332 replies to this topic

[SoxLegacy]

As for the farm system quality, in almost 20 years now of frquenting discussion forums, I think every forum in every year for every team has been convinved their teams current crop of prospects had 4 future stars and another dozen quality major leaguers. We didn't need Clemens because we had Suppan Rose and Pavano; we didn't need MoVaughn because we had Dernell Stenson, we didn't need Willie McGee because we had no place to play him. Lars Anderson was going to replace David Ortiz. Scott Cooper meant Wade Boggs could go to the Yankees.

Not disagreeing in that the Sox might have thought that Suppan, Rose, and Pavano would fill in nicely, but I think the fact that Clemens was 40-39 over the 4 years of his last contract and wearing a fat suit had more than a little something to do with why we parted ways with him. ,

[Plympton91]

You're right that the bulk of this discussion belongs in the rebuilding thread. I'm in favor of a balanced approach to free agency vs the farm and that's not what I'm reading in these threads.

I am indifferent on the lester for myers trade if it is straight up, one for one; and I think if paired with signing Grienke then it would be awesome.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Fair enough. I'd rather they signed Sanchez for 4 with a vesting option or 5 years than Greinke at 6 for what will likely be a higher AAV, but I can acknowledge the argument for Greinke over Sanchez. Either way, I'd like to see this trade happen.

[yecul]

Has there been a study of fa returns in the post steroids era? I do not buy into thenotion that spending money in free agency OS a requirement or even wise when it comes to building a team. Fleshing one out and filling holes? Sure, but buying a core is dubious.

Boston needs to learn from their mistakes and recent history, not just spend because it makes fans feel better.

[Edelpeddle]

I would take this with a serious grain of salt, but one of my friends is excited because the twitter account for someone on a sports talk radio station in KC is reporting the Royal are close to acquiring a front end starter.

@SportsTalkKC Hearing the #Royals are close to a deal for a front of the rotation starter... Details to come!

http://twitter.com/SportsTalkKC

[ShaneTrot]

I live in KC. Its nice here, the Royals stadium is a great place to watch a game, Boulevard makes good beer and the BBQ is sublime. Every Royals fan hates this proposed deal. Royals fans are an angry bunch because Glass took public money to renovate the stadium and has not spent more money on the team.They all think Myers is a middle of the line-up, sure-thing, >.900 OPS guy. They said the same thing about Hosmer last year. The perception among the educated fans is the Sox are trying to dump a broken Lester and steal the next Trout.

[Cellar-Door]

I would take this with a serious grain of salt, but one of my friends is excited because the twitter account for someone on a sports talk radio station in KC is reporting the Royal are close to acquiring a front end starter.

@SportsTalkKC Hearing the #Royals are close to a deal for a front of the rotation starter... Details to come!

http://twitter.com/SportsTalkKC

Based on his twitter feed, it appears he thinks they are trading for Jair Jurrjens. So I would assume he knows nothing.

[SoxScout]

What's next, reports from FakeLarryLucchino and NotGMCherington?

[Corsi]

What's next, reports from FakeLarryLucchino and NotGMCherington?

I think that's Cherington's verified account, actually.

[SoxScout]

"I talked to him," said Farrell of the rumor. "That was a rumor that was started based on interest by another team. As I talked to Jon, when you’re a talented player and a good player, it’s not uncommon for teams to ask."

"I know this -- he’s extremely motivated right now, he’s very much entrenched in his offseason program and looking forward to getting started on 2013," Farrell said of Lester, who struggled through a 9-14 campaign with a 4.82 ERA in 205 1/3 innings in 2012. "We can’t worry about opinions and perceptions of others to maintain your focus on the work you’re doing now. He’s healthy. He’s talented. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be a very good pitcher again."

http://www.weei.com/...d-rumors-lester

[Soxfan in Fla]

Interesting comment from Farrell. Based on that I don't there is much interest on the Sox end of doing the trade.

[Trautwein's Degree]

Interesting comment from Farrell. Based on that I don't there is much interest on the Sox end of doing the trade.

