316 replies to this topic

[Wingack]

I will be surprised if the Yankees don't end up signing Pierzynski. I just don't buy the fact that they're going to run out a $200M team with those scrubs starting at C every night.

Totally agree.

[jon abbey]

OK, so Youkilis is on board and Ichiro seems to be close from reports, so where do we stand?

C-two of Stewart, Romine, Cervelli
1B-Tex
2B-Cano
SS-Jeter, Nunez
3B-Youkilis, A-Rod (mid-season sometime)
LF-Ichiro
CF-Gardner
RF-Granderson (this is a guess from me that NY will move Gardner to CF, Ichiro/Granderson could also flip LF/RF, not sure)
DH-????

Ibanez may still be added for DH ABs, they need another RHH too, but they're not in such bad shape right now, I don't think.

[Wingack]

Well, once ARod returns, either he or Youk can be the permenant DH.

[steveluck7]

So now we have a pretty good idea of what the 2013 team will look like, I have a question on 2014. With the seeming serious desire to be under the $189 million threshold in '14, they have gone the route of signing a lot of 1 year deals.
They are setting themselves up to have to do A LOT of work next fall / winter. Not only will they have to keep their eyes on the bottom line, they'll have to fill a lot of holes, mighty difficult to juggle.

[jon abbey]

So now we have a pretty good idea of what the 2013 team will look like, I have a question on 2014. With the seeming serious desire to be under the $189 million threshold in '14, they have gone the route of signing a lot of 1 year deals.
They are setting themselves up to have to do A LOT of work next fall / winter. Not only will they have to keep their eyes on the bottom line, they'll have to fill a lot of holes, mighty difficult to juggle.

I think they're going to try to play as many kids as they can, even if it's a year too early for most of them. It's a long way away still, but I will be very surprised if they end up over .500 in 2014, especially if they don't pay Boras' bloated price on Cano. They will try to reload big after the 2014 season ends, though, at least that is my educated guess.

[Edelpeddle]

On the flipside, Nova was terrible all year (he was the #2 starter the year before) and they got nothing from Pineda and will hopefully have him back for the second half this year, not to mention Pettitte only pitched for 1/3 of the season and Phelps is much more proven now. NY has plenty of issues, but I can't say I'm worried about the pitching staff.

What makes you think Nova will return to how he pitched in 2011?? He overachieved in 2011 according to FIP, xFIP and SIERA.

Best case scenario for Pineda is that he returns at the mid-point of the season. And considering he's coming off of shoulder issues, there's no guarantee he'll have his typical velocity. The Yankees are smart not to count on anything from him.

As for Pettitte, it's been a full three years since the last time he stayed healthy and was above league average and at age 41 he isn't getting any younger.

Plus, as I stated before, the Yankees will probably be dealing with a rotation of catchers between Cervelli, Romine, Stewart, Whiteside, etc in spring training and who knows if any of those players will be able to hold down the job for a full season.

I'm not expecting the Yankees pitching to implode, I would kill for someone like Sabathia at the top of the Red Sox rotation. I'm just expecting a reasonable degree of regression here.

[jon abbey]

Whiteside is gone (claimed off waivers by TOR) and the other three have all spent some time in NY before, so I don't know how much the catcher point matters, except maybe with Kuroda who seemed very comfortable with his long-term catcher Martin.

As for the rest, I think you could go through any pitching staff and find possible issues, but again, I think there are as many upside possibilities in the NY rotation as there are downside ones. For instance, CC and Pettitte combined for only 40 starts last year, so a combined 50 or 60 from them would almost certainly be an upgrade. Kuroda I agree will likely not be as good, but I think he's the only one. Hughes will be a FA after 2013 and will be pitching for a big deal elsewhere, Nova won't be as good as 2011 but shouldn't be as bad as 2012, and he may not even be in the rotation if Phelps beats him out.

[Meff Nelton]

I think they're going to try to play as many kids as they can, even if it's a year too early for most of them. It's a long way away still, but I will be very surprised if they end up over .500 in 2014, especially if they don't pay Boras' bloated price on Cano. They will try to reload big after the 2014 season ends, though, at least that is my educated guess.

The Yankees better hope they can eke out a World Series appearance next year, or else they're in for a world of hurt on the revenue side going into 2014. They did something telling in forcing plan holders to recommit in September for 2013, as opposed to the usual January invoice. I can only imagine this was driven by diminishing sales. As an extra-special fuck you to their repeat customers, they followed this by opting out of MLB's new agreement with StubHub after raising prices on my seats by 2/3rds from 2010-2012. That place is going to be empty as hell next year, even if a good portion of those tickets are sold. Hell, after the better part of 20 years of ticket plans in my family, I can easily see myself walking away after this season. I understand fucking over your fans when there is more money out there to be had (even if I don't like it,) but doing so despite all best evidence that it is counterintuitive to your business model seems a little shortsighted. Combine that with already diminishing television ratings, and a team that looks primed for a couple of (relatively, of course) lean years, and you have a good recipe for testing just how well oiled your money machine really is.

