332 replies to this topic

[E5 Yaz]

While efforts to acquire Boston lefty Jon Lester appear to have cooled, the Royals remained linked to Tampa Bay in discussions for right-handers James Shields and Jeremy Hellickson; and with the New York Mets for knuckleballer R.A. Dickey.

http://www.kansascit...ook-royals.html

Edited by E5 Yaz, 03 December 2012 - 10:48 PM.

[koufax32]

I have this unsettling picture in my mind of BC on the phone with Kansas City asking for Myers + with Farrell nodding approvingly in the background.

[MartyBarrettMVP]

FWIW, Rosenthal:

Sources tell me and @jonmorosi that#Royals may be at critical stage in decision on whether to trade Myers for an SP such as#Rays’ Shields.

https://twitter.com/...526143769812994

[redsoxstiff]

In a word... No...

[Doctor G]

If they are willing to move Lester why not call Milwaukee and ask for Hart.

[Corsi]

Royals meeting around 11 CT to discuss plans. James Shields heavy on the mind, but source says deal still isn't close.

https://twitter.com/...550944072822784

[JakeRae]

If they are willing to move Lester why not call Milwaukee and ask for Hart.

Why would the Red Sox ever consider trading Lester for Corey Hart? The point of trading for Myers is that he has the potential to be a middle of the order bat and perennial All Star. Corey Hart is an aging corner outfielder who doesn't play very good defense and is coming off a season where his strikeout rate spiked. He does hit HR, but his best season is less valuable than any of Lester's seasons since 2008 except last year. Additionally, Hart is only signed for 1 more season and is likely to be overpaid after that. A Lester for Hart trade would make the Red Sox worse next year, a lot worse the year after that, and would potentially hurt the long term farm system as there is a very good chance Hart isn't worth a qualifying offer at the end of this season.

[bombdiggz]

If they are willing to move Lester why not call Milwaukee and ask for Hart.

I think they are willing to move Lester if it is for a guy that could anchor their lineup for the next 6 years while being cost controlled throughout. As solid of a player as Corey Hart is, he isn't that guy.

[Yaz4Ever]

Ben, this could be your Slocumb trade (not quite, but close). Pull the trigger.

[Paradigm]

Hypothetical: Texas calls you up and offers Olt + two lesser prospects for Lester. Yes or no?

[Yaz4Ever]

Yes but I'd prefer Myers right now.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Hypothetical: Texas calls you up and offers Olt + two lesser prospects for Lester. Yes or no?

Where would he play?

[knucklecup]

I strongly dislike the idea of trading Lester after his down year.

In four seasons from 2008 through 2011, he was arguably the best left handed starter in the game. You would lose the argument but the fact that it can be made makes me hesitant to trade him at his low point - it's simply bad business.

It helps that he's incredibly affordable and you're not forced to trade him to a big market team, cutting the small market teams - KC for instance - out of the bidding in the process.

Basically put, I'm okay trading Lester in the right deal. I'm not sure that Olt or Myers are the right deal.

Edited by knucklecup, 09 December 2012 - 06:53 PM.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Basically put, I'm okay trading Lester in the right deal. I'm not sure that Oly or Myers are the right deal.

I'm asking this sincerely, so please don't take it as an incredulous dismissal of your position. If Myers isn't the right deal, then what is?

[nvalvo]

I don't believe that Olt would be the right deal.

I'm of the school that the Sox should use their cap room to effectively buy young players, so I would want a deal that sent Lester and money to KC for Myers and as good a pitching prospect as you could get. The value for KC is a potential Ace SP, all expenses paid.

The Rangers aren't as good a fit, because they can afford Lester or a top-tier FA SP, so they aren't as motivated to send a top-flight prospect back. If we're dealing Lester, we want to squeeze as much prospect value out of that deal as we can. That means dealing with a revenue-constrained club.

If Paradigm's hypothetical arrived, it would depend on the quality of the additional prospects, I guess (I think Olt is not quite up to Myers level for age/level reasons). But I don't see why the Rangers would make that offer, for the reasons above; of course, I wouldn't have offered Olt for RA Dickey, but it sounds like the Mets turned that down.

So... beats me.

