525 replies to this topic

[MentalDisabldLst]

So here's a question slightly related to the playoff picture (though not just AFC-specific): Which game is most likely to be flexed to Sunday Night in Week 17, as a de-facto "play-in game" for the playoffs? The flexing rules are different for week 17, as most people here know, such that the flexing decision is made after the games in week 16 are done, so they can pick a game to close out the regular season which is a make-or-break playoff matchup for at least one and usually both teams, regardless of earlier action that day.

Here's my assessment:

Likely Duds
NYJ @ BUF
MIA @ NE
CAR @ NO
CLE @ PIT
JAK @ TEN
OAK @ SD
KC @ DEN
AZ @ SF

Possible playoff implications
TB @ ATL - The Bucs are 6-7, have the 6th-best Pt Diff in the NFC, and still have a (long)shot at a WC.
HOU @ IND - Could affect seeding, but probably not
PHI @ NYG - An Iggles win might cost the Giants the division (if Griffin keeps the Redskins winning)
CHI @ DET - Chicago is somehow 8-5 right now and controls its destiny for the WC. Next week's GB @ CHI may determine whether this game will be worth watching.
STL @ SEA - The Rams at 6-6-1 are still a longshot for the playoffs, but a major Seattle stumble could potentially make this a play-in game. It will probably affect Seattle's seeding at the very least.

Likely hot matchups
GB @ MIN - If GB loses a few more, this could possibly be for the division title. At the very least, this may be a win-and-we're-in for the Vikings
BAL @ CIN - If Baltimore loses vs both DEN and NYG, and CIN wins its next two, this game will be for the AFC North. CIN would lose a tiebreaker with both ending at 10-6, as they would enter the game 2-3 in-division (even so, CIN may be playing for a WC slot and BAL for its bye or seeding)
DAL @ WAS - This is my bet for the SNF game, due to the country's lovefest with Griffin. Dallas (7-6, same as the Redskins) would have to win at home vs PIT and NO in order to possibly still have a shot at a WC.

[tims4wins]

So much could happen in 3 weeks. A bunch of these matchups could be for division titles. If there are multiple games that have both teams playing for a playoff berth, then it comes down to popularity. Of the 3 games you list, I'd rank them as 1) DAL/WAS, 2) GB/MIN, and 3) BAL/CIN.

[jsinger121]

1. Houston 11-2 (9-1 AFC) - Tie Breaker over Baltimore and Denver. Lose Tiebreaker to New England

Remaining Schedule: Indianapolis, Minnesota, Indianapolis

2. New England 10-3 (9-1 AFC) - Tie Breaker over Denver, Indianapolis and Houston. Lose Tie Breaker to Baltimore (Win 3 way tiebreaker over Baltimore and Denver via better conference record) AFC East Champions

Remaining Schedule: San Francisco, @Jacksonville, Miami

3. Denver 10-3 (7-2 AFC) - Tie Breaker over Pittsburgh, San Diego. Lose Tie Breaker to Houston and New England AFC West Champions

Remaining Schedule: @Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City

4. Baltimore 9-4 (8-2 AFC) - Tie Breaker over New England, Lose Tie Breaker to Houston

Remaining Schedule: Denver, NY Giants, @Cincinnati

5. Indianapolis 9-4 (6-3 AFC) - Lose Tie Breaker to New England and NY Jets

Remaining Schedule: @Houston, @Kansas City, Houston

6. Pittsburgh 7-6 (4-6 AFC) - Tie Breaker over Cincinnati. Lose Tie Breaker to Denver and Tennessee

Remaining Schedule: @Dallas, Cincinnati, Cleveland

7. Cincinnati 7-6 (5-5 AFC) Lose Tie Breaker to Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Denver

Remaining Schedule: @Philadelphia, @Pittsburgh, Baltimore

8. NY Jets 6-7 (4-5 AFC) Tie Breaker over Indianapolis. Lose Tie Breaker to Pittsburgh and Houston

Remaining Schedule: @Tennessee, San Diego, @Buffalo

[abty]

Houstin will lose at least 2 more. Beat the 49'ers and you are the #1 seed as I don't see the Broncos getting more wins than you.

Edited by abty, 11 December 2012 - 09:35 AM.

[Stitch01]

Id be pretty surprised if the Texans lose two more. The Colts arent particularly good.

[bsj]

My best guess is Houston loses one more. Pats won't lose either of the last 2. SF key.

[Shelterdog]

Id be pretty surprised if the Texans lose two more. The Colts arent particularly good.

The Texans shouldn't lose two more but I bet the Colts (divisional opponents, fighting for a playoff spot, actually in control of whether they win the divisision, possibly with Pagano on the sideline) pull off one of them.

