168 replies to this topic

[lars10]

That's great. I've always gotten the sense that he's willing to open up on questions that he deems worthy. But most questions, which deal in fluff (like that stupid "valuable Brady" question last night, for instance), he scoffs at.

BB is great on EEI.. He loves going in depth into the game, but just refuses to answer inane questions or questions that gives any other team any kind of insight into what the Pats are thinking/preparing for which leads to a lot of unanswered questions. Just talking football in general it becomes obvious that he loves the subject in all facets...history, tactics, technique, plays etc. The mic'ed up portion they showed before yesterday's game was great too. Seems like a great coach to play for..always teaching, encouraging when deserved and chiding when you f up.

[Super Nomario]

I looked (before last night's game) at the other teams in the last 11 years that have had 30+ turnovers through 12 games. Short story is: there's no reason to think the turnover parade will keep up. I think it's especially true when you look at how the Pats are generating those turnovers (a lot of forced fumbles not on strip sacks).

http://davebreaksdow...-turnovers.html

[SunkToANewLowell]

new item on pats proshop yeah those r pre-cut

[Toe Nash]

I looked (before last night's game) at the other teams in the last 11 years that have had 30+ turnovers through 12 games. Short story is: there's no reason to think the turnover parade will keep up. I think it's especially true when you look at how the Pats are generating those turnovers (a lot of forced fumbles not on strip sacks).

http://davebreaksdow...-turnovers.html

Isn't a lot of this just selection bias? Turnovers are a random enough event that you're selecting teams who have been on the high end of the curve through the sample of 12 games, so certainly they're going to regress. I'm not sure we get enough time in one NFL season to approach a big enough sample to find out what the team's "true" turnover prowess is, but as you noted this sample is still above average in their remaining games.

Plus, there are generally fewer turnovers in the playoffs, right?

Still a good sign that they dominated defensively yesterday with just the one turnover.

[epraz]

Isn't a lot of this just selection bias? Turnovers are a random enough event that you're selecting teams who have been on the high end of the curve through the sample of 12 games, so certainly they're going to regress. I'm not sure we get enough time in one NFL season to approach a big enough sample to find out what the team's "true" turnover prowess is, but as you noted this sample is still above average in their remaining games.

The Pats fall into the class of teams that are on the high end of the sample after 12 games. You're right, in that it's not impossible that the Pats' "true talent" for creating turnovers is 3/game, but based on Dave's numbers, on average, their turnover will come down 50%. If you think they have a higher true talent for creating turnovers than the other high-turnover teams, what's that based on?

[MannysDestination]

The Pats fall into the class of teams that are on the high end of the sample after 12 games. You're right, in that it's not impossible that the Pats' "true talent" for creating turnovers is 3/game, but based on Dave's numbers, on average, their turnover will come down 50%. If you think they have a higher true talent for creating turnovers than the other high-turnover teams, what's that based on?

He's not saying that he thinks that they have a higher true talent for creating turnovers. He's saying that based on historical patterns the expected regression from the current rate is still pretty good, but that the sample set for an entire season is likely too small to glean any statistically significant insight at all. I would agree with those conclusion's from nomario's post, and would also agree it's nice to see the Pats be defensively dominant with only one turnover (although that was a knife in the gut turnover, so still significant).

[epraz]

Well, that sample set is all we have. With the possibilities including that the Patriots' turnover rate (1) increases or stays the same or (2) decreases, and the data we do have suggests it will decrease, I don't see how you're confident that it will not, without identifying some way that the Pats are skilled in forcing turnovers that the sample set teams are not. Of course we'd be more certain about that if we had more data, but there were only 3 out of 19 teams that maintained or increased their turnover rate over the last 4 games.

[Toe Nash]

Well, that sample set is all we have. With the possibilities including that the Patriots' turnover rate (1) increases or stays the same or (2) decreases, and the data we do have suggests it will decrease, I don't see how you're confident that it will not, without identifying some way that the Pats are skilled in forcing turnovers that the sample set teams are not. Of course we'd be more certain about that if we had more data, but there were only 3 out of 19 teams that maintained or increased their turnover rate over the last 4 games.

I think it will likely decrease. But it's possible that their "true" level is still pretty good. As the data show, even though the sample looked at did decrease they were still above average. If it drops from 3/game to 2/game that is still pretty good, especially considering the offense is so good at taking care of the football. I am not sure how you got the idea that I thought they were really this good from my post -- I agree it is not likely. But they could still be pretty good.

