Jump to content


Yo! You're not logged in. Why am I seeing this ad?

Photo

Baseball Prospectus Top 10


  • Please log in to reply
15 replies to this topic

#1 Hendu for Kutch

  • 3,770 posts

Posted 29 November 2012 - 10:57 AM

The always great read is up now and wouldn't you know it...the whole article is available for free, at least for now.

http://www.baseballp...articleid=19018

#2 Snodgrass'Muff


  • smarter as Lucen


  • 21,198 posts

Posted 29 November 2012 - 11:51 AM

Thanks for the link. It's great to read another positive write up on the system that thinks Bogaerts can stay at SS at least for a while. They mention a likely move to 3B eventually, or RF if Middlebrooks has entrenched himself by then.

Brian Johnson's write up made me laugh.

What Happened in 2012: After a long collegiate season, Johnson dipped his toes into the professional waters, logging just over five innings before taking a line drive to the face, fracturing his orbital bone and effectively ending his season.

Strengths: Strong face; lively low-90s fastball that can touch higher; good arm-side movement and feel for command; curveball shows above-average potential with tight rotation and some depth; changeup should play as a 5; good pitchability


The comments section is interesting, beyond the first comment which is a ridiculous statement from an apparent Mets fan.

amazin_mess
(9525)
This is not a top 15 farm, right? It seems like the weakest Boston's farm has been in years.


Anyway, the under 25 list looks nice.

Top 10 Talents 25 and Younger (born 4/1/1987 or later)

#3 TheGoldenGreek33

  • 1,934 posts

Posted 29 November 2012 - 12:34 PM

There seems to be a lot of disagreement on Owens' changeup. BA's scouts see it as advanced; plus. BP says below-average; not very deceptive.

Also interesting to me was "some question about (Owens') maturity level". I do know Carlos Febles would disagree.

More disagreement on Cecchini's defense.

#4 someoneanywhere

  • 3,181 posts

Posted 29 November 2012 - 12:48 PM

The comments section is interesting, beyond the first comment which is a ridiculous statement from an apparent Mets fan.


A little more puzzling to downright ignoble that Parks agreed with him.

This is a very good system now, with the potential to be a great one. A lot of the guys in the 10-25 tier still have a lot of development in
front of them, with tools to boot; if they've got questions, the questions have all emerged at about the proper time in their careers. Some will break through; some are already underrated; and of course some with stall. But there's real talent though two or three tiers.

Henry Owens does not have maturity issues. That's either made up, or, more likely, poor phrasing. He is immature physically; his repertoire is immature; but he's not been out rousting the bars in Greenville or spray-painting Volkswagens in the streets.

As is usual in these things, someone felt the need to make a splash or grab a headline -- look at us! we've pegged one no one else has! -- by popping Johnson in the top 10. In a rich system a no. 4 innings eater is not a 10; that would be awfully useful in the bigs, to be sure, but it's not a 10.

#5 Savin Hillbilly


  • SoSH Member


  • 11,844 posts

Posted 29 November 2012 - 12:58 PM

I'm still waiting for the first scouting report on JBJ that doesn't make me feel a deep, passionate yearning to see him play center field in a Red Sox uniform.

#6 amarshal2

  • 2,775 posts

Posted 29 November 2012 - 01:52 PM

Good to see Chris Mellen of SoxProspects contributing to the report. He seems to have written the Top 10 Talents 25 and Younger segment.

#7 Detts

  • 877 posts

Posted 29 November 2012 - 02:02 PM

There seems to be a lot of disagreement on Owens' changeup. BA's scouts see it as advanced; plus. BP says below-average; not very deceptive.

Also interesting to me was "some question about (Owens') maturity level". I do know Carlos Febles would disagree.

More disagreement on Cecchini's defense.


His change is not 'below average'. 'Below average' change-ups don't break ankles. Yes, it's low A, but to my untrained eye it was pretty good.