[knucklecup]

I'm asking this sincerely, so please don't take it as an incredulous dismissal of your position. If Myers isn't the right deal, then what is?

This isn't an ex girlfriend situation and you're not unnecessarily being a jackass - I'm not going to be defensive in an instance like this.

My point being that shouldn't we be going after more established players?

The rumor began with Myers but why? A Royals source let it be known that he would be available in a deal for a bonafide ace. We have one of those aces who irrational Red Sox fans are looking to move based off of one down season, completely dismissing his previous four years of brilliance in the process.

So I see why the dots were connected / why the tires have been kicked.

But we should be going after Hosmer or Butler as the main cog in the deal, not Myers.

Butler, Holland perhaps?

If they're not willing to listen to that, move on. It's highly likely that he rebounds - he's affordable and under team control as well. There's no reason to rush into a deal for the sake of making a move.

[MartyBarrettMVP]

I don't think Sox fans are looking to move Lester as much as they are looking to acquire a top prospect who could shape the organization down the road. That being said, they don't make this move in a vacuum -- hence their asking Philly about Cliff Lee for Ellsbury.

[knucklecup]

I agree but again, why not a more established prospect who's had success at the ML level?

Justin Upton could be that difference maker for the next decade, he's available and has shown that he can hit at this level.

My mind is boggled on that one. We need help in the outfield. We need a middle of the order bat. Doesn't Justin Upton make a lot of sense for this team?

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Thanks for expanding on your post.

This isn't an ex girlfriend situation and you're not unnecessarily being a jackass - I'm not going to be defensive in an instance like this.

My point being that shouldn't we be going after more established players?

The rumor began with Myers but why? A Royals source let it be known that he would be available in a deal for a bonafide ace. We have one of those aces who irrational Red Sox fans are looking to move based off of one down season, completely dismissing his previous four years of brilliance in the process.

This isn't really true, though. People aren't looking to dump Lester because they think he's washed up. People wonder if he's in the middle of a slow decline, which is reasonable, but recognize he still has a lot of value. The kicker is how much control they have left with him. The answer is two years. Some don't see this team as being likely to seriously compete for a title in the next two years and would rather see that value turned into a long term asset. Myers is attractive for the combination of high upside and full pre-arb control.

So I see why the dots were connected / why the tires have been kicked.

But we should be going after Hosmer or Butler as the main cog in the deal, not Myers.

Butler, Holland perhaps?

This is a fair stance to take and I think few people who are in on Myers would be that upset if the team landed Butler or Hosmer instead... before the signing of Napoli. Now both Butler and Hosmer would be redundant or would make a more expensive player redundant. I suppose you could try Hosmer in LF and make Gomes redundant, but the value of a short term commitment over relatively few dollars is that they could always cut him or try to trade him if they made a deal for someone like that. Either way, Hosmer and Butler make less sense for the roster than Myers, would would be bumping Gomes or Nava from the roster, not Napoli or Papi.

Maybe that's why we heard about talks between the Sox and Royals before the Napoli signing and not much since, though. Ben may have been more interested in the guys you mention than Myers and talks may have cooled after the Sox filled 1B.

If they're not willing to listen to that, move on. It's highly likely that he rebounds - he's affordable and under team control as well. There's no reason to rush into a deal for the sake of making a move.

I think there's room for disagreement on how likely it is that he rebounds or what "rebounds" would entail, but I think most of the posters in this thread still see a lot of value in Lester and wouldn't be shocked to see him recover from 2012. The problem isn't just that he had a down season in 2012, though. It's the amount of control the team has left, the likelihood (or lack there of) of them contending in that window, and the concern that he may not be worth what he wants on the free agent market in two years.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

My mind is boggled on that one. We need help in the outfield. We need a middle of the order bat. Doesn't Justin Upton make a lot of sense for this team?

Sure. But do the Sox have the pieces to offer that would entice Arizona and are they willing to part with them if they do? I'm not sure the answer to either question would be yes.

[Cellar-Door]

I agree but again, why not a more established prospect who's had success at the ML level?

Justin Upton could be that difference maker for the next decade, he's available and has shown that he can hit at this level.

