36 replies to this topic

[mabrowndog]

MLB clubs have until Friday night to address arbitration-eligible club-controlled players in one of three ways:

1) Sign them to a contract for 2013 or beyond.
2) Offer them arbitration.
3) Decline to tender them any offer, immediately making them free agents.

Last year's deadline was 2 weeks later (Dec. 12) and came after the winter meetings. Under the new CBA, this year's accelerated calendar makes it a far more important part of market dynamics. When clubs meet in Nashville next week (Dec 3-6), everyone involved will have a more complete picture of who's available.

Here are the Sox' players for whom the clock ticks, with year of arb-eligibility in parentheses:
Alfredo Aceves, RHRP (2)
Scott Atchison, RHRP (2)
Andrew Bailey, RHRP (2)
Daniel Bard, RHRP (2)
Craig Breslow, LHRP (3)
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF (3)
Rich Hill, LHRP (3)
Andrew Miller, LHRP (2)
Franklin Morales, LHRP (2)
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C (3)
Ryan Sweeney, OF (3)
Most of these guys will have decent value to the club, either as projected members of the 2013 team or as trade commodities. IMO those most likely to be non-tendered are Sweeney (who's about to drop further down the depth chart once Jonny Gomes officially signs) and Aceves (who seemed to wear out his welcome last year with his behavioral outbursts). Hill has been NTd twice before, and could be again since he's coming off TJ surgery. Atchison, with UCL issues of his own, is another candidate; his desire to stay near Boston, where his daughter's been getting treatment for a rare medical condition, makes him more likely to re-sign with the Sox on a minor league deal -- just as he did last winter after the club declined his 2012 option.

Then there are the players from other clubs who might garner interest from Boston should they be non-tendered and hit the market. If Kendrys Morales (LAA) and/or Mark Reynolds (BAL) become free agents, that's bound to influence the Sox' tactics with Mike Napoli and Adam LaRoche. Should a decent SP like Jeff Karstens (PIT) be made available, perhaps the Sox think twice about pursuing a more costly and risk-laden option like Zach Greinke.

[Savin Hillbilly]

A couple of weeks ago I would have said Sweeney was a shoo-in to be NT'd, but the acquisition of Gomes would seem to make a strong defensive bench OF more valuable to the Sox.

[Lose Remerswaal]

Much as I hope they non-tender Fettucine, the fact that they kept him on the team after he acted up, without a suspension makes me doubt that they will let him go now.

I hope to be wrong.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Sweeney is going to make $2M, why tender him? What does he do that Kalish can't? I see no upside with that guy at all.

[lexrageorge]

Obvious keepers: Bailey, Bard, Breslow, Ellsbury, Morales, Salty

On the bubble: Atchison, Hill, Miller (I predict at least 1 or 2 will return)

Out (I hope): Aceves, Sweeney

[Savin Hillbilly]

Sweeney is going to make $2M, why tender him? What does he do that Kalish can't?

1) Provide proven, experienced quality defense at all three OF positions. (Kalish may have the ability to do this, but the results so far at the ML level have been mixed.)

2) Spend the majority of his time on the bench without compromising the development of a valuable asset.

[The Gray Eagle]

Aceves is a decent pitcher if he's used in the right role-- 7th and 8th inning reliever-- and he has a manager who doesn't make his head case issues into big problems.

When Francona was the manager, no one heard any problems from Aceves, just that he was willing to go out there every day and pitch for the team that really needed him. When Valentine was the manager, there were suddenly attitude problems with Aceves getting along with the manager.

He could be a solid pitcher again if used in the right role, and we need pitching. Even including his horrific 2012, he's got a career ERA of 3.56 in 324 IP, all in the AL East. He's one year away from 114 IP at a 2.61 ERA.

There's no need to just give him away for nothing, just because he was used incorrectly last year and had problems with Bobby Freaking Valentine. Bringing him back on a one-year deal should be worth the risk.

[Soxfan in Fla]

Aceves is a decent pitcher if he's used in the right role-- 7th and 8th inning reliever-- and he has a manager who doesn't make his head case issues into big problems.

