325 replies to this topic

[gammoseditor]

Brett Wallace is a guy I'd keep an eye on. The Astros might not want to move him with the move to the AL, but they have a top 1B prospect in Jonathan Singleton. They could also move Fernando Martinez to the DH spot if he emerges. They'll probably keep all three because Martinez and Wallace both have risks, but if they wanted to move any of them it would be good to get involved.

[The Gray Eagle]

Sands will be 25 next year. As a RH bat who can cover LF and 1B, there's no problem with giving him a shot on the big club playing at least half the time. He should be in the picture as a possibility at first and being able to play LF makes him easier to keep on the roster. Gomez is pretty fungible, but maybe he'd be okay in a platoon. But we should bring in one more guy who is likely to be a good hiter to battle with these guys, and give us options-- one or two of them should work out. As for who the other bat could be, the good thing is that we don't need to decide for months. Let's see who's available in trades this offseason.

As for OF, Sweeney should not be part of the picture. He's not good and he's not even that young. He doesn't have much upside. He doesn't need to be taking up a roster spot.

[Eric Van]

Definitely think Sands is more platoon guy and fill a Millar-like role ideally playing some 1B and LF at Fenway. His AA numbers two years ago are the only data I'd look at hard since the PCL just can really obscure things. A 890 at AA at 22 is legit.

Sands' MLE EqA (TAv) in red, starting in 2008, with commentary:

.209, R
.264 (60% .265 at R+, 40% .262 at A).

Despite dominating the Midwest league he's sent back there for half a year...

.279 (49% .300 at A, 51% .259 at AA)

A .300 MLE in A ball is of course meaningless; he's just way too good for the league. So they skip him over A+ and he's quite good in AA, and is named their minor league player of the year and #6 prospect in the system. What happens next is backwards enough that I broke it down in detail:

.247 (35% .267 in MLB, 65% .236 at Albuquerque)

This is what happened:

.400 / .442 / .875 in 43 PA in AAA, recalled on April 18
.200 / .294 / .328 in 144 PA in MLB, optioned on June 7
.250 / .339 / .396 in his first 56 PA back in AAA
.344 / .414 / .803 in his next 70
.170 / .259 / .360 in his next 112
.258 / .296 / .591 in his next 71
.364 / .422 / .709 in his last 64
.342 / .415 / .493 in 83 PA in MLB in September

.257 (95% .263 in AAA)

At some point I'll probably parse his 2012 game log in a similar fashion, but I'll be surprised if he wasn't as streaky.

It's really hard to make any kind of confident projection for a guy who can put up a 619 OPS for a full month in Albuquerque, and then, a month later, put up a 908 OPS for close to a month, in MLB and Dodger Stadium. The assumption that his ratio of hot to cold will remain the same going forward is unwarranted. And the hot streaks are consistent with the glowing scouting reports. According to the MLEs he's made no progress as a hitter for several years, but what might actually be happening is that as he's moved up the ladder, he's been more prone to slumps. I'm going to look at his 2010 and maybe 2009 game logs, as well.

[Drek717]

I'm not sure I like Morneau even as a stopgap - he's not the hitter he was before all the head knocks and he's expensive (tho that's obviously less of a concern now - still no reason to spend just because they can). If it's a true salary dump and we aren't giving up a real prospect - fine, but we shouldn't be afraid to trade talent if it'll get us somebody as good or better who's cheaper. I like the idea of trading for one of the Cards kids or Lahair - and Kendrys Morales seems like he should be available, Trumbo ain't really an OFer so the Angels should be open to moving Morales so Trumbo can DH. I think any of those guys give us what we can reasonably expect from Morneau at this point.

Morneau has rebounded quite well against RHP, his biggest struggles now are against LHP, which is why we'd need to platoon him.

And the big upside for Morneau as opposed to Lahair, Matt Adams, Trumbo, or Morales is that he should cost basically nothing but money. All the other guys will require a significant piece from our own roster. Bridging with Morneau allows Sands and Shaw a chance to break through and provide an internal option.

[Carroll Hardy]

AAAA is filled with guys who do exactly what EV is talking about: sometimes these Brian Daubachs can get to a friendly venue like Fenway with lots of lineup help where they can bat 6th-8th and the streaks are tolerable given their lowered expectations. Inronically, the aggregate ends up as a consistent 833 OPS: 20-25 HRs, 80 RBIs and .260 average production at MLB minimum for three years until arb eligibility raises the bar and makes their streakiness intolerable. For comparison purposes, Adrian Gonzalez put up an 812 OPS during 2012 for $21M.

