421 replies to this topic

[Sportsbstn]

... The line dropped again, and the Pats are now a 4.5 favorite over the Titans. What is going on?

People are playing the trend. Super Bowl loser is 1-13 ATS (in last 14 games) in their first game of next season if they are playing on the road. The public takes over closer to kickoff and they love trends.

Edited by Sportsbstn, 08 September 2012 - 02:53 PM.

[bowiac]

All the data I've seen has suggested that home field advantage is mostly an officiating effect. If this is in fact the case, isn't there a strong case for betting home teams this week on the basis that the replacement refs are going to be more susceptible to crowd noise issues?

[mikeford]

Pats line is still -6 on bovada.

If it drops to 4.5 or 5, I'll probably bet it.

Made out well with the Cowboys moneyline on Thursday.

[Sportsbstn]

All the data I've seen has suggested that home field advantage is mostly an officiating effect. If this is in fact the case, isn't there a strong case for betting home teams this week on the basis that the replacement refs are going to be more susceptible to crowd noise issues?

Bowiac, thats an interesting angle which I have not seen mentioned before. The bookmakers I have met use things like the travel weariness, home crowd support and field and environment familiarity, especially say like a place like Denver. Do you have some links to the data on the refs effect? I would not think the crowd noise would have a huge effect on the refs as much as perhaps not wanting to make a terrible call against the home team.

[berezina]

Week 1

*DAL +3.5 NYG 24-17 W

IND +10 CHI*
*PHI -9 CLE
*BUF +3 NYJ
WAS +7.5 NOS*
*NEP -5 TEN
JAX +3.5 MIN*
MIA +13 HOU*
STL +8 DET*
*ATL -2.5 KCC

SFF +4.5 GBP*
*CAR -2.5 TBB
*SEA -2.5 ARI

*PIT +1.5 DEN

CIN +7 BAL*
SDC -1 OAK*

Not sold on Greg Schiano. Discipline is necessary, but he may turn out to lack strategic flexibility, & become the next Mike Singletary. Also not sold on Josh Freeman, who looked wan in the preseason, though I admit he's a gamer who plays his best in the fourth quarter, so he could surprise me. Doug Martin looked good in the preseason. On the other side, CAR got healthier (aside from a questionable Steve Smith. I can understand the concern there), & also added one of the best-looking rookies in pre-season, Luke Kuechly. Run-first should be a good matchup for them as their secondary remains a weakness. No reason to think Cam Newton will take a step backward. His mistakes were mostly rookie mistakes. Barring injury - he exposes his body a lot, though he's so big he's gotten away with it - I could see him having an even better season.

NEP/TEN, I think the small spread is product of how poor NEP's offense looked in the preseason, along with the odd decision to cut all three of Stallworth/Gaffney/Branch. Locker looked good in limited play last year, but accuracy is still a concern. Kendall Wright really looked good in the preseason. I could see him making a couple of big plays. I'm going conservative and assuming Brady & the O will show up.

Apologies if I misspelled any names. I may post more analysis later.

[Dehere]

All the data I've seen has suggested that home field advantage is mostly an officiating effect. If this is in fact the case, isn't there a strong case for betting home teams this week on the basis that the replacement refs are going to be more susceptible to crowd noise issues?

Really interesting thought although I wonder if it's just as possible that the replacement officiating will be enough of a crapshoot to negate traditional trends.

Likes this week:

Buffalo getting 3.

Skins-Saints over. Think NO is good for about 40 at home. You probably don't need to get much out of WAS against average-to-mediocre NO D to get to the over.

[Sportsbstn]

I played for 4 for today:

Top play: Seattle -2.5 over Arizona

Other plays:
St Louis +9 over Detroit
Indy +9.5 over Chicago
Patriots -4.5 over Tennessee

[bowiac]

Bowiac, thats an interesting angle which I have not seen mentioned before. The bookmakers I have met use things like the travel weariness, home crowd support and field and environment familiarity, especially say like a place like Denver. Do you have some links to the data on the refs effect? I would not think the crowd noise would have a huge effect on the refs as much as perhaps not wanting to make a terrible call against the home team.

