421 replies to this topic

[Corsi]

As an aside, I've got a pretty good database of every NFL spread since 1978 that I've put together now. Are there any queries people have that they'd like to me to check? I'm as interested for academic purposes as anything else, so I'm looking for good questions as much as anything.

Does it have over/under?

I'd love to see the percentage of games that go over/under with both teams coming off a short week (i.e. Thursday night game). Wondering how fatigue factors in.

For example, the Packers/Bears game last Thursday was set at 51 and they combined for 33.

This week, we've got Giants/Panthers set at 51.5. Will we see a similar result?

[bowiac]

Does it have over/under?

I'd love to see the percentage of games that go over/under with both teams coming off a short week (i.e. Thursday night game). Wondering how fatigue factors in.

For example, the Packers/Bears game last Thursday was set at 51 and they combined for 33.

This week, we've got Giants/Panthers set at 51.5. Will we see a similar result?

Yeah, I've got over unders. Will look into this.

[bowiac]

Great question Corsi. Very possibly fruitful result. There have been 166 Thursday night games in my database. In those games, the over/under is 71-91-4. I haven't checked for byes yet, but that's a pretty decent finding by itself.

Edited by bowiac, 19 September 2012 - 10:32 AM.

[Corsi]

Great question Corsi. Very possibly fruitful result. There have been 166 Thursday night games in my database. In those games, the over/under is 71-91-4. I haven't checked for byes yet, but that's a pretty decent finding by itself.

And I believe that's statistically significant, as well.

Building upon this, can you possibly break this out by the total O/U?

In other words, what's the breakdown if the line is 30-35, 36-40, 41-45, 46-50, 51-55, etc?

[bowiac]

Sure.
30.5-34.5: 3-3-0
35-39.5: 16-25-1
40-44.5: 34-43-2
45-49.5: 16-13-0
50-54.5: 2-4-1
55-59.9: 0-1-0

The two Thursday night games from this year aren't in the above data (but were in the overall 71-91-4).

[Corsi]

Sure.
30.5-34.5: 3-3-0
35-39.5: 16-25-1
40-44.5: 34-43-2
45-49.5: 16-13-0
50-54.5: 2-4-1
55-59.9: 0-1-0

The two Thursday night games from this year aren't in the above data (but were in the overall 71-91-4).

Interesting. So the real sweet spot is when two teams expected to score very little (35-39.5) go head-to-head. These teams, which presumably have poor offensive and/or strong defensive reputations, end up scoring even less, due to the short week of rest/preparation.

For teams at 45+, it's a straight 18/18 split.

Edited by Corsi, 19 September 2012 - 02:18 PM.

[Oil Can Dan]

Back in the 90's I used to bet on the under for the two teams that had played the previous Monday Night. My rationale was that the game-plan would usually be scaled down a bit due to the short week. I don't have numbers to back it up, but there were a few seasons where it was easy money.

[bombdiggz]

Week 1 Result: 5-7, $-200

Week 2 Thursday Night:
Chicago +5.5 $350 L
Chicago ML $125 to win $250 L
Under 51.5 $150 W

Week 2 - Sunday

NE -13.5 $600 L
Bal +3 $400 W
Hou -6.5 $400 W
Cincinnati -7 $200 P
KCC +3 $150 L
NO -3 $100 L
Sea +3.5 $100 W
(leans on TBB, Mia, StL, and SDC but I'm not pulling the trigger) Guess I shoulda bet these as they went 4-0

Monday night

Edit: ATL ML $300 to win $200, O 50 $200 W, L

After Week 2: 10-12-1; ($475)

2. Just as a matter of policy, picking against a 14 point spread is a good idea, especially early in the season. 14 points is close to the biggest possible differential you'll see between teams. (Unless you're dealing with a historic team or something). If this was the 2-12 Cardinals coming into town to play the 12-2 Patriots, then maybe a 14 point spread is correct. But early in the year, there's just not enough data to justify that kind of spread on anyone. That's a spread that's hard to justify.

This is spot on Bowiac. I was fully aware that I was picking against what is normally the conventional play and was fine with that. But it was pretty stupid to make it my biggest play of the weekend.

