325 replies to this topic

[Drek717]

Actually, they might. Imagine for a moment that we trade for Choo, who's going into his third arbitration year and will probably command $8M or so. Now say that we're platooning Choo and Ross; it'll cost us $15M. "Outrageous!" everyone here will cry. Yeah, but if you add up Ross' line vs. LHP and Choo's line vs. RHP from this past year, you basically get Ellsbury 2011 with half the steals. You get an MVP candidate kind of player. Now how much would you pay?

To pull this back to the 1B discussion - this same logic applies at least as well at 1B.

Someone like Morneau might come real cheap in terms of trade cost if we eat all $14M. For that $14M we'll get 400+ ABs against RHP at about a .900 OPS. Meanwhile we have Sands, who can play both 1B and LF and in his limited MLB experience flashed a very strong lefty split (over .900 himself for 86 ABs, small sample of course) along with Lavarnway, who hasn't played 1B before but will likely need to sooner than later as I don't think anyone views him as a 140+ game a year guy behind the dish.

I'd imagine one of them would turn into a capable platoon partner, and carrying both works quite well on a 25 man roster that has Lavarnway platooning with Shoppach at catcher and where Sands could be a good 5th OF bat in an outfield that features Ellsbury, Kalish, and likely Ross, as all three guys can play all three positions in the OF. So if Sands is used to pinch hit at some point he can easily be stashed in LF with some defensive realignment. If Choo is the 3rd starter and Ross is the 4th OF in this mix it works VERY well.

This strategy of finding low acquisition cost players available due to high dollar, short length contracts is the best way the Red Sox can fill the roster openings with high quality players without raiding the farm or locking ourselves into more Carl Crawford/Adrian Gonzalez "hope you don't totally suck when you're 36" type deals.

Edited by Drek717, 02 September 2012 - 09:26 AM.

[Plympton91]

I would not object to a patchwork at 1b in 2013 of some combindation of Gomez/Loney/Sands leading to 2014 infield of Boggarts 3b, Iglesias ss, Pedroia 2b, Middlebrooks 1b.

So, we shouldn't plan on watching the playoffs again until 2015, now?

It seems like some people are content watching a "bridge year" become a "bridge decade."

The Red Sox currently have two major league players in their lineup capable of hitting in the first six spots of a winning team's lineup. If they resign Ortiz, they'll have 3. Unless they plan on finishing last again in 2013 and 2014, then they need to bring in some MVP caliber talent. Career minor leaguers and prospects acquired in a profit maximizing fire sale need not apply.

The Red Sox should be planning their lineup around a top 3 of Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Ortiz, with Middlebrooks 7th, a Salty/Lavarnway platoon 8th, and whoever's at SS hitting 9th. That means that they need 4th, 5th, and 6th place hitters for 1B, LF, and RF.

Just because they made dumb decisions on Crawford and Lackey that more than 1/2 of SOSH identified as such before the ink was dry, doesn't mean that signing FA or trading for near FA and signing them should be abandoned as a strategy for making the post-all-star-game baseball season worth a damn next year.

[JakeRae]

So, we shouldn't plan on watching the playoffs again until 2015, now?

It seems like some people are content watching a "bridge year" become a "bridge decade."

The Red Sox currently have two major league players in their lineup capable of hitting in the first six spots of a winning team's lineup. If they resign Ortiz, they'll have 3. Unless they plan on finishing last again in 2013 and 2014, then they need to bring in some MVP caliber talent. Career minor leaguers and prospects acquired in a profit maximizing fire sale need not apply.

The Red Sox should be planning their lineup around a top 3 of Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Ortiz, with Middlebrooks 7th, a Salty/Lavarnway platoon 8th, and whoever's at SS hitting 9th. That means that they need 4th, 5th, and 6th place hitters for 1B, LF, and RF.

Just because they made dumb decisions on Crawford and Lackey that more than 1/2 of SOSH identified as such before the ink was dry, doesn't mean that signing FA or trading for near FA and signing them should be abandoned as a strategy for making the post-all-star-game baseball season worth a damn next year.

The non-Red Sox top 5 offenses this season in runs scored where the Rangers, Cardinals, Angels, and Yankees. These were also the top 4 teams in wOBA (where the Red Sox drop to 8th. Will Middlebrooks and Cody Ross each have wOBAs of .357 this year. That would be better than all Rangers except Hamilton, Murphy, and Beltran. For the Cardinals, it would fall behind all of Craig, Holliday, Molina, Berkman, Carpenter, and Freese. For the Angels, it would fall behind only Trout, Pujols, and Trumbo. For the Yankees, it would only fall behind Cano, Gardner (34 PA), Chavez, and Swisher although it would tie Wise.

