421 replies to this topic

[SoxScout]

Wednesday

8:30 PM EST  

Dallas  4 45

NY Giants  -4



Sunday

1:00 PM EST  

New England  -6 47

Tennessee  6



1:00 PM EST  

Indianapolis  9.5 41.5

Chicago  -9.5



1:00 PM EST  

Jacksonville  4 38

Minnesota  -4



1:00 PM EST  

Miami  11.5 43

Houston  -11.5



1:00 PM EST  

Philadelphia  -9 41.5

Cleveland  9



1:00 PM EST  

Atlanta  -3 41.5

Kansas City  3



1:00 PM EST  

Washington  9 49.5

New Orleans  -9



1:00 PM EST  

Buffalo  3 40.5

NY Jets  -3



1:00 PM EST  

St Louis  9 46.5

Detroit  -9



4:25 PM EST  

Carolina  -1 46.5

Tampa Bay  1



4:25 PM EST  

Seattle  -2.5 41

Arizona  2.5



4:25 PM EST  

San Francisco  5.5 45

Green Bay  -5.5



8:20 PM EST  

Pittsburgh  1 44.5

Denver  -1



Monday

7:00 PM EST  

Cincinnati  6 41

Baltimore  -6



10:15 PM EST  

San Diego  -1 47.5

Oakland  1

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Dallas 4
NY Giants -4

New England -6
Tennessee 6

Indianapolis 9.5
Chicago -9.5

Jacksonville 4
Minnesota -4

Miami 11.5
Houston -11.5

Philadelphia -9
Cleveland 9

Atlanta -3
Kansas City 3

Washington 9
New Orleans -9

Buffalo 3
NY Jets -3

St Louis 9
Detroit -9

Carolina -1
Tampa Bay 1

Seattle -2.5
Arizona 2.5

San Francisco 5.5
Green Bay -5.5

Pittsburgh 1
Denver -1

Cincinnati 6
Baltimore -6

San Diego -1
Oakland 1

Edited by Kenny F'ing Powers, 04 September 2012 - 10:28 AM.

[Rick Burlesons Yam Bag]

Can anyone recommend a good online book for NFL and college FB and just give me a sentence or two on why they like them? I have no interest in playing online poker, just betting football. My bookie is out of the business it would seem.

[Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat]

I use bovada(formerly bodog). Very easy website to use, and I've successfully withdrawn money.
All I use it for is sports.

[SoxScout]

I've used Bovada as well a few times, no issues.

The line on the Pats game actually dropped from -6.5 to -6 yesterday. I'm surprised it's that low in the first place, let along moving in that direction.

[Rick Burlesons Yam Bag]

Yeah, that Patriot line is yummy. I also like Pittsburgh, Atlanta and the G-men.

I hate the big spreads early in the season, but I am going to grab the Eagles too. The Browns really look bad, Haden is suspended and the Eagles defense has looked pretty sharp. 9 points is a big number on the road but I am betting against the Browns as much as I am betting for the Eagles.

[PC Drunken Friar]

Week one i like

Phili -9 over Cleveland

NYJ -3 over Buffalo

St. L +9 over Detroit

T.B +1 over Carolina

[PC Drunken Friar]

DP

Edited by PC Drunken Friar, 04 September 2012 - 11:05 AM.

[Rick Burlesons Yam Bag]

Week one i like

Phili -9 over Cleveland

NYJ -3 over Buffalo

St. L +9 over Detroit

T.B +1 over Carolina

Yeah, that Tampa line looks pretty decent, but new coach has me worried.

Also, I wouldn't touch the Jets with a ten foot pole. The Bills are looking pretty punchy.

[PC Drunken Friar]

Yeah, that Tampa line looks pretty decent, but new coach has me worried.

Also, I wouldn't touch the Jets with a ten foot pole. The Bills are looking pretty punchy.

I have a system that has worked very well the past few seasons for the first 2 weeks of the year. I look fumble recovery discrepancies. So these 4 games have the largest this week...

Jets were -4, vs. Buffalo +6
Phili was -4, vs Cleve +5
St. L was -7 vs. Det +6
T.B was -6 vs. Car at +4

Might be a silly way to look at it, but the first couple weeks are crapshoots IMO and it has worked out so far the past three years.

[Red Averages]

Is that fumble recoveries in preseason or fumble recoveries from the previous season? I could probably raise valid concerns against either. Also the fact that you ignore other turnovers is a bit puzzling...

