1019 replies to this topic

[Rovin Romine]

There's not really a thread devoted to the rotation, but whenever I see possible starting pitchers, Lackey is listed as our #5, which seems likely. From what I recall, his recovery is on schedule, and he should be able to pitch early on in the season.

Does anyone have any projections/guesses for how he might do?

[SoxScout]

Speier on RF:

The Sox, according to one source familiar with the team’s thinking, are open to the idea of Victorino on a three-year deal. That, after all, is the likely cost of admission for serious talks about a player who is 32 years old. Such a deal would not only give the Sox a starting right fielder (and alternate center fielder for Ellsbury this year and Jackie Bradley Jr. in 2014 and beyond), but it would also buy time for the likes of Bryce Brentz to develop. (After Brentz and Bradley, no Sox outfielder projects to be a big league-ready regular for at least a couple years.) A fourth year would represent a somewhat less comfortable proposition, however, particularly given that Victorino is coming off his worst season even in terms of average, OBP, slugging and OPS.

How far the team might go on Swisher remains to be seen (though it’s worth noting that Swisher would cost the team a draft pick), though it looks like his market may not gain clarity until later in the offseason, as colleague Rob Bradford notes that Swisher might not sign until after Josh Hamilton lands somewhere; Swisher would represent a top fallback for teams in the market for Hamilton.

In some respects, the left-handed Choo — who hit .283/.373/.441/.815 in 2012, with a .289/.381/.465/.847 career line — might represent the best fit of all, though the Indians are understandably holding out for a significant ransom in a potential trade, something that the Sox might be reluctant to pay for a player who would be under team control for only one season before reaching free agency.

.244/.311/.387 vs RHP over the last 3 years. Not a big fan of this idea.

Edited by SoxScout, 03 December 2012 - 05:14 PM.

[RedOctober3829]

Speier on RF:



.244/.311/.387 vs RHP over the last 3 years. Not a big fan of this idea.

Again, if the cost of OFs are based on BJ Upton's deal, pay the premium for Hamilton.

[Savin Hillbilly]

.244/.311/.387 vs RHP over the last 3 years. Not a big fan of this idea.

Me neither. Although the one thing to be said for VIctorino is that he'd be a good defensive fit for Fenway's RF, since he's got CF range and a good arm. And since he can also play center, he's a good hedge against an Ellsbury trade in the short run.

OTOH, I don't like the idea of giving a 32-year-old who just had an off year a 3-year deal. Who's to say whether it's an off year or the first step down the slippery slope of decline?

Not to mention the fact that we're weak against RHP already.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Speier on RF:



.244/.311/.387 vs RHP over the last 3 years. Not a big fan of this idea.

Does anyone have a pulse on Victorino's arm? Could he handle RF? I know he has the range but...I have no interest in him on a 3 year deal, nor to play RF. If they were going to get aggressive and move Ellsbury for pitching or a SS AND could get Victorino on a two year deal for moderate money, then I would be intrigued. But for RF they need to be adding a significant bat. It should be Swisher, Hamilton or sadly, even Ross before they consider Victorino.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Again, if the cost of OFs are based on BJ Upton's deal, pay the premium for Hamilton.

Yup.And where is the market for victorino being able to demand 3 years? The Span trade took one of the musical chairs out of the equation and with Pagan, Bourne and Victorino left, we have the Phillies and Giants being players.

[941827]

Yup.And where is the market for victorino being able to demand 3 years? The Span trade took one of the musical chairs out of the equation and with Pagan, Bourne and Victorino left, we have the Phillies and Giants being players.

Pagan signed today -- 4/$40mm.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Pagan signed today -- 4/$40mm.

Didn't see that. So even one less player in this game. So now we have the Phillies, who know all his warts and dumped him last year. Who is else is going to be in the market for a CF? The Reds maybe, but he's not an improvement over Stubbs. I don't see where the leverage is.

[SoxScout]

On NESN Gammons says the Sox haven't talked to Swisher and probably wont going forward.

Ben says they will add at least 1 more outfielder, probably two. Speaks glowingly of Napoli, of course.