When Francona was the manager, no one heard any problems from Aceves, just that he was willing to go out there every day and pitch for the team that really needed him. When Valentine was the manager, there were suddenly attitude problems with Aceves getting along with the manager.

He could be a solid pitcher again if used in the right role, and we need pitching. Even including his horrific 2012, he's got a career ERA of 3.56 in 324 IP, all in the AL East. He's one year away from 114 IP at a 2.61 ERA.

There's no need to just give him away for nothing, just because he was used incorrectly last year and had problems with Bobby Freaking Valentine. Bringing him back on a one-year deal should be worth the risk.

Clashing with Bobby Valentine should earn you a medal. Aceves, when used properly and Lord knows Booby V was too stupid to do that, is very effective and a good weapon out of the pen or swinging into the rotation when needed.

[Bernard Gilkey baby]

I'd be surprised if they didn't tender Aceves. The guy has rubber arm. John Farrell mentioned him - I think at the press conference? - as someone who intrigued him from across the diamond, mainly because of his versatility. Probably mentioned him for a reason. And in a recent interview, I can't remember where, David Ortiz talked about Aceves and said his mental issues can be handled. To paraphras, Aceves said he's an emotional guy but he will respect boundaries if they are properly set. We've seen that a manager with people skills utilize him effectively, so assuming we have that again, I think the Sox keep him around.

[mabrowndog]

MLBTR has a list of NT candidates for all 30 clubs.

Brian Wilson, Jair Jurrjens, Mike Pelfrey, John Lannan and Luke Hochevar are among the more intriguing names who seem more likely than not to hit the market, and I could see the Sox being interested in all of them to varying degrees as "buy low"/reclamation candidates.

[Rovin Romine]

There's no need to just give him away for nothing, just because he was used incorrectly last year and had problems with Bobby Freaking Valentine. Bringing him back on a one-year deal should be worth the risk.

Well, there was the whole "5th Starter" audition as well, which Aceves clearly thought was BS. Valentine, IIRC, wanted Bard in the pen, which would have made Aceves the default 5th starter. I know Bard had his problems in 2011, but his entire recovery plan this year is to "do what I did in 2010."

Although I thought it was the right idea to start Bard, you can't help but wonder where the sox would have been mid-season if we a) were spared Aceves's first month in the bullpen (and had Bard on his "regular" game plan), b) were spared Bard's first month starting. There's a decent chance we'd have Beckett and Crawford as two of the main topics of this off season. And still be talking about BVs latest quotes.

I think that one decision really changed the fortunes of the Sox. Hopefully, painful as the season was, that mistake will lead to better things in the future.

[Yaz4Ever]

MLBTR has a list of NT candidates for all 30 clubs.

Brian Wilson, Jair Jurrjens, Mike Pelfrey, John Lannan and Luke Hochevar are among the more intriguing names who seem more likely than not to hit the market, and I could see the Sox being interested in all of them to varying degrees as "buy low"/reclamation candidates.

'dog, I agree with most of those guys, but I don't think Brian Wilson would be on their radar unless they move Bailey. Having Tazawa, Aceves (who I think we tender), Bard, and Bailey leaves little room for Wilson.

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

'dog, I agree with most of those guys, but I don't think Brian Wilson would be on their radar unless they move Bailey. Having Tazawa, Aceves (who I think we tender), Bard, and Bailey leaves little room for Wilson.

I disagree for a couple of reasons. First, even if you consider Tazawa and Aceves sure things, there is huge uncertainty about how Bailey will perform in '13 and whether Bard is even a viable major leaguer (or minor leaguer for that matter). Wilson is no sure thing given that he is bouncing back from elbow surgery but as Olney and a few others noted, he is "local" (N.H.) and probably has a better chance to reclaim a closer's role in Boston than he does in many other places.

And, love him or hate him, he is a very marketable personality - I suspect that will appeal to the Sox FO as they attempt to rebuild the team.

