92 replies to this topic

[Rasputin]

Salty's OPS+ in 2012 was 95. Let's not pretend the guy sucks.

Salty's offense is heavily weighted to slugging and this is a team that has a well documented need to get a bit more OBP centric, especially if Iglesias is going to be the every day shortstop. Replacing Salty with Ross is a little step in that direction even if Ross' OPS+ isn't much higher than Salty's.

[Edelpeddle]

Love this move. I had stated on another forum that fixing the game calling and catcher's defense would be a big part of fixing the starting pitching and actually named Ross as the best option available. He's a very good defensive catcher who's put up respectable offensive numbers in a pitcher friendly park.

[SoxScout]

Man, Ross and Salty have very similar hitting profiles except Salty has more power and Ross has a 4 year streak of ridiculous BABIP... better hope he can keep that up. I didn't realize he was such a K-king too.

[Edelpeddle]

Man, Ross and Salty have very similar hitting profiles except Salty has more power and Ross has a 4 year streak of ridiculous BABIP... better hope he can keep that up. I didn't realize he was such a K-king too.

I would see four years as more of a trend than a lucky streak. David's .347 BABIP the last four seasons isn't any higher than you would expect considering his 23.1% line drive rate.

Edited by Edelpeddle, 10 November 2012 - 03:20 PM.

[SoxScout]

I would see four years as more of a trend than a lucky streak. David's .347 BABIP the last four seasons isn't any higher than you would expect considering his 23.1% line drive rate.

Salty had a 22.8% LD% and a .265 BABIP

Look at Ross' K%, that's a horrifying trend for a 36 year old.

FB% were 47 to 43 so that accounts for some but googling Ross and BABIP a handful of people seem confused about what's happened the last 4 years.

Edited by SoxScout, 10 November 2012 - 03:25 PM.

[Toe Nash]

Seems perfectly reasonable that Lavarnway "struggled" at the plate in his MLB time for a few reasons:
1. possibly influenced by bad luck on a .209 BABIP
2. small sample size
3. was focusing on defense / handling the staff at the MLB level rather than learning how to hit MLB pitching
4. 80% of his PAs came at the end of the 2012 season which was a complete disaster on the coaching level, while the other 20% came in the midst of one of the worst collapses of all time

Going forward I'd put a lot more weight on his MiLB numbers which suggest he can be a competent offensive MLB catcher at least. Especially given an offseason to work with the pitchers, coaches and a hitting coach who don't have a manager trying to undermine them.

When you consider the alternative is Salty, who isn't a bad player but hasn't exactly improved by leaps and bounds offensively or defensively even though he's had a ton of time, and is getting expensive, AND you have the luxury of low pressure to compete, it seems like a no-brainer to give Lavarnway the majority of the PT.

[YTF]

I'm fine with the deal, but it seems like there should have been a move with Lavarnway or Salty lined up to happen immediately after. I really don't want to hear about Lavarnway going back to AAA, Salty being a 1B option, enough at bats for everyone, ect. If you've been hoping/trying to move Salty since July, cross your fingers now doesn't seem like a good idea.

I'd love for the Mets to get involved.

'Tis the season. Something could well be in the works, after all we're not really that far removed from the announcement of this deal and it might be a good idea to let Ross pass the physical first. If there are a couple of suitors for whichever piece the Sox may deem expendable, why not play them against each other in a sparse market where you have already removed an affordable and viable option for several teams. In fact THIS move could bring them several new suitors and one or two may be willing to overpay given what this market is.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Right - because no one saw the Valentine thing coming. Don't hurt yourself trying to pay yourself on the back for that one. Are we going to be subjected to that episode of "I told you so" for the next 4 years? Keep your prognosticating focused on loud mouth managers.

As for the Pedroia comp, Lavarnway has also crushed the ball in the minors. Which minor league line would you prefer?

.307/.392/.452

or

.286/.376/.506

As for Pedey's exposures to the major, you're also wrong here. Pedroia sucked both in his September 2006 debut as well as the first 5 weeks of his 2007 season, comprising approximately 160 PA. At that point, he was sitting with a .540 OPS for his MLB career. I'm sure you were eager to bury him then, given such a poor MLB track record, right?

This sort of "if he doesn't perform right away, then he's no good" attitude is exactly the wrong approach if you want to develop young players. They don't all kill it out of the box. You'd likely give you left testicle for Alex Gordon right now - what did he do in his first few years in KC?

