95 replies to this topic

[dbn]

I should have started this poll last night when the rage and overreaction was at it's height.

[SMU_Sox]

St. Louis, Miami (twice), Houston, and San Francisco are all formidable opponents. The Jets play us tough too. I voted 11-5 because I believe this team can turn things around. You're talking about a team that has lost 3 games by a total of 4 points. Two of those games were controversial losses. Remember the '09 Ravens? They had the best DVOA in the league but were 9-7 because they lost close games to good teams. In the end all you really need to do is make the playoffs. This team is going to get there. Whether their defense improves enough during the season remains to be seen. I have a lot of hope for this squad.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

11-5, we win the east and finish as either the 2 or 3 seed in the AFC.

How we're playing at the end of the year will be much more important than where we're seeded.

[Mystic Merlin]

Where's the option for 14-2?

[dbn]

Sweep the division, lose @STL and HOU, 11-5, host Denver in the first round, Manning face.

[dbn]

Where's the option for 14-2?

In the thread about the Red Sox being a "100 win team" talent-wise.

[SMU_Sox]

Oh what the hell:

Home Jets: Win
Away (London) Rams: Win
Bye
Home Buffalo: Win
Home Indy: Win
At Jets: Win
At Miami: Loss
Home Houston: Loss
Home SF: Win
At Jacksonville: Win
Home Miami: Win

It's not that 13-3 isn't possible. They certainly have the talent to win the games on the remaining schedule it's that their execution has been spotty. I don't see them losing more than 3 either. So between a floor of 10-6 and a reasonable ceiling of 12-4 I'm going to go in the middle.

quick edit: I realize that if this were to come to pass that this season would have 2 of the unthinkable events happen (back-to-back losses).

Edited by SMU_Sox, 15 October 2012 - 05:53 PM.

[Tyrone Biggums]

12-4

They'll lose to San Fran but win against everyone else. The rest of their road games are cake walks IMO unless of course you believe they'll drop a game in Miami or to Jacksonville

[collings94]

I think it's pretty clear, just going by recent Pats history that they will probably drop one to Houston or San Fran, and then another to one of the other teams. 11-5 should be good enough to secure the division, maybe even a bye.

[mikeford]

Split with the Jets and Miami and lose to SF and Houston

9-7

[phragle]

Split with the Jets and Miami and lose to SF and Houston

9-7

[Mystic Merlin]

Losing two primetime home games back-to-back, in December? Come at me.

[BigSoxFan]

11-5.

Lose to one of SF/Hou and to either the Jets/Dolphins on the road. I don't envision this team losing any other game barring some unforeseen injuries.

[Turrable]

Probably 11-5. Reactionary fan in me says 9-7 but then again... http://sonsofsamhorn...e-the-playoffs/

[NortheasternPJ]

I voted 10-6. i think 11-5 is reasonable but 13-3 really? I'm shocked so many went 12-4. I have zero faith in this team right now to win 5 more division games and beat one of Houston / SF. I hope I'm wrong.

[SMU_Sox]

Some of us came out looking pretty damn good in that thread. But there are those who are impulsively overreactionary. If the Pats were a stock I'd be buying low and buying big.

Two bets up for grabs to anyone here.

For those of you who say they finish 10-6 I will bet $50 to the jimmy fund they finish better.

For those of you who say they finish 9-7 $100 to the jimmy fund that they finish better. I'll post this in the usual thread later.

Edit: Thanks!

Edited by SMU_Sox, 16 October 2012 - 08:58 AM.

[ilol@u]

I think 11-5 is good enough to get the division. (Crazy to think 11-5 in 08 didn't even make the playoffs).

2 remaining loses to either: Houston, San Fran, AND/OR 1 silly division game.

[ZP1]

I think they end up dropping 1 game to either Houston or SF, and then end up winning out otherwise. We'll see though.

[RedOctober3829]

11-5 sounds about right, but they need to really finish games off against quality competition. All 3 phases of the game have failed them at the end this year. It's all about being mentally and physically tougher than the opponent and they haven't been. Being tougher at the end of the game means staying disciplined in your schemes, knowing time and score so you don't get baited on play action for instance, running the football when everybody knows you are going to in order to milk the clock, and Brady making the right decisions with the football. 3 losses by 4 total pts means there's optimism for a big season still, but these errors need to be fixed in order to be a serious SB contender. Right now, they aren't.

Edit: and FO makes me sound like a nancy.

Edited by RedOctober3829, 16 October 2012 - 03:07 PM.

[Ralphwiggum]

As someone in that other thread said, this forum is unreadable after Patriot losses. Free Mallet? Embarrassing. 3 losses by 4 points. Two on he road in difficult venues. Two NFC losses which don't hurt that bad for tiebreaker purposes.