Edited by Carroll Hardy, 25 August 2012 - 03:36 PM.

[JakeRae]

I think the right course for the remainder of the season is to DFA Loney (we know what he is and he's not someone we should want) and letting Sands and Gomez both get significant playing time at 1B. Sands can play some LF and Gomez can play some 3B to keep them both in the lineup consistently. I don't care if this team wins another game this year, so I don't care if Gomez is inadequate defensively at 3B. The next month-plus should be about figuring out what they have for next year. Loney is not part of that equation so let him go. I would then revisit the future of 1B this offseason with more information about what the two cheap in-house possibilities can do at the position. Out of the options mentioned so far, seeing if the Red Sox can take Morneau off the Twins hands is the most intriguing to me. I'd platoon him with whoever wins the Sands/Gomez competition while the other waits in the wings in AAA. It's also possible that the Red Sox see enough in Sands to be willing to hand him a starting job next year. Whether that is 1B or LF would depend on how he looks at the two positions down the stretch.

[Rudy Pemberton]

James Loney is younger than Mauro Gomez; and has been a very good major league player fairy recently. Why wouldn't you at least want to get a look at him and see if a change of scenery helps? We're he a free agent, he seems like the exact kind of buy low candidate that would be intriguing.

[Scoops Bolling]

Sands' MLE EqA (TAv) in red, starting in 2008, with commentary:

.209, R
.264 (60% .265 at R+, 40% .262 at A).

Despite dominating the Midwest league he's sent back there for half a year...

.279 (49% .300 at A, 51% .259 at AA)

A .300 MLE in A ball is of course meaningless; he's just way too good for the league. So they skip him over A+ and he's quite good in AA, and is named their minor league player of the year and #6 prospect in the system. What happens next is backwards enough that I broke it down in detail:

.247 (35% .267 in MLB, 65% .236 at Albuquerque)

This is what happened:

.400 / .442 / .875 in 43 PA in AAA, recalled on April 18
.200 / .294 / .328 in 144 PA in MLB, optioned on June 7
.250 / .339 / .396 in his first 56 PA back in AAA
.344 / .414 / .803 in his next 70
.170 / .259 / .360 in his next 112
.258 / .296 / .591 in his next 71
.364 / .422 / .709 in his last 64
.342 / .415 / .493 in 83 PA in MLB in September

.257 (95% .263 in AAA)

At some point I'll probably parse his 2012 game log in a similar fashion, but I'll be surprised if he wasn't as streaky.

It's really hard to make any kind of confident projection for a guy who can put up a 619 OPS for a full month in Albuquerque, and then, a month later, put up a 908 OPS for close to a month, in MLB and Dodger Stadium. The assumption that his ratio of hot to cold will remain the same going forward is unwarranted. And the hot streaks are consistent with the glowing scouting reports. According to the MLEs he's made no progress as a hitter for several years, but what might actually be happening is that as he's moved up the ladder, he's been more prone to slumps. I'm going to look at his 2010 and maybe 2009 game logs, as well.

EV, it might be worthwhile to see if you can find any relationship between those slumps and attempted adjustments to his swing. I know the Dodgers tried to change it this year, and that his return to his original swing around the All-Star break seems to correspond very well to his hot streak since that time. It's possible that something similar happened in 2011.

Edited by Scoops Bolling, 25 August 2012 - 04:12 PM.

[Eric Van]

EV, it might be worthwhile to see if you can find any relationship between those slumps and attempted adjustments to his swing. I know the Dodgers tried to change it this year, and that his return to his original swing around the All-Star break seems to correspond very well to his hot streak since that time. It's possible that something similar happened in 2011.

Good idea; when I do the 2010 and 2012 game logs I'll also Google him and see if game stories say anything about the hot and cold streaks. (Unfortunately, all I expect is the usual platitudes ... "I'm just seeing the ball real well right now.")

[JakeRae]

James Loney is younger than Mauro Gomez; and has been a very good major league player fairy recently. Why wouldn't you at least want to get a look at him and see if a change of scenery helps? We're he a free agent, he seems like the exact kind of buy low candidate that would be intriguing.

By younger, do you mean 4 months older?

