283 replies to this topic

[Snodgrass'Muff]

In response to a post where I advocated pursuing Anibel Sanchez as one possible avenue toward a competitive team in 2013, a discussion about him started up and a suggestion for a thread on him and the free agent pitching crop came about. So I figured I'd lay out the posts that followed in order in their own thread.

I'll give each one it's own post. So bear with me for a few minutes.

Maybe this deserves its own thread, but I'm really skeptical of Anibal Sanchez, and I'd like to hear an argument for the other side of the coin. As I said earlier, after he joined the Tigers:

"Bad team" ERA: 34.2 IP, 1.04 ERA (vs CLE/KC, teams who scored the 2nd and 3rd fewest runs in the AL in 2012)
"Good team" ERA: 28.1 IP, 6.67 ERA (vs NYY/TOR/OAK/LAA)

(Note that I corrected those numbers the original post, where I accidentally used career stats instead of 2012 stats)

Are those samples too small to tell us anything? Because they definitely worry me, especially for a guy with a career 4.94 ERA against the Phillies and a 1.97 ERA against the Nationals.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 13 October 2012 - 02:41 PM.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

This is a really good point. Looking at his whole season, He had 82 innings against the bottom six teams he faced in terms of runs scored. Houston, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Kansas City, and the Phillies. In those games he had a 1.87 ERA. That's over 2 runs a game better than those teams averaged. Those teams averaged 3.99 runs per game. Against the 11 best teams he faced (TB, Atl, Min, Oak, Tor, SF, Ari, Stl, LAA, Mil, NYY) he had a 5.89 ERA in 99.1 innings. Those teams averaged 4.54 runs per game. So he was much better than average against the bottom teams, and worse than average against the good teams.

Edit: ERA updated. When pulling innings pitched into excel, need to change .1 innings to .33.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

If all pitchers did equally well against all teams, wouldn't we have a whole lot of .500 teams? I haven't tried looking into the numbers but isn't it logical that pitchers tend to do worse against the "better" teams? After all, they are "better" teams. Obviously, when looking at individual pitchers you'll see small-sample-size variations. The question, then, probably is whether a pitcher does less "worse" against "better" teams.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Yes, but that's not the point. The point is that the good teams did better than their average against Anibal, and the bad teams did worse than their average.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

"Good team" ERA: 28.1 IP, 6.67 ERA ---that is 21 earned runs and could be explained by a bad outing. I think the sample size is too small for it to be the main deciding factor.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

After dynamites post I looked at his starts for the enitre year and brokedown how he did vs the bottom 6 teams he faced vs the rest of the league. Dynamite offered a good starting point for something to look into. I certainly didn't crack any major code, but I took it one step beyond and it's pretty clear it was an issue all year long.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

If you believe in EV's theory that splits by batting order will identify pitchers who may struggle against better hititng lineups, there seems to be something there

Careers OPS against by batting order

1: 736
2: 667
3: 827
4: 806
5: 670
6: 783
7: 689
8: 755
9: 430

[Savin Hillbilly]

Careers OPS against by batting order

1: 736
2: 667
3: 827
4: 806
5: 670
6: 783
7: 689
8: 755
9: 430

2012 MLB:

1: .715
2: .714
3: .813
4: .812
5: .758
6: .742
7: .709
8: .675
9: .550

I'm not sure I see a pattern there. The #9 OPS for Sanchez is lower because he's spent most of his career in the NL. Other than that, the differences are mostly minor and seem pretty randomly distributed.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Hey, it's Van's theory, not mine.

[MoGator71]

Without doing a ton of digging I tend to agree with Otto on this one. Both the SSS point and that it's intuitive that better teams will tend to hit a pitcher better than worse teams. Not to say that I'm advocating for Sanchez, because the pitching market is likely to be weak as usual and somebody is likely to overpay him. I think I'd rather go the in-house route to fill the rotation out rather than go dipping into the FA/trade pool...unless we're talking about landing a legit ace, or at least a guy that we're confident will outperform at least one of Lester/Buchholz. And Sanchez isn't really that.

[PandaSox]

Big start for Anibal this afternoon against the Yankees. Earlier this year the Yankees absolutely battered him for 7 ER in just 4.0 IP, giving up 7 hits (2 for extra bases, including one double and one HR), 2 walks, and striking out just two.