The team has flaws like everyone else but the run isn't over yet. If they lose this Sunday then we have serious issues. Right now the only thing that has happened is some margin for error is gone. I voted 12 -4.

[PaulinMyrBch]

I think the season will be symbolic of the can't finish the job team we've been seeing. Running the table impressively, winning the next 8, peaking with big wins against SF/Hou, and then we'll lose to Jacksonville and Miami to finish the season.

[Toe Nash]

I think they lose to one of SF or Hou (probably SF) and either @ NYJ or @ Mia. The secondary improves a bit, but most importantly the offense stops making clock management and playcalling mistakes (which is really inexcusable and would have put away both the Bal and Sea games).

As others have pointed out, the only game in which they were really outplayed, especially on the lines, was the Arizona game, and they still had to miss a field goal to lose that one.

[dbn]

I think they lose to one of SF or Hou (probably SF) and either @ NYJ or @ Mia. The secondary improves a bit, but most importantly the offense stops making clock management and playcalling mistakes (which is really inexcusable and would have put away both the Bal and Sea games).

As others have pointed out, the only game in which they were really outplayed, especially on the lines, was the Arizona game, and they still had to miss a field goal to lose that one.

As others have pointed out, they were not outplayed in the Arizona game.

First downs and total yards for each game:

NE 25, 390
Ten 16, 284

ARI 16, 242
NE 25, 387

NE 33, 396
BAL 28, 503

NE 33, 580
BUF 19, 438

DEN 22, 394
NE 35, 444

NE 26, 475
SEA 17, 283


The only game where I think a case can be made that they were outplayed was the Baltimore game, and that was hard to judge because of the refereeing.

[Toe Nash]

Why are first downs and total yards the only criteria? I recall that most people weren't too upset with missing the field goal because they shouldn't have even had the opportunity to kick it if not for the fumble.

They gained a lot of yards but had just one TD. Brady was sacked 4 times. I guess the Pats defense played well too (against a poor offense) so the whole team wasn't necessarily "outplayed," but the offense definitely wasn't up to snuff, especially at home. Special teams, too, since the blocked punt was huge. But sure, jump on me when you agree with my general point.

[dbn]

Sorry, I didn't mean for my post to seem like I was jumping on you. Rather, as you say, I do agree with your general point and was trying to add to that.

Not to belabor the point but looking at the drive summaries, in three categories and sorted by yards:

Impressive drives:
NE 11 plays, 82 yards, TD
AZ 9 plays, 75 yards, TD

Drives with points:
AZ 13 plays, 60 yards, FG
NE 11 plays, 47 yards, FG
NE 7 plays, 47 yards, FG
NE 7 plays, 30 yards, FG
NE 6 plays, 29 yards, FG
AZ 4 plays, 7 yards, FG
AZ 3 plays, 2 yards, TD


Other drives:
NE 7 plays, 43 yards, punt
NE 12 plays, 41 yards, punt
NE 5 plays, 37 yards, punt
AZ 7 plays, 30 yards, yards, fumble
AZ 4 plays, 29 yards, punt
NE 4 plays, 21 yards, punt
AZ 5 plays, 17 yards, punt
AZ 5 plays, 10 yards, fumble
AZ 3 plays, 9 yards, punt
AZ 3 plays, 8 yards, punt
NE 6 plays, 6 yards, missed FG
AZ 3 plays, 2 yards, punt
NE 3 plays, 1 yards, blocked punt
NE 1 play, 0 yards, INT
AZ 3 plays, -7 yards, punt
NE 3 plays, -17 yards, punt

I'd say that the Patriots "outplayed" the Cardinals. Of course, though, it didn't matter.

[ragnarok725]

Probably 11-5. Reactionary fan in me says 9-7 but then again... http://sonsofsamhorn...e-the-playoffs/

Yeah - I'm not sure we learn each year. They're better or the same in all the areas we thought would cause their downfall last season. Maybe they'll continue throwing games away, but I have a hard time believing it.

I'm one of the few 13-3 votes on here. The losses have been frustrating, and there are definitely some deficiencies. But they're better or on par with every team remaining on their schedule, and I just get the sense they'll go on a run.

Edited by ragnarok725, 16 October 2012 - 03:00 PM.

[RedOctober3829]

FO posted their playoff odds. Patriots have a 66% chance at the division and 88% overall at a playoff spot. At 3-3, they currently have the 2nd best odds to win the AFC and tied for the 2nd best odds in the entire NFL of winning the Super Bowl.

http://www.footballo...ats/playoffodds

[dbn]

FO posted their playoff odds. Patriots have a 66% chance at the division and 88% overall at a playoff spot. At 3-3, they currently have the 2nd best odds to win the AFC and tied for the 2nd best odds in the entire NFL of winning the Super Bowl.

http://www.footballo...ats/playoffodds

I love stuff like this so thanks for posting. I'm sure someone will points to something like Denver's 92% likelihood to win the AFCW and insist that these numbers should be ignored. So, I'll preemptively comment that any such odds are simply another tool that may or may not illuminate something interesting. Also, it's important to remember that they don't model DVOA confidence intervals.

