31 replies to this topic

[MakMan44]

http://www.cbssports...r-his-situation

So sayith Heyman


Personally I think it's idiotic to pass up a 14$ mill salary but that's just me. If he does though, makes it incredibly easy for the Yankees to offer him the qualifying offer of 13$ mill and tying him to draft pick compensation which would further screw him over. I dunno, just seems like a bad idea to me.

[jon abbey]

I don't believe that, I'm changing the topic title a bit.

[MakMan44]

I don't believe that, I'm changing the topic title a bit.

Fair enough

[Average Reds]

Given his performance this year, I can see how he feels that his maximum leverage to negotiate a long-term deal is right now.

We'll see if he follows through or if he simply extracts a few more years from the Yankees. My bet is that he goes through the same scenario as CC and ends up with an extension rather than actually leaving, but you never know.

[Lowrielicious]

Another factor he may be taking into account would be Rivera. If Mo decides for one last year maybe Soriano (or his agent) would feel he is better off to giveup the 14mil and hit free agency as a successful closer rather than as a setup man and former closer at the end of 2013.

[jon abbey]

They're not giving him an extension, he's very replaceable and I think they'd be just fine with letting him walk. Even if Rivera doesn't come back (and who among us is betting that way?), Robertson, Joba, Montgomery, Logan, Wade looks good again, there's no way they're giving him a multiyear deal at big money unless they just decide to say fuck it like the Dodgers and go to $250M. He's also still a sullen bitch in the clubhouse presumably.

[jon abbey]

Of guys hitting FA after this season or next, Swisher, Kuroda, Granderson, Cano, and even maybe Martin are all higher priorities to try to keep than Soriano IMO.

[Wingack]

Of guys hitting FA after this season or next, Swisher, Kuroda, Granderson, Cano, and even maybe Martin are all higher priorities to try to keep than Soriano IMO.

I think 4 of those 5 guys will be let go.

[RedOctober3829]

Yeah I can't see Martin, Swisher, or Kuroda getting re-signed by the Yankees. A fascinating case will be when Curtis Granderson's contract comes up. Will he keep up his tremendous power numbers enough to offset his many other deficiencies in his offensive game? You have to think they will lock Cano down.

[Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat]

Why won't they re-sign Kuroda? He's not going to be looking for a long commitment, and he's been good.

And based on nothing, I think they'll re-sign either Granderson or Swisher. Not sure which.

[jon abbey]

I've said it elsewhere here, but I think the attempt at $189M in 2014 goes by the wayside this winter, whether or not they win the division. Too many of their potential impact prospects had lost seasons this year, it's hard to see how they can seriously compete in 2014 given the financial commitments they already have without going over the $189M line.

One early test will be Kuroda, who won't expect a massive deal, but who will presumably want more than one year at sizable money to stay.

[JohnnyK]

Swydan covered this on FG recently

The comments make a good point - he gets 1.5 mill. for opting out, and I would assume the Yanks at least offer arb, which would give him more for the year than not opting out. OTOH he could get a multi-year deal elsewhere, maybe for less AAV but more overall value.

[maufman]

Refresh my memory on the new rules -- do the MFY get draft-pick compensation if Soriano signs with a team that has a top-10 pick in 2013?

Because it wouldn't surprise me if one of those teams offered Soriano 3/24 this winter, provided they didn't have to part with a first-round pick to do so.

[jon abbey]

Dunno the answer there, maufman, but would also like to hear it.

Swydan covered this on FG recently

The comments make a good point - he gets 1.5 mill. for opting out, and I would assume the Yanks at least offer arb, which would give him more for the year than not opting out. OTOH he could get a multi-year deal elsewhere, maybe for less AAV but more overall value.

Yep, good call. This will likely be what happens, back to NY on a one year deal for what is essentially $15M or elsewhere for more years and less AAV.

[JohnnyK]

Refresh my memory on the new rules -- do the MFY get draft-pick compensation if Soriano signs with a team that has a top-10 pick in 2013?

http://msn.foxsports...xplained-080310

By the end of the quiet period, the team must decide whether it will tender the player a “qualifying offer” — a guaranteed one-year contract equal to the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players from the previous season. For the 2012-2013 offseason, the figure will be between $12 million and $13 million

According to the FG post above, it should be closer to 13.5 million

And here's the part you ask about, emphasis mine:

If a player is tendered the qualifying offer, he will have seven days to decline or accept. If he declines, his soon-to-be former club will receive two draft picks if and when he signs elsewhere. Let’s say Team A loses a free agent to Team B. Team A will receive Team B’s first-round selection the following year (unless it is one of the top 10 picks, in which case Team B’s next pick is substituted), along with a pick in the sandwich round, between the first and second.

[MakMan44]

MLBTR disagrees:
Meanwhile, the team that signs the free agent will lose a first round selection (though the top ten picks are protected). However, that lost first round pick no longer goes to the player’s former team. Instead, the pick disappears and the first round becomes condensed.

The team will then get a sandwich pick between the first and second round. So basically, the Yankees get a pick no matter what but it's always going to be between the first and second rounds.

BTW a team can only get ONE pick now rather than two from compensation:

Teams that keep their players now obtain one compensatory draft pick for losing a top free agent, whereas they previously obtained two selections.

http://www.mlbtrader...ion-system.html


EDIT: How do the Yankees will deal with him screwing them over if he goes for the extra money? (As noted if he opts out, then accepts their offer he basically gets an extra million bucks or so)

Edited by MakMan44, 16 September 2012 - 02:47 PM.

[JohnnyK]

Interesting, seems FOX still has the old rules in a post that was updated in June.

