1019 replies to this topic

[knucklecup]

Is Billy Butler that horrendous at first base?

He'd cost less than Hosmer and I love his offensive abilities. Good eye, great doubles power, added the home run power to his repertoire last season.

[OttoC]

I would start a package with Buchholz for Hosmer and I'd add more as needed. Then you come out of the winter meetings with Floyd / Haren / Marcum and you're in business.

Did the Red Sox acquire Taylor or Alex Buchholz?

[MikeM]

Is Billy Butler that horrendous at first base?

He'd cost less than Hosmer and I love his offensive abilities. Good eye, great doubles power, added the home run power to his repertoire last season.

Billy Butler is 26, put up a .313/.373/.510 line last season, and is under club control for the next 3 seasons at $8m/$8m/$12.5m (option).

He's not costing less then Hosmer.

[OttoC]

Well, the rebuilding project is just proceeding apace; they still haven't rounded out the coaching staff and their player move was to add another catcher. Shades of last winter when top players went of the board while the club played GM/manager musical chairs. The big difference is that this year they have a lot of money to spend. My fear is that they are going to waste prospects as well as money in the haste to catch up.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Well, the rebuilding project is just proceeding apace; they still haven't rounded out the coaching staff and their player move was to add another catcher. Shades of last winter when top players went of the board while the club played GM/manager musical chairs. The big difference is that this year they have a lot of money to spend. My fear is that they are going to waste prospects as well as money in the haste to catch up.

What players have gone off the board that are sure things to make an impact? Torii Hunter? Melky Cabrera? Please. Neither of those guys are going to be viewed as "the one that got away" come July or August. The biggest fish are still out there. It's still way too early for hand-wringing over a perceived lack of action. The winter meetings are still two weeks away.

[RedOctober3829]

@Joseph_Duarte: Lance Berkman says interest from 4 teams (Rays, Phillies, Astros & Red Sox) is in 'tire-kicking mode'

https://twitter.com/...664786910535681

[foulkehampshire]

Billy Butler is 26, put up a .313/.373/.510 line last season, and is under club control for the next 3 seasons at $8m/$8m/$12.5m (option).

He's not costing less then Hosmer.

I'd let them take anybody in this organization for Butler.

[Rasputin]

It occurs to me that the off season might be rather long, by which I mean that the Sox are in a decent position to just wait out the market and take whichever halfways decent players end up scrambling for jobs.

If the guys who have produced before can do so again, having less than ideal but still competent role players won't sink the team. If those guys don't produce, having the pick of the available players won't make the difference.

You're gambling a bit, sure, but you're wagering a tiny extra chance of making the postseason against extra seasons of contract.

[Rasputin]

I'd let them take anybody in this organization for Butler.

As a general rule, I think it's good to avoid trading up the middle players for first basemen.

[TheYellowDart5]

Well, the rebuilding project is just proceeding apace; they still haven't rounded out the coaching staff and their player move was to add another catcher. Shades of last winter when top players went of the board while the club played GM/manager musical chairs. The big difference is that this year they have a lot of money to spend. My fear is that they are going to waste prospects as well as money in the haste to catch up.

So what's the FO supposed to do, make moves for the sake of making them? The only notable free-agent signings have been Hunter and Cabrera, two players whom the majority of this board didn't even want. It doesn't sound like the FO did either. The big trade was the Jays-Marlins megadeal, and the Sox made an offer, apparently, but it wasn't enough for Miami. Not to mention we also have no idea of whether or not Cherington is working the phones trying to make a trade or sign a player.

The big market mover is the Winter Meetings. If those come and go without any real action, then maybe we can wonder what the plan is. But for now, I don't see anything to suggest that the Sox are just letting opportunities slip by.

[MikeM]

It occurs to me that the off season might be rather long, by which I mean that the Sox are in a decent position to just wait out the market and take whichever halfways decent players end up scrambling for jobs.

Then there's the potential flip side there, where slow playing your way through a pool of available options that's thin to begin with just ends up leaving us in a position where we scramble to sign second/third choice "look better on paper" multi-year filler contracts. Current flexibility or not, that's generally one way to start us back down the same road of dead weight contracts and courtesy commitments to playing time you otherwise wish you could take back.

