98 replies to this topic

[alwyn96]

Not to steal thunder away from the other threads about what the Red Sox will look like in 2013, but I just wanted to throw a few ideas out there on the table.

1. We really have very little idea exactly what the front office is planning for this offseason. They got the coaching staff they had their heart set on, but otherwise they've given little indication what direction they're planning to go in for the 2013 season, be it punting, rebuilding, reloading, or re-inserting your favorite metaphor here.

2. The Red Sox have a history of making trades and signings nearly every offseason. They're usually an active team, so it would be a big surprise if the team as currently constituted were the team that goes into Spring Training. Let's not pretend this is what the team will look like.

3. The Red Sox have almost never started the season with rookie players (or really, any players) in starting positions who didn't project to be league-average or better hitters.

Now, this said, the Red Sox have a few different options for 2013.

A. Nothing succeeds like excess - Oscar Wilde
You Only Live Once, flags fly forever, and the Red Sox sign Hamilton, Greinke and Napoli. Maybe they slip in a Sanchez/Jackson/Marcum/Haren signing for good measure, dealing Doubront or Buchholz for, I don't know, Elvis Andrus. Maybe Justin Upton comes to town in lieu of Hamilton. The team is pretty much immediately a strong contender for a wildcard spot, if not the division.

Given the insatiable hunger of the vampyr Boston media for new souls to devour, I don't really see Hamilton or Greinke signing with Boston, given their histories. Upton seems like he'd cost a fortune in talent. This is probably pretty unlikely, although the Red Sox do love to make a splash. I wouldn't rule it out totally (just mostly).

B. Moderation in all things, especially moderation - Ralph Waldo Emerson
The Red Sox hedge their bets and sign Drew, maybe trade for Morneau or sign Napoli/Reynolds. They re-sign Ross and/or bring in a Victorino/Cabrera/Hunter/Pagan/Swisher/Upton/Drew on a shortish expensive deal. Maybe a trade for a Choo/Ethier/Gordon or one of the FA pitchers in A. The team can probably contend for a wildcard spot, assuming health and bounceback from the returning stars.

I personally think this is the most likely. It's in keeping with what the Red Sox have historically done, and makes sense in a major market with the new playoff format.

C It takes a very long time to become young - Pablo Picasso
John Henry decides he needs a yacht with a helicopter landing pad and Liverpool needs a new striker, and the Red Sox go cheap with what they've got plus Ross and Ortiz probably. Maybe Ellsbury is dealt for Andrus or a deal is swung for a Pence/DeJesus or something, and they bring in the Irish Jose Iglesias, Brendan Ryan, to teach young Jose how to keep a job while hitting 200. 1B/Corner OF is a Gomez/Sands/Kalish/Sweeney-headed monster, with Brentz filling in when all those guys inevitably get hurt by June. The team is a longshot to contend.

I don't see this as particularly likely either, but probably more likely than scenario A. Given points 2 and 3, I'm pretty confident something splashy will happen.

I'm also generally thinking they don't bring in much new pitching, since the point of Farrell seems to be that he 'gets' the current pitchers. You don't bring in Farrell and then trade the guys he worked well with, probably, so I didn't include many speculative pitching deals. YMMV. (Also, Rubby and Felix have the kind of names and strikeout rates you don't trade away)

I see this as more of a "what do you think the Red Sox will do" thread than a "this is what I think the Red Sox should do" thread. There are plenty of threads where we talk about what should happen. What do you think will happen?

Edited by alwyn96, 02 November 2012 - 03:29 AM.

[collings94]

B. Something has to be done to make the Sox seem like they are trying to win now, while the really build for the future. I agree on the fact that we will not see a big deal going down with the pitchers, but maybe a trade here or there. The lineup and the clubhouse gets a boost as Torii Hunter is brought in. Ellsbury is probably delt for prospects.

[TOleary25]

Here's what I see:

-Ortiz eventually resigns. Seems like posturing from Papi that Rangers would be seriously interested in giving more money than the Sox while losing a 1st round pick in the process for a 38 year old DH.

-Ellsbury is traded for pitching. I'm still unsure on whether that will be for prospects used in another trade or a cost controlled pitcher.

-At least one arm (maybe two) is added to the rotation. Likely on a short deal (Haren, Kuroda, Marcum, McCarthy)

-SS is handed to Iglesias to start the season

-Sox make a serious push for Nick Swisher. I'm not sure how much I would be for this move, depends on years/dollars Swisher can get in the offseason. Bad postseason may have hurt him some.

-Salty and Aceves are traded. As much as Lavarnway struggled at the end of the season, I think they like him more than Salty going forward. Aceves is traded because of the attitude issues.

-Mike Napoli is signed for 1B/backup catcher.

-Sox look for the next "Cody Ross" signing for one of the OF spots (Shane Victorino?)

-Veteran relief pitcher is added for stability (Mike Adams, Ryan Madsen, Soria)

Edited by TOleary25, 02 November 2012 - 08:32 AM.