[ragnarok725]

Just a fun statistical note - I didn't quite realize how far and away better the Pats have been on offense than everyone else this year. Here are the teams leading in points/game...

• New England - 36.3
• Denver- 28.8
• NY Giants - 28.7
• Houston - 28.1
• Tampa Bay - 27.2

A gap that big hasn't been seen since... well, since 2007, when the Pats lead the league with 36.8 points/game and Dallas came in at 28.4. This year's offense is basically as much better than the rest of the league as the 2007 team was.

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

BB is great on EEI.. He loves going in depth into the game, but just refuses to answer inane questions or questions that gives any other team any kind of insight into what the Pats are thinking/preparing for which leads to a lot of unanswered questions. Just talking football in general it becomes obvious that he loves the subject in all facets...history, tactics, technique, plays etc. The mic'ed up portion they showed before yesterday's game was great too. Seems like a great coach to play for..always teaching, encouraging when deserved and chiding when you f up.

Did anyone hear the interview yesterday? There was a listener write in questions asking BB what was his favorite Army/Navy game memory. He thought for a second and then rattled off tedious details about 3-4 Army/Navy games that occurred around 50 years ago as if they had occurred last week. If you didn't already know that he was a living, breathing football encyclopedia then it would have taken you aback. It was kind of incredible.

[Hendu for Kutch]

Did anyone hear the interview yesterday? There was a listener write in questions asking BB what was his favorite Army/Navy game memory. He thought for a second and then rattled off tedious details about 3-4 Army/Navy games that occurred around 50 years ago as if they had occurred last week. If you didn't already know that he was a living, breathing football encyclopedia then it would have taken you aback. It was kind of incredible.

I heard that as well and it really was remarkable. He even started going off on tangents about other games/players from the early 60's and he was talking about specific plays. It was unreal.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Just a fun statistical note - I didn't quite realize how far and away better the Pats have been on offense than everyone else this year. Here are the teams leading in points/game...

• New England - 36.3
• Denver- 28.8
• NY Giants - 28.7
• Houston - 28.1
• Tampa Bay - 27.2

A gap that big hasn't been seen since... well, since 2007, when the Pats lead the league with 36.8 points/game and Dallas came in at 28.4. This year's offense is basically as much better than the rest of the league as the 2007 team was.

We also have a pretty good shot of finishing with one of the best point differentials of all time. We are currently on +198. I can't find an authoritative list, but a quick perusal shows the top five as:

2007 NE +315
1999 STL + 282
1991 WAS +261
1998 MIN +260
1985 CHI +258

Pretty good company on that list, although we probably need to beat the 49ers and then blow out both the Jags and Fins to crack the Top 5. Also worth noting: Other than the 2007 Pats, no team has been above +208 since 2001. So finishing in the +230-240 range would be pretty damn impressive given the current era.

Edited by Morgan's Magic Snowplow, 12 December 2012 - 01:13 PM.

[tims4wins]

Pats sign punt returner Tony Logan

Edit:

Logan started just three games at wide receiver last season for Maryland, but was ranked third nationally among punt returners with an 18.1 yard average. He also returned 15 kickoffs last season for the Terrapins, for a 21.1 yard average.

Edited by tims4wins, 12 December 2012 - 01:42 PM.

[SoxScout]

robertanthony_ #12:12:12 1. Thank God 2. My immediate fam 3. My Real friends and family for support.. Today my dream came true and it's only the beginning.. Never stop believing. Look at the picture I posted two weeks ago. What a special day! 2h

i wonder if he already got in trouble because he deleted the photo of his locker... hahaha

[redsoxstiff]

I enjoy Bellychecks interviews and PCs...Most of the reporters who ask questions that never will be answered have a hard time keeping above whale shit...(intellectually speaking]...

Inmvho Mr. Bill is the greatest coach of all time ...especially dealing with the modern athlete and peripheral crap in the cbas etc...
The team always learns to repeat the Bellycheck mantra whenever giving an interview...

Again ,he is the bestest...

Edited by redsoxstiff, 12 December 2012 - 02:09 PM.

[tims4wins]

Texas Tech hires Kliff Kingsbury as head football coach

2003 6th round pick of your New England Patriots

[Stitch01]

Mike Reiss had what I thought was an interesting point in his chat today saying that Logan played QB in high school and might be a good choice to play Kapernick on the scout team this week.

