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Jason Bay?


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#1 xjack


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Posted 07 November 2012 - 06:35 PM

The Mets released Jason Bay today: http://espn.go.com/b...erminated-early

Given Bay's past success in Fenway, how little he would probably cost, and the Sox' lack of current outfield options, I'd be in favor of signing him to a incentive-laden, one-year contract.... Truthfully, I'd rather do that than bring back Ryan Sweeney or give three years to Cody Ross.

#2 soxfaninyankeeland


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Posted 07 November 2012 - 06:51 PM

Sweeney and Ross have both made contact with a baseball using a bat within the last 3 years. Letting Jason Bay leave feels like the last thing Sox' management was right about. Bringing him back is a terrible idea.

#3 xjack


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Posted 07 November 2012 - 06:56 PM

Bay's contact rate last year (70%) was the same as it was in 2009. He's only 34, and he had a .185 BABIP last year.

#4 maufman


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Posted 07 November 2012 - 07:05 PM

At this point, Jason Bay is someone you bring in on a minor-league contract. There's an excellent chance he's cooked.

If fond memories of his time here and the lack of entrenched regulars at our corner OF spots persuade him to try out here rather than elsewhere, I'm in favor.

#5 pjr

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 09:15 PM

Nick Cafardo@nickcafardo
Cherington said he hasn't ruled out Jason Bay but said his people have not discussed him yet. Was "surprised" it didn't work with Mets.

#6 mr_smith02

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 09:23 PM

No, 1000 times no.

#7 curly2

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 09:30 PM

I'm with maufman. Give Bay a minor league deal but assemble the team like he's NOT going to make it. If somehow he hits his way onto the team, great, but if not, you can cut him in Fort Myers or let him play at Pawtucket with a June 1 opt-out date.

#8 C4CRVT

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 09:33 PM

There is only one silver lining I see http://www.fangraphs...age=0&type=mini is that the BABIP is likely to correct itself a little. I guess there are dumber things to do with half a million dollars.

Maybe worth a spring training invite but jeez, those are three sad years and all headed in the wrong direction.

Edited by C4CRVT, 07 November 2012 - 09:34 PM.


#9 Andrew


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Posted 07 November 2012 - 09:45 PM

How much of this do you think was linked to his concussion?

#10 Comeback Kid

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 10:33 PM

How much of this do you think was linked to his concussion?


Just an anecdote, but I heard some good discussion on a podcast a few months ago speulating that Canadian MLB players may be more prone to concussions and related ongoing issues due to the amount of youth hockey they played. Small sample of course, but besides Bay, Morneau and Koskie also come to mind.

#11 Savin Hillbilly


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Posted 08 November 2012 - 08:50 AM

There is only one silver lining I see http://www.fangraphs...age=0&type=mini is that the BABIP is likely to correct itself a little.


Plug in a .300 BABIP and his slash line goes skyrocketing all the way to .237/.302/.381. His power's gone, his plate discipline's going, he never was much good at contact. He's a good guy and I enjoyed having him here back when he could still play, but he is more cooked than my grandmother's Thanksgiving brussels sprouts. Pass, please.

#12 Philip Jeff Frye


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Posted 08 November 2012 - 09:16 AM

Plug in a .300 BABIP and his slash line goes skyrocketing all the way to .237/.302/.381. His power's gone, his plate discipline's going, he never was much good at contact. He's a good guy and I enjoyed having him here back when he could still play, but he is more cooked than my grandmother's Thanksgiving brussels sprouts. Pass, please.

And he was never that good in the field.

#13 wade boggs chicken dinner


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Posted 08 November 2012 - 09:27 AM

Honestly, if he would agree to some kind of make good deal, I don't know why you wouldn't give it to him. He may be cooked in the grand scheme of things, but there's no telling what lightening one might be able to catch in the bottle for one season (see: Orioles). If he agrees to a minor-league deal, that's a no-brainer. Nothing like a little competition in camp.

#14 drleather2001


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Posted 08 November 2012 - 09:34 AM

He's been in a steep decline for three years in every offensive category. He's been injured multiple times in the past couple of years, including two concussions. He'll be 34 next year.

It boggles my mind that people are even considering this guy as a viable roster-filler. He's done.

#15 xjack


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Posted 08 November 2012 - 12:39 PM

He's been injured multiple times in the past couple of years, including two concussions. He'll be 34 next year.

Thirty-four is just not that old, assuming we're talking about a one-year contract. Could he be done? I guess. But I just don't know how you could know that for certain. For every George Scott who inexplicably forgot how to hit at age 33 or 34, I can name a couple other one-time All-Stars who had least one bounce-back season after people claimed they were cooked. David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, even Vernon Wells in 2010.

Here's a quote from the WEEI story on Bay:

"However, one talent evaluator who saw Bay with the Mets suggested that the 34-year-old still can be a solid big league contibutor.
"I think no player needs a fresh start more than him. I actually don't think he is done," said the evaluator. "His problems [in New York] were more mental than physical."

Bay's splits are sufficiently odd to raise questions about whether his problems were in fact more mental than physical. The conventional wisdom is that Citi Field sapped his power and ruined his hitting approach. While there's no doubt CitiField hurt Bay's production, he actually had a .750 OPS at home from 2010-2012 versus .634 on the road. Those are some pretty weird splits for a guy whose swing is ill-suited for CitiField.

#16 drleather2001


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Posted 10 November 2012 - 01:26 AM

David Ortiz has never had a prolonged, three-year, drop off, complete with two brain injuries. Nor did any of the other guys that you mentioned, and certainly not at the age that Bay is at.

Yea, he could come back. But the guys you list are not valid comps.

