33 replies to this topic

[Marbleheader]

With the season winding down, the Red Sox have all but assured themselves a top 10 pick in next year's draft. If the season ended today, the top 10 would look like this:

Team GB
1. Houston Astros ----
2. Chicago Cubs 11
3. Colorado Rockies 12
4. Minnesota Twins 14
5. Cleveland Indians 14
6. Miami Marlins 18
7. Boston Red Sox 19
8. Toronto Blue Jays 19.5
9. Kansas City Royals 19.5
10. New York Mets 20
-------
11. Seattle Mariners 23
11. San Diego Padres 23

The top 15 or so candidates for next years draft are:

1. Mark Appel RHP/Stanford
2. Austin Meadows, OF/Grayson HS
3. Ryne Stanek RHP/Arkansas
4. Jeremy Martinez C/Mater Dei HS
5. Sean Manea LHP/Indiana St
6. Clinton Hollon RHP/Woodfork County HS
7. Austin Wilson OF/Stanford
8. Karsten Whitson RHP/Florida
9. Clint Frazier OF/ Loganville HS
10. Kris Bryant 3B/San Diego
11. Oscar Mercado SS/Gaither HS
12. Willie Abreu OF/Mater HS
13. Bobby Wahl RHP/Ole Miss
14. Colin Moran 3B/NC
15. Keegan Thompson RHP Cullman HS



This is just a rough list and is subject to change, but this is the approximate pool of players the Sox will have on the board when the draft starts. Feel free to add your scouting reports, videoes and two cents about who you'd most like to see as the next first round pick.

[LeoCarrillo]

Sean Manaea. The kid tore up the Cape league last summer, earning all the top awards (pitcher and player). He went 5-1 with a 1.22 ERA, fanning 85 in 51.2 innings. Said to be "loose and effortless" on the mound and hits 94 on the gun. Looks like a young, lefty Masterson on video.

We could hope for Chris Sale redux (Cape's top pitcher in '09). Both lefties around 6-5 or 6-6, though Manaea's not as reedy. Stuff-wise, sounds like Manaea has more power potential and less awesome breaking stuff than Sale.

Edited by LeoCarrillo, 15 September 2012 - 09:30 AM.

[97redsoxfan]

if we are lucky Appel will fall to us but i doubt it but that would be great since nobody wants to pay him the money but im sure the Sox would. otherwise i think we take Clint Frazier he could be our solution in Left or Right Field in maybe 3 or 4 years

[jsinger121]

if we are lucky Appel will fall to us but i doubt it but that would be great since nobody wants to pay him the money but im sure the Sox would. otherwise i think we take Clint Frazier he could be our solution in Left or Right Field in maybe 3 or 4 years

Cubs will pay.

[mabrowndog]

With the season winding down, the Red Sox have all but assured themselves a top 10 pick in next year's draft.

The Pirates automatically get the #9 pick this year (in addition to their own pick) as compensation for failing to sign Mark Appel last year. Because of that, the top 11 picks (including PIT's compensatory selection) are protected during this winter's free agency signings.

And I agree with Singer -- the Cubs won't let money get in the way of paying Appel if that's the guy Theo wants, and if the Astros pass on him I believe he'll be Chicago's pick.

If Whitson lasts until the Sox' selection (and I doubt he will), I think they'll grab him. I'd also add UCLA RHSP Ryan Plutko as a dark horse if they're picking #8 or lower.

[Marbleheader]

With last night's win, the Sox are currently slated to pick 10th (including Pit at 9) with Toronto 0.5 gb and Seattle 3 gb.

[Tyrone Biggums]

The book on Clint Frazier gets me excited, however theres always a chance that he ends up going top 5 thus leaving us with the options of guys like Bryant or Whitson. I think this team needs to take the best player on the board and not get into the mode of drafting to fill a need. I don't think there has been a draft for this team more critical than this one, at least in recent memory.

