313 replies to this topic

[terrynever]

If Mo retires and Soriano opts out, aren't the Yankees essentially saving around $25M in two swoops? Make Robertson the closer and Montgomery the setup guy, assuming he continues his upward progression. There are enough moving parts to fill out the rest of the bullpen.

This is the easiest way that I see to cut payroll for the Yankees.

Bill Madden explains it better in Sunday morning column:

http://www.nydailyne...ticle-1.1193794

Edited by terrynever, 28 October 2012 - 08:05 AM.

[jon abbey]

2013 isn't the issue, multiyear deals that go into 2014 are. This is why Swisher has no chance of being retained, why Kuroda and Martin will both be very tricky, and why keeping Granderson past 2013 seems pretty unlikely right now. Rivera and Soriano will both only be on one-year deals for 2013 at most, so neither of them are much of a factor in the drive to cut payroll.

Basically CC/A-Rod/Teixeira and probably Cano will take up a massive amount of NY's proposed $189M (something like $94M in 2014 assuming $22M for Cano), that leaves something like $85M (factoring in the extra $10M for benefits etc.) to pay the other 21 guys on the team, so it's unlikely there will be more than maybe one other eight figure deal, again assuming they stick to this $189M plan.

[terrynever]

2013 isn't the issue, multiyear deals that go into 2014 are. This is why Swisher has no chance of being retained, why Kuroda and Martin will both be very tricky, and why keeping Granderson past 2013 seems pretty unlikely right now. Rivera and Soriano will both only be on one-year deals for 2013 at most, so neither of them are much of a factor in the drive to cut payroll.

Basically CC/A-Rod/Teixeira and probably Cano will take up a massive amount of NY's proposed $189M (something like $94M in 2014 assuming $22M for Cano), that leaves something like $85M (factoring in the extra $10M for benefits etc.) to pay the other 21 guys on the team, so it's unlikely there will be more than maybe one other eight figure deal, again assuming they stick to this $189M plan.

But you do agree that the Yankees have overspent wildly on the bullpen these past two years compared to the rest of baseball? And that when it comes to 2013 and 2014, savings can be made in the bullpen that might offset Cano's big salary increase.
I understand all the other issues. Yanks are heading into a period of roster uncertainty not seen with this franchise in almost 20 years.

Edited by terrynever, 28 October 2012 - 04:11 PM.

[jon abbey]

And that when it comes to 2013 and 2014, savings can be made in the bullpen that might offset Cano's big salary increase.

I agree that they shouldn't need to spend much on the bullpen, but that's always been factored into the plan. The plan is going to be close to impossible to pull off (given the huge deals already in place) even without Rivera and Soriano (and Robertson hits FA after 2014, but that's also not a concern until then).

[terrynever]

I agree that they shouldn't need to spend much on the bullpen, but that's always been factored into the plan. The plan is going to be close to impossible to pull off (given the huge deals already in place) even without Rivera and Soriano (and Robertson hits FA after 2014, but that's also not a concern until then).

So do you think the Yanks can succeed without any closer in 2013? I mean, you've been touting Monty for months, and I'm with you on this. Why not save $25M in the bullpen and see what a collection of young arms can do? (They need Mo to retire and Sori to opt out for this to happen.)

It's time this team starts getting younger instead of older. Maybe we need a thread on how this can happen, because it is the choice Cashman and his pro scouts have to be thinking about next week when they have their annual evaluation meeting.

Edited by terrynever, 28 October 2012 - 04:24 PM.

[jon abbey]

So do you think the Yanks can succeed without any closer in 2013? I mean, you've been touting Monty for months, and I'm with you on this. Why not save $25M in the bullpen and see what a collection of young arms can do? (They need Mo to retire and Sori to opt out for this to happen.)

Because it doesn't matter either way, spending $25-$30M on those two or not in 2013 really doesn't matter. Multi-year deals are the only thing that matters, they have plenty of room to spend in 2013. Maybe it will help if you look at the numbers:

https://spreadsheets...jLQ&output=html

[jon abbey]

Keep in mind when you look at those numbers that their $119M commitment for 2013 already includes Soriano too.

[crow216]

Keep in mind when you look at those numbers that their $119M commitment for 2013 already includes Soriano too.

It's about right anyway because of Cano.

[terrynever]

Keep in mind when you look at those numbers that their $119M commitment for 2013 already includes Soriano too.

The numbers are helpful but I still go back to my basic question. This team needs to get younger. Take a chance on a young bullpen in 2013. Don't sign Ichiro for a short deal. Do something to change the aging dynamic of this team, even if it's only on the outer fringes, beyond the $105M already invested in 2013.

