23 replies to this topic

[Cuzittt]

Today's Games:

IL: Pawtucket (Brett Evert) vs. Syracuse (Josh Banks) [1:05pm]
EL: Portland (http://www.sonsofsam...ok/external.png) center right no-repeat; padding-right: 13px; border-bottom: 1px dotted #3366BB; color: #3366BB; cursor:pointer; text-decoration:none;" class="wiki">Tommy Hottovy) @ Akron (Aaron Laffey) [2:05pm]
CL: Wilmington - OFF
SAL: Greenville (http://www.sonsofsam...ok/external.png) center right no-repeat; padding-right: 13px; border-bottom: 1px dotted #3366BB; color: #3366BB; cursor:pointer; text-decoration:none;" class="wiki">Ryan Phillips) vs. Hagerstown (Deolis Guerra) [5:05pm]
NYPL: Lowell (http://www.sonsofsam...ok/external.png) center right no-repeat; padding-right: 13px; border-bottom: 1px dotted #3366BB; color: #3366BB; cursor:pointer; text-decoration:none;" class="wiki">Brian Steinocher) @ Staten Island [4:05pm]
GCL: http://www.sonsofsam...ok/external.png) center right no-repeat; padding-right: 13px; border-bottom: 1px dotted #3366BB; color: #3366BB; cursor:pointer; text-decoration:none;" class="wiki">GCL Red Sox - OFF
DSL: http://www.sonsofsam...ok/external.png) center right no-repeat; padding-right: 13px; border-bottom: 1px dotted #3366BB; color: #3366BB; cursor:pointer; text-decoration:none;" class="wiki">DSL Red Sox - OFF

Notes: Brett Evert signed with the Sox on Friday. Never a good sign when the team he is playing for doesn't get your name correct. Pawsox.com has the starter as Brad Evert.

-Brandon

[Lose Remerswaal]

I should have a full report on Mr. Evert this evening

[amfox1]

Pawtucket:

Murphy is not in the lineup for the second straight day. No word on an injury. Pedroia is playing 3B, Machado is the SS. Harris is the 2B. Concepcion is the C. Durrington is playing LF. Assuming Murphy is unavailable, this means the only bench player is new draftee Ryan Khoury. Can't wait to see what happens if Stern is not claimed by TB and goes to Baltimore tomorrow.

Ahhh, the dog days of summer.

[SoxScout]

Full Prospects Stats Update

Post-promotion troubles...

Bates: 226/293/302
Engel: 248/265/328
Arambarris: 213/283/298

Jackson: 1.90 WHIP, 8.1 BB/9

[SoxScout]

PawSox are getting smoked 5-0.

Evert gives up all the runs in 4.1IP, 2 homers, 3/3 K/BB.

[Cha Cha the first DH]

Should we be concerned that Murphy has not played in the last couple of days without word of an injury while Stern and Machado have played? Is it possible that he is being held out of the lineup becaue he is headed to Baltimore?

[Cuzittt]

Pawsox lose to Syracuse, 12-2.

Brett Evert went the first 4 1/3 innings, giving up 5 hits (2 HRs), 3 walks and 5 runs, striking out 3. Tim Bausher went the next 1 2/3+ innings, giving up 2 hits and 2 walks, allowing 4 runs (3 earned) while striking out 2. Barry Hertzler went the next 2 innings, giving up 3 hits, a walk and a WP, allowing an unearned run while striking out 4. Javier Lopez went the final inning, giving up 3 hits (1 HR) and 2 runs, striking out 2.

Dustin Pedroia, Ron Calloway, Tyler Minges, and Willie Harris each went 2/4; Pedroia and Minges with doubles. Alejandro Machado went 1/4 with a double. Trent Durrington went 1/5 with a double. Jeff Bailey went 0/3 with a walk. Alberto Concepcion and Adam Stern each went 0/4; Stern with 4 Ks. Ryan Khoury went 0/1 as a 9th inning Pinch Hitter.

Boxscore

-Brandon

[amfox1]

Portland:

Good news:

Ellsbury is 2/4
EMart has two scoreless innings

*crickets chirping*

The reality:

Another poor outing by Hottovy.

Sea Dogs lose their 9th straight - 6-2

Edited by amfox1, 06 August 2006 - 04:08 PM.

[amfox1]

Lowell:

Climb on the ManAram express. Arambarris hits his first NYPL home run. In fact, it's his first US pro home run. He's 2/2 today.

12/49, 19TB, 6/3 K/BB, 2HBP, SF (17/55 OBP)
.245/.309/.388/.697

Steinocher is pitching well. Final line: 4.2IP, 0H, 1R, 0ER, 2BB, 1K (run scored - BB, SB, Balk, ROE)

Lowell leads 3-1, end 5th

Edited by amfox1, 06 August 2006 - 04:45 PM.