I doubt they'll lose money in 2014, but despite their bullheaded fuckishness regarding ticket prices, I bet they drop going into 2015, and run hat-in-hand back to StubHub. Because if they struggle on the field beyond 2014 while still pissing on every baseball fan in the tri-state, they will start to lose money.

[jon abbey]

Yeah, that's exactly what I've been saying (coupled with a lot of first-hand knowledge from a ticket holder: thanks for that, Meff): this drive to get under $189M in 2014 is a huge gamble with their brand, and may end up hurting them financially if they don't pull it off (even including the massive luxury tax savings), not just on the field. It's an exceedingly risky strategy, and not one I'm in favor of, even as a fan who almost never attends games in person.

[Brickowski]

If no Ibanez, Jim Thome and Lance Berkman are both free agents.

[EvilEmpire]

I think any hit to the brand the team takes with the 2014 strategy will be short-lived given that (if successful and they get under) they will break the bank to get some of the talent available 2015 and beyond. Lots of risk of course -- they might not get under, the FAs they want in 2015 might not available, etc, etc. I hope they can pull it off and I won't be upset at a less talented team in 2014 if that is what it takes.

edit: I suck at posting from iPad

Edited by EvilEmpire, 12 December 2012 - 04:21 PM.

[crow216]

I think they're going to try to play as many kids as they can, even if it's a year too early for most of them. It's a long way away still, but I will be very surprised if they end up over .500 in 2014, especially if they don't pay Boras' bloated price on Cano. They will try to reload big after the 2014 season ends, though, at least that is my educated guess.

I think you're more right than I am here but I think there's an expectation that the Yankees won't have the ability to sign anyone come 2014 just to stay under 189. The outfield is where the problem areas will be and Cashman has done a fantastic job of picking up outfielders off the top of shit mountain to platoon and get good numbers out of. If they don't trade Hughes, Nova or Phelps...the rotation (in theory) is already capable of being filled out for 2014 barring injuries. I'd also hope that we have a hitter down below like Mason Williams ready to go.

[jon abbey]

Hughes is a FA after this year, so he will likely be out.

[brs3]

OK, so Youkilis is on board and Ichiro seems to be close from reports, so where do we stand?

C-two of Stewart, Romine, Cervelli
1B-Tex
2B-Cano
SS-Jeter, Nunez
3B-Youkilis, A-Rod (mid-season sometime)
LF-Ichiro
CF-Gardner
RF-Granderson (this is a guess from me that NY will move Gardner to CF, Ichiro/Granderson could also flip LF/RF, not sure)
DH-????

Ibanez may still be added for DH ABs, they need another RHH too, but they're not in such bad shape right now, I don't think.

I wonder if we'll see Youk playing musical chairs with Teixeira at DH/1B, with Nunez spelling Youk at 3rd when he's at first.

[jon abbey]

NY will likely add another utility infielder (Nix is in AAA, not on the 40 man roster but under NY control) because Cashman has said he wants to keep Nunez just at SS from now on (he reiterated this again recently). This of course makes it difficult to keep Nunez on the roster at all, since teams generally only carry 13 non-pitchers and it's hard to keep two guys who can only play SS (Jeter/Nunez).

[Snodgrass'Muff]

The pickup of Youkilis is probably worth 1-2 WAR over playing Nix every day. It's a nice pick up in that he's not an awful candidate for a bounce back year which would be a huge net gain. If they do land Ichiro they're probably not a bad bet for something near 25 WAR from the offense (both fangraphs and b-r). I have the Red Sox offense pegged at 19.5 fWAR and 13.4 rWAR before adjusting for players returning healthy or closer to career norms after an off year. I could see the Sox offense ending up at around 20 WAR without any significant additions.

[jon abbey]

Who do you have getting DH ABs for NY there? Ibanez is presumably still a possibility.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Yeah, definitely possible. There was a point where it was assumed they'd retain Chavez, too, though. If he's added to the roster, I'll update my guesses again. In the mean time, I imagine we'll see a revolving door at DH early on, especially for Jeter's sake to keep him fresh and minimize the strain he puts on that ankle early in the year, then once ARod comes back he'll probably DH more often than not and start at 3rd once or twice a week to give Youk or even Jeter a break (with Youk taking a seat on those days).

