43 replies to this topic

[RochesterSamHorn]

Surely, the key figure on this team going forward due to his contract situation, and his value as our biggest trade commodity. So, everyone should know the options. Which do you prefer? Play out the contract? Resign him? Use as the key player in a trade for E. Andrus, Justin Upton, or a starting pitcher?

[TOleary25]

So the Red Sox options are:

A) Play out the season and sign him while competing with other teams on the free agent market
B) Play out the season and let him walk, receive a draft pick as compensation
C) Trade him this offseason
D) Trade him at the deadline, where no draft pick compensation will be received by the Sox or the team trading for him
E) Approach Ellsbury about an extension

I think Option E is the least likely since Scott Boras almost always brings his players to free agency. Option A will probably take a large number of years/dollars to sign him, and I'm not very comfortable giving a 30 year old speedster that type of deal. Option D can be risky because it is relying on Ellsbury remaining healthy, being productive, and a team offering more in a trade without receiving compensation.

That leaves Option B and Option C. As I have stated in other threads, I believe trading him this offseason is the best route to take. At this point I would even consider trading Ellsbury for prospects, which is a better scenario than Option B since the prospect(s) will be closer to the majors and less of an unknown. If you can package him for an already productive player (Andrus,Upton) that is controlled past 2013, than all the better.

[ehaz]

I'm a fan of the Ellsbury for Lincecum idea. Both depreciating in value, Boras clients coming off down years. Ultimately, the upside of an ace pitcher (who's never really had any serious issues with injuries) is of greater value to the Sox than that of Ellsbury's upside especially when considering the free agent CF options. BJ Upton, Angel Pagan and Torii Hunter each put up fWARs of 3.3, 4.8 and 5.3 last year. It's much harder to replace that sort of value with a starting pitcher and a lot riskier and expensive as well.

[alwyn96]

Ellsbury is a riddle wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a mystery. How the hell is Ellsbury valued? He's a model of inconsistency, with one fantastic season, 2 ok seasons, and 2 lost-to-injury/lousy seasons. How the heck do other teams see that? It's tough to ding him too much for 2010, and although he was hurt in 2012, he didn't exactly impress in his halfish-season. I'm also starting to see durability as a type of skill as well - being able to withstand a collision with Adrian Beltre/Reid Brignac has value. I sort of think that may be a "quality" that players possess, but don't hold me to that.

I'm trying to think of a good comparison player, but I'm failing. Ellsbury's clearly got tons of talent, but his playing time and health have been erratic, and it's unclear if he might be able to harness his skills again or if he's really just an ok to good player. If I were another team I wouldn't give up much for him until I was pretty sure he was the same (or similar) guy he was in 2011.

Edited by alwyn96, 23 October 2012 - 08:37 PM.

[touchstone033]

It's tough to ding him too much for 2010, and although he was hurt in 2012, he didn't exactly impress in his halfish-season. I'm also starting to see durability as a type of skill as well - being able to withstand a collision with Adrian Beltre/Reid Brignac has value. I sort of think that may be a "quality" that players possess, but don't hold me to that.

That's spot on. I hear the term "injury plagued" for Ellsbury, and I cringe b/c the time he missed came from freak accidents. It's not like he has chronic knee/shoulder/wrist problems. But...yeah...it could be a pattern of a kind, I guess, running into others. It is possible that his shoulder is still bothering him, which is why saw a dropoff in power.

As for comps, How's Eric Davis?

Edited by touchstone033, 23 October 2012 - 09:55 PM.

[LostinNJ]

Ellsbury is a riddle wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a mystery. How the hell is Ellsbury valued? He's a model of inconsistency, with one fantastic season, 2 ok seasons, and 2 lost-to-injury/lousy seasons. How the heck do other teams see that? It's tough to ding him too much for 2010, and although he was hurt in 2012, he didn't exactly impress in his halfish-season. I'm also starting to see durability as a type of skill as well - being able to withstand a collision with Adrian Beltre/Reid Brignac has value. I sort of think that may be a "quality" that players possess, but don't hold me to that.