My mind is boggled on that one. We need help in the outfield. We need a middle of the order bat. Doesn't Justin Upton make a lot of sense for this team?

Sure, but what the DBacks want we don't have, they have been pretty consistent that they want a good young shortstop (Who can Hit) under team control for multiple years.

[knucklecup]

Thanks for expanding on your post.



This isn't really true, though. People aren't looking to dump Lester because they think he's washed up. People wonder if he's in the middle of a slow decline, which is reasonable, but recognize he still has a lot of value. The kicker is how much control they have left with him. The answer is two years. Some don't see this team as being likely to seriously compete for a title in the next two years and would rather see that value turned into a long term asset. Myers is attractive for the combination of high upside and full pre-arb control.



This is a fair stance to take and I think few people who are in on Myers would be that upset if the team landed Butler or Hosmer instead... before the signing of Napoli. Now both Butler and Hosmer would be redundant or would make a more expensive player redundant. I suppose you could try Hosmer in LF and make Gomes redundant, but the value of a short term commitment over relatively few dollars is that they could always cut him or try to trade him if they made a deal for someone like that. Either way, Hosmer and Butler make less sense for the roster than Myers, would would be bumping Gomes or Nava from the roster, not Napoli or Papi.

Maybe that's why we heard about talks between the Sox and Royals before the Napoli signing and not much since, though. Ben may have been more interested in the guys you mention than Myers and talks may have cooled after the Sox filled 1B.



I think there's room for disagreement on how likely it is that he rebounds or what "rebounds" would entail, but I think most of the posters in this thread still see a lot of value in Lester and wouldn't be shocked to see him recover from 2012. The problem isn't just that he had a down season in 2012, though. It's the amount of control the team has left, the likelihood (or lack there of) of them contending in that window, and the concern that he may not be worth what he wants on the free agent market in two years.

I don't disagree with anything you're saying but do have some points to make:

- In regards to not being competitive over the next two years... I'm on the side of the fence that believes they're not far off from competing.

- Like I said, I agree with the idea of trading Lester. I just want a more established player for such a hot commodity and believe that's what we should be on the lookout for, not a Myers or Olt type who aren't the "sure things" that Justin Upton is.

- They're still in the market for help on the corners even with the Vic and Napoli signings. With his ability to catch and Gomes' inefficiencies against right handed pitching, I feel as if we could find at bats for a cornerstone of the franchise like Hosmer and Butler. I love Daniel Nava but I would "bump" him from the roster for the right guy.

[knucklecup]

Sure. But do the Sox have the pieces to offer that would entice Arizona and are they willing to part with them if they do? I'm not sure the answer to either question would be yes.

Lester wouldn't be an intriguing option for them? An Ellsbury deal to Seattle for prospects who we flip to Arizona?

Where there's a will there's a way.

Sure, but what the DBacks want we don't have, they have been pretty consistent that they want a good young shortstop (Who can Hit) under team control for multiple years.

That's who they wanted from Texas but that doesn't mean that's what they're exclusively looking for.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

- They're still in the market for help on the corners even with the Vic and Napoli signings. With his ability to catch and Gomes' inefficiencies against right handed pitching, I feel as if we could find at bats for a cornerstone of the franchise like Hosmer and Butler. I love Daniel Nava but I would "bump" him from the roster for the right guy.

While Butler is proven, I think you're overrating him. He's not a cornerstone bat and he's a DH that can passably play 1B with only three years control left. He's a nice player but he's not a franchise player.

And I'm interested in why you would prefer Hosmer, even if we hadn't just signed Napoli. He hasn't exactly impressed so far. If you're trumpeting him I'd think it would be because of his hype as a prospect, which while it was high praise, was not at the level of Myers, who also plays a premium position. If you're willing to go for Hosmer in hopes of him living up to his potential, I don't see why you're unwilling to buy into Myers' potential.

[knucklecup]

While Butler is proven, I think you're overrating him. He's not a cornerstone bat and he's a DH that can passably play 1B with only three years control left. He's a nice player but he's not a franchise player.

And I'm interested in why you would prefer Hosmer, even if we hadn't just signed Napoli. He hasn't exactly impressed so far. If you're trumpeting him I'd think it would be because of his hype as a prospect, which while it was high praise, was not at the level of Myers, who also plays a premium position. If you're willing to go for Hosmer in hopes of him living up to his potential, I don't see why you're unwilling to buy into Myers' potential.

