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AFC Playoff Picture
#1
Posted 12 November 2012 - 09:45 AM
1. Houston 8-1 (7-0 AFC) - Tie Breaker over Baltimore and Denver
Remaining Schedule: Jacksonville, @Detroit (Thanksgiving), @Tennessee, @New England, Indianapolis, Minnesota, Indianapolis
2. Baltimore 7-2 (6-1 AFC) - Tie Breaker over New England, Lose Tie Breaker to Houston
Remaining Schedule: @Pittsburgh, @San Diego, Pittsburgh, @Washington, Denver, NY Giants, @Cincinnati
3. New England 6-3 (5-1 AFC) - Tie Breaker over Denver, Lose Tie Breaker to Baltimore
Remaining Schedule: Indianapolis, @NY Jets (Thanksgiving), @Miami, Houston, San Francisco, @Jacksonville, Miami
4. Denver 6-3 (4-2 AFC) - Tie Breaker over Pittsburgh, Lose Tie Breaker to Houston and New England
Remaining Schedule: San Diego, @Kansas City, Tampa Bay, @Oakland, @Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City
5. Indianapolis 6-3 (4-2 AFC) - Tie Breaker over Miami
Remaining Schedule: @New England, Buffalo, @Detroit, Tennessee, @Houston, @Kansas City, Houston
6. Pittsburgh 5-3 (2-3 AFC) - Lose Tie Breaker to Denver and Tennessee
Remaining Schedule: Kansas City, Baltimore, @Cleveland, @Baltimore, San Diego, @Dallas, Cincinnati, Cleveland
7. San Diego 4-5 (4-2 AFC) Tie Breaker over Tennessee, Lose Tie Breaker to Denver
Remaining Schedule: @Denver, Baltimore, Cincinnati, @Pittsburgh, Carolina, @NY Jets, Oakland
8. Miami 4-5 (3-4 AFC) Tie Breaker over Cincinnati. Lose Tie Breaker to Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee
Remaining Schedule: @Buffalo, Seattle, New England, @ San Francisco, Jacksonville, Buffalo, @New England
9. Cincinnati 4-5 (2-5 AFC) Lose Tie Breaker to Miami, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Denver
Remaining Schedule: @Kansas City, Oakland, @San Diego, Dallas, @Philadelphia, @Pittsburgh, Baltimore
10. Tennessee 4-6 (3-4 AFC) Tie Breaker over Pittsburgh and Miami, Lose Tie Breaker to Houston, Indianapolis, San Diego and New England
Remaining Schedule: Bye, @Jacksonville, Houston, @Indianapolis, NY Jets, @Green Bay, Jacksonville
11-16 are pretty much toast
#2
Posted 12 November 2012 - 09:56 AM
Everything from 2-6 is a giant cluster. NE tiebreaker over DEN could come in very handy.
#3
Posted 12 November 2012 - 09:58 AM
The Pats have a great shot at the #2 seed, and the game vs Houston in December will be huge.
#4
Posted 12 November 2012 - 10:11 AM
#5
Posted 12 November 2012 - 10:30 AM
A #4 seed would also likely mean hosting Pitt or Balt in the WC round. Ugh.
#6
Posted 12 November 2012 - 10:30 AM
Right now i see:
1-Houston
2-Denver
3-Pats
4-Steelers
5-Balt
6-indy
This Sunday may be a preview of the 1st round
#7
Posted 12 November 2012 - 10:31 AM
#8
Posted 12 November 2012 - 10:46 AM
Now, it's going to be a tough road. I'm still hoping for a 2 seed, but I have a feeling that the Pats may be playing the first weekend this year.
I love the position Indy is in. I think they can easily get to 10 wins, which would be incredible. Wait until Luck has a couple years under his belt...
#9
Posted 12 November 2012 - 10:47 AM
Agree-Denver can run the table, Steelers may catch the Ravens
Right now i see:
1-Houston
2-Denver
3-Pats
4-Steelers
5-Balt
6-indy
This Sunday may be a preview of the 1st round
I think this looks the most likely. While I like the Pats chances against Denver in a playoff game, I think the Broncos winning out is a very real possibility and I'm far less optimistic about New England's chances of doing so. Impressive win yesterday aside I still think Baltimore is worse than Pittsburgh and I expect the Steelers to win both games. With Miami not ready for prime time the Colts seem a clear favorite for the 6 seed to me. San Diego and Cincinnati are interesting long shots, but the head start that Luck and co. have ultimately probably makes it a moot point.
Last night's game was a bummer. This is all much more interesting (and favorable from our perspective) with a 7-2 Houston team at the top.