Yeah, the best way to increase the value of a player prior to a trade is to trash him and say you can't wait to dump him on some suckas.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Interesting comment from Farrell. Based on that I don't there is much interest on the Sox end of doing the trade.

Funny, I had the opposite reaction. It seemed like a surprisingly dispassionate, arms-length kind of comment, not a real gung-ho "Jon's our guy, and he's not going anywhere" kind of thing. My gut response to reading it was "wow, maybe Lester's really gone."

[SoxScout]

alexspeier: Cherington on whether Sox would trade One of 4 identified starters: 'We're in perhaps a different situation than we've been in the past......We have to be open-minded. Lost 93 games...Building best team for 2013 that doesn't get in way of building a great team for a long time'

[Yaz4Ever]

That quote makes me feel much better than the one from Farrell. C'mon Ben, get Myers.

[sodenj5]

If he manages to get Myers for Lester, after dumping all those contracts on the Dodgers, where does this put Ben in the pantheon of Sox GMs? Those would be 2 very bold (one being probably the boldest move in the history of the franchise), yet very smart moves in his short time as Sox GM.

It seems like he has a clear vision, and that's make the Sox, not only a better team now, but more importantly, a better team for the future, even if it means taking a half step back to take two steps forward. I think the training wheels are off on Ben, and you have to really like what you see from him thus far.

[P'tucket, rhymes with...]

Funny, I had the opposite reaction. It seemed like a surprisingly dispassionate, arms-length kind of comment, not a real gung-ho "Jon's our guy, and he's not going anywhere" kind of thing. My gut response to reading it was "wow, maybe Lester's really gone."

Isn't it nice to have a manager who's capable of speaking in tactful, diplomatic terms again? I'd make a fair wager that whatever he said to Lester, Lester didn't walk away from the conversation feeling like he had been shit on.

[Captaincoop]

If he manages to get Myers for Lester, after dumping all those contracts on the Dodgers, where does this put Ben in the pantheon of Sox GMs?

Shouldn't we wait to see how the trade actually works out before having that discussion? If Myers turns into Manny Ramirez, and Lester continues to suck, then sure, it's a historically awesome deal. But what if Myers is Andy Marte?

[MoGator71]

Shouldn't we wait to see how the trade actually works out before having that discussion? If Myers turns into Manny Ramirez, and Lester continues to suck, then sure, it's a historically awesome deal. But what if Myers is Andy Marte?

Especially considering his prior moves have been pretty underwhelming at best. I'm thinking Lowrie and Reddick, as I don't think dumping Scutaro was his call (or a particularly bad move). And if he really throws a buttload of money at mediocrities like Swisher, Ross, and Napoli then I'm hesitant to heap praise upon him for being in the right place at the right time to accept a gift from the Dodgers.

[Sprowl]

I'm not convinced that we'll never see Lester as good again as 2008-2010. Dropping K-rates are not always a problem if BB-rates also drop. Furthermore, I think his cutter will get its mojo back as soon as Lester can integrate it into his lower arm angle. He lost a little bit of his pinpoint command at the RHB's ankles. I see Lester's future as a Steve Carlton trajectory, with a breaking pitch so good that he can get past declining velocity. If Farrell can help Lester regain his old angle, that would probably help.

That is not to say I'm against Myers-for-Lester, since I know nothing about Myers, and in principle favor a long-term investment over this year's team. If Myers takes a year or two to mature into a star, that is acceptable, given the underwhelming prospects of the Red Sox 2013.

[Rough Carrigan]

That quote makes me feel much better than the one from Farrell. C'mon Ben, get Myers.

Amen. That quote sort of crystallizes a distinction I was trying to get at but couldn't quite come up with.

Building the best possible Sox team for 2013 might not be the same as building the next Sox team that can be a multi-year contender for a championship.