I have never once said the things you're attributing to me regarding performing right away, since I was a Pedroia supporter having seen his minor league performances quite a bit. It's also quite fucking rich to claim I said that while also trying to denigrate me for Buchholz, who, IIRC, came out of the major league gates like a house on fire.

The Pedey thing gets more ridiculous by the hour, as there's several parsec's difference between a guy making his ML debut a week after turning 23 and having risen steadily through the minor league ranks and a guy like Lavarnway who is currently 25 and still trying to get established after having been up and down a few times already.

I'll make this simple: I would rather they kept Salty over Lavarnway even if the cost for Salty will increase soon.

[seantoo]

...... But from the Sox perspective, the early signing gives them a flexible approach to deals in the winter, and to me -- I can't read it any other way -- signals that Lavarnway might be had in the right deal. Certainly other clubs notice.

I think you missed 2 other possibilities as noted by Savin Hillbilly
"1) They're disenchanted with Lavarnway and plan to trade him, creating a need for a new #2.

2) They're disenchanted with Salty and plan to trade him and give Lavarnway a shot at the starting job, and wanted the best backup they could find in case Lavarnway doesn't cut it and they need to give the #2 more playing time.

3) They are planning to convert either Salty or Lavarnway to 1B, creating a need for another catcher."

[bosockboy]

I'd love for the Mets to get involved.

Salty for Niese would be pretty solid for both sides.

As far as the catching situation, if Salty is moved they can always insure the position by signing Napoli for 1B...which seems very possible.

[SoxScout]

Salty for Niese would be pretty solid for both sides.

I saw Lauber mention that before, thought it was pure craziness. I feel like we'd need to like include Webster or something. Imagine if we had Niese and what we'd want?

Edited by SoxScout, 10 November 2012 - 05:00 PM.

[maufman]

I have never once said the things you're attributing to me regarding performing right away, since I was a Pedroia supporter having seen his minor league performances quite a bit. It's also quite fucking rich to claim I said that while also trying to denigrate me for Buchholz, who, IIRC, came out of the major league gates like a house on fire.

The Pedey thing gets more ridiculous by the hour, as there's several parsec's difference between a guy making his ML debut a week after turning 23 and having risen steadily through the minor league ranks and a guy like Lavarnway who is currently 25 and still trying to get established after having been up and down a few times already.

I'll make this simple: I would rather they kept Salty over Lavarnway even if the cost for Salty will increase soon.

Your point of view is based on your opinion of Lavarnway. I hope the FO is making decisions based on their opinion of Salty.

If they think Salty is a satisfactory long-term solution, they should extend him and trade Lavarnway. Like you, I don't think Lavarnway is promising enough to trade away a solid starter who's willing to sign long term at reasonable dollars.

Some of us, however, aren't sold on Salty as the long-term solution. If the FO isn't sold, the time to trade him is now. In that event, giving Lavarnway 100+ starts in a transition year to see what you've got makes sense. There's a fair chance that this approach ultimately leads to overpaying a FA down the road when Lavarnway doesn't cut it.

[Trlicek's Whip]

There's several parsec's difference between a guy making his ML debut a week after turning 23 and having risen steadily through the minor league ranks and a guy like Lavarnway who is currently 25 and still trying to get established after having been up and down a few times already.

Salty was acquired by BOS when he was 25 and had already compiled 813 AB's in the majors by that age.

Lavarnway has compiled a staggeringly huge sample size of 192 AB's in the majors going into his own age 25 season. According to you Lavarnway has definitely hit his ceiling already. Maybe he has. But to dial up the "he's 25, it's over" angle as your primary reason is unsound.

Salty did the exact same "up and down a few times already" with two other teams spread out over four more ML seasons, showing nothing. And finally didn't actually start hitting HR's - incidentally, his sole true outcome as a hitter and a fielder - until older than your Logan's Run-esque 25-year old cutoff.

If you like Jarrod and hate Ryan, great. But to hammer away stubbornly using these apple & orange numbers to bolster your beef, it reads as if Karl Rove had Salty in his fantasy baseball keeper league.

Edited by Trlicek's Whip, 10 November 2012 - 06:21 PM.

[The Gray Eagle]

I saw Lauber mention that before, thought it was pure craziness. I feel like we'd need to like include Webster or something. Imagine if we had Niese and what we'd want?