[Marbleheader]

With 10 games to go:

Draft order as of 9/20/12

Pick	Team	W	L	W%	GB
1	Houston Astros	49	102	0.325	0
2	Colorado Rockies	58	92	0.387	9.5
3	Chicago Cubs	59	92	0.391	10
4	Cleveland Indians	62	89	0.411	13
5	Minnesota Twins	62	88	0.413	13.5
6	Miami Marlins	66	85	0.437	17
7	Toronto Blue Jays	66	83	0.443	18
8	Boston Red Sox	68	84	0.447	18.5
9	Pittsburgh Pirates [1]
10	New York Mets	67	83	0.447	18.5
11	Kansas City Royals	69	81	0.46	20.5

remaining;

5 vs Bal
2 vs TB
3 vs NYY

[RedOctober3829]

Stay away from Karsten Whitson. A player on our team was his roommate at the Cape and he told me his arm is hanging by a thread. He was sent back to Florida this summer with arm trouble. Whitson really should have signed when he was drafted out of high school.

[SouthernBoSox]

Holy shit the Astros were bad this year.

[JakeRae]

The Mets are now at 71 wins, KC at 70, Boston at 69, Toronto at 68, and Miami at 66. Miami has pretty much locked up finishing below Boston but, with Toronto closing the season against the Twins, the 7th pick is still within reach.

[bill]

Sean Manaea. The kid tore up the Cape league last summer, earning all the top awards (pitcher and player). He went 5-1 with a 1.22 ERA, fanning 85 in 51.2 innings. Said to be "loose and effortless" on the mound and hits 94 on the gun. Looks like a young, lefty Masterson on video.

We could hope for Chris Sale redux (Cape's top pitcher in '09). Both lefties around 6-5 or 6-6, though Manaea's not as reedy. Stuff-wise, sounds like Manaea has more power potential and less awesome breaking stuff than Sale.

Looking at the scouting reports for the upcoming draft, Manea stood out for me too. In the Sept 12 BA prospects chat (Callis is a must read and chats and ask BA are free) he recently said at this moment he wouldn't be surprised to see the top 3 college arms, Appel, Stanek, and Manea, go 1,2,3. That was disappointing to read.

Edited by bill, 27 September 2012 - 03:41 PM.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Quick notes on BA's top 15, plus five guys I like:

Appel - I wouldn't have signed either. He won't get past the top three picks. Front line ML arm w/A-S caliber stuff. 3-digit heater w/life & out pitch, knee-buckling CB, throws CU with FB arm speed.
Stanek - No thanks. Ugly arm action; see him as a reliever.
Manaea - Embarrassing that I haven't seen him considering he was only an hour and a half away this Spring. Not likely to be around when the Sox pick.
Meadows - He's either a LF/1B down the road. Pass.
Moran- He can swing it, but nowhere near as good of hitter as Ackley and I don't think he'll stick at 3B.
Bryant - Big, physical, 3B/1B, plus to plus-plus power down the road. I wouldn't complain with the pick.
Crawford - Competitor, strong, durable. Three potential quality pitches. Live FB, tight CB and effective CU.
Frazier - Didn't get a chance to make it up to UA to see Frazier. But I like what I hear.
Ball - high ceiling, advanced mound presence for age, confident.
McGuire - Solid defender. Plus arm, 1.85 pop. See him as everyday ML starter potential.
Bobby Wahl - Strong arm, good feel for CU. FB/SL need consistency. Big spring for him.
Aaron Judge - Corner outfielder, very physical. Ball jumps off bat big time in BP, could see middle of the order type. Decent defender, good arm.
Austin WIlson - Five tool upside, but the bat has a long ways to go. Not someone I'd gamble on.
Trevor Williams - Crafty, 3 pitch mix. Competitor, improving. But probably just a middle reliever in ML.
Oscar Mercado - Don't know much about him other than what BA says: slick fielder, line drive potential

Outside of Appel, my top five (based on ceiling) would be:

Dylan Covey, rhp, U San Diego - Chance to be frontline starter in show. Has all the pitches to win there now, just needs to refine what he has. Looks like a big leaguer on mound.
Karsten Whitson, rhp, U Florida - Frontline stuff. Has an idea w/ SL, attention getter.
Dale Carey, CF, U Miami - All-Star pot. Very proj phys. Ath with BB tools.
Ryan Eades, rhp, LSU - Quality, pwr arm w/ plus pitchability & solid command of the FB. Attacks hitters & pounds K zone w/ quality 4-pitch mix. Just needs to firm up offspd stuff.
Scott Frazier, rhp, Pepperdine - Improved pitchability & mound presence. Ideal phys proj. Excel student, 4.2 GPA. Frontline, number 2-3 starter pot.