[E5 Yaz]

Edes:

•Cherington said that he'll have a better sense in Nashville whether the Sox will address their needs more through trades or free agent signings. "Coming off the year we had, maybe in light of that, teams not surprisingly are inquiring about things that maybe they haven't in the past," Cherington said. "Look, we have to be open-minded when you have a year like this."

•Asked if the Sox would entertain trading a starting pitcher, Cherington said: "Anything is possible, but it certainly gets harder to do that."

http://espn.go.com/b...varnway-updates

alexspeier: Cherington on whether Sox would trade One of 4 identified starters: 'We're in perhaps a different situation than we've been in the past......We have to be open-minded. Lost 93 games...Building best team for 2013 that doesn't get in way of building a great team for a long time'

Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe
Cherington threw cold water on the idea of trading one of his starters.

Britton:
Cherington did add later Saturday that, in trade conversations, he has been reminded again and again that "the value of young, controllable players is really, really high and understandably so."

http://blogs.provide...pen-minded.html

Edited by E5 Yaz, 01 December 2012 - 03:03 PM.

[Savin Hillbilly]

And if he really throws a buttload of money at mediocrities like Swisher, Ross, and Napoli then I'm hesitant to heap praise upon him for being in the right place at the right time to accept a gift from the Dodgers.

Ross, OK, but Swisher and Napoli are not mediocrities.

Among 41 major league right fielders with qualifying PA over the past three years, here's how Swisher ranks:

wOBA: 6
OPS: 7
OBP: 4
HR: 5
BB: 3

And out of 39 qualifying first basemen, here's where Napoli ranks over that three-year span:

wOBA: 8
OPS: 7
OBP: 12
HR: 9
BB: 17

(Note that he racked up that 9th-out-of-39 rank in HR despite averaging only about 450 PA a year, thanks to the extra rest he's gotten as a part-time catcher.)

These guys are very good hitters. There's nothing mediocre about them, except for Napoli's C defense.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

First, what quotes is Abraham reading? He's been obstinately consistent in his dismissal of the possibility of Lester being traded for Myers no matter what anyone else is saying.

Second, is "have to be open minded" going to be this year's catch phrase? Seems like a nice way of saying "Yes, we'll trade Lester (or insert name here) if it will make the team better."

[lexrageorge]

I don't understand why folks have a problem with Farrell's comments. He's the manager, and he's not going to comment about trades that haven't happened (and will likely never happen). Instead, he did everything he could to stick up for his pitcher, who may or may not react well to these trade rumors.

As for Abraham, he's really an annoying idiot. It wasn't his story, so he's going to do everything he can to discredit it. If there's anything that Cherington threw cold water on, it's likely the idea the Sox would be willing to trade Lester plus top prospects to get Myers plus a bunch of bad contracts. I'm glad to see Cherington is smarter than that.

[MoGator71]

Ross, OK, but Swisher and Napoli are not mediocrities.

Among 41 major league right fielders with qualifying PA over the past three years, here's how Swisher ranks:

wOBA: 6
OPS: 7
OBP: 4
HR: 5
BB: 3

And out of 39 qualifying first basemen, here's where Napoli ranks over that three-year span:

wOBA: 8
OPS: 7
OBP: 12
HR: 9
BB: 17

(Note that he racked up that 9th-out-of-39 rank in HR despite averaging only about 450 PA a year, thanks to the extra rest he's gotten as a part-time catcher.)

These guys are very good hitters. There's nothing mediocre about them, except for Napoli's C defense.

Those ranks for Napoli surprise me. I had no idea he compared as favorably with other 1B offensively. As a C certainly, but those ranks among 1B are eye-opening. He did have a monster 2011.

I like Swisher as a hitter, I'm just not convinced he has the range to play RF at Fenway regularly.

[E5 Yaz]

The Royals, from all appearances, might be willing to part with Myers (or Hosmer) to obtain Shields or Lester. They seem unwilling to do so to acquire Dickey, a 38-year-old knuckleballer.

http://www.kansascit...l#storylink=cpy

Edited by E5 Yaz, 02 December 2012 - 06:12 PM.

