602 replies to this topic

[radsoxfan]

I bet that Napoli has avascular necrosis of the hip, which might be asymptomatic now but could literally collapse at any time. If it was as simple as his labrum or hip impingement, I don't think there is any way of him taking such a steep discount.

Flying to Chicago, I'll check in later.

Yup, this is what I have assumed as well, and the incredible discount Napoli was forced to take certainly supports that idea. Cant imagine anything else causing the Sox (and everyone else) to get so incredibly spooked. Would love to see his MRI.... must be a disaster.

Before anyone misinterprets that, 'high-dose steroids' means corticosteroids like cortisone and prednisone, not anabolic steroids.

That wouldn't be a total misinterpretation, although the article most likely was referring to corticosteroids. Anabolic steroids have been linked to AVN too. Let the whispers begin....

Edited by radsoxfan, 17 January 2013 - 11:19 PM.

[TheYaz67]

Oh crap. So indeed, there may be reason to keep Seattle on Ben's speed dial....

[maufman]

Am I the only person happy about these developments?


Yes, I realize there's an increased risk that we'll see Mauro Gomez at 1B for an extended stretch, but that was already a significant risk -- Napoli has played more than 115 games in the majors only once. Some of that is due to managerial decisions, but Napoli had to be considered an above-average injury risk even before his hip condition became known.

Also, I think some performance expectations for Napoli are too optimistic. Napoli is entering his age 31 season, posted an 812 OPS playing half his games in hitter-friendly Arlington, and even the optimistic Bill James projections only predict an 848 OPS in 2013. Don't get me wrong -- in this market, $13mm is not a drastic overpay for an 850 OPS and passable defense at 1B. But if that's an optimistic outlook for 2013, what was Napoli likely to do in 2015? If his OPS slipped below 800 and he could no longer play passable defense at 1B, he'd be nothing more than the weak half of a potential post-Papi DH platoon. For $13mm. Ugh.

Converting that contract into a 1/5 deal for 2013, with a de facto $13mm option for 2014 (if he gets a QO, he's taking it), is an improvement, even though it comes at the cost of knowing that Napoli's hip is a ticking time bomb.

I wonder if Napoli wishes he'd walked away immediately instead of getting second and third opinions in an effort to salvage some semblance of the initial offer. Would the Mariners have topped 1/5 a month ago, before it was clear that Morse would become available?

[Rovin Romine]

Yes, I realize there's an increased risk that we'll see Mauro Gomez at 1B for an extended stretch,

And how bad would this be, really? He's going to be 28. In a small sample size he hit RHP with some authority last year. http://www.baseball-...zma01&year=&t=b And his minor league splits aren't all that bad. http://minorleaguece...0855&split=3000

I don't think he's a first option to start, but he could pleasantly surprise.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Gomez has shown every sign of being a decent hitter. But at 28 it's questionable that he'll ever be more than a decent hitter--or a pretty bad fielder.

Still, for a backup plan, you could do worse.

[Rudy Pemberton]

There were rumors at one point that Gomez was bound for Japan if he wasn't going to be on the bg league roster, I assume that's no longer the case. Ideally, wouldn't the Sox be best served with a defensive minded backup (Casey Kotchman, perhaps?) who could come in late in games and give Napoli and his hip a breather, while letting Gomez play full time in Pawtucket and assume starting duties should something happen to Napoli?

[Jordu]

Am I the only person happy about these developments?

Yes, I realize there's an increased risk that we'll see Mauro Gomez at 1B for an extended stretch, but that was already a significant risk -- Napoli has played more than 115 games in the majors only once. Some of that is due to managerial decisions, but Napoli had to be considered an above-average injury risk even before his hip condition became known.

Also, I think some performance expectations for Napoli are too optimistic. Napoli is entering his age 31 season, posted an 812 OPS playing half his games in hitter-friendly Arlington, and even the optimistic Bill James projections only predict an 848 OPS in 2013. Don't get me wrong -- in this market, $13mm is not a drastic overpay for an 850 OPS and passable defense at 1B. But if that's an optimistic outlook for 2013, what was Napoli likely to do in 2015? If his OPS slipped below 800 and he could no longer play passable defense at 1B, he'd be nothing more than the weak half of a potential post-Papi DH platoon. For $13mm. Ugh.