Yeah, the Mets would be crazy to trade Niese for Salty, can't see that one happening. But what about Ike Davis, aren't they down on him? He hit 32 bombs last year, but Salty hit 25, which is a lot of HRs for a catcher. That might be a better trade match.

[Yo La Tengo]

If we're looking at Salty and Lavarnway in a vacuum, than I agree with SJH... but, the determining factor will likely be how other teams value the two, as in, which one brings the highest amount of relative value in a trade. A contending team in need of a catcher would likely favor Salty etc. etc. I think the Ross signing is a great step in creating roster flexibility.

Edited by Yo La Tengo, 10 November 2012 - 06:06 PM.

[SydneySox]

... there's several parsec's difference between a guy making his ML debut a week after turning 23 and having risen steadily through the minor league ranks and a guy like Lavarnway who is currently 25 and still trying to get established after having been up and down a few times already.

Don't see why you use a measure of time to describe their shortcomings but...

Apart from the Salty production issue, what jumps out to me here and through the insider info that Ross is coming on not to be an everyday catcher is that Salty will be moved also because he wouldn't be keen on stepping back to make room for Lavarnway.

If Salty wants to be an everyday catcher it won't be here if Boston is focused on developing Lavarnway. This suggests to me they're going to trade him at his own internal request or with the expectation he would be making such a request.

Ross appears to be coming in with the knowledge that he will be playing a shared role with Lavarnway, possibly even as a mentor. Whether you like Lavarnway or not, I think this means they're committing to him next year.

[HriniakPosterChild]

Lovely, two years for a chain of American off-price department stores.



Great work, guys.

[someoneanywhere]

I think you missed 2 other possibilities as noted by Savin Hillbilly
"1) They're disenchanted with Lavarnway and plan to trade him, creating a need for a new #2.

2) They're disenchanted with Salty and plan to trade him and give Lavarnway a shot at the starting job, and wanted the best backup they could find in case Lavarnway doesn't cut it and they need to give the #2 more playing time.

3) They are planning to convert either Salty or Lavarnway to 1B, creating a need for another catcher."

Nope, didn't miss them. The first part of my post -- which you omitted in your quoting of it -- is clear. They can go multiple ways. I doubt #3 is an option at all. But either of the first two trade scenarios is possible. (My point with Lavarnway is not that he will be dealt, or even that he is the preferred one to be dealt, but that he is on the table in the right deal.)

The strategic niceness of this move is its quickness, which they were allowed to exploit becuase they could pay him that kind of money. There is no market yet. So the Sox just made it. And thanks to financial flexibility they have personnel flexibility.

[OttoC]

Ross's Gull...well, it has red socks. As does Ross's Goose.

[dbn]

Lovely, two years for a chain of American off-price department stores.



Great work, guys.

You're ignoring the fact that there is a ton of value there.

It seems reasonable to gauge the market for both Salty and Lavarny before deciding which (if either) to deal. All things being equal, I'd trade Salty but that may be highly biased by my desire to see them gamble on the kids and bank the money to spend in 2014.

[Quintanariffic]

I have never once said the things you're attributing to me regarding performing right away, since I was a Pedroia supporter having seen his minor league performances quite a bit. It's also quite fucking rich to claim I said that while also trying to denigrate me for Buchholz, who, IIRC, came out of the major league gates like a house on fire.

If you can show where I claimed you made such a statement, be my guest. It's clear I was simply illustrating the similarities between the Pedroia situation and this one in terms of people insisting he wasn't ready or never would be. Both players who steadily rose through the minor league ranks and who raked at every level. Lavarnway's having arrived 2 years older is attributable to the fact that he is a) a catcher b) was a more raw 6th round pick who was just learning how to be a catcher and c) the Sox didn't have perfectly viable alternatives as incumbents on the roster. As for Buchholz, you were quite ready to write him off when he was struggling despite the obvious talent. Me thinks you're a hair too quick on the trigger

The Pedey thing gets more ridiculous by the hour, as there's several parsec's difference between a guy making his ML debut a week after turning 23 and having risen steadily through the minor league ranks and a guy like Lavarnway who is currently 25 and still trying to get established after having been up and down a few times already.

Yet another canard. Lavarnway has been sent down exactly one time. It's pretty clear he was sent down to work on his defense, as the Sox weren't comfortable having both Salty and Lavarnway as their catchers given the defensive liabilities with that strategy.