Middlebrooks or Ross would both be top 4 hitters on all of those team except the Cardinals, where they would slide in at 5th, roughly, once you account for the positional overlap at 1B/3B and the fact that Berkman barely played in the 6 guys who have been better than them. In fact, just this season, Middlebrooks has been the third best player on the (currently) 2nd highest scoring offense in the game. Ortiz and Ross (due to more PA) have been better. Gomez has also been better if we count his SSS performance. This team was the second (or 8th by wOBA) best offense despite a mediocre performance from Gonzalez (which Ellsbury should easily equal or better) and a sub-par season from Pedroia that we should expect a bounce back from. They don't need as much firepower as you think they do to continue to be one of the best offenses in baseball. For example, a lineup of:

Ellsbury
Pedroia
Ortiz
Ross
Morneau/(Gomez or Sands)
Middlebrooks
(Kalish or Nava)/Sands
Salty/Lavarnway
Aviles or SS

Would easily be a top 5 offense in the game with realistic performances from the prospects and a non-excessive number of injuries. We can't count on either of those things, but the idea that this offense needs some sort of massive infusion of talent to compete is flat out wrong. What it needs is to find a LH 1B to provide the extra power and balance the lineup needs, to retain Ortiz, and to retain or upgrade from Ross.

[Plympton91]

The non-Red Sox top 5 offenses this season in runs scored where the Rangers, Cardinals, Angels, and Yankees. These were also the top 4 teams in wOBA (where the Red Sox drop to 8th. Will Middlebrooks and Cody Ross each have wOBAs of .357 this year. That would be better than all Rangers except Hamilton, Murphy, and Beltran. For the Cardinals, it would fall behind all of Craig, Holliday, Molina, Berkman, Carpenter, and Freese. For the Angels, it would fall behind only Trout, Pujols, and Trumbo. For the Yankees, it would only fall behind Cano, Gardner (34 PA), Chavez, and Swisher although it would tie Wise.

Yes, but as EV has shown multiple times, and for some reason most people here have not internalized, the Red Sox offense is near the top of the league at Fenway and near the bottom of the league on the road, while the pitching is awful at Fenway and league average on the road. Is this is a function of building the team around players like Ross, who's remaining talents fit Fenway to a T, or whether the large Fenway park effect this season is a fluke.

[Eric Van]

This team is perfectly positioned to take on the final year of a contract like Morneau's or the final arb tear of a guy like Choo. You have a chance to win it all next year (believe it or not, those of you who flunked Sabermetrics 101), so you really do want to get the best players you can.* You have a deep farm system, so you want to hedge your bets and not commit to deals for FA or potential FA until you're sure that they're better than the kid coming through the system. And you can afford to take on contracts.

Here's a Fenway, RHP lineup:

Ellsbury
Pedroia
Morneau
Ortiz
Ross
Choo
Middlebrooks
Saltalamacchia
Aviles

That scores a lot of runs. On the road, you need to sit Ross and insert Nava, probably, maybe moving Choo up until WMB proves he can hit 5th, but it's still a good lineup.

*To win it all, they will have to get lucky, or be very smart (not that you can ever really tell the difference), with whomever they add to the rotation. There's no one remotely as good a fit as Morneau or Choo that I can find. But if they can add someone who pitches like a #2, they have a chance to be win it all. That's really the "only" major off-season roster challenge

Edited by Eric Van, 04 September 2012 - 12:57 PM.

[TheRooster]

3 pages and no mentions of Ryan Howard? They might ask Philly to pick of some of the contract, but I really believe they'll be taking on someone's bad deal.

[gammoseditor]

3 pages and no mentions of Ryan Howard? They might ask Philly to pick of some of the contract, but I really believe they'll be taking on someone's bad deal.

Howard is going to be 32 next year and since the start of last year has hit .249/.340/.480 with half of his games in a very hitter friendly home ballpark. He has either 4 years and $105 million or 5 years and $118 million left on his contract. I'd rather just pay Nick Swisher when he realizes he's not getting paid like a superstar if you're going to spend money at 1B.

Edited by gammoseditor, 04 September 2012 - 01:19 PM.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

Billy Butler will be getting very expensive for KC, any chance of prying him away? He's young and has some nice OBP. numbers the last couple years....would be a monster in Fenway too.

[JakeRae]

3 pages and no mentions of Ryan Howard? They might ask Philly to pick of some of the contract, but I really believe they'll be taking on someone's bad deal.

What's the point of getting out from under one bad contract if you just spend even more money picking up an even worse contract from someone else?

[yecul]

Would Choo be cheap to acquire? I don't think so. But he'd certainly cost less than a mega Hamilton contract or a larger prospect trade.

The team can compete next year and should not ignore the major league product. However, when you start talking stars aligning in order to get those 100 wins that are the perennial projection, you're leaving reality and entering wishville. Sure it can happen, but you're throwing good money after bad if you push for it.

I think that short term patches like a Choo or Morneau would fit into that thesis nicely: can be competent and perhaps get lucky, but not worth "going for it".

Howard would be the opposite of that unless heavily subsidized.

[Dogman2]

What's the point of getting out from under one bad contract if you just spend even more money picking up an even worse contract from someone else?

And if Philly subsidized more than half of his remaining contract?

