325 replies to this topic

[gammoseditor]

Berkman has a lot of positives. He doesn't require losing a draft pick. If they signed Berkman, Jerry Sands could get some at bats at first base, or they could also sign Napoli and use him at both 1B and C. Also, if we don't trade for Justin Morneau then nobody else is going to, so in a worst case scenario where Berkman's knees just aren't holding up they could trade for Morneau. The Twins should be more motivated to sell him off when they're out of the playoff picture and he's only a few months away from free agency.

I would still rather see them trade for a 1B, especially if Logan Morrison is available, but if teams are asking too much for trade targets then Berkman might be a risk worth taking.

[Rovin Romine]

If we had any 1B prospects in the pipeline, or if next year's 1B FA class looked significantly better than this year's, I might be tempted to say the former (though Berkman really is a DH at this point, and we don't need one of those). As it is, we might as well bite the bullet and stabilize the position for a few years with unexciting competence.

Ting.

I've been thinking about this a bit, and I'm pretty much viewing 2013 as a bridge year. Yes, they might be able to contend, but it seems that we're planning on an unblocked 2014 infusion of farm system talent to put us into serious contention. So we're not going to block our cheap young talent with untradeable playres/contracts. If that's true, I think the 1B question becomes "How do we get a good 1B option for 2014/15, or failing that a competent player we can trade/upgrade in 2014/15?"

It's a shame that this year's off-season combination of money to spend and a protected draft pick can't be used to pick up an excellent free agent that could address this problem. I suppose, ideally, to maximize the value of their protected pick, the Sox should sign the best FA available (provided there's a decent contract on the table) trade whomever the FA displaces (if anyone) for equivalent value elsewhere on the diamond, and use their first round pick wisely. Don't think that will happen though. (And hopefully they'll be so successful in the upcoming years that they'll never get the opportunity to have a protected first round pick again.)

If we fall into the "unexciting competence" box of Berkman/LaRoche/whomever placeholder we trade for, I would hope we'd try to pick up a high upside hitting prospect who might start to come into their own in 2014/15. Perhaps we'll use our high draft pick on that. It's too bad the new agreement not only taxes you, but blocks first round picks if you go more than 5% over budget - if it didn't, the draft would be a great place to spend some of the payroll budget.

Seems like Eric's initial post in this thread is still the best option: we should really be looking at one of the minor league players as a longer term option, regardless of who we trot out next year. If they got a younger player who was one year away, I'd be fine with Gomez/Sands/et. al.

[Hairps]

Infielder Bryan LaHair has been designated for assignment, as he and the Cubs are pursuing an opportunity for LaHair with a club in Japan.

http://www.mlb.com/n...4052368264-1023

Career vs. RHP (503 PAs): 124 wRC+ | .360 wOBA

[Rudy Pemberton]

Claim a guy who is headed for Japan? Nah, that would never happen.....

He's a Worcester native, and would really fit this teams needs. It makes a lot of sense, but assuming he's making a lot of yen....

[Rough Carrigan]

Claim a guy who is headed for Japan? Nah, that would never happen.....

He's a Worcester native, and would really fit this teams needs. It makes a lot of sense, but assuming he's making a lot of yen....

Players from out here in the hinterlands of Worcester county, like Tim Collins, don't matter. Now, if he'd grown up next door to Carlos Pena, then we'd have to do something. Worcester county only exists to have suckers to pay for what's done inside 128. The serfs don't get romanticized.

[The Gray Eagle]

He'd fit in nicely here as a useful platoon bat. As Rudy said, it would be too funny if Epstein griped about someone claiming a guy bound for Japan.

He's a platoon guy only, as he utterly cannot hit lefties. But that doesn't mean he isn't potentially useful. He could split time with Sands or Gomez and give us decent production. No reason not to pick him up-- if someone better happens to come along, then great. If not, he can battle for a platoon role. We're not exactly overloaded with bats right now.

[MikeM]

James/BIS has Berkman at 508 PA, .273/.389/.485, 21 HR.

Would people rather pay Berkman 1/$10 or LaRoche 3/$36?

I was actually fairly pro LaRoche as a solid not-everybody-has-to-be-a-star option 2 winters back, before the Gonzo deal went down. But that was 2 years ago, when he was younger and looking for a 3 year deal at almost half that. Maybe if we didn't have so many other holes to fill atm, and in the event i wasn't ranking any non-stud'ish option at 1st as being so low on the current priority list, that 3/$36 wouldn't seem as large as it does to me though.

