169 replies to this topic

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Any thoughts on Iglesias vis-a-vis his contract? I know he was signed as an international free agent, but I can't figure out how long the club controls him for or how many options he has.

He has one option left and the club has control of him through at least 2018. I believe once his current contract runs out, he's subject to the auto-renewal of any other pre-arb player until the end of 2015.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Any thoughts on Iglesias vis-a-vis his contract? I know he was signed as an international free agent, but I can't figure out how long the club controls him for or how many options he has.

He has one option left. And, someone correct me if I'm wrong (probably), but I believe - even though he was an IFA signing - the Sox have him for six years until he's a FA. Service time to date: 0.071.

edit: beaten

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 07 December 2012 - 12:05 PM.

[Drek717]

Any thoughts on Iglesias vis-a-vis his contract? I know he was signed as an international free agent, but I can't figure out how long the club controls him for or how many options he has.

He signed a 4 year, $8.25M contract, had 4 option years but since it was a ML deal has used three already. If they send him to AAA this year it's the last season they can.

His AAV should be about $2.05M, he has effectively zero ML service time (0.071 by Baseball Ref).

So he can definitely be sent back to AAA for one more season, or half a season if they so choose, but after this year he's got to be in the majors. Personally that would seem like a great temptation to keep him in AAA for one last year of seasoning before he's got to sink or swim at the ML level anyhow.

Ivan De Jesus is supposed to be out of options (per SoxProspects) and he'll be 26 for the start of the season with well over 1200 ABs at AAA (.303/.355/.416 slash) but a combined 73 ML ABs. I'd think if nothing else he's our utility infielder for 2013, but if he translates that consistent batting average (AAA seasons ranged from .296 to .310) at AAA to the majors he could make a real run at the starting job.

[Rovin Romine]

Well I guess that means we have the following options:

Iggy in the majors or minors in 2013, perhaps raising his trade stock/perhaps not.
Iggy in the majors in 2014, either as a starting SS or a defensive replacement. (I can't see his value being maximized as a bench player; due to his OK speed, noodle bat, and lack of ability to play multiple positions.)
Additionally, if Xander sticks at SS, he'll arrive in 2014/15.

I think the implication is that for 2013 we should be doing whatever will convince other clubs Iggy can be a starting shortstop, because he's most likely to be traded when Xander is ready. (We can't send him to the minors, and he's not an ideal bench player.) Balance that against developing Iggy so he can be our starting SS (in case of a Xander move/flameout.) Or see if Iggy can play 2B as well, to maximize his utility/trade value.

Unfortunately, whether that means giving him the starting job or sending him to AAA, I still have no idea.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Has anyone in the media asked Beyeler how much of an impact Iglesias' defense has had for him these past two seasons and how it might relate to a full-season at the ML level?

[Savin Hillbilly]

Or see if Iggy can play 2B as well, to maximize his utility/trade value.

This would make a good deal of sense if he had any offensive value at all. But since 100% of his current value consists of his apparently generational ability to play the hardest non-C position on the diamond, how does it really make him more valuable to show that he can also play another position? He's already a borderline major leaguer as an elite defensive SS; he'll be even more borderline at 2B no matter how great his defense there.

In short, he has no leftward movement potential, because he has a bat that doesn't play anywhere. Yet. So 100% of the Sox' energy devoted to Iglesias should be about helping him improve his offense. Until that happens, nothing else matters. They can either do it at the ML level or the AAA level; I would trust their development guys to have a good enough sense of Iglesias' makeup to know if there's a right answer from that point of view. If the answer is "it doesn't matter," then all the Sox have to decide is whether they really have a better option available. If so, take it, stash Iggy in AAA and re-evaluate periodically. If not, start him in the bigs next year and cross your fingers.

[Drek717]

Well I guess that means we have the following options:

Iggy in the majors or minors in 2013, perhaps raising his trade stock/perhaps not.
Iggy in the majors in 2014, either as a starting SS or a defensive replacement. (I can't see his value being maximized as a bench player; due to his OK speed, noodle bat, and lack of ability to play multiple positions.)
Additionally, if Xander sticks at SS, he'll arrive in 2014/15.

I think the implication is that for 2013 we should be doing whatever will convince other clubs Iggy can be a starting shortstop, because he's most likely to be traded when Xander is ready. (We can't send him to the minors, and he's not an ideal bench player.) Balance that against developing Iggy so he can be our starting SS (in case of a Xander move/flameout.) Or see if Iggy can play 2B as well, to maximize his utility/trade value.

Unfortunately, whether that means giving him the starting job or sending him to AAA, I still have no idea.

If we're going to have a roster that has both Bogaerts and Iglesias starting I'd think Iglesias at SS would be locked in stone and the question would be where to play Bogaerts for maximum results. 3B is the obvious answer that comes to mind but if Middlebrooks repeats or improves on his shortened 2012 season he's going to lock up 3B long term.

Pedroia will be only 29 this next season and the FO has talked about wanting to extend him, even with an option through 2015. He's likely got at least another 4-5 years in a Red Sox uniform, so 2B is a non-option for getting these guys on the field.