[RedOctober3829]

http://www.kansascit...l#storylink=cpy

Hosmer?? Do it Ben.

[Andrew]

Holy crap, Dickey is 38? He was 28 in my mind. Sheesh.I guess I just completely blocked out any memory of his time with the Rangers.

[MoGator71]

Holy crap, Dickey is 38? He was 28 in my mind. Sheesh.I guess I just completely blocked out any memory of his time with the Rangers.

I distinctly recall a Sunday night game he pitched against the Sox down there. I want to say it completed a 3-game sweep in either '03 or '04, and he wasn't throwing a knuckler yet but rather something called "the thing" that the ESPN guys had elevated to gyroball-esque mythology.

And I would be all over Lester-for-Hosmer.

[sodenj5]

Wow. Hosmer or Myers and I would be elated. Hosmer struggled, but all his underlying stats were trending in the right direction last year. He just had no luck and was in a season long slump.

He could easily turn around and put out a monster year and he's still only 23.

[nvalvo]

I'm not sure I see why Hosmer would be so much better than Myers. He has a small and mixed MLB track record, but the two players have extremely similar high-minors lines at basically-identical ages. Hosmer had a touch more OPS and was promoted more aggressively by a few months, while Myers has hit for more power in the minors.

I expect Hosmer to bounce back from his rough 2012, but while one could argue he's already gotten his rookie jitters out of his system, he has fewer years of team control remaining. I see them as players of fairly similar value.

Just to be clear: I'd love to add either to the organization.

[koufax32]

Hosmer doesn't make much sense now with Napoli at first for two years. It looks like Myers or bust. I just hope Farrell's Lester love doesn't get in the way of something happening here.

[Drek717]

Hosmer doesn't make much sense now with Napoli at first for two years. It looks like Myers or bust. I just hope Farrell's Lester love doesn't get in the way of something happening here.

Now that they've landed Napoli I think trying to contend in 2013 and 2014 will get in the way more than Farrell ever could.

If they add Swisher or Hamilton the starting lineup is basically set and looks pretty damn solid, without sacrificing any prospects.

If after that they trade for Gavin Floyd or sign Anibal Sanchez, add another bullpen arm (Brian Wilson?) and a SS placeholder (Stephen Drew?) they'd have the makings of a pretty damn competitive team assuming Lester can step back up to at least a high end #2 starter.

That's assuming they can't find another big move to improve the team both short and long term, like trading for Asdrubal Cabrera or Elvis Andrus to stabilize SS.

I think they're going to see this team as too close to being back in the playoff hunt to start sacrificing potential front line starters for untested prospects, no matter how high the ceiling of said prospect might be.

It would be interesting to see them try a Salty for Floyd, Lester for Myers, then sign Anibal Sanchez kind of three step move though.

Edited by Drek717, 03 December 2012 - 01:49 PM.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I think they're going to see this team as too close to being back in the playoff hunt to start sacrificing potential front line starters for untested prospects, no matter how high the ceiling of said prospect might be.

It would be interesting to see them try a Salty for Floyd, Lester for Myers, then sign Anibal Sanchez kind of three step move though.

I think it takes more than Napoli to make a potential contender so I can absolutely see them still trading Lester instead of signing Hamilton, if Hamilton won't come down below 4 or 5 years. There are a ton of moving parts here. I agree that your proposed three step plan would be very interesting and would be a great way to move closer to the playoffs while still taking advantage of the Royals being willing to part with one of the top prospects in all of baseball.

Of course, there are several paths to the playoffs next year, and some would be even more effective (in the short term) than that. Keeping Lester, signing Sanchez and Hamilton and picking up Brian Wilson and Stephen Drew would arguably be the best series of moves for 2013 and 2013 alone. But there are a slew of ways the rest of the off season could play out that would improve this team both in the short term and long term.

My preference would be to sign Sanchez, trade for Floyd and pull the trigger on Lester for Myers as I think that does make them a playoff contender in 2013 while also setting up the team for the next 4 or 5 years. So in short, I agree with you.