[MoGator71]

I'm completely on board with the Morneau/Choo idea, granted that depends on what Minnesota and Cleveland would be asking for. Granted we'd all love a real impact #3/#4 type hitter to add to the lineup and bump everybody else down, but outside of Hamilton and the many uncertainties surrounding him there's just nobody available. The worst thing they could do would be to overpay (either in prospects or money) and end up getting less than they expected. With the alternative being punt 2013 and sell low on Ellsbury I think the smart move is short-term guys and make a run with what they've got. You'd need them to be at least relatively healthy, and Lester to get back to being Lester, and hopefully one of the Lackey/Doubront/Morales/De La Rosa/Acebes/pitcher X group would need to step up and pitch at least like a #3 (or better, obviously).

[Rudy Pemberton]

The only problem I have with the Choo / Morneau idea is the unrealistic assumption that these guys will come cheaply. It will take real talent to acquire those players, they are good and useful players who will have a market- especially since the free agents at those positions are so few.

The Indians are clearing tons of payroll this off-season, they only have $11M in payroll right now. Morneau looks more expendable; but it's not as if the Twins have a lot of talent ready to replace him.

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 04 September 2012 - 03:05 PM.

[Savin Hillbilly]

The only problem I have with the Choo / Morneau idea is the unrealistic assumption that these guys will come cheaply. It will take real talent to acquire those players, they are good and useful players who will have a market- especially since the free agents at those positions are so few.

Agreed, particularly in Choo's case, since he is younger and plays a more difficult defensive position. Also, Cleveland's situation is not like Minnesota's; their roster is younger and includes fewer significant payroll obligations, and therefore they have less motivation (it would seem) to go into salary-dumping mode. So I think it will take more talent to dislodge Choo than Morneau.

[yecul]

Sometimes reality steps in and squashes models. So, yeah, they will have to find real world solutions to repeat the past 25 years of 100 shoulda-coulda win seasons.

The Twins might be a better match for getting good value, but I wouldn't expect anyone to hand talent over.

[mt8thsw9th]

And if Philly subsidized more than half of his remaining contract?

I think you're underestimating just how much Ryan Howard has deteriorated since 2009. He would essentially be a platoon DH in the AL, and I don't see him being the type of hitter that would fit in Fenway.

[Plympton91]

The only problem I have with the Choo / Morneau idea is the unrealistic assumption that these guys will come cheaply. It will take real talent to acquire those players, they are good and useful players who will have a market- especially since the free agents at those positions are so few.

The Indians are clearing tons of payroll this off-season, they only have $11M in payroll right now. Morneau looks more expendable; but it's not as if the Twins have a lot of talent ready to replace him.

Minnesota has an in-house option to replace Morneau, Chris Parmelee, who flunked an early season test but is still quite young and destroyed AAA.

I'd love to see the Red Sox trade Kalish for Choo; Kalish's upside is Choo's present value, and we have more people behind Kalish who can play RF if/when Choo leaves via free agency.

[yecul]

Do you see that as a realistic option? I guess the better question is what would you add to Kalish to make Cleveland interested? Does Kalish still have much value?

[Eric Van]

Agreed, particularly in Choo's case, since he is younger and plays a more difficult defensive position. Also, Cleveland's situation is not like Minnesota's; their roster is younger and includes fewer significant payroll obligations, and therefore they have less motivation (it would seem) to go into salary-dumping mode. So I think it will take more talent to dislodge Choo than Morneau.

The Indians have said they will trade Choo, period, since as a Boras client he refuses to sign, and they know they can get more for him than the value of a first-round pick. So it won't take anything to "dislodge" him; you just have to be the team that offers the best package.

It might be interesting to see who else might be in the market for a one-year OF rental. You do get a pick at the end of the year to help offset the acquisition cost.

I'd love to see the Red Sox trade Kalish for Choo; Kalish's upside is Choo's present value, and we have more people behind Kalish who can play RF if/when Choo leaves via free agency.

Kalish, however is the best bet to be the LH side of a platoon with Ross for the next couple of years; he just has to be better than Nava or Sweeney. So he has present value.

I was thinking Cecchini and Wilson (although you'd offer Mortensen first instead).

[Plympton91]

I'd be loathe to trade Cecchini, who I think is the 5th or 6th best prospect in the system after Lavarnway and the B's.

If you're talking LF, I'm not sure why you'd prefer Kalish to Nava for a 1 year platoon role. Nava was clearly a better hitter this year, by quite a bit, and they seem equally brittle. Kalish trumps Nava as a RF due to range and arm, but in his limited exposure to th big leagues he's also shown questionable focus out there.

Yecul asked the right question, does Kalish still have enough shine to get somebody like Choo.

[JimBoSox9]

Billy Butler will be getting very expensive for KC, any chance of prying him away? He's young and has some nice OBP. numbers the last couple years....would be a monster in Fenway too.

