377 replies to this topic

[JMDurron]

As a I look across the league it appears that passing stats are down across the board. Granted 2011 was a historical season for QBs but I don't think anyone really thought that would trend down yet that is exactly what is happening this season. TD's are trending down, YDs are trending down and Y/A are trending way down. Perhaps it is unfair to expect Brady to even match last seasons #s when there appears to be a league wide adjustment favoring defense this season.

It's probably worth keeping in mind (both here and in the Cam Newton thread, for example) that these comparisons aren't just due to 2011 being "a historical season for QBs", but are also inflated due to 2011 being a historical season for lack of defensive preseason preparation due to the lockout. The QBs could be performing at precisely the same level that they were last season, but now opposing defenses are actually prepared for week 1 this time. That fact that this apparently makes no difference for the Patriots secondary does not mean that this is true for the league as a whole.

[Jettisoned]

How do we know that a lack of preparation didn't also hurt offenses last season?

[MarcSullivaFan]

How do we know that a lack of preparation didn't also hurt offenses last season?

Because of the historically high offensive output and the correspondingly horrible defense.
http://sportsillustr...x.html?mobile=n

[ZP1]

I've said it. I do not think he is a top 5 QB right now.

I don't think there's any reasoning with you at this point. People have brought up a shitload of statistics that all indicate that Brady has been playing at a top 5 elite level. I feel like all of your arguments in this thread boil down into the arguments people used for Tebow to start games, except reversed into reasons why Brady shouldn't start games.

Pro-Tebow people: Ignore all of Tebow's stats! Tebow is a winner! You start Tebow because he just wins games.

Your Anti-Brady Crusade: Tom Brady's stats don't matter! He just doesn't have it in him to make the team win like he used to! He's not enough of a winner to win the Patriots anymore Super Bowls!

It's the exact same mentality. It's people somehow getting an emotional feeling from watching a game, and then riding that emotional feeling and using it to shield themselves from any credible logic and statistics that get thrown their way. People got on that train for Tebow because there was something about his wins that resonated deeply on a completely non-rational level. Conversely, your entire "Brady can't win" war in this thread feels like you somehow took some of the recent losses (in where things didn't go Brady's way at the end) on some deep, emotional, non-rational level that now makes you ignore all relevant stats and declare Brady a loser.

If you ever once made fun of the pro-Tebow people, then you need to look in a mirror and see that you're applying that same Tebow-esque logic (that you may have mocked) in your current valuations of Tom Brady.

[Super Nomario]

http://espn.go.com/b...rotecting-leads


Among 17 players with at least 10 action plays in the final five minutes of regulation with a one-score lead, only four have a lower Total QBR than Brady since 2009. At the top of the list? Aaron Rodgers (97.4) and Matt Ryan (89.5).

______________________________________________________________________

I looked this up in the play-by-play. In these situations Brady is 17 of 37 for 140 yards. Only 10 of those 17 completions were "successful," meaning gaining 1/2 the yardage needed for a first down on first or second down or all needed yardage on 3rd or 4th down. Brady was also sacked twice and committed an intentional grounding penalty, and had a 5-yard scramble. He has not thrown a pick or a TD in this situation (though he does have a 1-yard TD run).

Brady has struggled in this situation this season (2 of 8 for 20 yards, 1 sack) and in '09 (7 of 13 for 33 yards) and '10 (4 of 9 for 32 yards, 1 sack). Last year he was actually pretty decent (4 of 7 for 55 yards, including 0 of 2 in the Super Bowl), doing most of that damage in the Miami and San Diego games, which the offense did successful "ice."

The part of this stat that is questionable is the "5 minutes left" timeframe. 5 minutes is a common endpoint, but it's still arbitrary, and it makes Brady look particularly bad. Between 4 and 5 minutes left, Brady is 6 of 18 for 61 yards. So it you make it "last four minutes," Brady has a much more palatable 11-of-19 for 79 yards. Between 5 and 6 minutes left, Brady is 5 of 7 for 56 yards. So he's definitely struggled, but "one score with five minutes left" makes him look worse than setting the endpoint at 6 or 4 minutes.