NE's mean wins are 10.0. Lock the thread?

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

I voted 11-5 because I do think there's a chance they lose a division game, I think the London game is up for grabs just because it's such a weird travel and game situation, and I think either Houston or San Fran could beat them. Going 8-2 the rest of the way is still pretty impressive.

But, as someone said above, if the one division game they lose is the one coming up against the Jets at home, all bets are off. That Jets team does not have its premier defensive player, has an objectively poor quarterback, and is lacking in offensive star power in general. If the Pats can't beat them at home then I'll agree with SJH: They're just not that good.

[Super Nomario]

I can't believe none of the non-Pats fans on this board have come in here and voted 6-10 just to piss us all off.

[54thMA]

11-5 sounds about right to me; so far this team reminds me of the 1977-1984 Patriots, losing games in nut punch fashion.

Those teams for the most part didn't just lose games, they sucked the life out of you.

They lost a game on a Monday night down in Miami in the late 70's when all they needed to do was win and they would make the playoffs and the Dolphins sucked that year, they had a game winning field goal blocked, then lost in overtime and missed the playoffs.

Another game they lost was in 1984 in Denver, they were driving for the winning score when Don Criqui said "And Grogan hands off to the sure handed Mosi Tatupu" who fumbled and the Broncos ran it back for a game clinching touchdown, knocking the Patriots out of the playoff chase.

This team is a lot like those teams....................

[nothumb]

If I were running a book, I think the o/u at this point would be 10.5

I think the most likely outcome is 11-5, and anything less than 10 or more than 12 would really, really surprise me.

I also think they end up beating HOU by 2 scores. Lose two of @MIA, @STL, vs SF.

We're not losing to the fucking Jets this year.

[fairlee76]

10 - 6.

Lose to Houston and SF and find a way to lose one more. Or beat one of Houston and SF and find a way to lose two more.

[tims4wins]

I go back and forth on whether this season is more 2009 or 2010/2011. The 2009 team kept losing heartbreakers - the games in Denver and Miami come to mind, and I think there was at least one other heartbreaker. At this point in 2010 an 2011, no one was predicting 14-2 or 13-3. So far this year seems more like 2009 with their inability to close out games they should win going away, so I went with 10-6. That said, 13-3 would not surprise me in the least.

Edit: oh yeah and they blew 4th and 2 in Indy. Duh. What should have been a 13-3 season ended up 10-6.

Edited by tims4wins, 16 October 2012 - 08:42 PM.

[fairlee76]

As others have pointed out, they were not outplayed in the Arizona game.

First downs and total yards for each game:

NE 25, 390
Ten 16, 284

ARI 16, 242
NE 25, 387

NE 33, 396
BAL 28, 503

NE 33, 580
BUF 19, 438

DEN 22, 394
NE 35, 444

NE 26, 475
SEA 17, 283


The only game where I think a case can be made that they were outplayed was the Baltimore game, and that was hard to judge because of the refereeing.

OK, the 2004, 17 - 2 Patriots lost the first down battle in 7 of their games and the total yards battle in 8 of their games. I am not sure what this tells us.

I know there is no way to definitively judge this, but I think the Cardinals outplayed the Pats. They just "looked" like the more physical, tougher team. The Seahawks looked adept at completing Hail Mary's and stopping the run.

[maufman]

Next 5 games: NYJ, @STL, BUF, IND, @NYJ
Last 5 games: @MIA, HOU, SF, @JAX, MIA

I'm guessing they'll go 4-1 in the next 5 and 3-2 in the last 5, so I voted 10-6.

[jsinger121]

I go back and forth on whether this season is more 2009 or 2010/2011. The 2009 team kept losing heartbreakers - the games in Denver and Miami come to mind, and I think there was at least one other heartbreaker. At this point in 2010 an 2011, no one was predicting 14-2 or 13-3. So far this year seems more like 2009 with their inability to close out games they should win going away, so I went with 10-6. That said, 13-3 would not surprise me in the least.

Edit: oh yeah and they blew 4th and 2 in Indy. Duh. What should have been a 13-3 season ended up 10-6.

Ya but that 2009 team really had zero offense. They had no tight ends like we do now. Moss was pretty much at the end and the only offense was Welker. There was also no running game as well. That team went 10-6 for a reason because Brady carried their asses.

[Tony C]

Next 5 games: NYJ, @STL, BUF, IND, @NYJ
Last 5 games: @MIA, HOU, SF, @JAX, MIA

I'm guessing they'll go 4-1 in the next 5 and 3-2 in the last 5, so I voted 10-6.