[jon abbey]

Obviously NY is well aware he'll almost certainly opt out, and they're going to ride him hard accordingly. Seven games in the last ten days including both ends of a doubleheader on Wed and 29 pitches tonight.

[Dummy Hoy]

They're not giving him an extension, he's very replaceable and I think they'd be just fine with letting him walk. Even if Rivera doesn't come back (and who among us is betting that way?), Robertson, Joba, Montgomery, Logan, Wade looks good again, there's no way they're giving him a multiyear deal at big money unless they just decide to say fuck it like the Dodgers and go to $250M. He's also still a sullen bitch in the clubhouse presumably.

Obviously late to this thread, but this comment seems a bit much. Sure he blew that save the other day, but his numbers this year have been Mariano-esque (waiting for lightning to strike me). Of course October is when Mo's true value became apparent, so we'll see how Soriano performs then, but he's been very, very good this year.

Do you think he's "very replaceable" because of the typical fluctuations in reliever performance or is there something else? Are you arguing that almost every reliever is replacable and shouldn't be given a long term deal? (I'd agree with that for sure)

[jon abbey]

Are you arguing that almost every reliever is replacable and shouldn't be given a long term deal? (I'd agree with that for sure)

Yeah, this basically. "Very replaceable" is probably a little strong, but TB manages to find a closer much more cheaply each season and NY's bullpen would hardly be barren without him.

And while Soriano has done a pretty good job this year, I disagree with the "Mariano-esque" comment, even for the regular season. Mariano's ERA/WHIP for the prior four seasons were below 2 and 1 respectively each year, Soriano's 2012 is higher than both of those numbers. 12 guys in the AL have 20+ saves this year, Soriano's WHIP ranks 8th out of 12.

[MakMan44]

http://www.nypost.co...5s4kyCW3n5jiZwO

Heyman says Boras "strongly" hinting Soriano will opt out. Take what you will from it

[MakMan44]

https://twitter.com/...610506575761408

He will indeed opt out. He's seeking a 4 year deal

[Lose Remerswaal]

Gives Mo more negotiating power

[BoredViewer]

If I understand this correctly - it's probably a pretty reasonable play by Soriano. Despite what NYY think the market is... they will likely make the bedgruding qualifying offer (which I saw reported as 13.3mil) - so, at worst... if Soriano can't find a suitor - he'll have the 13.3mil + 1.5 buyout on the table until whenever that offer would expire?

[E5 Yaz]

If I understand this correctly - it's probably a pretty reasonable play by Soriano. Despite what NYY think the market is... they will likely make the bedgruding qualifying offer (which I saw reported as 13.3mil) - so, at worst... if Soriano can't find a suitor - he'll have the 13.3mil + 1.5 buyout on the table until whenever that offer would expire?

Detroit will be interested

[TheYaz67]

Fairly decent brief overview of the choices facing the Yankees now that Soriano has opted out in this Wallace Matthews piece, although I think at the end of it he might be trolling the Yankees fans with the bolded part....

What they should do next: Push Mariano for a decision immediately on whether he will try to come back next year. If he says he is not, the choice is simple: re-sign Soriano. If he is, then they have a tough call to make. My gut says if Mo comes back, the Yankees will let Sori walk and gamble that either David Robertson or, yes, Joba Chamberlain, or maybe even David Phelps could step in as the closer if Mariano is not able to resume his former duties.

http://espn.go.com/b...oriano-opts-out

[jon abbey]

Phelps is more likely to be the 5th starter next year than he is the 8th or 9th inning guy, Matthews is unsurprisingly forgetting both Aardsma and Mark Montgomery as 7th/8th inning options already in the fold (Robertson would certainly be the closer if Rivera retires and Soriano goes elsewhere).

I think Soriano will go elsewhere (maybe 2/28 plus a few million in a buyout on a 3rd year option), Rivera will come back (or try), and NY will be pretty set in the back of the bullpen.

[jon abbey]

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS

Soriano will decline qualifying offer from yankees

[derekson]

Ballsy. I wouldn't be shocked to see him end up screwed like Damon was after declining the Yankees offer after 2009. Of course I also wouldn't be shocked if he gets 3/36 from Detroit or the Angels.

[jon abbey]

You'd think the success of this year's A's and Orioles would have helped with FA fiscal restraint, but it seems like it might somehow end up being the opposite, although who knows how much of this is agent spin.

So NY ended up paying 2/22.5 for one year of mediocre seventh inning work and one year of pretty dominant closing that probably saved the division after Rivera went down. They lost a first round pick upon signing him and will get a high pick back now when he signs elsewhere, a lot better deal in the end that it seemed like to Cashman (overruled to sign him) and most of the rest of us.

[jon abbey]

Man, this piece really reads like Cashman doing Boras a mild favor via his mouthpiece:

"As for Soriano, the Yankees are amenable to talking about a two-year deal with the man who stepped in for Rivera and did a terrific job in 2012. However, they don't seem to feel the need to present one at the moment, not after Soriano opted out, then joined the other seven star players who turned down qualifying offers."

http://www.cbssports...uroda--pettitte

I think there's absolutely no way NY would actually sign him to a multi-year deal given the 2014 constraints that are still supposedly in effect and their other more pressing needs, but it gives Boras a little more leverage against other teams if any of them believe it. Of course, if I can figure it out, I'm guessing most GMs can too. Good luck shopping your pricy malcontent, Scottie.

[Lose Remerswaal]

Ballsy. I wouldn't be shocked to see him end up screwed like Damon was after declining the Yankees offer after 2009. Of course I also wouldn't be shocked if he gets 3/36 from Detroit or the Angels.

Except the difference was that everyone knew that Damon was just about done, while Soriano just came off of a plus plus season.

Other than that it's the same thing.