Converting that contract into a 1/5 deal for 2013, with a de facto $13mm option for 2014 (if he gets a QO, he's taking it), is an improvement, even though it comes at the cost of knowing that Napoli's hip is a ticking time bomb.

I wonder if Napoli wishes he'd walked away immediately instead of getting second and third opinions in an effort to salvage some semblance of the initial offer. Would the Mariners have topped 1/5 a month ago, before it was clear that Morse would become available?

Nope. I'm still astonished the Red Sox got such favorable terms. I absolutely love this deal. The only downside risk to the Red Sox is $5 million & a potential mid-season scramble to find a 1B.

If Napoli plays all year and posts an 848 OPS for $13 million, that's a win for the Red Sox. If his left leg falls off in the batter's box after a particularly vicious swing in May, it only costs the ball club some fraction of $5 million -- and they have the remaining $8 million in incentives to spend on a replacement.

[Savin Hillbilly]

There were rumors at one point that Gomez was bound for Japan if he wasn't going to be on the bg league roster, I assume that's no longer the case.

The only such rumor I can find is from early September, and all it said was that the Hanshin Tigers were interested in Gomez. But I can't find anything about it since then.

Ideally, wouldn't the Sox be best served with a defensive minded backup (Casey Kotchman, perhaps?) who could come in late in games and give Napoli and his hip a breather, while letting Gomez play full time in Pawtucket and assume starting duties should something happen to Napoli?

Given Gomes' defensive limitations and the likelihood that he'll be subbed for early and often, what the Sox really need is a LHH who can play both first and the corner OF spots; an Eric Hinske type. Kalish could turn himself into that by opening day, or they could trade for somebody like Carp. A guy who can play 1B and nothing else is a problematic bench player on a team with a 12-man pitching staff.

[Lefty on the Mound]

If Napoli plays all year and posts an 848 OPS for $13 million, that's a win for the Red Sox. If his left leg falls off in the batter's box after a particularly vicious swing in May, it only costs the ball club some fraction of $5 million -- and they have the remaining $8 million in incentives to spend on a replacement.

The Red Sox are on the hook for all $5 million whether Napoli plays or not. I don't expect they were able to insure the contract against hip-related injury.

I agree this is a favorable contract for the Red Sox.

[Plympton91]

Napoli being willing to take $5 million really suggests that he's not going to be able to be a full-time player and they're going to need at least 50 games from a different first-baseman. I wonder if that person is Saltalamacchia, or a lefthanded hitting first-base/outfielder. I like the suggestion of Carp, who has had some good stretches and some excellent age-appropriate seasons in the minors. The shine is off that rose with a bad season last year, but perhaps getting out of Seattle would do the trick.

[OttoC]

While I don't think the full terms of the deal have been announced, I have seen ore than one source saying that it includes incentives that can increase the value of the contract back to around $13 million if he does not spend any time on the DL due to a hip injury. Given that his career high in games played is 140 (114, second highest) and in games started is 127 (102, second highest), where is the bar being set on incentives? Also, do we take the reference "does not spend any time on the DL due to a hip injury" literally, dropping the value of the contract to $5M or can he miss time for non-hip-related injuries and still be eligible for incentives?

If we take the rumors at face value, then Napoli expects that he has signed a one-year contract for around $13M, gambling that he won't miss time due to hip injuries.

[HriniakPosterChild]

Napoli being willing to take $5 million really suggests that he's not going to be able to be a full-time player and ...

I believe that his being willing to settle for $5m is because he's unable to prove to the satisfaction of any big league club that he'll be a full-time player.

That's not the same thing at all.

[geoduck no quahog]

While I don't think the full terms of the deal have been announced, I have seen ore than one source saying that it includes incentives that can increase the value of the contract back to around $13 million if he does not spend any time on the DL due to a hip injury. Given that his career high in games played is 140 (114, second highest) and in games started is 127 (102, second highest), where is the bar being set on incentives? Also, do we take the reference "does not spend any time on the DL due to a hip injury" literally, dropping the value of the contract to $5M or can he miss time for non-hip-related injuries and still be eligible for incentives?