[Bosox4416]

First I'd try to trade for a starting pitcher, a Josh Johnson or a Dan Haren or someone along those lines, without having to give up too much in terms of prospects

Then I'd try to trade for Justin Upton and one of Morneau/Davis or Morales for first base assuming the prospect demands going the other way was reasonable.

I'd then sign Mike Napoli for around 2/22 and try to sign Torri Hunter or Shane Victorino for 2/$24, although I wouldn't rule out a Nick Swisher type.

Jose Iglesias would be the starter at SS unless Stephen Drew were available for a 1 year rebuilding value type contract, signing Maicer Izturis as utility/insurance

If we can't get Upton then I'd re-sign Ross at 2/14, or go after both of Hunter and Victorino

Saltalamacchia, Kalish, Nava and anyone not in our top tier of prospects would be available as part of trades.


C - Napoli
1B - Morneau
2B - Pedroia
3B - Middlebrooks
SS - Iglesias
LF - Hunter
CF - Ellsbury
RF - Upton
DH - Ortiz

B - Ciriaco
B - Izturis
B - Sweeney
B - Lavarnway

SP - Lester
SP - Buchholz
SP - Haren
SP - Doubront
SP - Lackey

RP - Bailey
RP - Bard
RP - Tazawa
RP - Miller
RP - Morales
RP - Wilson
RP - Breslow

Total New Acquisition Cost. $56 for 2013.

Haren $15.5
Upton - $10
Hunter - $12
Morneau - $10 (Twins pay $4 million or Redsox trade lesser prospects)
Napoli -$11
Izturis - $1

Would put the Red Sox at around $150-155m or so with no long term commitments past 2014 when prospects are ready. If Upton, Morneau are successful, obviously they could be extended.

Edited by Bosox4416, 02 November 2012 - 11:07 AM.

[Outsider]

Sign Mike Napoli to a 4 year deal ~12M/year
Trade Jose Iglesias, Jerry Sands and Bryce Brentz for Jose Reyes
Sign Ryan Dempster to a 3 year deal ~13M per
Sign Lance Berkman to a 1 year deal, ~8M per
Re-sign David Ortiz to a 2 year deao, ~12M per

Promote Juan Carlos Linares

Ellsbury, CF
Reyes, SS
Pedroia, 2B
Ortiz, DH
Napoli, 1B
Berkman, LF
Middlebrooks, 3B
Ross, RF
Saltalamacchia, C

Lavarnway, C
Linares, OF
Gomez, 1B/3B
Ciriaco, UT

Lester
Buchholz
Dempster
Doubront
Lackey

Bailey
Aceves
Miller
Tazawa
Morales (swing)
2 spaces held open for camp competition (probably between Atchison, Bard and Hill along with whoever else looks good)

Call me crazy but if things break right I think that team would have a shot. Rotation's a bit soft, but there's enough experience and upside there to put something toether.

Edited by Outsider, 02 November 2012 - 11:33 AM.

[Towney007]

For me:

Sign Cody ross to a 2 year, $12 million deal
Sign David Ortiz to a 2 year, $26 million deal

Trade Alfredo Aceves for Dan Haren
Trade Bryce Brentz, Ryan Kalish, Alex Wilson and Brandon Jacobs to the Mets for Ike Davis (If not Davis, sign Adam LaRoche to a 2 year, $23 million deal with incentives)

Sign Stephen Drew to a 1 year, $6 million deal
Sign Ryan Ludwick to a 2 year, $16 million deal

So that would give you a roster of

C: Salty
1B: Davis
2B: Pedroia
SS: Drew
3B: Middlebrooks
RF: Ross
CF: Ellsbury
LF: Ludwick

INF: Ciriaco
OF: Sweeney
OF: Nava
C: Lavarnway
INF: Izturis


SP: Lester
SP: Buchholz
SP: Haren
SP: Doubront
SP: Lackey

Cl: Bailey
RSU: Tazawa
LSU: Miller
MRR: Melancon
MLL: Breslow
MR: Bard
LR: Mortensen

New Acquisition Cost: $31.5 million

Haren - $15.5
Ludwick- $8
Drew: $6 million
Izturis - $2 million

New contracts - $19 million
Ortiz: $13 million
Ross: $6 million

$50.5 million spent on payroll total, with savings on Ortiz/Aceves brings it to around $48 in contracts/trades/etc. Arbitration raises will also be due.

[usdballum]

For me:

Trade Bryce Brentz, Ryan Kalish, Alex Wilson and Brandon Jacobs to the Mets for Ike Davis (If not Davis, sign Adam LaRoche to a 2 year, $23 million deal with incentives)

That is alot of low-to-mid-level prospects for Ike Davis. Of course, the Mets would jump all over that deal.

[Minneapolis Millers]

Trade Bryce Brentz, Ryan Kalish, Alex Wilson and Brandon Jacobs to the Mets for Ike Davis (If not Davis, sign Adam LaRoche to a 2 year, $23 million deal with incentives)

You want to trade 3 of our best young OF prospects for a 1Bman, when we have 2 open OF spots right now and Ellsbury in his last year? Why??