[ForceAtHome]

Has anyone in the media asked Beyeler how much of an impact Iglesias' defense has had for him these past two seasons and how it might relate to a full-season at the ML level?

I really like this question, but as far as I know, it has not been asked.

As a point of clarification, Beyeler and Iglesias have been together for the past 3 seasons. Beyeler was the manager in Portland prior to being promoted to Pawtucket two years ago, so they spent 2010 together as well. In fact, Iglesias has played 246 of 261 career minor league games with Beyeler as manager.

[Rovin Romine]

This would make a good deal of sense if he had any offensive value at all. But since 100% of his current value consists of his apparently generational ability to play the hardest non-C position on the diamond, how does it really make him more valuable to show that he can also play another position? He's already a borderline major leaguer as an elite defensive SS; he'll be even more borderline at 2B no matter how great his defense there.

I agree with just about everything you're saying. I was trying to suggest that If he could also play second it would marginally increase his trade value by giving him another off the bench role (late inning defensive replacement at SS or 2B.)

Also Drek717's point as to a possible eventual log jam with Middlebrooks/Boegarts/Iggy/Pedrioa is well taken. I don't see any one of them being more valuable as a 1B or OF. But who knows how offense might further decline in the next few years, or if Boegarts grows out of SS. Iggy has to stick first though. Given Iggy's complete lack of power anyway, I keep thinking he'll be most valuable in trade to a team with a spacious park and younger starting pitchers with high groundball ratios.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

If we're going to have a roster that has both Bogaerts and Iglesias starting I'd think Iglesias at SS would be locked in stone and the question would be where to play Bogaerts for maximum results. 3B is the obvious answer that comes to mind but if Middlebrooks repeats or improves on his shortened 2012 season he's going to lock up 3B long term.

Pedroia will be only 29 this next season and the FO has talked about wanting to extend him, even with an option through 2015. He's likely got at least another 4-5 years in a Red Sox uniform, so 2B is a non-option for getting these guys on the field.

If this best case scenario does play out I wonder if the Sox would consider moving Middlebrooks to 1st. He has good hands and reports from his minor league career described a guy who had great reflexes and dug the ball out of the dirt well. He might be able to make a similar move to the one Youk made years ago. If this is all happening in two years, the team would have the option to move Napoli to DH and let David Ortiz retire of walk. Of course, if it happens in 2014 (optimistic but not impossible, IMO) there is less room to maneuver which could force a trade or a year of Bogaerts in right field.

And there's a good point that's been made by a few posters in the last week that while getting great offense out of positions higher on the defensive spectrum is great in isolation, it's the total sum of your offense that matters in practical terms. So while Bogaerts' bat may be less valuable as a right fielder than it would as a shortstop, if he's going to be on the roster either way then it makes no difference (offensively) if his bat is at short, in right or even left.

Where the impact on wins starts showing up is defense, so the question is how good would Bogaerts be defensively in the outfield and is there a roster construction that would be more optimized defensively? If his skillset doesn't translate to a good defensive outfielder, maybe they throw him in left and leave Victorino in right with Bradly in center? There are a lot of options, so I'm sure it's not going to be a crunch so much as need for some shuffling.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 07 December 2012 - 02:53 PM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I agree with just about everything you're saying. I was trying to suggest that If he could also play second it would marginally increase his trade value by giving him another off the bench role (late inning defensive replacement at SS or 2B.)

I question how much trade value Iglesias can possibly have given his contract status; he's already making more than $2M.

[Bowlerman9]

I question how much trade value Iglesias can possibly have given his contract status; he's already making more than $2M.

He's making a little more than the league minimum.

His $6M signing bonus was paid 3 years ago.

[Sprowl]

If this best case scenario does play out I wonder if the Sox would consider moving Middlebrooks to 1st. He has good hands and reports from his minor league career described a guy who had great reflexes and dug the ball out of the dirt well. He might be able to make a similar move to the one Youk made years ago. If this is all happening in two years, the team would have the option to move Napoli to DH and let David Ortiz retire of walk. Of course, if it happens in 2014 (optimistic but not impossible, IMO) there is less room to maneuver which could force a trade or a year of Bogaerts in right field.

Middlebrooks has a great arm, excellent reach and good range, but he had more than his share of Dr. Strangeglove moments in his rookie year. I would say that his hands are his main shortcoming on defense.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I question how much trade value Iglesias can possibly have given his contract status; he's already making more than $2M.

As already stated, most of his contract value comes from his signing bonus that was already paid out. A team acquiring him now would only be on the hook for about $560K for 2013, then whatever they want to pay him in 2014 before he's arbitration eligible in 2015.

[Bowlerman9]

As already stated, most of his contract value comes from his signing bonus that was already paid out. A team acquiring him now would only be on the hook for about $560K for 2013, then whatever they want to pay him in 2014 before he's arbitration eligible in 2015.

Actually, there's no chance he is even arb eligible in 2015. It will be 2016 at the earliest.

