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Cody Ross


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#1 BosRedSox5


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Posted 19 August 2012 - 10:20 AM

http://www.bostonglo...UJ9O/story.html

It's buried, but Cafardo says the Red Sox are very interested in re-signing Cody Ross. I like Ross, he seems like a fun guy with a good sense of humor. He's a decent hitter and he plays D at all 3 OF spots...

All that being said, I wouldn't re-sign him. Certainly not for a Josh Willingham like contract (3 years 21 mil).

What do you guys think? Is he part of the team's 2013 plans?

#2 czar


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Posted 19 August 2012 - 10:38 AM

Honestly? I'd love for him to clear waivers so we could ship him off to SFO. No doubt a lefty masher but will be entering his mid-30's and has a career wOBA of .317 against RHP.

The Sox have Nava/Kalish/Bradley/Brentz as options in the next 2 years (coupled with the ever-present Carl Crawford and possibly extended Jacoby Ellsbury). OF shouldn't be a priority via FA (save Ellsbury) until at least 2014.

#3 absintheofmalaise


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Posted 19 August 2012 - 10:46 AM

http://www.bostonglo...UJ9O/story.html

It's buried, but Cafardo says the Red Sox are very interested in re-signing Cody Ross. I like Ross, he seems like a fun guy with a good sense of humor. He's a decent hitter and he plays D at all 3 OF spots...

All that being said, I wouldn't re-sign him. Certainly not for a Josh Willingham like contract (3 years 21 mil).

What do you guys think? Is he part of the team's 2013 plans?

Why don't you want to sign him to that type of contract? It seems like you've thought about it. What are your reasons.

#4 Alcohol&Overcalls

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Posted 19 August 2012 - 10:50 AM

Actually, at 3/$21mm, Ross is probably correctly paid - he's about a 2-win player given 400 to 500 ABs. The problem is that's about 300 more ABs than he can possibly get against LHP, and he does all of his damage there.

I disagree a bit with czar, because the availability of LHH cheap options (Kalish, Bradley, even Nava if this year's split is believed) makes a carrying a straight platoon guy a bit more financially viable - you're only really paying the short half of the platoon. The flexibility to give all 3 OF spots a night off if needed (plus insurance against a god damned Tommy John surgery) might make up for the last year of the deal being an almost-assured loser.

It's hard to call such a move good or bad without seeing how the Sox will handle this offseason - rounding out the roster for a contender, he becomes a luxury worth exploring, but if there's some significant roster restructuring, Ross becomes too much to absorb.

#5 Plympton91


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Posted 19 August 2012 - 11:00 AM

If they have $7 million a season left over in 2013-2015 after having secured Ortiz, a relief ace to pair with Bailey, and another top of the rotation starter, then they should sign Ross. Otherwise, the three things I listed are much, much higher priorities that will affect the ability of the team to compete with other playoff teams to a much greater extent.

Edited by Plympton91, 19 August 2012 - 11:06 AM.


#6 BosRedSox5


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Posted 19 August 2012 - 11:35 AM

Maybe I'm wavering a little bit on trying to keep Ross. I think Bradley and Brentz look nearly ready in AA but could both probably use another season or two. Kalish is a big question mark. Where did the Kalish of 2010 go? Is he ever going to be a legitimate starting RF? Ross is a monster against lefties, he terrorizes them, and in an outfield with Ellsbury and Crawford (not to mention opportunities to DH if Ortiz leaves) he could be pretty useful... but I think it's a mistake to give 7 million a year to a guy hitting .260/.327/.438/.764 since 2010. Even if he has wrought terrible and fiery vengeance against lefties this season.

Also, I think Willingham is a bad comp. In the same time span he hit .256/.361/.494/.855 without a glaring weakness in his splits. Granted, Willingham is pretty much strictly a LF/DH at this point and Ross offers more flexibility, but $7 mil seems to be starter money, and I see Ross as more of a OF super sub who can be counted on to spot start or pinch hit. I really don't know if I want him starting in RF next season without a platoon partner, and $7 mil seems steel for that. Even if it would be a nice stopgap to Bradley or Brentz.

I hope that the outfield market is good enough (http://www.baseballp...ts/?page_id=177) and he likes Boston enough to drive his asking price down. Personally, I think Cafardo was winging it when he used the Willingham deal as a comparison, so who knows how much Ross wants, but I'd feel a lot better about 3, 4 or 5 million a year for 3 years than 7. Maybe we could even add performance escalators.

