25 replies to this topic

[koufax32]

Most of Jacksonville has come to realize that the Jaguars will be making a serious run at the #1 pick this year instead of running off several key victories. KC seems to already to moving on as well with the willingness to move past pick #34. Key in many of these races is the tiebreakers of which JAX has already "won" over OAK should it come down to it. Jacksonville truly is terrible but the schedule going forward includes one against IND at home and two games vs. TEN. And there's no way Newton and CAR continue to lose at this rate =, right? My money will be on KC the rest of the way.

Who will win it all this year? As I read somewhere, who will go "S^*tty for Smitty?"



http://espn.go.com/n...dings/_/group/1





EDIT: trying to post standings...that was an amazing display of epic fail

Edited by koufax32, 29 October 2012 - 07:48 PM.

[collings94]

It's looking like the Jags. Out of all of the other teams, Jacksonville has the least talent. Really, after MJD, (whos on the mend) name the five best players on Jacksonville.

[Gunfighter 09]

I dont think head to head is a tie breaker for draft position purposes. I think it is record followed by strength of schedule.

Tiebreakers

• Strength of schedule for the previous season is the first tie-breaker for teams with the same winning percentage. The team with the lowest strength of schedule percentage wins the tiebreaker and picks ahead of all other teams with the same record.
• Divisional and conference records are the next step in the tie-breaking procedure.

• As a last resort, a coin toss is used to determine the order of selection for teams with the same winning percentage

http://football.abou...tdraftorder.htm

[Gunfighter 09]

Having watched my team scrape by both Jax and KC in the last two weeks, the Chefs certainly have more talent, but the Jags rate much higher on the coaching competence / player give a shit scale, which I think is more important when it comes to getting the first pick. I think the poisonous / stupid environment that Pioli has created in KC is much more likely to produce blatant quitting and lack of effort in November & December, which is what you need to lock up the # 1 pick.

[pdaj]

KC O-coordinator, Brian Daboll, elected to hand the ball of to their biggest offensive weapon, Jamaal Charles, only 5 times yesterday. When Crennell was initially asked why, he said, "I don't know why", or something largely similar. Um, I'm going with the Chiefs. In fact, I think KC might actually be self-sabatoging their season in order to get the #1 overall.

[Jungleland]

Jacksonville has potentially one of the worst rosters in NFL history, but the Chiefs are historic levels of incompetent. The real question is whether any player this year warrants a number one pick. Has to suck watching Luck, RG3, and Richardson go a year before you truly scrape the bottom of the barrel. Matt Barkley ain't turning this Jags team around.

[dbn]

Classic "circle it on your calendar" games in weeks 13 and 14 for KC. With losses to Carolina and Cleveland, they could really set themselves up well.

There are some good arguments for KC that have been posted, but my heart tells me that, with the first pick in the 2013 NFL draft, Jacksonville selects Matt Barkley, quarterback, USC.

[wutang112878]

KC O-coordinator, Brian Daboll, elected to hand the ball of to their biggest offensive weapon, Jamaal Charles, only 5 times yesterday. When Crennell was initially asked why, he said, "I don't know why", or something largely similar. Um, I'm going with the Chiefs. In fact, I think KC might actually be self-sabatoging their season in order to get the #1 overall.

KC is a mess, but I dont think they are trying to fail simply because I am sure that both Romeo and Pioli realize that if they get the #1 pick they wont be around when that pick is made.


My vote is Jax getting the #1 pick. There is just not a lot of talent on the team, and it doesnt look like they are building at the moment it seems they are still crumbling.

[Oppo]

Chiefs (1-6):
Lost close: Balt, Oak
Lost big: Atl, @Buf, SD, @TB
Won: @NO
Net points: -89
Remaining: @SD, @Pit, Cin, Den, Car, @Cle, @Oak, Indy, @Den
Analysis: Generally not competitive, QB problems, do not utilize Charles, largest total point deficit. Key games remaining are Cin, Car, @Cle, @Oak, Indy. I think they pull out 2, finishing 3-13.

Jags (1-6):
Lost close: @Min, @GB, @Oak
Lost big: Hou, Cin, Chi
Won: @Indy
Net points: -85
Remaining: Indy, @Hou, Ten, @Buf, NYJ, @Mia, NE, @Ten
Analysis: Play tough on the road against decent teams, do not show up at home, MJD hurt, awful QB, 2nd largest total point deficit. Key games remaining are Indy, Ten, @Buf, @Ten. I think they win 1, finishing 2-14.