I didn't initially give an example for this reason.

I probably overrate Butler because I've been a fan of his / had him on my fantasy team expecting his 2012 production for the last three years.

I think you're underrating his bat but that's beside the point. He's not the guy I want for Lester given the fact that he's only under team control for another three years and his defense is terrible.

Hosmer had a down 2012 but he was pretty darn good as a 21 year old in 2011. He's more highly touted than Myers as well.

Thinking about this now, I don't think I'd trade Lester for Myers, Hosmer or Butler. They all have issues and quite frankly, you can get solid production at first base fairly easily these days. Adam Laroche for example can't find a team to give him three years when he was a far superior player last season in comparison to Victorino and Napoli who did get three year deals.

Edited by knucklecup, 09 December 2012 - 08:17 PM.

[radsoxfan]

Hosmer had a down 2012 but he was pretty darn good as a 21 year old in 2011. He's more highly touted than Myers as well.

Agreed. It's revisionist history to claim Myers is somehow more highly touted than Hosmer was.

Hosmer was the 3rd overall pick, and entered his age 21 season ranked as the #8 prospect in all of baseball. He then put up a 1.107 OPS in AAA before getting called up. Tough to get more hype than that.

For comparison sake, Myers was a 3rd round pick and entered his age 21 season ranked as the #28 prospect in baseball. He definitely had a very good season in AA and AAA last year, but I still see no reason to think Hosmer's "level of praise" as a prospect was less than Myers.

Hosmer's curiously poor 2012 in the majors certainly raises questions now, and I can see perhaps preferring Myers in a trade if scouts think there are long lasting holes in Hosmer's game for some reason. But just looking at their pedigrees, Hosmer was a beast.

Edited by radsoxfan, 09 December 2012 - 08:39 PM.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Agreed. It's revisionist history to claim Myers is somehow more highly touted than Hosmer was.

Hosmer was the 3rd overall pick, and entered his age 21 season ranked as the #8 prospect in all of baseball. He then put up a 1.107 OPS in AAA before getting called up. Tough to get more hype than that.

For comparison sake, Myers was a 3rd round pick and entered his age 21 season ranked as the #28 prospect in baseball. He definitely had a very good season in AA and AAA last year, but I still see no reason to think Hosmer's "level of praise" as a prospect was less than Myers.

Hosmer's curiously poor 2012 in the majors certainly raises questions now, and I can see perhaps preferring Myers in a trade if scouts think there are long lasting holes in Hosmer's game for some reason. But just looking at their pedigrees, Hosmer was a beast.

Hosmer was a higher pick, yes. But the season you reference, when he was the #8 prospect? Myers was the #10 prospect. He then got hurt and moved to the OF. He came back with a .987 OPS over AA/AAA while playing CF at an above average level and also RF at a plus level. He will be definitely top 5 if not top 3 going into his age 22 season. He may not have had the pre raft hype, but he is just as much of a beast as Hosmer was as a mLer. And Hosmers OPS you cite in AAA was in 26 games. He was an equal offensive player in the minors while playing a much less valuable position. It's obviously subjective but I think it's fair to say they were on par and Myers could easily pass him.

[OCD SS]

If anything, Hosmer's disappointing season goes toward the difficulty in accurately projecting prospects. Even the best of them are still essentially kids, and prone to immense variations in adjustment to the MLB game and performance.

[ShaneTrot]

Hosmer was a higher pick, yes. But the season you reference, when he was the #8 prospect? Myers was the #10 prospect. He then got hurt and moved to the OF. He came back with a .987 OPS over AA/AAA while playing CF at an above average level and also RF at a plus level. He will be definitely top 5 if not top 3 going into his age 22 season. He may not have had the pre raft hype, but he is just as much of a beast as Hosmer was as a mLer. And Hosmers OPS you cite in AAA was in 26 games. He was an equal offensive player in the minors while playing a much less valuable position. It's obviously subjective but I think it's fair to say they were on par and Myers could easily pass him.