[Lose Remerswaal]

The Brett Evert story:

He's happy to be out of the heat of Nashville, but it didn't show after the first two (hitless) innings. He's got a bunch of arm slots for his "fast" ball, if you can call it that, as it honed in around 84-85 mph. Every now and then he reached back for an 87 mph hummer, and even one that hit 89, but none of those faster balls was in the strike zone. He's got a good curveball that ranged from 69 to 74 mph that he could throw for strikes and fool AAA hitters with, even threw it behind in the count effectively, but without anything to set it up you get a line like today.

Bausher looked very good for 4 batters, then started giving up line shots all over the place. And Lopez's outing makes the chances of seeing Javy Lopez pitch to Javy Lopez shrink even more I'm afraid.

Khoury pinch hit for Stern in the 9th, so Adam couldn't K 5 times (I saw Adam before the game and told him there's a strong Jewish community in Baltimore and he laughed). Khoury looked like a 9 year old in the batting helmet.

Banks wasn't all that effective for Syracuse, but Pawtucket couldn't get hits with runners in scoring position (sound familiar?) Jason Fraser was throwing heat, but without much effect.

Lydon stole 4 bases (2B x 3, 3B x 1), and none of them were close. Evert couldn't keep him close, and Concepcion double clutched on one throw where he might have had a chance.

Edit: Oh, and Willie Harris has a "lucky ball" that Machado threw into the crowd before the game and had to get back for Willie (traded for another ball).

Willie, you're hitting under .200. Where the hell would you be if you didn't have a lucky ball? Maybe it's an UNLUCKY Ball? Give it up, Willie, give it up.

Edited by Lose Remerswaal, 06 August 2006 - 04:38 PM.

[amfox1]

Greenville:

Ryan Phillips pitched a beauty of a game.

6IP, 4H, 0R, 9/1 K/BB

YTD: 55.1IP, 41H, 59/29 K/BB, 2HRA, 2.60ERA

The guy for Hagerstown may have a more impressive line - 5.2IP, 5H, 1R, 11/2 K/BB

Fernandes gives up a solo home run in the top of the 8th

Tied 1-1, mid 8th

Edited by amfox1, 06 August 2006 - 06:51 PM.

[templeUsox]

Greenville:

Ryan Phillips is pitching a beauty of a game.

6IP, 4H, 0R, 9/1 K/BB

The guy for Hagerstown may have a more impressive line - 5IP, 3H, 1R, 11/1 K/BB

Drive leads 1-0, mid 6th

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

"The guy" is 17-year old Venezuelan Deolis Guerra. He was the highest paid international picher last year; receiving a 700K signing bonus. He should be a high school junior right now. Pretty impressive.

[amfox1]

Greenville rotation:

Buchholz - 93.0IP, 73H, 106/28 K/BB, 9HRA, .217BAA, 1.09WHIP, 2.81ERA
Bowden.. - 97.0IP, 84H, 111/27 K/BB, 9HRA, .227BAA, 1.14WHIP, 3.43ERA
Phillips... - 55.1IP, 41H,.. 59/29 K/BB, 2HRA, .200BAA, 1.27WHIP, 2.60ERA
C.Jones.. - 69.2IP, 58H,.. 62/25 K/BB, 4HRA, .222BAA, 1.19WHIP, 3.10ERA

Bodes well for the future. The top 2 should be in the top 5 prospects at the end of the year, and Phillips and Jones will be in the 15-25 range. All should be in Wilmington next year.

EDIT: fixed typo

Edited by amfox1, 06 August 2006 - 09:57 PM.

[RoDaddy]

Good point. One minor correction - I believe you switched Buchholz's and Bowden's ERAs.

[Rudy Pemberton]

What is the league ERA? Are the ERA's for the Greenville pitchers low for the league?

[Crazy Puppy]

What is the league ERA? Are the ERA's for the Greenville pitchers low for the league?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The Sally League ERA is 3.89. Greenville's team ERA is 3.43 (2nd-best).

Also, Greenville's home park was a slight hitter's park (park factor of 1.07 for runs scored) from 2003-2005, using a weighted three-year average. Park Factors

[Cuzittt]

Portland loses again... 6-2.

Tommy Hottovy went 4 innings, giving up 6 hits, 6 walks and a WP, alllowing 5 runs (4 earned) while striking out 2. Kyle Jackson went the next 2 innings, giving up 2 hits, 2 walks and a run, striking out 2. Edgar Martinez went the final 2 innings, giving up a hit and striking out one.

Matt Van der Bosch went 2/3. Jacoby Ellsbury went 2/4 with a CS. David Bacani, Jeremy West and Zach Borowiak each went 1/3; Bacani with a walk and was picked off, West with a double. Chris Durbin went 0/2 with a SF. Iggy Suarez went 0/3. Dusty Brown and Brandon Moss each went 0/4.