#7 YTF

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Posted 19 August 2012 - 11:41 AM

If they have $7 million a season left over in 2013-2015 after having secured Ortiz, a relief ace to pair with Bailey, and another top of the rotation starter, then they should sign Ross. Otherwise, the three things I listed are much, much higher priorities that will affect the ability of the team to compete with other playoff teams to a much greater extent.


A huge question here would be this. Given the shit show of last September AND this season to date, what direction will ownership take for the 2013 season? If ownership finally decides that enough is enough and feels that part of a change going forward needs to be a purging of some of the onfield talent, then will they feel that bringing Ortiz back at the dollar amount it's going to take to keep him happy is an option that they will want to pursue. Now they may not do much as far as changing the faces in the clubhouse but depending on if and who, do the Sox bring him back if they are going to experience any sort of rebuilding next year? And if not, perhaps Ross becomes "affordable".

Edited by YTF, 19 August 2012 - 11:53 AM.


#8 dynomite

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Posted 19 August 2012 - 11:46 AM

The Sox have Nava/Kalish/Bradley/Brentz as options in the next 2 years (coupled with the ever-present Carl Crawford and possibly extended Jacoby Ellsbury). OF shouldn't be a priority via FA (save Ellsbury) until at least 2014.


This is exactly how I feel, and I'm a pretty big Cody Ross fan.

2012 Red Sox runs scored: 597 (3rd in MLB)
2012 Red Sox runs allowed: 554 (25th in MLB) (!!)

To return to playoff contention, the Red Sox must focus on a complete renovation and rethinking of the pitching staff. Every other issue facing the team, in my opinion, should come a distant second on the list of priorities.

Despite playing most of the year without their starting LF and CF and getting a .745 OPS from their All-Star 1B for the first half of the season, the Red Sox remain one of best hitting teams in baseball. Again, this is an offense that has given 100+ PA to Darnell McDonald (80 OPS+), Marlon Byrd (61), and Nick Punto (54).

If that extra $7 million/year (?) can help us renovate the pitching staff, that's how it should be spent. Indeed, the only reason to retain Ross I can foresee is in the event of a trade -- if Ellsbury is packaged for a front-of-the-line starting pitching, for example. Short of that, I wish him luck elsewhere.

Edited by dynomite, 19 August 2012 - 11:48 AM.


#9 Sprowl


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Posted 19 August 2012 - 12:11 PM

Ross is a good signing for short years and short money. A small raise from this year's $3m and a two-year contract seem to me like a good investment in a Fenway specialist. He is competent and flexible in the field, amiable with the press (and probably in the clubhouse), and an excellent RHB platoon partner for a lineup with many LHB and likely to face many LHP. It depends on how highly one rates Bryce Brentz and how soon he might be ready (2014, probably), since Brentz and Ross appear to have similiar profiles and skill sets.

Ross can probably get a better offer elsewhere, in which case of course he's gone.

#10 jsinger121


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Posted 19 August 2012 - 12:18 PM

I would trade him right now even if this team wanted to resign him after this year. Get the prospects now for him as this team is going nowhere with him now.

#11 bosockboy


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Posted 19 August 2012 - 12:22 PM

My gut says the offseason will be centered around the attempted acquisition of an ace (Hernandez).....and if the parts moved leave an OF hole....Ross will fit that need. My inclination is to try and find a way to keep him since he is more suited to Fenway than any park and genuinely enjoys the market.

#12 Savin Hillbilly


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Posted 19 August 2012 - 01:34 PM

Actually, at 3/$21mm, Ross is probably correctly paid - he's about a 2-win player given 400 to 500 ABs. The problem is that's about 300 more ABs than he can possibly get against LHP, and he does all of his damage there.


That's a bit of an exaggeration. The average OPS for ML outfielders this year is .758. Ross' OPS vs. RHP is .726. He's just mildly below average, not a black hole.

It's actually the home/road split that's much more pronounced for Ross this year than the platoon split: .305/.364/.621 at home, .233/.305/.393 on the road. If we sign him, I would probably bench him on the road vs. RHP, and start him the rest of the time. That would give him about 450-500 PA. He should earn $7M that way.