And any insinuation that Owens is a headcase is 100% bullshit. Nothing but praise in the paper here for his maturity and work ethic.

#8 TheGoldenGreek33

  • 1,934 posts

Posted 29 November 2012 - 02:09 PM

His change is not 'below average'. 'Below average' change-ups don't break ankles. Yes, it's low A, but to my untrained eye it was pretty good.

And any insinuation that Owens is a headcase is 100% bullshit. Nothing but praise in the paper here for his maturity and work ethic.

Couldn't agree more. I only saw one start (in GBRO, late July), but it looked above-average to me. I do wonder how long until he scraps that Mickey Mouse curveball.

I'm still waiting for the first scouting report on JBJ that doesn't make me feel a deep, passionate yearning to see him play center field in a Red Sox uniform.

Yes.

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 29 November 2012 - 02:10 PM.


#9 Snodgrass'Muff


  • smarter as Lucen


  • 21,198 posts

Posted 29 November 2012 - 02:15 PM

A little more puzzling to downright ignoble that Parks agreed with him.

This is a very good system now, with the potential to be a great one. A lot of the guys in the 10-25 tier still have a lot of development in
front of them, with tools to boot; if they've got questions, the questions have all emerged at about the proper time in their careers. Some will break through; some are already underrated; and of course some with stall. But there's real talent though two or three tiers.


I don't think he agreed with the poster. He said he thinks "it's a good (not great) system." That suggests, at least to me, an above average farm system, which means better than "not a top 15, right?"

The Mets fan argued this is one of the weakest the Sox have had in a long time. JP countered with "the top four are very strong" and followed by pointing out that the talent after that was "thin" but still had a lot of high ceiling players.

I'm guessing he thinks the Sox have a lower top 10 system (7-10) from those comments, which wouldn't be an unfair ranking.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 29 November 2012 - 02:16 PM.


#10 TheGoldenGreek33

  • 1,934 posts

Posted 29 November 2012 - 02:29 PM

Seems to me the only reason Johnson is No. 10 was because their list was too similar to BA's.

Marrero's BPro scouting report sounds a heckuva lot better than Johnson, whom actually I like more than most; just not over a potential above-average everyday shortstop.

BA -vs- BP
BA (10/31) BP (11/29)
1 Bogaerts Bogaerts
2 Bradley Bradley
3 Barnes Barnes
4 Webster Webster
5 Owens Swihart
6 Swihart Cecchini
7 Cecchini Owens
8 Brentz Brentz
9 Iglesias Iglesias
10 Marrero Johnson


Also weird is that Margot and Vinicio are listed above Marrero in the Prospects on the Rise section... don't understand that at all.

edit: Those three weren't in order.

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 29 November 2012 - 02:45 PM.


#11 Chris Mellen

  • 1 posts

Posted 29 November 2012 - 03:25 PM

I backed Brian Johnson for the Top 10. It had nothing to do with grabbing a headline or being different than anyone. Just an evaluation I felt was right.

Garin Cecchini's defense is improved from 2011 in Lowell, but still on the rigid side and stiff with his actions. There's questions on how far it can go. I see 50, maybe 55.

Henry Owens is very deliberate throwing his changeup and it tends to float at the tail-end. Stays up in the zone too. He's inconsistent with it, but when he throws it right it flashes as a legit pitch. The repetition and work controlling/finishing his delivery will go a long way towards refining his secondary stuff.

#12 TheGoldenGreek33

  • 1,934 posts

Posted 29 November 2012 - 03:51 PM

Thanks.

Defensively, how much of that Cecchini's stiffness has to do with the torn ACL? He's fully healthy now, but he did look very awkward in the beginning of the season - almost like he was still a little afraid.

#13 someoneanywhere

  • 3,181 posts

Posted 29 November 2012 - 08:12 PM

I don't think he agreed with the poster. He said he thinks "it's a good (not great) system." That suggests, at least to me, an above average farm system, which means better than "not a top 15, right?"