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 27 September 2012 - 04:45 PM.

[TimScribble]

Sox gotta finish in the Bottom 9 to get a protected pick.

http://www.mlbtrader...cted-picks.html

[j44thor]

Does anyone know if the draft this year or next year should be stronger 1-10?

Reason I ask is that it if next season should be stronger doesn't it almost make sense to draft a tough sign in the 1st and roll the pick for a year. You still get that draft slot allotment so you would be able to take some tough signs in later rounds and use the 1st rd slot $$ on those players and still have a top 10 pick next year.

This would also be a hedge in case they want to explore FA next off-season which looks like a much stronger FA class and with any amount of luck the Sox will not have another protected pick next year.

[Dummy Hoy]

It was my understanding that this was a pretty week draft, especially after the 5-6 pick. Not sure about 2014, but it's likely to be a deeper and more top heavy draft.

[finnVT]

Don't you lose the allotment money if you don't sign a player in that slot? That's why teams have to draft under-slot guys if they want to re-allocate, rather than simply passing on those picks (well, drafting someone they have no intention of signing). Or so I thought...

[Cumberland Blues]

Reason I ask is that it if next season should be stronger doesn't it almost make sense to draft a tough sign in the 1st and roll the pick for a year. You still get that draft slot allotment so you would be able to take some tough signs in later rounds and use the 1st rd slot $$ on those players and still have a top 10 pick next year.

If you don't sign the pick, you don't get to use the slot money in later rounds.

[LeoCarrillo]

This would also be a hedge in case they want to explore FA next off-season which looks like a much stronger FA class and with any amount of luck the Sox will not have another protected pick next year.

Good call. And I think the best part of your devious strategy is the FA delay to 2014. If you don't want Hamilton, Greinke and the rest, push it a year.

But is this prohibited by MLB? Seems too good an idea to be true.

[JakeRae]

Does anyone know if the draft this year or next year should be stronger 1-10?

Reason I ask is that it if next season should be stronger doesn't it almost make sense to draft a tough sign in the 1st and roll the pick for a year. You still get that draft slot allotment so you would be able to take some tough signs in later rounds and use the 1st rd slot $$ on those players and still have a top 10 pick next year.

This would also be a hedge in case they want to explore FA next off-season which looks like a much stronger FA class and with any amount of luck the Sox will not have another protected pick next year.

Maybe. But, first, you don't get to keep the money. If you did, no one would ever sign their 1st pick and it would break the system. So, the only advantage to moving back a year is shifting draft classes. Second, there is no hedge. The opportunity cost of losing your 1st round pick by signing a FA is unchanged by having another 1st round pick that you won't lose because you didn't use it the year before.

So, the calculation is, is it worth deferring a year and losing a slot to have the opportunity to draft from the 2014 class instead of 2013. It might be, but probably not.

Lastly, there really shouldn't be such a thing as a tough sign in the top 10 anymore. With the current slotting system, if you are the 7th pick, playing hardball is much more likely to earn you much less the next time you get drafted than it is to get you more money. If a top 5 talent is available who is suspected to be a tough sign, it is almost certainly worth drafting them, sticking to slot, and playing chicken with them. But, that's consistent with a best available talent approach and the realities of the slotting system. 1st round picks have absolutely no leverage anymore and you should never be afraid to take the best talent in the 1st round because of signability issues.

[LostinNJ]

It's never a good idea to outsmart yourself. The idea of tanking in this year's draft because next year's class might be stronger is too clever to be good. Since it's possible to get an excellent player in the 7th or 8th or 10th round, it seems silly to throw away the 7th or 8th or 10th pick in the first round.

[LeoCarrillo]

Second, there is no hedge. The opportunity cost of losing your 1st round pick by signing a FA is unchanged by having another 1st round pick that you won't lose because you didn't use it the year before.

I'm not sure if this is what you're saying, but to add to the argument against . . . if the Sox play as expected next year (which is so-so to WC contender), they'll have something like the 18th-20th pick in the 2014 first round. And they'd lose that one for a Qualifying Offer free agent (the next available after the protected holdover). Whereas this year, it'd be their second-round pick.