Here's a summary of the biggest study I've seen on the subject. Notably, they don't find much evidence of travel weariness, or any reduced performance by road teams generally.

The key part:

When athletes are at home, they don’t seem to hit or pitch better in baseball … or pass better in football. The crowd doesn’t appear to be helping the home team or harming the visitors. We checked “the vicissitudes of travel” off the list. And although scheduling bias against the road team explains some of the home-field advantage, particularly in college sports, it’s irrelevant in many sports.

[...]

In a word: the refs. Moscowitz and Wertheim found that home teams essentially get slightly preferential treatment from the officials, whether it’s a called third strike in baseball or, in soccer, a foul that results in a penalty kick.

The idea that home field is mostly an officiating effect is also consistent with the different degrees of home field advantage effect in various sports. The bigger the impact the referees have, the bigger the home field advantage.

Edited by bowiac, 09 September 2012 - 11:28 AM.

[bombdiggz]

I've used Bovada as well a few times, no issues.

The line on the Pats game actually dropped from -6.5 to -6 yesterday. I'm surprised it's that low in the first place, let along moving in that direction.

Bovada is okay. The interface is great, but there payout times have gotten very sluggish. It used be two weeks from request to check in hand. It's now two months. And they bounced two checks on me last year.

That being said. The best advice I could give to anyone is keep multiple (at least 3 books). You can pick up free points all the time and that results in many essentially bonus wins each season. For instance Bovada is tilted towards public favorites, which makes it a great place to bet dogs. (e.g. NE is -6 there and Philly is -10. I got NE at -5 and Philly at -8.5 elsewhere this afternoon)

As anyone who has followed this thread the past couple of years, I bet some serious scrilla on the NFL. As the season goes forth, I'll eventually make plays on almost every game, but thats not how I go about the early weeks.

NE -5 $500; ML $720 to win $300
Philly -8.5 $600
Atlanta -2.5 $600
Buffalo +3 $80; ML $50 to win $65

Loving PIT tomorrow evening as well. I'll finalize the play tomorrow.

Edited by bombdiggz, 09 September 2012 - 11:49 AM.

[Sportsbstn]

Loving PIT tomorrow evening as well. I'll finalize the play tomorrow.

That game is tonight. Im sure you mistyped, but just a heads up if you did not.

I like 5Dimes alot, but I bet a lot more than just the NFL (I bet a lot of tennis matches). The NFL for me is a small bet, but the book does have some sharp people who bet there. Even though we can not bet there, Pinnacle is an excellent book to watch. Having multiple books though is very helpful as you point out though, some books slant their lines or are just not very reactive.

[Marciano490]

Bovada is okay. The interface is great, but there payout times have gotten very sluggish. It used be two weeks from request to check in hand. It's now two months. And they bounced two checks on me last year.

That being said. The best advice I could give to anyone is keep multiple (at least 3 books). You can pick up free points all the time and that results in many essentially bonus wins each season. For instance Bovada is tilted towards public favorites, which makes it a great place to bet dogs. (e.g. NE is -6 there and Philly is -10. I got NE at -5 and Philly at -8.5 elsewhere this afternoon)

Loving PIT tomorrow evening as well. I'll finalize the play tomorrow.

Good advice on the multiple books, and I love Pit as well. Bovada crapped out on my last night when I was trying to bet on the Ward fight; not sure how often this happens, but it was frustrating seeing their servers down on a Saturday night around 10ish.

[bowiac]

Good thing Seattle was a lock.

[bombdiggz]

That game is tonight. Im sure you mistyped, but just a heads up if you did not.

Cheers and thank you. Not only a mistype but a sloppy overlook in this game we call life.

PIT +3 $600; ML $250 to win $300

[phragle]

Good thing Seattle was a lock.