I would be very nervous about throwing ARod back out at third when he gets back. He may be able to steal a season or two more at the position before they are forced to DH him permanently, but I wouldn't want to test him out there right after he returns from the surgery.

[Brickowski]

Wew've been hearing about guys like Mason Williams and Gary Sanchez for years. There was all kinds of hype about the "killer B's" but one of them (Brackman) is already gone. At some point the farm system has to start producing, and if it doesn't, the Yankees should take a long look at how the system is being run. Instead of investing in free agents, maybe they ought to throw a pile of money at whomever is running the Tampa Bay player development program- Or Oakland's or even Baltimore's.

Edited by Brickowski, 12 December 2012 - 08:19 PM.

[jon abbey]

At some point the farm system has to start producing

Austin Jackson
Ian Kennedy
Melky Cabrera
Tyler Clippard
Jesus Montero
David Robertson
David Phelps

And I'm sure there are more, that's just the first batch to come to mind.

As for TB and BAL, guys like Price and Longoria and Dylan Bundy are top 5 picks. NY drafts at the bottom of the first round every year because they are good every year.

[Brickowski]

With some exceptions (Phelps, Robertson) they've traded away many of these players for higher priced veterans (e.g. Jackson for Granderson). Yes, they're handicapped by being good every year--but not in the DR.

Let me add Nova to your list. He had a crappy year in 2012 but he can pitch. Maybe the issue isn't the quality of the players who come up through the system, but patience.

Edited by Brickowski, 12 December 2012 - 09:05 PM.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

New York hasn't had any trouble developing players from within. They might want to start looking at holding onto those guys a little more often, but they definitely develop them. And they may not be affected by draft position in the international free agent market, but new rules will prevent them from throwing money around like they used to. Same goes for the Sox. There are spending caps everywhere but the Asian market at this point.

[jon abbey]

Maybe the issue isn't the quality of the players who come up through the system, but patience.

What issue? They just had the best record in the AL yet again and won their 12th division title in the last 15 years. When you're a contender virtually every year for 17 years, it's going to get ugly for at least a year or two at some point, especially when coupled with newly found fiscal restraint from the front office. We all thought this team would collapse five years ago, it's amazing they've held together this long.

They also had bad luck with prospects last year, Pineda and Banuelos and Campos are three incredible young arms who all basically missed the whole season with arm issues.

[crow216]

Brick, if you say that New York has had a tough time seeing their top prospects succeed in the majors, I'd agree. That doesn't change that they've done a really good job bringing up impact players that can play ball.

[Brickowski]

Yeah, I guess when you go down Jon's list they've produced some very good arms. I just hope than when Mason Williams is ready, they don't trade him for some expensive player who strikes out 200 times a year--not if they want to keep their payroll down.

Edited by Brickowski, 12 December 2012 - 09:37 PM.

[Edelpeddle]

What issue? They just had the best record in the AL yet again and won their 12th division title in the last 15 years. When you're a contender virtually every year for 17 years, it's going to get ugly for at least a year or two at some point, especially when coupled with newly found fiscal restraint from the front office. We all thought this team would collapse five years ago, it's amazing they've held together this long.

They also had bad luck with prospects last year, Pineda and Banuelos and Campos are three incredible young arms who all basically missed the whole season with arm issues.

What's been amazing about the Yankees "holding it together" for the last five years? They have the largest revenue stream in baseball and they've outspent every other team in baseball by $20-$70 million dollars per year. They went out and signed many of the best free agents on the market, re-signed many of their current players to bloated contracts/extensions and taken on traded away many of their prospects to acquire more expensive veterans. It would be amazing if they remained competitive under financial restraints, but they've yet to play a season under them. Simply outspending every other team isn't exactly an amazing or harrowing way to remain competitive. It's to be expected that they're competitive under those circumstances.

Edited by Edelpeddle, 13 December 2012 - 11:42 AM.

[jon abbey]

No one is comparing them to the Belichick Patriots, but if success was as easy as spending money, the Sox would have been a lot more successful in recent years (as one example). Anyway, I don't think we need to rehash the entire last decade in detail here just because you're a new member, but there's a lot more nuance involved than your post contains. No one is comparing them to OAK or BAL or TB.

And for the record, unless I'm forgetting someone, the only semi-big FA signing NY has made in the last four offseasons (including this one) is the Rafael Soriano one (and even that Cashman was very much publicly against, FWIW).

But let's try to stick to 2013 in this thread. If you want to talk about something else that we haven't covered in detail before, please feel free to start a new thread, thanks.