"We would rather have a really good RHH over a mediocre LHH, but we are certainly looking to improve and have balance....."

Mentions something along the lines of maybe a superutility LHH.

"Wouldn't close the door on adding to the rotation after adding one more, the biggest addition will be fixing what we have."

Says most of his time has been spent on FA over trades in the 24 hours he has been in Nashville so far.

Edited by SoxScout, 03 December 2012 - 06:15 PM.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Does anyone have a pulse on Victorino's arm? Could he handle RF? I know he has the range but...I have no interest in him on a 3 year deal, nor to play RF. If they were going to get aggressive and move Ellsbury for pitching or a SS AND could get Victorino on a two year deal for moderate money, then I would be intrigued. But for RF they need to be adding a significant bat. It should be Swisher, Hamilton or sadly, even Ross before they consider Victorino.

I think that's a bridge too far. Victorino's defense is more better than Ross's than Ross's offense is better than Victorino's. (Don't ask me to say that again.) What I want for RF, given the team's current constitution, is a LHH or a real switch-hitter (Victorino is a SHINO) with some power. But if we have to choose from guys who are weak hitters against RHP, I'd take Victorino over Ross, and at least probably get above-average RF defense.

[SoxLegacy]

Well, the interest in Victorino is a bit puzzling to me, especially so with Kalish reportedly healthy and hopefully able to contribute meaningfully in 2013, unless it's a straight platoon of Gomes/Kalish in LF and Victorino in RF?

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I think that's a bridge too far. Victorino's defense is more better than Ross's than Ross's offense is better than Victorino's. (Don't ask me to say that again.) What I want for RF, given the team's current constitution, is a LHH or a real switch-hitter (Victorino is a SHINO) with some power. But if we have to choose from guys who are weak hitters against RHP, I'd take Victorino over Ross, and at least probably get above-average RF defense.

Just a matter of taste I guess. I look at Victorino and see a guy that fell off a cliff offensively last year and hasn't played RF since 2007. To assume he could plug right into RF at Fenway to the tune of making up 100 OPS points against RHs (Ross may not be a world beater but he still had a .729 against RHP) with his glove I think is arguable at best. And that is to say nothing of the fact that he may continue regressing. I'm not saying I'd like to give Ross a 3 year deal either, but I'd feel better about it than with victorino.

I agree though, a LHH with some pop I think is the goal.

[Cellar-Door]

Well, the interest in Victorino is a bit puzzling to me, especially so with Kalish reportedly healthy and hopefully able to contribute meaningfully in 2013, unless it's a straight platoon of Gomes/Kalish in LF and Victorino in RF?

Kalish has shown no real indication so far that he can hit at the major league level. Going into the year with him as the no-doubt starting RF seems like a very bad idea to me. Victorino is older, and likely in decline, but he is proven above average MLB player. I'd much rather a 1 or 2 year deal than 3, and I'd rather Swisher instead, but if Victorino is the best they can find in FA or trade talks he seems a clear improvement on Kalish.

[Rough Carrigan]

Kalish has shown no real indication so far that he can hit at the major league level. Going into the year with him as the no-doubt starting RF seems like a very bad idea to me. Victorino is older, and likely in decline, but he is proven above average MLB player. I'd much rather a 1 or 2 year deal than 3, and I'd rather Swisher instead, but if Victorino is the best they can find in FA or trade talks he seems a clear improvement on Kalish.

I disagree about Kalish. At age 22, he played part of the 2010 season with the Sox, getting 179 plate appearances and putting up an OPS+ of 88. Not great but at that age and on first exposure to the majors, not inconsistent with his being a guy who will hit at the major league level. Has he proved it? No. But Shane Victorino's OPS+ last year was . . . 91. Yes, this was a drop from his previous years but it's not so open and shut a case.

[Cellar-Door]

I disagree about Kalish. At age 22, he played part of the 2010 season with the Sox, getting 179 plate appearances and putting up an OPS+ of 88. Not great but at that age and on first exposure to the majors, not inconsistent with his being a guy who will hit at the major league level. Has he proved it? No. But Shane Victorino's OPS+ last year was . . . 91. Yes, this was a drop from his previous years but it's not so open and shut a case.