I'm trying to think of a good comparison player, but I'm failing. Ellsbury's clearly got tons of talent, but his playing time and health have been erratic, and it's unclear if he might be able to harness his skills again or if he's really just an ok to good player. If I were another team I wouldn't give up much for him until I was pretty sure he was the same (or similar) guy he was in 2011.

Agreed. I wonder if a good comp might be J. D. Drew (though his injuries weren't the result of accidents, as Ellsbury's have been). The playing time issue has to be factored in to an assessment of the player's value. Drew still had value despite missing so many games, and Ellsbury will too, going forward, I think, probably.

[alwyn96]

That's spot on. I hear the term "injury plagued" for Ellsbury, and I cringe b/c the time he missed came from freak accidents. It's not like he has chronic knee/shoulder/wrist problems. But...yeah...it could be a pattern of a kind, I guess, running into others. It is possible that his shoulder is still bothering him, which is why saw a dropoff in power.

As for comps, How's Eric Davis?

Yeah, I don't want to call him injury plagued exactly, but there's an area where "freak accidents" ends and "injury prone" begins.

Eric Davis was never really healthy, and no offense to Ellsbury, but Davis was like 10 times the player Ellsbury's been so far. There was never any question that Davis was a superstar if healthy, while you can't say the same about Ellsbury. He got MVP votes every year from 24-28. Davis was one of the most electric players since Willie Mays, and maybe one of the biggest "what-if?" players of the 80's-90s.

[jasail]

I think you have to explore options to trade him this winter. See if you can use him as a key piece in a package trade to net you a pitcher or a cornerstone position player. If there is nothing out there or if the cost of the additional prospects needed to net you that player is too high, then I'm also fine walking away and having him start the season in CF in Boston and make evaluations from there. But I think with the number of wholes the Sox need to fill (SP, OF, SS, 1B) you need to see what you can get for him.

[TOleary25]

That's spot on. I hear the term "injury plagued" for Ellsbury, and I cringe b/c the time he missed came from freak accidents.

Yea I agree that I wouldn't necessarily call him injury plagued, but when he does get hurt there seems to be lingering effects and a slow recovery.

As for comps, I thought a pretty good one I saw the other day was Darin Erstad. Erstad was a better defender than Ells but Jacoby has more speed. Erstad was a pretty productive player from 1997-1999 then in 2000 he blew up to have a monster year at age 26 posting an 8.8 WAR. He never came close to replicating those numbers again.

[orr4num]

Ellsbury is a riddle wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a mystery. How the hell is Ellsbury valued? He's a model of inconsistency, with one fantastic season, 2 ok seasons, and 2 lost-to-injury/lousy seasons. How the heck do other teams see that? It's tough to ding him too much for 2010, and although he was hurt in 2012, he didn't exactly impress in his halfish-season. I'm also starting to see durability as a type of skill as well - being able to withstand a collision with Adrian Beltre/Reid Brignac has value. I sort of think that may be a "quality" that players possess, but don't hold me to that.

I'm trying to think of a good comparison player, but I'm failing. Ellsbury's clearly got tons of talent, but his playing time and health have been erratic, and it's unclear if he might be able to harness his skills again or if he's really just an ok to good player. If I were another team I wouldn't give up much for him until I was pretty sure he was the same (or similar) guy he was in 2011.

Well...in his defense for this past year...shoulder injuries like his do tend to take longer to truly heal. I had one similar to his, at his age, and it still bugs me even now, 20+ years later. We'll have to see him play in spring training and into the start of '13 to gauge his health, provide of course he's still in a RedSox uniform.

if your last sentence IS the barometer that other teams are using, then we're "doomed" to see him play out the string in Boston and walk off as a free agent. I'll caveat that by saying that if, and it's a big if, we have the 2011 Ellsbury going full bore at the trade deadline next year, and there's a "gfin" team looking for the impact bat/position player, he could fetch an overpay in trade. Otherwise, if I'm Cherington, I'd need to be convinced he'll ask for Kemp-like numbers, and if that's the case, I shop him around this winter.

