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Colts at Patriots


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#1 RedOctober3829


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Posted 12 November 2012 - 03:06 PM

Andrew Luck vs. Tom Brady. The young gun vs. the standard-bearer. Hopefully, the defense shows up this week as they took a 2nd bye week against Buffalo. I'm very nervous about how Luck is going to shred this D. We all know Indy's defense is awful(worst DVOA rating coming into Week 10), so hopefully they can score enough points to offset the terrible D.

#2 RedOctober3829


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Posted 12 November 2012 - 03:46 PM

Luck Fever! CBS has moved Phil Simms and Jim Nantz from Chargers vs. Broncos to Colts vs. Patriots this weekend.


Neil Best, Newsday

https://twitter.com/sportswatch/status/268091817046720513
link to tweet
link to tweet

Better be the national game on CBS this week.

#3 jsinger121


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Posted 12 November 2012 - 03:53 PM

Neil Best, Newsday

https://twitter.com/sportswatch/status/268091817046720513
link to tweet
link to tweet

Better be the national game on CBS this week.


The Nantz team in Foxboro seals this at the National game on CBS. The Chargers have faded too much to be seen by anyone across the country while the Colts have the hot shot rookie QB and the feel good story of a team playing for their sick coach on leave.

#4 j44thor

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Posted 12 November 2012 - 04:49 PM

O/U should be about 100 for this game. The movable object vs. the resistible force can be the slogan for both defenses.

#5 LesterFan

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Posted 12 November 2012 - 05:35 PM

Patriots should not lose to this team.

#6 MarcSullivaFan

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Posted 14 November 2012 - 07:16 AM

Luck is fully capable of putting up 35+ points against this defense. He's the second or third best quarterback the Pats have faced this year.

That said, I don't see an area in which the Colts are better than the Patriots. Their run defense and offense is noticeably worse, as is their pass blocking and special teams. Like the Pats, they have a decent pass rush but a lousy secondary and they really cannot stop the run. The Pats should be able to run all over them and then destroy them with play action.

Luck has a huge home/away performance disparity. However, his two terrible road games were against the Jets and Bears--one above average and one superb pass defense. I wouldn't expect playIng in Foxboro to be a huge factor.

Absent a turnover fest, I dont see how the Colts stop this offense. The Colts' O will do enough to make us all uncomfortable, but the Pats will one by more than a touchdown. 38-24.

#7 lostjumper

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Posted 14 November 2012 - 11:36 AM

O great, nantz is announcing. Hopefully we'll hear alot of dejected calls as the pats run over the colts.

#8 jsinger121


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Posted 14 November 2012 - 12:39 PM


Mike Reiss@MikeReiss

Colts coach Bruce Arians confirms CB Vontae Davis & TE Coby Fleener are out Sunday. Means former Patriot Darius Butler starts at CB.



#9 tims4wins


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Posted 14 November 2012 - 12:44 PM

Can't see how their pass defense will stop Brady & Co

#10 dynomite

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Posted 14 November 2012 - 01:53 PM

Likewise, I can't really see how the Colts keep up with the Patriots in this game. This could be the home blowout we've been waiting for.

According to DVOA:
Colts overall defense: 32nd
Colts pass defense: 32nd
Colts run defense: 31st

And they're without Vontae Davis, far and away their best DB.

The Colts have already gotten blown out in two tough road games (Bears, Jets). The common theme? A combined 5 INTS by Luck in those 2 games.

The Pats should score another 35+ points. If Luck makes a rookie mistake or two, the game could get out of hand.

#11 Boston Brawler

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Posted 14 November 2012 - 04:12 PM

Any word on Hernandez yet? I'm not finding much on why he was held out Sunday and his outlook for this week.

Edit: Also, here is a link to the coverage maps.

http://www.the506.co.../2012/wk11.html

Edited by Boston Brawler, 14 November 2012 - 04:13 PM.


#12 Super Nomario


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Posted 14 November 2012 - 04:20 PM

Any word on Hernandez yet? I'm not finding much on why he was held out Sunday and his outlook for this week.

He practiced all last week (limited), so I imagine he'll do the same this week, but I doubt we'll know anything before Sunday.

#13 soxhop411


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Posted 14 November 2012 - 05:46 PM

Any word on Hernandez yet? I'm not finding much on why he was held out Sunday and his outlook for this week.

Edit: Also, here is a link to the coverage maps.

http://www.the506.co.../2012/wk11.html

Neil Best, Newsday

https://twitter.com/sportswatch/status/268091817046720513
link to tweet
link to tweet

Better be the national game on CBS this week.