[Needlenose's Pole]

NY Giants -4
New England -6
Indianapolis 9.5
Minnesota -4
Houston -11.5
Philadelphia -9
Atlanta -3
New Orleans -9
Buffalo 3
Detroit -9
Carolina -1
Seattle -2.5
Green Bay -5.5
Pittsburgh 1
Baltimore -6
San Diego -1

Edited by Needlenose's Pole, 04 September 2012 - 12:20 PM.

[PC Drunken Friar]

from last season. Just because I think fumbles are mostly the result of luck and expect some sort of return to the mean for both teams. Its not the only criteria I use, but for week one, these make sense for me.

When I say I have a system, its a complete and utter useless system, but one that has done well in the past, for whatever reason.

[SoxScout]

If anyone is looking for a nice consolidated line movement page

Saints went from -9.5 to -7 in a half hour this afternoon.

Edit: Pats down to -5.5

Edited by SoxScout, 04 September 2012 - 06:24 PM.

[TheJodyReedExperience]

Can anyone recommend a good online book for NFL and college FB and just give me a sentence or two on why they like them? I have no interest in playing online poker, just betting football. My bookie is out of the business it would seem.

I've had consistent great service from 5dimes. Payouts have never been an issue and they take deposits through Visa which is nice.

By the way, that tasty -6 on NE is down to -5, I don't think I can stay away from this.

[epraz]

from last season. Just because I think fumbles are mostly the result of luck and expect some sort of return to the mean for both teams. Its not the only criteria I use, but for week one, these make sense for me.

When I say I have a system, its a complete and utter useless system, but one that has done well in the past, for whatever reason.

You are defining the gambler's fallacy before our eyes!

[SMU_Sox]

I'll take 4, NYG, NE, Oak, and Min.

Yeah, let me get 6, I'll add Det and Phi.

Edited by SMU_Sox, 05 September 2012 - 11:48 AM.

[bluefenderstrat]

Not surprisingly, my Visa card rejected my funding transaction with Bovada (I've heard it's hit or miss depending upon the issuing bank). Have you guys funded via Moneygram transfer or whatever?

[berezina]

Wed game: *DAL +3.5 NYG.

Remember that Giants actually got outscored last year during the regular season. A great playoff run doesn't necessarily translate into the following year. DAL has DeMarco Murray healthy - one of the best backs in the league - & has hugely upgraded their biggest weakness, CB, with Carr and Claiborne. I know the history, but I think this could finally be Dallas' year.

[phragle]

NE, SEA, and CAR are virtual locks IMO

[johnmd20]

NE, SEA, and CAR are virtual locks IMO

Nothing in the NFL is a lock, of course. That's a dangerous thought to have going into a bet, in my experience.

[bowiac]

Seattle is a virtual lock at a 2.5 point favorite on the road? Huh?

[Marciano490]

Not surprisingly, my Visa card rejected my funding transaction with Bovada (I've heard it's hit or miss depending upon the issuing bank). Have you guys funded via Moneygram transfer or whatever?

I've never had an issue funding my Bovada account with my Visa, unfortunately.

[phragle]

Seattle is a virtual lock at a 2.5 point favorite on the road? Huh?

Yup. I watched every SEA game and most of every AZ game this preseason. SEA could be this years surprise playoff team with Wilson, AZ will fight STL for last in the division.

[maufman]

I suck at football gambling, so Pats fans here will be happy to know I took the Titans and the points.

[bowiac]

Yup. I watched every SEA game and most of every AZ game this preseason. SEA could be this years surprise playoff team with Wilson, AZ will fight STL for last in the division.

Not to go all Iverson on you, but you're talking to me about preseason?

[phragle]

Not to go all Iverson on you, but you're talking to me about preseason?

When all the starters are playing it's pretty damn close to a real game.

[SoxScout]

I suck at football gambling, so Pats fans here will be happy to know I took the Titans and the points.

+5.5? What is your thinking? The Pats OL is so bad they wont score, or the D is still bad they wont stop them.

[88 MVP]

When all the starters are playing it's pretty damn close to a real game.

No, it isn't. The preseason is meaningless. The starters don't play long enough for it to represent a meaningful sample size and teams employ fairly vanilla game plans. The 2008 Lions went 4-0. 4-0!! And you're wagering money based on pre-season results?

[Stitch01]

Not sure how much money you guys are trying to put on, but Ive always had much better luck with my Visa with small deposits rather than larger ones. If it gets rejected, might want to try again with a smaller amount. Worst case is it triggers a fraud flag from your bank, but Ive always been able to clear it up by just verifying I was completing an internet transaction. YMMV.

Got the Pats too early, going to jump on more of that at -5. Might be homerific on my part, but Football Outsiders is heavy on the Pats this week as well. Also doing a six point tease/ties reduce with Buffalo +2.5 with Arizona +2.5 and taking Carolina.