#13 dynomite

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Posted 19 August 2012 - 07:51 PM

Ross is a good signing for short years and short money. A small raise from this year's $3m and a two-year contract seem to me like a good investment in a Fenway specialist.


Sprowl my friend, I've loved you since your psyche was still shattered, but we part ways here. There's no way he'll sign that contract.

Player A: .272-24-80
Player B: .247-29-98

Player A is Ross projected through the end of the season. Player B is Josh Willingham's 2011 campaign, which earned him that 3 year/$21 million contract mentioned in the first post and a starting gig.

In an ideal world, even at $7 million/season we could afford Ross -- a nice player who seems to love this town and loves hitting in Fenway. In this world, where the Sox are weighed down with dead wood contracts (Crawford/Lackey/Beckett) and bumping into the luxury tax threshold, I think we muddle our way through 2013 with the promise of Kalish and Bradley in 2014.

As the 2013 bridge, then, what about Jonny Gomes?

Ross vs. LHP: .330/.402/.766
Gomes vs. LHP: .286/.392/.556

Sure he's not as good, and he's an outright liability against RHP, but Gomes only commands a 1 year, $1 million deal, and would probably benefit from playing in Fenway as well.

Platoon him with Nava (.872 OPS vs. RHP) and I think that's a completely acceptable RF tandem at bargain basement prices.

#14 Sprowl


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Posted 19 August 2012 - 09:13 PM

Sprowl my friend, I've loved you since your psyche was still shattered, but we part ways here. There's no way he'll sign that contract.

Player A: .272-24-80
Player B: .247-29-98

Player A is Ross projected through the end of the season. Player B is Josh Willingham's 2011 campaign, which earned him that 3 year/$21 million contract mentioned in the first post and a starting gig.

In an ideal world, even at $7 million/season we could afford Ross -- a nice player who seems to love this town and loves hitting in Fenway. In this world, where the Sox are weighed down with dead wood contracts (Crawford/Lackey/Beckett) and bumping into the luxury tax threshold, I think we muddle our way through 2013 with the promise of Kalish and Bradley in 2014.

As the 2013 bridge, then, what about Jonny Gomes?

Ross vs. LHP: .330/.402/.766
Gomes vs. LHP: .286/.392/.556

Sure he's not as good, and he's an outright liability against RHP, but Gomes only commands a 1 year, $1 million deal, and would probably benefit from playing in Fenway as well.

Platoon him with Nava (.872 OPS vs. RHP) and I think that's a completely acceptable RF tandem at bargain basement prices.


I am on board with signing a RHB platoon outfielder at reduced cost -- there are always players available in that category, Ross and Willingham being just two recent exemplars. I also agree that Ross will probably get a better offer, in which case thanks and buh-bye. The market for right-handed-hitting outfielders is prone to excess of supply over demand, and it would not surprise me to find that Ross has no more takers next year than he did this year. He may have come off injury, but his limitations as well as his talents are still obvious.

#15 dynomite

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Posted 20 August 2012 - 12:00 AM

The market for right-handed-hitting outfielders is prone to excess of supply over demand, and it would not surprise me to find that Ross has no more takers next year than he did this year.


I would love for that to be the case, as I really do like Ross. If he's willing to sign here for short years and money, I'd extend him tomorrow, and hope that he's alright splitting time with Kalish et al. and eventually is our 4th outfielder and DH against LHP.

Otherwise, what about Gomes as part of a Nava/Gomes platoon to get us through 2013?

Oddly, there aren't that many attractive alternatives through free agency this year. Raul Ibanez will be 41 and can't hit LHP. Ichiro interests me, but he'll probably want more money and playing time than a 38-year-old with a .295 OBP should get. Swisher's almost certainly re-signing with New York, Torii Hunter's almost certainly staying in LA, and Xavier Nady is Xavier Nady.

Another option: J.C. Linares? The guy's hitting AAA LHP at .324/.378/.647.

#16 Eric Van


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Posted 20 August 2012 - 03:12 AM

2012 Red Sox runs scored: 597 (3rd in MLB)
2012 Red Sox runs allowed: 554 (25th in MLB) (!!)


2012 Red Sox runs scored per game on the road: 4.29 (17th in MLB)
2012 Red Sox runs allowed per 9 innings on the road: 4.12 (7th in MLB)

(At home it looks like they rank 2nd and 28th, which of course tells you nothing about the team at all.)