I get the feeling Sori will be back, based on the fact he will find a dead market for closers, same as what happened last winter with Madsen. Sherman covered this nicely earlier in the weekend.

[jon abbey]

They don't need to get younger for the sake of getting younger, they had the best record in the AL (barely but still) and made it to the ALCS. Getting younger is easy to say, but much less easy to do given how many of their prospects had lost years in 2012 and the fact that they don't want to commit to any salaries in 2014 or beyond that they don't have to.

I'm not just playing devil's advocate, I'm open to any specific moves, but I think Cashman's got a difficult job ahead of him if they don't dump the $189M in 2014 idea (I think it's much more feasible a few years later).

Also, all of this should be in a different thread, I'll move it later.

[terrynever]

They don't need to get younger for the sake of getting younger, they had the best record in the AL (barely but still) and made it to the ALCS. Getting younger is easy to say, but much less easy to do given how many of their prospects had lost years in 2012 and the fact that they don't want to commit to any salaries in 2014 or beyond that they don't have to.

I'm not just playing devil's advocate, I'm open to any specific moves, but I think Cashman's got a difficult job ahead of him if they don't dump the $189M in 2014 idea (I think it's much more feasible a few years later).

Also, all of this should be in a different thread, I'll move it later.

Yes, we need a thread to talk about deals Cashman might be able to make, whether it's Alex Gordon in KC or someone under the radar. I think a lot of Yankee fans believe this team is trending very badly, to use an election word, even if it did win 95 games in 2012.

[MentalDisabldLst]

Perhaps Mo might be offered a Wakefield-like contract? Keeps the optionality/flexibility for the club while preserving a decent annual pay rate for Rivera as long as he can take the field.

[jon abbey]

Terry, sure, that's easy to recognize but much less easy to do something about. There are other more general threads to post in already, I believe. I'll move some posts later.

Perhaps Mo might be offered a Wakefield-like contract? Keeps the optionality/flexibility for the club while preserving a decent annual pay rate for Rivera as long as he can take the field.

The thing is that they pretty much don't want him in 2014, again assuming they stick to this $189M plan.

[Rough Carrigan]

Terry, sure, that's easy to recognize but much less easy to do something about. There are other more general threads to post in already, I believe. I'll move some posts later.



The thing is that they pretty much don't want him in 2014, again assuming they stick to this $189M plan.

Oh, that would go over well. Imagine if he has a big comeback season in 2013 and then they let him go pleading budgetary limits. How uncomfortable would that make every ARod at bat? He's not only declining but (mouthbreather fan's view)"He's the reason we don't have Mo!"

[terrynever]

Cashman has had more success acquiring position players rather than pitchers. In just the last few years, his deal for Swisher turned out well, and you could make a strong case for Granderson being an asset these past three seasons.

There has been some speculation (from Buster Olney) that Cashman is looking this offseason for a power hitter to replace Swisher's bat. One player mentioned is Alex Gordon of KC, whose lefthanded stroke might play well to the short porch in YS. Gordon is only 28. The Royals are short on pitching and would ask for Hughes or Nova, perhaps Robertson, in any deal, along with a potential replacement in left for Gordon. Hughes or Nova are expendable. Robertson is not.

I am not saying this particular deal will happen. Just hoping Cashman can make the Yankees younger via trade rather than signing Ichiro to replace Swisher for 2013.

Edited by terrynever, 28 October 2012 - 07:42 PM.

[jon abbey]

Would you give up Nova/Mason Williams/Betances for Gordon? That would really strengthen the leverage of both Pettitte and Kuroda, although I think both could already get very sizable one-year deals if they want, but I certainly like the team of CC/Pettitte/Kuroda/Hughes/Phelps and a lineup of:

Jeter
Gordon
Tex
Cano
A-Rod
Granderson
DH TBA
C TBA, hopefully Martin
Gardner

I'm not sure how an OF of Gordon/Granderson/Gardner would be best deployed, maybe Gordon in LF, Gardner in CF, Granderson in RF? That would be a nice defensive upgrade from this year, Gordon just won another Fielding Bible award in LF.

[jon abbey]

Also don't forget NY has an option on Aardsma as another back of the bullpen candidate, both he and Joba should be better one year removed from surgery.

[terrynever]

Would you give up Nova/Mason Williams/Betances for Gordon? That would really strengthen the leverage of both Pettitte and Kuroda, although I think both could already get very sizable one-year deals if they want, but I certainly like the team of CC/Pettitte/Kuroda/Hughes/Phelps and a lineup of:

Jeter
Gordon
Tex
Cano
A-Rod
Granderson
DH TBA
C TBA, hopefully Martin
Gardner

I'm not sure how an OF of Gordon/Granderson/Gardner would be best deployed, maybe Gordon in LF, Gardner in CF, Granderson in RF? That would be a nice defensive upgrade from this year, Gordon just won another Fielding Bible award in LF.