Time to see if the Jekyll / Hyde pattern continues.

[curly2]

Anibal can channel Mo Vaughn after that one: "The price goes up every day."

[PandaSox]

Some other options that may come (slightly) cheaper or require shorter deals than Sanchez:

Jake Peavy

Season	Team	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
2011	White Sox	7	7	0	19	18	111.2	7.66	1.93	0.81	.317	63.9 %	38.5 %	7.6 %	4.92	3.21	3.52	3.0
2012	White Sox	11	12	0	32	32	219.0	7.97	2.01	1.11	.272	76.3 %	36.5 %	9.7 %	3.37	3.73	4.00	4.4

Anibal Sanchez

Season	Team	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
2009	Marlins	4	8	0	16	16	86.0	7.43	4.81	1.05	.290	78.6 %	41.9 %	10.2 %	3.87	4.60	4.58	0.8
2010	Marlins	13	12	0	32	32	195.0	7.25	3.23	0.46	.305	70.6 %	45.1 %	4.5 %	3.55	3.32	4.04	4.4
2011	Marlins	8	9	0	32	32	196.1	9.26	2.93	0.92	.310	75.0 %	44.3 %	10.4 %	3.67	3.35	3.25	3.8
2012	2 Teams	9	13	0	31	31	195.2	7.68	2.21	0.92	.310	70.2 %	46.4 %	10.7 %	3.86	3.53	3.60	3.8

Dan Haren

Season	Team	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
2009	Diamondbacks	14	10	0	33	33	229.1	8.75	1.49	1.06	.267	77.0 %	42.9 %	11.7 %	3.14	3.23	3.02	6.1
2010	2 Teams	12	12	0	35	35	235.0	8.27	2.07	1.19	.311	74.4 %	40.5 %	10.8 %	3.91	3.71	3.49	4.4
2011	Angels	16	10	0	35	34	238.1	7.25	1.25	0.76	.272	71.5 %	42.5 %	7.5 %	3.17	2.98	3.29	6.1
2012	Angels	12	13	0	30	30	176.2	7.23	1.94	1.43	.302	70.9 %	39.6 %	12.8 %	4.33	4.24	4.00	1.8

Shaun Marcum

Season	Team	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
2010	Blue Jays	13	8	0	31	31	195.1	7.60	1.98	1.11	.279	74.3 %	38.4 %	9.6 %	3.64	3.74	3.71	3.6
2011	Brewers	13	7	0	33	33	200.2	7.09	2.56	0.99	.261	73.6 %	37.2 %	8.7 %	3.54	3.73	3.89	2.8
2012	Brewers	7	4	0	21	21	124.0	7.91	2.98	1.16	.280	75.0 %	35.4 %	10.6 %	3.70	4.10	4.21	1.4

Thoughts?

[bosockboy]

Not that I'm advocating it, but I'm surprised no one has mentioned Kyle Lohse. He was pretty sensational this year and generally has been when healthy since Duncan got ahold of him. He is with Boras, so he's probably getting 5/60 or thereabouts, but thought he was at least worth mentioning.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I'd make Marcum the #1 target. Throws strikes, past success in the division, and could be fairly reasonably priced. I like McCarthy a lot too, but I'm unclear what his prognosis is after that brutal injury. Anyone know

Haren is attractive too, potential pillow contract?

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 14 October 2012 - 08:31 PM.

[maufman]

The White Sox have a $22mm option on Peavy for 2013 with a $4mm buyout. If they're inclined to cut bait, can we offer them a token prospect for him, or is it too late for that?

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Not that I'm advocating it, but I'm surprised no one has mentioned Kyle Lohse. He was pretty sensational this year and generally has been when healthy since Duncan got ahold of him. He is with Boras, so he's probably getting 5/60 or thereabouts, but thought he was at least worth mentioning.

Lohse is 34. Unless Boras is actually the devil incarnate, as suspected by many, he's not getting a 5 year deal.