Edited by Eric Van, 20 August 2012 - 03:12 AM.


#17 SoxScout


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Posted 25 August 2012 - 05:38 PM

BOSTON -- The Red Sox have told outfielder Cody Ross they want him back for the 2013 season, a baseball source said Saturday, adding that the sides may work out an extension before the end of the season.

Having established his offensive bona fides, Ross, 31, is expected to seek a three-year deal from the Sox.

http://espn.go.com/b...-him-back-in-13

Cafardo on NESN says Ross will be in line for 3/$27M.

Edited by SoxScout, 25 August 2012 - 05:39 PM.


#18 E5 Yaz


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Posted 25 August 2012 - 05:53 PM

BOSTON -- The Red Sox have told outfielder Cody Ross they want him back for the 2013 season, a baseball source said Saturday, adding that the sides may work out an extension before the end of the season.


But they can still trade him over the next week ...

#19 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 25 August 2012 - 06:14 PM

3 years 27M seems like an overpay and one thy will regret (wasn't he looking for 3/21 last year?) but they have the cash, want to keep him, and the momentum of a guy having a good year and wanting to stay here is positive, but this seems like the kind of contract a team like the O's or Pirates used to do, one that we'd laugh at.

#20 Toe Nash

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Posted 25 August 2012 - 06:24 PM

I like Cody a lot, but he's only at .251/.312/.432 vs. RHP, even with Fenway's help, and that's pretty much in line with his career. He's a nice guy to have but not a good player to commit 3/$27 to, especially when he's just a bench guy in 2014 if you re-sign Ellsbury and Kalish and Bradley work out (or another prospect).

If they're not planning to re-sign Jacoby then there's likely room for Cody.

Edited by Toe Nash, 25 August 2012 - 06:25 PM.


#21 bosockboy


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Posted 25 August 2012 - 06:25 PM

I bet it lands at 3/24 or thereabouts.....maybe a tad high but probably the modern equivalent of what they extended Trot for in I believe 2003. Similar players....with Ross being better defensively.

#22 Sprowl


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Posted 25 August 2012 - 07:57 PM

2 years, $8m max. He's a platoon and park specialist, not a star. If he goes elsewhere, more power to him.

#23 dynomite

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Posted 25 August 2012 - 11:34 PM

After the Great Escape of 2012, I've come 180 degrees on Ross, and might be willing to go even higher than Sprowl now to keep a respected veteran with 25 HR power. According to FanGraphs, over the last three seasons Ross was worth an average of $8.3 million.

Therefore, I would be happy to see them offer Ross a 2 year/$14 million deal with a team option for 2015 at another $7 million (or a buyout), and maybe toss in some performance escalators.

That's fair, right?

#24 Skiponzo

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Posted 25 August 2012 - 11:35 PM

I'd go 2/18 but outside of that good luck and thanks for 2012.

#25 rembrat


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Posted 25 August 2012 - 11:37 PM

Does anyone else think he is starting to break down as an everyday player? He seems to always be leaving games with some kind of aliment. It might not be wise to lock him into any kinda of multi year...

#26 Yaz4Ever


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Posted 25 August 2012 - 11:47 PM

I wish there was a way to get him to the Giants. At this point, Ben might be able to get Cain for him :)

#27 dynomite

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Posted 25 August 2012 - 11:49 PM

Does anyone else think he is starting to break down as an everyday player? He seems to always be leaving games with some kind of aliment.


Really? Can you think of any specific examples? I admit I haven't watched every game recently, but he has an .843 OPS in August and has played in almost every game this month.

#28 rembrat


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Posted 26 August 2012 - 12:15 AM

Really? Can you think of any specific examples? I admit I haven't watched every game recently, but he has an .843 OPS in August and has played in almost every game this month.


Twisted ankle - July 3rd
Fractured foot - May 18th
Knee soreness - April 26th

And he left the game today with a twisted knee.

#29 dynomite

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 12:22 AM

Twisted ankle - July 3rd
Fractured foot - May 18th
Knee soreness - April 26th

And he left the game today with a twisted knee.


Hmm. Health is definitely a concern for 31-year-old outfielders, and that's a lot of dings and scrapes.