Yeah, I was thinking Gardner in CF next season because Grandy won't be around in 2014. Gordon is very good in LF.
Nunez might start the season at SS if Jeter isn't ready. I know the reports indicate he will be ready but with 39-year-old athletes, who knows?

[jon abbey]

It depends on his market, but it might make sense for both NY and Melky Cabrera to give him a 1 year/$8M or $10M deal to play RF and let him try to earn a big money deal elsewhere in 2014.

[jon abbey]

"The Yankees have exercised their club options for Robinson Cano ($15M), Curtis Granderson ($15M), and David Aardsma ($500k), the team announced."

So that puts them at about $150M, which will drop to $136M if Soriano opts out and leaves.

[terrynever]

It depends on his market, but it might make sense for both NY and Melky Cabrera to give him a 1 year/$8M or $10M deal to play RF and let him try to earn a big money deal elsewhere in 2014.

Switch-hitter, makes sense in a lot of ways.

[Edelpeddle]

"The Yankees have exercised their club options for Robinson Cano ($15M), Curtis Granderson ($15M), and David Aardsma ($500k), the team announced."

So that puts them at about $150M, which will drop to $136M if Soriano opts out and leaves.

Sorry, I didn't see this before I made my post. I have them at $143.1 after picking up these options. MLB Trade Rumors is estimating that they will pay $19.6 million for seven arbitration eligible players. That would put them at roughly $162.7 million for 15 members of their 40 man roster (before medical costs).

[jon abbey]

I was just using the 2013 number at Cot's (https://spreadsheets...jLQ&output=html) and adding $30.5M, but now I see I should have subtracted the $4M buyouts for Cano/Granderson if the options weren't picked up, so I have them around $146M, $132M if Soriano opts out and doesn't resign.

[abty]

I would not have re-upped granderson. Plenty of toolsy outfielders to hit .100 in the postseason for cheap. Forget the homers and think big picture. Change the make-up of the team or a least save the money and use it elsewhere.

[jon abbey]

Thankfully you're not running the team, Granderson led all of baseball in HRs in 2011/2012 and a one year deal makes all the sense in the world.

If you're just going by postseason BA, why bother re-upping Cano?

[abty]

Because cano is a great baseball player. Granderson is not. I see him falling off quickly and do not value homers more than consistent contact. I would focus more on pitching and youth but thankfully i do not run this team which is not built for their only acceptable goal - a ring. Yankees have different standards and you can achieve those goals without mr solo homers imho. I could be wrong, though, so lets wait and see.

[jon abbey]

It's a one year deal in a year where NY has plenty of money to spend, propose something better or stop.

Meanwhile here's some potentially great news for NY on Kuroda, especially if they keep Martin (which would really help Kuroda's comfort level even more as he's worked with him for a bunch of years now in both LA and NY):

http://yankees.lhblo...r-one-year-deal

[Rough Carrigan]

I fully intended to jump into this argument on the side saying that the yankees would be foolish not to bring back Curtis Granderson. There aren't a lot of great offensive centerfielders out there. And I thought Granderson's a good outfielder. So I went to billjamesonline to get the fielding bible plus-minus numbers to corroborate that.

Only, they don't. It seems like Granderson still makes a lot of excellent catches going back. Can any of the yankee fans attest as to that not being the case? Or does he have some other failing? Because these numbers are . . interesting:

2006 +12
2007 +20
2008 -11
2009 +14
2010 +18
2011 -19
2012 -17

Do the yankee fans here have the general perception that Granderson was a much better centerfielder his first year with them than these last two years?

Edited by Rough Carrigan, 01 November 2012 - 06:44 PM.

[jon abbey]

My impression is that it's been a more gradual falloff, so 2010 seems a little high, 2011 low (my guess would be between 0 and -10) and 2012 maybe a touch low but not far off. He more and more seems to get some terrible jumps or even breaks in the opposite direction and he also seemed to slow down noticeably this year (as reflected in his SBs dropping from 25 to 10). There's a good chance they move him to one of the corner spots this offseason and Gardner to CF. Whether he goes to LF or RF I think depends on who they add to replace Swisher.

But even as a corner OF, I think he's easily worth $15M on one year in NY's current situation. Citing the postseason numbers is especially ridiculous with him, the entire team was ice cold and he was great the prior two postseasons, one of NY's best October hitters in both 2010 and 2011.