I'd personally go Berkman there, while hoping something better (and cheaper) long term presents itself between now and next winter.

[fineyoungarm]

He'd fit in nicely here as a useful platoon bat. As Rudy said, it would be too funny if Epstein griped about someone claiming a guy bound for Japan.

He's a platoon guy only, as he utterly cannot hit lefties. But that doesn't mean he isn't potentially useful. He could split time with Sands or Gomez and give us decent production. No reason not to pick him up-- if someone better happens to come along, then great. If not, he can battle for a platoon role. We're not exactly overloaded with bats right now.

Completely agree. And he would help solidify the all important Central Massachusetts, French Canadian - American fan base.

[redsoxstiff]

Completely agree. And he would help solidify the all important Central Massachusetts, French Canadian - American fan base.

Maintenent je suis tres fier pour les Francais-Americains comme moi ,mais...will ethnicity help increase his WAR...?

[fineyoungarm]

Maintenent je suis tres fier pour les Francais-Americains comme moi ,mais...will ethnicity help increase his WAR...?

Moi aussi. Eh, peut-etre.

[Kramerica Industries]

Mike Napoli holding out for 4th year from Red Sox...meeting with Mariners who might be willing to give the extra year according to sources

https://twitter.com/...720957520015360

[E5 Yaz]

MLBTR: Napoli is meeting with the Red Sox in Boston this weekend, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Yesterday we learned that he's already met with the Mariners.

Edited by E5 Yaz, 24 November 2012 - 03:59 PM.

[BosRedSox5]

I'm not sure how I feel about Napoli. He'd be a great guy to have around if he was playing the role he did for the Angels, low cost, hitting for power, catching and playing 1B... but whoever signs him is going to pay him for 2011 and that means he's most likely on pace for a career high in at-bats. (His current career high in AB is 453 in 2010. The year Kendrys Morales broke his leg.)

Still, the guy has tremendous power. For a team with means like the Red Sox, maybe it's worth the risk? We don't have any 1B prospects on the horizon, and 4 years only brings him to age 35. Why not take a guy who has a SLG over .500 and gets on base at a decent clip and see how he does?

[SoxLegacy]

I'm not sure how I feel about Napoli. He'd be a great guy to have around if he was playing the role he did for the Angels, low cost, hitting for power, catching and playing 1B... but whoever signs him is going to pay him for 2011 and that means he's most likely on pace for a career high in at-bats. (His current career high in AB is 453 in 2010. The year Kendrys Morales broke his leg.)

Still, the guy has tremendous power. For a team with means like the Red Sox, maybe it's worth the risk? We don't have any 1B prospects on the horizon, and 4 years only brings him to age 35. Why not take a guy who has a SLG over .500 and gets on base at a decent clip and see how he does?

This is where I am as well....Napoli could be an ok to good fit at first, spell Ross and whoever is left from Salty/Lavarnway (hoping it's Lavarnway b/c I think we can get more for Salty) from time to time, and he does have some productive years in front of him, I hope. Much like the Gomes signing, I am not too excited about Napoli, but feel that he would be productive if we get him.

[RedOctober3829]

Yes, Mike Napoli is in Boston. He had a "great" meeting with the Red Sox. Had dinner with Farrell, Cherington and Henry. Numbers discussed

Jen Royle

https://twitter.com/...566512802484224

[bosockboy]

Jen Royle

https://twitter.com/...566512802484224

Feels like Seattle would have to blow away our offer; graveyard for RHH vs. a park tailor made for him. Seems like this one is destined to get done.

[Rasputin]

Feels like Seattle would have to blow away our offer; graveyard for RHH vs. a park tailor made for him. Seems like this one is destined to get done.

He's a highly useful player, just for the sake of all that is holy, keep the duration short.

Edited by Rasputin, 25 November 2012 - 12:21 AM.

[bosockboy]

He's a highly useful player, just for the sake of all that is holy, keep the duration short.

Yep....I'd overpay a bit to keep it at three years. Maybe 3/40 gets it done.

[MikeM]

Yep....I'd overpay a bit to keep it at three years.

Agreed.

Curious to what he's actually asking for on the per/year side of things though, as i have yet to see it speculated, and given the Rangers didn't feel comfortable making him a qualifying offer.