Week 3 - Thursday

Over 48.5 $100

I had really liked Carolina at +1 when this line opened. I waited thinking most of the money was going to come in on the Giants. Unfortunately, it's swung the other way. I feel pretty ambivalent about it -3. I still like Carolina a bit, but not enough to throw any coin on it.

For the weekend, so far I've made plays on the opening lines of PIT, DET, and SF. I'm not thrilled about them all being road faves though.

Edited by bombdiggz, 20 September 2012 - 05:54 PM.

[TeddyBallgame'sDirtbagSon]

Gimme NYG + 3 for a dollar


Been waiting all day for it to move here. Was sitting at 2.5 -120 for a while. I think the public perception is to go against the giants because of the well known skill player injuries to Bradshaw and nicks. I say thanks for the points.

[maufman]

Browns +3
Cardinals +4
Steelers -5
Seahawks +3.5

Browns best bet

With the important caveat that having me criticize your gambling decisions probably reflects favorably on your judgment -- the Browns? Really??

They're only a 3-point underdog, so you're basically taking them to win the game on the field. I'm not sure I'd give the Browns better than an even money chance to beat anyone -- let alone a Bills team that looked great last week and was widely expected to be at least middling prior to their Week 1 debacle.

[Dgilpin]

With the important caveat that having me criticize your gambling decisions probably reflects favorably on your judgment -- the Browns? Really??

They're only a 3-point underdog, so you're basically taking them to win the game on the field. I'm not sure I'd give the Browns better than an even money chance to beat anyone -- let alone a Bills team that looked great last week and was widely expected to be at least middling prior to their Week 1 debacle.

My take is the Browns have played 2 good teams pretty tough the last 2 weeks, with Weeden and Richardson looking pretty good last week against a playoff team from last year. I guess I'm not buying into the Buffalo hype, they got blasted by an average to slightly above average Jets squad and they beat up on the Chiefs (who I think could potentially be one of the bottom 5 teams in the league). I just don't think Buffalo has done anything to warrant being a 3 favorite on the road. In my opinion this a pick'em or a slight favorite towards the Browns, so I'll gladly take the home team with the points.

Edited by Dgilpin, 21 September 2012 - 10:56 AM.

[bowiac]

With the important caveat that having me criticize your gambling decisions probably reflects favorably on your judgment -- the Browns? Really??

They're only a 3-point underdog, so you're basically taking them to win the game on the field. I'm not sure I'd give the Browns better than an even money chance to beat anyone -- let alone a Bills team that looked great last week and was widely expected to be at least middling prior to their Week 1 debacle.

I think the Brownies + 3 might be the best bet of the weekend. Why are the Bills any better than the Browns at all, let alone road favorites against them? The Bills have looked great beating the worst team in football, and have looked dreadful playing the Jets. Is that really a better resume than losing to the Eagles by 1, and losing to the Bengals by 7? (Obligatory NFL picks blog pimping here.)

Edited by bowiac, 21 September 2012 - 07:46 AM.

[Rocco Graziosa]

I think the Brownies + 3 might be the best bet of the weekend. Why are the Bills any better than the Browns at all, let alone road favorites against them? The Bills have looked great beating the worst team in football, and have looked dreadful playing the Jets. Is that really a better resume than losing to the Eagles by 1, and losing to the Bengals by 7? (Obligatory NFL picks blog pimping here.)

I love the Browns +3. The Bills don't have any business being road favorites to any NFL team, and I hope they enjoyed the week blowing each other after their big win.

I expect the Browns to win but always grab the points when I can.

[Old Fart Tree]

I too like the Browns, and I put on a small tease that is highly unlikely to hit.

[berezina]

Last week: 7-8-1. Season: 13-18-1.


NYG -1.5 CAR*

KCC +9 NOS*
CIN +3 WAS*
BUF -3 CLE*
NYJ -3 MIA*
*DET -4 TEN
*SFF -7.5 MIN
TBB +8 DAL*
*STL +7.5 CHI
JAX +3 IND*

PHI -3.5 ARI*
ATL +3 SDC*
*HOU -3 DEN
*PIT -4.5 OAK

NEP +3 BAL*

GBP -3.5 SEA*

[Marciano490]

You guys talked me into CLE. Also took NO and the under in the '9ers game.