If we take the rumors at face value, then Napoli expects that he has signed a one-year contract for around $13M, gambling that he won't miss time due to hip injuries.

The way I read that is everything is DL-related and not game related. In other words, he could play in 98 games, but if he's not DL'd he receives the full 13M. I suspect there's some sort of relationship between how long he's on the DL over the season and the payout. I also imagine it has to be hip-related.

The rumor that Texas was still interested in him leads me to believe others think he's serviceable - on their own terms. Should be an interesting Spring.

[YTF]

My quick two cents after having had a couple of days to digest this. Though they don't often pan out, I've always been a fan of the low risk/high reward type deals we've been accustomed to seeing from this team the past few years. Usually it entails taking a once promising or previously successful pitcher, signing him cheap (often a minor league deal) and see what value you might get out of him. Normally we're talking guys who you may be hoping can come back from whatever issues he's had and move into that late season spot starter or 5th starter role if the need arises via injury or need to demote or release someone in the current rotation. THIS is an entirely different animal that I'm not sure I'm liking. Though the deal itself is likable, Napoli isn't a guy your hoping can show flashes of his old self to give the team a boost as an in season replacement. He's you're starting 1st baseman and a guy who's bat they are going to need production from and there really doesn't seem to be an in system parachute plan. I guess for the time being Gomez will have to be that guy, but if Napoli is that damaged that this was the best deal he could get then I'm wondering if they should have just pursued other options when they were available.

[radsoxfan]

THIS is an entirely different animal that I'm not sure I'm liking. Though the deal itself is likable, Napoli isn't a guy your hoping can show flashes of his old self to give the team a boost as an in season replacement. He's you're starting 1st baseman and a guy who's bat they are going to need production from and there really doesn't seem to be an in system parachute plan. I guess for the time being Gomez will have to be that guy, but if Napoli is that damaged that this was the best deal he could get then I'm wondering if they should have just pursued other options when they were available.

I would agree if there were other good options available. But who exactly was the 1B you were hoping they would pursue instead? Beat the Nats 2/24 offer for LaRoche? No thanks.

Napoli is a year removed from a dominant offensive season, and isn't that old. Although his femoral head might collapse at any moment, at least there is above average potential there. You could definitely criticize a 3/39 deal for him. For a 1 year contract, and only 5M guaranteed, I don't see how anyone could be against the deal. Its not preventing any other signings, and there I don't think there were other better options for the Red Sox to pursue this offseason.

Lets just hope his MRI is overestimating the risks, and that the Red Sox ended up with a bargain thanks to modern imaging.

[YTF]

I would agree if there were other good options available. But who exactly was the 1B you were hoping they would pursue instead? Beat the Nats 2/24 offer for LaRoche? No thanks.

Napoli is a year removed from a dominant offensive season, and isn't that old. Although his femoral head might collapse at any moment, at least there is above average potential there. You could definitely criticize a 3/39 deal for him. For a 1 year contract, and only 5M guaranteed, I don't see how anyone could be against the deal. Its not preventing any other signings, and there I don't think there were other better options for the Red Sox to pursue this offseason.

Lets just hope his MRI is overestimating the risks, and that the Red Sox ended up with a bargain thanks to modern imaging.

Options are where you look for them. It's not a strictly Free Agent issue AND I have to say that some of these things may have been exploered by the Sox, but in the interest of answering the question you pose........Nick Swisher who I think was still available after Napoli failed his physical, Mike Morse, Logan Morrison (who some say 1st base is his natural position) Garret Jones perhaps could have been available when the Pirates were looking for a catcher. With the exception of Swisher the others could serve a reserve role as "Plan B" should Napoli go down and have a bit of value as 4th/5th outfielder as well.

[Plympton91]

I believe that his being willing to settle for $5m is because he's unable to prove to the satisfaction of any big league club that he'll be a full-time player.

That's not the same thing at all.