What do you mean by "getting expensive"? Butler signed a contract last year, made $8 this year, is making the same in 2013 and 2014. You'd like to see a bit more pop (and this year shows it may well be developing), but that's a pretty team-friendly contract. I'd certainly kick the tires on him because I'm a fan, but wouldn't expect KC to be giving a break on the return for money reasons.

Edited by JimBoSox9, 04 September 2012 - 11:19 PM.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

8 mil is expensive for KC, my thought was that they have a similar type player in Hosmer, and Butler although costly in prospects might be someone who fits what the Org. should/could be looking for. Not sure how he is defensively at first although my assumption is that he'd be passable.

Just looking at who is out there and who fits the high OBP. , Youngish, and on a relatively short term deal. I also like the idea of trading for one of the St. Louis logjam 1stbase prospects.

although I hate trading anything from the system that could be a building block, there are some redundancies especially 3rdbase/relief pitcher etc.

[mabrowndog]

The Rangers decided not to make a qualifying offer to Mike Napoli, which might not mean much to the Sox and other potential suitors with protected first-round picks, but it makes him that much more attractive to the other 19 MLB clubs.

At one point I was certain he'd be the best 1B target, with the ability to catch on occasion and a swing tailor-made for Fenway. Now I'm not so sure, and it's more than just the fact that he won't cost teams a draft pick.

* Can he stay healthy? Since he stopped riding the AAA shuttle as an Angels prospect, he's played 114, 140, 113 and 108 games the last 4 years. A bruised quad suffered July 13 hampered him the rest of the season including a 5-week DL stint. Other absences last year ranged from an ankle sprain (residual from the '11 WS injury) to a groin strain to the flu to ocular migraines (he apparently had Lasik surgery last month to address his vision issues). In 2011 he lost a month to an oblique strain. Some of his absences with the Angels in 2009-10 were due to Scioscia's displeasure/discretion for various reasons, but he did have persistent shoulder issues.

* How concerning are his splits? It's not just the LHP/RHP thing, where he had a severe reverse split against lefties last year (.179/.295/.411/.706 in 132 PA with a .185 BABIP) while handling righties (.250/.365/.496/.861 in 285 PA with a .315 BABIP). This was totally out of character for him given his career norms.

However, here are his 2012 season lines facing a pair of opposing teams:

vs LAA - .442/.567/ .904/1.471, 67 PA, .500 BABIP
vs BOS - .389/.500/1.111/1.611, 22 PA, .375 BABIP

Against everyone else? .177/.287/.348/.634 in 328 PA with a .221 BABIP. Holy freaking shit. So 16 of his 35 extra-base hits, including 10 of 24 HRs, came over 89 PA against just two clubs.

Considering he'd only be playing at most 6 or 7 games annually against the Angels, and wouldn't be facing Sox pitchers at all, that seems like a pretty huge deal. Again, were injuries the culprit here? And if so, why were they so inconsequential against the Sox and Angels?

* How big a liability is his defense? Scioscia wasn't shy about how much he hated Napoli's work behind the plate. Assuming he wouldn't see that much time catching for Boston, if any, even his play at first base leaves lots to be desired. He's slow afoot, has sloth-like reaction time and Jeterian range, and wears a lead glove. These are borne out by nearly every fielding metric. Fangraphs has him at -4.8 fielding runs last year.

On the plus side, even with other bidders he'll be more affordable. Napoli's agent said early last season he expected his client to get something between Victor Martinez (4/$52M) and Yadier Molina (5/$75M) on the FA market. A dismal 2012, coupled with the Rangers not even making a $13.3M qualifying offer, probably sets the bar more in the 3/$30M to 4/$36M range.

Napoli turned 31 last week, while Youkilis will be 34 in March. Even though he presents the same injury concerns as Napoli, right now I'm thinking Youk on a 2-year deal would be the more productive and lower-risk choice.

Edited by mabrowndog, 03 November 2012 - 10:25 AM.

[ScubaSteveAvery]

Great work mabrowndog on the Napoli splits data. Those splits are pretty revealing, and I think damning at the price that Napoli is commanding. I would let some other team pay for 89 PA of awesome.

[seantoo]

What about Adam LaRoche who played here for all of 6 games a few years ago? He be more than a bridge player but less than a long term commitment. Could he be had for 3 yrs. at say $38M. Unfortunately he won a gold glove this year which will make his cost go up.
Three of the last 4 years he's played in over 150 games. I'll focus on his last 3 healthy seasons. He has hit 25 to 33 HR. His OBP has been around average to slightly above, .355,.320, .343, SLG%, .488, .468, .510, His cummaltive WAR (fangraphs) for the 3 seasons has been 7.4 or 2.47 AVG.
http://www.fangraphs...904&position=1B
I thinks he's a Will Middlebrooks type hitter.
At Fenway I think his numbers might go up slightly masking or offesetting the beggining of his declining years in the last year or two of my proposed deal.
Melky Cabrera might be a good option in the LF. Perhaps he'd take a 1 yr overpay deal to prove his numbers are more than steroids than he can go for a bigger/longer contract next off-season.