[bombdiggz]

Week 3 - Sunday

Pittsburgh -4 $500
San Francisco -7 $500
Detroit -3 $250; ML $420 to win $200
Atlanta +3 $200; ML $50 to win $75
Texans -1 $200
Bears -6.5 $100
Browns +3 $100
Colts -3 $100
Cardinals +3.5 $100

[Deathofthebambino]

I just jumped on Buffalo -3 for $500, Indy -3 for $500, and I put $500 on Cinci's money line to win outright, pays $775.

[Deathofthebambino]

I just jumped on Buffalo -3 for $500, Indy -3 for $500, and I put $500 on Cinci's money line to win outright, pays $775.

Not a bad start today. For the afternoon games, I took Houston/Denver over 43.5 for $500 and $200 on Oakland money line to win $320.

[Old Fart Tree]

This is the worst gambling year I have ever had and it's week 3. Jesus I think I'm ofer.

[SMU_Sox]

After a bad week one I resolved I would wait until week 4. I'm glad I did as my picks have been terrible.

[Deathofthebambino]

Not a bad start today. For the afternoon games, I took Houston/Denver over 43.5 for $500 and $200 on Oakland money line to win $320.

After being up $755 after the 1:00 games, I hit both of these for another $820.

Going back after it with the Pats game. I'm making a bunch of bets, but for less money. Here they are:

Tease the Over (43) and the Pats (+9). $200
Brady to have more passing yards than Flacco, -15.5 yards, $100
Brady over 25 completions, $100
Welker to have more receiving yards than Boldin, -15.5 yards, $100
Gronk over 69.5 yards, $100

Been about as good a day as I've ever had. In my weekly pick em pool where you pick every game with spreads, I was 10-3 today. I have a 1 game lead with tonight and tomorrow night's games left. However, I took Baltimore giving 3.5 and Green Bay giving 3.5. Every guy that can catch me has the Pats, so if Baltimore covers, I win. That said, I'll still be rooting for the Pats (it's only $150 for a weekly win) and then just hope none of the five guys I'll be tied with have Green Bay, or I win the tiebreaker (combined MNF score, I have 52 points). Of course, this would all be moot had I not forgotten to make my Giants pick on Thursday night. I'm an idiot.

I scored the most points in one of my fantasy leagues, so I won that weekly pool. I have 131 points and still have Gronk left.

All that said, in my biggest money pool ($1,000 entry) where you make 1 college pick and 2 pro picks every week, I managed to go 0-3, even though I went 11-3 picking pro games. The two teams I took in the pool, Detroit and Indy, were 2 of the 3 that I got wrong. I'm currently 1-8 in that pool, and am seriously considering going for last place at this point, which pays you back your entry fee. Of course, if I do that, I'll probably start hitting them correctly.

Edited by Deathofthebambino, 23 September 2012 - 07:13 PM.

[Deathofthebambino]

I guess I should be really happy about how the day turned out from a gambling perspective, but if I could trade my winnings right now for a Pats win, I probably would. Just to close this out:

After being up $755 after the 1:00 games, I hit both of these for another $820.

Going back after it with the Pats game. I'm making a bunch of bets, but for less money. Here they are:

Tease the Over (43) and the Pats (+9). $200 This one was never in doubt: +$200
Brady to have more passing yards than Flacco, -15.5 yards, $100, Brady had a commanding lead until the end of the game, and ended up being beaten 382-335, -$110
Brady over 25 completions, $100, Never really in doubt, but wish he finished with a couple more than he did, would have iced the game. He finished with 28, +$100
Welker to have more receiving yards than Boldin, -15.5 yards, $100, Welker is back, shredded Boldin by a total of 142-48, +$100
Gronk over 69.5 yards, $100 If you told me Brady would have 335 yards and I'd lose this one, I wouldn't have believed it. Gronk only had 2 catches for 21 yards. -$130