[jon abbey]

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN

As Ichiro signs with the Yankees, he'll be turning down a two-year, $14 million offer from the Phillies.

[soxhop411]

RT @JonHeymanCBS: ichiro, yankees deal will be for between $12-13M, still working on structure.

[jon abbey]

Whoa, that can't just be for one year. Ichiro and his quest for 3000 hits (he is at 2606) is maybe a good way to sell tickets in 2014, but it really doesn't seem like a good baseball move.

Meanwhile, NY continues to stockpile scrub catchers, picking up Bobby Wilson of the Angels on a minor league deal.

[derekson]

Whoa, that can't just be for one year. Ichiro and his quest for 3000 hits (he is at 2606) is maybe a good way to sell tickets in 2014, but it really doesn't seem like a good baseball move.

Meanwhile, NY continues to stockpile scrub catchers, picking up Bobby Wilson of the Angels on a minor league deal.

Word is that the Phillies offered something like $14M over two years, forcing the Yankees to offer a second year.

[jon abbey]

Pretty hard to argue Ichiro over Russell Martin from a baseball perspective, why didn't they go to two years for Martin? Ugh.

[jon abbey]

Curious to see how that Ichiro deal is actually structured, you could probably make an argument a 1/14 deal might be better for both parties than a 2/14.

[Edelpeddle]

No one is comparing them to the Belichick Patriots, but if success was as easy as spending money, the Sox would have been a lot more successful in recent years (as one example). Anyway, I don't think we need to rehash the entire last decade in detail here just because you're a new member, but there's a lot more nuance involved than your post contains. No one is comparing them to OAK or BAL or TB.

And for the record, unless I'm forgetting someone, the only semi-big FA signing NY has made in the last four offseasons (including this one) is the Rafael Soriano one (and even that Cashman was very much publicly against, FWIW).

But let's try to stick to 2013 in this thread. If you want to talk about something else that we haven't covered in detail before, please feel free to start a new thread, thanks.

The Red Sox don't outspend everyone else though, they haven't even had the second highest salary in baseball the last two seasons. If the Red Sox outspent the Yankees by $70 million dollars, I'm pretty sure they would have at least made the playoffs. You had stated five years ago, fans thought the Yankees were going to fall about. I find it hard to believe given that they went out and signed Sabathia, Teixeira. I think you're also forgetting that the Yankees spent significant money to keep Sabathia on the Yankees when he could opt out, to re-sign Jeter, to re-sign Rivera, etc.

You're right, it is more nuanced than simply going out and spending tons of money on free agents. Spending lots of money also comes in handy for the draft and international free agents and means you can use most of your home grown talent in trades, knowing you can fill those holes in the roster with All-Star free agents.

Edited by Edelpeddle, 13 December 2012 - 10:58 PM.

[Wingack]

Meanwhile, NY continues to stockpile scrub catchers, picking up Bobby Wilson of the Angels on a minor league deal.

Just make an offer to Miguel Olivo and be done with it.

[Brickowski]

Pretty hard to argue Ichiro over Russell Martin from a baseball perspective, why didn't they go to two years for Martin? Ugh.

You don't think Ichiro is a much better player than Russell Martin?

[terrynever]

They must want to keep Ichiro around for his 3,000th MLB hit in 2014. Him and A-Rod can do it the same year! Forget winning, the Yanks are going for milestones in 2014.

edit: he needs 394 hits for 3,000. could be a stretch. he had 178 hits last season while sleep-walking for four months with seattle.

Edited by terrynever, 13 December 2012 - 11:32 PM.

[jon abbey]

You don't think Ichiro is a much better player than Russell Martin?

Not for his position, no. Ichiro's D and baserunning were average at best for NY last year (UZR has him inexplicably high), and I think Martin is a known asset catching this staff plus 20 or so HRs.

[jon abbey]

You had stated five years ago, fans thought the Yankees were going to fall about. I find it hard to believe given that they went out and signed Sabathia, Teixeira.

You and I are going to butt heads this year if you keep posting like this in this section, you are not going to win that.

Five years ago was 2007, NY was about to move into a new stadium, BOS had just won their second WS in four years, NY looked old and done. After they missed the playoffs for the first time in the wild card era in 2008 and were about to move into their massively expensive new stadium with ridiculously overpriced seats they were trying to sell (in the wake of a global financial meltdown, no less), they went all in with Sabathia, Burnett and in a last minute change of heart to keep him away from Boston, Teixeira. Since then, they have been pretty damn cheap when it comes to anyone besides keeping their own guys.