Mauro Gomez has shown steady improvement for the last 5 seasons now and could very well be a late bloomer. He has prototypical 1B power and now has 3 straight seasons in the upper minors that justify giving him a look to see how that will translate to MLB. I'm not holding my breath hoping he turns into a star, but I think he could be a solidly above average player. Loney has 6 full seasons of, largely, getting worse at the MLB level under his belt. He has no power and never will have any, which makes his ceiling that of a slightly above average player. Loney isn't a prototypical change of scenery guy, he's a prototypical journeyman bench player/occasional starter on a bad team.

Edit: I also am curious when James Loney was ever a "very good" MLB player. He was a barely average MLB player fairly recently, which is the best he's ever done.

Edited by JakeRae, 25 August 2012 - 04:21 PM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

You're right, Gomez is a little younger. Loney is young enough to have potential; i think he could put up an 800 OPS and provide solid defense; he was a very good player his first few years, after all. I think it's at least worth some at bats down the stretch to see what Magadan. I guess I'm not that bullish on Gomez, though.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Edit: I also am curious when James Loney was ever a "very good" MLB player. He was a barely average MLB player fairly recently, which is the best he's ever done.

OPS+ by year of 125, 134, 103, 104, 98, 110, 78. So he's been bad this year but was pretty good last year and at least OK every other year, and his defense is very good.

[ookami7m]

Sands isn't getting playing time this season - PTBNL

[Rasputin]

Sands isn't getting playing time this season - PTBNL

So for this season we get almost zip. Nice. And by nice, I mean, that blows.

[PedroSpecialK]

Eh, it's really not a bad thing. Why not tank and give the kids playing time? It'll be nice to see what Loney's got outside of Chavez Ravine, at least.

Edited by PedroSpecialK, 25 August 2012 - 04:44 PM.

[Carroll Hardy]

Sands' MLE EqA (TAv) in red, starting in 2008, with commentary:

.209, R
.264 (60% .265 at R+, 40% .262 at A).

Despite dominating the Midwest league he's sent back there for half a year...

.279 (49% .300 at A, 51% .259 at AA)

A .300 MLE in A ball is of course meaningless; he's just way too good for the league. So they skip him over A+ and he's quite good in AA, and is named their minor league player of the year and #6 prospect in the system. What happens next is backwards enough that I broke it down in detail:

.247 (35% .267 in MLB, 65% .236 at Albuquerque)

This is what happened:

.400 / .442 / .875 in 43 PA in AAA, recalled on April 18
.200 / .294 / .328 in 144 PA in MLB, optioned on June 7
.250 / .339 / .396 in his first 56 PA back in AAA
.344 / .414 / .803 in his next 70
.170 / .259 / .360 in his next 112
.258 / .296 / .591 in his next 71
.364 / .422 / .709 in his last 64
.342 / .415 / .493 in 83 PA in MLB in September

.257 (95% .263 in AAA)

At some point I'll probably parse his 2012 game log in a similar fashion, but I'll be surprised if he wasn't as streaky.

It's really hard to make any kind of confident projection for a guy who can put up a 619 OPS for a full month in Albuquerque, and then, a month later, put up a 908 OPS for close to a month, in MLB and Dodger Stadium. The assumption that his ratio of hot to cold will remain the same going forward is unwarranted. And the hot streaks are consistent with the glowing scouting reports. According to the MLEs he's made no progress as a hitter for several years, but what might actually be happening is that as he's moved up the ladder, he's been more prone to slumps. I'm going to look at his 2010 and maybe 2009 game logs, as well.

The intriguing thing about streakiness is being able to focus on what a guy CAN do (carry a ballclub on his back for 2-3 weeks at a time) vs. what he CAN'T do (find a way to end slumps soon enough to stay above a certain floor). A guy who could consistently hit 908 OPS in MLB and Dodger Stadium is, by definition, a superstar. Not many guys can do that - but a guy who can do it for a month might be able to learn how to do it for longer. And when they DO get hot, you've got a David Ortiz circa July 2002 or Carlos Pena circa August 2004.

[JakeRae]

OPS+ by year of 125, 134, 103, 104, 98, 110, 78. So he's been bad this year but was pretty good last year and at least OK every other year, and his defense is very good.

