All the data I've seen has suggested that home field advantage is mostly an officiating effect. If this is in fact the case, isn't there a strong case for betting home teams this week on the basis that the replacement refs are going to be more susceptible to crowd noise issues?
Building on this a bit, I just saw a stat that 29 pass interference penalties were called in Week 1, compares to 25 total in Weeks 1 and 2 of last season combined
With drives being sustained due to PI penalties, scoring is up. Is this being baked into the over/unders? If not, it seems like something that can be taken advantage of.
Now, I know it's only been 1 week but here's a look at Week 1 2012 vs 2011 season average
So total yards are down, but it's almost entirely a product of rushing yards being down. Passing yards are up considerably, and this is independent of any yardage gained on Pass Interference penalties. Points per Game is up by nearly 5 points.
Here's a look at Week 1 Over/Under results vs their lines, with all Overs highlighted in red.
I've only recently had an interest in this stuff, so is this typical?
Furthermore, is there any place to download files of historial NFL team stats by week, and perhaps Vegas results by week?
Would love the pivot the data and see what's in there.
edit: fixed PPG averages
Edited by Corsi, 11 September 2012 - 08:48 PM.