For instance, does anybody honestly believe this ownership is going to stroll into 2013 with Nava/Kalish as our slated starters? I mean we can speculate about hypothetical trade scenarios all winter, but in the event we truly are committed to holding on to some of our better prospects, there's only so much we'll realistically be able to pull in there.

So yeah, in a world where one isn't looking to be all in on a guy like Josh Hamilton, i'm kinda viewing Melky at 2/$16m as a missed opportunity atm. Speculating the alternative solution that does indeed play itself out there will probably end up looking/being worse (which includes signing Cody Ross to a 3 year deal btw/imo).

[cahlton]

i'm kinda viewing Melky at 2/$16m as a missed opportunity atm. Speculating the alternative solution that does indeed play itself out there will probably end up looking/being worse (which includes signing Cody Ross to a 3 year deal btw/imo).

An admitted steroid user who's going to be under the microscope all year because people don't believe he's really the player he was in 2011-12? There's absolutely no way he's a real option for the Boston media market.

[Gash Prex]

Seems like we are still evaluating the market huh? Is everybody waiting for Hamilton to sign or something?

Melky in Boston would simply have been a ticking time bomb.

[MikeM]

An admitted steroid user who's going to be under the microscope all year because people don't believe he's really the player he was in 2011-12? There's absolutely no way he's a real option for the Boston media market

Yup. The same guy who also seemed to turn this corner in his age 26 season, and who spent the better part of his 7 year MLB career playing/growing up without any noteworthy incident i can recall in the NY media market.

Given the realistic alternatives i see being out there, and accepting a reality where beggars can't always be choosers (with some pretty big holes we need to be filling all though out this roster atm), i'll take my chances with the best/most reasonably priced potential upside option that's up for grabs on the FA table. While preferring the additional perk of just spending $$$, instead prospects i would ideally like to see us hold on to, in the process

Not like he'd be the first steroid user, on this team no less, that seemed capable of making good after-the-fact either btw (although granted, i'm probably one to take more of a numb stance on the overall issue there then most).

Edited by MikeM, 20 November 2012 - 12:48 AM.

[MikeM]

Melky in Boston would simply have been a ticking time bomb.

Signing Carl Crawford to a 7/$142m contract was a ticking time bomb. In comparison Melky's 2/$16m, steroid issue and all, is like a potential blip on the radar imo.

Best case scenario he keeps playing at/near his current level of production, provides a sorely needed quality option we otherwise wouldn't have come up with, and helps us win some more ballgames. With most generally overlooking the fact that he once served a 50 game suspension in the process.

Worst case scenario he's likely already better then what we currently have, probably just as good as any of the cash only alternatives we can otherwise scrounge up atm, and comes at a short year price tag that won't be overly-burdening if/when we find ourselves doing the swallowing routine a year from now.

Like i said, i would have taken my chances. The alternatives out there, and there will eventually be an alternative "look better on paper" option coming into play here imo, could be a lot worse.

[cahlton]

Yup. The same guy who also seemed to turn this corner in his age 26 season, and who spent the better part of his 7 year MLB career playing/growing up without any noteworthy incident i can recall in the NY media market.

You're really going to make this argument? Really, truly? Melky spent five years in New York putting up an 86 OPS+ and a cumulative WAR of 4.5, including sub-1.0 WARS in his last two years. You're right, there were no "noteworthy incidents" for him in New York, and that includes most of his at-bats.

A season later in Atlanta he was even worse: an 83 OPS+. He slugged .354. And then he "turned the corner," as you put it, the year before he tested positive for PEDs? Come on now, admit it: you're his mother. You have to be. Nobody else could be this blinded by their love for him.

Not like he'd be the first steroid user, on this team no less, that seemed capable of making good after-the-fact either btw (although granted, i'm probably one to take more of a numb stance on the overall issue there then most).

Please use evidence and not your own subjectivity to support your argument.