[saintnick912]

Not a FA, but I know the Phillies appear to be in a similar situation to the Sox circa last August in terms of long term deals and being up against the luxury tax limit. Is there any likelihood that they would deal Cliff Lee for a reasonable return? He has 3 years left, plus a 4th year option with a buyout which would put him into his "age 37" season. He hasn't pitched under 200 innings since a disastrous 2007 season. He has done well in a number of hitters environments (TEX, PHI), and been mixed in the post season (small samples). I think this is a case where the Sox could exercise their new found payroll space to add an elite player.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Not a FA, but I know the Phillies appear to be in a similar situation to the Sox circa last August in terms of long term deals and being up against the luxury tax limit. Is there any likelihood that they would deal Cliff Lee for a reasonable return? He has 3 years left, plus a 4th year option with a buyout which would put him into his "age 37" season. He hasn't pitched under 200 innings since a disastrous 2007 season. He has done well in a number of hitters environments (TEX, PHI), and been mixed in the post season (small samples). I think this is a case where the Sox could exercise their new found payroll space to add an elite player.

Based on their actions In July/August, it appears the Phillies are holding out for a blockbuster offer for Lee. They had opportunity to just let him and his bloated contract go through waivers and chose to play hardball instead. I don't think a team in the Red Sox position should be emptying their clip of prospects on a guy they'll be paying more for per year than anyone in franchise history. Maybe as a last piece to a team that is "one piece away", but not for a team rebuilding from a 69 win season.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Lee worries me a little bit. His HR/FB rate has jumped up in each of the last two years and while, yes, there is some random variation in there and yes, park factors can account for some of it, the jump is a bit stark going from 6.3 to 11.8 between 2010 and 2012. This has coincided with a fairly significant drop in fastball usage from 63.4% to 53.5% and then 54.3% in 2012. This may have been a conscious decision based on his move back to the NL and possibly the park he was moving into in Philly. He spent part of 2009 in Philly as well and his FB usage dropped from 70.1% to 61.4%. It wouldn't be an unreasonable assumption to guess that the drop was weighed heavily by his time in Philly. Additionally, his fastball velocity has remained consistent which lowers the chances that his shying away from the fastball is a reaction to diminished stuff or a loss of confidence in the pitch. When you factor in the jump in curves and change ups, you can see further evidence that it was a concerted effort to take advantage of his new environment (and NL hitters).

So my concern is minimal, even if it's gnawing at the back of my mind. Add in the fact that his FIP and xFIP were right in line with his ERA last year (unsurprisingly considering his BABIP was .309) and that his impressive ability to avoid walking batters has continued everywhere he's stopped and I suppose I'm just being nit picky with the comment on his HR/FB rates. Of course, the other side of this scenario is why would Philly look to move him if they hope to compete in the next few years? Wouldn't they be better off moving Halladay who took a step back nearly across the board in 2012?

[PandaSox]

I'd make Marcum the #1 target. Throws strikes, past success in the division, and could be fairly reasonably priced. I like McCarthy a lot too, but I'm unclear what his prognosis is after that brutal injury. Anyone know

Haren is attractive too, potential pillow contract?

Marcum would be a solid pick for me as well. Underrated guy, has pitched well in the AL East, and has been out of the spotlight for most of the past year or more since the Lawrie trade.

I also really like Dan Haren. Good, solid analysis of the Haren situation here at Over the Monster, one of my favorite Sox blogs. An additional post advocates immediate action.

[bd11]

The White Sox have a $22mm option on Peavy for 2013 with a $4mm buyout. If they're inclined to cut bait, can we offer them a token prospect for him, or is it too late for that?

Why would you pay that amount for Peavy and give up a prospect?

[Cumberland Blues]

You don't give them a real prospect - I thnk the idea there is you toss the ChiSox a minor league roster filler to save them the $4M buyout and you don't have to compete for him as a FA. No idea why the ChiSox would do this tho. Yeah, that's an expensive deal, but it's only 1yr for a guy who's still pretty darn good.

[The Gray Eagle]

That scenario would make a lot more sense to do for Dan Haren, who has a $15.5 million team option with a $3.5 million buyout. If the Angels aren't going to pick up the option (and reportedly they aren't) then they would be better off swapping Haren to us for a nothing prospect-- they could save $3.5 million that way. We'd get a good pitcher on a pricy one-year deal, but it's only one year. That's exactly the kind of deal we should be looking to make.