Small plays possible on Cle and Wash getting the points and might put a really small flyer on the Browns to win outright for lolz.

Is it just me or are there a lot of big lines for week 1?

PC, I dont use fumble recoveries as much in Week 1 but i like that line of thought very much as the season goes on.

EDIT: Bovada and 5dimes seem the best books for me now, but unfortunately havent had to verify payout efficiency in awhile.

Edited by Stitch01, 06 September 2012 - 01:23 PM.

[phragle]

No, it isn't. The preseason is meaningless. The starters don't play long enough for it to represent a meaningful sample size and teams employ fairly vanilla game plans. The 2008 Lions went 4-0. 4-0!! And you're wagering money based on pre-season results?

I don't even know the results, so no. I know it's easy for you to just say pre-season is meaningless, but it isn't. If you're just looking at the stats and results in a quantitative method then sure it's useless, but that's not what I did. Both AZ and SEA had heated QB competitions and all the QBs were given ample time working with and against starters. That and a trained eye watching and evaluating with a qualitative method, is far from meaningless. Seattle is a good team, Arizona isn't.

[SoxScout]

With both your trained eye in judging preseason performance and your expertise in draft knowledge I can't believe an NFL front office hasn't scooped you up yet.

[88 MVP]

I don't even know the results, so no. I know it's easy for you to just say pre-season is meaningless, but it isn't. If you're just looking at the stats and results in a quantitative method then sure it's useless, but that's not what I did. Both AZ and SEA had heated QB competitions and all the QBs were given ample time working with and against starters. That and a trained eye watching and evaluating with a qualitative method, is far from meaningless. Seattle is a good team, Arizona isn't.

When I said "small sample size," I didn't just mean in terms of quantitative analysis. To focus on your hard-on for Seattle, Russell Wilson played a total of 21 series in the preseason:

TEN - 6 series, all in the second half.
DEN - 6 series, all in the second half.
KC - 7 series, started, played into second half.
OAK - 2 series, started.

Yes, he went nuts against Kansas City. He also took the bulk of his reps this preseason against 2nd and 3rd stringers. None of those teams went into the games thinking "How do we game plan to shut down Russell Wilson?"

Edited by 88 MVP, 06 September 2012 - 08:29 PM.

[phragle]

When I said "small sample size," I didn't just mean in terms of quantitative analysis. To focus on your hard-on for Seattle, Russell Wilson played a total of 21 series in the preseason:

TEN - 6 series, all in the second half.
DEN - 6 series, all in the second half.
KC - 7 series, started, played into second half.
OAK - 2 series, started.

Yes, he went nuts against Kansas City. He also took the bulk of his reps this preseason against 2nd and 3rd stringers. None of those teams went into the games thinking "How do we game plan to shut down Russell Wilson?"

So I'm right. Pre-season isn't meaningless.

And lets not forget Wilson took the starters job away from Flynn. Third round quarterbacks don't often come in and take the job away from the well paid starter. Carroll is obviously as impressed as I am.

[88 MVP]

Where did you get that from anything I wrote? To reiterate: 13 of Wilson's 21 series came against backups who were not game planning to stop him. Nothing Russell Wilson or the Seahawks did over the last month has any predictive value come Sunday.

Edited by 88 MVP, 07 September 2012 - 12:40 PM.

[loshjott]

With both your trained eye in judging preseason performance and your expertise in draft knowledge I can't believe an NFL front office hasn't scooped you up yet.

I believe phragle is actually Mike Tannenbaum.

[bowiac]

So I'm right. Pre-season isn't meaningless.

And lets not forget Wilson took the starters job away from Flynn. Third round quarterbacks don't often come in and take the job away from the well paid starter. Carroll is obviously as impressed as I am.

It's not like Pete Carroll is some Quarterback guru. One of the first things he did after taking over the team was trading a good draft pick for Charlie Whitehurst. That Pistol Pete signed Matt Flynn to a big contract, and then gave the job to a 3rd round draft pick also doesn't mean anything. Wilson didn't beat out Peyton Manning here. He beat out a guy with essentially no track record, and no pedigree.

Look, I like Wilson. I think short QBs deserve more of a shot. I just think it's funny to say that the 7-9 team going on the road to an 8-8 team as a favorite(!) is a lock of some sort. Traditionally road favorites are the biggest suckers bets around. Can I ask, do you think Seattle should be favored by 8.5 if this game was at home?