I'll make this simple: I would rather they kept Salty over Lavarnway even if the cost for Salty will increase soon.

As others have said - it's about value. With Ross able to catch 60-80 games/year and the downside of Lavarnway possibly sucking thereby limited for a team that's unlikely to contend in 2013, why not spin Salty for a real need rather than let Lavarnway rot in AAA (where he has nothing left to prove) or trade him at the bottom of his value.

Can we play poker some time?

[Edelpeddle]

The Pedey thing gets more ridiculous by the hour, as there's several parsec's difference between a guy making his ML debut a week after turning 23 and having risen steadily through the minor league ranks and a guy like Lavarnway who is currently 25 and still trying to get established after having been up and down a few times already.

Lavarnway got a cup of coffee in 2011, it was less than 40 at bats. Call me crazy, but I choose to judge him by his .286/.376/.506 slash line in 1600 minor league at bats, his .295/.376/.439 slash state in 300 at bats at AAA last year and his .295/.390/.612 slash stat in 200 at bats at Triple A the year before rather than judging his ability on less than 200 at bats at the major league level.

[RedOctober3829]

They acquired a guy who can also perform concerts on his salary. Talk about versatility.

[Super Nomario]

Going in to 2012 I thought Lavarnway was the team's best prospect, but he had a crappy year. Adding together the MLE of his AAA line (about .260/.326/.379) to his MLB line (.157/.213/.248), we get .227/.291/.338. Obviously that's not going to cut it as an everyday catcher.

[SoxScout]

Found out why his BABIP is awesome, he uses the knuckle puck: http://mlb.mlb.com/v...tar_of_the_game

[pjheff]

Some of us, however, aren't sold on Salty as the long-term solution. If the FO isn't sold, the time to trade him is now. In that event, giving Lavarnway 100+ starts in a transition year to see what you've got makes sense.

I am largely in agreement with you, but why is the time to trade him now as opposed to July? I'm fine with trading Salty today if we're getting a serious solution in exchange, but for all of his warts both offensive and defensive, I'm in no hurry to move him if the return is not there. I think it'd be perfectly reasonable to send Lavarnway back to Pawtucket to learn how to hit and catch in the same game, splitting time between Salty and Ross at the ML level while seeing what develops in terms of our season and the trade market. If we're out of contention and we don't envision Salty as a long-term solution behind the dish, then trade him at the deadline and give Lavarnway the majority of the remaining starts so we know what we have going into next offseason.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

More from Rosenthal: For those wondering about #RedSox’s intentions at catcher, one rival exec says they’ve been shopping Saltalamacchia “for weeks.”

[Corsi]

Mike Giardi:

A source with knowledge says Saltalamacchia knows he's on the block and fully expects to have a new address by Christmas

https://twitter.com/...638104695906305

[redsoxstiff]

I don't think this tells us anything -- yet -- about what they will do with the current catching situation. What it does tell us -- what to me is striking about it -- is that the Sox can use that financial flexibility very strategically. We can assume that no one else was going to offer Ross more than he got -- otherwise he wouldn't have signed so quickly, and with a club that may not contend. But from the Sox perspective, the early signing gives them a flexible approach to deals in the winter, and to me -- I can't read it any other way -- signals that Lavarnway might be had in the right deal. Certainly other clubs notice.

This could be Salty not Lavarnway...

[SoxScout]

Pirates beat guy raises some possibilites:

Pirates general manager Neal Huntington and Boston Red Sox counterpart Ben Cherington, both graduates of the University of Massachusetts, will be on the Amherst campus Tuesday night to participate in the school's "Covering the Bases -- An Evening with our GMs" program. Huntington needs a catcher -- bad. Cherington has three of them. So could the roundtable discussion -- which will also involve Indians GM Chris Antonetti -- include a little sidebar session between Huntington and Cherington?

The Bucs and the BoSox could be compatible trade partners. Boston's areas of need include first base and the outfield, and the Pirates have a surplus of Major League experience at both. Garrett Jones is being crowded at both of his platoon positions, and Jose Tabata is someone who could draw interest.

Complicating matters for someone like Huntington is the number of other clubs also seeking catching. The depth of the free-agent market can't sustain that competition; most of the dozen-plus out there are in their '30s. And demand will drive up the trade request of teams with an expendable piece -- the very reason Cherington jumped for Ross.