#10
Posted 12 November 2012 - 02:36 PM
#11
Posted 12 November 2012 - 03:43 PM
I still think the Pats are well-situated. They don't cross any timezones for the rest of the season and their toughest matchups (Houston and San Fran) will have to travel a good distance to play in Foxboro in mid-December. If Hernandez comes back strong, the two-tight end sets could make the Pats' ground game difficult to stop without being vulnerable to the play-action. Bottom line - the conference is wide open and division winners get their first playoff game at home; from there, it's matter of executing well and maybe catching a few breaks. I'm really looking forward to the Houston game. Their remaining schedule is no cakewalk, and it should be a great game up in Foxboro (hopefully with snow).
#12
Posted 12 November 2012 - 03:52 PM
It looks like getting a bye will depend on how things go for the Ravens (who curb-stomped Oakland yesterday) - which sucks more than a bit considering they got their tiebreaker over the Pats in a one point win in game one of a nationally-broadcast doubleheader of perfect storm of replacement ref suckitude so bad that the adult owners in the room - Kraft allegedly among them - finally got the group to make some concessions to the real refs (they didn't necessarily hurt themselves in the long run, but that's another discussion altogether, and one better-led by lawyers who know a lot more than collective bargaining agreements and related matters in labor law than I). Baltimore has it's two annual wars with the Steelers, plus a west coast trip to San Diego. They also get the Giants and Broncos, albeit at home, and a trip to Cincy on December 30 that might not be a gimme.
I still think the Pats are well-situated. They don't cross any timezones for the rest of the season and their toughest matchups (Houston and San Fran) will have to travel a good distance to play in Foxboro in mid-December. If Hernandez comes back strong, the two-tight end sets could make the Pats' ground game difficult to stop without being vulnerable to the play-action. Bottom line - the conference is wide open and division winners get their first playoff game at home; from there, it's matter of executing well and maybe catching a few breaks. I'm really looking forward to the Houston game. Their remaining schedule is no cakewalk, and it should be a great game up in Foxboro (hopefully with snow).
Agreed but watch out for Denver. We can't have too many screwups along the way with the shit of a schedule that Denver has the rest of the way. Pats need to be on top of their game the rest of the way for a bye to happen.
#13
Posted 12 November 2012 - 04:28 PM
Agreed but watch out for Denver. We can't have too many screwups along the way with the shit
of a schedule that Denver has the rest of the way. Pats need to be on top of their game the rest of the way for a bye to happen.
I second this; the bye is nice but so is getting the three seed over Denver. In 2006 that four seed to Manning's three seed turned out to be killer.
#14
Posted 12 November 2012 - 05:04 PM
#15
Posted 12 November 2012 - 06:23 PM
Let's assume that if they finish ahead of any of HOU, BAL, NE, DEN, or PGH they are in, and ignore teams presently with 3 wins or less. That leaves:
MIA (4-5; @BUF, SEA, NE, @SF, JAX, BUF, @NE)... I say a total of 8 wins max, probably less.
SD (4-5; @DEN, BAL, CIN, @PGH, CAR, @NYJ, OAK)... always hard to predict SD, but I say anywhere from 6-8 wins.
CIN (4-5; @KC, OAK, @SD, DAL, @PHI, @PGH, BAL)... what, 7 or 8 wins, max?
TEN (4-6; @JAX, HOU, @IND, NYJ, @GB, JAX)... if they drop both HOU and @GB, they max out at 8 wins.
and IND (6-3; @NE, BUF, @DET, TEN, @HOU, @KC, HOU)... some tough games there, but beating two of BUF, @DET, TEN, @KC gets them to 8 wins, which might be enough. Nine should definitely do it, I think. IND has tiebreaker over MIA, and presently over TEN but they play again.
#16
Posted 12 November 2012 - 06:49 PM
How many games will IND win this year? How many do they need to win to make the playoffs?
9-7 probably gets it done.
I could see Miami or Cincy finishing 5-2, but the Colts hold H2H tiebreak over the Dolphins and are likely to finish with a better conference record than the Bengals.
#17
Posted 12 November 2012 - 06:50 PM
After looking, before this week's drubbing of Miami, they had 3 wins - by 3 (OT over DET), 3 (PIT), and 1 (BUF) and 6 losses - one in OT vs Indy, and the others by 21, 28, 24, 23, and 31 points. So they're 3-1 in close games, and have 5 20+ point losses already.