Been about as good a day as I've ever had. In my weekly pick em pool where you pick every game with spreads, I was 10-3 today. I have a 1 game lead with tonight and tomorrow night's games left. However, I took Baltimore giving 3.5 and Green Bay giving 3.5. Every guy that can catch me has the Pats, so if Baltimore covers, I win. That said, I'll still be rooting for the Pats (it's only $150 for a weekly win) and then just hope none of the five guys I'll be tied with have Green Bay, or I win the tiebreaker (combined MNF score, I have 52 points). Of course, this would all be moot had I not forgotten to make my Giants pick on Thursday night. I'm an idiot. Worst part of this is that the Pats lost and the Ravens didn't cover, so I got fucked both ways. I am now in a 6 way tie for the week going into MNF. I have Green Bay, won't know who everyone else picked until game time tomorrow (I could still change my pick, but I'm not). The tie break is the closest to the total from tomorrow night's game, and I have it at 52 points. No penalty for going over. In these situations, I take the strategy of trying to have the lowest number of all the picks or the highest number. I think the two teams will actually score more points than the over/under (I'm probably betting the over, either straight up or in a tease) which is 46.5. I'm thinking about maybe going to 55 or something. If I have the highest number, than any total score over my number would guarantee me victory. What do you guys think, stick with 52 or go higher?

So, the Pats game netted me out $160, which puts me at +1725 on the day. Not bad for my first weekend of gambling. I never gamble the first two weeks because I've learned that you can learn, well, nothing from them. Typically, I don't gamble until week 4, but couldn't pass up a couple bets this weekend, particularly Buffalo and the Cincy money line. I loved those bets.

[johnmd20]

Last week: 7-8-1. Season: 13-18-1.


NYG -1.5 CAR*

KCC +9 NOS*
CIN +3 WAS*
BUF -3 CLE*
NYJ -3 MIA*
*DET -4 TEN
*SFF -7.5 MIN
TBB +8 DAL*
*STL +7.5 CHI
JAX +3 IND*

PHI -3.5 ARI*
ATL +3 SDC*
*HOU -3 DEN
*PIT -4.5 OAK

NEP +3 BAL*

GBP -3.5 SEA*

2-12-1. Brutal week.

[bombdiggz]

This is the worst gambling year I have ever had and it's week 3. Jesus I think I'm ofer.

After a bad week one I resolved I would wait until week 4. I'm glad I did as my picks have been terrible.

Amen, this is the worst start to an NFL season that I've ever had and yesterday was in the running for worst day ever. Definitely have to make some adjustments and lighten up a bit bet wise.

In my weekly pick em pool where you pick every game with spreads, I was 10-3 today.

In my weekly pick'em pool, the winner is going to have 8 including Thursday and Monday.

Monday night:

Seahwaks +4 $100, Teasing the points and the under to Hawks +10.5 and under 52.5 for a $100

[Deathofthebambino]

In my weekly pick'em pool, the winner is going to have 8 including Thursday and Monday.

Monday night:

Seahwaks +4 $100, Teasing the points and the under to Hawks +10.5 and under 52.5 for a $100

That's kind of amazing. We have over 50 guys in our pool, so maybe that has something to do with it. But, I had 10 correct, while completely forgetting to pick the Giants on Thursday. I'm in a 6 way tie going into tonight, by only myself and one other guy have Green Bay. He has 47 points for his total for MNF, while I have 53, so if Green Bay covers (-3.5) and they combine for more than 50 points, I'll win the weekly pool.

Which brings me to my gambling bets:

I parlayed the Packers (-3) with the Over (44). Risking $300 to win $713.

I put $100 on the over on total sacks by the two teams, -4.5 (Clay Matthews alone has 6 sacks through the first two games of the season)

I put $100 to win $140 on James Jones getting more yards than Golden Tate receiving. Jones is giving 12.5 yards, but I like his chances for a big game with Jennings still gimpy. Tate has 3 catches on the year.

I put $100 on Jermichael Finley to have over 4.5 receptions. Again, with Jennings gimpy, I think the door is open for Nelson, Finley and Jones to have good days today.