[kazuneko]

Great work mabrowndog on the Napoli splits data. Those splits are pretty revealing, and I think damning at the price that Napoli is commanding. I would let some other team pay for 89 PA of awesome.

Of course one thing those splits overlook is the fact that one of the big reasons Napoli kills the Sox is he loves their ballpark. Napoli has a career 1107 OPS (.306/.397/.710) at Fenway Park. That is - by far - his best OPS in any park that he has over 50 career ABs....
Of course 60 ABs could be a fluke - especially with a hitter as streaky as Napoli- but he is the type of fly ball generating, pull-powerhitter that would seem perfect for Fenway. There is also some talk that after something of an off year last year, he might be looking for a Beltre-esque one-year contract to set himself up for a bigger payday next offseason. If that's true, Napoli might deserve a serious look for 1B....

Edited by kazuneko, 03 November 2012 - 09:32 PM.

[OttoC]

Of course one thing those splits overlook is the fact that one of the big reasons Napoli kills the Sox is he loves their ballpark. Napoli has a career 1107 OPS (.306/.397/.710) at Fenway Park. That is - by far - his best OPS in any park that he has over 50 career ABs....
Of course 60 ABs could be a fluke - especially with a hitter as streaky as Napoli- but he is the type of fly ball generating, pull-powerhitter that would seem perfect for Fenway. There is also some talk that after something of an off year last year, he might be looking for a Beltre-esque one-year contract to set himself up for a bigger payday next offseason. If that's true, Napoli might deserve a serious look for 1B....

The sample sizes are small. He has almost identical splits in PA and AB between hitting against Red Sox pitchers at Boston and at Texas: 73/62 vs. 72/63. One AB is worth about 16 points in AVG and one HR, about 64 points of SLG.

He may well prefer batting in Fenway but I am reluctant to place great reliance in numbers that can be skewed by a hit or two.

[reggiecleveland]

* Can he stay healthy? Since he stopped riding the AAA shuttle as an Angels prospect, he's played 114, 140, 113 and 108 games the last 4 years. A bruised quad suffered July 13 hampered him the rest of the season including a 5-week DL stint. Other absences last year ranged from an ankle sprain (residual from the '11 WS injury) to a groin strain to the flu to ocular migraines (he apparently had Lasik surgery last month to address his vision issues). In 2011 he lost a month to an oblique strain. Some of his absences with the Angels in 2009-10 were due to Scioscia's displeasure/discretion for various reasons, but he did have persistent shoulder issues.

A guy with a lot of muscle injuries generally does not age well. Groin injuries and oblique injuries are not good signs. Usually guys out or shape, or more likely in this case, big inflexible guys get these types of injuries. Another part of this is, bad as he is with the glove, if he is banged up at all he probably can't take the field and the Sox just signed Ortiz for two years.

Edited by reggiecleveland, 03 November 2012 - 11:43 PM.

[Buckner's Boots]

Not a match--the board goes back.

Napoli, at this point in his career, is a DH (we already have one of those) or a hybrid 1B/DH. Others have said "let others pay". I agree.

[kazuneko]

Per Michael Silverman in the Boston Herald today:

The Sox have long coveted first baseman/catcher free agent Mike Napoli, making it more than likely that the ballclub will explore signing him. They will also take a look at free agent first baseman Adam LaRoche. Kevin Youkilis [stats] has not closed the door about returning to the Red Sox, according to a baseball source and earlier this week, Cherington told WEEI that the Red Sox have “got to be open minded” about re-signing Youkilis.

[MoGator71]

I think I still prefer a Morneau/Gomez platoon over signing any of the FAs. It's likely that guys like LaRoche and Swisher are going to make around what Morneau makes (and more in Swisher's case), and will require longer-term commitments.

What about Kendrys Morales? Is there any chance Anaheim looks at moving him, or are they comfortable playing Trumbo in the OF and using Morales as their regular DH?

[MHead81]

For reasons already stated, I do not think Mike Napoli is the answer at 1B.

Washington gave Adam LaRoche a qualifying offer, so signing him will cost our 2nd-round draft pick. I'm guessing he'll sign something like a 3/$30M-$36M deal. In 2012 he posted his highest fWAR to date, which was 1.3 WAR higher than his previous best (a whopping 2.5) 6 seasons ago. According to UZR, he has been a really good defensive 1B over the last 3 years, but his offensive line for the last 3 seasons combined is only .255/.327/.462/.789. I wouldn't feel comfortable giving up a draft pick and a multi-year deal to sign a player who I probably wouldn't even want on a 1-year deal that didn't require surrendering a draft pick.

It might be wishful thinking, but I still think a Youkilis/Morneau platoon is the best option, with Swisher being second. (FWIW, Keith Law just named Youkilis as the best value buy this offseason for corner infielders.)