Variance, it happens.

[bombdiggz]

PIT +3 $600; ML $250 to win $300

I like it more when Peyton's neck is all messed up...

On to tonight...

BAL -7 $100; BAL ML $325 to win $100

Edit:

Oakland ML $110 to win $100, O 48 $100

Edited by bombdiggz, 10 September 2012 - 08:09 PM.

[Marciano490]

I like your style. just put some money on the Ravens -7 myself and am considering the over in the late game.

[Corsi]

All the data I've seen has suggested that home field advantage is mostly an officiating effect. If this is in fact the case, isn't there a strong case for betting home teams this week on the basis that the replacement refs are going to be more susceptible to crowd noise issues?

Building on this a bit, I just saw a stat that 29 pass interference penalties were called in Week 1, compares to 25 total in Weeks 1 and 2 of last season combined.

With drives being sustained due to PI penalties, scoring is up. Is this being baked into the over/unders? If not, it seems like something that can be taken advantage of.

Now, I know it's only been 1 week but here's a look at Week 1 2012 vs 2011 season average



So total yards are down, but it's almost entirely a product of rushing yards being down. Passing yards are up considerably, and this is independent of any yardage gained on Pass Interference penalties. Points per Game is up by nearly 5 points.

Here's a look at Week 1 Over/Under results vs their lines, with all Overs highlighted in red.



I've only recently had an interest in this stuff, so is this typical?

Furthermore, is there any place to download files of historial NFL team stats by week, and perhaps Vegas results by week?

Would love the pivot the data and see what's in there.

edit: fixed PPG averages

Edited by Corsi, 11 September 2012 - 08:48 PM.

[SMU_Sox]

Doesn't December bring down NFL point averages as the weather gets bad for many teams?

[Corsi]

Doesn't December bring down NFL point averages as the weather gets bad for many teams?

Possibly. I'd love to dig into that.

Some other nuggets:

There was an average of 49.4 points per game in week 1 of the NFL season, the highest average in the opening week since the 1970 merger. The previous high: in 2002, after the last round of expansion, NFL teams combined for 49.3 points per game in week 1.

Across the NFL, 71.5 percent of the yards gained in week 1 were on passes--the highest percentage in any season-opening week in league history, breaking the mark set last season (70.0 pct).

http://espn.go.com/espn/elias

Edited by Corsi, 11 September 2012 - 08:09 PM.

[Corsi]

As far as PPG by month, here's the 2011 data, with above average months highlighted in red:

[Super Nomario]

Building on this a bit, I just saw a stat that 29 pass interference penalties were called in Week 1, compares to 25 total in Weeks 1 and 2 of last season combined.

With drives being sustained due to PI penalties, scoring is up. Is this being baked into the over/unders? If not, it seems like something that can be taken advantage of.

Now, I know it's only been 1 week but here's a look at Week 1 2012 vs 2011 season average



So total yards are down, but it's almost entirely a product of rushing yards being down. Passing yards are up considerably, and this is independent of any yardage gained on Pass Interference penalties. Points per Game is up by nearly 5 points.

Here's a look at Week 1 Over/Under results vs their lines, with all Overs highlighted in red.



I've only recently had an interest in this stuff, so is this typical?

Furthermore, is there any place to download files of historial NFL team stats by week, and perhaps Vegas results by week?

Would love the pivot the data and see what's in there.

edit: fixed PPG averages

You have the O/U for the Pats game at 48 and the total points at 47 but you have the game highlighted as an over.

[Corsi]

You have the O/U for the Pats game at 48 and the total points at 47 but you have the game highlighted as an over.

Ah good catch. Thought I set up the conditional formatting correctly.

That'd make it 9/7 O/U, which I'm sure isn't significant.