"It's a thin market, yeah," Huntington said. "It's an incredibly taxing position and good catchers are really hard to come by -- especially the dual threats. We're working on it ... whether via trade or via free agency, we'd like to add a catcher to our mix."

http://mlb.mlb.com/n...ws_mlb&c_id=mlb

[OttoC]

Strikes me that Ross would be a better teacher for Lavarnway at the catcher position than Saltalamacchia.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Jones is one of those guys who looks completely uninteresting until you glance at his platoon splits. If you never let him see a LHP, he's a reasonably solid hitter: .289/.332/.556 in 2012, .279/.348/.504 career. Not an OBP god no matter how you slice it, but respectable overall.

It would be interesting to combine trading for Jones and signing Napoli; you could pull a de facto Jones/Ross platoon--Jones 1B/Napoli C vs. RHP, Napoli 1B/Ross C vs. LHP. Or, you could stick Jones in LF and platoon him with Sands for a very low-cost solution that could turn out to give excellent offensive bang-for-buck.

Tabata is interesting in a different way. He took a step backward on several fronts this year, including plate discipline, BABIP and baserunning, which might be a red flag, but might also present a buy-low opportunity.

[YTF]

So I come here thinking that IF Salty's the odd man out, where do the Sox move him and what hole do they fill? And I'm thinking perhaps to Pittsburgh for Garrett Jones. Apparently I was a bit slow on the draw here. Reading Savin Hillibilly's take on this really is intriguing. That's some pretty good roster flexibility and I believe Jones has actually played more games in right field than left. .

[Jordu]

Strikes me that Ross would be a better teacher for Lavarnway at the catcher position than Saltalamacchia.

Exactly, and if that's the thinking in the FO, I like it. My first thought when they signed Ross was that they are making a commitment to Lavarnway. He's earned that commitment with his offensive performance on the farm and his defensive improvement.

[Lose Remerswaal]

Sox originally drafted Pedro Alvarez, before he went to Vandy and then joined the Pirates as a top draft pick.

Luckily, we don't need a third baseman.

[OCD SS]

Sox originally drafted Pedro Alvarez, before he went to Vandy and then joined the Pirates as a top draft pick.

Luckily, we don't need a third baseman.

Is it lucky or unlucky that Alvarez isn't really a 3Bman?

[Lose Remerswaal]

He got way too big to be a SS, he might make it at First or as a DH, but he has to start hitting a bit better before I'd be interested in him

[The Boomer]

He got way too big to be a SS, he might make it at First or as a DH, but he has to start hitting a bit better before I'd be interested in him

Can't the Pirates say the same thing about Salty or Lavarnway? Pedro Alvarez might be the kind of buy low acquisition that could pay off with a change of scenery.

[Rough Carrigan]

Regarding teaching catchers, can Ross teach Lavarnway to do the Jedi pitch framing trick like Jose Molina. Check out the video at Baseball Prospectus from the link below. Inside, outside, up, down it doesn't matter. Molina's head does not move. And maybe it's a bullshit stat but someone's touting Molina as having saved 50 runs. That seems like hyperbole. But if you can get your pitchers strikes on deliveries 18 inches off the plate, your pitchers will love you.

http://www.baseballp...articleid=18896

[ScubaSteveAvery]

Strikes me that Ross would be a better teacher for Lavarnway at the catcher position than Saltalamacchia.

Why?

[Harry Hooper]

Why?

Probably the reality that one is defensively competent and the other isn't.

[pjr]

Pete Abraham‏@PeteAbe
#RedSox announce signing of David Ross. Why they did it at 9:10 p.m. is anybody's guess.

[seantoo]

Nope, didn't miss them. The first part of my post -- which you omitted in your quoting of it -- is clear. They can go multiple ways. I doubt #3 is an option at all. But either of the first two trade scenarios is possible. (My point with Lavarnway is not that he will be dealt, or even that he is the preferred one to be dealt, but that he is on the table in the right deal.)

The strategic niceness of this move is its quickness, which they were allowed to exploit becuase they could pay him that kind of money. There is no market yet. So the Sox just made it. And thanks to financial flexibility they have personnel flexibility.

I read the post several times and had trouble understanding it. Of all the possibilities it appears that Salty being moved is the most likely.