in April, 3 in May, 3 in June, 8 in July, 5 and Aug, and 6 in September, over the entire year is cherry-picking. If you're only point is that we can't just look at his numbers in Fenway and project them over a full season, then fine, but i don't think anyone really believes that. I think it's a really good signing because it's short years at a major area of need. I still would not have minded a trade for a few different players, but it's also impossible to say what those teams would have been asking for, and getting Napoli on a short deal only costs money.

[redsoxstiff]

I kinda wish all of the folks playing CFO along with trying to identify and sign suitable ,at the least, players for 2013... could stick to the hard part finding and signing players...By the time the FO has spent Henry into concerns...we will have whom ever we wanted...

We need a Major hitter to play in the outfield and be a strong bat in the 3RD slot...

I would sign sign Hamilton for a nuimber of years and salary that would piss most of us off...

I would sign a free agent pitcher with a reasonable FIP...I am ASSuming that Farrell will untrack Lester....

[mabrowndog]

No. I'm saying randomly removing 27 games of his season, which includes 2 games in April, 3 in May, 3 in June, 8 in July, 5 and Aug, and 6 in September, over the entire year is cherry-picking. If you're only point is that we can't just look at his numbers in Fenway and project them over a full season, then fine, but i don't think anyone really believes that. I think it's a really good signing because it's short years at a major area of need. I still would not have minded a trade for a few different players, but it's also impossible to say what those teams would have been asking for, and getting Napoli on a short deal only costs money.

They may not really believe it, but it's been a frequent point of emphasis on this board (and in the press) the past couple of months when his name has come up.

So yes, that is part of what I'm saying. But the other larger part is this: Is anyone else even remotely curious as to why he struggled so mightily against 17 of the 19 teams he played against last year?

If he hits the crap out of the ball against, say, the Blue Jays and Rangers next season, but blows donkey cock against everyone else, would that really please fans and/or pass analytical muster?

Edited by mabrowndog, 03 December 2012 - 03:08 PM.

[E5 Yaz]

I've always been less than impressed with the "career stats at Fenway" type of analysis. It comes against Red Sox pitching, right? Which he's not going to be facing next year. So, presumably, other teams don't pitch him the same way that Boston pitchers did; shouldn't that nullify any theoretical "advantage" gained form Napoli liking to hit in Fenway?

The defense also bothers me. Middlebrooks had an uneven rookie season defensively, and we don't know yet what we'll have at shortstop. I can't imagine Napoli's range is all that great at 1B. It'll be interest to see what sort of relationship Napoli had as a catcher with Lackey.

The money doesn't bother me, as long as it doesn't preclude making subsequent moves. Napoli should be a useful piece, but I'm not overwhelmingly excited at this move ... depending on what else they do.

[Drek717]

So you're saying that emphasizing 79% of his season -- when he faced 11 of 13 AL clubs and all 6 interleague teams -- amounts to random cherry-picking? Moreso than spooging over his astronomical output in 21% of his season against just 2 teams?

OK...

But what is the meaning of your division?

Obviously his stats aren't being impacted by the opposing team's laundry alone. I can somewhat see pulling the Sox out as they were 23rd in OPS against last season, but the Angels were 12th (these are full MLB numbers, FYI). So its not like it shows feasting on weak pitching.

The sample sizes you're splitting up isn't why it's random, it's random because the reason you chose to draw the line between "good production" and "bad production" when there isn't a clear reason why they're different, other than Napoli's own results. What's the hypothesis that the numbers are backing? That Napoli only hits teams that wear red? A means to project this forward is necessary for your split to tell us much.

[SoxScout]

If he hits the crap out of the ball against, say, the Blue Jays and Rangers next season, but blows donkey cock against everyone else, would that really please fans and/or pass analytical muster?

His OPS+ was between 130 and 107 against Seattle, Baltimore, Detroit, Tampa Bay, and New York, in addition to destroying Boston and LA. I'm willing to guess most players have this type of split happening every year, a bell curve of performance against the 13 teams teams in the league. Besides looking at it by team, I think expecting his bizarre down season against LHP to correct it self more than anything else.

As a side note, he also got lasik in October.

Edited by SoxScout, 03 December 2012 - 03:22 PM.

[sfip]

So yes, that is part of what I'm saying. But the other larger part is this: Is anyone else even remotely curious as to why he struggled so mightily against 17 of the 19 teams he played against last year?

FWIW here's a quote from him.

"Obviously, I didn't have the year I wanted to," Napoli told ESPNDallas.com. "But I feel like I'm a better average hitter than that. My career numbers show that. I had a rough year average-wise and hitting with runners in scoring position (.245), and I struck out more than past years. It was a weird year for me, mentally and physically. I battled injuries all year."

If this is true, the question is whether healing in the offseason will prevent him from struggling mightily against most teams again. Only time will tell.

[E5 Yaz]

Lackey on Napoli: "We've been recruiting him last few weeks. I'm glad it worked out. A great addition to the club."

[Paul M]

This could work out ok, but this is a pretty risk signing. The above avg. number of LHP in the division offsets some of that I guess. Can he hold up physically even if he's at 1B? He's yet to get 500 AB and only exceed 400 once in 7 years. 118 games started ever at first base...maybe I'm focusing more on the downside but seems to me like the players brought in so far are more like the kinds of players Lou Gorman favored. Or maybe it's prudent and getting Ross, Gomes, Napoli are the value signings they prefer and make sense given where they are in the process.