Boxscore

-Brandon

[Cuzittt]

Greenville loses to Hagerstown, 3-1.

Ryan Phillips went the first 6 innings, giving up 4 hits and a walk, striking out 9. Kyle Fernandes went the next 1 2/3rd innings, giving up 3 hits (1 HR) and a run, striking out 2. Blake Maxwell went the final 1 1/3 innings, giving up 3 hits and 2 runs.

Mark Wagner went 2/3 with a HBP. Tony Granadillo went 1/3 with a double and a Sacrifice. Christian Lara went 1/3 with a double, a walk and 2 SBs. Dominic Ramos went 1/4 with a double and a walk. Yahmed Yema and Aaron Bates each went 0/3 with a walk. Chris Turner and Luis Soto each went 0/4. Mickey Hall went 0/5 with 4 Ks.

Boxscore

-Brandon

[Cuzittt]

Lowell defeats Staten Island, 9-6.

Brain Steinocher went the first 4 2/3 innings, giving up 2 walks, a Balk and a run, striking out one. Felix Ventura struck out the final batter of the 5th. Dustin Richardson went the next 2 1/3 innings, giving up 2 hits, 3 walks and a HBP, allowing 2 runs while striking out 4. TJ Large pitched the final 1 2/3 innings, giving up 3 hits, a walk and a HBP, allowing 3 runs (1 earned) while striking out one.

Luis Segovia went 3/4 with a walk. Jeff Vincent went 3/5 with a walk and a SB. Mike Chambers went 2/3 with a HR, walk and HBP. Jorge Jimenez and Manny Arambarris each went 2/4; Manny with his 1st HR of the year and a walk, Jimenez with a HBP. Paul Smyth and Zach Daeges each went 1/5; Daeges with a walk, Smyth with a HBP. Jon Still went 1/6 with a double. Reid Engel went 0/5.

Boxscore

-Brandon

[amfox1]

What is the league ERA? Are the ERA's for the Greenville pitchers low for the league?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think ERA is an overrated stat at this level of development.

The two stats I find most meaningful are BAA and K-rate. However, they must work in tandem.

A guy with a high K-rate but a high BAA (.240-.260 seems about average to me) may be a guy with decent stuff but not a lot of refinement or a guy who throw hard but straight. He might fix his issues or, more likely, be a guy that will continue to get hit at higher levels and will not strike out as many people. A guy with a mediocre K-rate but a low BAA probably doesn't have the stuff to survive at higher levels.

In looking at the big 4 in Greenville, all have K/rates above 9, except Jones. All have BAAs below .230, with Buchholz below .220 and Phillips at .200 (which is moving into dominant category).

Bowden.. - 10.3 K/9, 4.1 K/BB, .227BAA (Age 19.11)
Buchholz - 10.3 K/9, 3.8 K/BB, .217BAA (Age 22.0)
Phillips..... - 9.6 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, .200BAA (Age 22.2)
C.Jones... - 8.0 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, .222BAA (Age 22.2)

I would rate them in the order listed.

FYI:
Lester (Age 19.7) in low-A did not have stats close to any of these four. In fact, his stats were closer to the 5th member of this group, Michael Rozier (which is the saving grace with Rozier, that he might next year have a year like Lester's age 20 year in high A). So, the obvious key is how these prospects carry their 2006 success into 2007.

Here are the gold standards for high-A ball for them.

Lester...... - 9.6 K/9, 2.6 K/BB, .???BAA* (Age 20.7)
Papelbon - 10.6 K/9, 3.6 K/BB, .???BAA** (Age 23.8)

* My back-of-the-envelope calculation is .242. Someone may actually have the true number.
** My back-of-the-envelope calculation is .207. Someone may actually have the true number.

Edited by amfox1, 06 August 2006 - 10:40 PM.

[amfox1]

Just to tie a bow on this, here are other selected prospects in the system and their BAA and K-rates:

GCL:

Felix Doubront - 6.2 K/9, .185BAA
Jose Capellan - 9.3 K/9, .190BAA

Lowell:

Justin Masterson - 11.6 K/9, .133BAA
Josh Papelbon... - 10.1 K/9, .194BAA
Kris Johnson....... - 8.2 K/9, .210BAA

Greenville:

See above

Wilmington:

Matt Goodson - 6.4 K/9, .216BAA

Portland:

Kason Gabbard - 8.3 K/9, .192BAA
Edgar Martinez - 8.2 K/9, .222BAA

Pawtucket:

Jon Lester - 8.3 K/9, .240BAA

In other words, there's not a lot to look forward to, pitching-wise, above low-A ball. But you already knew that probably.

Edited by amfox1, 06 August 2006 - 10:59 PM.