Overall, though, he's still almost at 400 ABs of .854 OPS in 2012, and the fractured foot and twisted knee seem more like freak injuries than age related, right? If anything, they could help reduce the AAV of his extension...

Edited by dynomite, 26 August 2012 - 12:37 AM.


#30 JimBoSox9


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Posted 26 August 2012 - 01:13 AM

I don't think the JimBoSox9 of a year ago would have said this, but...is there not something to be said for a good dude who doesn't mind being spotted in marchips? He can hit anyone decently in Fenway, kills lefties in any park, plays anywhere in the outfield without being embarrassing. From a strict stats perspective 3/21 would be an overpay, let alone 3/27, but fuck it. Pay him something in that range and deal with his decline if needed by playing him when he can succeed.

#31 941827

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 01:24 AM

I don't think the JimBoSox9 of a year ago would have said this, but...is there not something to be said for a good dude who doesn't mind being spotted in marchips? He can hit anyone decently in Fenway, kills lefties in any park, plays anywhere in the outfield without being embarrassing. From a strict stats perspective 3/21 would be an overpay, let alone 3/27, but fuck it. Pay him something in that range and deal with his decline if needed by playing him when he can succeed.


I desperately hope that the Sox are returning to the "I have a price I'm willing to pay, and I'm not exceeding that price" days where they'd rather lose out on a guy than overpay him. The "but fuck it" approach is how you get into the situation from which they just extracted themselves.

#32 JimBoSox9


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Posted 26 August 2012 - 01:27 AM

I desperately hope that the Sox are returning to the "I have a price I'm willing to pay, and I'm not exceeding that price" days where they'd rather lose out on a guy than overpay him. The "but fuck it" approach is how you get into the situation from which they just extracted themselves.


Yes and no. I agree that, as a general policy, saying "fuck it" and overpaying on a per-WAR basis for good dudes isn't the best idea. But, for a team that has the financial resources of the Red Sox, you don't get in trouble saying "fuck it" over $25-$30 million dollar contracts, you get in trouble with the $60 and $120 million ones.

#33 Drek717

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 06:03 AM

I desperately hope that the Sox are returning to the "I have a price I'm willing to pay, and I'm not exceeding that price" days where they'd rather lose out on a guy than overpay him. The "but fuck it" approach is how you get into the situation from which they just extracted themselves.

The Sox problem wasn't overpaying in dollars, it was overpaying in years.

This team is rich enough to overpay a guy like Ross for two or three years knowing that they'll have Kalish, Bradley, and Brentz in the OF at that time making pennies on pre-arb deals. The problem we just had to get out of was giving long term deals to guys too far into their peak years.

They can stick to their price tag on Ross, but I sure hope that price tag acknowledges that any OF with Kalish and Ellsbury as starters sure could use a right handed bat with some power. Also, since it's Ellsbury and Kalish we're talking about here this #4 OF should also be ready to start for prolonged stretches.

#34 BosRedSox5


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Posted 26 August 2012 - 06:44 AM

The Sox problem wasn't overpaying in dollars, it was overpaying in years.

This team is rich enough to overpay a guy like Ross for two or three years knowing that they'll have Kalish, Bradley, and Brentz in the OF at that time making pennies on pre-arb deals. The problem we just had to get out of was giving long term deals to guys too far into their peak years.


Agreed. I was initially very skeptical of signing Ross to be a starting RF because of overpaying in dollars. Now that the OF is opened up, I don't see a reason not to try and get him for 2-3 years and maybe an option for year #3. Considering the free agent class (Michael Bourn, Torii Hunter, Melky Cabrerra...) the outfield has a chance to be very weak. Maybe the team will make another play for Justin Upton but even so, Ross would be fine as a short term LF, as well as being insurance should Ellsbury leave.

#35 Toe Nash

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Posted 26 August 2012 - 08:51 AM

Yes and no. I agree that, as a general policy, saying "fuck it" and overpaying on a per-WAR basis for good dudes isn't the best idea. But, for a team that has the financial resources of the Red Sox, you don't get in trouble saying "fuck it" over $25-$30 million dollar contracts, you get in trouble with the $60 and $120 million ones.

But again if you're locking up only slightly above average guys then you lose flexibility when the opportunity to acquire a star or play a prospect comes along. Can Ross be part of a championship team? Of course. Is he going to be a major piece? No. He has a .699 OPS on the road.