[phragle]

It's not like Pete Carroll is some Quarterback guru. One of the first things he did after taking over the team was trading a good draft pick for Charlie Whitehurst. That Pistol Pete signed Matt Flynn to a big contract, and then gave the job to a 3rd round draft pick also doesn't mean anything. Wilson didn't beat out Peyton Manning here. He beat out a guy with essentially no track record, and no pedigree.

Wrong. It means something. Everything means something. It may mean a little it may mean a lot but it means something.

Look, I like Wilson. I think short QBs deserve more of a shot. I just think it's funny to say that the 7-9 team going on the road to an 8-8 team as a favorite(!) is a lock of some sort.

Seattle had a far better point differential than AZ. They were the better team last year too, and that was with Jackson and Whitehurst.

Traditionally road favorites are the biggest suckers bets around. Can I ask, do you think Seattle should be favored by 8.5 if this game was at home?

Where's the 8.5 coming from? Last year you said home field is worth about 2 points. Has that changed?

[phragle]

Where did you get that from anything I wrote? To reiterate: 13 of Wilson's 21 series came against backups who were not game planning to stop him. Nothing Russell Wilson or the Seahawks did over the last month has any predicative value come Sunday.

Actually the 13-21 number is wrong. TEN played a majority of their defensive starters in the 3rd quarter.

Would you like to take AZ +2.5 vs SEA for $50 to the Jimmy Fund?

[SMU_Sox]

Sea's 2011 season DVOA: -0.7%, 19th
Ari's 2011 season DVOA: -18.9, 29th

Sea's 2011 weighted DVOA: 8.7%, 12th
Ari's 2011 weighted DVOA: -15.4%, 27th

However FO says that, with hardly any degree of confidence, to take Ari.

[bowiac]

Where's the 8.5 coming from? Last year you said home field is worth about 2 points. Has that changed?

Conventional wisdom usually pegs home field as being worth around 3 points. You're right that my analysis found it had recently slipped to a smaller figure, closer to 2.5 if I recall (I don't think it was 2, but I can check).

What do you think would be a fair line for Arizona @ Seattle?

[phragle]

Conventional wisdom usually pegs home field as being worth around 3 points. You're right that my analysis found it had recently slipped to a smaller figure, closer to 2.5 if I recall (I don't think it was 2, but I can check).

What do you think would be a fair line for Arizona @ Seattle?

Is this it? http://sonsofsamhorn...ost__p__3683103

[88 MVP]

Would you like to take AZ +2.5 vs SEA for $50 to the Jimmy Fund?

While I wouldn't mind a wager for the Jimmy Fund, I don't necessarily like Arizona in that game. I just thought declaring Seattle to be a "lock" based on preseason results wasn't that bright.

[phragle]

While I wouldn't mind a wager for the Jimmy Fund, I don't necessarily like Arizona in that game. I just thought declaring Seattle to be a "lock" based on preseason results wasn't that bright.

Ok that's fine. I never meant to imply that it was just preseason play that made my like Seattle.

[bowiac]

Is this it? http://sonsofsamhorn...ost__p__3683103

That's it, yeah. I think the 2.34 number is the salient one there.

What do you think is a fair line for this game?

Edited by bowiac, 07 September 2012 - 01:38 PM.

[phragle]

Sea's 2011 season DVOA: -0.7%, 19th
Ari's 2011 season DVOA: -18.9, 29th

Sea's 2011 weighted DVOA: 8.7%, 12th
Ari's 2011 weighted DVOA: -15.4%, 27th

However FO says that, with hardly any degree of confidence, to take Ari.

This is if it was a game that happened last season right? I thought of that. If it did happen last year it's not a game I'd bet.

SMU, did you ever post your results from your DVOA based method?

[Stitch01]

I concur on Wilson for the most part and bet Seattle to win the West at +450 or whatever the line was, I cant remember exactly

That said, I like Arizona +2.5 a lot in a tease through the 3 and 7.

[phragle]

That's it, yeah. I think the 2.34 number is the salient one there.

What do you think is a fair line for this game?

I would have thought the 1.89.

I don't know. I wouldn't bet it if it was -9 though. Philly @ Cleveland is a similar game and that one is Philly -9.

[SMU_Sox]

This is if it was a game that happened last season right? I thought of that. If it did happen last year it's not a game I'd bet.

SMU, did you ever post your results from your DVOA based method?

I didn't because I had some mixed results. Although we did very well for the season (around 70% accurate) MDL back-tested it and it was not as accurate going back. That and it is never as accurate early on.

Also they state they are around 60-65% accurate against the spread. You can modify what they do and get better results (we did).

[ilol@u]

... The line dropped again, and the Pats are now a 4.5 favorite over the Titans. What is going on?