No matter what Melky Cabrera achieved as a theoretical member of the Red Sox (and it wouldn't be a .516 SLG a la 2012, that's for sure), his every contribution would be doubted and disparaged. Did you read Bob Hohler's (repulsive) article about the September '11 collapse? Do you have any idea how irrational and cruel the Boston sports media is?

[MikeM]

You're really going to make this argument? Really, truly? Melky spent five years in New York putting up an 86 OPS+ and a cumulative WAR of 4.5, including sub-1.0 WARS in his last two years. You're right, there were no "noteworthy incidents" for him in New York, and that includes most of his at-bats.

A season later in Atlanta he was even worse: an 83 OPS+. He slugged .354. And then he "turned the corner," as you put it, the year before he tested positive for PEDs? Come on now, admit it: you're his mother. You have to be. Nobody else could be this blinded by their love for him.

In response to your initial implication that playing in the Boston media market alone is somehow solid ground to take a no-flyer stance on him? Yeah, really. Point being that Melky isn't some little farm boy who's never experienced the big lights of a large media market. The guy debuted at age 20 and went on the play 4 full seasons in New York. I'm doubting this will be the fist time a little over-exposure has come into play there, or your presented notion that he'll suddenly cower down into a corner and become some .600ops zombie at the plate because of it.

No, i am not his mother. I'm also not naive, or uneducated enough on the nature of steroid use to immediately jump to the media frenzied "omg, he took steroids? It must of been the testosterone, every bit of it!!!" conclusion with any real confidence here. Would testosterone have potentially made a difference in Melky's ability to play at a high level? Absolutely. Can you reliably attribute 100% of Melky's improvement these last 2 years to it's use? I'd argue no, for various reasons and one of which being the possibility in play that he's simply a late bloomer. People tend to forget in the grander scheme of things that this is a guy who just turned 28.

Please use evidence and not your own subjectivity to support your argument.

How much did Ryan Braun's offense drop off a cliff this year after testing positive himself for synthetic testosterone? Oh wait, mishandled sample and overturned 50 game suspension. Strike that from the record your honor.

I guess one will make what they want to out of those 2003 positive test result findings too, and/or the "i don't know what supplements i was taking" defense stories that were offered up after-the-fact. In the end though, whether or not a guy is producing and in turn helping you win games is what matters most there. If a player does that in this day and age he'll be ok as a whole imo, even here in cruel Boston. But speaking of subjectivity, and having already offered up a fair amount on why you wouldn't have liked to see a Melky Cabrera signing here, care to share the alternative corner OF idea/s floating around your own head on what you *would* potentially support? In the spirit of this thread and all.

Do you even currently have one?

Edited by MikeM, 20 November 2012 - 07:28 AM.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Are you really trying to argue that the Red Sox are letting golden opportunities slip by on November 20? Melky freaking Cabrera is going to be the one that got away? Cabrera on a Cody Ross-type make good deal (1/3M) might have been acceptable. 2/16M? Pass. Rather they bring back Ross at that price.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I think there's a middle ground here. Melky's mild power surge the past two seasons is overdetermined. PED use, and the fact that he was hitting his prime years, could each have been the sole reason for it, so we have no way of knowing how decisive either factor was.

And it was a mild power surge. His ISO for the past two years was .167. In 2009 in NY it was .142. Most of the difference came in the form of doubles and triples; his HR/FB this past year was only fractions of a percentage point better than his 2009 number (10.7/10.3). He's never been a masher, and he still isn't.

His overall offensive improvement was a combination of that mild ISO boost and a pretty dramatic BABIP spike. The BABIP spike is probably a combination of any or all of the following:

• maturing into his prime;
• luck (he's an extreme groundball hitter, and though I don't know what the received wisdom is on this, it seems intuitively likely that GB BABIP would be more subject to random variation than FB BABIP);
• quite possibly, PEDs.

Either way, 2/$16M was a reasonable price to put up for finding out how much of the improvement is sustainable. He only has to be a little better than his 2009 self to earn that money. Suggesting that he should have settled for a make-good deal after the two years he's just put up, PEDs or no PEDs, seems absurd to me.