[Corsi]

Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total

9/13 8:20 ET At Green Bay -6 Chicago 51.5

9/16 1:00 ET At NY Giants -7.5 Tampa Bay 44

9/16 1:00 ET At New England -13.5 Arizona 48.5

9/16 1:00 ET Minnesota -1.5 At Indianapolis 44.5

9/16 1:00 ET New Orleans -2.5 At Carolina 50.5

9/16 1:00 ET At Buffalo -3 Kansas City 45

9/16 1:00 ET At Philadelphia -2.5 Baltimore 47

9/16 1:00 ET Oakland -2.5 At Miami 37.5

9/16 1:00 ET At Cincinnati -7 Cleveland 38.5

9/16 1:00 ET Houston -7.5 At Jacksonville 41.5

9/16 4:05 ET Dallas -3 At Seattle 41.5

9/16 4:05 ET Washington -3 At St. Louis 45.5

9/16 4:25 ET At Pittsburgh -6 NY Jets 41.5

9/16 4:25 ET At San Diego -6 Tennessee 43

9/16 8:20 ET At San Francisco -6.5 Detroit 46.5

9/17 8:35 ET At Atlanta -3 Denver 51

[bowiac]

My picks, based off lines at Betonline (slightly more favorable on the Giants). Picks in bold. My favorite bets are the Falcons, the 49ers, and Baltimore.

1. Bears +6 @ Packers.
2. Bucs + 9 @ Giants.
3. Arizona + 14 @ Patriots
4. Vikings - 1.5 @ Colts
5. Saints - 2.5 @ Panthers
6. Chiefs + 3.5 @ Bills
7. Ravens + 2.5 @ Eagles.
8. Raiders -2.5 @ Dolphins
9. Browns + 7 @ Cincy.
10. Texans - 7 @ Jaguars
11. Cowboys - 3 @ Pistol Pete
12. Redskins - 3 @ Rams
13. Titans + 6 @ Chargers
14. Jets + 6 @ Steelers
15. Lions + 7 @ 49ers
16. Broncos + 3 @ Falcons

Edited by bowiac, 12 September 2012 - 11:47 AM.

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

1. Bears +6 @ Packers.
2. Bucs + 9 @ Giants.
3. Arizona + 14 @ Patriots
4. Vikings - 1.5 @ Colts
5. Saints - 2.5 @ Panthers
6. Chiefs + 3.5 @ Bills
7. Ravens + 2.5 @ Eagles.
8. Raiders -2.5 @ Dolphins
9. Browns + 7 @ Cincy.
10. Texans - 7 @ Jaguars
11. Cowboys - 3 @ Pistol Pete
12. Redskins - 3 @ Rams
13. Titans + 6 @ Chargers
14. Jets + 6 @ Steelers
15. Lions + 7 @ 49ers
16. Broncos + 3 @ Falcons

Last week: 7-9
Overall: 7-9

[Mystic Merlin]

I miss the NE-TEN line already.

[bombdiggz]

NE -5 $500; ML $720 to win $300 W, W
Philly -8.5 $600 L
Atlanta -2.5 $600 W
Buffalo +3 $80; ML $50 to win $65 L, L

PIT +3 $600; ML $250 to win $300 L, L

BAL -7 $100; BAL ML $325 to win $100 W, W
Oakland ML $110 to win $100, O 48 $100 L, L

Week 1 Result: 5-7, $-200

Week 2 Thursday Night:
Chicago +5.5 $350
Chicago ML $125 to win $250
Under 51.5 $150

I expect to make a big play on Chicago plus the points, but I'm hoping for some public money on GB before kick off. Missed an opportunity to grab it at +6 at Bovada this morning.

Edited by bombdiggz, 13 September 2012 - 07:22 PM.

[Corsi]

The line on tonight's Chicago @ Green Bay game is moving a bit. Opened at GB (-7) and has moved to (-5) on Bovada.

LineProjector.com has it at (-4.5), but not sure where they get their spreads from.

I parlayed GB and Over 51.5

edit: ha, wow, just saw bombdiggz post. We'll see what happens tonight A buddy of mine took GB -6 and I was psyched to have hesitated and when I saw them at -5, I bit.