A 110 OPS+ out of a 1B is not pretty good. It's below average. He's a career .284/.341/.423 hitter. That line is weighted up by the fact that he showed power production in his first 500 PA in MLB, split across 2006 and 2007, that he hasn't come close to since. Those OPS+ numbers are only good if you ignore the fact that 1B need to be sustantially better than league average offensively to be valuable offensive players. As a point of comparison, Davenport translates Gomez' line from AAA this year at .295/.349/.568. His line from the previous year translates at .284/.329/.474. His line from the season before that translates at .255/.306/.411. You can see the steady rate of improvement as well as the clear advantage his last 2 years have over any on Loney's last 5 seasons.

I'm not trying to argue that Gomez is the second coming nor that he will live up to his lofty DT from this year. But, it's worth giving him a shot to see if he can and there is no reason to give playing time to a guy that is a known quantity and a league average hitter at 1B.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Those projections would make Gomez one of the best hitters in baseball, so hope so. I'm not saying Loney is awesome, just that he has shown potential, isn't that old, and perhaps playing half his games at an extreme pitchers park messed him up over a time. A 110 OPS+ with very good defense, even at first, has value. I think there's a middle ground; where you get a good look at both Loney and Gomez the rest of the way. Agree to disagree, I guess!

[barclay]

These last two posts together sum up what I think is certainly an option the FO is considering, even if not #1 on their hit parade. Namely, a platoon -- Loney (who, in this scenario, would be resigned on a 1-2 year deal) is there already (his splits are telling -- he cannot hit lefties but puts up a very decent line against RHP). Gomez hits LHP well (according to his minor league stats). Loney is an above average fielder who can also be a late inning defensive replacement on days Gomez plays. And, when Gomez is in the field, one has a handy dandy excuse to reach for the gin -- without tonic, of course.

Edited by barclay, 25 August 2012 - 06:58 PM.

[AZBlue]

I would not object to a patchwork at 1b in 2013 of some combindation of Gomez/Loney/Sands leading to 2014 infield of Boggarts 3b, Iglesias ss, Pedroia 2b, Middlebrooks 1b.

[Rasputin]

I would not object to a patchwork at 1b in 2013 of some combindation of Gomez/Loney/Sands leading to 2014 infield of Boggarts 3b, Iglesias ss, Pedroia 2b, Middlebrooks 1b.

Or you could find a real first baseman and go Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, Pedroia, FirstBasemanX

[Savin Hillbilly]

Or you could find a real first baseman and go Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, Pedroia, FirstBasemanX

Didn't you get the memo? We're not allowed to project Bogie as a SS, not even for one little season. He will continue being able to suit up and trot out to a position just west of second base as long as he is wearing a minor league uniform, but the minute he is promoted to the majors, that ability will disappear faster than Cinderella's coach.

[foulkehampshire]

Or you could find a real first baseman and go Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, Pedroia, FirstBasemanX

I'm afraid that there aren't any "real/elite" first basemen on the market for a long while.

Going to have to develop or trade for one. Plenty of options.

[YTF]

I think you have to give at least give Loney a good look to see what you've got. I have no idea if he's a pull hitter or not, but a portion of Boston's right field has to be an advantage for him over hitting in Chavez Ravine. If he can get the ball in the air to the opposite field the wall can be his friend. So 1/2 his games at Fenway vs Chavez should be an advantage with another 9 in New York and 9 more in Baltimore that can be very lefty friendly puts you at nearly 2/3 of the season in parks that COULD serve him better than his situation in LA. The flip side of course is the pitching in the AL vs the NL

[Yo La Tengo]

As for the ultimate small sample size, I've seen a few Sea Dogs games this year and watched the Sea Dogs game tonight.... Shaw is listed at 6'4" and 225 by sox prospects and looks about 5'11" and 190, and not particularly impressive against tonight's middling pitching line. He looks years and years away from Fenway, for any of you looking to bridge the gap until he arrives.

[Philip Jeff Frye]

Honestly, they should just go for a stop-gap and see how Travis Shaw performs for 2013 in AA/AAA. The kid can hit period.

The Sox are enamored enough with him to draft him twice and this year as a 22-year old he has put up the following lines.

A+ Salem 423 PA--- 411/545/957 (ass-kicking)
AA Portland 91 PA --341/442/782 (very respectable start)

Portland has always been more of a pitchers league and he's 2 years younger than league average. Let him start there next year, maybe he earns a promotion to AAA at some point next year and then perhaps he breaks through in 2014.

if the Sox are truly going into a buiild from the farm system and fill in with FA's, guys like Shaw are the way to go when looking at the future. If you want to spend in FA I'd prefer young up the middle guys or young SP's. Let your farm do the work on corner players.