Aceves for Haren, otoh, I'm definitely up for.

[BeantownIdaho]

Towney, I am afraid your prices are a little low....Laroche received a qualifying offer but will be looking for more with his monster year and glove. At the price of Haren I would rather have Jackson or Sanchez. My fear is not getting two solid pitchers when Lackey implodes.

[Towney007]

That is alot of low-to-mid-level prospects for Ike Davis. Of course, the Mets would jump all over that deal.

Well, Davis - for all his upside - is still somewhat of a question mark himself. He hasn't exactly put it all together. Albert Pujols is is not. Kalish is a wild card, while Wilson and Brentz are probably your two best pieces. Jacobs is probably going to profile as a poor man's Ryan Howard. Even if it cost one of Bogaerts, Barnes or Bradley - I'd probably do it, but not before I tried to burn my middle of the road prospects.

You want to trade 3 of our best young OF prospects for a 1Bman, when we have 2 open OF spots right now and Ellsbury in his last year? Why??

1.) Corner outfielders are abundant
2.) You have to give up something to get something. A cost controlled, high-upside player like Davis will come with a price.
3.) Red Sox fans overvalue Ellsbury by a lot. I don't think he's going to bring back anywhere near the haul people think he will. Might as well hang onto him and hope for the best.
4.) With Davis at 1B, you're not spending stupid money there, with Ellsbury still in CF, you're not looking at spending to insert another OFer. Basically, it leaves you with your corners left to fill, of which you'll easily have the money to do with a pretty abundant field to pick from. Of course, none of them are going to be long-term solution guys.

Essentially you'd be:

-Adding Davis as a core piece to accompany Pedroia, Buchholz, Lester and Middlebrooks. Your last piece comes from the Barnes/Bogaerts/Bradley trio, even if one emerges. With Davis, you're accelerating the rebuilding process and extending the time at the top.
-Sitting on Ellsbury hoping to build value. If it's not there, take it on the chin and trade him at the deadline. Best case scenario is that he gives us a nice young return (possibly the chance to add another core piece). Worst case is he nets a B prospect or two. Either way, it's worth hanging onto him.
-Drawing from the area of the market that's most abundant, rather that buying in areas that are scarce.

T

owney, I am afraid your prices are a little low....Laroche received a qualifying offer but will be looking for more with his monster year and glove. At the price of Haren I would rather have Jackson or Sanchez. My fear is not getting two solid pitchers when Lackey implodes.

I don't think the AAV is the issue for LaRoche. I think the years are. If he thinks he can get more years, god bless him. I don't think anyone's giving him three years. He's also by far the best option on the market outside of Davis...

-Napoli is an idiot overpay waiting to happen. Best case scenario is someone overpays to see if he's the guy he was last year. Personally, the extra $10-$20 million to nab him over LaRoche isn't worth the peek when LaRoche is almost as good, if not flatly the better player.
-Everyone else has incredible issues. Lee and Berkman are incredibly old and lousy defenders in their advanced age. Pena is a mess. Kotchman is a platoon player at best. Loney sucks. The only other guy really worth looking at is Swisher, who could end up anywhere for a ridiculous price. I'd rather sit at 2-3 years and $25-$36 million for LaRoche than any of them. At least I know what the guy is capable of.


And to the Haren thing - today - with the hindsight of how the market just played out for him, I wouldn't touch Haren with a 10 foot pole. The fact that no one was willing to match/pay a Carlos Marmol and a $10 million salary dump for him is pretty telling. The more I run away from Jackson, the harder he pulls me back in. Sanchez I like a lot, too - I just think his price is going to get silly in this market. Jackson *might* be more reasonable, even with Boras as his agent.

[TOleary25]

-Napoli is an idiot overpay waiting to happen. Best case scenario is someone overpays to see if he's the guy he was last year. Personally, the extra $10-$20 million to nab him over LaRoche isn't worth the peek when LaRoche is almost as good, if not flatly the better player

I don't see Napoli getting more than the 3 year $36 million that you projected for Laroche. Every salary projection I've seen has them at similar money or Napoli making less. They've been pretty similar hitters throughout their careers, and I think I'd rather gamble on Napoli simply because of his versatility and age. He seems to be a good fit for Fenway too.

[alwyn96]

I don't see Napoli getting more than the 3 year $36 million that you projected for Laroche. Every salary projection I've seen has them at similar money or Napoli making less. They've been pretty similar hitters throughout their careers, and I think I'd rather gamble on Napoli simply because of his versatility and age. He seems to be a good fit for Fenway too.

Yeah, the Rangers didn't even want him for 1 year/$13M. I'd be surprised if he gets wildly overpaid. He's kind of been underrated basically his whole career. Part of it is probably because he can suck for long periods and then goes white-hot for like a week or so and then sucks again. The sucking may be due in part to being beat up from catching, or he's just a seriously streaky dude. EIther way, he absolutely kills it in Fenway and I think he'd be pretty successful there on the right deal.

Edited by alwyn96, 07 November 2012 - 03:32 AM.