[Koufax]

For a moment I thought you were referring to Logan Mankins. I had a hard time envisioning that role-play.

[Ed Hillel]

Victor Cruz just said it was "very likely" the Mannings would be facing each other in the Super Bowl this year. Wasn't sure where else to put this.

[MentalDisabldLst]

What do you expect him to say, that his team would get rolled? Ask a dumb question, get a dumb answer.

[Ed Hillel]

What do you expect him to say, that his team would get rolled? Ask a dumb question, get a dumb answer.

He was asked if Eli thought about possibly facing Peyton in the SB, and said it was "very likely" the two teams would be facing each other in the SB so he probably did. Then he talked about the macarena.

[TomTerrific]

Victor Cruz just said it was "very likely" the Mannings would be facing each other in the Super Bowl this year. Wasn't sure where else to put this.

He was asked if Eli thought about possibly facing Peyton in the SB, and said it was "very likely" the two teams would be facing each other in the SB so he probably did. Then he talked about the macarena.

"Very likely" of course cannot be applied to any potential SB matchup at this point, but in Victor's defense, the matchup he's talking about is one of several fairly plausible matchups.

I note that FO has DEN-NYG ("Manning Bowl") at 2.3% likelihood, which is 9th likeliest overall according to them. The two most likely? NE-SF at 9.1%, and NE-SEA at 8.6%.

That being said, I would give my left nut to see NE-NYG (3.7%) come about. Then again, I said the same thing last year , so be careful what you wish for...

[MentalDisabldLst]

I'd kill for another shot at the Giants in the SB, if we're picking opponents. Sure, Giants fans would whine and say "we got you 2 out of 3!", but they'd no longer be able to act like they have some sort of magic anti-Brady/Belichick kryptonite.

I just thought about SB 42 again. I hate you, TomTerrific.

[axx]

Odd, according to Reiss the Pats did not make a corresponding move with the Shiancoe release so the Pats only have 52 on the roster. Means the Pats lose the 3 year rule on the practice squad players.

Guess Shiancoe must have done something to get cut.

[Super Nomario]

Odd, according to Reiss the Pats did not make a corresponding move with the Shiancoe release so the Pats only have 52 on the roster. Means the Pats lose the 3 year rule on the practice squad players.

I don't think the rule applies currently. From here:

Players that have served two seasons on a practice squad are eligible for a third season only if the team has at least 53 players on its active/inactive list for the duration of that player's employment.

Earlier in the year they were at 52 when they cut Kellen Winslow, and they had to add a 53rd because James Develin and Matt Kopa were third-year PS guys. Now Develin's on the active roster and Kopa's in Philly, so as far as I can tell they're under no such obligation.

[Shelterdog]

I don't think the rule applies currently. From here:

Earlier in the year they were at 52 when they cut Kellen Winslow, and they had to add a 53rd because James Develin and Matt Kopa were third-year PS guys. Now Develin's on the active roster and Kopa's in Philly, so as far as I can tell they're under no such obligation.

Yes but it's weird to me that they didn't. As I understand it You can only have a practice squad guy stay for a third year if at every point of their career earlier the roster was at 53--so essentially Malcolm William and Tarpinian can't be on the practice squad next year.

[Reverend]

I can barely remember the names of my cousins.

I seriously cannot comprehend how you maniacs keep track of the compete rosters.

[Shelterdog]

I can barely remember the names of my cousins.

I seriously cannot comprehend how you maniacs keep track of the compete rosters.

If I'm going to be a maniac about something might as well be the bottom quarter of the Pats' roster.

[tims4wins]

Just as it is never as good as it looks when you win big (ahem last week), it's never as bad as it looks when you get blown out. Pats haven't experienced an ass kicking like this since 09 against the Saints, and haven't experienced a late season loss since that same season. Looking forward to seeing how they learn and adjust from this and get better heading into January.

Also curious to see if they will rest starters in week 17 if they wrap up the 3 seed next week.

[Super Nomario]

By my reckoning, tonight was the first time the Patriots allowed 40 points in a game since 2005. They allowed 40 points twice that season. Those are the only 3 games the Pats have allowed 40 points in the Belichick era.

[Lose Remerswaal]

Kyle Love needs to work on this:

[Super Nomario]

This came up in the November discussion thread, so I'm continuing the conversation here. Zoltan Mesko is 28th in the NFL in punting average. For my blog I broke down average punt distances by location on the field and measured Mesko's output relative to calculations of average punt distances. He's been about 70 yards about average this year, about 1.3 yards per punt.