[alwyn96]

Well...in his defense for this past year...shoulder injuries like his do tend to take longer to truly heal. I had one similar to his, at his age, and it still bugs me even now, 20+ years later. We'll have to see him play in spring training and into the start of '13 to gauge his health, provide of course he's still in a RedSox uniform.

if your last sentence IS the barometer that other teams are using, then we're "doomed" to see him play out the string in Boston and walk off as a free agent. I'll caveat that by saying that if, and it's a big if, we have the 2011 Ellsbury going full bore at the trade deadline next year, and there's a "gfin" team looking for the impact bat/position player, he could fetch an overpay in trade. Otherwise, if I'm Cherington, I'd need to be convinced he'll ask for Kemp-like numbers, and if that's the case, I shop him around this winter.

Oh man, I hurt my shoulder 2 years ago and it still bugs me too - I really hope it doesn't become a 20 year thing. It doesn't effect my day to day life much, but it's like 70% of what it used to be and I can't even really work on it in the gym. Of course, our injuries don't really bode well for Ellsbury's future, although he'll probably be getting more helpful medical care than I've gotten.

[Trotsky]

Expect a bounce back (not to his 2011 season) to somewhere around an .800OPS then package him and Lester in a 3-way deal. Get back a BJ Upton somehow. With Bradley looking like the real deal, not only will we not be able to resign Ellsbury (Boras), we shouldn't.

[Minneapolis Millers]

These options aren't mutually exclusive. They can almost do all of them. Float some contract ideas to Boras. Unlikely to go anywhere, but you never know. Initiate trade discussions with teams. Doubtful we'd get good value at this stage, for the reasons stated above. If they CAN get good value, then dealing him is fine. Otherwise, talks now could set the stage for a later mid-season deal.

If there's no off-season deal, go into the season and hope for a total team improvement, led by a resurgent Ells. If we're competing, hold onto him and go for it. If we're not, deal him at the deadline. (We'll also have a better idea if Bradley's success is continuing with another half-year of games under his belt.) If he's an .800 OPS good-not-great guy, and we don't get a great trade offer, hold him and offer him the qualifying one year deal at year's end, let him walk, take the pick. And if he stinks or gets hurt again, let him walk and simply move on.

[touchstone033]

Expect a bounce back (not to his 2011 season) to somewhere around an .800OPS then package him and Lester in a 3-way deal. Get back a BJ Upton somehow. With Bradley looking like the real deal, not only will we not be able to resign Ellsbury (Boras), we shouldn't.

BJ Upton? That's a big step down from Ellsbury, both in talent and watchability. That's like dumping your wife for a woman ten years older, 100 pounds heavier, and who nags you twice as much.

[orr4num]

Expect a bounce back (not to his 2011 season) to somewhere around an .800OPS then package him and Lester in a 3-way deal. Get back a BJ Upton somehow. With Bradley looking like the real deal, not only will we not be able to resign Ellsbury (Boras), we shouldn't.

And if our new manager, in concert with whomever is the new pitching coach, manages to fix Lester (which makes him a highend #2, perhaps a #1 in your rotation), you wanna package him AND a fairly resurgent Ellsbury and get somebody WORSE than either of the pieces in our package???

[keyalyn]

It's pretty obvious that he meant Justin Upton, rather than his brother and current free agent BJ. Wouldn't be a stretch for Lester and Ellsbury to not be enough to land Justin.

[Trotsky]

It's pretty obvious that he meant Justin Upton, rather than his brother and current free agent BJ. Wouldn't be a stretch for Lester and Ellsbury to not be enough to land Justin.

Thanks. Yes. Justin. Brain. Fart. ....

