30 replies to this topic

[Lose Remerswaal]

3 games with Pawtucket (after 2 in the GCL and one in Portland), 3.1 innings with 1 hit and 4 K's (no BB). The Portland appearance (1 inning, 3 hits, 1 run, 2 Ks) was his only messy appearance.

Off day for the BoSox today, why not bring him up for the Baltimore series and see what he can do?

[czar]

He will be up, per Alex Speier this morning.

Andrew Bailey crossed another item off his rehab checklist, pitching 1 1/3 innings and retiring all four batters he faced, one on a strikeout. In three appearances in Triple-A, he’s allowed just one baserunner (on an opposite-field single) and no runs while striking out four. In six total rehab appearances, he’s given up one run in 6 1/3 innings with 10 strikeouts, one walk and six hits allowed. Barring a setback, the Red Sox expect to activate him from the DL on Tuesday in Baltimore.

[Lose Remerswaal]

Damn right.

Last article I had read (Globe) I think suggested he was having one more AAA outing and then up for the Yankees. Glad to see no delay!

[mauidano]

About time. Corresponding move?

[Red(s)HawksFan]

About time. Corresponding move?

Mortensen to Pawtucket, Atchison to the 60-day DL?

Probably won't make the call until tomorrow regardless of what they do.

[Manramsclan]

What's the consensus here?

Do the Sox throw him right into the fire in a high leverage situation?

Or

Do they give him a low-lev outing to acclimate?

I vote for the former not the latter.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

I also vote for throwing him right into the fire. The guy is a "closer." Once you've done the job for a significant amount of time, you don't need to be mentally re-acclimated. He's either ready to go, or he's not. If he needs more time to round into form, leave him in AAA. But if he's back to his old self, hand him the job for which you acquired him and start using Aceves like the all-purpose, keep-you-in-the-game rubber arm he was born to be.

[sachilles]

I don't know that there will be a ton of choice, since the team has been so variable lately. They'll need to have him in the action regardless of leverage. Sink or swim.

[Lose Remerswaal]

Exactly. He pitches tomorrorow. Save him for the 9th inning if there's a save situation, put him in in the 8th if it doesn't look like a save situation is coming in.

Only way he doesn't pitch is if the starter has a shutout going and a low pitch count.

[Captaincoop]

The buzz (such that there is any) seems to be that Aceves is going to retain the closer job. I'm assuming that's just BS that the Sox are putting out there to keep Aceves mentally checked in until Bailey is actually on board to take his role?

[Cellar-Door]

The buzz (such that there is any) seems to be that Aceves is going to retain the closer job. I'm assuming that's just BS that the Sox are putting out there to keep Aceves mentally checked in until Bailey is actually on board to take his role?

Or in an attempt to boost his value so they can move him under the guise of "proven closer" this offseason.

[SydneySox]

I agree he should be closing.

How do you think Aceves will take it?

[Rudy Pemberton]

Aceves has been closing all year, Bailey hasn't pitched, at all. Team is not really in contention. Why announce a change in closer before Bailey throws an inning; who does that serve? Bailey's already said he doesn't care. I think you have to at least let him get a few appearances under his belt before even thinking about making a change, but ultimately its a move that doesn't need to be made until the offseason.

There's also the potential of Aceves murdering someone if he's removed from his role.

[Sprowl]

With Papelbon gone, Bard demoted, and Aceves no more than serviceable, Bailey should be the relief ace. Bobby the Fifth should summon Bailey for the highest-leverage situations, whenever they occur. Aceves can keep the closer's job, which is not as important.

[Plympton91]

With Papelbon gone, Bard demoted, and Aceves no more than serviceable, Bailey should be the relief ace. Bobby the Fifth should summon Bailey for the highest-leverage situations, whenever they occur. Aceves can keep the closer's job, which is not as important.

Yeah, especially if Bailey said he doesn't care, this makes a lot of sense. Unfortunately though, I wouldn't imagine they want to be using Bailey across multiple innings very often. That sort of limits his ability to get the last e outs of the 7th and pitch the whole 8th. But, maybe one can be content just letting him put out the fire and then hand a clean inning to someone.

[SydneySox]

I guess it's about next year. Bailey's saying the right things about not caring though as you point out that's probably more because Aceves knows where he lives than anything else.