A small sample from 2 years ago (especially an 88 OPS+) isn't exactly enough to make me say he's a legit MLB hitter, especially since he followed it up two years later with an abysmal year (also small sample). Victorino is coming off his worst year ever, but he has a carreer OPS+ of 102. He's a legit MLB outfielder, something we are quite short on. Kalish is not the kind of player any team, much less a team with the spending power of the Red Sox should be counting on, he has potential, but he's 24 years old and it has been 2 years since he put up even decent numbers at any level, some of that could have been the injuries, but I wouldn't call him a sure bet even to make the big league club never mind be the undisputed starter in RF.

[SoxLegacy]

I guess I am closer to Carrigan's take on this--I think there is a lot more upside with Kalish than Victorino. That being said, I think he needs to prove himself to be ready to be a regular OF for the Sox, so I understand Cellar-Door's reservations as well. Still, I think there's a better chance that Kalish duplicates or exceeds Victorino's numbers rather than Victorino returning to his form of 2011.

[Rough Carrigan]

A small sample from 2 years ago (especially an 88 OPS+) isn't exactly enough to make me say he's a legit MLB hitter, especially since he followed it up two years later with an abysmal year (also small sample). Victorino is coming off his worst year ever, but he has a carreer OPS+ of 102. He's a legit MLB outfielder, something we are quite short on. Kalish is not the kind of player any team, much less a team with the spending power of the Red Sox should be counting on, he has potential, but he's 24 years old and it has been 2 years since he put up even decent numbers at any level, some of that could have been the injuries, but I wouldn't call him a sure bet even to make the big league club never mind be the undisputed starter in RF.

You're not giving any allowance to Kalish for having injured his shoulder in 2011, an injury from which he's only recovered full strength now, according to reports.

[Cellar-Door]

You're not giving any allowance to Kalish for having injured his shoulder in 2011, an injury from which he's only recovered full strength now, according to reports.

Sure I am, I think he should be an option, but depending on him to be the starter seems crazy to me. How many times have we heard a guy is "feeling the best he has in years". "is in the best shape of his life" I remember it last year with Adrian Gonzalez for example. If he had been a no-doubt stud ike Pedroia or Ryan Braun as rookies, before the injury maybe you hand him the job, but he was a promising young guy, and you need to take into account that there is a strong chance he'll at best pick up where he was 2 years ago, and there is a decent chance he struggles again. I don't think Victorino is a great option, but if it is him or an OF depth chart of Ells, Gomes, Kalish, Nava, Sands, I don't think we'll see Victorino in 2007 again, but something in the 100 OPS+ range seems reasonable, and it makes him tradeable if Kalish does break out,

[LondonSox]

Depending on him vs giving an ageing guy with a serious decline in bat speed a multi year contract.
I would never support giving victorino a three year deal. One year? Fine. Two I wouldn't even want. I'd prefer no. Just say no.

Get lester for Myers done and move on with life.

It pains me the best option is swisher, I can't abide him, I really will struggle to cheer him should that happen

[Plympton91]

You're not giving any allowance to Kalish for having injured his shoulder in 2011, an injury from which he's only recovered full strength now, according to reports.

Just curious, but what was your opinion of the Lowrie - Melancon trade?

I don't understand how a board that was nearly unanimous in declaring Lowrie unreliable due to the string of unrelated and sometime freak injuries he had could possibly be clamoring for the Red Sox to hand a starting job to Ryan Kalish, who has missed large parts of 4 seasons due to injury, including the past 2 all because of an inability to recover from a major shoulder injury and related neck injury. To me, the most likely position for Kalish to be occupying next April is the disabled list as the exertion of full-time baseball activity causes his shoulder and neck to balk yet again.

If he's out of options and the Red Sox are determined to challenge for the first pick in the 2014 amateur draft, then I guess you can hope he starts the season healthy and see how long he lasts before he gets hurt or confirms that his long string of injuries has robbed him of much of the exciting potential he flashed at times in the past. However, if he's got options or if the Red Sox are not content to finish last again, then you've got to go get a major league outfielder and put Kalish at Pawtucket until he shows he's both healthy and productive.