#18
Posted 13 November 2012 - 12:01 AM
#19
Posted 13 November 2012 - 10:49 AM
Remaining Schedule: Jacksonville, @Detroit (Thanksgiving), @Tennessee, @New England, Indianapolis, Minnesota, Indianapolis
2. Baltimore 7-2 (6-1 AFC) - Tie Breaker over New England, Lose Tie Breaker to Houston
Remaining Schedule: @Pittsburgh, @San Diego, Pittsburgh, @Washington, Denver, NY Giants, @Cincinnati
3. New England 6-3 (5-1 AFC) - Tie Breaker over Denver, Lose Tie Breaker to Baltimore
Remaining Schedule: Indianapolis, @NY Jets (Thanksgiving), @Miami, Houston, San Francisco, @Jacksonville, Miami
4. Denver 6-3 (4-2 AFC) - Tie Breaker over Pittsburgh, Lose Tie Breaker to Houston and New England
Remaining Schedule: San Diego, @Kansas City, Tampa Bay, @Oakland, @Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City
5. Indianapolis 6-3 (4-2 AFC) - Tie Breaker over Miami
Remaining Schedule: @New England, Buffalo, @Detroit, Tennessee, @Houston, @Kansas City, Houston
6. Pittsburgh 6-3 (3-3 AFC) - Lose Tie Breaker to Denver and Tennessee
Remaining Schedule: Baltimore, @Cleveland, @Baltimore, San Diego, @Dallas, Cincinnati, Cleveland
7. San Diego 4-5 (4-2 AFC) Tie Breaker over Tennessee, Lose Tie Breaker to Denver
Remaining Schedule: @Denver, Baltimore, Cincinnati, @Pittsburgh, Carolina, @NY Jets, Oakland
8. Miami 4-5 (3-4 AFC) Tie Breaker over Cincinnati. Lose Tie Breaker to Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee
Remaining Schedule: @Buffalo, Seattle, New England, @ San Francisco, Jacksonville, Buffalo, @New England
9. Cincinnati 4-5 (2-5 AFC) Lose Tie Breaker to Miami, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Denver
Remaining Schedule: @Kansas City, Oakland, @San Diego, Dallas, @Philadelphia, @Pittsburgh, Baltimore
10. Tennessee 4-6 (3-4 AFC) Tie Breaker over Pittsburgh and Miami, Lose Tie Breaker to Houston, Indianapolis, San Diego and New England
Remaining Schedule: Bye, @Jacksonville, Houston, @Indianapolis, NY Jets, @Green Bay, Jacksonville
11-16 are pretty much toast
Updated for the Pittsburgh win last night
#20
Posted 13 November 2012 - 01:49 PM
#21
Posted 14 November 2012 - 01:15 PM
Needless to say we won't see him for a while if at all this season.
https://twitter.com/...774483849003008
#22
Posted 14 November 2012 - 01:17 PM
#23
Posted 14 November 2012 - 05:40 PM
Ed Bouchette didn't credit Rick Reilly for his initial report.
Yah, but Nate Silver called it back in September.
#24
Posted 14 November 2012 - 08:20 PM
Big Ben has more to worry about than his shoulder. Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that he has a dislocated rib that is pushing against his aorta. It is a life-threatening injury. The doctor told Ben that it's such a rare injury that he hasn't seen it since 1998.
Needless to say we won't see him for a while if at all this season.
https://twitter.com/...774483849003008
Does Big Ben have some kind of Final Destination thing going? Between the motorcycle accident, the potential indictment, and this...
#25
Posted 15 November 2012 - 08:11 AM
Does Big Ben have some kind of Final Destination thing going? Between the motorcycle accident, the potential indictment, and this...
I have no idea how you treat a dislocated rib, but "life threatening" is not a good tag to hang on any sports related injury, he might be out the rest of the year; again, it all depends on how you treat an injury like that, doesn't sound like something you want to be a hero over and rush back from.
This guy is a walking disaster, he should wear a helmet when he goes to the bathroom.
#26
Posted 15 November 2012 - 12:04 PM
RT@Ravens: CB Jimmy Smith has had groin surgery. Successful surgery in Philadelphia. He's expected to be back before the end of the season.
https://twitter.com/...123164888510464
Ian Rapaport actually says that he had sports hernia surgery and not groin surgery.
https://twitter.com/...155849929363456
Edited by RedOctober3829, 15 November 2012 - 02:38 PM.
#27
Posted 15 November 2012 - 12:45 PM
And yea, he has an SC joint separation (clavicle meets sterum), that could cause major injury if he sustained another large blunt force trauma to the chest aka being tackled by another very large gentleman. How severe the separation / sprain is and consequently how long he is out for, they aren't saying.
But given that the Steelers play the Ravens in the next 2/3 weeks, I find it hard the believe the Ravens losing to Leftwich. This, it seems will basically cement Hou-Bal as 1-2 and leave us vs Den for 3-4. If noodle arm holds up in the snow, I see that Pats coming in 4th by virtue of a harder home stretch.