[RochesterSamHorn]

Here's an idea that's a little 'out there', but to me is worth entertaining. Red Sox/Dodgers redux. We need an ace to top our rotation. L.A. has just one positional spot where they have a hole, so...... Kershaw to the Sox for a package of Dustin Pedroia + (Doubront?). Pedroia would be perfect for the Dodgers lineup. He's from Calif., best friends with Ethier, and the ultimate team player. He is exactly what the Dodgers need, because when you have a team full of stars, they sometimes get complacent, thinking they don't have to work as hard because someone else will come through. Pedroia wouldn't let that happen. He would be the spark-plug that would run that engine. This would not have to be a hard sell.

[alwyn96]

Here's an idea that's a little 'out there', but to me is worth entertaining. Red Sox/Dodgers redux. We need an ace to top our rotation. L.A. has just one positional spot where they have a hole, so...... Kershaw to the Sox for a package of Dustin Pedroia + (Doubront?). Pedroia would be perfect for the Dodgers lineup. He's from Calif., best friends with Ethier, and the ultimate team player. He is exactly what the Dodgers need, because when you have a team full of stars, they sometimes get complacent, thinking they don't have to work as hard because someone else will come through. Pedroia wouldn't let that happen. He would be the spark-plug that would run that engine. This would not have to be a hard sell.

Well, it would mean the Dodgers trade one of the best pitchers in baseball who is young and cost controlled when they're clearly going for it now. I'm not sure they'd trade Kershaw for almost anything at this point.

[TOleary25]

Well, it would mean the Dodgers trade one of the best pitchers in baseball who is young and cost controlled when they're clearly going for it now. I'm not sure they'd trade Kershaw for almost anything at this point.

Yea, probably a short list of Harper and Trout.

[ehaz]

Sign Anibal Sanchez 4/65
Sign Ryan Ludwick 2/14
Sign Stephen Drew 1/10 player option (Beltre)
Sign Joakim Soria 1/8

Trade Cecchini, Brentz and Pimentel for Ike Davis
Trade Webster, Bradley and Iglesias for Justin Upton

C - Salty
1B - Ike Davis
2B - Dustin Pedroia
SS - Stephen Drew
3B - Will Middlebrooks
RF - Justin Upton
CF - Jacoby Ellsbury
LF - Ryan Ludwick

SP1 Lester
SP2 Sanchez
SP3 Buchholz
SP4 Doubront
SP5 Lackey
SP6 De la Rosa/Morales

BN Lavarnway
BN Ciriaco
BN Sweeney
BN Kalish
BN Sands

RP Bailey
RP Bard
RP Soria
RP Miller
RP Tazawa
whoever else from ST

I'd go to war with that team. Keep Bogaerts/Barnes and stay young with trades for under 26 guys like Davis and Upton who fill key positions.

Edited by ehaz, 07 November 2012 - 09:48 PM.

[Outsider]

We're going into next year with Ryan Ludwick as one of our starting corner outfielders?

Yeah, how about no. Talk about a great way to overpay for last year.

Also, your Upton trade surprises me by actually being somewhere in the ballpark of what the D-Backs might accept for Upton but I have my doubts they'll accept a trade that offers zero big league ready players. It has what you might call the right dollar amount, just in the wrong denominations.

Personally I suspect any trade for Upton costs us Middlebrooks.

The Ike Davis trade is not close. Pimentel needs to reestablish his value, right now he has little to none. Cecchini is an A-baller and is worth taking a flyer on longterm, but not at the cost of a solid big league regular. The only player of any real value in that trade is Brentz and no one's trading an estabished 30 HR guy for Bryce Brentz..

Edited by Outsider, 08 November 2012 - 12:37 AM.

[alwyn96]

We're going into next year with Ryan Ludwick as one of our starting corner outfielders?

Yeah, how about no. Talk about a great way to overpay for last year.

You think Ludwick will get a big contract this year? He seems like a guy who never gets any respect. I mean, the dude can't stay healthy, is terrible in the field and approaches Molina-level slowness, but he's around a league average corner OF with upside who'd probably sign a short deal. I mean, obviously you don't want to overpay in years for him, but given his defensive limitations, LF in Fenway is made for a Ludwick-type. I could see him putting up some league average numbers in Boston, and a league average LF is worth around $7M - $10M/yr. 2/$14 doesn't seem particularly rich. He'd probably be hurt and right-handed enough to work Kalish in pretty well, and isn't so expensive that you couldn't kick him to the curb if Brentz or somebody pulls a Middlebrooks and flips out on AAA pitching.

Edited by alwyn96, 08 November 2012 - 03:33 AM.

[Outsider]

You're doing a great job of convincing me even more to have nothing to do with Ryan Ludwick.

I have a prejudice against outfielders. And especially against overpaying for outfielders who only hit unless they're right among the best in their league at that. I didn't love Manny but his bat shut me up, now we're going to have Manny only without most of the offense? No. I'd rather sign BJ Upton and play him in right, inconsistent bat and all.