[bosockboy]

'dog, I agree with most of those guys, but I don't think Brian Wilson would be on their radar unless they move Bailey. Having Tazawa, Aceves (who I think we tender), Bard, and Bailey leaves little room for Wilson.

Melancon too. The pen is one area that doesn't need a ton of rebuilding. I could see signing Wilson if they moved Bailey,

[Yaz4Ever]

I disagree for a couple of reasons. First, even if you consider Tazawa and Aceves sure things, there is huge uncertainty about how Bailey will perform in '13 and whether Bard is even a viable major leaguer (or minor leaguer for that matter). Wilson is no sure thing given that he is bouncing back from elbow surgery but as Olney and a few others noted, he is "local" (N.H.) and probably has a better chance to reclaim a closer's role in Boston than he does in many other places.

And, love him or hate him, he is a very marketable personality - I suspect that will appeal to the Sox FO as they attempt to rebuild the team.

I love Wilson, it's not a matter of likeability and I agree he'd likely flourish in this spotlight, I just don't see the FO being interested unless they move Bailey. If Bailey goes bye bye, I'd be onboard with a Wilson signing, pending physical of course.

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I love Wilson, it's not a matter of likeability and I agree he'd likely flourish in this spotlight, I just don't see the FO being interested unless they move Bailey. If Bailey goes bye bye, I'd be onboard with a Wilson signing, pending physical of course.

Again, I am not sure Bailey and Wilson are mutually exclusive. At this point, Bailey cannot be viewed as anything other than a relatively high-ceiling bounce back candidate. Ditto Wilson. The Sox can start the season with both in the pen and if they both pan out they can deal one or the other at the deadline. I think the Sox will have interest but like most other posts in this thread, its all speculation until these guys actually hit the market.

[941827]

Brian Wilson is on his second Tommy John surgery. The Giants ran him into the ground in 2010 a la Keith Foulke in 2004. The Giants are unwilling to pay him $6.8mm on a one-year deal despite the fact that they could use a power arm in their bullpen. Signing him to anything but an incentives-laden make-good one-year deal a la Beltre is asking for another Bobby Jenks-style waste. Let the Dodgers take that risk.

[Corsi]

#RedSox plan to tender a contract to arbitration-eligible RHP Alfredo Aceves before tomorrow night's deadline

https://twitter.com/...251566930882560

[Corsi]

Heyman:

pitching-rich #braves plan to non-tender jurrjens

https://twitter.com/...252379044577280

[Soxfan in Fla]

Heyman:https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/274252379044577280

That is one I would look into.

[MoGator71]

That is one I would look into.

Weren't there rumors of Ellsbury for Jurrjens last offseason? Or was that just some media speculation/what-iffing that I'm misremembering? I'd look into him too, though if they bring him in that fills the rotation barring other moves. Is everyone comfortable rolling with Buchholz-Lester-Jurrjens-Doubront-Lackey?

[JakeRae]

Weren't there rumors of Ellsbury for Jurrjens last offseason? Or was that just some media speculation/what-iffing that I'm misremembering? I'd look into him too, though if they bring him in that fills the rotation barring other moves. Is everyone comfortable rolling with Buchholz-Lester-Jurrjens-Doubront-Lackey?

I'm not comfortable with the idea of including Jurrjens in the rotation, period. There is a reason he is getting non-tendered and it is because he isn't particularly good. I don't like the idea of bringing a low K-rate pitcher who has been seeing his HR% trend in the wrong direction for years now into this division and this park.

[brs3]

I'm not comfortable with the idea of including Jurrjens in the rotation, period. There is a reason he is getting non-tendered and it is because he isn't particularly good. I don't like the idea of bringing a low K-rate pitcher who has been seeing his HR% trend in the wrong direction for years now into this division and this park.

Likely not a great pickup, but he has great SSS numbers against the AL

[maufman]

The Braves will non-tender Jurrjens because he's out of options and earned $5.5mm last year -- not necessarily because they think he's a useless player. That said, he has a career SIERA of 4.50, and with the move from the NL to the AL and into a less pitcher-friendly ball park, the odds of him being more than a potentially serviceable 5th starter are remote.