Oh... and I wouldn't suggest a direct trade. I'd be thinking a 3 team trade that adds Ellsbury and Lester to playoff bound 3rd team(not AZ) for a playoff push and sends big name prospects to Arizona sending us Upton.
I don't think it'd make sense for AZ to get Ells and Lester. I'd also imagine we'd have to send other smaller parts and would probably get smaller parts back also.

Edited by Trotsky, 25 October 2012 - 03:23 PM.

[shanks]

has anyone considered ichiro for short money/yrs for RF? this would give us a natural (and very good) lead off hitter in the event we do find a deal worth making for ellsbury, especially a deal for a pitcher.

[touchstone033]

Eric Davis was never really healthy, and no offense to Ellsbury, but Davis was like 10 times the player Ellsbury's been so far. There was never any question that Davis was a superstar if healthy, while you can't say the same about Ellsbury. He got MVP votes every year from 24-28. Davis was one of the most electric players since Willie Mays, and maybe one of the biggest "what-if?" players of the 80's-90s.

Hm. I think you're grossly undervaluing the season Ellsbury had in 2011, which was better than Davis' best year (1987). And it's not like Ellsbury's other full seasons were wasted years. He put up a 4.2 fWAR year in '08 and a 2.4 fWAR in '09. Besides '87, Davis had a couple of 4s and a couple of 3s...but then Ellsbury's not done playing yet.

[alwyn96]

Hm. I think you're grossly undervaluing the season Ellsbury had in 2011, which was better than Davis' best year (1987). And it's not like Ellsbury's other full seasons were wasted years. He put up a 4.2 fWAR year in '08 and a 2.4 fWAR in '09. Besides '87, Davis had a couple of 4s and a couple of 3s...but then Ellsbury's not done playing yet.

That's basically all a product of fielding stats, though. I'm not sure I really buy the fWAR for Davis. He was an amazing GG winning CF, widely considered the best in baseball, and he gets zero love from Total Zone, which is a pretty weak stat. I think things get particularly dicey comparing dWAR across eras, when the data sources for fielding are coming from different places, and even modern fielding stats are pretty iffy.

At any rate, what we're (or I'm, anyway) really talking about is hitting, which Davis excelled in. If you're a WAR fan:

Age oWAR
Ellsbury Davis
24 1.4 5.5
25 3.1 6.8
26 -0.4 4.8
27 7.4 5.1
28 0.6 3.3

EDIT: Sorry this table looks like garbage. I swear it looked better in preview and I stink at html coding.

It's tough to use any flavor of WAR to compare injured guys, because of course it's a counting stat. If you want to assess 'what-if', rate stats are probably the way to go, right? That said, offensively Davis never quite got up to Ellsbury's oWAR highs, but of course he wasn't a leadoff hitter and basically never made it through a whole season, while in 2011 Ellsbury got a crazy number of PA leading off and played nearly every game. If you give Davis 200 more PA in any given season at similar rates, he likely bests Ellsbury's best season several times over.

Eric Davis was basically a superstar (albeit an often injured one) from age 24 on, whereas Ellsbury didn't really hit superstardom until age 27, and he hasn't really shown he belongs in that category yet. Davis was more like a less durable Ryan Braun with less average, but more power and speed. Being able to perform at a high level for multiple years goes a long way towards showing you're not a fluke.

Edited by alwyn96, 26 October 2012 - 02:23 AM.

[touchstone033]

It's tough to use any flavor of WAR to compare injured guys, because of course it's a counting stat. If you want to assess 'what-if', rate stats are probably the way to go, right? That said, offensively Davis never quite got up to Ellsbury's oWAR highs, but of course he wasn't a leadoff hitter and basically never made it through a whole season, while in 2011 Ellsbury got a crazy number of PA leading off and played nearly every game. If you give Davis 200 more PA in any given season at similar rates, he likely bests Ellsbury's best season several times over.