Edited by Outsider, 08 November 2012 - 11:26 AM.

[alwyn96]

You're doing a great job of convincing me even more to have nothing to do with Ryan Ludwick.

I have a prejudice against outfielders. And especially against overpaying for outfielders who only hit unless they're right among the best in their league at that. I didn't love Manny but his bat shut me up, now we're going to have Manny only without most of the offense? No. I'd rather sign BJ Upton and play him in right, inconsistent bat and all.

You must be thrilled about the Jason Bay rumors, then.

Of course, I think it would probably be a near ML minimum or minor league deal if they do.

Edited by alwyn96, 08 November 2012 - 12:32 PM.

[Towney007]

I fail to see how Ludwick is anything other than an upgrade over Cody Ross. 1-2 year deals are exactly what the Red Sox should be chasing. Ludwick would profile well here - dead pull hitter, monster, LF where his limited defense won't hurt the team... $6-$7 million isn't anywhere close to an overpay. Considering what they're going to have to pay to upgrade pitching and potentially SS - AND considering RF in Fenway's actually more of a premium position - LF is low man on the totem poll. I'd have no issues with Ludwick there with Bradley, Bogaerts and Brentz on the way. Even Kalish might have a shot to take over. ON the right money, I'd have no problem with it.

[ehaz]

No Ryan Ludwick isn't that great. But I'd rather give him 2 years than overpay for Ross' season. He's more than adequate in fenways left and can give some at bats to Kalish. You can't put an all star at every position and Upton will be payed like one.

[Towney007]

Ryan Ludwick career: .266/.344/.466 .346 wOBA 10 Seasons, 16.2 fWAR
Cody Ross career: .262/.324/.460 .338 wOBA 9 seasons, 13.6 WAR

vs Lefties

Ludwick: .240/.322/.452 .334wOBA
Ross: .284/.353/.575 ,391wOBA

vs Righties

Ludwick: .273/.339/.471 .352 wOBA
Ross: .253/.312/..415 .317 w OBA

Ludwick's splits a lot more balance. Brings less power, but also considering how much of Ross' power is tied up in the park, it makes no sense to pay for it twice. Considering what these two are asking for, I don't even know why people wouldn't immediately see Ludwick as the better option in almost every conceivable way.

[Tyrone Biggums]

Trades


1) Boston sends Salty and a minor league prospect to the Chicago White Sox for Gavin Floyd

Why Chicago does it? They need a catcher and if you think that Lavarnway hasn't shown anything in his time in the majors, Tyler Flowers has been twice as bad. Young catchers are almost as valuable as young pitchers.

Why Boston does it? Surplus of catching, aside from 2011 Floyd has been very reliable (ERA + is usually over 100) and could fit in nicely as a number 3, giving Webster/Barnes/De La Rosa time to develop, not to mention that his contract looks pretty good compared to what Sanchez and Greinke will get this offseason.

2) Boston sends Jacoby Ellsbury to Washington, Washington sends prospects to Boston, Boston sends Bryce Bentz and prospects acquired (Anthony Rendon and others) to Arizona for Justin Upton

The longest of long shots, it all depends how bad the Nationals want Bryce Harper out of Center Field, Rendon would give Boston the 3rd base prospect that Arizona wants.

Signings

Boston signs Ortiz 2/26 (Done)
Boston signs David Ross 2/6 (Done)
Boston signs Mike Napoli (1/14)
Boston signs Placido Polanco (1 year 1.5 million)
Boston signs Angel Pagan (1 year 4.5 million)
Boston signs Dallas Braden (1 year prove it deal)
Boston signs Jason Bay (1 year non guaranteed)
Boston signs Cody Ross (2 years 14 million)
Boston signs Ryan Madson (1 year 4 million)

Lineup
CF - Pagan
2B - Pedroia
1B - Napoli
DH- Papi
LF - Justin Upton
3B- Middlebrooks
RF- Ross
C - Lavarnway
SS- Iglesias

Bench - Polanco (Super Utility, backup at 2B and 3B mostly), Ciriaco, Sands, Ross

Rotation
Lester
Buchholz
Floyd
Lackey
Doubront

Bullpen
Tazawa
Bard
Melancon
Morales
Aceves
Bailey

Note: Madson is supposed to be ready by June so obviously he would fit into this some way shape or form. In this scenario Bay doesn't make the team, Braden goes on rehab assignment, has an out clause by May 1st. Bailey is the closer until he gets hurt. De La Rosa and Webster start the year in AAA.

[BobbyVsToiletSeat]

Why would we trade Salty for Floyd...I'm sorry but I don't want to take on any more albatrosses, there is a reason why Chicago is trying to move him. Plus we aren't contenders this year, might as well move him for the best prospect we can get and move on with a future all star behind the plate

Also why would we give Napoli 14 million? Are you insane? I'd give him 7 max, I'd rather see what we have in Sands who has great power potential. If you want to deal Salty here's an idea, bail Brett Wallace out of Houston the guy is a former top prospect and can mash. Also stay away from Upton he is overrated and giving up Ellsbury for Prospects is fine provided that you keep the prospects!!!