Panthers (1-6):
Lost close: @Chi, Dal, Sea, @Atl, @TB
Lost big: NYG
Won: NO
Net points: -39
Remaining: Den, TB, @Phi, Atl, @SD, Oak, @NO
Analysis: Tough schedule so far, close games against good teams, only big loss to NYG. Can Cam find his form, who will get fired next? Tough schedule remaining, with key games against TB, Oak, @NO. As they have competed with goods teams, I think they get 2 more wins, finishing 3-13.

Browns (2-6):
Lost close: Phi, @Cin, Buf, @Balt, @Indy
Lost big: @NYG
Won: Cin, SD
Net points: -32
Remaining: @Dal, Pit, @Oak, KC, Was, @Den, @Pit
Analysis: Competitive in all games, minus the NYG blowout. Tough schedule remaining, with the key games being @Oak, KC, Was. They win 2 of those 3, finishing 4-12.


Most of the analysis was my random thoughts. I defined a close loss as 10 or fewer points (arbitrary, but the alternative was looking up the details of every game played).
That leaves my final standings as:
Jags 2-14
Chiefs 3-13
Panthers 3-13
Browns 4-12

If it were purely who the worst team was, I'd go Chiefs over Jags, but the Chiefs have an easier remaining schedule IMO

Edited by Oppo, 30 October 2012 - 10:09 AM.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

There are some good arguments for KC that have been posted, but my heart tells me that, with the first pick in the 2013 NFL draft, Jacksonville selects Matt Barkley, quarterback, USC.

I think you mean Geno Smith, quarterback, West Virginia. I can see Barkley having a Leinart-like tumble in this draft. A lot of people have both Smith and Tyler Wilson from Arkansas ahead of him.

I agree with Jungleland's point though. None of these guys are near the Luck/RGIII class.

[tims4wins]

Maybe the Jets will trade up and take Barkley

[Oppo]

Still a 4 team race (Raiders, Eagles, Rams with 3 wins)

Jags (1-9): Ten, @Buf, NYJ, @Mia, NE, @Ten
Chiefs (1-9): Den, Car, @Cle, @Oak, Indy, @Den
Panthers (2-8): @Phi, Atl, @SD, Oak, @NO
Browns (2-8): @Oak, KC, Was, @Den, @Pit

[Tony C]

Maybe the Jets will trade up and take Barkley

With Barkley's falling stock, they may not have to. Actually, QBs always rise (and justifiably so -- how does Kiper justify how low he ranks QBs?), so they probably still would have to trade up even if Barkley's in the 20s on the boards out right now. Agree with the Jets upcoming schedule they're like to win at 3 games and more likely 4 so will end up 8-8 give or take, and right in the middle of the 1st round. That'll be just enough to raise false hopes for next year and lower their draft position...so can't really complain. In re Barkley, I'm guessing he still goes in the top 10 or even top 5 when all is said and done.

[Shelterdog]

With Barkley's falling stock, they may not have to. Actually, QBs always rise (and justifiably so -- how does Kiper justify how low he ranks QBs?), so they probably still would have to trade up even if Barkley's in the 20s on the boards out right now. Agree with the Jets upcoming schedule they're like to win at 3 games and more likely 4 so will end up 8-8 give or take, and right in the middle of the 1st round. That'll be just enough to raise false hopes for next year and lower their draft position...so can't really complain. In re Barkley, I'm guessing he still goes in the top 10 or even top 5 when all is said and done.

Barkley is a noodle armed unathletic 6'1" guy who plays poorly in big games. Watch him drop to the second.

[rodderick]

Maybe the Jets will trade up and take Barkley

I think Matt Barkley is in for a Jimmy Clausen-style slide into the 2nd round. It wouldn't surprise me if Mike Glennon is picked before he is.

[abty]

Chiefs are securing that pick. No way they win more than 2 games. I would have given anything to see them and the Jags face off in week 17.

[axx]

Jags won so the Chiefs are the only 10 loss team.

I don't think you can justify taking Geno #1. He's just not that good. This looks like to be a very bad QB draft class.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I don't think you can justify taking Geno #1. He's just not that good. This looks like to be a very bad QB draft class.

Its not a very good "elite talent" draft class at all. I agree, however, that taking a QB #1 by default is probably a really bad idea in this draft. Unfortunately, the best non-QB prospect - Jarvis Jones - is also difficult to take at #1 given his spinal stenosis.