Edited by LeoCarrillo, 30 September 2012 - 11:17 PM.

[JakeRae]

I'm not sure if this is what you're saying, but to add to the argument against . . . if the Sox play as expected next year (which is so-so to WC contender), they'll have something like the 18th-20th pick in the 2014 first round. And they'd lose that one for a Qualifying Offer free agent (the next available after the protected holdover). Whereas this year, it'd be their second-round pick.

I'm not going to get into our very different expectations for the 2013 team, but that's not at all what I'm saying.

I was responding to the idea that failing to sign the 1st round pick this year, thus having that pick next year, acts as a hedge against losing next year's 1st round pick via signing a FA next offseason. It doesn't. The Red Sox will almost certainly have an unprotected pick next year in the 1st round. If they sign a free agent who has been extended a qualifying offer, they will lose that pick. If they fail to sign their 1st round pick this year and still have it next year, they will lose the exact same pick (actually, one slot lower, but that's a fairly inconsequential difference). It's not a hedge because whether or not the protected 1st round pick is used this year or next, it has absolutely no impact on the opportunity cost calculation for signing a free agent where the 1st round pick would be lost next year.

You are correct that there is a lower opportunity cost this season because the first round pick is protected. It's unfortunate that the FA class sucks this year.

[Rough Carrigan]

Looks like they're locked into the 7th or 8th worst record slots now.

[JakeRae]

6-9 are all still possible at this moment in time.

[Marbleheader]

Blue Jays win,  pretty much sealing last place for Boston. First time since 1992.

[JakeRae]

Only two options remaining. A Miami win and Boston loss gets us the 6th pick. Otherwise, 7th.

[bill]

It was my understanding that this was a pretty week draft, especially after the 5-6 pick. Not sure about 2014, but it's likely to be a deeper and more top heavy draft.

This should be a strong bargaining position for the Sox in negotiations. If it is not a player they absolutely love, they could punt the pick to 2014 when a better player will be available. If the player takes a below slot offer, you have money for a high school tough sign later. If the Sox pick doesn't like the offer, he faces the prospect of being taken lower the next year in a deeper draft and getting less money along with losing a year of developement. The strength of the draft should determine your bonus offers.

[SinCitySoxFan1973]

2014 top HS prospect Drew Ward is 95% to enter ’13’s draft:

http://thedailyelkcitian.com/elk-city-oklahoma-area-sports-schools/1901-drew-ward-q95-percent-chanceq-he-will-graduate-early-enter-2013-mlb-draft

[TheGoldenGreek33]

2014 top HS prospect Drew Ward is 95% to enter ’13’s draft:

http://thedailyelkcitian.com/elk-city-oklahoma-area-sports-schools/1901-drew-ward-q95-percent-chanceq-he-will-graduate-early-enter-2013-mlb-draft

Well, after he earns a GED, he'd have to then go play JuCo ball first before being eligible for the draft.

[Bigpupp]

Well, after he earns a GED, he'd have to then go play JuCo ball first before being eligible for the draft.

The article says he is getting his diploma. Why would he have to then get his GED and go to college?

[TheGoldenGreek33]

The article says he is getting his diploma. Why would he have to then get his GED and go to college?

Callis:

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisBA
Checked w/MLB, and GED won't make him draft-eligible.@mikekanen20: if the rumors are true, where does Drew Ward fit in the 2013 #mlbdraft?

link

He also tweets that "MLB's HS rule says eligible w/grad class unless can't play b/c too old, attended too many semesters or played too many seasons."

edit: ...

keithlaw ‏@keithlaw
Yes. Has to go to JC. Not a first rounder though. "@willinghamandch:@keithlaw think drew ward ends up in 2013 class?...

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 09 October 2012 - 11:52 PM.

[nighthob]

The MLB draft might not allow sub-18 year olds into the draft, but people graduate from high school in three years all the time (I graduated after three and half years myself). He isn't getting a GED, he's finishing the necessary credits to graduate from high school.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

The MLB draft might not allow sub-18 year olds into the draft, but people graduate from high school in three years all the time (I graduated after three and half years myself). He isn't getting a GED, he's finishing the necessary credits to graduate from high school.

That's all fine and dandy. But, MLB rules say you must either go in with your projected draft class, or graduate early/earn a GED and then play JuCo.