Edited by BobbyVsToiletSeat, 10 November 2012 - 08:17 PM.

[BobbyVsToiletSeat]

No Ryan Ludwick isn't that great. But I'd rather give him 2 years than overpay for Ross' season. He's more than adequate in fenways left and can give some at bats to Kalish. You can't put an all star at every position and Upton will be payed like one.

You have to give Kalish the job and let him run with it, see what you have. The Sox will finish in 4th this year we need to see what his potential is as an everyday outfielder

[alwyn96]

Why would we trade Salty for Floyd...I'm sorry but I don't want to take on any more albatrosses, there is a reason why Chicago is trying to move him. Plus we aren't contenders this year, might as well move him for the best prospect we can get and move on with a future all star behind the plate

Also why would we give Napoli 14 million? Are you insane? I'd give him 7 max, I'd rather see what we have in Sands who has great power potential. If you want to deal Salty here's an idea, bail Brett Wallace out of Houston the guy is a former top prospect and can mash. Also stay away from Upton he is overrated and giving up Ellsbury for Prospects is fine provided that you keep the prospects!!!

Let's stay on topic, please. We all know you love prospects with the burning fire of a thousand suns, but this thread is about predicting what will actually happen. What do you think the Red Sox will actually do?

Edited by alwyn96, 10 November 2012 - 10:19 PM.

[TOleary25]

You have to give Kalish the job and let him run with it, see what you have. The Sox will finish in 4th this year we need to see what his potential is as an everyday outfielder

Your acts getting old. You have no idea what this team will look like next season, for some reason you're obsessed with punting the next two years. The team you want the Sox to have would probably be the worst team in the MLB.

[ehaz]

You have to give Kalish the job and let him run with it, see what you have. The Sox will finish in 4th this year we need to see what his potential is as an everyday outfielder

Even while I disregard how your stupid statement on how the Sox are destined to finish 4th without even watching this offseason play out, even with the FO by all indications planning to field a competitive team, what exactly has Ryan Kalish shown you over the last 2 years? Besides, how many freaking outfielders did we play? It's a two year deal, we still sign Ludwick and have room for Kalish to get plenty of at bats if he actually shows a pulse this season.

[Trotsky]

I'm reminded of not too long ago, a poster by the name of Hughes 2.0 posting on NYYfans.com that the Yankees rotation would be 4 aces and a king:
Hughes
Chamberlain
Betances
Bunuelos
Kennedy

Of course the Sox rotation would be:
Buchholz
Bard
Masterson
Lester
Bowden

Lars Anderson would be kickin' it at first with a .950 OPS, Angel Beltre (?) would be anchoring the corner OF'ers with a .950 OPS forming the middle of a lineup for years and years.
I love the prospects but most of these guys fizzle out, even some that put up a good first season in the ML's*. A really, really great GM will still let a few slip through to another team, but hopefully they'll at least leverage those into something that will be a good return, even if it's for a short-term gain at the expense of seeing a former prospect turn into a perennial All Star for a different team.
Knowing what we know, we still turn Sanchez and Hanley into Beckett and Lowell. Even if Sanchez stayed healthy that whole time. Even if Hanley didn't start to regress. Note: That was a deal that Ben was directly responsible for. Not Theo.

That said, it's looking like Napoli will be filling out the 1B spot more and more.
I still think Ben will make a move to bring in an established corner OF'er. The team would be foolish to trust a spot to Kalish from what he's proven so far.

* I wouldn't blink if Middlebrooks turned into a pumpkin next season and ends up a backup corner IF'er for non-contending teams at all. His plate discipline frightens me, but he's earned at least to be pencilled in the 3rd base starter even if he stinks it up through spring training. He could turn into one of the best 3B's in the league for the next 7,8 years also..... but that BB% leads me to think he could end up the opposite.

Edited by Trotsky, 12 November 2012 - 01:23 PM.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

My guess at next year's roster:

CF Ellsbury
2B Pedroia
DH Ortiz
1B Napoli
RF Upton
3B WMB
C Lavarnway
LF Parra
SS Iglesias

Bench:
Nava - 4th OFer LHH off bench
Ciriaco - INF Utility Pinch Runner
Sands - Corner INF and OF RHH off bench
Ross - Backup C

The Sox pull off a huge trade that lands them Upton and Parra + possibly others from AZ. Doubront would go along with 4-5 others total. Possibly Aceves and Marrero included along with a couple of their better prospects (none of Barnes, Bradley or Bogey.) Ellsbury, Upton, and Parra would give them one of the best OF defenses they've had in a long time. They sign Napoli for 3 yrs at around $10 mil per maybe with an option for a 4th because he could DH when Papi's gone. Of course they could deal for just Upton. In that scenario I'd choose Cody Ross to return to play LF. The entire bench, other than D. Ross, could be upgraded as well through other acquisitions.