[Drek717]

I think it takes more than Napoli to make a potential contender so I can absolutely see them still trading Lester instead of signing Hamilton, if Hamilton won't come down below 4 or 5 years. There are a ton of moving parts here. I agree that your proposed three step plan would be very interesting and would be a great way to move closer to the playoffs while still taking advantage of the Royals being willing to part with one of the top prospects in all of baseball.

Of course, there are several paths to the playoffs next year, and some would be even more effective (in the short term) than that. Keeping Lester, signing Sanchez and Hamilton and picking up Brian Wilson and Stephen Drew would arguably be the best series of moves for 2013 and 2013 alone. But there are a slew of ways the rest of the off season could play out that would improve this team both in the short term and long term.

My preference would be to sign Sanchez, trade for Floyd and pull the trigger on Lester for Myers as I think that does make them a playoff contender in 2013 while also setting up the team for the next 4 or 5 years. So in short, I agree with you.

Its not just signing Napoli though, as at this point does anyone really think we're missing out on both Swisher and Hamilton? I'm pretty confident that short of them both getting stupid money we're signing one of them. If it's Swisher probably on a 3-4 year deal, if it's Hamilton probably more like 5.

That doesn't completely block a deal for Myers as you can then give Myers another year in AAA (which he could probably use) and after that move Swisher/Hamilton to LF and let Myers start in RF, with Kalish taking over in center if he's working out, buying Bradley another season before he needs to be MLB ready.

It would require a serious willingness to gamble on Cherrington's part though, and that gamble would be with one of the more highly recognizable members of the club, third only to Pedroia and Ortiz. While it's the move I would prefer, it would require some serious chutzpah on BC's part to take a run at it. They'd need to do it soon too, before higher tier starters begin signing. If they can land Floyd in a trade they could then move Lester knowing they can land at least one good starter via FA, without Floyd they're looking at two starters via FA which is a tough position to be in.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Lurker Shanks shared a link with me via PM: http://www.overthemo...ed-sox-rotation

The argument is to trade for Dickey instead of Floyd. It's an interesting thought and would fill the same need. The advantage of going with Floyd is that he's consistently been the same solid but not spectacular pitcher for a long time now. He's been basically the same guy for 6 straight seasons and he's younger than Dickey to boot.

Of course, Dickey is a knuckleballer so his age isn't as big an issue as it would be otherwise, and he's coming off a spectacular season which caps off an excellent 3 season run where his ERA has been below 3.00 twice and his FIP and xFIP over that stretch have both been good.

For a one year deal, I could see the argument for Dickey over Floyd and both teams are looking for catching help.

Edit: Plus, it would feel "right" to have a knuckleballer on the roster.

Edit2: This might be more relevant in the Floyd thread. I'll repost there as well.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 03 December 2012 - 02:43 PM.

[SoxScout]

Sean_McAdam: The Mets are more than willing to listen on R.A. Dickey, but to date, according to a source, the Red Sox have shown no interest.
Sean_McAdam: Saltalamacchia would seem to be a piece in any talks for Dickey, but told that Mets believe they could do better at catcher.

[gammoseditor]

Lurker Shanks shared a link with me via PM: http://www.overthemo...ed-sox-rotation

The argument is to trade for Dickey instead of Floyd. It's an interesting thought and would fill the same need. The advantage of going with Floyd is that he's consistently been the same solid but not spectacular pitcher for a long time now. He's been basically the same guy for 6 straight seasons and he's younger than Dickey to boot.

Of course, Dickey is a knuckleballer so his age isn't as big an issue as it would be otherwise, and he's coming off a spectacular season which caps off an excellent 3 season run where his ERA has been below 3.00 twice and his FIP and xFIP over that stretch have both been good.

For a one year deal, I could see the argument for Dickey over Floyd and both teams are looking for catching help.

Edit: Plus, it would feel "right" to have a knuckleballer on the roster.