I don't have a problem with Ben's declining to go there, assuming that's what he did (remember, it's always possible that Ben made a competitive offer and Melky just liked the Blue Jays situation better). But I agree Melky was a decent option at a decent price, so we'll just have to hope we can pull off something better. And yes, before Thanksgiving is way too soon to push the panic button on that.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Suggesting that he should have settled for a make-good deal after the two years he's just put up, PEDs or no PEDs, seems absurd to me.

I suggested no such thing. I suggested that's all the Red Sox should have offered if they offered anything. Nothing to do with what he should settle for. If another team, like Toronto, is willing to go further, there's no reason for him not to take it.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I suggested no such thing. I suggested that's all the Red Sox should have offered if they offered anything. Nothing to do with what he should settle for. If another team, like Toronto, is willing to go further, there's no reason for him not to take it.

Maybe a more accurate way to make the point I was trying to make is that Melky did just settle, in effect, for a make-good deal.

This is a 28-year-old coming off OPS+ seasons of 121 and 158. What kind of contract does that guy normally sign? Granted, there are minuses; the improvement was a little sudden and is still a little new, and he's an average defensive outfielder at best. But still, that's not a 2/16 player. Something like 5/60, under normal circumstances, would be more like it. Obviously, the PEDs thing just cost him a shitload of money, which he has to hope he'll be able to reclaim up the line.

[Rovin Romine]

No regrets here on Melky.

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the PED effect though. The reason these guys take them is that they make a difference - and I am sure the players feel different when on them. Some of that might be a placebo effect, but certainly some of it is real. Players recover faster, are more physically primed to catch and sustain hot streaks without being derailed by fatigue or nagging injuries, etc. etc. as has been so often discussed to death. Another possible effect to consider, which is often not discussed, is that PED use might get someone "over the hump" - that it may give that last 5% boost in physical ability, confidence, willingness to tinker with their approach at the plate and take "risks" they otherwise wouldn't, etc. Some of that improvement might carry over once the PED use stops. I don't know of any studies done on this, but I'm not sure that once PED use stops, all gains disappear. Perhaps this is true for players who are severely dependent on PED use, but for a player coming into their physical prime who used a "modest" amount of PEDs, it seems possible the gains stick to a certain extent. Of course, who knows what Melky actually did?

I agree that a make good contract might have been worth looking into, but 2/16, as Hillbilly points out, seems a bit rich to me.

edit PS - realized the last sentence is not clear. I also don't think 2/16 would have been crippling, nor do I think Ben missed the boat by not going there. It's just a bit much given the uncertainty of what drove the last 2 years of his production; if we get the Atlanta version of Melky, it would suck.

Edited by Rovin Romine, 20 November 2012 - 10:48 AM.

[cahlton]

In response to your initial implication that playing in the Boston media market alone is somehow solid ground to take a no-flyer stance on him? Yeah, really. Point being that Melky isn't some little farm boy who's never experienced the big lights of a large media market. The guy debuted at age 20 and went on the play 4 full seasons in New York. I'm doubting this will be the fist time a little over-exposure has come into play there, or your presented notion that he'll suddenly cower down into a corner and become some .600ops zombie at the plate because of it.

O.K., so you're saying that we should consider Melky's .716 OPS as a Yankee as evidence that he will be an $8 million player in Boston?

Can you reliably attribute 100% of Melky's improvement these last 2 years to it's use? I'd argue no, for various reasons and one of which being the possibility in play that he's simply a late bloomer.

What we know is that Melky's BABIP spiked dramatically over the past two years. He'd had a grand total of one .300+ BABIP season in his career (.309, in 2006) yet in 2011 his BABIP was .332 and in 2012, .379. Under normal circumstances, how sustainable do those numbers seem to you? And if I tell you that the player in question was busted for steroids, do they seem even less sustainable?

My own subjective take on steroids and performance is that BABIP is exactly where we should expect to see unaccountable gains. Players may or may not be hitting more fly balls, but they're hitting the ball harder, and balls that are hit harder are more likely to get through the infield. This is very much off-the-cuff, but look at Jason Giambi's BABIPs before and after steroids. He continues to put up the occasional .500 SLG, but his BABIP falls off a cliff.