Off we go.

[Buck Showalter]

I give you guys a lot of credit......you have balls.

To gamble in the environment with these officials is really spitting in the wind.

[Deathofthebambino]

That's kind of amazing. We have over 50 guys in our pool, so maybe that has something to do with it. But, I had 10 correct, while completely forgetting to pick the Giants on Thursday. I'm in a 6 way tie going into tonight, by only myself and one other guy have Green Bay. He has 47 points for his total for MNF, while I have 53, so if Green Bay covers (-3.5) and they combine for more than 50 points, I'll win the weekly pool.

Which brings me to my gambling bets:

I parlayed the Packers (-3) with the Over (44). Risking $300 to win $713.

I put $100 on the over on total sacks by the two teams, -4.5 (Clay Matthews alone has 6 sacks through the first two games of the season)

I put $100 to win $140 on James Jones getting more yards than Golden Tate receiving. Jones is giving 12.5 yards, but I like his chances for a big game with Jennings still gimpy. Tate has 3 catches on the year.

I put $100 on Jermichael Finley to have over 4.5 receptions. Again, with Jennings gimpy, I think the door is open for Nelson, Finley and Jones to have good days today.

Off we go.

Well, I have one of these bets already in my pocket. Seattle has already sacked Rodgers SEVEN times in the first half. The O/U for both teams combined was 4.5. Kind of wish I put my house on that bet.

The rest of the bets, and my pick 'em pool? Not looking so good.

[Old Fart Tree]

I feel like home dogs are the best bets with these clownshoes in stripes. I'm going to bang those hard next week.

[bombdiggz]

I give you guys a lot of credit......you have balls.

To gamble in the environment with these officials is really spitting in the wind.

I feel like home dogs are the best bets with these clownshoes in stripes. I'm going to bang those hard next week.

These guys are really beyond horrid. So much for the integrity of the game. Respect the union. Pay the men with the skills. Scabs, exit stage right.

[Deathofthebambino]

Well, the NFL giveth and she taketh away. Looks like my teaser is shot, -300.

But it's the other ones that were gut punches.

I have Finley over 4.5 catches. He has 4 for 60 yards. Had GB actually gotten the ball back in the last 7 minutes or so, he probably would have picked up that last reception.

I have James Jones giving 12.5 yards to Golden Tate. James Jones has 5 catches for 55 yards. Tate had one catch in the first half, a 41 yard TD, and just caught a little garbage 3 yard pass, so he has 44 yards on 2 catches. I'm going to lose by 1.5 yards.

I hit the over on the sacks though, teams have a combined 9 sacks to this point. I hope Seattle beats them. Fuck Green Bay. They deserve to lose.


And in case nobody is paying attention, this is the last time I'll take an over involving an NFC West team. San Fran, Seattle and Arizona are all playing pretty fucking ridiculous defense, espeically at home.

[TeddyBallgame'sDirtbagSon]

Early lines are in


WAS +3 @ TB -120

[Super Nomario]

In the postgame interview, Pete Carroll mentioned this game, which brought back some old memories. The Pats trailed 21-17 and drove for a TD, partially helped by some questionable calls, to take a two-point lead. The line was three (3.5 by game time), so an extra point would have still been a push (or Bills win at 3.5), but Wade Phillips, Buffalo's coach, was so pissed that he refused to come out for the extra point. The Pats ran it in for a two-point conversion, and a bizarre cover. Between that game, last night, and all the times USC lost to a shitty Stanford team or something, how many great gambling moments in history has Pete Carroll been involved in? You are officially crazy to bet on or against the Seahawks as long as he's coach.

[bombdiggz]

Early lines are in


WAS +3 @ TB -120

Arizona (-6) vs Miami and GB (-7) vs. NO look tempting. Gotta think GB will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after last night.

[ilol@u]

I'm going New England Patriots -3.5 HUGE. I honestly do not remember the last time they have lost 3 games in a row with Tom Brady/BB. If ever. I think with CJ Spiller/Fred Jackson injured and Fitzpatrick being inconsistent throughout the last 3 games, I think the Pats win by 17.