Eric Davis was basically a superstar (albeit an often injured one) from age 24 on, whereas Ellsbury didn't really hit superstardom until age 27, and he hasn't really shown he belongs in that category yet. Davis was more like a less durable Ryan Braun with less average, but more power and speed. Being able to perform at a high level for multiple years goes a long way towards showing you're not a fluke.

All right, that's a damn good argument. I will bow to your assessment of Davis. That said, I see a tendency among SoSHers to discount Ellsbury's talent and the season he had in 2011. Yes, it was only one year, but he had steadily improved with each full year he played, and even if he regresses to '08 & '09 levels, he's still pretty valuable. He's the best CF the Sox have had since....Ellis Burks? Fred Lynn? He will not be easily replaced.

[TOleary25]

Yes, it was only one year, but he had steadily improved with each full year he played, and even if he regresses to '08 & '09 levels, he's still pretty valuable. He's the best CF the Sox have had since....Ellis Burks? Fred Lynn? He will not be easily replaced.

I think his '08 and '09 seasons can be pretty easily replaced. This free agent class is deep at CF and I think there are a couple of veteran options that are capable of putting up that kind of value that may not cost a whole lot. Hunter, Victorino, and Pagan are all capable of 3 WAR seasons next year and could be stopgaps to JBJ until he's ready. And JBJ definitely has the potential to be a 3+ WAR player if his on base skills and defense translate in the MLB.

If Ellsbury's healthy I would expect him to be better than those seasons but I don't see him ever repeating 2011 levels.

Edited by TOleary25, 26 October 2012 - 10:05 AM.

[Towney007]

Considering the number of options available and the uncertainty in valuing Ellsbury, I think people are entirely over-valuing him.

[Minneapolis Millers]

Considering the number of options available and the uncertainty in valuing Ellsbury, I think people are entirely over-valuing him.

Agreed. Unless we're talking about finding a desperate trade partner later in the offseason, any team thinking about an Ellsbury trade could just as easily go after one of those FA CFers. It's not like Ellsbury will be cheap this season, either, and the fact that he's only a one year commitment cuts both ways from a value/cost perspective.

[RochesterSamHorn]

I know that this has been bandied about numerous times before in the past, but has there ever been a better time/circumstance to actually initiate this trade than now? That would be the Lester/Ellsbury (hometown Pacific NE boys) to Seattle (and not for Felix Hernandez, the pipe dream), but for 2 or 3 of their top pitching prospects who are now coming into focus. I have a feeling Seattle ownership is ready to spend some money and make a few big moves this year to expedite their contending position within Felix's tenure. They're to move in the fences, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them sign Josh Hamilton. With Lester to make a formidable 1- 2, R/L for their rotation, and Ellsbury to lead off and set the table for Hamilton, they would significantly improve. They have a cache of good pitching prospects to choose from - Walker, Hultzen, Pryor, Paxton, Capps.
My trade scenario: Lester
Ellsbury
Lavarnway (who I'm not sold on for our future c.)

for Hultzen L/P
Pryor R/P
D. Ackley INF. (expected to break-out this year w/ bat)
M. Zunino C. (prospect to be better than Lavarnway)

Edited by RochesterSamHorn, 26 October 2012 - 10:59 AM.

[sancap14]

Ellsbury + for Andrus. And Lester isnt going anywhere. This team needs pitching. Trading Lester (coming off bad year) makes zero sense for an OF even if that OF name is Justin Upton. Not going to happen. I agree with alwyn, durabiltiy is a skill. And obviously its not like Ellsbury pulled a hammy or twisted some back fat his 2 lost seasons. But it did take him forever to come back from those injuries and I'm just not willing to spend big bucks on a OF where these questions even come up. Trade him this offseason for a young SS. Iggy aint going to cut it.

[Towney007]

I think a trade straight up for Lincecum might not be bad for either team. Both Boras guys, both risks, but essentially exchanging problems in areas of need. Red Sox taking on a little more salary I think makes it fair.