[Detts]

If X turns into what we HOPE he can be, he will play where he plays. ie, if he can handle short, he will be at short because that is where the team will see the most value and you trade iggy. If he has to move off short to 3b, he will play at 3b, and you trade Wombat because his max value is at 3rd base..not 1st base. You just don't take a premium bat like his and move him off SS until you HAVE to do it...especially just to 'fit him in' (assuming...once again...he becomes what we HOPE he can become).

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Middlebrooks has a great arm, excellent reach and good range, but he had more than his share of Dr. Strangeglove moments in his rookie year. I would say that his hands are his main shortcoming on defense.

Oh, I saw him last year... I was pointing to reports from his minor league career which contradict what we saw of him last year. It's possible he just had rookie year yips. Take a look at his thread in the minor league forum.

http://sonsofsamhorn...l-middlebrooks/

From the initial post:

As a fielder, he has good hands and above average arm strength and accuracy, but slightly below average range.

From Sickels in 2011:

Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Grade C+: Glove is very strong, offense is gradually improving but plate discipline will be tested in Double-A.

From BP's top 11 list in 2011:

The Good: Middlebrooks has all the tools to be a big-league regular. His above-average raw power began to show up in games during the 2010 season, and scouts think plenty of his doubles will turn into home runs down the road. He's a very good defensive third baseman with good reactions, soft hands, and a strong, accurate arm.

I'm not willing to throw his minor league scouting reports out the window just yet. Maybe his hands were overrated. It wouldn't be the first time a prospect was hyped beyond the reality of his skills. Even still, I'm willing to give it a little more time before deciding the reports about his hands and glove were erroneous.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 07 December 2012 - 03:38 PM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

He's making a little more than the league minimum.

His $6M signing bonus was paid 3 years ago.

Ah, my bad. Thanks

[Drek717]

Oh, I saw him last year... I was pointing to reports from his minor league career which contradict what we saw of him last year. It's possible he just had rookie year yips. Take a look at his thread in the minor league forum.

I'm not willing to throw his minor league scouting reports out the window just yet. Maybe his hands were overrated. It wouldn't be the first time a prospect was hyped beyond the reality of his skills. Even still, I'm willing to give it a little more time before deciding the reports about his hands and glove were erroneous.

Well sure, minor league scouting says he's got good hands and I'd agree that he's got real potential to have those claims proven this season, but even last year as a rookie you couldn't double the kid's arm from third (or hell, foul ground) and he's got good range and reactions already at 3rd. If his glove work matches his mL scouting in 2013 he might have the potential to be a solid 1B, but he'd already be a plus 3B.

That's the rub with Middlebrooks. His defense has consistently been further along than his bat, and his bat has come on big the last two seasons. You can't move him to another position when he seriously has the long term potential to become the best defensive 3B in the league. (this is not me saying that I expect him to be, just that I bet a poll of scouts leaguewide on which young 3Bs have that potential would see Middlebrooks' name pop up more than most).

If X turns into what we HOPE he can be, he will play where he plays. ie, if he can handle short, he will be at short because that is where the team will see the most value and you trade iggy. If he has to move off short to 3b, he will play at 3b, and you trade Wombat because his max value is at 3rd base..not 1st base. You just don't take a premium bat like his and move him off SS until you HAVE to do it...especially just to 'fit him in' (assuming...once again...he becomes what we HOPE he can become).

What if Iglesias is this defensive superman and shows in the next year or two that he could consistently put up a wOBA of .310 in the majors (i.e. good enough offense to not be a total liability)?

What if at the same time Bogaerts proves that he could be a league average SS but not any better?

What if there is reason to believe that Bogaerts in LF or RF would be at least a marginally above league average defender?

And finally, what if a league average SS Bogaerts is a .300/.360/.480 bat while a plus RF Bogaerts with an extra 20 pounds of muscle is a .300/.360/.520 bat? He can only get so much bigger and stay at SS, if his natural maturation has him tipping the scales around 2 bills do we really want to restrict that just to keep a good bat at SS when we might be turning down a great bat in the OF?

Edited by Drek717, 07 December 2012 - 04:32 PM.

[pokey_reese]

If X turns into what we HOPE he can be, he will play where he plays. ie, if he can handle short, he will be at short because that is where the team will see the most value and you trade iggy. If he has to move off short to 3b, he will play at 3b, and you trade Wombat because his max value is at 3rd base..not 1st base. You just don't take a premium bat like his and move him off SS until you HAVE to do it...especially just to 'fit him in' (assuming...once again...he becomes what we HOPE he can become).

Well, the real question would be 'if we have to move X to RF/LF to find a place for his bat, is the decrease in WAR from sliding him down the defensive spectrum outweighed by the WAR value of whatever WMB would fetch in a trade that would allow us to stick X at 3B (assuming that he is able to play 3B after outgrowing SS)?'

Is (Xander 3B + player received in trade for WMB) > (WMB 3B + Xander RF)? If we are looking at X as an average 3B or an average RF defensively, it is probably worth moving him, though a lot of that will depend on seeing a full season or two of WMB in the majors, especially on the fielding side of the ball.