[NHSoxFever]

I agree with this: http://bleacherrepor...ng-into-week-15

Very early to call, but in the second round, you'd probably end up with #5 Baltimore at #2 New England and #6 Denver at #1 Houston.

Even though they're not playing well right now, Baltimore scares me. I would much rather play Indy in the second round, as I'm sure everyone would.

[Hendu for Kutch]

The unfortunate scenario is that the Texans are hosting Indy this week and visiting them in Week 17. I like Indy's chances better at home obviously, but there's a pretty good chance that Indy will have nothing to play for Week 17. If they lose @HOU then win @KC, they're locked into the #5 seed from what I can tell, barring Cincy running the table. In that case, they'd have each be 10-6 with 7-5 conference records and 3-3 division records, so you'd probably have to go down to common opponents at that point.

Long story short, Indy needs to win this upcoming weekend or I think they get swept by Houston.

[drleather2001]

I agree with this: http://bleacherrepor...ng-into-week-15

Very early to call, but in the second round, you'd probably end up with #5 Baltimore at #2 New England and #6 Denver at #1 Houston.

Even though they're not playing well right now, Baltimore scares me. I would much rather play Indy in the second round, as I'm sure everyone would.

How on earth does Denver fall to #6?

Think again.

[rodderick]

I agree with this: http://bleacherrepor...ng-into-week-15

Very early to call, but in the second round, you'd probably end up with #5 Baltimore at #2 New England and #6 Denver at #1 Houston.

Even though they're not playing well right now, Baltimore scares me. I would much rather play Indy in the second round, as I'm sure everyone would.

Actually, in that scenario, Denver would be the number 3 seed, and Baltimore number 4. If both win and the Patriots get the second seed, the Broncos would come to Foxborough.

[Ralphwiggum]

The unfortunate scenario is that the Texans are hosting Indy this week and visiting them in Week 17. I like Indy's chances better at home obviously, but there's a pretty good chance that Indy will have nothing to play for Week 17. If they lose @HOU then win @KC, they're locked into the #5 seed from what I can tell, barring Cincy running the table. In that case, they'd have each be 10-6 with 7-5 conference records and 3-3 division records, so you'd probably have to go down to common opponents at that point.

Long story short, Indy needs to win this upcoming weekend or I think they get swept by Houston.

What if the Jets run the table? They have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indy.

[tims4wins]

All I know is that Indy @ Houston next week just became very interesting. Curious to see if Houston can bounce back, and curious to see if Indy can bring their A game now that they have a chance to actually steal that division.

[abty]

I just don't think the Texans are that good and they are also banged up. Should they win 2 more? Sure. Will they, maybe. But if they lost 2 it wouldn't shock me. Just as the last 2 Ravens loses don't surprise me. Like the Falcons, I think those teams had great starts with no pressure but, once you put the pressure on them, I expect them to regress a bit. That's why Peyton and Brady are special, they seem to handle it during this time of the year and I think it will reflect in those 2 teams' fortunes during the next 3 weeks.

[Hendu for Kutch]

What if the Jets run the table? They have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indy.

In my assumption, Indy beats KC, meaning NYJ can't catch them.

[Ed Hillel]

The Texans shouldn't lose two more but I bet the Colts (divisional opponents, fighting for a playoff spot, actually in control of whether they win the divisision, possibly with Pagano on the sideline) pull off one of them.

My fear is that Indy loses this week, then wins next week, and has nothing to play for week 17.

Edited by Ed Hillel, 11 December 2012 - 10:41 AM.

[dcmissle]

My fear is that Indy loses this week, then wins next week, and has nothing to play for week 17.

I think you sell them short. The mentality of the team since Pagano arrived seems exactly the opposite. They are having a special season that they will want to end well. I imagine they also want to signal serious intentions going into next season even if they somehow have fallen from the playoff race.

[tims4wins]

I think you sell them short. The mentality of the team since Pagano arrived seems exactly the opposite. They are having a special season that they will want to end well. I imagine they also want to signal serious intentions going into next season even if they somehow have fallen from the playoff race.

I think you're misunderstanding. If Indy loses this week, then beats KC, they will likely clinch a playoff spot, but they will have nothing to play for in Week 17 as they will likely be locked into the 5th seed. So they may just rest their starters.

[BoredViewer]

A win at KC would clinch a playoff spot for Indy. There is no way 2 other teams could end up with 10 wins.

Edited by BoredViewer, 11 December 2012 - 11:09 AM.

[DrewDawg]

I agree with this: http://bleacherrepor...ng-into-week-15

Very early to call, but in the second round, you'd probably end up with #5 Baltimore at #2 New England and #6 Denver at #1 Houston.

Um...just to point out the obvious, there's no way Denver is the #6 seed.

[tims4wins]

He just has the seeds reversed; the matchups are all correct. Denver is #3, Baltimore #4 in that scenario.