How much did Ryan Braun's offense drop off a cliff this year after testing positive himself for synthetic testosterone? Oh wait, mishandled sample and overturned 50 game suspension. Strike that from the record your honor.

I don't know when Ryan Braun started using steroids, but his career OPS is .943. His minor league numbers are equally excellent.

In the end though, whether or not a guy is producing and in turn helping you win games is what matters most there. If a player does that in this day and age he'll be ok as a whole imo, even here in cruel Boston.

You say this based on what? Unlike David Ortiz, Melky Cabrera does not have a reservoir of goodwill awaiting him in Boston. In any case, was Terry Francona, who led the Red Sox to two championships, "ok as a whole imo?"

Cabrera not only juiced but also enlisted a friend to create a fake e-commerce site to support his lie about taking a tainted supplement. He'd have to be Manny Ramirez in his prime to make that go away in Boston.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I agree that a make good contract might have been worth looking into, but 2/16, as Hillbilly points out, seems a bit rich to me.

Actually that's the opposite of the point I was making. I think 2/16 is extremely unlikely to be a significant overpay, and could turn out to be an excellent bargain.

And I agree you can't dismiss the PED effect, but neither can you just assume it accounts for all of his improvement, and therefore that he will immediately revert to his pre-2011 self without the drugs. Players in their mid-20s do tend to get better, with or without PEDs.

O.K., so you're saying that we should consider Melky's .716 OPS as a Yankee as evidence that he will be an $8 million player in Boston?

You mean as evidence that he will, at age 28, be just a little bit better than the $7.4 million player he was at age 24 in NY in 2009?

Eight million dollars isn't a lot of money for a ML free agent in 2013. And when you're guaranteeing it for only two years to a 28-year-old, it's really not a lot of money. It's what you pay a league-average player, and that's probably what Cabrera will be--but the uncertainty there skews toward the upside.

Don't get me wrong, the off-field stuff bothers me too, a lot. He's not a guy I would have rooted for with much enthusiasm, so it's OK with me that we passed on him. But let's not pretend that we dodged a bullet here. In pure bang-for-buck terms, leaving any karmic implications aside, Toronto just made a very solid deal.

Edited by Savin Hillbilly, 20 November 2012 - 04:29 PM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Jeremy Guthrie just got $25M.

Granted, players generally only sign this early if they are getting a really good deal, but most of the deals signed so far don't look like great deals to me (with the exception of Ortiz, and Peavy- resigned by their own clubs).

The Sox have so many holes that there's really no reason for them to jump on anything now unless they get their price, there will be players left over looking for somewhere to play.

Of course- the one potential problem here is if the marketplace is evaluating players at a higher cost than the Sox realize, and they are too late in finding out. GIven the rates guys are getting, though, it certainly looks like rebuilding may be more challenging and more expensive than it looked a few months ago.

[MikeM]

O.K., so you're saying that we should consider Melky's .716 OPS as a Yankee as evidence that he will be an $8 million player in Boston?

Given the going rate of what free agents cost nowadays (as SH is doing a terrific job pointing out here btw), a better then casual knowledge on the matter/effects of testosterone use, and while factoring in that those years as a Yankee came in his age 20-24 seasons...... yeah, i'm of the opinion that there's not enough evidence there to clearly define that he won't.

Solid counter on the BABIP concern. Although again, that essentially plays into the fact that you are only paying flyer money here, instead of the significant sum he'd be getting otherwise. Given the realistic alternatives i see being out there, it all just boils down to a risk i felt would have been worth it at 2/$16m.

I don't know when Ryan Braun started using steroids, but his career OPS is .943. His minor league numbers are equally excellent.

I don't know when it started or how long he was using either. But i do feel fairly confident coming to a conclusion that in the event he was taking synthetic testosterone, and then stopped after getting busted, it apparently had no real visible effect on his production playing the game of baseball going forward.

You say this based on what?