No it is not the same thing but it has the same implication. If he has not proven to the Red Sox satisfaction that he'll be a full-time player then the Red Sox need to have a very viable plan B in place for that contingency, a situation they deemed likely enough to reduce by more than half the amount of guaranteed money they were willing to offer, even on a one-year contract. Going into the season with Napoli as the only first baseman on the major league roster capable of producing an 800 OPS would be malpractice.

[radsoxfan]

Options are where you look for them. It's not a strictly Free Agent issue AND I have to say that some of these things may have been exploered by the Sox, but in the interest of answering the question you pose........Nick Swisher who I think was still available after Napoli failed his physical, Mike Morse, Logan Morrison (who some say 1st base is his natural position) Garret Jones perhaps could have been available when the Pirates were looking for a catcher. With the exception of Swisher the others could serve a reserve role as "Plan B" should Napoli go down and have a bit of value as 4th/5th outfielder as well.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree then if those are the best options you could come up with.

I'll take Napoli on a 1 year flier as opposed to any of those options, considering the the money and/or prospects required to get those guys.

[maufman]

No it is not the same thing but it has the same implication. If he has not proven to the Red Sox satisfaction that he'll be a full-time player then the Red Sox need to have a very viable plan B in place for that contingency, a situation they deemed likely enough to reduce by more than half the amount of guaranteed money they were willing to offer, even on a one-year contract. Going into the season with Napoli as the only first baseman on the major league roster capable of producing an 800 OPS would be malpractice.

Problem is, though, that if the Sox refuse to exceed the tax threshold, they have to assume that Napoli's incentives will be earned. Therefore, although they got out of the 2014 and 2015 commitments, they are committed for budget purposes to $13mm for Napoli in 2013. Any money they spend on a contingency plan is on top of that. Consequently, I suspect the contingency plan is to hope Mauro Gomez comes through, and to hit the trade market with the ability to absorb some salary if Gomez falters.

It's not an ideal situation, but if the alternatives were either to surrender a second-round pick for the privilege of giving Adam LaRoche a 3-year deal, or to trade someone like Barnes or Webster for a one-year rental on Morse, I think it was the least bad option. It certainly isn't malpractice, unless you think the Sox somehow should have known of Napoli's hip condition before the physical.

Edited by maufman, 19 January 2013 - 04:57 PM.

[radsoxfan]

Just to be clear, this is not necessarily because I know what to expect medically from Napoli. He might be toast for all I know.

Mostly I'm just not enamored with the other options. Would rather risk the backup plan of Gomez/Lavarnway/whatever midseason trade can be made than commit to any of those guys that are being mentioned right now.

Edited by radsoxfan, 19 January 2013 - 05:10 PM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

In hindsight, would have been nice to have kept Sands as a potential low cost option at the position. There's still the hope that they convert one of their many relievers and / or Salty into a 1b as well; but I suspect such a deal wouldn't happen until spring training.

[maufman]

In hindsight, would have been nice to have kept Sands as a potential low cost option at the position. There's still the hope that they convert one of their many relievers and / or Salty into a 1b as well; but I suspect such a deal wouldn't happen until spring training.

I suspect they could have swapped out Sands for Gomez if they felt he was a better option. Between that and the Gomes signing, it's clear the FO believes, rightly or not, that Sands isn't a competent major-league player.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I suspect they could have swapped out Sands for Gomez if they felt he was a better option.

I seriously doubt it. Sands is three years younger, has a significantly better minor league batting record (as in .938 vs. .819 OPS), and I think has a somewhat less negative defensive rep. Sands is a legitimate, though somewhat stalled, prospect. Gomez is a textbook AAAA player. We wouldn't be giving him serious consideration as a Plan B (or Plan Z) if 1B wasn't such a near-total organizational black hole at the moment.

[redsoxstiff]

The Red Sox are on the hook for all $5 million whether Napoli plays or not. I don't expect they were able to insure the contract against hip-related injury.

I agree this is a favorable contract for the Red Sox.

Iircc the sox do not insure contracts...

[Rovin Romine]

I seriously doubt it. Sands is three years younger, has a significantly better minor league batting record (as in .938 vs. .819 OPS), and I think has a somewhat less negative defensive rep. Sands is a legitimate, though somewhat stalled, prospect. Gomez is a textbook AAAA player. We wouldn't be giving him serious consideration as a Plan B (or Plan Z) if 1B wasn't such a near-total organizational black hole at the moment.