[PandaSox]

That scenario would make a lot more sense to do for Dan Haren, who has a $15.5 million team option with a $3.5 million buyout. If the Angels aren't going to pick up the option (and reportedly they aren't) then they would be better off swapping Haren to us for a nothing prospect-- they could save $3.5 million that way. We'd get a good pitcher on a pricy one-year deal, but it's only one year. That's exactly the kind of deal we should be looking to make.

If the Angels are likely to decline Haren's option for next year, I would actually prefer to just sign him on the open market. Since our first-round pick is protected and we have tons of payroll space, a three to four-year deal at $13 million or so AAV would likely lock Haren up through the end of his useful pitching life and give us a solid #2 with the upside of a #1, which he clearly was in Arizona (and at times) LAAoA.

The market for experienced free agent pitchers is relatively strong this year, and given our financial flexibility and protected draft selection, this is the perfect year to make this kind of signing.

[The Gray Eagle]

I'd much rather have a guy at his age coming off a down season on a one-year deal than guarantee him something like $60 million over 4 years, if you can actually get him to agree to sign here.

On a one-year deal, if he does well, then maybe work out an extension. If he does poorly, let him walk. Somewhere in between, or he won't come back at a decent price, then make him a qualifying offer and get a draft pick.

We should be signing several other free agents anyway, including another SP and an OF, so the protected pick part shouldn't enter into it.

I'd much rather get him for sure on a one-year deal at $15 million than have to hope to beat every other team's offer on the open market.

[dynomite]

We should be signing several other free agents anyway, including another SP and an OF, so the protected pick part shouldn't enter into it.

I'd much rather get him for sure on a one-year deal at $15 million than have to hope to beat every other team's offer on the open market.

Completely agreed. Getting Haren and Morneau for (in essence) a joint 1 year/$30 million deal would be a perfect stopgap, filling the holes at SP3 and 1B in 2013 without a) giving long years to players over 30 or b) blocking any of the youth movement from AAA long-term.

Edited by dynomite, 15 October 2012 - 04:50 PM.

[PandaSox]

Over the Monster makes a great point about Sanchez - Detroit would NOT receive draft pick compensation from the Sox if they were to sign him, since he was traded midseason.

A short writeup that expresses many of the points made upthread, but might be worth a second read:

Anibal Sanchez: Sanchez can't be given a qualifying offer, as the Marlins traded him to the Tigers mid-season. That's good news for the Red Sox, who will now have a chance to re-acquire the pitcher they dealt to the then-Florida Marlins over half-a-decade ago. Sanchez has averaged 196 innings per year over the last three, with a 109 ERA+. He struck out nearly three times as many batters as he walked in that stretch, and while he's never hit the 200-inning mark, he's hit at least 31 starts in each of those campaigns.
As a soon-to-be 29-year-old, Sanchez will almost certainly pull in a three- or four-year contract, but for his likely price -- probably somewhere in the $9-to-$12 million range in average annual value -- there's nothing wrong with that. Many Red Sox fans are loathe to spend money on anything but a short-term pillow contract, but sometimes you just need to pay for performance. Sanchez has been consistent, he's been healthy for the last three seasons, and is a candidate to earn every cent of even a four-year, $48 million contract.

Edited by PandaSox, 17 October 2012 - 11:58 AM.

[C4CRVT]

What kind of deal is Greinke going to get? Three's something to be said (IMO) for the guy with the highest ceiling. His FA is losing a bit of velocity per year but his other preiferals look very good and his GB% has been rising solidly over the past few years.

[maufman]

What kind of deal is Greinke going to get? Three's something to be said (IMO) for the guy with the highest ceiling. His FA is losing a bit of velocity per year but his other preiferals look very good and his GB% has been rising solidly over the past few years.

Top 10 in SIERA, 2010-12 (note this excludes Greinke's 2009 Cy Young season)

1. Cliff Lee
2. Roy Halladay
3. Cole Hamels
4. Clayton Kershaw
5. Felix Hernandez
6. Adam Wainwright
7. Justin Verlander
8. Zack Greinke
9. C.C. Sabathia
10. James Shields

Drop 2010 out of the equation, and Greinke skyrockets to 2nd, trailing only Lee (with Kershaw, Verlander, and Halladay rounding out the top five).