[McBride11]

Anyone hear any new updates on Dennard? Last stuff I find refers to him hurting his knee, but being on the bike during the 2nd half. But we all knew that during the game. I can find nothing since that time. While may be able to beat the Jags without him, it'd be nice to know how serious this is going forward. Although I take the "riding the bike" to be a good sign.

[jsinger121]

Anyone hear any new updates on Dennard? Last stuff I find refers to him hurting his knee, but being on the bike during the 2nd half. But we all knew that during the game. I can find nothing since that time. While may be able to beat the Jags without him, it'd be nice to know how serious this is going forward. Although I take the "riding the bike" to be a good sign.

He was seen through the locker room already this week which is a good sign though I'd hold him out this weekend and maybe the final game against Miami too.

[soxfan121]

Kyle Love needs to work on this:

What, the giant roll of manboob peeking out?

[Shelterdog]

Anyone hear any new updates on Dennard? Last stuff I find refers to him hurting his knee, but being on the bike during the 2nd half. But we all knew that during the game. I can find nothing since that time. While may be able to beat the Jags without him, it'd be nice to know how serious this is going forward. Although I take the "riding the bike" to be a good sign.

He's at practice today. You'd hope that means he'll be ready to go by the playoffs at the latest.

[SoxScout]

What, the giant roll of manboob peeking out?

[MentalDisabldLst]

I really want someone to click "Expand".

[dynomite]

Not a Patriots article, but a fantastic Deadspin piece about the NBC Sunday Night production crew and their revolutionary production depth. Good read for anyone interested in the mechanics of broadcasting football on TV.

http://deadspin.com/...no-1-show-on-tv

[smokin joe wood]

Not a Patriots article, but a fantastic Deadspin piece about the NBC Sunday Night production crew and their revolutionary production depth. Good read for anyone interested in the mechanics of broadcasting football on TV.

http://deadspin.com/...no-1-show-on-tv

Excellent article. The average fan would be shocked at the amount of moving parts that go into a broadcast at that level. Telling a coherent story with that amount of resources would incredibly challenging.

[jsinger121]

New England Patriots ‏@Patriots
#Patriots release WR K. Aiken & RB J. Develin from the 53-man roster; Release WR T. Logan & OL J. Warren from practice squad

[JimBoSox9]

Excellent article. The average fan would be shocked at the amount of moving parts that go into a broadcast at that level. Telling a coherent story with that amount of resources would incredibly challenging.

It's like playing Tetris on the hardest level for three hours with ten million people watching you. I think the idea behind the article that 'how flexible your narratives are and how fluidly you integrate each incoming vignette into those themes determines the quality of the broadcast' is an outstanding way of putting it.

[Tony C]

Funny, was just thinking during the Hawks-Niners broadcast how it seemed much better done -- but didn't give it any thought. And there you have it, a really nice behind the scenes thing. I do think Collinsworth is a big part of it -- clearly superior.

When is someone going to get smart at CBS and Fox and get rid of the 18 ex-jocks doing halftime highlights? Painfully bad tv.

[MentalDisabldLst]

So, anyone worried about 7-8 Miami?

[kenneycb]

Pats-Rams Super Bowl NFL Greatest Game wrapping up on ESPN2. If only to point this out to give more love to JR Redmond.

[DaveRoberts'Shoes]

Hey, Dexter McCleon - how does Tom Brady's ass taste?

[DaveRoberts'Shoes]

The ability of those guys to somehow get out of bounds is freaking miraculous.

I'm a little drunk.

[kenneycb]

The best was he said the Pats were overrated as the Rams were driving to tie. Never mind the Rams were 14 point favorites. But at least Dexter's legacy will forever live on as the dude that got burned on Brady's first career SB TD pass.

[DaveRoberts'Shoes]

3 out of 4. Goddamn.

[MentalDisabldLst]

Pats-Rams Super Bowl NFL Greatest Game wrapping up on ESPN2. If only to point this out to give more love to JR Redmond.

I would argue JR Redmond's greatest hour was not in SB 36, but two games prior in the Snow Bowl. He bailed Brady out time and again, and got those extra YAC in a sneaky, Hernandez-esque fashion. And given the degree-of-difficulty of the game-tying kick, every single extra yard was needed on that drive.