Ultimately the biggest thing to consider is regardless of what sample we're using, we're talking about the equivalent of a game's worth of throws across 3.5 seasons. We'd all feel better if Brady had delivered more in these situations, but I'm not sure it's enough to draw any conclusions from.

[ragnarok725]

I looked this up in the play-by-play. In these situations Brady is 17 of 37 for 140 yards. Only 10 of those 17 completions were "successful," meaning gaining 1/2 the yardage needed for a first down on first or second down or all needed yardage on 3rd or 4th down. Brady was also sacked twice and committed an intentional grounding penalty, and had a 5-yard scramble. He has not thrown a pick or a TD in this situation (though he does have a 1-yard TD run).

Brady has struggled in this situation this season (2 of 8 for 20 yards, 1 sack) and in '09 (7 of 13 for 33 yards) and '10 (4 of 9 for 32 yards, 1 sack). Last year he was actually pretty decent (4 of 7 for 55 yards, including 0 of 2 in the Super Bowl), doing most of that damage in the Miami and San Diego games, which the offense did successful "ice."

The part of this stat that is questionable is the "5 minutes left" timeframe. 5 minutes is a common endpoint, but it's still arbitrary, and it makes Brady look particularly bad. Between 4 and 5 minutes left, Brady is 6 of 18 for 61 yards. So it you make it "last four minutes," Brady has a much more palatable 11-of-19 for 79 yards. Between 5 and 6 minutes left, Brady is 5 of 7 for 56 yards. So he's definitely struggled, but "one score with five minutes left" makes him look worse than setting the endpoint at 6 or 4 minutes.

Ultimately the biggest thing to consider is regardless of what sample we're using, we're talking about the equivalent of a game's worth of throws across 3.5 seasons. We'd all feel better if Brady had delivered more in these situations, but I'm not sure it's enough to draw any conclusions from.

Also a thing to note here, I think, is how often in these games the Pats are playing with a lead and the opposing defense is selling out to stop a "successful" play, and Brady has the extra consideration of wanting to keep the clock moving if the play turns out to not be successful. I would imagine stats for most QBs within 5 minutes and ahead would be worse than QBs within 5 minutes and behind - as defenses would be yielding more "successful" plays for the opposite reasons.

[Super Nomario]

Good article on the crazy number of improbable comebacks this season:
http://www.nytimes.c...ef=sports&_r=1

[phragle]

Brady moved from third up to second in Total QBR after Sundays performance. He's still comfortably in first in all of ESPN's other advanced stats. That includes QB PAR (Points Above Replacement) which is essentially like WAR from baseball except without all the crappy UZR numbers added in that ruin the WAR.

What that all means is that - according ESPN's advanced stats - Brady has been the most valuable QB or the best per game, and has been the second best per attempt.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

[phragle]

Brady moved from third up to second in Total QBR after Sundays performance. He's still comfortably in first in all of ESPN's other advanced stats. That includes QB PAR (Points Above Replacement) which is essentially like WAR from baseball except without all the crappy UZR numbers added in that ruin the WAR.

What that all means is that - according ESPN's advanced stats - Brady has been the most valuable QB or the best per game, and has been the second best per attempt.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

He also passed Rogers in DYAR to move into first and passed Rogers and Lil Manning in DVOA to move into second.

http://www.footballo...rs.com/stats/qb

[phragle]

Come at the king, you best not miss.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

[Super Nomario]

He also passed Rogers in DYAR to move into first and passed Rogers and Lil Manning in DVOA to move into second.

http://www.footballo...rs.com/stats/qb

And per Advanced NFL Stats, #2 in Win Probability Added (behind Ryan), #1 in Expected Points Added, #1 in Success Rate, tied for #1 in Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (with Peyton).