I think you're also forgetting that the Yankees spent significant money to keep Sabathia on the Yankees when he could opt out, to re-sign Jeter, to re-sign Rivera, etc.

Or I made hundreds of posts here about those things at the time, remember the events quite clearly and am not interested in going back and forth on them again in a thread about the 2013 Yankees.

You're right, it is more nuanced than simply going out and spending tons of money on free agents. Spending lots of money also comes in handy for the draft and international free agents and means you can use most of your home grown talent in trades, knowing you can fill those holes in the roster with All-Star free agents.

The Yankees really haven't done any of those things since that huge 2008 winter except IFAs, and even there they've stayed away from most of the big ones (Chapman or Cespedes would have been great additions, to name two).

Anyway, again, this thread is about NY going forward in 2013. If you want to lecture us about history that we know much better than you, feel free to start a new thread, as I said already once.

[Brickowski]

Not for his position, no. Ichiro's D and baserunning were average at best for NY last year (UZR has him inexplicably high), and I think Martin is a known asset catching this staff plus 20 or so HRs.

Yes, I suppose the real comparisons are Ichiro vs the Cody Ross type player they might have acquired to play RF had they retained Martin. (I don't think a Josh Hamilton type was in the cards for them financially, especially if Swisher wasn't).

Edited by Brickowski, 14 December 2012 - 11:07 AM.

[jon abbey]

Cody Ross or someone similar would be out of their price range, but I think they'd probably be better off with someone like Justin Maxwell (who they had last year in spring training) or Chris Dickerson and Russell Martin than with Ichiro and the pu-pu platter of catchers they've currently got. Also it would probably be easier to trade for an OF upgrade midseason if needed.

I don't think NY planned out this offseason especially well, I think they maybe could have gotten Ichiro on a one year deal if they'd gone after him hard early on, since he's said from the start he wanted to stay a Yankee.

[Brickowski]

We'll just have to see how Ichiro pans out. Certainly if he continues where he left off last year he's going to be creeping up on 3000 hits by the end of year 2 (together with the 1,278 hits he had in Japan) and that will put fannies in the seats and perhaps some Pacific rim dollars into Yankee coffers.

And IMHO he's still a better outfielder than any of the RF alternatives in their price range.

[jon abbey]

Actually I think he will draw a lot of Japanese tourists to games no matter how he's doing, as long as he's playing. The game I went to last August he didn't start and only came in as a defensive replacement, but there were more obvious Ichiro fans there than maybe for any other player. The unfortunate thing is that the Yankee front office seems a lot more concerned this offseason with making money than putting a winning product on the field the next couple of seasons.

[terrynever]

Actually I think he will draw a lot of Japanese tourists to games no matter how he's doing, as long as he's playing. The game I went to last August he didn't start and only came in as a defensive replacement, but there were more obvious Ichiro fans there than maybe for any other player. The unfortunate thing is that the Yankee front office seems a lot more concerned this offseason with making money than putting a winning product on the field the next couple of seasons.

It's almost like the owners are cleaning up the house in order to sell it.

[Brickowski]

I'm optimistic about next year. They have a ton of pitching depth and will have more speed. But what happens after that? Again, they will need some help from their prospects if they want to remain competitive at $164 million (that's $189M minus the $25M they will be paying Arod in 2014).

Edited by Brickowski, 14 December 2012 - 08:45 PM.

[jon abbey]

Cervelli hitting very well in Venezuelan winter ball. I'm aware it means very little, but it's better than him not hitting:

18 G, 16-49, 16 R, 4 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 9 BB, 15 K, 1 SB, 1 HB (.327/.460/.571)

[Brickowski]

Ramiro Pena is hitting well in Mexico-- but the Braves just signed him.

[jon abbey]

So if having to give up a draft pick scares off all of Soriano's possible suitors, does NY take him back on a cheap deal (1/$5M maybe)? They would have all of the leverage and should play real hardball with him and Boras if it comes to that. And if he doesn't sign with anyone until after the season starts, does NY still get a draft pick when he does?

[derekson]

So if having to give up a draft pick scares off all of Soriano's possible suitors, does NY take him back on a cheap deal (1/$5M maybe)? They would have all of the leverage and should play real hardball with him and Boras if it comes to that. And if he doesn't sign with anyone until after the season starts, does NY still get a draft pick when he does?

It's definitely starting to look like Soriano ought to have taken the QO. The Tigers and Angels were his two most likely suitors, and they both spent big in other areas and decided to go cheap at closer. Is this a sign that big money deals for closers are drying up?

Edited by derekson, 19 December 2012 - 04:46 PM.

[soxhop411]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal
Source: Ibanez in agreement with #Mariners.