Based on the fact it's not 2005 anymore, and the whole "omg, professional baseball players are using steroids?!?" isn't quite as alien of a concept today as it was back when it exploded onto the landscape. Not quite sure where you are attempting to go with the Tito thing, but yes, he was ok as a whole......until the team stopped performing and we started losing.

Cabrera not only juiced but also enlisted a friend to create a fake e-commerce site to support his lie about taking a tainted supplement.

Like i said previously, and admittedly being more numb on this issue then most, i still don't see that being the make or break point. Will some here hold that positive test and his after actions against him until the end of time? Sure. I expect a lot more won't though, at least in the event he's producing. Look the other way, chalk it up to time served...whatever. Of course we all would prefer these guys just come clean, but "at least made me laugh a bit" points never-the-less for trying there in my book, which i ultimately don't see as any less offensive then the guy sitting there attempting to seriously offer up the "i don't know what i was taking, but didn't think it was steroids" line.

[redsoxstiff]

Delving into the minutia of Melky Cabrera altho' many cogent statements are here...I think it is a waste of topic space...

[MartyBarrettMVP]

McAdam:

Source: #RedSox are narrowing their outfield search to Cody Ross and Jonny Gomes

https://twitter.com/...305163938078720

[941827]

If the Sox are seriously considering playing Jonny Gomes in the OF, even on a platoon basis, I have to seriously question what this FO is doing. When did this team entirely stop caring about defense?

[mfried]

McAdam:



https://twitter.com/...305163938078720

This is regrettable news. Gomes is slow and can't field. Reason to think that he can play the wall? He sure can't handle right field. Is this a platoon with Kalish? I had hoped that Kalish would platoon with Ross and that we would get a dark horse (Justin Upton?) for the other corner outfield position.

[bosockboy]

I would hope the Gomes stuff is just some leverage against Ross. Both equally strong vs. lefties, but Ross is capable of playing every day.

[Savin Hillbilly]

If the Sox are seriously considering playing Jonny Gomes in the OF, even on a platoon basis, I have to seriously question what this FO is doing. When did this team entirely stop caring about defense?

Well, focusing on defense hasn't worked so well over the past 3-4 years. I realize that's an oversimplification and perhaps the wrong lesson, but that may be part of what's operating here.

After all, the Sox won two world championships with a guy in left field who was almost certainly significantly worse on defense than Gomes. Granted, he was also significantly better on offense....

My hope is that they're talking to Gomes primarily to put some pressure on Ross to settle for two years. (EDIT: bosockboy beat me to it.)

Edited by Savin Hillbilly, 21 November 2012 - 01:08 PM.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

ScottLauber

Can confirm through industry source that #RedSox are closing in on 2-year deal with OF Jonny Gomes. @Sean_McAdam was first to report

[Trautwein's Degree]

Ben Cherrington school of rebuilding: first you sign David Ross and then you sign Jonny Gomes.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Ben Cherrington school of rebuilding: first you sign David Ross and then you sign Jonny Gomes.

Which could translate to "we need to give the farm a little time to develop before making any long term decisions" or "we need to pick up some filler early in case we fail to make some of the bigger deals that will not be resolved until January or February."

Considering the mess that was this roster last year, it might take more than one winter to fix. If that's the best path to a long term contender in 2014 or 2015, I'm fine with it.

[Savin Hillbilly]

So far the strategy seems to be: sign veterans who have limitations but add specific, bankable value to the kind of reasonable but somewhat aggressive contracts that you are free to offer when you have massive payroll flexibility. I really have trouble seeing the problem with this. Obviously if Ross and Gomes are the highest-profile acquisitions Ben comes up with this winter, then we are effectively punting on 2013; but equally obviously, there's no reason to assume this is the case.

[MikeM]

So far the strategy seems to be: sign veterans who have limitations but add specific, bankable value to the kind of reasonable but somewhat aggressive contracts that you are free to offer when you have massive payroll flexibility. I really have trouble seeing the problem with this. Obviously if Ross and Gomes are the highest-profile acquisitions Ben comes up with this winter, then we are effectively punting on 2013; but equally obviously, there's no reason to assume this is the case.