I took Youkilis' 2012 numbers vs. LHP and Morneau's 2012 numbers vs. RHP, added them up and came up with a .286/.395/.520/.915 line over 646 PA, which would have been good for a 152 OPS+ and 3.97 P/PA. For comparison, Adrian Gonzalez' OPS+ in 2012 was 116. Both Youkilis and Morneau were still banged up all year too; it would be nice to see how they could do while being rested and avoiding playing through nagging injuries as much as they have in the past.

Morneau is due $14M in 2013. I wonder if Youkilis would sign for something like 1/$8M (maybe with an option). That would cost $22M at 1B for 2013, and while Gonzalez would have cost $21M in 2013, it's essentially a wash because you're swapping Youkilis & Morneau ($22M) for Gonzalez & Punto ($22.5M) since Youkilis would be the backup 3B with (probably) Ciriaco being the backup 2B/SS/3B.

I suppose another interesting scenario would be seeing how a Morneau/Gomez platoon looks, which would be $7M+ cheaper.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Spending 20M+ on a platoon at first base (and giving up what it takes to get Morneau) doesn't seem like a great use of resources, nor does it seem like something either player would be happy about. Laroche is interesting, was there ever any explanation as to why the Sox traded him so quickly back when they had him?

[MHead81]

Spending 20M+ on a platoon at first base (and giving up what it takes to get Morneau) doesn't seem like a great use of resources

As I said in a different thread, I did some very liberal estimates (using worst-case scenarios for annual salaries) on a roster that could be put together (which also included signing Greinke at 6/$120M) and I came up with a payroll that was between $150-160M. That total is already lower due to Ortiz signing for $2M less per year than I penciled him in for. As has been discussed in many threads recently, Morneau will not cost much in trade.

As to whether or not the dollars seem like a good use of resources or not, I disagree.

It's safe to say that this ownership has set a spending cap at just below the CBT cap, which is a perfectly reasonable decision. They can certainly afford a payroll that is in the $160M range. Saving a few million in any given season is irrelvant because it's not like that will mean spending the money saved in another. If you want to make the case that committing to another $21M x 7 contract at 1B does not seem like a good use of resources, that is a different argument that I agree with. But spending big on short-term deals and allowing for future roster flexibility and turnover (while still having room to make additions in season if they so choose) seems like an ideal way for a team with the resources of the Red Sox to capitalize on their financial advantage, rather than putting all their eggs in one basket by investing in premium contracts.

Laroche is interesting

How is LaRoche interesting? Even without Morneau to platoon with him, I'd still take Youkilis over LaRoche every day of the week, and Youkilis won't cost a draft pick either.

I don't understand the interest in filling positions with mediocre options that have little upside when there are many better options available. I understand that there are many prospects that will hopefully be forcing their way onto the roster in the near future, but that fact shouldn't ascertain that a truly competitive team can't be assembled in the meantime.

The Baltimore Orioles just made the playoffs after a 69-93 record in 2011, and the Yankees look terribly old and are basically up against their self-imposed salary cap. This is absolutely a division that can be won in 2013 by making the right moves. Solutions to the holes that this organization needs to fill are all available to them, and without either mortgaging the future in trades or sacrificing long-term roster flexibility with massive contracts to do so.

I'm all set with LaRoche being our starting 1B for 2013.

[mt8thsw9th]

For what it's worth, those are awful ideas. The Red Sox aren't spending $20+ million on a platoon, and especially not ~$8 million on the RHH portion. Not to mention the asinine assumption that the RHH portion would be okay with being a part time player.

[bosockboy]

Laroche is interesting, was there ever any explanation as to why the Sox traded him so quickly back when they had him?

They traded for Victor like a week later.

[reggiecleveland]

Where does anyone get the idea Youkilis would platoon? This isn't 1970 when you know your starter is going to face the starting lineup three or four times. I want to see an end to the Youkilis Morneau talk. It isn't happening. The Red Sox do not have either player, and the idea Youkilis would come back to Boston for 200ab is silly.

[Savin Hillbilly]

They traded for Victor like a week later.

But they intended Victor to play as much C as anything else. They actually flipped LaRoche directly for Kotchman, I'm guessing because LaRoche was going to be a type B FA, while Kotchman was cost-controlled.

[Toe Nash]

Spending any money on first this offseason would be a mistake. They should try to find some low-cost, high-upside guys and hope they get the next Encarnacion, Carlos Pena, Chris Carter, etc. There are always "failed" prospects who figure it out, or switch to first after struggling at other positions, and provide a real bargain. Given it's not imperative to contend in 2013 they should be using that opportunity to try to find one of these guys rather than locking up the position with a Swisher or Youkilis (or really anyone on the wrong side of age 27). If they don't find one this year and the rest of the team improves, look to the free agent or trade market in the offseason. If they're unexpectedly in contention near the trade deadline and first is still a hole, make a move for a first baseman.

Had the FO not had a boner for Gonzalez and a strong desire to contend, they may have been a little more patient and we'd be looking at 5 years of cost-controlled Anthony Rizzo who had a 112 OPS+ at age 23 last year. They should learn from this now that the emphasis on contending is somewhat lifted.