Greinke is one of the ten best pitchers in baseball and will be 29 years old in 2013.

I'm assuming someone will complete ignore his past mental-health issues and give Greinke 6/120, but if his price drops significantly below that level, the Sox should absolutely inquire.

[bosox79]

Can Anibal realistically be had at 3/36 4/48 tho? if so its a no brainer imo. Anibal Lester at last. I also like the Peavy/Haren 1 year idea. It makes too much sense.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Can Anibal realistically be had at 3/36 4/48 tho?

I'm crossing my fingers that the market hasn't entirely caught up to the uselessness of pitcher W/L numbers, so that his career 48-51 and 2012 9-13 will hold his price tag down. 3/36 does seem a bit too team-friendly to be real. But 4/48 sounds at least possible.

[Infield Infidel]

Can Anibal realistically be had at 3/36 4/48 tho? if so its a no brainer imo. Anibal Lester at last. I also like the Peavy/Haren 1 year idea. It makes too much sense.

Although Greinke is elite, he'll probably cost more than Sanchez and Peavy combined. We have no idea what we will get out of Lackey, So I'd rather we go for two starters than pay over $100m on Greinke, and that's not even considering his mental issues.

I don't think Sanchez will be that cheap, though but if he can be had at less than 4/60, and Peavy on a 1/15 with a club option, we'd have a pretty solid rotation

Sanchez
Lester
Peavy
Buchholz
Dubront/Lackey

[maufman]

The only way Peavy will be on a one-year deal is if the Chisox pick up his option. With his injury history, and coming off his best season in a long time, he'd be a fool not to grab the biggest pile of guaranteed money that's tossed his way.

I'm curious how much Anibal's past injury woes (including a torn labrum) will hold down his price. I agree he's a lot more interesting at 3/36 than at 4/48.

[BannedbyNYYFans.com]

I'm surprised Hiroki Kuroda isn't getting more love. Yeah, he'll be 38 next season but he's averaged 206 IP the past three seasons and put up a 1.165 WHIP and 3.32 ERA in the AL East this year. Coming off a season making $10M, he will probably want similar money but I'd have to think another one year deal would be a consideration for him and his agent.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I have to imagine the Yankees will make him a qualifying offer. Personally I have no problem giving up a pick for the right guy but for a 38 year old SP on a one year deal for a team likely headed no where, I think that'd be a poor decision. If they don't tender him, by all means ink him.

(null)

[judyb]

The only way Peavy will be on a one-year deal is if the Chisox pick up his option. With his injury history, and coming off his best season in a long time, he'd be a fool not to grab the biggest pile of guaranteed money that's tossed his way.

I'm curious how much Anibal's past injury woes (including a torn labrum) will hold down his price. I agree he's a lot more interesting at 3/36 than at 4/48.

I think he's still plenty interesting at 4/48, I just don't see him not getting an offer closer to 5/70.

[PandaSox]

I have to imagine the Yankees will make him a qualifying offer. Personally I have no problem giving up a pick for the right guy but for a 38 year old SP on a one year deal for a team likely headed no where, I think that'd be a poor decision. If they don't tender him, by all means ink him.

(null)

Right - giving up that second-round draft pick to the Yankees during a rebuilding period would not make sense. That's why I didn't list Kuroda as an option up above - at least Sanchez wouldn't cost us draft compensation.

[maufman]

I think he's still plenty interesting at 4/48, I just don't see him not getting an offer closer to 5/70.

He's a classic league-average innings eater. He might match the $55mm that Gil Meche got several years back, but I'll be surprised if he approaches $70mm. Teams that want to bet big on pitching will go after Greinke; teams looking for league-average help can bid on Ryan Dempster, Edwin Jackson, Francisco Liriano, Kyle Lohse and (possibly) Jake Peavy in addition to Sanchez. The lack of draft-pick compensation helps Sanchez's value, but Dempster and Liriano are in the same boat, and in any case that's only going to affect offers marginally.

Edited by maufman, 17 October 2012 - 04:59 PM.