Isn't this less impressive than what "where did my career go?" Lars Anderson did through his age 20 season in A+/AA ball?

[SoxScout]

Isn't this less impressive than what "where did my career go?" Lars Anderson did through his age 20 season in A+/AA ball?

What does Travis Shaw have to do with the career trajectory of Lars?

[Philip Jeff Frye]

What does Travis Shaw have to do with the career trajectory of Lars?

It points out that you shouldn't be penciling somebody into your lineup a year or two down the road based on a handful of at bats in Portland.

Of couse, the countless Lars Anderson-type examples we have of this doesn't seem to ever stop this thinking here.

[mfried]

People aren't considering defense very seriously in this discussion. Gonzalezmwas superb and saved the IF numerous errors. Lonely might be able to match that attribute and get a fresh start as a hitter, though more of a doubles type.

[The Gray Eagle]

It points out that you shouldn't be penciling somebody into your lineup a year or two down the road based on a handful of at bats in Portland.

Of couse, the countless Lars Anderson-type examples we have of this doesn't seem to ever stop this thinking here.

Look at the ballparks Lars played in and Shaw has played in. Anderson had huge numbers at an absolute launching pad. Shaw has played at normal ballparks. That's an absolutely vast piece of context that you are ignoring.

[knucklecup]

Given the FA class, I would like to see what Loney can do.

After seven years in Los Angeles, Loney is likely sick of Dodger Stadium. He is a career .273 hitter with a .713 OPS there and fares much better on the road, where his lifetime numbers are .295 and .813, respectively.
A move to Fenway and the change of scenery should give Loney an opportunity to increase his dreadful power numbers. The once potential star hit 15 home runs in 96 games back in 2007, but hasn't hit more than 13 in a season since. He's only tallied four home runs this year—all away from Dodger Stadium.
Loney's lack of hitting ability at a power position had been troublesome for the Dodgers, but it was his defense that kept him around as a starting major league player. He's one of the best in the game, but isn't noticed as much as Mark Teixeira or Adrian Gonzalez because of his struggles at the plate.

http://bleacherrepor...-boston-red-sox

For three years now I've thought of him as somebody who was in desperate need of a change of scenery. What he excels at doesn't play well at Dodger Stadium, and he's also playing 18 more games in San Diego and San Fran. I see him as a poor man's Gonzalez and wouldn't be surprised if he finishes next year with an OPS in the 800-850 range playing for the Red Sox.

Keeping Gomez around as insurance/a platoon partner is a no brainer.

Loney made $6.375 million this season but probably could be had for one year/$5 million give or take, right? If so, I think it's a smart move to make.

Edited by knucklecup, 26 August 2012 - 06:14 PM.

[Hairps]

Brandon Belt always seemed to me a guy the Sox would/should have their eye on if they ever had reason to trade for a first baseman. He seems to find himself consistently out of favor with the Giants' front office.

http://www.fangraphs...264&position=1B

[foulkehampshire]

Brandon Belt always seemed to me a guy the Sox would/should have their eye on if they ever had reason to trade for a first baseman. He seems to find himself consistently out of favor with the Giants' front office.

http://www.fangraphs...264&position=1B

The guy was a top 30 prospect in baseball last year.

For discussions with Brandon Belt, they're probably asking for at least a Bogaerts, Barnes, or Bradley +.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Brandon Belt always seemed to me a guy the Sox would/should have their eye on if they ever had reason to trade for a first baseman. He seems to find himself consistently out of favor with the Giants' front office.

I thought it was Bochy more than the front office who was bearish on Belt. But he's playing regularly and raking right now (.929 OPS in 78 August PA), so I think that window of opportunity, if there ever was one, has closed. He's their starting 1B.

[Al Zarilla]

I thought it was Bochy more than the front office who was bearish on Belt. But he's playing regularly and raking right now (.929 OPS in 78 August PA), so I think that window of opportunity, if there ever was one, has closed. He's their starting 1B.

Bochy still benches Belt to keep Buster Posey's bat in the lineup, at first base, when Buster needs a break from catching because his leg is still not 100.00%. Belt had a hot first half of August, but has cooled off again some. He's not hitting for power which frustrates everyone because of his size. Jury's still out. He should be hitting more consistently by now, and with more power. Finally, if he is going to hit long term, that's what the Giants need, hitting, so why woud they entertain moving him?