[SoxScout]

Much of the offseason trade speculation involving the Arizona Diamondbacks has centered on right fielder Justin Upton.
But sources told FOXSports.com late Monday that the team has had at least as much trade dialogue in recent days about outfielder Jason Kubel.
Kubel spent his entire career in the American League until signing with the Diamondbacks before this season, and he would fit well with a number of AL clubs – including the Red Sox, Orioles, Yankees, Rays, Rangers and Mariners.

http://mlbbuzz.yardb..._upton/12356500

-6 DRS, -5 UZR/150 in Arizona's LF last season.

.267/.338/.485 vs R last 3 years
.236/.304/.403 vs L last 3 years

[JakeRae]

http://mlbbuzz.yardb..._upton/12356500

-6 DRS, -5 UZR/150 in Arizona's LF last season.

.267/.338/.485 vs R last 3 years
.236/.304/.403 vs L last 3 years

Kubel is thoroughly uninteresting. He has pretty equivalent value to Nava but with a bit more certainty. I prefer the idea of having Kalish and Nava battle for the non-Gomes half of the LF platoon than bringing in a player who isn't really any better than Nava and lacks the upside of Kalish and handing him the job. It would also make sense for at least one of the members of the LF platoon to be a competent defender for strategic late-game reasons.

[Drek717]

Well, the interest in Victorino is a bit puzzling to me, especially so with Kalish reportedly healthy and hopefully able to contribute meaningfully in 2013, unless it's a straight platoon of Gomes/Kalish in LF and Victorino in RF?

I'd say it seems pretty clear that the goal is to sign a full time RF while Kalish platoons with Gomes and Nava serves as the super sub OF by proxy thanks to Kalish moving to CF or RF as needed.

[Rough Carrigan]

Just curious, but what was your opinion of the Lowrie - Melancon trade?

I don't understand how a board that was nearly unanimous in declaring Lowrie unreliable due to the string of unrelated and sometime freak injuries he had could possibly be clamoring for the Red Sox to hand a starting job to Ryan Kalish, who has missed large parts of 4 seasons due to injury, including the past 2 all because of an inability to recover from a major shoulder injury and related neck injury. To me, the most likely position for Kalish to be occupying next April is the disabled list as the exertion of full-time baseball activity causes his shoulder and neck to balk yet again.

If he's out of options and the Red Sox are determined to challenge for the first pick in the 2014 amateur draft, then I guess you can hope he starts the season healthy and see how long he lasts before he gets hurt or confirms that his long string of injuries has robbed him of much of the exciting potential he flashed at times in the past. However, if he's got options or if the Red Sox are not content to finish last again, then you've got to go get a major league outfielder and put Kalish at Pawtucket until he shows he's both healthy and productive.

Well, I guess the answer is that you're right. It is a bit inconsistent. I didn't know that Kalish had any other injury history besides this shoulder thing. Lowrie was a frigging injury magnet. I was also down on Lowrie because his throwing from shortstop seemed really weak.

I guess I'm not saying that they should take the stance that right field is Kalish's and don't worry about that and just set up guys for the other two spots and backups. But I'd be a hell of a lot closer to that than to the position of some folks here that's completely dismissive of him. It's a bit yankee fan-ish to be dismissive of anyone who hasn't already proved it. A bit.

[Corsi]

Victorino appears to be down to 3 teams, the indians, red sox and a 3rd team. not a true mystery team, I just don't know it

https://twitter.com/...059146787364864

[SoxScout]

We do face like 110 RH starters a year right?

.230/ .295/ .332
.271/ .333/ .456
.235/ .306/ .386

That's what he's hit against them the last three years.

Edited by SoxScout, 04 December 2012 - 03:30 PM.

[MikeM]

I'd say it seems pretty clear that the goal is to sign a full time RF while Kalish platoons with Gomes and Nava serves as the super sub OF by proxy thanks to Kalish moving to CF or RF as needed.