[mabrowndog]

The only way Peavy will be on a one-year deal is if the Chisox pick up his option.

He also has a limited no-trade clause allowing him to block moves to 8 teams this year. If the Red Sox are on his blacklist, we can forget about this concept.

[BannedbyNYYFans.com]

I have to imagine the Yankees will make him a qualifying offer. Personally I have no problem giving up a pick for the right guy but for a 38 year old SP on a one year deal for a team likely headed no where, I think that'd be a poor decision. If they don't tender him, by all means ink him.

I forgot they would have to give up the 2nd rounder. I keep thinking that because they have a protected pick it applies to their whole draft when it's only the first rounder.

[PandaSox]

MLBTradeRumors is reporting that John Lannan is likely to be non-tendered this offseason. A good pickup for the Sox?

[Savin Hillbilly]

He's a classic league-average innings eater.

Out of 132 major league pitchers with qualifying innings, how many do you think have a lower FIP over the past three years than Sanchez?

Spoiler

17

How many of those guys have thrown as many innings as Sanchez?

Spoiler

12

Innings-eater, yes; league-average, no.

[maufman]

Out of 132 major league pitchers with qualifying innings, how many do you think have a lower FIP over the past three years than Sanchez?

Spoiler

17

How many of those guys have thrown as many innings as Sanchez?

Spoiler

12

Innings-eater, yes; league-average, no.

How are you defining "qualifying innings?" Only 66 pitchers had 480 IP total from 2010-12; of those, 21 had a better SIERA than Sanchez (3.67) over that span. So yes, I guess I overstated the case by calling him "league average."

[Savin Hillbilly]

How are you defining "qualifying innings?"

I'm using Fangraphs' definition. Apparently it's 100 IP/year, since the lowest IP total among those 132 pitchers is 300.

But even by your 160-inning standard, he's in the top third, so, yeah, above average by any measure.

[HriniakPosterChild]

He also has a limited no-trade clause allowing him to block moves to 8 teams this year. If the Red Sox are on his blacklist, we can forget about this concept.

Not necessarily. Quite often the list of teams is constructed to give the player the chance to get some compensation in case of a trade. It's not a list of "places I'd refuse to go," but "I'll go to these places if you make it worth my while."

[gammoseditor]

Not necessarily. Quite often the list of teams is constructed to give the player the chance to get some compensation in case of a trade. It's not a list of "places I'd refuse to go," but "I'll go to these places if you make it worth my while."

Yes, but in Peavy's case his option is going to be to come here on a 1 year 22 million deal or get 4 million and become a free agent. I don't see the Red Sox kicking in more over the 22 million and there's no reason Peavy wouldn't want to be a free agent.

[maufman]

Yes, but in Peavy's case his option is going to be to come here on a 1 year 22 million deal or get 4 million and become a free agent. I don't see the Red Sox kicking in more over the 22 million and there's no reason Peavy wouldn't want to be a free agent.

The Sox could agree not to make Peavy a qualifying offer after the season, but I agree that's not enough to persuade Peavy if he thinks the alternative is to have the Chisox decline the option.

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

I'd be in favor of Brandon McCarthy. There was an article I read about him where he talked about simplifying things and just concentrating on things like his walk rate. He doesn't strike a lot of people out, but I think he could be a better pitcher than Mark Buehrle, but for less money.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I don't see anything in McCarthy that suggests he's likely to be a top of the rotation type starter. Never mind a top of the rotation starter in the AL East. Don't the Sox already have a bunch of guys who project to be middle of the rotation to average with Doubront and Lackey on the low end of that spectrum and Buchholz on the high end? Even Lester could end up being that kind of pitcher next year. If the Sox are looking to pick up a starter in free agency, I'd hope they would be targeting Sanchez or Jackson as they seems like the best two bets to come in and be the best pitcher on the roster.

I'd even prefer to see them trade for Peavy or even take a shot at Haren rebounding before seeing them grab McCarthy as a stabilizing force in the rotation. If you just meant to add him as middle of the rotation depth, I'm not sure I'd agree with that as a terribly good use of resources unless they have a trade lined up involving someone like Doubront that can address another area of need (LF, RF, SS, 1B, SU, CL).