[OttoC]

Feels like Seattle would have to blow away our offer; graveyard for RHH vs. a park tailor made for him. Seems like this one is destined to get done.

Seattle will be moving fences in for the 2013 season.



Additionally, the the scoreboard in left will be taken out of play so the fence height there will be reduced from 16 feet to 8 feet.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Napoli is a damn good hitter, with a career line of 259 / 356 / 507. A 126 OPS+ is impressive, especially considering how much time he has spent catching.

That being said, he struck out in 30% of his plate appearances last year, up from 20% the year prior. He had an excellent April and September, but pretty mediocre the rest of the season. Any explanation for the big spike in K rate?

[SoxScout]

No idea, but he had Lasik surgery a month ago.

FWIW, his June and July were .237/.356/.395 and .183/.364/.433, which were awful average-wise, but still 5 and 15 percent better than average according to wRC+.

2012 vs LHP: .179/.295/.411
Car vs LHP: .273/.381/.529

Edited by SoxScout, 25 November 2012 - 08:23 AM.

[BosRedSox5]

No idea, but he had Lasik surgery a month ago.

FWIW, his June and July were .237/.356/.395 and .183/.364/.433, which were awful average-wise, but still 5 and 15 percent better than average according to wRC+.

2012 vs LHP: .179/.295/.411
Car vs LHP: .273/.381/.529

I guess CC, Mark Buehrle, and David Price are in trouble if Gomes and Napoli are in the lineup...

Seriously, why does the team seem to be looking for these guys who crush lefties? With a Napoli signing a projected lineup might include David Ortiz and Jacoby Ellsbury as our only left handed batters.

Edited by BosRedSox5, 25 November 2012 - 08:34 AM.

[maufman]

Yep....I'd overpay a bit to keep it at three years. Maybe 3/40 gets it done.

Most free agents won't ascribe much value to hitting the market again at age 34 instead of age 35. I suspect that's even more true for 1B/DH types -- look at how much trouble Papi had getting more than a 1-year deal in his mid-30s, and Mike Napoli is no David Ortiz. So if you want to sign Napoli, you need to be competitive in terms of total guaranteed dollars; an overpay in AAV terms isn't going to get it done.

By the way, anyone who thinks SoSH is too saber-heavy should re-read the discussion here of Napoli -- pretty much any mainstream measure suggests he'd be a horrendous signing at the years/dollars currently being discussed, yet there's nary a bad word being said about our status as presumptive front runner to secure his services.

[Div School Sox Fan]

pretty much any mainstream measure suggests he'd be a horrendous signing at the years/dollars currently being discussed

I don't think that's correct. A simple regressed 5-4-3 WAR projection for Napoli puts him at ~3 WAR (+28 runs above replacement). A contract in the range of 3/39 or 4/45 is perfectly fair based on that basic measure.

There are other issues to consider - will Napoli have a sharper than usual decline phase? can you get more value out of Napoli by moving him off C? - but a simple baseline projection for Napoli puts his expected contract in the range of the years and dollars which have been discussed.

[MartyBarrettMVP]

I hope not, Jen Royle:

The Red Sox would likely have to go to four years to land Napoli... One source tells me they may be willing to go to five. #Boston

https://twitter.com/...719452645232640

[RedOctober3829]

The Red Sox would likely have to go to four years to land Napoli... One source tells me they may be willing to go to five.

Jen Royle

https://twitter.com/...719452645232640

5 years for Mike Napoli??? Are you kidding me?

[drtooth]

Jen Royle

https://twitter.com/...719452645232640

5 years for Mike Napoli??? Are you kidding me?

Only if the last 2 years are team options. Has Ben learned anything from the past few years?

[SoxScout]

Take a deep breath. Royle definitely has some connection with Farrell news, but other than that, who knows. The last "source" said 3-years. No need to skewer Cherington over nothing.

[MartyBarrettMVP]

She's also friend's with Mike Napoli, FWIW:

I'm sworn to secrecy regarding all Mike Napoli news. I cannot confirm or deny anything... Friendship comes first.

https://twitter.com/...414163509325826

[Rudy Pemberton]

Only if the last 2 years are team options. Has Ben learned anything from the past few years?

They have money, no internal options, and don't want to trade prophets. What's the alternative? Napoli is an excellent hitter; I sure as hell wouldn't give him 5 years but you won't sign him without going 4. The Sox want to be competitive, and they'll have to sign free agents. Crawford and Lackey were lousy signings, sure, but I don't think the logical conclusion is completely avoiding free agency.