[TheMino007]

Sox can trade him now while his value is at an all time low. They can try to trade him during the season before the deadline and hope he puts up numbers to boost his value. Still, they wont' get full value for a guy who will be considered to two month rental. Or they let him play it out, play the year and let him hit free agency. He's not going to get Crawford $. No way. Not with his injury track record and one year wonder label. If he walks, collect the picks. Get Bradley ready for his shot in 2014. 2011 offseason was really the time to trade. Anyway you look at it, this is Ellsbury's last year in Boston. What can you get for him? Andrus? Lincencum? J Upton? Worth exploration, Ben.

[abty]

Carlos Beltran gave us Zack Wheeler. A productive Ellsbury might give you a nice chip. With that said, don't even think of signing this guy. I can't even remember 2 years where he played 157 games and stood out. He's all promise and, like Jose Reyes, will never really live up to his full talent level. Move on and get what you can for him the first moment he has value and if there is a market for him.

[wine111]

I think Ellsbury has value, but his tradability would be enhanced if Boras would let Ellsbury sign a long term deal with the team trading for him. Without that deal, the team trading for Ellsbury is only getting him for one year. I believe Ellsbury's next few years will be closer to 2011 than many people think. He is at his physical peak and should be capable of averaging around 20 homers and 50 steals while hitting .300 with strong defensive CF play. That has value, but I would not go over $15 million per year for him. I do not believe Boras will accept that.

Ellsbury is still a useful trade chip for a team like SF, who could really benefit from his leading off for their team. Texas would still be a possibilty, especially if Hamilton signs elsewhere. We still have a desperate need for at least a number 2 pitcher or a power bat. Neither team has the power bat that they would be willing to give up, unless Texas gives up Adrian Beltre or Nelson Cruz. I don't think Texas would give up Beltre, but I think they would trade Cruz. It looks to me that the three possibilities are Derek Holland, Elvis Andrus and Nelson Cruz. I think each of the three have something to offer. I do not like Lincecum at all. His walk totals are too high and he strongly benefitted from pitching in a division with three strong pitchers parks in S.F., L.A. and San Diego.

I think Seattle would trade for Ellsbury and also sign Hamilton. But Lester will not be traded and should not be. Hultzen is not available and Ackley is a second baseman so he's not coming here either. I wish Seattle would make Montero available, but I doubt that would happen short of offering Ellsbury, Barnes and Salty. I would be willing to make that move for a young right handed bat like him. He really needs to learn plate discipline but if he does, look out! Middlebrooks, Bogaerts and Montero also would look real good over the next several years if we can't acquire Justin Upton. If the M's get Hamilton, Ellsbury and Salty while adding Barnes to their stable of young pitchers and only give up Montero (loads of potential, but he's still only one player), I think they would be happy with the results. I think they would also have a good shot at signing Ellsbury as he is a West Coast guy.

Edited by wine111, 20 November 2012 - 03:16 AM.

[Rich Garces Belly]

I would do C or D and if that does not work then do B. What I mean by that is I would try trading him now, but if teams are seriously undervaluing him then I would hold onto him and hope he is performing well at the trade deadline and try again then. I think the Tigers and Angels showed this year that teams will still give up talent at the deadline even though they wouldn't get a draft pick. If Ellsbury gets injured or doesn't perform then you hold onto him and collect the compensation pick.

[plucy]

Where can you get a comparable CF on the market for a one year, $9M deal? I'd rather they try to compete in '13 If he gets hurt or plays poorly, they can afford to offer the QO for '14.

[Farty Barrett]

Trade him for Rendon and Tyler Moore. Washington doesn't mind negotiating with Boras, so let them deal him re: Ellsbury. At the time, Rendon is blocked in Washington, who is coming off an MLB best record season. Jacoby is perfect for their outfield and for the top of their line-up. They can take the next step with a guy who has a ring and is in CF.
I don't see him bringing the Sox Upton or even Andrus... and the RS don't have any ready 1st basemen. Heck, even Rendon could be groomed to play there and give the sox as very talented infield, and a right side that can really field. I like Moore even with his k/bb.