The Mets fan argued this is one of the weakest the Sox have had in a long time. JP countered with "the top four are very strong" and followed by pointing out that the talent after that was "thin" but still had a lot of high ceiling players.

I'm guessing he thinks the Sox have a lower top 10 system (7-10) from those comments, which wouldn't be an unfair ranking.


i think that's probably fair -- thanks for reeling me in. I took it to be the left-handed "good." I'd say it was a 5-8 system, with the potential -- if some of those guys in the next two twos, many of whom were once Top 10s, come on around -- to be a top 4. The Brittons, Ranaudos, Coyles, and Jacobses of the world ought not to be shriven before their time.


I backed Brian Johnson for the Top 10. It had nothing to do with grabbing a headline or being different than anyone. Just an evaluation I felt was right.

Garin Cecchini's defense is improved from 2011 in Lowell, but still on the rigid side and stiff with his actions. There's questions on how far it can go. I see 50, maybe 55.

Henry Owens is very deliberate throwing his changeup and it tends to float at the tail-end. Stays up in the zone too. He's inconsistent with it, but when he throws it right it flashes as a legit pitch. The repetition and work controlling/finishing his delivery will go a long way towards refining his secondary stuff.


I do appreciate your frankness. To be fair to you, I haven't seen any of Johnson. (I have seen a lot of the other prospects, multiple times.) But I do think that a guy relatively low on stuff, no matter his savvy, and especially because he's a college guy, will have to show how advanced that savvy is beyond rookie ball before I would ping him as a Top 10. Believe me, I would rather you be right.

#14 JakeRae


  • SoSH Member


  • 5,325 posts

Posted 29 November 2012 - 09:20 PM

Using the SoxProspects list as a guideline, the 10-15 prospects (excluding De La Rosa and bumping everyone else up a spot) are Britton, Workman, Marrero, Johnson, Wilson, Ranaudo, in that order. I'm not sure I see a ton of separation in that group and think a case could be made for any of those guys (maybe not Ranaudo) for the 10th ranking.


I also wouldn't object to the characterization that the system isn't particularly deep right now. No one outside of the top 9 is anyone that you would bat an eye at including in a trade nor anyone we would be excited about trading for if they came from another organization. There are a lot of guys with talent and pedigrees who could break out next year, but this year served to take a deep system lacking in high end talent and turn it into a top heavy system where the quality of the depth has taken a step back. That's not a bad result at all since what we really care about is high end talent.

#15 The Best Catch in 100 Years

  • 722 posts

Posted 11 December 2012 - 07:10 AM

Using the SoxProspects list as a guideline, the 10-15 prospects (excluding De La Rosa and bumping everyone else up a spot) are Britton, Workman, Marrero, Johnson, Wilson, Ranaudo, in that order. I'm not sure I see a ton of separation in that group and think a case could be made for any of those guys (maybe not Ranaudo) for the 10th ranking.


I also wouldn't object to the characterization that the system isn't particularly deep right now. No one outside of the top 9 is anyone that you would bat an eye at including in a trade nor anyone we would be excited about trading for if they came from another organization. There are a lot of guys with talent and pedigrees who could break out next year, but this year served to take a deep system lacking in high end talent and turn it into a top heavy system where the quality of the depth has taken a step back. That's not a bad result at all since what we really care about is high end talent.

Just curious, how many organizations in baseball do you think have quite a few players ranked 10 and below who "we" would be excited about trading for?

#16 Filmore Slim 87

  • 1 posts

Posted 26 January 2013 - 04:17 PM

I'm still waiting for the first scouting report on JBJ that doesn't make me feel a deep, passionate yearning to see him play center field in a Red Sox uniform.

 

Likewise.  Had the pleasure of watching him win two national championships at South Carolina.  Kid was born to be a major leaguer, there wasnt a pitcher in the entire nation he couldnt hit. It's college ball, but he stuck out whenever he was on the field.  Maybe a top 10 guy if he had a full healthy junior year.  Sox caught a bargain






0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users