[Laser Show]

I really don't like this. I've had enough with long term free agent contracts. That being said... I'd much rather give 5 years to Napoli than, hell, even 3 years to Hamilton or anything to Greinke.

[Rasputin]

Jen Royle

https://twitter.com/...719452645232640

5 years for Mike Napoli??? Are you kidding me?

I had pretty much convinced myself that we'd be forced to accept four years to get him and I was kinda reluctantly okay with that. Five years is two years more than I am really comfortable with.

On the other hand, it's not like he's blocking anyone.

Only if the last 2 years are team options. Has Ben learned anything from the past few years?

Would it be too much to ask that this be shelved on things that haven't even happened?

[MikeM]

I'm liking Napoli a lot as a face value option, but 5 years is a long freaking commitment on a 31 year old player with only one 500 AB season on his resume (which just so happens to also be his worst).

I'm not even too crazy on a "get it done" 4, unless we are talking team option/vesting stuff on that last year.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

If four years is necessary to get the deal done I can grit my teeth and get on board. I would be fairly confident that the fourth year would likely be sunk cost for a player dropping off a cliff, but for a good shot at two productive seasons and a third that could be productive and hopefully won't be devoid of some positive value, it's probably worth it. Five years would be too much for me to rationalize, though. Of course, until we see something more substantial than a tweet suggesting five years, I'll resist the urge to panic.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 25 November 2012 - 03:16 PM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I'm liking Napoli a lot as a face value option, but 5 years is a long freaking commitment on a 31 year old player with only one 500 AB season on his resume (which just so happens to also be his worst).

I'm not even too crazy on a "get it done" 4, unless we are talking team option/vesting stuff on that last year.

Well, J.D. Drew was 31 when the Sox gave him a 5 year deal, with a career OPS+ of 132 (to Napoli's 126). Granted, Drew had defensive value but Napoli can potentially catch. Both have obviously missed a lot of time in their careers. Was it wise to go 5 years on Drew? No, and it likely wouldn't be wise to do so on Napoli- but for an upper echelon free agent, you have to outbid the market. It seems likely that someone will give Napoli five years.

[HriniakPosterChild]

Well, J.D. Drew was 31 when the Sox gave him a 5 year deal, with a career OPS+ of 132 (to Napoli's 126). Granted, Drew had defensive value but Napoli can potentially catch.

Napoli can't catch for five years.

And I'd think the early years of the contract are when we have no shortage of options behind the plate.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Oh yeah, I agree, that he won't catch. Just suggesting that injury prone 31 year old's often get 5 year deals.

What are we thinking for Napoli's AAV? 5 years, $55M doesn't seem terrible to me, but 5 years, $70M does.

[EvilEmpire]

They have money, no internal options, and don't want to trade prophets.

And you guys think Yankee fans are high on our prospects.

[maufman]

I don't think that's correct. A simple regressed 5-4-3 WAR projection for Napoli puts him at ~3 WAR (+28 runs above replacement). A contract in the range of 3/39 or 4/45 is perfectly fair based on that basic measure.

There are other issues to consider - will Napoli have a sharper than usual decline phase? can you get more value out of Napoli by moving him off C? - but a simple baseline projection for Napoli puts his expected contract in the range of the years and dollars which have been discussed.

Can you explain what you mean by "regressed 5-4-3 WAR projection" here? If it means what I think it means, it gives too much weight to his career year in 2011, and also his career high GP in 2010.

Also, I'm curious if "regressed" takes into account that Napoli is entering his age 31 season -- when projecting a player's age 31-34 production, obviously a steep discount from his age 28-30 production is needed.

Bill James projects an 848 OPS and 127 GP for Napoli in 2013. Iirc, James is generally more bullish on hitters than the other projection systems are, so that probably represents the high end of what a traditional sabermetric analysis would expect from Napoli in 2013, with diminishing returns obviously expected in 2014 and beyond.

I'm not dumping on Napoli. Imo, whether the FO signs Napoli is all about cost -- how much more will Napoli cost than Mark Reynolds, or Adam LaRoche (with the latter becoming a lot more attractive if the Sox also plan to sign Hamilton or Greinke).

Edited by maufman, 25 November 2012 - 05:24 PM.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Napoli can't catch for five years.

And I'd think the early years of the contract are when we have no shortage of options behind the plate.