Trading Sands keeps giving me pause. Perhaps I am irrationally worried about a Bailey/Reddick redux.

In an ideal world, Napoli catches on fire for 2013, rejects a qualifying offer, gets snapped up on the free market in 2014, netting us a pick. The best way to fill a 2014 1B void would be to have an internal solution. Trouble is, if we wanted a decent prospect for that role, a Sands clone pretty much fits the bill.

I guess I'm just not convinced about the 2013 mini-GFIN window. Although we didn't originally plan for Napoli to be a one year signing (which is a much better final outcome than 3 years with a suspect hip), we now have Napoli, Hanrahan, Drew, Ellsbury, Uehara signed for 2013 only. This isn't terrible, but if the team isn't actually competitive, the players just walk afterward to bigger contracts, or we

The 2013 roster looks quasi-competitive for a WC2 spot. So unless there's a plan to sign Hanrahan long term at a below market rate, or at least to get a look at him in the AL East before doing so, we may have traded Sands for a meaningless few games in the standings. Of course, this was done before the Napoli hip issues, and Sands was probably seen as somewhat of a spare part. It's still interesting to consider in light of Gomez/Napoli.

As a side question, assuming that trading for a 1B prospect (or pure power bat that could be converted to 1B) would be prohibitive, wouldn't there be some value in getting special personalized coaching/training for Gomez? If there's anything that can be done to tick him up a notch, I think the investment would be worth it. I've always been curious as to if teams really focus on maximizing certain players potential (not just blue chip prospects).

[Red(s)HawksFan]

The 2013 roster looks quasi-competitive for a WC2 spot. So unless there's a plan to sign Hanrahan long term at a below market rate, or at least to get a look at him in the AL East before doing so, we may have traded Sands for a meaningless few games in the standings. Of course, this was done before the Napoli hip issues, and Sands was probably seen as somewhat of a spare part. It's still interesting to consider in light of Gomez/Napoli.

Actually, the Hanrahan deal came after Napoli's physical, so they knew there was an issue and his contract was up in the air, and they traded Sands anyway. Original reports were that Napoli was going to be signed and introduced in the same press conference as Victorino. His physical held that up. That was December 13. The Hanrahan deal was finalized on December 26.

This fascination some people have with Sands is a bit baffling. When the Sox had him on the roster, they signed Jonny Gomes, which made Sands an afterthought in LF. And then they traded him while the 1B situation was still up in the air. It's fairly apparent to me that the front office had zero interest or confidence in Sands as a solution at either position.

As a side question, assuming that trading for a 1B prospect (or pure power bat that could be converted to 1B) would be prohibitive, wouldn't there be some value in getting special personalized coaching/training for Gomez? If there's anything that can be done to tick him up a notch, I think the investment would be worth it. I've always been curious as to if teams really focus on maximizing certain players potential (not just blue chip prospects).

Not sure what specialized training Gomez could get that would turn him into anything more than he is. Only way to improve as a 1B is reps...taking groundballs, taking throws from around the infield, etc. Moneyball detailed a bit of what Oakland did with Scott Hatteberg when they signed him, and most of it was extra work with coach Ron Washington, taking groundballs and learning footwork and other techniques. Gomez should have a leg up on that situation considering he has been playing the position for a while. Doubt there's much more he can learn, just things he can improve with repetition. Probably not a whole lot to invest in that except time.

Edited by Red(s)HawksFan, 21 January 2013 - 12:51 PM.

[twothousandone]

Just to be clear, this is not necessarily because I know what to expect medically from Napoli. He might be toast for all I know. Mostly I'm just not enamored with the other options. Would rather risk the backup plan of Gomez/Lavarnway/whatever midseason trade can be made than commit to any of those guys that are being mentioned right now.