No. Hosmer was an uber prospect. Myers is a very good prospect but as a 21 year old Hosmer put up a .799 OPS in the majors with 19 HR is 523 ABs. Omaha and the PCL are very hitter friendly places.

[Greg29fan]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal
Source: #Rays, #Royals close on major trade.

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal
Source: #Rays will send James Shields and Wade Davis to #Royalsfor Wil Myers and other prospects.

Edited by Greg29fan, 09 December 2012 - 10:47 PM.

[CaptainLaddie]

WOW. Shields _AND_ Davis for Myers?

That's a lot of talent for a guy who hasn't had a single major league at-bat.

[czar]

WOW. Shields _AND_ Davis for Myers?

That's a lot of talent for a guy who hasn't had a single major league at-bat.

On the flip side, it's 2 years of an above-average SP and essentially a RP for 6 years, cost-controlled of a guy whose MLE put him somewhere between average and superstar OF.

He could always flame out, but the ceiling of the division got a whole lot higher with Myers in it.

Edited by czar, 09 December 2012 - 10:55 PM.

[Rasputin]

WOW. Shields _AND_ Davis for Myers?

That's a lot of talent for a guy who hasn't had a single major league at-bat.

Other prospects, too.

But yeah, that's a lot. I think they're probably the favorite to win the Division but if Myers ends up being a bust they might just be screwed.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I guess I successfully blocked out much of last season from memory, no recollection of Davis being a reliever all year? Was that done for health reasons or just because they had better options? Because Davis would probably be the Royals #2, behind Shields. Strikes me as a nice deal for both sides, another bold move by Tampa, who will surely reallocate that money quickly and efficiently. If that's what it took to get Myers, the Sox never had a chance.

[czar]

I guess I successfully blocked out much of last season from memory, no recollection of Davis being a reliever all year? Was that done for health reasons or just because they had better options? Because Davis would probably be the Royals #2, behind Shields. Strikes me as a nice deal for both sides, another bold move by Tampa, who will surely reallocate that money quickly and efficiently. If that's what it took to get Myers, the Sox never had a chance.

He was in the bullpen because that's where he's actually more useful. His WAR was higher in 70 IP there that it was either year he was in the rotation.

Davis as a starter has an xFIP near 4.70. If he's your team's #2, you probably shouldn't even bother.

[RedOctober3829]

Rays still have Price, Hellickson, Moore, Cobb, and Archer. Their pitching surplus is borderline disgusting. Now they have a young core of Longoria, Jennings, and Myers.

Forgot about Niemann too.

Edited by RedOctober3829, 09 December 2012 - 11:07 PM.

[CaptainLaddie]

Well google suggests that he was a reliever all season, Rudy.

I think he's going back to the rotation. He's too talented not to be in the rotation, especially in Kansas City.

[Fishercat]

Shields has one really great season (2011) out of his last four years (two slighly above average seasons and one unmitigated disaster). He's 30-years old and has two years left on his deal. Davis was a very good RP last year, but you could probably throw anyone in the Tampa pen and make them a good relief pitcher. He's been a decidedly mediocre starter in his two years of opportunities. His K/9 as an SP was below six, his BB/9 above 3.

Killer deal for Tampa, absolutely killer IMO. And that doesn't even include the fact that Tampa's apparently getting two nice prospects as well. Absolutely absurd.

Edited by Fishercat, 09 December 2012 - 11:13 PM.

[Jed Zeppelin]

Well google suggests that he was a reliever all season, Rudy.

I think he's going back to the rotation. He's too talented not to be in the rotation, especially in Kansas City.

If they don't at least try to put him back in the rotation, then I have no idea why they'd even make a deal like this. Otherwise, two years from now they're looking at having a RP and nothing (after Shields walks) in return for what could be a true stud hitter along with whatever else they're sending to Tampa.

[templeUsox]

Shields has one really great season (2011) out of his last four years (two slighly above average seasons and one unmitigated disaster). He's 30-years old and has two years left on his deal. Davis was a very good RP last year, but you could probably throw anyone in the Tampa pen and make them a good relief pitcher. He's been a decidedly mediocre starter in his two years of opportunities. His K/9 as an SP was below six, his BB/9 above 3.