#17 lexrageorge

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Posted 10 November 2012 - 11:36 AM

If he's willing to come here on a minor league contract, I fail to see the risk. See in spring training if it appears he has anything left. If not, he's done, and nothing's lost.

But I agree it's unlikely he's able to come back at this point.

#18 xjack


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Posted 10 November 2012 - 12:25 PM

But the guys you list are not valid comps.


There's never going to be an exact comp. But if you want guys who came back from serious concussions or head injuries, consider Dwight Evans or even Tony C, who (incredibly) had one good year after being beaned.

#19 Savin Hillbilly


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Posted 10 November 2012 - 02:42 PM

If he's willing to come here on a minor league contract, I fail to see the risk.


The only risk I see is that signing him, even to a minor league deal as an acknowledged long shot, might make them one tick less motivated to find a more reliable corner OF solution. If they can sign him and then proceed as if he didn't exist, fine. But if the effect is to start adding "well, we have Bay" to the conversation about the OF situation, and it makes them more willing to pass on better players, not so good.

#20 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 10 November 2012 - 02:47 PM

Thing is, Bay isn't going to settle for a minor league deal at this point, so I don't think that's a realistic scenario. It will likely be Jan-Feb when he realizes that's the best he can do. Agree though, he's a guy you bring in for a look but you can't expect anything.

#21 Red(s)HawksFan


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Posted 10 November 2012 - 03:07 PM

The only risk I see is that signing him, even to a minor league deal as an acknowledged long shot, might make them one tick less motivated to find a more reliable corner OF solution. If they can sign him and then proceed as if he didn't exist, fine. But if the effect is to start adding "well, we have Bay" to the conversation about the OF situation, and it makes them more willing to pass on better players, not so good.


Kind of like signing Padilla/Cook/Silva last winter was argued as the reason they didn't pursue a Kuroda/Jackson/Saunders type for the rotation? Big difference is this year they have no need to be as concerned about spending a few million bucks to overpay on a short deal for a better player. I don't think signing Bay to a minor league deal is going to be viewed as a viable substitute to signing someone like Hunter or Victorino or Swisher.

#22 lexrageorge

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Posted 10 November 2012 - 05:07 PM

Kind of like signing Padilla/Cook/Silva last winter was argued as the reason they didn't pursue a Kuroda/Jackson/Saunders type for the rotation? Big difference is this year they have no need to be as concerned about spending a few million bucks to overpay on a short deal for a better player. I don't think signing Bay to a minor league deal is going to be viewed as a viable substitute to signing someone like Hunter or Victorino or Swisher.


The difference was that the Sox probably felt going into last season the starting rotation would be OK with Lester/Beckett/Buchholz/Doubront/Bard. Not an unreasonable position, even if it didn't work out that way. I don't believe they have any such illusions about corner OF position this year.

#23 Corsi


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Posted 13 November 2012 - 05:55 PM

Olney:

The Red Sox are among the teams in contact with Jason Bay, as he considers his options for 2013. Looking for opportunity, familiarity.

https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/268486095434551296
link to tweet

#24 dbn

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Posted 13 November 2012 - 08:27 PM

year team PAs rWAR salary
2009 BOS 638 4.9 $7.8M
2010 NYM 401 1.6 $8.6M
2011 NYM 509 0.8 $18M
2012 NYM 215 -1.3 $16M

A) The Red Sox let Jason Bay go at the correct time, and
B) he might be better in 2013 than a rWAR of -1.3, but I know a trend when I see one.

#25 redsoxstiff


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Posted 16 November 2012 - 01:02 PM

Honestly, if he would agree to some kind of make good deal, I don't know why you wouldn't give it to him. He may be cooked in the grand scheme of things, but there's no telling what lightening one might be able to catch in the bottle for one season (see: Orioles). If he agrees to a minor-league deal, that's a no-brainer. Nothing like a little competition in camp.


I agree...It is very unlikely that he would return and play as well as he did for us...We've loot to take a flier on Bay...Three years down and injuries at 34 create a high reward, low risk for us if Ben structures a realistic contract...

I confess that I really liked him here so I'm bent towards him now ...Pyschological rebounds ...may override physical limitation...

Edited by redsoxstiff, 17 November 2012 - 01:28 PM.


#26 mabrowndog


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Posted 05 December 2012 - 03:05 PM

Guess we can lock this now...

@MartinoNYDN: Source: mariners sign Jason bay pending physical

#27 Quintanariffic

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 04:29 PM

Does this take Seattle out of the bidding for Hamilton? Looks like the suitors are now just the Sox and Rangers.

#28 Lose Remerswaal


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Posted 05 December 2012 - 04:32 PM

Does this take Seattle out of the bidding for Hamilton? Looks like the suitors are now just the Sox and Rangers.


The Yankees signed a Right Fielder?

#29 Red(s)HawksFan


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Posted 05 December 2012 - 04:34 PM

Does this take Seattle out of the bidding for Hamilton? Looks like the suitors are now just the Sox and Rangers.

Can't imagine a one-year, low-dollar deal to Jason Bay shuts the door on Hamilton at all. That's like saying the Sox are out on Hamilton because they have Daniel Nava on the roster.

#30 Joshv02

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 04:35 PM

Does this take Seattle out of the bidding for Hamilton? Looks like the suitors are now just the Sox and Rangers.

It was for less than a million, it sounds like. I don't think this really changes anything re Seattle. (I think Hamilton isn't going there in all events, however.)

#31 catomatic


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Posted 05 December 2012 - 04:42 PM

The Yankees signed a Right Fielder?

Things are quiet in NY. Too quiet. Could this be another stealth move by Cashman in the making? The most noise around Swisher is about the Indians, not the Yanks.......




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