If they are really committed to building through pre-arb players then potentially blocking Kalish, Bradley, or Brentz is a step in the wrong direction.

#36 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 28 August 2012 - 04:32 PM

They aren't going to give Cody Ross 7-9M per to only start against lefties.

#37 Savin Hillbilly


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Posted 28 August 2012 - 05:00 PM

They aren't going to give Cody Ross 7-9M per to only start against lefties.


I don't think there's any need to start him only against lefties. His career OPS in games started by RHP is .748. Same number for 2012 is .734. These aren't real good numbers, but they're not black-hole numbers, either. Just slightly below average (AL average OPS for RFs this year was .757). I think EV or somebody said this already, in this thread or the Ross thread, but the rational response to what we've seen from Ross this year would be to start him against everybody at Fenway and sit him down against most RHP on the road. That means he gets, say, 500 PA including PH appearances, with probably an .850 or better overall OPS, and that's worth $7M. Keep Nava as your 4th OF, and he can take the extra 50 starts and pinch-hit against tougher RHP.

It's certainly not our only option, but it would work.

#38 maufman


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Posted 28 August 2012 - 07:30 PM

Do people think we should throw 3/24 at Ross, or do people just think I'm vastly overstating his value?

Between his past WS heroics, his big season in a ballpark tailor-made for his swing, and his ability to play CF (badly) in a pinch, Ross strikes me as a guy who is very likely to get an irrationally large offer from someone. I hope I'm wrong, because I'd like to see him stick around, but not for the kind of coin I expect he'll be offered elsewhere.

#39 Sprowl


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Posted 29 August 2012 - 12:21 AM

Do people think we should throw 3/24 at Ross, or do people just think I'm vastly overstating his value?

Between his past WS heroics, his big season in a ballpark tailor-made for his swing, and his ability to play CF (badly) in a pinch, Ross strikes me as a guy who is very likely to get an irrationally large offer from someone. I hope I'm wrong, because I'd like to see him stick around, but not for the kind of coin I expect he'll be offered elsewhere.


I think that's overvaluing Ross, who is unlikely to receive that kind of offer elsewhere. He's worth an offer, but I'm thinking it'll be something closer to Scutaro's deal -- 2 years @6m, with options for the third year (2m player option, 4m team option).

If Ross does get an offer for 3/24, I sincerely hope that the Red Sox won't match it, and will look instead to sign a RHB OF for make-good money like Ross's 1/3 deal for 2012.

#40 twothousandone

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Posted 29 August 2012 - 10:16 AM

If Ross does get an offer for 3/24, I sincerely hope that the Red Sox won't match it, and will look instead to sign a RHB OF for make-good money like Ross's 1/3 deal for 2012.

Which will, of course, lead to a vibrant discussion on when they should match/exceed a FA offer, and when they shoudln't. Recent history suggests NEVER -- even Gonzalez seemed to agree to a below market-value contract while they were playing with the timing of his extension in 2011. The Dodgers eagerness helps confirm that it is below market.

Crawford, and Lackey, certainly, Cameron, Jenks, a few others, were cases where the Sox paid what that market demanded they pay to get their guy. (They, of course, used those rates to pay Beckett, and sort of used the market to pay Ortiz, and even Lowell, who effectively gave Boston a discount.) The "bargains" recently have come from situations where the Sox have leverage and/or get creative -- Beltre, Gonzalez (though much of that was Gonzalez himself), you might include Andrew Miller. Pedroia/Lester/Youkilis were all cases when the Sox used thier leverage before the player gained leverage.

I hope one of the lessons of the last few years ISN'T that they can't pay up for guys they need. Scutaro is an example, some would say Drew, perhaps even Varitek in his last few years. If Ross is offered a guaranteed $14 million for two years (as Sprowl kind of suggests) by the Mets, do the Sox go to 2 years at $7 million each with a $1 million buy-out and a $7 million option -- assuming that's then what it takes? Or maybe $18 million for three, with a $2 million buyout and a $6 million option for year four?

I am very curious how they will try to apply "discipline" in the face of "the market." After all. flexibility is supposed to provide the ability to overpay to get what the team really needs. Ho they approach Loney may be the first indication.

#41 MoGator71


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Posted 29 August 2012 - 02:11 PM

The wild card with Ross is some GM/club pursuing him as a CF and overpaying him because of it. He may be worth 3/24 to somebody as a CF but that's an overpay for a corner OF.