Assuming that trading down is not an option, the smart move is probably to accept that you got a little unlucky picking at the top this particular year and then take a guy who is just a very solid bet to be a very good player at an important position, like Star Lotulelei or Luke Joeckel.*

*If KC is picking first, Lotulelei may not be an option given that they have picked Dontari Poe, Tyson Jackson, and Glenn Dorsey in the last five drafts.

Edited by Morgan's Magic Snowplow, 26 November 2012 - 11:19 PM.

[dbn]

A little off-topic, but McShay and Kiper had these interesting tibdits about how good the 2012 draft class was.

The 2012 NFL draft already has had a major impact on the league. Consider:
• Each of the first 11 picks have started in every possible game so far.
• Thirty of 32 first-rounders have seen significant time, and it would be 31 if Pittsburgh'sDavid DeCastro hadn't gotten hurt during preseason.
• Five of the first six quarterbacks drafted have started in every game, seven rookie quarterbacks started this week and three of them -- Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson -- could be considered for the Pro Bowl.
• Rookies might lead the NFL or come in second in tackles (Luke Kuechly), rushing (Doug Martin) and interceptions (Casey Hayward).
And that's just the starting point. We've seen a major impact from well down the draft board. Round 2 has already minted a number of impact starters, with more on the way.

Which is the only 1st rounder not to see significant time? Coples?

[edit: probably Dre Kirkpatrick]

[2nd edit, A.J. Jenkins hasn't seen the field so far. Kirkpatrick has played 42 snaps on D, 56 on ST. ]

Edited by dbn, 28 November 2012 - 02:32 PM.

[Mystic Merlin]

WR A.J. Jenkins, the Niners' first rounder, has not dressed for a game this year.

[Super Nomario]

A little off-topic, but McShay and Kiper had these interesting tibdits about how good the 2012 draft class was.



Which is the only 1st rounder not to see significant time? Coples?

49ers receiver A.J. Jenkins hasn't seen the field this year.

EDIT: damn, MM too fast.

Edited by Super Nomario, 28 November 2012 - 02:17 PM.

[Mystic Merlin]

That's what your mom....well, you know.

[Oppo]

Chiefs 2-11 (@Oak, Indy, @Den)
Jags 2-11 (@Mia, NE, @Ten)
Raiders 3-10 (KC, @Car, @SD)

[grsharky7]

Jags won so the Chiefs are the only 10 loss team.

I don't think you can justify taking Geno #1. He's just not that good. This looks like to be a very bad QB draft class.

I completely agree, and I'm an unabashed Geno lover. I understood the hype around him early in the year when WVU got off to their fast start (5-0). In his first five game this year he threw for 1996 yards and 20 TD and 0 INT. However, the next five games he threw for 1365 yds, 11 TD, and 5 INT. The numbers aren't bad in the second stretch, but teams seemed to figure Geno out. Teams started bringing more pressure, or they would take away the quick hitter routes from him. Get a little pressure and he became very nervous and would throw the ball into some bad spots. He had at least five balls that were sure fire interceptions dropped during this stretch.

I've watched every game Geno Smith has played in his career, and have watched him in person over 20 times. While he is talented, I don't know if he will translate well to the NFL. He has a good arm, but he has a hard time putting the ball in small windows. While he can move around when under pressure he doesn't make good decisions when he gets rattled, and if you think Brady ducks a lot wail until you see Geno. I also think he was somewhat of a product of the air raid offense. Hopefully he can go somewhere where he can learn for a while and then get his feet wet gradually. I would love for him to do well in the NFL, I just don't think he is worth a first round pick.

[Dehere]

I think Matt Barkley is in for a Jimmy Clausen-style slide into the 2nd round. It wouldn't surprise me if Mike Glennon is picked before he is.

Agree with this. I think Barkley's decision to come back for one more year of college ball is one of the worst such choices ever.

[DaughtersofDougMirabelli]

And then there were two.

Chiefs 2-13 @ Broncos, +16
Jaguars 2-13 @ Tennessee, +4

*Chiefs hold the tiebreaker with the strength of schedule already locked up.
SoS Chiefs 122-118 (.508) Worst they could end up: 132-128 (.528)
SoS Jags 129-111 (.538) Best they could end up: 137-119 (.535)

Chiefs #1 Pick
If the Chiefs lose

Jags #1 Pick
If the Jags lose and Chiefs win