[Savin Hillbilly]

So, here is a short-to-medium-sized list of plausible candidates for the Sox 1B job next year--please feel free to suggest additions or subtractions, or edits to the pros and cons:

In hand
Mauro Gomez - PRO: power hitter with decent PD, rakes LHPs; CON: poor contact, poor defense, old at 27
Jerry Sands - PRO: strong slash line at every ml level; CON: strikes out a lot, streaky, just fair in limited ML duty

Free agents
James Loney - PRO: good D, young for ML experience; CON: little power, mediocre PD, coming off worst season
Adam LaRoche - PRO: solid, reliable veteran, decent PD & power; CON: meh defense; at 33, risky investment
Mike Napoli - PRO: good power, good Fenway fit, can fill in at C; CON: poor defense, coming off poor year

Trade targets
Justin Morneau - PRO: best player on the list when healthy; CON: coming off injury, under contract for just one (expensive) year, may cost too much talent unless Twins approach as salary dump
Matt Adams - PRO: big-time power potential; CON: doesn't appear quite ready, may cost a lot of talent
Matt Carpenter - PRO: great PD, can play 3B, appears ML ready, may cost a bit less than Adams; CON: just gap power

Edited by Savin Hillbilly, 28 August 2012 - 12:54 PM.

[ToeKneeArmAss]

.400 / .442 / .875 in 43 PA in AAA, recalled on April 18
.200 / .294 / .328 in 144 PA in MLB, optioned on June 7
.250 / .339 / .396 in his first 56 PA back in AAA
.344 / .414 / .803 in his next 70
.170 / .259 / .360 in his next 112
.258 / .296 / .591 in his next 71
.364 / .422 / .709 in his last 64
.342 / .415 / .493 in 83 PA in MLB in September

Excellent thread on a topic that's been front of mind for me since the trade.

LTTP, but when I look at the stats above I wonder if maybe Sands has a hole in his swing. Teams that know about it get him out, teams that don't don't.

Might be interesting to see if there's any correlation between the opponents who shut him down at AAA and those that didn't.

FWIW

[Eric Van]

Excellent thread on a topic that's been front of mind for me since the trade.

LTTP, but when I look at the stats above I wonder if maybe Sands has a hole in his swing. Teams that know about it get him out, teams that don't don't.

Might be interesting to see if there's any correlation between the opponents who shut him down at AAA and those that didn't.

FWIW

Interesting idea, but it doesn't seem to explain it at all.

His first hot streak was against Omaha (5 games), Iowa (4), Oklahoma City (2).
His first cold streak was against Nashville (3), Oklahoma City (5), and Iowa (4)
His immediately following hot streak began against Oklahoma City (4) and Iowa (4).

He faced Ramon Ortiz of the Iowa Cubs in all three streaks. In those games he went 2-3, HR, IBB, SF; 0-4, SO; 1-3, HR, HBP.

Subsequently there was some inevitable divergence, teams he only faced hot or cold, but I think the above argues strongly against opponent being a factor.

[Eric Van]

Trade targets
Justin Morneau - PRO: best player on the list when healthy; CON: coming off injury, under contract for just one (expensive) year, may cost too much talent unless Twins approach as salary dump

A big con with Morneau is that he needs to be platooned, and that his big split makes him LOOGY-killable in late innings. He has a big career split, .267 / .323 / .476 with the bases empty, .296 / .378 / .517 with runners on, that I'm quite certain is real (without guys like him and Youk I wouldn't have been able to show that career hitting across all the different men-on situations was correlated profoundly, i.e., guys who have hit better with men on 1st and 2nd than the bases empty tend to be the same guys who have hit better with men on 2nd and 3rd, and this works for every possible pair of situations -- which you would never see if such differences were random). So we know he's not lacking for "clutch." Yet he's .248 / .326 / .434 late and close, which is suspiciously like his .254 / .302 / .430 career line against LHP. He's probably seen nothing but LOOGYs and closers late and close his whole career.

But if you bat him after Pedroia and before Ortiz, he'll be the guy they bring the LOOGY in to face, and they ought to have Cody Ross on the bench 65-70 games and Mauro Gomez or Jerry Sands the rest of the time. And I actually think that many managers will not bring in the LOOGY if they know that Ross will hit: that's a much worse matchup than Morneau versus a good RH 8th-inning guy. Hopefully Gomez or Sands can have enough success to make the entire strategy a loss. You just have to be willing to pinch hit for him, despite his MVP pedigree.