Been saying this all winter, with too much stock being placed in Nava's fluffy 186 ab split with a tail off factor in play. The guy realistically projects out to be a soon to be 30 year old AAAA player at this point, imo. He has his uses here, but you don't rationally hand him the off-season keys to a starting position if at all possible. That's more of less just asking to set yourself up for failure.

Increasingly curious to see how much substance is behind these Hamilton taking a shorter length deal rumors. As in the event we were truly looking to bridge the gap to respectability here, solidifying the middle of the lineup ( at people confidently projecting out lineups with Middlebrooks in the #3 hole btw) with a Napoli/Hamilton combo, while possibly viewing Napoli as more of an everyday option at catcher then people are initially assuming, could go a long way towards doing that. That brings us from projecting out a questionably weak lineup, with extra emphasis on the questionably there, into the very real possibility of fielding one of the best. An approach which i guess makes sense on some level, especially in the hypothetical event you were not expecting to make any splashy moves in the SP department beyond adding a guy like Gavin Floyd.


I get there's a lot of people around here that seemingly hate the concept of Hamilton, but let's be real here for a second. Concerns aside for a moment, we are talking about a potentially perfect surface fit for this roster atm. I mean if we are already out there looking to possibly pay the premium on a Nick Swisher, and Hamilton could be had for a similar amount of years, it's worth the long hard look.

[OttoC]

Say what you want about Nava but he had the second-highest OBP on the team last year (excluding Franklin Morales).

[RedOctober3829]

@nickcafardo: Red Sox front runners on Shane Victorino. Offered three year $38 mill deal.

[Laser Show]

Nick Cafardo ‏@nickcafardo
Red Sox front runners on Shane Victorino. Offered three year $38 mill deal.

You've gotta be kidding me...

[foulkehampshire]

You've gotta be kidding me...

Looks like they're going to be shipping off Ellsbury now.

[RedOctober3829]

Please, please, PLEASE sign Hamilton if you're willing to go that high for a marginally worse player. Hamilton would be perfect for RF in Fenway. Victorino at that price is insanely stupid.

[Cellar-Door]

Ok, so when I said Victorino at 2 years wouldn't be bad and I'd consider a 3rd.... I didn't mean at 12.5M per year!
That would be truly hideous, I thought he would be getting offers in the 3 year 18-24M range, tops.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I'd rather give Hamilton 3/$80 than victorino 3/$38.

(null)

[MikeM]

@nickcafardo: Red Sox front runners on Shane Victorino. Offered three year $38 mill deal.

All the more reason we need to be taking a serious look at just paying the premium on Josh Hamilton.

If we go out and sign Victorino this winter, a year from now we'll be right here speculating the possibility of completely eating the remaining 2 years of that contract in the attempt to bring in something better. Book it.

[RedOctober3829]

Morosi

@jonmorosi: #RedSox may not be done making moves yet. They have interest in Yunel Escobar, source says.

[RedOctober3829]

@ESPNJoeyMac: Cherington said wouldn't rule out adding another outfielder.

[SoxScout]

2. Taijuan Walker, rhp
3. Danny Hultzen, lhp
4. James Paxton, lhp
5. Nick Franklin, ss/2b
6. Brandon Maurer, rhp
7. Carter Capps, rhp
8. Stefen Romero, 2b
9. Brad Miller, ss
10. Victor Sanchez, rhp

How far down the Mariners prospect list would you have to go before you rejected that player for Ellsbury? if they offered James Paxton for Ells would you say no?

Edited by SoxScout, 04 December 2012 - 06:13 PM.

[E5 Yaz]

@ESPNJoeyMac: Cherington said wouldn't rule out adding another outfielder.

With CFs at a premium, maybe they think they can get a strong return for Ellsbury and play Victorino in CF for a season as Bradley gets ready to take over

[Jordu]

Red Sox started 2012 with $175M in payroll. Right now, with Victorino, they're at about $123M for 2013.

Let's say they want to cap payroll at $150M for 2013 (humor me). That leaves them with $27M of 2013 money to spend on talent between now and July 31.