Go to hell CBS, For giving half the US denver

#14 drleather2001


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Posted 15 November 2012 - 09:27 AM

WHAT THE FUCK.

Why am I getting Denver/San Diego in Minnesota? The ONLY people I know that would rather have that game are fans of those two teams.

Fucking CBS. Went from having like 10 New England games on local TV last year to having 3 this year. The fucking team was in the Super Bowl for shit's sake!

#15 Ed Hillel


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Posted 15 November 2012 - 10:32 AM

What I don't understand is why they flexed this game and made it game of the week, but are only showing it in regional markets. Makes no sense to me.

#16 Mystic Merlin


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Posted 15 November 2012 - 11:01 AM

Further, why would anyone outside of the Denver and southern Cali markets prefer to see SD/DEN?

#17 soxhop411


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Posted 15 November 2012 - 11:14 AM

Further, why would anyone outside of the Denver and southern Cali markets prefer to see SD/DEN?


Southern Cali, has grown sick of SD themselves..

#18 aksoxfan

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 11:40 AM

Pissed here in Alaska, too.

#19 Super Nomario


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Posted 15 November 2012 - 12:37 PM

A crazy stat to me is that Andrew Luck is #2 in the league in % of deep passes (27.1% per http://wp.advancednf...ats.php?pos=QB; only Joe Flacco is more at 27.5%). I looked at one of their deep pass plays for The Flying Elvis: http://theflyingelvi...look-ahead.html

Ryan Fitzpatrick is 25th (17.6%) in this category, and Sam Bradford is 31st (15.6%), so while the Pats have done a better job the past two games at limiting the long passes, it will be interesting to see if it holds up Sunday.

#20 Ed Hillel


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Posted 15 November 2012 - 02:06 PM

I'm starting to get worried about Welker. X-Rays after the game, an he hasn't practiced all week. I assume he's out Sunday, I'm just hoping it's not serious.

#21 RedOctober3829


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Posted 15 November 2012 - 02:13 PM

I'm starting to get worried about Welker. X-Rays after the game, an he hasn't practiced all week. I assume he's out Sunday, I'm just hoping it's not serious.


If he doesn't practice tomorrow, he doesn't play. I think they should be able to put up a lot of points even if Welker is out.

#22 Morning Woodhead

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 03:30 PM

I'm starting to get worried about Welker. X-Rays after the game, an he hasn't practiced all week. I assume he's out Sunday, I'm just hoping it's not serious.


Guess we'll get a taste of the future.

#23 RedOctober3829


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Posted 15 November 2012 - 03:44 PM

Guess we'll get a taste of the future.


Danny Amendola plays for the Rams.

#24 Stitch01


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Posted 15 November 2012 - 03:53 PM

When did Welker ding himself on Sunday?

No Welker and no Hernandez on Sunday would be interesting in a bad way.

#25 RedOctober3829


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Posted 15 November 2012 - 05:01 PM

Jeff Howe@jeffphowe
On Welker, source said he participated in full pads in today's walkthrough before departing prior to practice. Sign he could play vs. Colts.


https://twitter.com/jeffphowe/status/269197805527134208
link to tweet
link to tweet

#26 Super Nomario


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Posted 15 November 2012 - 07:09 PM

Branch added to the injury report. Julian Edelman better eat his Wheaties.

#27 Super Nomario


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Posted 15 November 2012 - 07:17 PM

Guessing the inactives:

WR Welker
TE Hernandez
G Connolly
G Mankins
DE Scott
LB White
S Chung

#28 Rasputin


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Posted 15 November 2012 - 07:33 PM

Any word on Hernandez yet? I'm not finding much on why he was held out Sunday and his outlook for this week.

Edit: Also, here is a link to the coverage maps.

http://www.the506.co.../2012/wk11.html


Oooh, I think I get to see this.

#29 MarcSullivaFan

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 11:50 PM

A crazy stat to me is that Andrew Luck is #2 in the league in % of deep passes (27.1% per http://wp.advancednf...ats.php?pos=QB; only Joe Flacco is more at 27.5%). I looked at one of their deep pass plays for The Flying Elvis: http://theflyingelvi...look-ahead.html


I have no idea where to find this information, but having watched at least parts of all the Colts games, my sense is that an abnormally high number of Luck's deep completions have come off play action. He constantly has pass rushers in his grill.

As an aside, Burke's team efficiency rankings are counterintuitive to say the least. CAR is 5th? NE is 15th?