Is it also fair to suggest that he might be fine for the whole season, and maybe next year and 2015, as well? That the Sox didn't walk away tells me they think there's a good chance Napoli will play a lot this year, perhaps playing enough, staying off the DL enough, and playing WELL enough to be worth the $13 million. IF his hip keeps him from paying, they didn't want to be on the hook for the money. I think it's a wise idea, but their actions suggest they expect good things from Napoli.

[Savin Hillbilly]

It's fairly apparent to me that the front office had zero interest or confidence in Sands as a solution at either position.

I agree that this is apparent. What's not so apparent is why. Hence the "fascination."

[Rovin Romine]

Actually, the Hanrahan deal came after Napoli's physical, so they knew there was an issue and his contract was up in the air, and they traded Sands anyway. Original reports were that Napoli was going to be signed and introduced in the same press conference as Victorino. That was December 13. The Hanrahan deal was finalized on December 26.

This fascination some people have with Sands is a bit baffling. When the Sox had him on the roster, they signed Jonny Gomes, which made Sands an afterthought in LF. And then they traded him while the 1B situation was still up in the air. It's fairly apparent to me that the front office had zero interest or confidence in Sands as a solution at either position.




Not sure what specialized training Gomez could get that would turn him into anything more than he is. Only way to improve as a 1B is reps...taking groundballs, taking throws from around the infield, etc. Moneyball detailed a bit of what Oakland did with Scott Hatteberg when they signed him, and most of it was extra work with coach Ron Washington, taking groundballs and learning footwork and other techniques. Gomez should have a leg up on that situation considering he has been playing the position for a while. Doubt there's much more he can learn, just things he can improve with repetition. Probably not a whole lot to invest in that except time.

Thanks for the correction on the timing.

As far as additional work on Gomez (and I'm just speculating here), I think it's obvious that if Napoli's hip gets destroyed in spring training, Gomez is our default 1B, unless you want to spend prospects trading for one.

Let's assume trading for a 1B is cost prohibitive, or at least not desirable. Let's assume Gomez is our best, nearly only, internal option at this point. Let's further assume that Gomez at his current level of play is a less than ideal internal solution, but that in some scenarios, Gomez might be capable of developing into an acceptable replacement. (I think all these are safe assumptions, but stick with me.)

Assuming we're OK with this so far, the question becomes: is there a way to adapt/modify/improve your most compatible existing resource (Gomez) to fill a need? The need in this case being an adequate replacement 1B in case Napoli goes down and/or an internal 1B option for 2014.

I think there are two ways of doing this. 1) let Gomez go through the regular program and hope something works, 2) try to come up with a program that's tailored to Gomez and attempts to improve his offense and his defense.

I don't know if teams have these kind of tailored programs for specific players. But it would seem to make sense if they did. With the amounts of money at stake, the rising costs of free agents, and the reluctance of teams to part with prospects and/or draft picks, why not focus on getting the most out of what you have?

[Rovin Romine]

PS - Another way to say this is that Gomez's potential value to the Red Sox is equivalent to the replacement cost of Napoli, in light of the risk Napoli under performs.

(Gomez's current value comes from the fact that there are no other options internal options. If Sands was in the mix, Gomez's value would be reduced accordingly.)

[The Boomer]

Thanks for the correction on the timing.

As far as additional work on Gomez (and I'm just speculating here), I think it's obvious that if Napoli's hip gets destroyed in spring training, Gomez is our default 1B, unless you want to spend prospects trading for one.

Let's assume trading for a 1B is cost prohibitive, or at least not desirable. Let's assume Gomez is our best, nearly only, internal option at this point. Let's further assume that Gomez at his current level of play is a less than ideal internal solution, but that in some scenarios, Gomez might be capable of developing into an acceptable replacement. (I think all these are safe assumptions, but stick with me.)

Assuming we're OK with this so far, the question becomes: is there a way to adapt/modify/improve your most compatible existing resource (Gomez) to fill a need? The need in this case being an adequate replacement 1B in case Napoli goes down and/or an internal 1B option for 2014.

I think there are two ways of doing this. 1) let Gomez go through the regular program and hope something works, 2) try to come up with a program that's tailored to Gomez and attempts to improve his offense and his defense.