#28
Posted 16 November 2012 - 09:38 AM
#29
Posted 16 November 2012 - 09:45 AM
I think any shot Miami had just went out the door.
Yup. The next 3 games for them are Seattle, New England, San Francisco. They could be 4-9 after that stretch.
#30
Posted 16 November 2012 - 10:28 AM
Another wild card is that both teams treat this like their Super Bowl and kick the shit out of each other, so it gets tougher to predict. For example, Flacco seems to never get hurt but it just takes one bad hit for us to see Tyrod Taylor, and Pittsburgh's the team that would do it if they get the opportunity.
#31
Posted 19 November 2012 - 09:37 AM
Remaining Schedule: @Detroit (Thanksgiving), @Tennessee, @New England, Indianapolis, Minnesota, Indianapolis
2. Baltimore 8-2 (7-1 AFC) - Tie Breaker over New England, Pittsburgh. Lose Tie Breaker to Houston
Remaining Schedule: @San Diego, Pittsburgh, @Washington, Denver, NY Giants, @Cincinnati
3. New England 7-3 (6-1 AFC) - Tie Breaker over Denver, Indianapolis. Lose Tie Breaker to Baltimore
Remaining Schedule: @NY Jets (Thanksgiving), @Miami, Houston, San Francisco, @Jacksonville, Miami
4. Denver 7-3 (5-2 AFC) - Tie Breaker over Pittsburgh, San Diego. Lose Tie Breaker to Houston and New England
Remaining Schedule: @Kansas City, Tampa Bay, @Oakland, @Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City
5. Indianapolis 6-4 (4-3 AFC) - Tie Breaker over Miami
Remaining Schedule: Buffalo, @Detroit, Tennessee, @Houston, @Kansas City, Houston
6. Pittsburgh 6-4 (3-4 AFC) - Lose Tie Breaker to Baltimore, Denver and Tennessee
Remaining Schedule: @Cleveland, @Baltimore, San Diego, @Dallas, Cincinnati, Cleveland
7. Cincinnati 5-5 (3-5 AFC) Lose Tie Breaker to Miami, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Denver
Remaining Schedule: Oakland, @San Diego, Dallas, @Philadelphia, @Pittsburgh, Baltimore
8. San Diego 4-6 (4-3 AFC) Tie Breaker over Tennessee, Lose Tie Breaker to Denver
Remaining Schedule: Baltimore, Cincinnati, @Pittsburgh, Carolina, @NY Jets, Oakland
9. Tennessee 4-6 (3-4 AFC) Tie Breaker over Pittsburgh and Miami, Lose Tie Breaker to Houston, Indianapolis, San Diego and New England
Remaining Schedule: @Jacksonville, Houston, @Indianapolis, NY Jets, @Green Bay, Jacksonville
10. NY Jets 4-6 (3-4 AFC) Tie Breaker over Buffalo, Miami, Indianapolis. Lose Tie Breaker to Pittsburgh and Houston
Remaining Schedule: New England (Thanksgiving), Arizona, @Jacksonville, @Tennessee, San Diego, @Buffalo
11. Buffalo 4-6 (3-5 AFC) Tie Breaker over Miami. Lose Tie Breaker to Houston, NY Jets, New England and Tennessee
Remaining schedule: @Indianapolis, Jacksonville, St. Louis, Seattle, @Miami, NY Jets
12. Miami 4-6 (3-5 AFC) Tie Breaker over Cincinnati. Lose Tie Breaker to Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee and Buffalo
Remaining Schedule: Seattle, New England, @ San Francisco, Jacksonville, Buffalo, @New England
#32
Posted 19 November 2012 - 09:57 AM
#33
Posted 19 November 2012 - 02:47 PM
Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter
New England not only team to take hit:@mortreport and I reporting Broncos RB Willis McGahee has a torn MCL, will miss six to eight weeks.
#34
Posted 19 November 2012 - 02:53 PM
Jay Glazer also says that McGahee has a fracture in that leg.
#35
Posted 19 November 2012 - 02:54 PM
Edited by abty, 19 November 2012 - 02:55 PM.
#36
Posted 19 November 2012 - 02:57 PM
Beat houston, get the tie breaker over all other top 5 teams other than Baltimore and root hard for the Colts.
You also have to root for Houston to lose 1 more game if the Pats beat them. That's why Jacksonville's choke job yesterday was so disappointing.
#37
Posted 19 November 2012 - 03:12 PM
You also have to root for Houston to lose 1 more game if the Pats beat them. That's why Jacksonville's choke job yesterday was so disappointing.