Exactly the same here. In the last set, I figure a split of the Hou and SF games, and a split with Miami. Funny, I posted in the half glass full thread as one of the more optimistic voices here, but doesn't mean they sweep the table. 10-6 should be good for the division and maybe a #2 seed the way the season is shaking out, which will put the Pats in good shape.

[crystalline]

You know your team is a juggernaut when their record is 3-3 and 200 of 201 voters pick them to finish with at least 9 wins. That's a statement about the positivity of even the worst pessimists.

To me it's all about how well they practice, focus, and pull together, after a bad start and a demoralizing blown win at Seattle. We can't know much about a lot of that but we will know more after a few weeks.

[JohnnyK]

10 - 6.
Lose to Houston and SF and find a way to lose one more. Or beat one of Houston and SF and find a way to lose two more.

Agreed with that. This team will make the playoffs, but they do have at least one surprising loss in them, maybe two.

I actually like their odds against SF, but that game is still pretty far away.

[bsartist618]

I just cannot see them NOT losing at least 3 games with the way this secondary has been playing. I voted 10-6 and I feel that is optimistic. As much as I want 12-4 to happen, I just couldn't convince myself it was possible.

[Lack_of_Imagination]

10 - 6.

Lose to Houston and SF and find a way to lose one more. Or beat one of Houston and SF and find a way to lose two more.

I know others have a similar view as this but this would concern me in so many ways, essentially it will have meant that they’ve lost every game to what will probably be playoff teams (ex maybe Denver) and will also have lost back to back primetime games at home in Dec, that I think would cement the fact that the 2012 Pats are an Average team with no real playoff run chances

I think 11-5, losing to Houston or the 49ers and one other (possibility at Jets/Miami)

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

10-6.

This offense can't seem to put up the points needed against the top defenses. Especially defenses with stout front 7's. They lose to both San Fran and to Houston. Then they lose another random game (1 to the Jets, Rams, or Dolphins).

[SMU_Sox]

10-6.

This offense can't seem to put up the points needed against the top defenses. Especially defenses with stout front 7's. They lose to both San Fran and to Houston. Then they lose another random game (1 to the Jets, Rams, or Dolphins).

Come on then KFP, let's throw down for the Jimmy Fund. It's only $50. Let's make this fun.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Ya but that 2009 team really had zero offense. They had no tight ends like we do now. Moss was pretty much at the end and the only offense was Welker. There was also no running game as well. That team went 10-6 for a reason because Brady carried their asses.

That 2009 team was also being torn apart from the inside by lovely citizens Thomas and Springs, who were actively undermining the coaching staff.

There's no comparison IMO between that team and this one. That team was reprehensible. This one is just struggling and has a ton of young players not progressing. Equally frustrating, of course.

[SMU_Sox]

That 2009 team was also being torn apart from the inside by lovely citizens Thomas and Springs, who were actively undermining the coaching staff.

There's no comparison IMO between that team and this one. That team was reprehensible. This one is just struggling and has a ton of young players not progressing. Equally frustrating, of course.

Be patient SJH - things will turn around. They had slow starts in 2010 and 2011. It will be ok. Let's just revisit this conversation in 5 weeks or so. If I'm wrong I'll surgically remove my balls or something.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Be patient SJH - things will turn around. They had slow starts in 2010 and 2011. It will be ok. Let's just revisit this conversation in 5 weeks or so. If I'm wrong I'll surgically remove my balls or something.

Yeah we'll see. I'm tired of the same problems cropping up every single year.

And in 2011 they started 5-1. In 2010 they started 5-1. The start this year sucks compared to those two.

[SMU_Sox]

Yeah, let me rephrase then. They started 2-1, then 5-1, and then were 5-3 in 2011. In 2010 they got hammered by the Jets in week 2 and the board panicked (perhaps rightfully so at the time - things looked very worrisome and then Moss was gone). But yeah, it wasn't a prolonged slump in 2010. Still though - it looks like they will be 5-3 this season too after week 8.

Edited by SMU_Sox, 17 October 2012 - 11:41 AM.

[SoxFanInPdx]

Voted 10-6. I just don't see this secondary getting any better and I'm concerned that Brady can't consistantly be relied upon to make the right decisions when under pressure. I see them losing to the Niners, Texans and Rams.

[Salva135]

Voted 10-6. I just don't see this secondary getting any better and I'm concerned that Brady can't consistantly be relied upon to make the right decisions when under pressure. I see them losing to the Niners, Texans and Rams.

Did you ever think you would one day be typing that out? Either 9-7 or 10-6. There's not much evidence to suggest the secondary is going to get magically better aside from marginal improvement as the season progresses. I remember people looking at the list of QBs the Pats would be facing this season and feeling pretty confident about the lack of quality QBs they had to deal with. So much for that.