The rotation:

Lester
Buchholz
Floyd
Lackey
De la Rosa

The Sox flip Salty + prospects for Floyd from Chicago. Rubby shows he's ready in ST. Assuming things get themselves straightened out for Lester, Buchholz and, Lackey with a new pitching coach and the return of Farrell that's a formiddable rotation.

Bullpen:

Bailey - Closer
Tazawa - Setup, possible closer
Bard - Setup (hopefully)
Morales - Longman/ Spot Starter
Miller - LOOGY
Herrera - Middle relief
Grilli - Middle relief
Breslow - Middle relief

The Sox pick up Grilli cheap to round out the pen, 90 K's in 58.2 IP last year with some crazy reverse splits. They also trade for KC's Kelvin Herrera because he's young, has a rubber arm, absolutely filthy stuff, and is cost controlled. Saw this kid pitch last year and I've wanted the Sox to get him since. Probably not likely but I can dream. All in all a very solid pen even if someone else is subbed in for Herrera.

Add in some ST invites (Backup INF, OF, 6th/7th/8th starter, middle relief) and February can't come fast enough.

For those saying the Sox can't compete next year because they're so far off, this scenario adds 3 lineup spots, a starting pitcher, and a middle reliever or two. That's not a lot for a competitive team. Especially when we still have no idea what the rest of the division is going to look like next year. Every team has about the same amount of holes.

[LostinNJ]

I don't see them trading away prospects for the likes of Upton this offseason. I expect they want to get a clearer idea of what they have, and they will be skeptical of making a big sacrifice for an uncertain return. I think they will round out the roster mostly with more deals like the one for Ortiz -- Torii Hunter for two years, maybe Cody Ross for three years, maybe even both. They have flexibility going forward, and if prospects like Brentz and Bradley are deemed ready to contribute to a winning major league team, they can be moved in and these guys can easily be unloaded to another team that needs an affordable veteran. Flexibility will be the name of the game for the next couple of years.

[Trotsky]

I don't see them trading away prospects for the likes of Upton this offseason. I expect they want to get a clearer idea of what they have, and they will be skeptical of making a big sacrifice for an uncertain return. I think they will round out the roster mostly with more deals like the one for Ortiz -- Torii Hunter for two years, maybe Cody Ross for three years, maybe even both. They have flexibility going forward, and if prospects like Brentz and Bradley are deemed ready to contribute to a winning major league team, they can be moved in and these guys can easily be unloaded to another team that needs an affordable veteran. Flexibility will be the name of the game for the next couple of years.

While I don't blame Ben and the FO for misdirection to the fans if it throws off the competition, your belief that they will punt the next few years, settle into 4th place comfortably to wait and see what they have runs pretty contrary to statements from Ben and other insiders. This team has the flexibility to do both (hold onto prospects, compete for a World Series) and it seems they're going to do just that.

[TOleary25]

I'm not sure the Sox have the ability to acquire Upton without significantly overpaying. For the D'Backs, I think it starts and ends with one of WMB or Xander. There is no alternative for WMB at 3B and Xander has the potential to be a similar player to Upton so that wouldn't make sense for the Sox. I don't think Doubront plus prospects will get it done since Felix doesn't have a high ceiling and none of the other prospects are close to MLB ready, which is what the D'Backs want.

The only way I could see a trade possibly working is with another team involved. The Rangers already tried to go this route through the Braves but Atlanta wasn't willing to give up Simmons for Olt. Simmons value may never be higher and Pastornicky's value may never be lower so I'm a little suprised they aren't considering trading for Upton themselves. Although, Simmons looked like Jose Iglesias with hitting ability so I guess it's understandable why you'd want to hang on to that. I wonder if a package built around Ellsbury would interest Atlanta enough to move Simmons. Ellsbury, Brentz, and Cecchini maybe?

[LostinNJ]

While I don't blame Ben and the FO for misdirection to the fans if it throws off the competition, your belief that they will punt the next few years, settle into 4th place comfortably to wait and see what they have runs pretty contrary to statements from Ben and other insiders. This team has the flexibility to do both (hold onto prospects, compete for a World Series) and it seems they're going to do just that.

Who said punt the next few years? I never said that. Maintaining roster flexibility is not the same thing as punting. It's more like the opposite.

[alwyn96]

Well damn, there goes Reyes. And Josh Johnson, and Mark Buehrle, and John Buck, in a megadeal to a Red Sox division rival.

Another deal that's so crazy, I'm kind of surprised the Red Sox weren't in on it.

[BobbyVsToiletSeat]

Well damn, there goes Reyes. And Josh Johnson, and Mark Buehrle, and John Buck, in a megadeal to a Red Sox division rival.

Another deal that's so crazy, I'm kind of surprised the Red Sox weren't in on it.

We would be undoing everything that was done with the Nick Punto trade. Not a good business move to take on those terrible deals

[bill]

I wonder if the acquisition cost for Upton will be that high. He went from a star in 2011 to above average in 2012 and is about to be paid like a star. I think that is part of AZ motivation to trade him. Gammons said they wanted Iglesias in a deal this summer and Boston said no. He didn't say if they wanted anything else. Have to wonder if the trade Toronto just made makes them the favorite next year.