I think the real problem is that too many people are looking for well defined and long term answers, fitting some comforting "master plan" they want to believe is in play here, all the while choosing to ignore the reality that there simply isn't any out there fitting that wishful thinking criteria atm. Don't like Melky Cabrera at 2/$16m or Jonny Gomes at 2/$10m? That's perfectly fine, but eventually you have to confront the question Scubasteveavery keeps asking in the Gomes thread, and then pick/decide on your alternative something. Hypothetical players that remain hypothetical can't take the field for us in 2013.

For the most part, i do agree on what you say as being the core strategy in play atm, and don't see much of a problem in it either. As a whole though, i don't see "punting" being on the possibility scoreboard there. I mean i get that the whole planning around a core of prospects concept is romantic, looks great when presented on paper, and tends to be an easy in-the-moment sell to those looking for that "everything will eventually be ok" answer. But in truth here these Red Sox have never been a Play for Year_X type of team, and probably never will be. At least not under this ownership, who have proved time and time again that if the possibility of shifting directions if/when a road they felt was favorable presented itself, they'll be open to doing just that. Year to year, opportunity to opportunity. The 3 year planning, pen in untouchable prospect 1/2/3/4/5 to be on our 2014/15 team, don't sign Free Agent X you like because Prospect Y *might* be ready to step in 2 years from now........that just isn't who they are imo.

So outside filling out the rest of the roster, i still can't shake the suspicion that much like the Lackey/Crawford signings, Henry and co are going to come out of nowhere and be in big on either Hamilton or Greinke (which don't get me wrong there either, because i'll probably be among the first in line asking the potential "did they learn from their past mistakes" question/s). Henry came into this winter talking big, and unlike Lackey/Crawford before them, both Hamilton and Greinke represent huge potential upgrades to a team that without a doubt needs that type of help. For better or for worse, i'm thinking the odds of seeing a major splash are better then most expect it to be.

[yecul]

I think bc's thought here is 1 change the clubhouse makeup and fill in the roster and 2 build properly through the farm rather than free agency.

The quick fix will not fix anything and is a poor approach. Seeing more splashy moves would be a big concern.

That said count amongst those that dislike going 2 years for a dh who can't dh here. I guess the idea is to use the wall to hide some flaws?

[redsoxstiff]

The Sox can't ever be a patient and wise 'play for next year team...

The blueprint with very high ticket prices and stratospheric expectations as a cornerstone to their ownership and thus the FO has a massive burden to perform...

A wait till next year or beyond with high hopes for several minors to become major cogs in the juggernaught warrants a corresponding 'adjustment in the cost of tix... lowering prices is not going to happen...Thus getting no kick ass SP and no knuckle dragging but productive bat[s] will be intolerable...
Few SoSHers want Hamilton but he can provide dearly needed production...If he is the best alternative ...do it...
A SP who has all the leadership qualities may be easier ...Greinke seems to fill the bill too...A need for several mid range players may com from the minors or returns for trades...Ben doesn't have to turn water into wine he has to ASS ume risk that is vaguely uncomfortable..Given .the last few years in the not so funny farm ,the line Ben must walk narrows noticeably per day...

The good news is that money isn't the major problem...

Edited by redsoxstiff, 22 November 2012 - 10:01 AM.

[iayork]

So far the strategy seems to be: sign veterans who have limitations but add specific, bankable value to the kind of reasonable but somewhat aggressive contracts that you are free to offer when you have massive payroll flexibility. I really have trouble seeing the problem with this. Obviously if Ross and Gomes are the highest-profile acquisitions Ben comes up with this winter, then we are effectively punting on 2013; but equally obviously, there's no reason to assume this is the case.

In a year where there aren't many impact free agents, the only way to make a big improvement is through trades.

How are the Sox going to make trades for outfielders when they only have one major-league outfielder on their roster? First, they've over the barrel; any trading partner would be able to completely rape them. Second, what are they going to offer in trade? All their prospects?