Yeah, I would assume the plan is for him to be an emergency catcher and primary 1st baseman for the first two years then the primary DH once Papi is gone whether it's in year 3 of the contract or years 3, 4 and 5. Drew was brought in with the assumption he'd stick in right field so I don't think that comparison is terribly apt.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I would assume they'd be expecting Napoli to be the 1B for the duration of the contract, not the DH. If the long range plan is for him at DH, who is at first?

[Snodgrass'Muff]

This contract would give them at least two years to develop, trade for or sign one. Napoli is already considered a less than stellar defensive first baseman. I would hope they would be looking to upgrade the position as he gets older and is likely to get worse.

[Laser Show]

I would assume they'd be expecting Napoli to be the 1B for the duration of the contract, not the DH. If the long range plan is for him at DH, who is at first?

Perhaps in the short term, it's Swisher in right and Napoli at first, and long term (i.e. after Ortiz has retired) it's Swisher and Napoli switching off between first and DH.

EDIT: Context

It may not be the splash you were hoping for, but according to the [url=""%20style="]Boston Globe[/url], the Red Sox have had "ongoing negotiations with [Nick] Swisher and his agents" in recent weeks. For general manager Ben Cherington and the Red Sox, Swisher would be a bit of an upgrade over outfielder Cody Ross, with whom Boston has been unable to reach an agreement

Edited by Laser Show, 25 November 2012 - 05:37 PM.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I would assume they'd be expecting Napoli to be the 1B for the duration of the contract, not the DH. If the long range plan is for him at DH, who is at first?

Agree that the whole point of signing Napoli is to fill the 1B hole. The fact that he can double as third catcher is a bonus. We already have three catchers, at least two of whom are better defensive catchers than Napoli. We need a first baseman.

One thing that needs to be emphasized is that this is not a guy who must be platooned. Napoli's platoon splits have been all over the place: strong normal in a couple of years, nonexistent in others, and last year a pretty strong reverse split. But the sum total over his career is a moderate normal split of .845/.911.

As for the worry about him never having played more than X number of games or had more than X number of PA, this is because he's been (mostly) a catcher. You can't look at his playing time record through a normal position player lens. Well, you can, but it's probably a waste of time.

I think the biggest question mark here is whether he really can play 1B adequately.

[HriniakPosterChild]

Yeah, I would assume the plan is for him to be an emergency catcher and primary 1st baseman for the first two years then the primary DH once Papi is gone whether it's in year 3 of the contract or years 3, 4 and 5. Drew was brought in with the assumption he'd stick in right field so I don't think that comparison is terribly apt.

An emergency catcher is never going to be better than a +1 win player on defense (as catcher). Napoli doesn't have a great reputation as a defensive star at 1B. So his value is on the offensive side of the ball.


I remember how Detroit was mocked by some folks here when they signed 31-year-old Victor Martinez to a 4-year deal to play the same role for them we'd expect Napoli to play for Boston. And now some of us seem willing to excuse a 5 year deal for 31-year-old Mike Napoli.

[OttoC]

...
I remember how Detroit was mocked by some folks here when they signed 31-year-old Victor Martinez to a 4-year deal to play the same role for them we'd expect Napoli to play for Boston. And now some of us seem willing to excuse a 5 year deal for 31-year-old Mike Napoli.

I suspect that after a couple of years the Red Sox will be looking for a DH.

[HriniakPosterChild]

I suspect that after a couple of years the Red Sox will be looking for a DH.

Of course, but do they need an overpaid one filling a 25-man roster spot, or can they just hand the spot to a position player who's not playing in the field that day? Fewer teams are taking the first option now.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Of course, but do they need an overpaid one filling a 25-man roster spot, or can they just hand the spot to a position player who's not playing in the field that day? Fewer teams are taking the first option now.

Well, in the last two (if a four year contract) or three (if a five year contract) years of the contract, I would assume he'd be the primary DH with the "benefit" of being able to fill in at 1st or catcher when absolutely necessary. I just think it would be foolish to assume he'll maintain what defensive ability he has for the full five years, never mind the bat that makes his less than stellar defense worth it right now.

[E5 Yaz]

NOTICIAS PARIRROJAS: #RedSox cerca de firmar a Mike Napoli, después de reunirse con el pelotero este fin de semana. #MLB #RedSoxNation

http://bit.ly/YhlUzx

That link gave me a malware warning