[DrewDawg]

He just has the seeds reversed; the matchups are all correct. Denver is #3, Baltimore #4 in that scenario.

Matchups are not correct. #4 Baltimore would play at #1 Houston and #3 Denver would come to #2 New England.

[The Four Peters]

For what it's worth, the article had the #6 Steelers beating Denver. I think he got the teams wrong, not the seeds.

[tims4wins]

Matchups are not correct. #4 Baltimore would play at #1 Houston and #3 Denver would come to #2 New England.

Yeah I thought I had edited that, must have not hit submit

[pappymojo]

I think you're misunderstanding. If Indy loses this week, then beats KC, they will likely clinch a playoff spot, but they will have nothing to play for in Week 17 as they will likely be locked into the 5th seed. So they may just rest their starters.

I don't know if a team with a rookie quaterback going into the playoffs can not play hard against a division rival that it just may play in the playoffs. They will surely want to go into the playoffs with confidence in their ability to beat a quality opponent.

[dcmissle]

I don't know if a team with a rookie quaterback going into the playoffs can not play hard against a division rival that it just may play in the playoffs. They will surely want to go into the playoffs with confidence in their ability to beat a quality opponent.

Completely agree. It's a young team still on training wheels, and laying off is contra the mind set the new regime is trying to instill.

[tims4wins]

I don't know if a team with a rookie quaterback going into the playoffs can not play hard against a division rival that it just may play in the playoffs. They will surely want to go into the playoffs with confidence in their ability to beat a quality opponent.

I don't know either. It would certainly make for an interesting coaching decision if they are locked into the 5 seed heading into that week. We've seen some teams rest starters, we've seen others not, and we've seen mixed results in the playoffs - I don't think that there is necessarily a "right" answer. But if Houston is playing for the 1 seed and Indy has nothing to play for, it might be an injury risk situation.

[Stitch01]

I strongly suspect they'd give regulars some rest. Even if starters play it will be an ultra, ultra vanilla game plan given Houston is the likely Round 2 matchup if they're the one seed.

[ragnarok725]

FO hasn't posted DVOA or full playoff odds reports yet today, but here's a crazy number on their homepage right now...

SB Win Odds:

• NE - 24%
• DEN - 14.6%
• SF - 13.3%
• SEA - 11.9%
• HOU - 11.4%

The Pats are almost 10% better than anyone else to win it all right now. FO seems to be taking a real liking to this Pats team.

[dcmissle]

FO hasn't posted DVOA or full playoff odds reports yet today, but here's a crazy number on their homepage right now...

SB Win Odds:

• NE - 24%
• DEN - 14.6%
• SF - 13.3%
• SEA - 11.9%
• HOU - 11.4%

The Pats are almost 10% better than anyone else to win it all right now. FO seems to be taking a real liking to this Pats team.

I like the list. The bolded portion is an annual thing.

FO's apparent weakness is accounting for the NYG. Was last year too.

[bowiac]

Nothing to do with anything, but the Texans decide to go on a bit of a slide here and lose both games to the Colts, there's a pretty real chance of 5 teams finishing 12-4. It's not gonna happen obviously, but it's a funny scenario. Patriots would get a bye in that scenario, although not necessarily the 1 seed.

[j44thor]

What if the Jets run the table? They have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indy.

Honest question, why does anyone think the NYJ can run the table? They have squeaked out wins over two of the worst teams in the NFL the last two weeks. I'm not sure they will be favored in another game this year. They go @TN with their 29th ranked run D against CJ2K at home vs. SD who has a lot more talent than Gang Greene and @ BUF to end the year.

I think they have a better chance of going 0-3 than 3-0 to finish the season.

[BigSoxFan]

Honest question, why does anyone think the NYJ can run the table? They have squeaked out wins over two of the worst teams in the NFL the last two weeks. I'm not sure they will be favored in another game this year. They go @TN with their 29th ranked run D against CJ2K at home vs. SD who has a lot more talent than Gang Greene and @ BUF to end the year.

I think they have a better chance of going 0-3 than 3-0 to finish the season.

SD, Buff, and the Titans are almost as dysfunctional as the Jets. I don't expect the Jets to run the table but I wouldn't be shocked by it.

[fieldslikebuckner]

Has the NFL flexed one of the 1 p.m. games to 4:25 this weekend? The late games this weekend are utterly horrible. And since it looks like a CBS doubleheader weekend, the Colts-Texans or Broncos-Ravens would seem to be no-brainers.

All right, the Cowboys-Steelers probably isn't horrible but those other two games are at least as attractive.

Edited by fieldslikebuckner, 11 December 2012 - 06:39 PM.

[Dan Murfman]

Has the NFL flexed one of the 1 p.m. games to 4:25 this weekend? The late games this weekend are utterly horrible. And since it looks like a CBS doubleheader weekend, the Colts-Texans or Broncos-Ravens would seem to be no-brainers.