There's a lot more rebuilding yet to come.

[Cellar-Door]

With CFs at a premium, maybe they think they can get a strong return for Ellsbury and play Victorino in CF for a season as Bradley gets ready to take over

Yeah I could see that. If they think he'll rebound some from last year he is useful even if they re-sign Ells, or Bradley is ready in 2014. I think he might be tradeable in his 2nd or 3rd year if he puts up an OPS+ over 100. He's about the same quality player as Pagan and only a year older. The market price on CF seems to be high, and likely to stay there for the next two years, I'm not crazy about the deal but it does give them nice flexibility if they move Ellsbury or he gets hurt again.

[Rasputin]

Yeah I could see that. If they think he'll rebound some from last year he is useful even if they re-sign Ells, or Bradley is ready in 2014. I think he might be tradeable in his 2nd or 3rd year if he puts up an OPS+ over 100. He's about the same quality player as Pagan and only a year older. The market price on CF seems to be high, and likely to stay there for the next two years, I'm not crazy about the deal but it does give them nice flexibility if they move Ellsbury or he gets hurt again.

Yes, this. Flexibility seems to be a very big thing. Napoli can play first or catch. Victorino gives the ability to trade Ellsbury without having to made another deal for a CFer. Going into a season where there's a decent chance the team isn't competitive, removing a complication from trading what might be one of the most tradeable commodities in the league is a good thing.

[Rough Carrigan]

How is Ellsbury one of the most tradeable commodities in the league? He's got three big strikes against him. One is that he's been injured and useless two of the last three years so he carries unusually large injury uncertainty with him. A second is that he's in his walk year. A third is that his agent is Boras so you can have cherubs leave a path of rose petals from his car to his locker to a fucking urinal and back to his locker and out to the dugout, you can do anything you want, he's not going to like your place so much that he signs with you without testing free agency. And if you offer him a dollar less than another team come November 2013, your welcoming committee and tour didn't mean jack.

Whether one player makes another guy more tradeable ishould be pretty far down the list of valuable attributes of the first guy especally for $39 million.

[Rovin Romine]

How is Ellsbury one of the most tradeable commodities in the league?

If he recaptures something close to his MVP form, he's tradeable exactly the same way Carlos Beltran was tradeable in 04.

[Rough Carrigan]

No. He's not. Because the rules have changed and a team that trades for him then loses him in free agency isn't going to get the draft picks they would have a couple years ago.

[Rasputin]

No. He's not. Because the rules have changed and a team that trades for him then loses him in free agency isn't going to get the draft picks they would have a couple years ago.

But they're still going to get a very good two way player at a premium position with a financial commitment that is neither large, nor long.

Maybe he doesn't regain form and nobody wants him. Maybe he does regain form and the Sox are in contention and they don't want to trade him. But maybe he does regain form and the Sox aren't in contention. If that's the case, he's one of the prime targets at the trade deadline.

[Savin Hillbilly]

No. He's not. Because the rules have changed and a team that trades for him then loses him in free agency isn't going to get the draft picks they would have a couple years ago.

Well, they still get a pick, in the sandwich round, if they trade for him now and make a qualifying offer next fall. But yeah, it's not quite as big a deal as it was.

[gammoseditor]

Yeah, some teams were willing to pay a premium for a deadline upgrade if they could get draft pick compensation. Some teams even targeted players for this. But teams trade for players at the deadline to increase their chances of making the playoffs and winning the world series. Teams still want to do those things.

[RedOctober3829]

@PeteAbe: Sources: #RedSox are open to idea of trading Ellsbury, playing Victorino in CF and signing C. Ross or another RF. Keeping doors open.

[Rovin Romine]

No. He's not. Because the rules have changed and a team that trades for him then loses him in free agency isn't going to get the draft picks they would have a couple years ago.

They can always make a qualifying offer. And even if it's a mid-season trade, there's still value to be had in shopping a healthy/productive Ells to a team that wants a final piece to put them over the top. I think the Dodgers did something like that recently, but my memory is fuzzy.