Both guys, Rendon and Jacoby are freak accident 'risks' (read clumsy?).
My sentiment here is that most of the current team seems like spoilt fruit. Cull away. If Ellsbury can bring prospects, trade for a cool one.

Edited by Farty Barrett, 19 November 2012 - 02:51 PM.

[RochesterSamHorn]

Looks like the Sox are laying the ground work for trading Ellsbury. The question is, do you trade him now, while teams are still trying to fill out their rosters, or wait till the trade deadline to give JB a chance to maximize his value, but you reduce your # of trade partners because most cf holes will be filled? What can we expect to get now?

[AK_]

Looks like the Sox are laying the ground work for trading Ellsbury. The question is, do you trade him now, while teams are still trying to fill out their rosters, or wait till the trade deadline to give JB a chance to maximize his value, but you reduce your # of trade partners because most cf holes will be filled? What can we expect to get now?

definitely wait. increase his value and if we trade him, trade him at the deadline

with injuries and players underperforming and teams looking towards playoffs, there will always be a need for a talent like Ellsbury, so trading him when he's most valuable is the best shot of getting something in return

[alwyn96]

definitely wait. increase his value and if we trade him, trade him at the deadline

with injuries and players underperforming and teams looking towards playoffs, there will always be a need for a talent like Ellsbury, so trading him when he's most valuable is the best shot of getting something in return

I'd probably say wait too, although it obviously depends on what you could get for him. Teams tend to pay a higher price in prospects/useful pieces during the season if they feel they've got a good shot at the playoffs. Of course, Ellsbury would have to be playing well for him to have any value to a contending team. I don't think there's any real sense of how Ellsbury is valued across the league, but I suspect it's pretty low until he can demonstrate that he's a worthwhile player again. There's probably little point to dealing him when his stock is at a low point.

Edited by alwyn96, 11 December 2012 - 02:34 AM.

[BoredViewer]

Keep him for now and evaluate as season goes along.

[doubrontsneighbor]

Keep him for now and evaluate as season goes along.

I agree, Keep him unless you can get a very good pitcher. But Ellsbury is like a car, once you drive it off the lot, its value goes down. If he plays one game with the sox, which ever team he gets traded to , can't get a pick for him. Thats why Ben has to either trade him, or decide he is part of the plan for the 2013 season now.

[TOleary25]

The key now is if Ben is looking to add another hitter to this team. If Swisher or Hamilton are brought in, Ellsbury becomes a lot more expendable. The only way I see Ells getting traded during the season is if he has a strong start but the Sox aren't doing well. I doubt he would be traded in the middle of a pennant race if he was doing well and I doubt any team would trade anything of quality for him if he was having a bad/injured season. I'm with the camp that says trade him now for the best deal available even if that means prospects.

Edited by TOleary25, 11 December 2012 - 10:37 AM.

[rglenmt]

Fred Lynn's Rookie season when he was Rookie of the year and MVP in 1975, might have been better than Jacoby's, Fred was a bit more amazing fielder but both had great seasons. If Jim Ed Rice had not been injured and unable to play the last 2 months of the Season and in the World Series in 1975 Fred and Jim Ed might have won one of those awards as co-winner, we'll never know and since Jim Ed had the better career ultimately after many years of consideration being voted into the HOF, maybe it all balanced. Now in 2012 and 2013 Jacoby may be traded to another team as it seems certain he will otherwise leave the Red Sox via Free Agency and it seems both the Red Sox reason for causing or allowing that to happen and Jacoby Ellbury's and Scott Boras's reasons for that happening are understandable. I do think cause the Sox have an experienced GM, Ben Cherington won't be forced by LL and/or ownership and/or fans into doing something not in the team's best long range interests. I trust in Ben actually much more than I did in Theo, but let's see what happens. Since Ben has taken other steps to rebuild the Red Sox for the long term, I still think it will be in the team's best interests to trade Jacoby sometime between now and July 31, 2013.

respectfully submitted,

rglenmt f/k/a pudgefick

[wine111]

Considering the number of options available and the uncertainty in valuing Ellsbury, I think people are entirely over-valuing him.