I don't know if teams have these kind of tailored programs for specific players. But it would seem to make sense if they did. With the amounts of money at stake, the rising costs of free agents, and the reluctance of teams to part with prospects and/or draft picks, why not focus on getting the most out of what you have?

Xander Bogaerts as a corner infielder might be clsoer than we think. The plan might actually be to put Middlebrooks at 1B and Bogaerts at 3B (or visa versa) with Drew, Ciriaco and Iglesias serving as their SS depth. This seems like a more likely scenaro than Bogaerts as the SS of the future or Gomez as much more than a stopgap placeholder until Bogaerts is ready.

[Plympton91]

The other interpretation of the Sands et al. for Hanrahan trade is not that they wildly undervalued Sands but that they really value Hanrahan. That may or may not be a point in favor of the talent evaluation process.

Perhaps Travis Shaw becomes the first-baseman in 2014 or the guy they turn to in the second half of 2013 when Napoli's hip blows up.

[OttoC]

Xander Bogaerts as a corner infielder might be clsoer than we think....

Bogaerts is supposed to play some position other than shortstop in the WBC as Jurickson Profar and Andrelton Simmons will be ahead of him in that spot.

[Corsi]

According to a baseball source, the one-year, $5 million deal with the Red Sox and Mike Napoli includes the following incentives that could increase the value of the deal to $13 million:

Active roster bonuses
$500,000 each for 30, 60, 90, 120 days on the active roster

Plate appearance bonuses
$500,000 each for 300, 325, 350, 375 plate appearances
$1 million each for 400, 475, 550, 625 plate appearances

Catch-all bonus
If Napoli is active for a minimum of 165 days in 2013, he will get the full $8 million in incentives for a total of $13 million

http://fullcount.wee..._medium=twitter

[Red(s)HawksFan]

In his conference call, Napoli admitted that he knew about his hip condition last year...so much for the Sox physical catching him unaware.

PeteAbe

Napoli: "I don't have any symptoms. ... I'm on medication to help me get through it. I played with it last year."

[RedOctober3829]

I bet that Napoli has avascular necrosis of the hip, which might be asymptomatic now but could literally collapse at any time. If it was as simple as his labrum or hip impingement, I don't think there is any way of him taking such a steep discount.

Flying to Chicago, I'll check in later.

God you are the best.

Michael Silverman ‏@MikeSilvermanBB
Napoli has AVN in both hips.

https://twitter.com/...841006196056064

[EpsteinsGorillaSuit]

The scenario of Napoli having a good year, rejecting a qualifying offer, and then signing a multiyear deal elsewhere is quite a stretch - what team is going to give up a draft pick and commit long term after the events of the last couple of months? If Napoli does well in Boston, his best case scenario for the rest of his career will be to maximize his salary through consecutive one year deals. He will accept a qualifying offer but I don't expect the Sox to offer it.

Edited by EpsteinsGorillaSuit, 22 January 2013 - 05:15 PM.

[DaveRoberts'Shoes]

God you are the best.

I'm fairly certain I had been drinking when I wrote that, too.

That being said, I am quite intelligent. Never forget this.



https://twitter.com/...841006196056064

[SoxScout]

Is this what he is talking about when he says he is on medication?

Some doctors also prescribe bisphosphonates which reduces the rate of bone breakdown by osteoclasts, thus preventing collapse (specifically of the hip) due to AVN.

Which is taken from this study in the Oxford Journals.

Also:

ScottLauber: (Agent Brian Grieper): Cause of condition in Napoli's hip is unknown. MRI last March by Rangers didn't reveal AVN. No restrictions right now

Edited by SoxScout, 22 January 2013 - 05:54 PM.

[DaveRoberts'Shoes]

Is this what he is talking about when he says he is on medication?

Most likely, since he's saying he a symptomatic, which would lead me to believe he's not on pain medication.

Here's a busy web page about AVN-

http://orthoinfo.aao...fm?topic=A00216

Which is taken from this study in the Oxford Journals.

[DaveRoberts'Shoes]

Sorry about my formatting - I'm at the gym, I'll try to fix my last few replies when I get home

[Rovin Romine]

Wow.