Get the difficult positions to fill (for the Sox: pitching, shortstop, catcher, maybe CF depending on Ellsbury / Bradley) figured out and you can always find a decent-enough bat for first when you're ready to contend.

[kazuneko]

Unless the Cubs can move the unmovable (AKA the Soriano contract) Bryan LaHair will almost certainly get traded this offseason. Blocked at 1b by Rizzo, there is also no place for him at either of the corner of positions as Dejesus - similarly weak against LHP but with better defense - mans RF, and Soriano will play LF.
LaHair would have to be part of a platoon as he can't hit LHP to save his life, but finding someone who can hit lefties and cover 1b shouldn't be that difficult, and -at the very least - the Sox could try Gomez in that role.

[YTF]

Where does anyone get the idea Youkilis would platoon? This isn't 1970 when you know your starter is going to face the starting lineup three or four times. I want to see an end to the Youkilis Morneau talk. It isn't happening. The Red Sox do not have either player, and the idea Youkilis would come back to Boston for 200ab is silly.

Or Morneau for that matter. Neither one of these guys is looking for, or accepting a platoon role unless it's a desperation grab to hang onto an MLB career and I don't think either is at that stage yet.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

But they intended Victor to play as much C as anything else. They actually flipped LaRoche directly for Kotchman, I'm guessing because LaRoche was going to be a type B FA, while Kotchman was cost-controlled.

I think it was this and they felt Kotchman was going to be less of a malcontent being a part-time player (a player in LaRoche's position as a pending FA wants steady playing time). At the time they picked up LaRoche, Lowell was just returning from a DL stint in which Mark Kotsay (and Aaron Bates) saw most of the playing time at 1B. Once they picked up Victor, that gave them a more potent bat that could play 1B if needed, so they went out and got the cheaper player who wouldn't make waves sitting on the bench.

I think the RHH half of a possible 1B platoon is in house with Gomez. So they either should be shopping for a full time 1B or a LHH to be the strong half of a platoon. It makes no sense at all to sign Youkilis to be a platoon player. He's likely to be too expensive for such a role, and I can't see him signing up for it in the first place.

[seantoo]

For reasons already stated, I do not think Mike Napoli is the answer at 1B.

Washington gave Adam LaRoche a qualifying offer, so signing him will cost our 2nd-round draft pick. I'm guessing he'll sign something like a 3/$30M-$36M deal. In 2012 he posted his highest fWAR to date, which was 1.3 WAR higher than his previous best (a whopping 2.5) 6 seasons ago. According to UZR, he has been a really good defensive 1B over the last 3 years, but his offensive line for the last 3 seasons combined is only .255/.327/.462/.789. I wouldn't feel comfortable giving up a draft pick and a multi-year deal to sign a player who I probably wouldn't even want on a 1-year deal that didn't require surrendering a draft pick...

Your using his only injury (flukey) riddled season as part of a flawed basis. His last 3 healthy years (09,'10 & '12) he's hit .270 (455/1686) his OBP has been (223/627).355, (197/615).320, & (222/647).343 for an average of .3398 and his slugging is .488 during that time period. An OPS total of .828 and a gold glove winner to boot. Overall he'll likely be a good value and will cost only a second round pick. He the perfect cross between a bridge player and long term solution.His contract should be reasonable and he's good enough that he would not prevent us from contending as his team did just that last year. Your underselling him. He the best know commodity out there right now.

Edit: Last sentence: He is the best know commodity out there right now that we know is available.
That should be implied but it's added just in case that's not clear.

Edited by seantoo, 06 November 2012 - 08:36 AM.

[dylanmarsh]

As mentioned in the other thread (and FWIW), Heyman and his unnamed expert think Napoli will get either 1yr/$9MM or 2yrs/$16MM. They have LaRoche between $39MM and $56MM. Youks is right around $20MM over 2 years.

[bosockboy]

As mentioned in the other thread (and FWIW), Heyman and his unnamed expert think Napoli will get either 1yr/$9MM or 2yrs/$16MM. They have LaRoche between $39MM and $56MM. Youks is right around $20MM over 2 years.

If Napoli goes for 2/16 you have to jump on that....warts and all. Hard to believe one off year would suppress his market that badly. He was having 5/70 bandied about this time last year.

[MikeM]

There is also some talk that after something of an off year last year, he might be looking for a Beltre-esque one-year contract to set himself up for a bigger payday next offseason. If that's true, Napoli might deserve a serious look for 1B....

...and how much playtime at catcher are we going to be offering? Because in an attempt to set himself up for a bigger payday next winter, that strikes me as being a fairly relevant factor.

As far as all this Morneau talks goes, if we make that trade he'll be getting every opportunity (and then some) to see those 200ab's against here against LHP. Period. You either like him as a rebound candidate to take a 1 year flyer on to be our everyday starter, or you don't. But as others have already pointed out, this notion that we'd be trading for him and that contract as a "let's build a .900 ops platoon at first" option from the start is getting rather silly imo (at least once you get beyond the initial/isolated appeal and then take that concept off paper).