[JohnnyK]

2011 low (my guess would be between 0 and -10) and 2012 maybe a touch low but not far off. He more and more seems to get some terrible jumps or even breaks in the opposite direction and he also seemed to slow down noticeably this year

I actually think Gardner might have hurt Grandy's defensive ratings a bit last year as GGBG got to a lot of stuff that might normally be the CF's responsibility (OOZ seems to back this up). However, this year Grandy got somewhat exposed with Ibanez in LF, and I totally agree with your assessment that he often took poor routes, especially on balls hit directly towards him (anecdotal, but I seem to remember multiple instances of him initially breaking the wrong way on flyballs to straight center). Additionally, his arm also rated quite poorly this year.

But yeah, picking up the option was a no-brainer.

[Rough Carrigan]

My impression is that it's been a more gradual falloff, so 2010 seems a little high, 2011 low (my guess would be between 0 and -10) and 2012 maybe a touch low but not far off. He more and more seems to get some terrible jumps or even breaks in the opposite direction and he also seemed to slow down noticeably this year (as reflected in his SBs dropping from 25 to 10). There's a good chance they move him to one of the corner spots this offseason and Gardner to CF. Whether he goes to LF or RF I think depends on who they add to replace Swisher.

But even as a corner OF, I think he's easily worth $15M on one year in NY's current situation. Citing the postseason numbers is especially ridiculous with him, the entire team was ice cold and he was great the prior two postseasons, one of NY's best October hitters in both 2010 and 2011.

Your observations seem reasonable. There's a huge element of luck in even the seasonal numbers. Coco Crisp looked like the greatest centerfielder ever in 2007. He caught so many balls juuuust at the limit of his range. The dive into the left centerfield gap to snare a David Wright liner in Fenway was the perfect example. In 2008, it seemed like a ton of balls were hit juuuust out of his range, especially dropping just short of him. He wasn't really a +26 fielder as the numbers came out in 2007 nor a -2 fielder as the numbers came out in 2008. One season was about the limit of good luck the other about the limit of bad luck. I think the way you're looking at Granderson is similar and, IMO, right.

[Brickowski]

Even with the 43 hrs, Granderson's OPS in 2012 was 45 points lower than Austin Jackson's, and Granderson had nearly 200 strikeouts. He also misjudges too many balls. I would not have picked up his option. I'd rather spend the money on Swisher and put Garnder in CF.

Edited by Brickowski, 02 November 2012 - 05:11 PM.

[JohnnyK]

I'd rather spend the money on Swisher and put Garnder in CF.

Swisher won't take a one year deal, and his AAV will prohibit the Y's from even considering him (which I think is a mistake). Grandy can't hold out for more years.

[Brickowski]

So you have Granderson for one year. Then what happens? Won't he also want a multi-year deal when his current contract expires? Why not spend over multiple years for a better player, especially when you have a perfectly good replacement in CF plus the possibility of resigning Ichiro (who along with Jeter was your best player for the last 30 games of the season) for reasonable money?

Edited by Brickowski, 02 November 2012 - 02:31 PM.

[JohnnyK]

Well, you are preaching to the choir here - I'd much rather keep Swish (who gets an unfair amount of flak for his lack of postseason production IMHO) than let him walk, although I expect him to get something like 5/75 which is a little long for my tastes. OTOH he has been a 4 WAR player the last 3 years, so getting him for 15 mill. a year would be money well spent even accounting for a decline due to him aging.
I bet they let Grandy walk next year unless they can get him for cheap seeing their intent on getting under 189 mill. in 2014, though.

While I think Ichiro might work for another year, I am not sure the few games he played in NY can eliminate the stink of his last 1.5 seasons in Seattle. I would count on some regression there.

Edited by JohnnyK, 02 November 2012 - 03:57 PM.

[jon abbey]

I think they would go for Torii Hunter (who somehow had the best season of his career according to bWAR this past year, 5.5!) over Ichiro, Hunter has never made a secret of the fact that he would like to play for NY and big one-year deals fit into NY's 2014 plan nicely.

Along those lines, they made $13.3M draft pick qualifying offers to Soriano and Swisher (both likely rejected, Swisher certainly) and Kuroda (possibly accepted) today.

[Brickowski]

While I think Ichiro might work for another year, I am not sure the few games he played in NY can eliminate the stink of his last 1.5 seasons in Seattle. I would count on some regression there.

No doubt. But if he hits .290 with 15 hrs and an OPS over .800 he's giving you about what Granderson gives. Many of Ichiros outs are productive outs, moving runners etc. as opposed to strikeouts. Plus Ichiro is still a great defensive outfielder.