[Old Fart Tree]

Between that game, last night, and all the times USC lost to a shitty Stanford team or something, how many great gambling moments in history has Pete Carroll been involved in? You are officially crazy to bet on or against the Seahawks as long as he's coach.

My friends and I still refer to this game as The Drive (from Wikipedia on the 2005 USC Football team):

The Trojans next faced the Stanford Cardinal. Though the Cardinal were the last team to beat the Trojans at home back in 2001, they were slightly struggling under first–year head coach Walt Harris and quarterback Trent Edwards with a 4–3 record. The Trojans jumped to an early lead with a LenDale White rushing touchdown, a Reggie Bush rushing touchdown, a Leinart touchdown pass to White, and a Mario Danelo field goal. With a 24 point lead, Leinart threw two more touchdown passes before Edwards passed for the first Cardinal touchdown of the game. Leinart's fourth touchdown pass came with three minutes left in the half to give the Trojans a 44–7 half-time lead. The Cardinal scored on a rush in the third quarter, and with many starters out the Trojans answered in the fourth quarter with their own rushing touchdown. The Cardinal ended the scoring with 23 seconds remaining with their second rushing touchdown of the game to bring the score to 51–21. With the win, the Trojans extended their winning streak to 31 games.

Basically, the spread had been 34.5, and we thought that sounded just a LITTLE bit high, so we went in, three of us for $100 each to a local bookie. Stanford was trailing 14-0 in less than 90 seconds, and 28-0 with like five minutes to play in the first period. We wrote it off, went to grab a bite, and came back with Stanford mounting a valiant drive against the USC 8th stringers. When they punched it in with 23 seconds to go, we went bonkers.

Those were some pretty bleak times for the program.

[jsinger121]

I'm going New England Patriots -3.5 HUGE. I honestly do not remember the last time they have lost 3 games in a row with Tom Brady/BB. If ever. I think with CJ Spiller/Fred Jackson injured and Fitzpatrick being inconsistent throughout the last 3 games, I think the Pats win by 17.

2002 they lost 4 in a row to San Diego, Miami, Green Bay and Denver. That is the only time they have ever had a 3 game losing streak in the BB/TB era.

[Dgilpin]

Browns +3
Cardinals +4
Steelers -5
Seahawks +3.5

Browns best bet

2-2 Last Week

Week 4 Picks

Falcons -7
Jets +4
Chargers PK
Seahawks -2.5
Cardinals -6
Jags +2.5

Edit: To account for line changes

Edited by Dgilpin, 27 September 2012 - 12:38 PM.

[maufman]

Pats @BUF is a tough bet -- most sites have the Pats favored by 4. My gut says I should take the Pats to cover; my brain says that picking a home team that's a 4-point underdog is the way to go in light of league-wide trends. If the line stays where it is, I'll probably take the Pats to cover, but if a settlement with the NFLRA moves the line by a point or two in NE's direction, I'll roll the dice on the Bills.

Absolutely love the Browns +12 on Thursday night. I don't recall a team having to play Thursday after having a Sunday night game, but I have to think that essentially losing Monday as a prep day will have an adverse effect. Also, the Browns have "only" the 5th-worst P-diff in the AFC, and I'm not sure anyone should be a 12-point favorite in the NFL this year.

The Chargers as a pick-em or a 1-point underdog (depending on the oddsmaker) @KC is also a great bet -- gamblers are putting way too much emphasis on recent results there.

[bowiac]

I actually kind of like that Ravens line, but I've also got it at -11 on my book. The Brownies look as bad as any team in football. Their best showing so far was a 1 point loss to a shitty Eagles team. I don't much like double digit lines normally, but that's a line that should be closer to 14 or so I think.

[Stitch01]

I'm going New England Patriots -3.5 HUGE. I honestly do not remember the last time they have lost 3 games in a row with Tom Brady/BB. If ever. I think with CJ Spiller/Fred Jackson injured and Fitzpatrick being inconsistent throughout the last 3 games, I think the Pats win by 17.