[MoGator71]

Well, I think it's a little extreme to expect to do something like sign Youk to be the RHH half of said platoon and drop something north of $20M on the 1B platoon...because while on the surface, yes, it's cheaper than Gonzalez and possibly comparable (not defensively, but that's beside the point), you're dismissing the opportunity cost of tying up 2 roster spots vs. 1 if we had a regular 1B like Gonz or whoever. In that scenario your backup MI also has to be your 5th OF, whereas with a regular 1B your bench is a backup C, backup MI (Ciriaco?), and 2 OF's. Not a huge deal, but something to think about...between carrying a full-time DH and 12 pitchers you're pretty restricted when it comes to running a strict platoon anywhere.

Now if they felt like they wanted to use Sands as the RHH half then it's a little more cost-effective, plus he's an option in the OF as well.

Edited by MoGator71, 07 November 2012 - 10:34 AM.

[Edelpeddle]

The more I look at this free agent class, and consider what the quality players will be asking for in free agency, the more I think it will take two years to rebuild the right way. We could be a very good team in 2013, but that would likely involve signing older, declining players such as Torii Hunter, giving so-so free agents such as Adam Laroche longterm contracts because it's a thin market at their position, or gambling on players coming off injuries such as Morneau, McCarthy. I would rather the Red Sox wait another year and build the right way so we aren't back in this position in two years. Many of the players we've discussed trading for will be free agents after next season (McCann, Morales, Morneau, Morse, Wright, Choo, Pence, Floyd, Garza, Johnson, Lincecum, etc.).

I would rather wait a year, see what we have in Lavarnway, Iglesias and Kalish, possibly trade Ellsbury for more prospects once he gets his value back up, and use Jackie Bradley Jr. in center. We'll also have a better idea of what we have in Bogaerts and Barnes. Perhaps we could pencil them in somewhere in 2014. That way we could build up our farm system and have cost controlled players under contract for the next six years. That sounds much more appealing to me than giving away prospects to acquire expensive players who will be under team control for one year.

[Yaz4Ever]

The more I look at this free agent class, and consider what the quality players will be asking for in free agency, the more I think it will take two years to rebuild the right way. We could be a very good team in 2013, but that would likely involve signing older, declining players such as Torii Hunter, giving so-so free agents such as Adam Laroche longterm contracts because it's a thin market at their position, or gambling on players coming off injuries such as Morneau, McCarthy. I would rather the Red Sox wait another year and build the right way so we aren't back in this position in two years. Many of the players we've discussed trading for will be free agents after next season (McCann, Morales, Morneau, Morse, Wright, Choo, Pence, Floyd, Garza, Johnson, Lincecum, etc.).

I would rather wait a year, see what we have in Lavarnway, Iglesias and Kalish, possibly trade Ellsbury for more prospects once he gets his value back up, and use Jackie Bradley Jr. in center. We'll also have a better idea of what we have in Bogaerts and Barnes. Perhaps we could pencil them in somewhere in 2014. That way we could build up our farm system and have cost controlled players under contract for the next six years. That sounds much more appealing to me than giving away prospects to acquire expensive players who will be under team control for one year.

I agree with this idea. No sense in even considering washed up/injury prone guys for a $20M or so platoon at 1B and I have zero interest in seeing Youkilis walk through a door I don't think he wants to walk through anyhow. I was excited when I saw we were interested in Hunter, but then I remembered that it's not still 2005. Unless he's practically free, why would we want an older, declining guy like him no matter how solid his character is, who his best friend is, or how good he used to be?

Unless we get blown away with some sort of trade (Rizzo and Castro from the Cubs for Ellsbury, Iglesias, and whatever else it would take or Andrus for Ellsbury or whatever - for the record don't see these deals happening) I say we stick with our youth and see what we've got for a season. As Edelpeddle says, guys like McCann, Choo, Morales, etc will be free agents after 2013. If we can patch what we've got with guys like them, it'll be a better approach than following the same free spending path we've wandered down for the last couple of years of Theo's reign.

[Hairps]

Assume for a minute that we want the Sox to build a cost-effective 1B platoon for next year, as the team holds onto its minor league assets for more pressing needs. I could live with Gomez or Jerry Sands taking the ABs vs. LHP through the trade deadline, when the team could re-assess things. So, what are some possible low-cost options for the vs. RHP platoon-mate?

Eric Chavez - He enjoyed a bit of a resurgence with NYY last year in a similar role, so it seems he is clear-eyed about his place (and potential salary) at this stage in his career. Injuries will always be a concern, as they were again last season. He, of course, had his glory days at 3B, which could be an advantage in a pinch if Middlebrooks needs to take a more frequent break.

Daric Barton - A rumored non-tender candidate in Oakland, Barton is another oft-injured LHH whose strengths (as they were) come in an ability to get on base and play excellent defense.