#30 Super Nomario


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Posted 16 November 2012 - 12:42 AM

I have no idea where to find this information, but having watched at least parts of all the Colts games, my sense is that an abnormally high number of Luck's deep completions have come off play action. He constantly has pass rushers in his grill.

As an aside, Burke's team efficiency rankings are counterintuitive to say the least. CAR is 5th? NE is 15th?

Burke has noted that his formulas consistently underrate New England (they assume a large factor of luck in turnovers, and don't account for "bend-but-don't break" tendencies). But the insane thing is that #15 ranking is #4 in the AFC - after Denver (#1) and Houston (#2), #3 - 13 are all NFC squads (#14 in Cincy). The bottom four teams and 7 of the bottom 8 are AFC teams.

Edited by Super Nomario, 16 November 2012 - 12:42 AM.


#31 epraz


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Posted 16 November 2012 - 07:23 AM

Burke has noted that his formulas consistently underrate New England (they assume a large factor of luck in turnovers, and don't account for "bend-but-don't break" tendencies). But the insane thing is that #15 ranking is #4 in the AFC - after Denver (#1) and Houston (#2), #3 - 13 are all NFC squads (#14 in Cincy). The bottom four teams and 7 of the bottom 8 are AFC teams.


FO agrees on the big picture. 7 of the top 20 teams are from the AFC and the the bottom 6 are all AFC.

Edited by epraz, 16 November 2012 - 07:23 AM.


#32 MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 07:28 AM

For all the worries about Indy's bad D but good offense, they are tied in points allowed with the Pats at 201, but they've scored 113 points fewer. Pats should roll.

#33 j44thor

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 09:36 AM

Shouldn't the Pats have rolled at home against BUF? Unless they are playing KC or JAX I don't think we can assume they will "roll" anyone at this point.

#34 BigSoxFan


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Posted 16 November 2012 - 10:28 AM

Shouldn't the Pats have rolled at home against BUF? Unless they are playing KC or JAX I don't think we can assume they will "roll" anyone at this point.


No kidding and especially since Welker may be hobbled and Hernandez may be out again. Regardless, all I care about is winning. I think you're going to see a much better team in 4-6 weeks as Hernandez/Talib get integrated. And maybe Chung's stubbed toe will heal as well.

#35 jsinger121


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Posted 16 November 2012 - 11:43 AM


Jeff Howe@jeffphowe

Mankins is the only practice absentee. Welker and Connolly return.



#36 There is no Rev


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Posted 16 November 2012 - 11:47 AM

I think everyone agrees that Luck is the real deal, and the following doesn't account for defensive or special teams, but let's lay out Patriots points scored versus Indy points scored in reverse-order Nate Silver style:

Points v. Points
Patriots Colts
Buffalo Bills 52 9 New York Jets
St. Louis Rams 45 17 Jacksonville Jaguars
Buffalo Bills 37 17 Cleveland Browns
Tennessee Titans 34 19 Tennessee Titans
Denver Broncos 31 21 Chicago Bears
Baltimore Ravens 30 23 Minnesota Vikings
New York Jets 29 23 Miami Dolphins
Seattle Seahawks 23 27 Jacksonville Jaguars
Arizona Cardinals 18 30 Green Bay Packers


#37 There is no Rev


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Posted 16 November 2012 - 11:51 AM

Further, why would anyone outside of the Denver and southern Cali markets prefer to see SD/DEN?


Is Peyton Fucking Manning really that goddamned popular or do the networks just think he is?

I'm not sure I want to know the answer to that.

#38 MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 12:10 PM

Shouldn't the Pats have rolled at home against BUF? Unless they are playing KC or JAX I don't think we can assume they will "roll" anyone at this point.


Bills have scored 50 more points than Indy and are a divisional rival. The Pats D looked ugly last week, but i think the Bills have a better offense than they get credit for.

I haven't watched Luck much, but I'm sure he's good. Just not as good as he's hyped up to be.

#39 tims4wins


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Posted 16 November 2012 - 12:12 PM

Bills have scored 50 more points than Indy and are a divisional rival. The Pats D looked ugly last week, but i think the Bills have a better offense than they get credit for.

I haven't watched Luck much, but I'm sure he's good. Just not as good as he's hyped up to be.


But they scored 59 in 2 games against the Pats... remove those 2 games and they average 21.4 per game compared to the Colts 20.7. But I agree their offense is underrated.

As for Luck, he relies a ton on playaction and rollouts. Pats have to contain him.

#40 Shelterdog


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Posted 16 November 2012 - 12:34 PM

Bills have scored 50 more points than Indy and are a divisional rival. The Pats D looked ugly last week, but i think the Bills have a better offense than they get credit for.