Killer deal for Tampa, absolutely killer IMO.

I think it's a great trade for Tampa without even knowing their full return. But James Shields is an excellent pitcher. In addition to consistent durability, he's always had optimistic peripherals and his xFIP reflects that. The year you call an unmitigated disaster just happen to be a combination of terrible luck and bad sequencing. If he's not an ace, he's an extremely strong #2 on a good team.

Edited by templeUsox, 09 December 2012 - 11:14 PM.

[czar]

I think he's going back to the rotation. He's too talented not to be in the rotation, especially in Kansas City.

He's really not. He's a 27 year-old who put up 2.5 years of below-average SP and is 3+ years removed from being on TB's top prospect lists.

He was an above-average RP last year, but baseball is littered with guys who were mediocre starters whose stuff played up in the pen. Given Davis SwStr% and K%; he seems destined to be one of those guys.

EDIT: Holy crap, the Rays got Odorizzi and Montgomery, too. I went from "ok, that's a bad trade" to "ok, they just got flat-out robbed."

[CaptainLaddie]

I am wrong about Davis. And now with the reports about the other players going to TB -- yikes.

[Fishercat]

I think it's a great trade for Tampa without even knowing their full return. But James Shields is an excellent pitcher. In addition to consistent durability, he's always had optimistic peripherals and his xFIP reflects that. The year you call an unmitigated disaster just happen to be a combination of terrible luck and bad sequencing. If he's not an ace, he's an extremely strong #2 on a good team.

It's a huge cherry pick of EV levels and different situations, of course, but Josh Beckett's ERA+ had been equal to or better than James Shields for every year of Shields career except for 2007 and 2012, and neither was by that much. We were actively trying to ship Beckett off. Shields doesn't have Beckett's red flags, but it's gotta be worth noting that it's very rare that Tampa SPs get injured. They just don't miss starts very often like most other teams do. I've gone back over the years and there has to be something organizational to account for repeatedly getting the most starts out of their Top 5 guys. I have no real confidence that continues for SPs when they leave the organization.

Either way, over the past four years, Shields has been an ace once, and a solid #2-#3 a couple times. He's been a good, consistent pitcher for Tampa.

[Hendu for Kutch]

They threw in Odorizzi and Montgomery too? I'd have traded Lester and a reliever for Myers, Odorizzi, and Montgomery without a second thought. Montgomery has fallen pretty far as a prospect, but we all know about Myers and Odorizzi is an excellent prospect.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Shields hasn't missed a start in five years, averages over 220 regular season innings annually. Now that he's a Royal, you just know he'll end up getting hurt.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Wow. That s a friggin heist for TB. If the Sox were really in this at some point they are going to regret not pulling the trigger.

[knucklecup]

Rob Neyer:

"My quick take: This is the worst trade in MLB history unless Wade Davis becomes a good starter, in which case it's only the second worst."

[Fishercat]

Shields hasn't missed a start in five years, averages over 220 regular season innings annually. Now that he's a Royal, you just know he'll end up getting hurt.

We joke about it, but the last few years, Tampa's Top 5 SPs (as in the 5 SPs with the most games started) combined for

2012: 149 GS
2011: 148 GS
2010: 154 GS
2009: 138 GS (Scott Kazmir was traded mid-season)
2008: 153 GS
2007: 132 GS (probably in part due to ineffectiveness from the 5 slot, but still)

Compared to Kansas City

2012: 121 GS
2011: 127 GS
2010: 128 GS
2009: 129 GS
2008: 141 GS
2007: 124 GS

It would not surprise me one bit that if James Shields leaves Tampa to Kansas City, that his likelihood of missing games would go up. There are a lot of factors for Tampa's consistent SP performance in terms of GS: high quality SP, careful medical attention, youth, etc. But every little thing counts.

[knucklecup]

What does this trade do for Lester's value?

My god.

[Yaz4Ever]

Shields hasn't missed a start in five years, averages over 220 regular season innings annually. Now that he's a Royal, you just know he'll end up getting hurt.

Can we hope he fails the physical and the trade gets cancelled, leaving Lester looking good to KC? Ugh! I wanted Myers on the Sox soooo badly, this is depressing.