Gomes is exactly what the Sox need going into winter meetings. An almost-acceptable outfielder at an almost-acceptable price, who can be flipped as part of a trade for a full-time starter. He's acceptable enough that they don't need to include the cream of the prospects to get something back. Maybe you pick up a little salary for whoever you're trading with; the Sox can afford that now. And, most importantly, Gomes someone that lets them negotiate without looking completely desperate, so the prices won't be as outrageous.

Gomes is not necessarily going to start for the Sox come spring. But if he does it's not the end of the world. And that's the situation Ben needs to have in place on Thanksgiving.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Ben Cherrington school of rebuilding: first you sign David Ross and then you sign Jonny Gomes.

Theo Epstein school of rebuilding, 2004 edition: first you sign Jeff Bailey and then you sign Adam Hyzdu.

Theo Epstein school of rebuilding, 2007 edition: first you sign Bobby Scales and then you sign Alberto Castillo.

Yup, this game of judging the whole offseason by the first few transactions sure is fun. And meaningful.

[Robert Plant]

How are the Sox going to make trades for outfielders when they only have one major-league outfielder on their roster? First, they've over the barrel; any trading partner would be able to completely rape them. Second, what are they going to offer in trade? All their prospects?

Alfredo Aceves?

[MikeM]

Alfredo Aceves?

He did say "big improvement".....

Personally, i'm fully expecting Aceves to be shipped out for next to nothing at some point this winter. Flyer/lottery ticket type return at best.

[Robert Plant]

He did say "big improvement".....

Personally, i'm fully expecting Aceves to be shipped out for next to nothing at some point this winter. Flyer/lottery ticket type return at best.

Perhaps that is all he will bring, on the other hand he is a pitcher with an enormous amount of upside when used correctly. It wasn't too long ago that many of us thought he could possibly be a middle of the rotation starter. Maybe he still could be in the right environment with the right pitching coach and manager.

Edited by Robert Plant, 22 November 2012 - 04:50 PM.

[E5 Yaz]

JIM BOWDEN ‏@JimBowdenESPNxm
Mike Napoli holding out for 4th year from Red Sox...meeting with Mariners who might be willing to give the extra year according to sources

[bosockboy]

If the money is reasonable on Napoli 4 years might be OK, if the idea is moving him to DH in year 3 and 4.

They'd be getting a little RH heavy, with Ellsbury and Ortiz the only certain LHH (Salty possibly moved). Would almost make the incoming RF need to be LH to balance out the lineup.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I don't like the idea of Napoli at 4 years. I mean if it's something crazy low like 4/20 then sure, but at the kind of money we're likely looking at (4/40 to 4/50) I'd be really worried about the value later in the contract.

[MikeM]

I don't like the idea of Napoli at 4 years. I mean if it's something crazy low like 4/20 then sure, but at the kind of money we're likely looking at (4/40 to 4/50) I'd be really worried about the value later in the contract.

I wouldn't be too thrilled at 4 years either. If the report rings true though, and default logic here has us already potentially offering 3, i think i could get on board with that. Or at least i'd like it more then a LaRoche signing, and probably wouldn't shed a tear at the accompanying thought of never seeing another shitty at bat by Salty in a Sox uniform ever again.

Would leave the lineup fairly right handed though, and likely push us towards looking for lefty hitting option in RF, that maybe balances the middle of the order some.

Wonder who potentially might fit that bill

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I should clarify. I'd be worried about a 4th guaranteed year. A vesting option based on plate appearances for a 4th year I could probably be talked into being comfortable with. Maybe that's the kind of compromise they end up coming to.

[IpswichSox]

Would leave the lineup fairly right handed though, and likely push us towards looking for lefty hitting option in RF, that maybe balances the middle of the order.

I know injuries have hampered him -- almost to the point of Jed Lowrie, whom we just couldn't reasonably count on -- but I hope Ryan Kalish, who bats lefty, is both healthy and gets a chance at the full-time RF job. At best 2013 is a year when we'll be competitive but we're certainly not in GFIN mode, and that's the perfect time to give the RF job to Kalish to see whether he can suceed and stay healthy.