I haven't watched Luck much, but I'm sure he's good. Just not as good as he's hyped up to be.


I think people underestimate just how tough divisional games are. The BB Pats have never been undefeated in the division. The other divisional teams know you, they scheme all summer to beat you, they pick players specifically to challenge you, if you're a top dog in the division they'll always be highly, highly motivated to beat you. Cleveland, for example, has been awful the past half dozen years but they've usually played really tough against excellent Baltimore and Pitt teams? And in this case the Bills were 3-5 so they were essentially playing for their season.

I think there's a pretty good chance they shell the Colts but on any given Sunday, yadda yadda yadda. Pats 35 Colts 20.

#41 tims4wins


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Posted 16 November 2012 - 12:42 PM

I think people underestimate just how tough divisional games are. The BB Pats have never been undefeated in the division. The other divisional teams know you, they scheme all summer to beat you, they pick players specifically to challenge you, if you're a top dog in the division they'll always be highly, highly motivated to beat you. Cleveland, for example, has been awful the past half dozen years but they've usually played really tough against excellent Baltimore and Pitt teams? And in this case the Bills were 3-5 so they were essentially playing for their season.

I think there's a pretty good chance they shell the Colts but on any given Sunday, yadda yadda yadda. Pats 35 Colts 20.


This is a good point. Look at the NFC West. The same Rams team the Pats whupped beat Seattle at home and tied San Francisco on the road. Over the last 5 years, 8 teams total have gone undefeated in their divisions.

One thing you got wrong - the 2007 Pats were obviously undefeated in the division.

#42 Shelterdog


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Posted 16 November 2012 - 12:50 PM

This is a good point. Look at the NFC West. The same Rams team the Pats whupped beat Seattle at home and tied San Francisco on the road. Over the last 5 years, 8 teams total have gone undefeated in their divisions.

One thing you got wrong - the 2007 Pats were obviously undefeated in the division.


I am an idiot.

They've been undefeated in the division once. They lost divisonal games in all three 14-2 seasons.

Edited by Shelterdog, 16 November 2012 - 12:54 PM.


#43 tims4wins


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Posted 16 November 2012 - 12:51 PM

I am an idiot.


I believe that is a pre-qualification for joining

Edited by tims4wins, 16 November 2012 - 12:52 PM.


#44 LesterFan

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 01:14 PM

The Colts schedule the past 4 games was probably the easiest you could ask for and they barely won some of those games. Our offense is better than theirs, their defense is worse than ours. Patriots should win this something like 35-24 or so.

#45 jsinger121


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Posted 16 November 2012 - 02:31 PM


Albert Breer@AlbertBreer

Patriots TE Aaron Hernandez is expected to sit out Sunday's game vs. the Colts, I'm told. Been out since mid-October after re-injuring ankle



#46 RedOctober3829


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Posted 16 November 2012 - 02:34 PM

Jesus effing Christ. Why did he come back if he wasn't fully healthy the first time?

#47 tims4wins


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Posted 16 November 2012 - 02:37 PM

Welker hopeful to play

#48 Ed Hillel


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Posted 16 November 2012 - 02:43 PM

I really don't care about the regular season much anymore at this point. I'd rather have the four seed and a healthy team than the two without Herb, Chung, Welker, Gronk, Mankins, etc. If they're hurt, they should sit.

#49 Shelterdog


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Posted 16 November 2012 - 02:49 PM

Jesus effing Christ. Why did he come back if he wasn't fully healthy the first time?


I'm guessing because it was the Jets. BB talks an awful lot about how they just focus on one game at a time, they don't look ahead, blah blah blah but I think he's very strategic about when he plays guys coming back from injuries. London game against the Rams? Don't push any of your hurt guys, give everyone the extra week. Tough divisional game? All hands on deck.

#50 RedOctober3829


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Posted 16 November 2012 - 02:51 PM

I'm guessing because it was the Jets. BB talks an awful lot about how they just focus on one game at a time, they don't look ahead, blah blah blah but I think he's very strategic about when he plays guys coming back from injuries. London game against the Rams? Don't push any of your hurt guys, give everyone the extra week. Tough divisional game? All hands on deck.


I don't think he brings back an injured player just based on the team he's playing. Hernandez had probably felt good enough to play in his mind and the trainers let him play then he tweaked something in the game because he wasn't fully ready yet. We'll never know, but I just wish they'd keep him out until he was ready to go. I mean he could just as easily tweaked it if he rested it 2 more weeks, but again we'll never know.

At this point, just get him ready for Houston/SF.