Also, based on the discussion in the Doubront thread should be be including Mauer in the discussion?

#42 Savin Hillbilly


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Posted 29 August 2012 - 02:20 PM

I really can't see why anyone would pencil Ross in as a CF. Judging both by his historical numbers and what we saw of him this year, he doesn't have the range (he's borderline even for Fenway's RF) or the instincts for that gig. He's a solid RF with an OK arm, but when you put him in CF the Peter Principle starts to come into play.

Of course, that doesn't mean somebody won't try it.

#43 Eric Van


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Posted 29 August 2012 - 04:11 PM

Do people think we should throw 3/24 at Ross, or do people just think I'm vastly overstating his value?

Between his past WS heroics, his big season in a ballpark tailor-made for his swing, and his ability to play CF (badly) in a pinch, Ross strikes me as a guy who is very likely to get an irrationally large offer from someone. I hope I'm wrong, because I'd like to see him stick around, but not for the kind of coin I expect he'll be offered elsewhere.


I think this would be a danger thirty years ago. Do you think there's even one GM unaware of these numbers?

Home: .316 / .371 / .617
Away: .233 / .305 / .393

And it's not like this is puzzling. In fact, even a sabermetrically obtuse GM, one who would need to be told to look this up (not that I think one exists) would guess this was the case based on having watched Ross hit.

I think it's likelier that Ross has almost no interest from anyone else, because they all understand he's worth far more to us than anyone else, than someone pays him to put up his 2012 line in some other ballpark. (Meant literally: I'm not saying the former is likely, but I could see it happening. I can't see the latter happening.)

His road numbers this year were down a bit from last year. His overall SA the previous four years went .488, .469, .413, .405, and there's no reason to think that trend hasn't actually continued if you factor Fenway out. So he doesn't seem to have any more value to another team than he did a year ago, yet we can afford to give him a bit of a raise to insure that we don't get outbid, and still get our money's worth. It should be an easy and affordable re-signing, maybe 2/9.

And we're the only club that will start him more than 50-55 games, so Rudy's concern that it'll be hard to sell him the plan where he plays full time at Fenway and platoons on the road is, I think, unwarranted. He seems to have hit something like .203 / .281 / .310 vs RHP on the road*, so all you really have to do to make him OK with not playing those games is point that out to him. He seems to be a good guy and good teammate and I doubt he'll mind helping the team win while getting his rate stats boosted at the same time.

* I will try to get home and road splits by handedness of opposing starter at some point soon.

Edited by Eric Van, 29 August 2012 - 04:13 PM.


#44 Manramsclan

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Posted 30 August 2012 - 05:06 PM

Does this board really consider 3/24 an overpay for Cody Ross as a FA?

Fangraphs WAR right now has him at 2.8. At $4.5 Million per marginal win that would be $12.6 Million per year.

I'm not saying that the Red Sox would or should pay that, or that another team would, but $8 Million per year seems to be anything but an overpay on the free agent market for Ross. That deal seems reasonable on a yearly salary basis. It would be the third year that I'd be worried about but $8 Million isn't going to break this team's budget, especially now.

I would be ok for that deal for Cody. The Sox need a RHH bat, and they can stick him in LF.

#45 Rasputin


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Posted 30 August 2012 - 06:38 PM

Does this board really consider 3/24 an overpay for Cody Ross as a FA?


You want to pay eight million dollars to a guy who should only be starting against lefties, because that's what Ross is.

#46 Savin Hillbilly


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Posted 30 August 2012 - 07:12 PM

Once again, Ross is not that bad against righties. His offense vs. RHP, both this year and for his career, is essentially league average for a RF (AL average RF: .262/.325/.430; Ross vs. RHP: .259/.317/.435 for 2012, .254/.313/.417 career).

It's certainly not a strength, but saying he should "only be starting against lefties" is overstating the case considerably. Obviously if we had a defensively competent righty-masher to platoon him with (and a guy who's better than either of them for the other corner OF slot), then we might want to platoon him. But there's no necessity for it.

Edited by Savin Hillbilly, 30 August 2012 - 07:13 PM.


#47 OCD SS


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Posted 31 August 2012 - 05:37 AM

... unless the Sox want to aspire to something more than "league average" for what would likely be a majority of his PAs at the contract numbers suggested.