True. The factors working against Ellsbury will be the same at midseason as they are now, even if he's having a big year.
1. He will be a free agent after 2013.
2. Scott Boras is his agent.
3. His aggressive play leads to high injury risk.
4. Unless the acquiring team is Seattle, the Yankees, the Dodgers or Arizona, the acquiring team knows they can't sign Ellsbury as a free agent.
5. It is confidently assumed the Red Sox have virtually no chance of resigning Ellsbury and no interest in signing him, no matter what the Red Sox say in public So the Red Sox are perceived to be stuck with him.

Their best chance to trade Ellsbury was after the 2011 season, when they already knew they were not going to sign him long term. Now they have to hope that Seattle or Arizona want him badly enough to overlook some of the above factors and give some value back. Seattle is most likely that club. The Red Sox won't deal him to the Yankees. The Dodgers could offer Andre Ethier, but he is too expensive at over $16 million a year for his level of production (and another left handed hitter in a right handed hitters park). His numbers also look eerily similar to J.D. Drew's before he came to Boston, except for durabilty. When Drew was healthy, they were comparable players. And they are comparable defensively. That scares me away from Ethier. In the final analysis, Arizona would prefer to keep Upton (unless he's a clubhouse problem, which I haven't heard regarding him) as opposed to taking a chance with Ellsbury. That leaves offensively starved Seattle, who would choose if they want him this year or wait until he hits free agency. Since I think they have the best chance of signing Ellsbury and Boras won't let Ellsbury sign long term with Seattle as part of a trade, they are likely going to wait and take their chances with him at free agency.

The Red Sox may end up with Ethier as an overpay. If the Dodgers do trade for Ellsbury or dump Ethier, they become the primary competitors with Seattle for Ellsbury, as both teams have huge CF/power alleys for Ellsbury to patrol and the Dodgers could move Kemp to RF, which would give them strong OF defense (above average range) to help their pitching staff (with Crawford in LF). So I expect Ellsbury to be a Mariner, Dodger (if Ethier is traded) or Yankee (if the Yankees succeed in clearing out some payroll and want both Gardner and Ellsbury to give them plus OF range) as a free agent (D-backs get out bid) but a trade is looking like a remote possibility.

Edited by wine111, 11 December 2012 - 04:17 PM.

[RochesterSamHorn]

With the sudden delay in the Napoli signing, and Texas running out of options (Justin Upton unlikely to be traded), could a Ellsbury + Salty + ? to Texas for Olt + Holland be in the works?

[wine111]

With the sudden delay in the Napoli signing, and Texas running out of options (Justin Upton unlikely to be traded), could a Ellsbury + Salty + ? to Texas for Olt + Holland be in the works?

I think the Rangers will sign Josh Hamilton and forget about Ellsbury. The Rangers wouldn't have much of a chance of signing Ellsbury anyway. He's looking to get back to the West Coast or possibly the Yankees who might be the most likely to overpay to restore some athleticism to an old team, if they can get rid of an expensive contract or two. Seattle will throw plenty of money his way and is the most likely fit.

[alwyn96]

With the sudden delay in the Napoli signing, and Texas running out of options (Justin Upton unlikely to be traded), could a Ellsbury + Salty + ? to Texas for Olt + Holland be in the works?

With Shields being traded for Myers, and Choo for Bauer & Shaw, I don't know what the hell to think anymore. Sure, why not? With Napoli still not signed, they could still theoretically go crazy and trade everyone, BVTS-style.

Edited by alwyn96, 12 December 2012 - 01:49 PM.