Normally, pitchers looking for one-year, make-good contracts have zero interest in Boston. Because Jurrjens has two years left before free agency, however, he might be willing to sign in Boston if we offer two guaranteed years. Personally, I don't like Jurrjens enough to make that commitment and would prefer to look for a one-year salary dump (Bruce Chen is rumored to be available, for example), but if you think Jurrjens might be one of those rare SPs who can consistently outperform his peripherals -- and he was building a nice case for himself in that regard prior to 2012 -- I could see rolling the dice on such a deal.

[Corsi]

Scott Atchison told WEEI.com Friday afternoon that the Red Sox have informed the 36-year-old reliever that they will not be tendering him a contract, making Atchison a free agent for a second straight season.

Atchison was non-tendered a year ago, choosing to re-sign with the Red Sox.
"I would like to stay in Boston," he said by phone, "but now we're going to have to see what's out there."

http://www.weei.com/...ntract-atchison

Edited by Corsi, 30 November 2012 - 03:19 PM.

[Corsi]

RedSox expected to non-tender Ryan Sweeney, source says.

https://twitter.com/...627831823216640

[Red(s)HawksFan]

#RedSox do not tender 2013 contracts to RHP Scott Atchison, LHP Rich Hill & OF Ryan Sweeney. All 3 become free agents

@RedSox

[Savin Hillbilly]

What do we think the chances are that any or all of those three come back?

Edited by Savin Hillbilly, 30 November 2012 - 07:10 PM.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

What do we think the chances are that any or all of those three come back?

I wouldn't be surprised to see either of the pitchers back on minor league deals. It's exactly what happened with both of them last year.

[mabrowndog]

Atchison - Re-signs on a minor league contract, knowing full well that if he doesn't make the club out of Spring Training he'll be at the bottom of the pecking order as far as mid-season call-ups go since he's out of options and would require the Sox to play roster games. His daughter's access to Boston medical care proves the greater priority, and pitching for the Pawsox means he doesn't have to uproot his family.

Hill - Returns on a minor league deal to continue rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Whether he ultimately rejoins the club once healthy will depend on if the team trades Miller and/or Breslow.

Sweeney - Vaya con dios.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Hill as a non-tender confuses me. I guess he's never healthy, but a lot of upside an this team has oodles of cash, right? Although, it probably came down to a roster spot and they like Breslow and Milller better.

I'll never understand why Sweeney wasn't dropped after the bullshit he pulled last year.

[Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat]

I would be very surprised if Breslow was in the conversation.
It probably came down to Miller vs Hill. Maybe they like Miller better, or maybe they just think it's more likely that Hill comes back on a minor league deal.

[bosockboy]

They have Breslow, Morales and Miller from the left side. They have enough to let Hill go. Sadly, when healthy he's the best of the bunch.

[SoxScout]

Unless his arm is gone, and he pitched the whole last month of the season, I don't see how Hill is worth less than someone like Beato. One guy is a dime a dozen, the other, if he throws one healthy inning in ST instantly becomes gold on the trade front.

[bombdiggz]

Hill seems like a reasonable non-tender candidate to me. Not because he isn't talented when healthy, but because he is one of the most likely to return on an minor league deal (ditto for Atchison) as he continues to rehab. And if he doesn't, given the depth the Sox have of LH relievers, it's not much of a risk if he doesn't ink the minor league deal.

...but a lot of upside an this team has oodles of cash, right? Although, it probably came down to a roster spot and they like Breslow and Milller better

I'd say it's 100% about the roster spot.

Edited by bombdiggz, 01 December 2012 - 10:17 PM.

[lexrageorge]

As well as Hill pitched last season, he's going to be 33, missed a lot of time last season, and his spot on the 40 man was one of the more expendable. Morales can spot start, Miller is younger, and Breslow is healthy. Hopefully he's able to come back on a minor league deal, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him part ways either.

[Cellar-Door]

Not sure why anyone would be surprised at a Rich Hill non-tender his last 3 years:
19.2 IP
8 IP
4 IP