So what happens if they let Swisher walk this year and Granderson next year? Are they expecting guys like Mason Willimas or Tyler Austin to be ready for the big show a year from now? Or do they plan to fill in the corner outfield positions with cheap free agents?

Edited by Brickowski, 02 November 2012 - 04:08 PM.

[jon abbey]

Let's not overrate Ichiro either, his defense and baserunning have both declined to about average (the UZR love for him this year is inexplicable to me based on his time in NY).

[jon abbey]

Plus Ichiro is still a great defensive outfielder.

This is absolutely not true based on his time in NY, also his arm is pretty bad now (this is shocking considering how good it was when he first came to the US, but was something I watched very carefully).

So what happens if they let Swisher walk this year and Granderson next year? Are they expecting guys like Mason Williams or Tyler Austin to be ready for the big show a year from now? Or do they plan to fill in the corner outfield positions with cheap free agents?

One of those options probably, yes.

Again, if they really plan to stick to this $189M in 2014 plan, they're going to have to let a lot of people walk over the next two offseasons and I doubt how competitive they'll be in 2014 (although that's a long way away, so who knows).

[JohnnyK]

No doubt. But if he hits .290 with 15 hrs and an OPS over .800 he's giving you about what Granderson gives.

Please let me know how likely you think this is. Have you seen Ichiro's numbers and that he will be 39 for all of next season? Sure, Yankee Stadium will be kinder to him than Safeco, but it looks like you are placing waaaayyyyyyy too much emphasis on a small sample.

Many of Ichiros outs are productive outs, moving runners etc. as opposed to strikeouts.

Yeah, only productive outs really don't exists apart from very specific situations where you play for a single run. Sure, Granderson's strikeouts are a concern, but arguing for a productive out is silly.

Plus Ichiro is still a great defensive outfielder.

Hm. He is certainly still good, but much better suited for LF now. Which would obviously work with Gardner in CF and Swish in RF, but calling him "great" sounds like a reach.

So what happens if they let Swisher walk this year and Granderson next year? Are they expecting guys like Mason Willimas or Tyler Austin to be ready for the big show a year from now? Or do they plan to fill in the corner outfield positions with cheap free agents?

I wish I knew; unfortunately, Cashman has yet to call me ;-)
I do agree with jon that Hunter looks like a likely candidate.

[jon abbey]

Not a surprise, but the Angels didn't offer Hunter a qualifying offer today, so NY wouldn't lose a draft pick if they sign him.

[Brickowski]

They could do worse than Tori Hunter, although he's only a couple of years younger than Ichiro.

[xjack]

Out of respect for the hurricane victims in NYC, the Yankees should forgo free agent signings for the next two years and donate all that $$ to the Red Cross.

[jon abbey]

Rivera says he definitely wants to come back, now he just has to work out a deal with Cashman:

http://yankees.lhblo...return-in-2013/

So unless Soriano takes the $13.3M qualifying offer, he'll almost certainly be gone and NY will get an extra draft pick.

[derekson]

It's hard to see a team giving up a draft pick for the pleasure of offering Soriano $3/30 or more. I think he ends up taking the QO and coming back to the Yankees for a year.

[jon abbey]

83 year old Mike Ilitch and his dream to finally win a title at any price says hello, we'll see. The deadline for accepting qualifying offers is the 9th, next Friday.

[derekson]

The Tigers are definitely the one team that popped into my head, but they're already paying Dotel and Benoit pretty big money to be at the back end of their bullpen, and they've got some young fireballers like Albuquerque and Villareal and Dombrowski has talked up prospect Bruce Rondon as a possibility for closer as well.

I think if the Tigers spend in the FA market it's to upgrade their OF corner bats.

[jon abbey]

Boras is Soriano's agent also, he likes to try to wait out the market and it seems to work for him more often than not. I'd be stunned if he caved by next Friday, I'd say there's a 20 percent chance tops he comes back, maybe less.

[jon abbey]

A Newsday writer reported that Kuroda "has told friends" he is deciding between NY and going back to his old Japanese team (11 years there), the Hiroshima Carp:

http://www.newsday.c...inter-1.4185073

[Dahabenzapple2]

The idea that Ichiro puts up a 800+ OPS is insane based on reality - last year's was 0.696 despite his good performance with the Yankees late in the year which is to my eyes and ears is unrepeatable save for the 5 walks in 240 plate appearances.

I think *that* type of rate is a good bet to continue but does anyone here or anywhere think the guy puts up a SA of anywhere near the 0.454 being he hasn't cracked the 0.400 plane since 2009.

i hope they give him a 3 year deal...