Tom Brady is good? Who knew?

[rodderick]

I've said it. I do not think he is a top 5 QB right now.

This was less than a month ago. Wonder if Brady's cracked the top 5 yet.

[Ed Hillel]

This was less than a month ago. Wonder if Brady's cracked the top 5 yet.

He's moving in on Eli, but let's be fair and recognize that he was on his bye.

[phragle]

#1 in all categories.

http://www.footballo...rs.com/stats/qb

[Shelterdog]

#1 in all categories.

http://www.footballo...rs.com/stats/qb

Yes but he feels phantom pressure. Don't you get it!

[Bucknahs Bum Ankle]

Pfft, you obviously didn't look at QB Rushing DYAR and DVOA.

[drleather2001]

Yet he'll no doubt lose the MVP race to Manning, because Manning's impact on Denver has stood out in such relief.

[axx]

Hey, they actually did it this time!

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

Lock the thread!

[jsinger121]

Wrong thread

Edited by jsinger121, 02 December 2012 - 06:27 PM.

[SeoulSoxFan]

Lock the thread!

Season not over by a long shot. Plenty of opportunities to have old habits come back.

[Ed Hillel]

Season not over by a long shot. Plenty of opportunities to have old habits come back.

Or maybe there's no habit at all, and sometimes they just lose.

[richgedman'sghost]

Funny, we have not heard from Captain Coop lately. Wonder if the cat bit his tongue? LOl Brady did not have one of greatest games today, but the Pats still managed to win. How come when Brady plays well, his detractors seem to get awfully quiet? The Pats were able to go on an eight minute drive to close out the game today. The same trend applies with the defense. At the beginning of the year, the secondary gets off to a bad start and there are alarmists all over this board. Lately, the detractors of the defensive secondary have been mostly silenced. The same secondary that a certain poster said "has its ability coached out of them", has been stabilitized with the addition of Talib and D-Mac switching to safety. It seems that the same thing happens every year...The defense gets better as the season goes along and BB and Matt Patricia have a chance to diagnose and correct problems..

[TheMoralBully]

Funny, we have not heard from Captain Coop lately. Wonder if the cat bit his tongue? LOl Brady did not have one of greatest games today, but the Pats still managed to win. How come when Brady plays well, his detractors seem to get awfully quiet? The Pats were able to go on an eight minute drive to close out the game today. The same trend applies with the defense. At the beginning of the year, the secondary gets off to a bad start and there are alarmists all over this board. Lately, the detractors of the defensive secondary have been mostly silenced. The same secondary that a certain poster said "has its ability coached out of them", has been stabilitized with the addition of Talib and D-Mac switching to safety. It seems that the same thing happens every year...The defense gets better as the season goes along and BB and Matt Patricia have a chance to diagnose and correct problems..

Miami was in the bottom 3rd of the league in points scored and offensive DVOA coming into the game and the Jets are even worse. I never thought the second half collapse thing was legit and the Brady not a top 5 guy statements were ridiculous, but I'm not sure I'd consider the defense stabilized because of the last few weeks. It's definitely trending in the right direction.

[ZP1]

I've said it. I do not think he is a top 5 QB right now.

I love this post so much. Moreso because of the inevitable:

"BUT I WAS TALKING ABOUT AT THE TIME!!!11"

Even though it should have been obvious that it was the Patriots just being on the bad end of statistical probability for awhile.

[Toe Nash]

The game was already pretty much won after the Stallworth TD, but it's worth noting that the Pats again had two long clock-killing drives in the 3rd and 4th quarter to completely ice it. At the end of the 3rd-into the 4th, a 9 play drive taking up 4:13, and then a ten-play drive (eight runs) taking 4:24 on their next possession.

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

Lock the thread!

[Super Nomario]

Interesting article on NFL offenses going really conservative in the "4-minute drill" and failing to close out wins: http://www.coldhardf...-offense/21718/