All right, the Cowboys-Steelers probably isn't horrible but those other two games are at least as attractive.

Not to CBS.

[axx]

This week Indy can clinch a playoff spot if they can beat Houston and Green Bay a playoff spot (& the North Title) if they can beat Chicago.

Seems like the Pats seed will be decided this week. And to think the Pats could easily be 13-0 right now.

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

This week Indy can clinch a playoff spot if they can beat Houston and Green Bay a playoff spot (& the North Title) if they can beat Chicago.

Seems like the Pats seed will be decided this week. And to think the Pats could easily be 13-0 right now.

Not entirely. Houston may lose 1 to Indy. Pats could sneak into the #1 slot before all is said and done.

[axx]

Not entirely. Houston may lose 1 to Indy. Pats could sneak into the #1 slot before all is said and done.

That's true, I was accounting for that. For #1, they are going to have to run the table. I almost want to say that beating SF means a bye; losing means no bye.

[epraz]

That's true, I was accounting for that. For #1, they are going to have to run the table. I almost want to say that beating SF means a bye; losing means no bye.

Losing means rooting for the Ravens this week and the Giants next week.

[Rasputin]

Losing means rooting for the Ravens this week and the Giants next week.

That's almost as bad as having Swisher play for the Sox.

[dcmissle]

Losing means rooting for the Ravens this week and the Giants next week.

Back from the debacle in Bal; the first part of this did not work out for either of us.

As a practical matter now, Pats have to go 3 and 0 to close to secure even a first-round bye, much less the first seed. It is inconceivable that Broncos will lose either of their remaining 2, and very unlikely that Texans will lose both of their remaining 2, which is what it will take to get a weekend off if the Pats slip just once.

[jsinger121]

Back from the debacle in Bal; the first part of this did not work out for either of us.

As a practical matter now, Pats have to go 3 and 0 to close to secure even a first-round bye, much less the first seed. It is inconceivable that Broncos will lose either of their remaining 2, and very unlikely that Texans will lose both of their remaining 2, which is what it will take to get a weekend off if the Pats slip just once.

Win tonight is all that matters. The last 2 games are pretty much sure wins.

[Ferm Sheller]

Win tonight is all that matters. The last 2 games are pretty much sure wins.

They beat Miami by the skin of their teeth in the end of the season game against them last year in Foxboro. That game was important for playoff seeding.

Edited by Ferm Sheller, 16 December 2012 - 06:13 PM.

[jsinger121]

They beat Miami by the skin of their teeth in the end of the season game against them last year in Foxboro. That game was important for playoff seeding.

I wouldn't be worried about seeing Miami a second time. Pats will have made adjustments.

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

I wouldn't be worried about seeing Miami a second time. Pats will have made adjustments.

Year after year after year in the NFL we see shitty teams play divisional opponents really tough at seemingly random times. It happens every year, multiple times every season.

Also every year people display disbelief that occasionally shitty teams have really good games against better divisional opponents at random times.

This cycle will probably never end.

[jsinger121]

Year after year after year in the NFL we see shitty teams play divisional opponents really tough at seemingly random times. It happens every year, multiple times every season.

Also every year people display disbelief that occasionally shitty teams have really good games against better divisional opponents at random times.

This cycle will probably never end.

Miami played their tough game against New England already. I don't see a repeat of that performance.

[epraz]

It is inconceivable that Broncos will lose either of their remaining 2

I can conceive this.

[BernieRicoBoomer]

Year after year after year in the NFL we see shitty teams play divisional opponents really tough at seemingly random times. It happens every year, multiple times every season.

Also every year people display disbelief that occasionally shitty teams have really good games against better divisional opponents at random times.

This cycle will probably never end.

So, shouldn't this be true for Houston and Denver as well?

[j44thor]

Year after year after year in the NFL we see shitty teams play divisional opponents really tough at seemingly random times. It happens every year, multiple times every season.

Also every year people display disbelief that occasionally shitty teams have really good games against better divisional opponents at random times.

This cycle will probably never end.

NE doesn't lose at home in Dec period. The odds of that changing vs. a very bad MIA team with a 1st rd bye on the line are really, really fucking small. Win tonight locks up a top 2 seed.

[dcmissle]

Year after year after year in the NFL we see shitty teams play divisional opponents really tough at seemingly random times. It happens every year, multiple times every season.

Also every year people display disbelief that occasionally shitty teams have really good games against better divisional opponents at random times.

This cycle will probably never end.

This is true. Still, the Denver part of this seems rock solid.

That the Broncos, led by Manning, will beat the Browns next week and the Chiefs the week after, at home and with a bye on the line, are as sure things as you can get in today NFL.