Edited by Corsi, 13 September 2012 - 11:29 AM.

[Needlenose's Pole]

1. Bears +6 @ Packers.
2. Bucs + 9 @ Giants.
3. Arizona + 14 @ Patriots
4. Vikings - 1.5 @ Colts
5. Saints - 2.5 @ Panthers
6. Chiefs + 3.5 @ Bills
7. Ravens + 2.5 @ Eagles.
8. Raiders -2.5 @ Dolphins
9. Browns + 7 @ Cincy.
10. Texans - 7 @ Jaguars
11. Cowboys - 3 @ Seahawks
12.Redskins - 3 @ Rams
13. Titans + 6 @ Chargers
14. Jets + 6 @ Steelers
15. Lions + 7 @ 49ers
16. Broncos + 3 @ Falcons

[Stitch01]

Just as a headsup to those that bet online, the legislation Reid/Kyl is working on to regulate online poker has a nice clause in it that would make all transactions on non-licensed sites (i.e. sports gambling sites) subject to forfeiture including player winnings. Given how our forfeiture laws work, its a problem for players.

Bill probably dies, but something to stay alert to.

Edited by Stitch01, 13 September 2012 - 02:16 PM.

[OldSaintJohn]

This kind of thing is exactly why I suck at betting and I would do nothing but lose if i bet regularly. But I look at a 4-team tease this week that is +200 includes Pats -7, Giants Pick, Ravens +10 and Jets +13 and I struggle to figure out which team will screw me (but it'll probably be the Jets). Again, this is why I'm a loser

[JakeRae]

This kind of thing is exactly why I suck at betting and I would do nothing but lose if i bet regularly. But I look at a 4-team tease this week that is +200 includes Pats -7, Giants Pick, Ravens +10 and Jets +13 and I struggle to figure out which team will screw me (but it'll probably be the Jets). Again, this is why I'm a loser

The issue with a tease like that isn't that any of those are bad bets. They are all awesome bets. It's that the combination of 4 really good bets is still not that great. If you at 75% to win each of those picks individually, you are 32% to win that tease. That's a losing bet even though all of those lines are great on their own. This comment is not on that bet itself, just to illustrate the general property of why big teases are tough to win even when they look too good to be true.

[maufman]

I took the Pats to cover this week. Naturally, this means you should take the Cards and the points.

[bowiac]

I took the Pats to cover this week. Naturally, this means you should take the Cards and the points.

On the one hand, history tells me the Patriots win this game approximately 59-0. On the other hand, 14 is a lot of points. The 30-17 "never in doubt" outcome is a pretty real possibility here.

I think the Patriots are probably the bet, but I'm a lunatic when it comes to New England. I think they're one or two breaks away from going 19-0.

[bbc23]

The health of Ryan Matthews is making Titans +6.5 look mighty interesting, might be good to take if you don't believe Matthews plays

[berezina]

Last week: 6-10


CHI +6 GBP*

ARI +13.5 NEP*
*TBB +8 NYG
*KCC +3 BUF
*NOS -3 CAR
MIN -3 IND*
*OAK -1.5 MIA
CLE +7 CIN*
*HOU -6.5 JAX
*BAL +3 PHI

*WAS -3.5 STL
*DAL -3 SEA
*NYJ +4.5 PIT
TEN +6.5 SDC*

*DET +7 SFF

DEN +3 ATL*

[bombdiggz]

I'm with you mauf on the Pats. 14 is a lot of points and the "sharps" are pounding the other side this morning. Taking the points are definitely the conventional move and has positive ROI looking at historical similar spreads, but I think the Brady/Belichick duo is a different animal. Never mind Gillette stadium, a west coast team playing an early game on the east coast, and most importantly how talented this Patriots team is.