Skimming through those links above, it seems like we'd have a much better idea of what the "might collapse" timeline looks like if we knew when he was diagnosed, and if that diagnosis was tied to a manifestation of pain.

I'll be hitting refresh to get DRS's opinion on this.

Regardless, this now seems like a 1 year contract only. If they knew he had AVN in *both* hips, I'm just that much more perplexed by Sands. (Don't mean to sound like a broken record on Sands, but it's an important point - maybe as to how bad/good they think Napoli's hips are, or how much they value Hanrahan, which must be an awful lot, or that they thought Sands was worthless.) As an aside, the Oxford study said the most common cause of AVN in their subjects was steroid use. Ugh.

[Clears Cleaver]

The Red Sox had to structure this deal thustly. not only can the hip go at any moment but it really hard to trust any of his past numbers given they should assume he was a juicer. And then his number declined last year. Tough spot for the GM.

[luckysox]

This study is a tad old (2008) but is interesting if he is truly asymptomatic. http://www.ncbi.nlm....les/PMC2311457/

So really, could be the 1st time he's called into duty as a 15th inning catcher, could be 3 years from now when he's DH-ing for the Yankees, could be when he's reeling in a big fish on his boat after retirement, depending mainly (is this still correct, DRS)?) on the size and location of the femoral lesion. I can't imagine we'll get that info, right?

[JimD]

For all the crap we've given the Sox medical staff in recent years, this was a good catch on someone's part.

[joyofsox]

Edes:

Boston Red Sox first baseman Mike Napoli revealed Tuesday that he has avascular necrosis in both hips, the same degenerative condition that ended the career of two-sport star Bo Jackson.

But Napoli said that because the condition was discovered in its early stages and is being treating with medication, he sees no reason why he can't play this season.

Avascular necrosis, known by its acronym AVN and also known as osteonecrosis (ON), is a progressive, degenerative disorder that kills bone tissue. According to AVNSupport.org, it is caused by a blockage or loss of blood flow to a joint or bone, causing the joint/bone to die.

http://espn.go.com/b...e-hip-condition

Edited by joyofsox, 22 January 2013 - 07:18 PM.

[radsoxfan]

This study is a tad old (2008) but is interesting if he is truly asymptomatic.

So really, could be the 1st time he's called into duty as a 15th inning catcher, could be 3 years from now when he's DH-ing for the Yankees, could be when he's reeling in a big fish on his boat after retirement, depending mainly (is this still correct, DRS)?) on the size and location of the femoral lesion. I can't imagine we'll get that info, right?

Would be quite the HIPAA violation....

But yes, the size, stage, and location of the lesion are all important predictors of collapse. The paper you cited gave a risk of collapse of 32%, with a mean time from diagnosis to collapse of about 4 years (somewhat meaningless because it was incidentally detected, therefore who knows when it truly started).

Those numbers are a bit more optimistic than some other studies (click on Table 6 in the results section to see those). Plus, none of those people were stressing their hips as much as a professional athlete would be.

Basically, without the MRI its a complete guess (and its still a barely educated guess even with the MRI). Essentially his hip could go at any time. Something tells me that regardless of what happens this year, Napoli will never receive a multiyear contract the rest of his life.

Edited by radsoxfan, 22 January 2013 - 07:39 PM.

[941827]

For all the crap we've given the Sox medical staff in recent years, this was a good catch on someone's part.

Napoli said that he was aware of his condition and the Mariners had reportedly balked at making him any offers due to the injury, so I'm not sure it required much beyond standard competence to know his medicals needed a lengthy review. Of course, all of that makes the initial 3/$39 offer that much more puzzling.

[HriniakPosterChild]

Of course, all of that makes the initial 3/$39 offer that much more puzzling.

3/$39 did take him off the market (pending physical, of course).

[Zedia]

Napoli said that he was aware of his condition

Did he? In the Edes article, Napoli is quoted as saying the diagnosis from the Sox physical was a "shock".

In his conference call, Napoli admitted that he knew about his hip condition last year...so much for the Sox physical catching him unaware.

PeteAbe

I couldn't find a transcript of the call, so i dont know the context, but I didn't see this quote as an "admission". He was just stating that he played with it last year. Am I missing something?