#48 Savin Hillbilly


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Posted 31 August 2012 - 07:25 AM

... unless the Sox want to aspire to something more than "league average" for what would likely be a majority of his PAs at the contract numbers suggested.


Sure, they can aspire to more than that, but they'll probably have to spend more than $7M for it, unless it's cost-controlled, in which case they'll have to pay through the nose in talent for it. Of course, if we had cost-controlled, average-or-better options at the corner OF spots already in hand, then signing Ross would be silly. But I don't see that we do.

(BTW, do the scare quotes mean that you don't think Ross is really league average vs. RHP, or that you're deprecating the value of league average performance?)

#49 OCD SS


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Posted 31 August 2012 - 08:31 AM

(BTW, do the scare quotes mean that you don't think Ross is really league average vs. RHP, or that you're deprecating the value of league average performance?)


a bit of both actually. League Average includes a good deal of innings from non-starters, so the line for players penciled in as starters is a bit better than that. I imagine (because I'm not sure where I'd find such a split) when you compare Ross as a starter, his average and OBP numbers look worse, and then you're relying on the bump Fenway is going to give his slugging to turn him in 'league average.' When you add in that he would be signed for post-30 age seasons and the decline that comes with it, I think the numbers are less Rosy.

I like Ross if he's being paid like the short side of a platoon, but I don't think the payroll numbers usually tossed around here reflect that. It depends on if the Sox FO/ Ownership is looking at next year as a bridge year or a year to reload and be competitive (only the off-season will tell for sure), but I think "league average" is being thrown around as a standard the Sox can aspire to in their acquisitions, which looks like a sign that they would not be competitive.

As the saying goes, what kills you is the high price of mediocrity. Clearing a quarter billion in payroll commitments doesn't change that.

#50 Savin Hillbilly


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Posted 31 August 2012 - 09:07 AM

a bit of both actually. League Average includes a good deal of innings from non-starters, so the line for players penciled in as starters is a bit better than that.


Not that many, actually. The ratio of PA for starters vs. subs in MLB this year was a little over 20:1, and almost twice that (37:1) in the AL. I don't think this is a factor we need to worry about in making these kinds of comparisons.

When you add in that he would be signed for post-30 age seasons and the decline that comes with it, I think the numbers are less Rosy.


But this is already factored into the price, really. Look at the season Ross just had. If he were a young free agent--say, 28--would anybody hesitate to offer him, say, 3/$22M? Wouldn't we be jumping up and down to make that deal? The fact that we know he's probably not getting better, and may get worse, is what makes that price tag reasonable and not a steal.

I like Ross if he's being paid like the short side of a platoon, but I don't think the payroll numbers usually tossed around here reflect that.


Actually, they might. Imagine for a moment that we trade for Choo, who's going into his third arbitration year and will probably command $8M or so. Now say that we're platooning Choo and Ross; it'll cost us $15M. "Outrageous!" everyone here will cry. Yeah, but if you add up Ross' line vs. LHP and Choo's line vs. RHP from this past year, you basically get Ellsbury 2011 with half the steals. You get an MVP candidate kind of player. Now how much would you pay? :c070:

It depends on if the Sox FO/ Ownership is looking at next year as a bridge year or a year to reload and be competitive (only the off-season will tell for sure), but I think "league average" is being thrown around as a standard the Sox can aspire to in their acquisitions, which looks like a sign that they would not be competitive.


Not a standard they can aspire to, but a baseline they can be comfortable with. You can't win with a lineup full of average players, but you can -- and often do -- win with a lineup that has as many average players as outstanding ones. The 2001 Mariners, who won 116 games, were average or worse at every position but 2B, CF, RF and DH.

As the saying goes, what kills you is the high price of mediocrity.


But Ross, while no All-Star, is better than mediocre (at least when he gets to play half his games in Fenway). Remember, we've been discussing whether he's league-average or not vs. RHP -- i.e., about 70% of the time. The other 30% of the time he's an excellent, .900-ish hitter. Look at his overall line from this year, and keep in mind that he has had completely normal PA platoon splits--he hasn't been kept away from RHP at all. (In fact, his percentage of PA vs. RHP is infinitesimally above the AL average--70.5% vs. 69.5%.)

Edited by Savin Hillbilly, 31 August 2012 - 09:08 AM.