No doubt, but it must be exciting to know that it is possible. Go Colts, go for the sweep.
#38
Posted 19 November 2012 - 03:16 PM
Beat houston, get the tie breaker over all other top 5 teams other than Baltimore and root hard for the Colts.
We should be more worried about the Broncos than the Ravens. Denver has a cake schedule going forward, it wouldn't be surprising to see them run the table. I think they have one of the byes locked up at this point.
Edited by rodderick, 19 November 2012 - 03:16 PM.
#39
Posted 19 November 2012 - 03:20 PM
We should be more worried about the Broncos than the Ravens. Denver has a cake schedule going forward, it wouldn't be surprising to see them run the table. I think they have one of the byes locked up at this point.
ESPN is reporting Willis McGahee has a torn MCL -- will miss 6-8 weeks.
#40
Posted 19 November 2012 - 03:21 PM
One of the byes locked up is an exaggeration. They've already lost to Houston and New England and they still play at Baltimore. If they lose to the Ravens they won't have a tiebreaker with any of the other division winners.We should be more worried about the Broncos than the Ravens. Denver has a cake schedule going forward, it wouldn't be surprising to see them run the table. I think they have one of the byes locked up at this point.
EDIT: if the Pats can win out (and end up 13-3) and the Broncos do too, and the Ravens win all their games except for the Denver game, the Pats would have tiebreaker by virtue of a 11-1 conference record (with Baltimore and Denver both 10-2).
Edited by Super Nomario, 19 November 2012 - 03:29 PM.
#41
Posted 19 November 2012 - 03:47 PM
One of the byes locked up is an exaggeration. They've already lost to Houston and New England and they still play at Baltimore. If they lose to the Ravens they won't have a tiebreaker with any of the other division winners.
EDIT: if the Pats can win out (and end up 13-3) and the Broncos do too, and the Ravens win all their games except for the Denver game, the Pats would have tiebreaker by virtue of a 11-1 conference record (with Baltimore and Denver both 10-2).
That's wrong. Head to head is the first tiebreaker and we lose that to Baltimore. Need Baltimore to lose 2 games not 1.
#42
Posted 19 November 2012 - 03:53 PM
That's wrong. Head to head is the first tiebreaker and we lose that to Baltimore. Need Baltimore to lose 2 games not 1.
If it is a 3 way tie at 13-3 (which seems unlikely), head to head would get thrown out the window and it would default to conference record.
Denver would have beaten Baltimore, the Pats would have beaten Denver, and Baltimore would have beaten the the Pats.
#43
Posted 19 November 2012 - 03:58 PM
Ian Rapoport @RapSheet
Just got real for#Ravens S Ed Reed: Suspended without pay for one game for repeated violations of head-hitting/defenseless players rule
#44
Posted 19 November 2012 - 03:58 PM
If it is a 3 way tie at 13-3 (which seems unlikely), head to head would get thrown out the window and it would default to conference record.
Denver would have beaten Baltimore, the Pats would have beaten Denver, and Baltimore would have beaten the the Pats.
I stand corrected.
#45
Posted 19 November 2012 - 04:05 PM
For San Diego?
Edit: Yes
http://profootballta...d-hits-to-head/
Edited by phragle, 19 November 2012 - 04:10 PM.
#46
Posted 21 November 2012 - 11:30 AM
Jay Glazer
@JayGlazer
Broncos are putting Willis McGahee on IR, ending his season. Tough, tough blow
They have to turn to Ronnie Hillman, Lance Ball and Knowshon Moreno now.
Edited by jsinger121, 21 November 2012 - 11:31 AM.
#47
Posted 21 November 2012 - 12:27 PM
Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter
IR for Willis McGahee expected as@JayGlazer reported. But it would be with designation to return so he could play in AFC Championship game.
#48
Posted 21 November 2012 - 01:22 PM
They have to turn to Ronnie Hillman, Lance Ball and Knowshon Moreno now.
Since when has Peyton ever needed a running game? Yawn. It's unfortunate for them, but it's a non-factor.
#49
Posted 21 November 2012 - 02:04 PM
Peyton's played most of his career with top-flight running backs. Faulk was awesome (just one year), Edgerrin James was awesome, Addai was meh.Since when has Peyton ever needed a running game? Yawn. It's unfortunate for them, but it's a non-factor.
#50
Posted 21 November 2012 - 02:06 PM
Since when has Peyton ever needed a running game? Yawn. It's unfortunate for them, but it's a non-factor.
A 'non-factor'? Uh, I'd say you're overstating your case a bit.
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