I'm not sure if this is what you meant but Floyd has not been more consistent than Dickey. It's true that Dickey improved last year, but he was pretty good the prior two years as well. I think Dickey is clearly the better pitcher, and the only negative on Dickey is what it would cost to get him. I'm hoping Dickey is plan A with Floyd in the mix for a backup plan.

[Drek717]

For a one year deal, I could see the argument for Dickey over Floyd and both teams are looking for catching help.

Edit: Plus, it would feel "right" to have a knuckleballer on the roster.

I'd prefer Dickey over Floyd as well, but there's already a rumor about Salty for Floyd that is a good fit for both teams, while Dickey would cost real prospects. The Mets would probably take Salty too, but they'd want a top 10 prospect along with, or Lavarnway and a lower prospect. I'm not crazy about giving away a top 10 guy from the farm for a one year rental on a 38 year old NL knuckleballer.

Dickey does have some real nice inter-league splits over the last three years though. If the Mets would do something like Salty and Iglesias for Dickey, allowing the Sox to then blow their load over Asdrubal Cabrera (maybe something like Barnes + Cecchini + a non-top 10 guy or two) there could be a way forward there.

[pokey_reese]

Lurker Shanks shared a link with me via PM: http://www.overthemo...ed-sox-rotation

The argument is to trade for Dickey instead of Floyd. It's an interesting thought and would fill the same need. The advantage of going with Floyd is that he's consistently been the same solid but not spectacular pitcher for a long time now. He's been basically the same guy for 6 straight seasons and he's younger than Dickey to boot.

Of course, Dickey is a knuckleballer so his age isn't as big an issue as it would be otherwise, and he's coming off a spectacular season which caps off an excellent 3 season run where his ERA has been below 3.00 twice and his FIP and xFIP over that stretch have both been good.

For a one year deal, I could see the argument for Dickey over Floyd and both teams are looking for catching help.

Edit: Plus, it would feel "right" to have a knuckleballer on the roster.

Edit2: This might be more relevant in the Floyd thread. I'll repost there as well.

As fun as it would be to have another knuckleballer on the team, it's a brutal way to break Lavarnway in. Does that mean that we abandon the hitting side of the platoon and make Ross Dickey's personal catcher? I feel like the 'personal catcher' thing is something that people have been eager to move away from for a while since it doesn't allow for optimal lineup creation, and creates bad dependencies for the pitchers.

Not necessarily a reason to avoid a deal if there is a fit, obviously, but something to think about.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I'm not sure if this is what you meant but Floyd has not been more consistent than Dickey. It's true that Dickey improved last year, but he was pretty good the prior two years as well. I think Dickey is clearly the better pitcher, and the only negative on Dickey is what it would cost to get him. I'm hoping Dickey is plan A with Floyd in the mix for a backup plan.

I just meant a longer track record of consistent play. Basically, Dickey picked up the knuckleball in 2005 but didn't start having great seasons until he got to NY in 2010. Part of it might be the NL East, part of it might be finally figuring out the right balance of pitches to throw as a knuckler. Either way, he's been really good for three years, Floyd has been good for 6.

Essentially, you know exactly what you're getting with Floyd; a good but not great pitcher.. You have a reasonable expectation of good to very good performance from Dickey.

[In my lifetime]

I do think the Napoli signing does give a sense of where the FO is going. It has been suggested in this thread that the RS would not be competing as one of the top half dozen teams in the next 3 years, and this give another strong reason to trade Lester. I believe the FO does not view their situation in that light. They cleared a lot of salary and feel they can better spend that money (and it would tough not to do better), while using the luxury cap number as more of a hard cap for the next few years (and maybe for the foreseeable future). However, they do intend to allocate a good part of the Punto-trade saved money and field a team that will be a playoff contender in 2013 and one of the pre-season favorites in 2014.

Therefore, I expect a potential Lester-Meyers trade or any trade of an established player for a prospect to be made on its own merits. Not under the additional factor of "well we aren't going to be competitive for a couple years, so we might as well get what we can for established players we control for 2 years as we build for the future."