[SoxScout]

Here is a bunch of news from the new PawSox Notebook:

David Murphy (.277, 19 doubles, 7 triples, 7 home runs, 38 RBI), who is 0-for-9 in his last nine at-bats, sat out of the PawSox last two games for precautionary reasons with a sore back. Murphy is tied for fifth in the I.L. with five triples.

With a double to lead off the bottom of the third inning, Pawtucket infielder Alejandro Machado  has now hit safely in 14 of his last 18 games, batting .351 (20-for-57) with two doubles, two triples, and six RBI.

Pawtucket pitchers Dave Pauley  (1-3, 5.54 E.R.A.) and Phil Seibel (2-0, 1.50 E.R.A.) are both going to Florida for rehab treatment. Pauley has had pain in his forearm, while Seibel, recovering from Tommy John's surgery, felt tightness in his elbow and left the PawSox game on Saturday after facing only three batters in Pawtucket's 3-0 loss to Syracuse.

[Cuzittt]

Pawtucket Stories:

Game Story

Despite needing to make up some ground on first-place Scranton-Wilkes Barre, Pawtucket dropped its first series in nearly a month yesterday, falling 12-2 to Syracuse and losing the series, 3-2.

But the PawSox still remain 6 1/2 games behind the Red Barons because Scranton lost, 7-3, to Ottawa.

Pawtucket's bats were hot in July when the PawSox hit .280 as a team, but the SkyChiefs' pitchers cooled them off. Pawtucket only managed 15 runs in the five games.

Syracuse outscored Pawtucket, 8-15, in the series.

"It was just one of those days where we just didn't play real well," Pawtucket manager Ron Johnson said. "It's not like we went out and did a lot of things bad, they got after us offensively and then we scratched for a couple late. It's one of those scenarios where, in the games that we won [in this series], 5-0, 5-1, it was there for us, but not today."

Choi's Mission

His Los Angeles Dodgers equipment bags remain packed and next to his corner locker in the cozy confines of the Pawtucket Red Sox clubhouse.

The Boston Red Sox claimed first baseman Hee-Seop Choi off waivers from the Dodgers on March 24, but he hasn't made it to the bigs. At the start of the year there were questions regarding who would be the everyday first baseman in Boston, and obviously Kevin Youkilis has answered that in a big way, switching corner positions successfully.

During spring training, Boston general manager Theo Epstein told the Journal: "We have liked Choi for a long time and view this as an opportunity to acquire him when his value is down a bit. We like his power, his patience and his hands at first base. Choi provides depth for us at first base and, in a way, third base as well, considering Kevin Youkilis' ability to play both positions."

So, where has this $725,000 security blanket been?

Hurt.

Even before he went on the disabled list July 7 with a knee sprain, Choi wasn't having a season deserving of a call-up. Realistically, if he was healthy, it wouldn't really matter what numbers he was putting up. The fact is he would be in Boston right now because of all the injuries.

One thing for sure, David Ortiz wouldn't have played first base on Friday. Choi may not be the solution to the Red Sox' problems, but he could be an answer.

Pawsox Notebook

In his PawSox debut, Brett Evert  , 25, looked sharp early, but struggled in the third and fifth innings in Pawtucket's 12-2 loss to Syracuse yesterday.

"I thought Evert battled his butt off," Pawtucket manager Ron Johnson said.

Evert was signed by the Red Sox on Thursday after being released by the Milwaukee Brewers (Huntsville Double A) on July 15 and became the 29th new PawSox player to appear for the club after Opening Day.

Seadogs Stories:

Game Story

The Portland Sea Dogs are relieved to be heading home. The Sea Dogs completed a disastrous 10-game trip Sunday with a 6-2 loss against the Akron Aeros before 5,755 fans at Canal Park.

Portland arrives back in town today shouldering a burdensome nine-game losing streak, one less than the franchise record.

That's a distinction the Sea Dogs hope to avoid matching Tuesday when they play host to the Harrisburg Senators in the opener of a nine-game homestand.

"It's just been a rough stretch," said second baseman David Bacani. "We've been playing hard. You can't question our effort. But there's things in the game that happen."

Drive Stories:

Game Story

A new team entered West End Field Sunday afternoon.

But, for the Greenville Drive, the results remained the same.

The Hagerstown Sun scored three runs in the final two innings to claim a 3-1 come-from-behind victory over the Drive in front of 4,019.

The Drive, who at one point led the South Atlantic League Southern Division, have lost nine of their last 10 games -- including four losses in five games during the home stand.

Greenville's downfall patch has been a lack of offense. The Drive have managed only three runs in their last three games.

"We can't put three hits together right now," said Drive manager Luis Alicea. "It's really tough to win when you can't get enough guys on base."

Spinners Stories:

Game Story

-Brandon

[Rudy Pemberton]

But what is the normal K rate for that league?