The more I think about it, the more I like it.

[ToeKneeArmAss]

Interesting idea, but it doesn't seem to explain it at all.

His first hot streak was against Omaha (5 games), Iowa (4), Oklahoma City (2).
His first cold streak was against Nashville (3), Oklahoma City (5), and Iowa (4)
His immediately following hot streak began against Oklahoma City (4) and Iowa (4).

He faced Ramon Ortiz of the Iowa Cubs in all three streaks. In those games he went 2-3, HR, IBB, SF; 0-4, SO; 1-3, HR, HBP.

Subsequently there was some inevitable divergence, teams he only faced hot or cold, but I think the above argues strongly against opponent being a factor.

Thanks for doing the legwork. If anything that reinforces streakiness, esp. considering same opponents and often, same opposing pitchers. Sounds like he's tinkering with his swing (or finds his groove and then loses it).

[Rudy Pemberton]

Good luck to whoever the manager is trying to explain that kind of playing situation to a player. It sounds good and works on paper (much like a Jamesian type bullpen) but I think you'd have a real challenge gettIng buy in from a player.

[snowmanny]

So, here is a short-to-medium-sized list of plausible candidates for the Sox 1B job next year--please feel free to suggest additions or subtractions, or edits to the pros and cons:






Free agents
James Loney - PRO: good D, young for ML experience; CON: little power, mediocre PD, coming off worst season
Adam LaRoche - PRO: solid, reliable veteran, decent PD & power; CON: meh defense; at 33, risky investment
Mike Napoli - PRO: good power, good Fenway fit, can fill in at C; CON: poor defense, coming off poor year
when healthy; CON: coming off injury, under of talent

Youkilis will be a free agent if Chicago doesn't pick up his $13M option.

[BosRedSox5]

A big con with Morneau is that he needs to be platooned

Morneau's splits haven't always been that bad. If he has a resurgence (which we'd be gambling on if we traded for him) then I think he could hold his own.

[Super Nomario]

Re: Loney
For his career, he seems to have been really hurt by tough pitchers' parks. If you exclude Chavez Ravine, AT&T Park, and Petco, his career line is .311/.360/.484. He's shown less of an extreme split since 2010, but he's still .290/.391/.428 away from those three tough parks over that time span.

The problem with Loney is that I don't think you can evaluate much for the rest of the season; he's too streaky. He put up basically all of his 2011 production in August / September and still got off to a bad start in 2012. A hot streak might convince the Sox he's the answer at 1B but it's not necessarily indicative of anything.

[Rasputin]

I am very curious how they will try to apply "discipline" in the face of "the market." After all. flexibility is supposed to provide the ability to overpay to get what the team really needs. Ho they approach Loney may be the first indication.

Shorter term contracts to external free agents.

I think if they give a contract of more than three or four years it will be to a home grown player who is younger where they're buying out arb years and the first year or so of free agency.

[SaveBooFerriss]

How about Chase Utley as an option? It looks like he has to move off 2b. 1b would certainly have the least adjustment. I think he still has the bat to be a solid, if not premium 1b.

SInce Philly may not have a spot for him, he may come relatively cheap.

[DanoooME]

How about Chase Utley as an option? It looks like he has to move off 2b. 1b would certainly have the least adjustment. I think he still has the bat to be a solid, if not premium 1b.

SInce Philly may not have a spot for him, he may come relatively cheap.

I'd think if they had to move him off of 2B, they have an opening at 3B, since Polanco has fallen out of favor with the team with his playing time complaints. He is propped up by CBP more and more (933 OPS at home vs. 697 on the road) and I don't think Fenway would help him all that much. He also has a partial no-trade (9 teams)

Besides, there would be riots in the streets if he was traded out of Philly. And that's just the women fans (he's their version of ELJE).

[SaveBooFerriss]

I'd think if they had to move him off of 2B, they have an opening at 3B, since Polanco has fallen out of favor with the team with his playing time complaints.

I have read that Utley may not have the arm for 3b and, if he can't physically handle the rigors of 2b, he probably can't handle 3b. I think the rest of your points are accurate.

[NDame616]

Wait, why do people think Ross should play 1B?

[Savin Hillbilly]

Wait, why do people think Ross should play 1B?

Yeah, we got sidetracked. Maybe the dopes can move some of these posts to the Ross thread or the LF thread.