A big market team who is willing to spend near the luxury cap, with a good GM and minor league infrastructure should be expected to field a team that figures to be competitive almost every year. Rightfully the RS FO does not believe they should punt or take a 2-3 seasons to rebuild and they will use all avenues of improving the team - draft, farm, trades, free agents.

[Drek717]

I do think the Napoli signing does give a sense of where the FO is going. It has been suggested in this thread that the RS would not be competing as one of the top half dozen teams in the next 3 years, and this give another strong reason to trade Lester. I believe the FO does not view their situation in that light.

This is a point I've been making all off-season. No matter what we all might think, this team does not view 2013 as a "lost" season already by any means. They just aren't going to give up future value to buy wins in 2013, they'll just use money to do that.

One thing I hope they're weighing appropriately heavily in these calculations though is future opportunity costs. Power hitters are a scarce commodity. Power hitters who don't have to play 1B, DH, or a bad LF are even harder to find. So the need to appreciate what Wil Myers offers is pretty critical here. He might be the kind of guy you don't get another shot at for 5+ years, and missing out on him could make it hard to fill Fenway's RF with a power bat that still plays good D long term.

[gammoseditor]

Joe McDonald tweeting that the Mets asked for Bogaerts and Bradley for Dickey. I think Soshers would be running through the streets with pitchforks if they did that.

[Drek717]

Joe McDonald tweeting that the Mets asked for Bogaerts and Bradley for Dickey. I think Soshers would be running through the streets with pitchforks if they did that.

And people wonder why the market for Dickey seems non-existent.

[Dalton Jones]

I think Lester is a tease. For whatever reason the whole does not equal the sum of his parts. Unless some stat geek can convince me that lefties his age with his service time blossom into VORP kings (is that still a metric?), I say trade him for this AAA KC phenom and hope for the best.

[j44thor]

I think Lester is a tease. For whatever reason the whole does not equal the sum of his parts. Unless some stat geek can convince me that lefties his age with his service time blossom into VORP kings (is that still a metric?), I say trade him for this AAA KC phenom and hope for the best.

Cliff Lee was almost out of baseball after posting a 6.29 ERA and 72 ERA+ during his age 28 season. During his age 29 season he went 22-3 and the rest is history. Lester was considerably better from age 23-28 as well. Obviously this means little to what the future holds for Lester but is at least one example of a pitcher who improved after 28.

[The Gray Eagle]

The first pitcher I looked at was Andy Pettitte. At age 27, his fifth full season in the majors, he had an ERA of 4.70, the worst of his career. His K-rate had fallen from 6.6 to 6.2 to 6.1 to 5.7 per 9. His walk rate had gone 2.9, 2.4, 3.6, 4.2 per 9.

A dozen years later, Pettitte is still going strong.

Jon Lester at age 28, his fifth full season in the majors, had an ERA of 4.82. Over the last 5 years, his K rate had gone 6.5, 10.0, 9.7, 8.5 to 7.3. Walk rate 2.8, 2.8, 3.6, 3.5, 3.0.

Pettitte's obviously not a perfect comp for Lester, but no one is. Both guys are big, strong lefties who stepped into the deep water of the AL East at a young age and did well, then had a relative off year in year 5.

No one knows how Lester's going to age, but pitchers have off years and then bounce back to their typical numbers all the time. Farrell said he thinks there are things wrong with Lester that he can definitely fix. I think he should get the chance to try.

[flymrfreakjar]

Cliff Lee was almost out of baseball after posting a 6.29 ERA and 72 ERA+ during his age 28 season. During his age 29 season he went 22-3 and the rest is history. Lester was considerably better from age 23-28 as well. Obviously this means little to what the future holds for Lester but is at least one example of a pitcher who improved after 28.

Speaking of which, does anyone know if Farrell had any involvement in Lee's resurgence? I know that seems to falls out of the "jurisdiction" of a director of player development, but I'm just curious.