Going huge on NE -4

Browns +12 and a snack on the money line
SF -4
Chi +3.5
Cinn if they're still -2.5 at my book. small play at -3.
NYG/SL/GB three team 6 point tease

Small plays on
Titans +12
Det -4.5
Car +7

Maybe small play on Oak +6.5 and Mia +6.5

[bbc23]

I am almost expecting a reverse home-bias this week as the regular refs have definitely seen the extra difference the replacement refs made, making the road picks look even better, shouldn't make a large difference, but Vegas definitely had accounted for the replacement refs at the beginning of the week

[Valek123]

Has there been a big shift in the lines for the weekend games with the real refs returning as opposed to the replacement refs? Will be interesting to see if Vegas set the lines assuming refs were coming back or if there has been a large shift in any lines since the deal was signed.

[bombdiggz]

After Week 2: 10-12-1; ($475)

Week 3 - Thursday
Over 48.5 $100 L

Week 3 - Sunday
Pittsburgh -4 $500 L
San Francisco -7 $500 L
Detroit -3 $250; ML $420 to win $200 L, L
Atlanta +3 $200; ML $50 to win $75 W, W
Texans -1 $200 W
Bears -6.5 $100 W
Browns +3 $100 L
Colts -3 $100 L
Cardinals +3.5 $100 W

Monday night:
Seahwaks +4 $100, Teasing the points and the under to Hawks +10.5 and under 52.5 for a $100 W, W

7-7 ($1100) on the week. Really could have gone for Detroit pulling out that game in OT.

A week right up there with one my worst ever leaves me at 17-19-1; ($1575) after week 3. I had a brutal week like this last year in the second half of the season. Last year that was my first weekly loss on the season, this season I'm 0-3. Gross.

Not loving the line on tonights game. I could see a letdown for Baltimore after a huge win last week, but I'd like it a lot more at +14. So, I'm only playing a small teaser.

Week 4 Thursday

Cleveland +19 Under 51 $100

[bowiac]

The only play I particularly like tonight is the under 44 really.

[Dan Murfman]

Absolutely love the Browns +12 on Thursday night. I don't recall a team having to play Thursday after having a Sunday night game, but I have to think that essentially losing Monday as a prep day will have an adverse effect.

I don't know why I remembered this but last year the Jets got hammered by the Pats on Sunday night and then had to travel to Denver get beat by Tebow in the Thursday night game.

Edited by Dan Murfman, 27 September 2012 - 02:25 PM.

[dynomite]

The only play I particularly like tonight is the under 44 really.

Also liking the under tonight.

Here are the rest of the lines I'm seeing as of the moment:

Thu - Cleveland at Baltimore (-12) (8:20pm ET)
Sun - New England at Buffalo (+3.5) (1:00pm ET)
Sun - San Diego at Kansas City (pick) (1:00pm ET)
Sun - Tennessee at Houston (-12) (1:00pm ET)
Sun - Minnesota at Detroit (off) (1:00pm ET)
Sun - Carolina at Atlanta (-7) (1:00pm ET)
Sun - Seattle at St. Louis (+1) (1:00pm ET)
Sun - San Francisco at N.Y. Jets (+4) (1:00pm ET)
Sun - Oakland at Denver (-6.5) (4:05pm ET)
Sun - Cincinnati at Jacksonville (+1) (4:05pm ET)
Sun - Miami at Arizona (-7) (4:05pm ET)
Sun - Washington at Tampa Bay (-1.5) (4:25pm ET)
Sun - New Orleans at Green Bay (-9) (4:25pm ET)
Sun - N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (-1) (8:20pm ET)
Mon - Chicago at Dallas (-3.5) (8:30pm ET)

I like the following teams as part of a 6-point 3-team teaser for $100:

NE (+2.5) @ BUF
ATL (-1) vs. CAR
CIN (+5) @ JAX

I don't really like the money lines this week but would consider:

NE (-220)
NYG (+108)

[Dgilpin]

Just grabbed the Browns under 16.5 total points

[Corsi]

Really digging the Seattle -3 at St Louis and Under 39

[Corsi]

Liking this teaser too