Week 2 - Sunday

NE -13.5 $600
Bal +3 $400
Hou -6.5 $400
Cincinnati -7 $200
KCC +3 $150
NO -3 $100
Sea +3.5 $100

(leans on TBB, Mia, StL, and SDC but I'm not pulling the trigger)

Monday night

Edit: ATL ML $300 to win $200, O 50 $200

Edited by bombdiggz, 17 September 2012 - 05:10 PM.

[Corsi]

Only bet I rolled with today was a parlay of Bengals -7 and Over 38.

Just hit the over, we'll see about the rest.

[SoxScout]

BAL -2.5 vs NE

[crystalline]

I'm with you mauf on the Pats. 14 is a lot of points and the "sharps" are pounding the other side this morning. Taking the points are definitely the conventional move and has positive ROI looking at historical similar spreads

Not 100% sure whether you meant there was a lot of action for or against the Pats, but if you meant that late money was coming in for Ari, the practice comments make me wonder: if you had even casual inside knowlege of practice perf how much does that help you in the long term? Hell it might practically be worth it to get aerial video on some of practice if it gives you an advantage to exploit

[bowiac]

Not 100% sure whether you meant there was a lot of action for or against the Pats, but if you meant that late money was coming in for Ari, the practice comments make me wonder: if you had even casual inside knowlege of practice perf how much does that help you in the long term? Hell it might practically be worth it to get aerial video on some of practice if it gives you an advantage to exploit

I think this is overthinking it.

1. After the fact comments that this wasn't a good week of practice don't mean all that much. I suspect we'd hear similar comments after any upset loss.

2. Just as a matter of policy, picking against a 14 point spread is a good idea, especially early in the season. 14 points is close to the biggest possible differential you'll see between teams. (Unless you're dealing with a historic team or something). If this was the 2-12 Cardinals coming into town to play the 12-2 Patriots, then maybe a 14 point spread is correct. But early in the year, there's just not enough data to justify that kind of spread on anyone. That's a spread that's hard to justify.

[jkempa]

SF is giving only 7 to the Vikings at Bovada right now. I just jumped on that.

[maufman]

SF is giving only 7 to the Vikings at Bovada right now. I just jumped on that.

That's a nice bet. So are the Giants, who are only favored by 1 at Carolina Thursday night.

Figured the Packers would be favored by a TD at Seattle, and was completely ready to take the Seahawks and the points. But GB is only favored by 3.5, so that's a tough call.

[phragle]

@JonVrecsics @sidelinescouts Home teams are +5.94 PPG while being favored by 2.61 PPG this year not counting tonight. Small sample size caveats apply.

[Corsi]

I'm loving the Saints -9 at home against KC.

No way that team goes falls to 0-3 in a home game against arguably the worst team in the league.

I expect them to put a whipping on the Chiefs.

[maufman]

I'm loving the Saints -9 at home against KC.

No way that team goes falls to 0-3 in a home game against arguably the worst team in the league.

I expect them to put a whipping on the Chiefs.

The Saints' D made the Panthers look like the Packers yesterday -- a week after the Panthers looked dreadful against the Bucs (who yielded 600+ yards to the Giants yesterday).

Even with their 0-2 start, the Saints are still overrated. They'll probably win that game on the field, but I'd take the Chiefs and the points.

[bowiac]

@JonVrecsics @sidelinescouts Home teams are +5.94 PPG while being favored by 2.61 PPG this year not counting tonight. Small sample size caveats apply.

This goes towards my "replacement refs increase home field advantage" theory.

[bowiac]

Eh, actually, nevermind. Backchecking, this is not a particularly big differential. The effect was bigger in 2010, and the same size in 2011. In 2009 it was negative.

Edited by bowiac, 17 September 2012 - 11:55 PM.

[bowiac]

As an aside, I've got a pretty good database of every NFL spread since 1978 that I've put together now. Are there any queries people have that they'd like to me to check? I'm as interested for academic purposes as anything else, so I'm looking for good questions as much as anything.

[Dgilpin]

Browns +3
Cardinals +4
Steelers -5
Seahawks +3.5

Browns best bet