Edited by bill, 13 November 2012 - 09:53 PM.

[bill]

Concerning this year, the one thing I will say for sure is Ells will not be traded. I think the Sox will at least contend for a wild card and he will be an important figure in that.

[Towney007]

If the Red Sox did that, it'd fly in the face of everything they accomplished at the end of the year. The Blue Jays are better - but i'm not sure they're *that* much better. The Marlins were freaking terrible last year, so I'm not expecting much. On a team riddled with injuries last year, it's not like they're buying certainty with Johnson and Reyes... just more (more expensive at that) risk. Buehrle I like a lot. Everyone seems to be getting involved in nutty deals. I can't wait to see the waste land once these play out.

[alwyn96]

If the Red Sox did that, it'd fly in the face of everything they accomplished at the end of the year. The Blue Jays are better - but i'm not sure they're *that* much better. The Marlins were freaking terrible last year, so I'm not expecting much. On a team riddled with injuries last year, it's not like they're buying certainty with Johnson and Reyes... just more (more expensive at that) risk. Buehrle I like a lot. Everyone seems to be getting involved in nutty deals. I can't wait to see the waste land once these play out.

Well, they also got players who are a hell of a lot better than the ones they're trading away. The downside risk is probably the same, but the upside is way, way higher. At least for 2013. Those last few years on the Buehrle and Reyes deals may get a little dicey - I had no idea that Buehrle deal was so backloaded. Yeesh. With a decent 1B, they could be close to contenders for 2013-2014, though. The AL East just got a little tougher (assuming this trade actually goes through, of course).

I don't think this will effect what the Red Sox do this offseason very much, although I think their chances of making the playoffs next year may have taken a hit.

Edited by alwyn96, 14 November 2012 - 03:10 AM.

[doubrontsneighbor]

So now the the Marlins are in full fire sale, I wonder what it would take to pry Stanton off them. They now need a SS so Cuban born Inglesias would be a fit, Beyond Inglesias, I'd have to think they would ask for 2 of Bogart, Webster, De La Rosa, Brentzs. Stanton is still only 23 and could be a big part of the middle of the lineup for years to come.

[Trotsky]

I'd deal any (including X) for Stanton, and try to immediately ink that kid to a long term deal, buying out the arb years.

[TOleary25]

I'd deal any (including X) for Stanton, and try to immediately ink that kid to a long term deal, buying out the arb years.

As much as I would hate to give up Xander, this would be one of the few exceptions. Stanton's only 3 years older and already is an elite player. He hasn't even hit his arbitration years so it would take a ton to get him since every team in the league would be interested.

[Outsider]

So now the the Marlins are in full fire sale, I wonder what it would take to pry Stanton off them.

What will it take?

About 4 years or so, that's what.

[Trotsky]

What will it take?

About 4 years or so, that's what.

I dunno..... Loria is probably looking to put together a team of prospects under arb control for 4, 5 more years. I'd imagine if he could build a complete rotation and lineup top to bottom through dealing Stanton that he'd listen.
Again though, we'd be looking at sending off X and one of Barnes, Webster and DeRosa. Very similar to the package we sent for Beckett and Lowell (a top hitting SS who might not make it at that position along with one of a group of 3 young pitchers (Lester, Papelbon, Sanchez).
I still think we should do that deal. 23 year old under control for 3 more seasons? You'd be able to buy out those last 3 and ink him to a long term affordable AAV contract for 7 years, keeping the financial flexibility and stocking up on youth.

[BobbyVsToiletSeat]

As much as I would hate to give up Xander, this would be one of the few exceptions. Stanton's only 3 years older and already is an elite player. He hasn't even hit his arbitration years so it would take a ton to get him since every team in the league would be interested.

No way! 6 cost control years of a potential franchise player? These are the types or trades that do not end well!

[Trotsky]

No way! 6 cost control years of a potential franchise player? These are the types or trades that do not end well!

You realize we'd be getting 3 years of a cost controlled franchise player? No "potential" there in front of "franchise player". Stanton is someone you DO... absolutely DO trade away a potential franchise player for. We did that in '06 and brought back a WS a year later. Worth it.

Although I don't get the love on the main board for Logan Morrison. The guy is the actual wikipedia entry of meh.

[alwyn96]

What will it take?

About 4 years or so, that's what.

He did deal an arguably better Miguel Cabrera with 2 years left, so you never know. Hanley was on the Marlins at that time though, so they had at least one superstar left to placate the fanbase. I imagine if they traded Stanton this offseason without any other star replacements, there might be actual political consequences. The city of Miami is pretty pissed.

Edited by alwyn96, 15 November 2012 - 10:37 PM.

[doubrontsneighbor]

Since it's unlikely that Miami lets Stanton go, I would love to see Ben make calls on Kendry Morales, and Billy Butler. I know its a pipe dream, but a trade for Butler and Gordon would solve two huge needs. I would likely require Major League talents, since KC's system is already deep, but worth the call anyways to see what it would take.