I can see both sides of the coin when it comes to wasted season - do you throw him out there now so you know you've got the closer you need for 2013? Or do you ease him in?

I guess I fall on the side of throw him out there now.

[Plympton91]

I don't think anything Bailey does on the field over the final 7 weeks is going to be more useful in determining his 2013 role than his career to date.

Unlike the defeatists who can't handle a little adversity, I also am not yet ready to concede the season as lost. It is still the case that less talented groups have made up larger deficits.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I don't think anything Bailey does on the field over the final 7 weeks is going to be more useful in determining his 2013 role than his career to date.

Unlike the defeatists who can't handle a little adversity, I also am not yet ready to concede the season as lost. It is still the case that less talented groups have made up larger deficits.

Oh God, get over yourself. This is not the place for a referendum on your level of fandom.

Christ.

Now, I actually agree with your post above about how he should be used considering he's likely to be their best reliever at this point. Somehow though I suspect he'll be used as a straight setup guy instead.

[RedOctober3829]

Oh God, get over yourself. This is not the place for a referendum on your level of fandom.

Christ.

Now, I actually agree with your post above about how he should be used considering he's likely to be their best reliever at this point. Somehow though I suspect he'll be used as a straight setup guy instead.

Don't worry about P91. His ancestors were the ones on the Titanic wondering how the ship could possibly sink as it plummeted deep into the Atlantic.

[Captaincoop]

I see the point about using him in a setup or relief ace role, but he was signed to be the team's closer. I'd like to see for a month-plus how he handles closing for the Sox. Presumably Aceves does not have a future as closer here; and as far as his trade value, he has done more than enough to show other clubs what he can do in that role.

[gammoseditor]

With Papelbon gone, Bard demoted, and Aceves no more than serviceable, Bailey should be the relief ace. Bobby the Fifth should summon Bailey for the highest-leverage situations, whenever they occur. Aceves can keep the closer's job, which is not as important.

The problem is that there is significant overlap with the closers job and the relief aces job. People like to refer to Bards job the last couple of years as the relief ace, but I don't see how his job was any different than a traditional setup guy.

[JMDurron]

I see the point about using him in a setup or relief ace role, but he was signed to be the team's closer. I'd like to see for a month-plus how he handles closing for the Sox. Presumably Aceves does not have a future as closer here; and as far as his trade value, he has done more than enough to show other clubs what he can do in that role.

I realize that the trade looks so horrifically bad right now that the bolded is likely your psyche's way of protecting itself from further damage, but Andrew Bailey is not Jay Payton.

[Captaincoop]

I realize that the trade looks so horrifically bad right now that the bolded is likely your psyche's way of protecting itself from further damage, but Andrew Bailey is not Jay Payton.

Sorry - "acquired" to be the team's closer. The fact that we apparently gave up a 35 HR outfielder to acquire him underscores further why he shouldn't be a setup man for long.

[yecul]

Oh God, get over yourself. This is not the place for a referendum on your level of fandom.

Christ.

Now, I actually agree with your post above about how he should be used considering he's likely to be their best reliever at this point. Somehow though I suspect he'll be used as a straight setup guy instead.

He's trolling. In the past week or two he's said how the season is over and other such platitudes.

He wants a reaction and usually gets it.

[maufman]

The problem is that there is significant overlap with the closers job and the relief aces job. People like to refer to Bards job the last couple of years as the relief ace, but I don't see how his job was any different than a traditional setup guy.

Having a Jamesian relief ace works best on paper, but rightly or not, most managers think RPs need somewhat defined roles. If you buy into that, the numbers suggest that having your best reliever in the set-up role (i.e., 8th inning, and occasional high-lev 7th inning) is the next best option.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

The problem is that there is significant overlap with the closers job and the relief aces job. People like to refer to Bards job the last couple of years as the relief ace, but I don't see how his job was any different than a traditional setup guy.

Bard was closer to the definition of a Jamesian relief ace simply because he was not the closer. The Red Sox had a great luxury in that they really had two relief aces in their bullpen, which allowed them to get much closer in practice to the idea of a true Jamesian relief ace without at all breaking from the "traditional" set-up and closer roles.

[gammoseditor]

Bard was closer to the definition of a Jamesian relief ace simply because he was not the closer. The Red Sox had a great luxury in that they really had two relief aces in their bullpen, which allowed them to get much closer in practice to the idea of a true Jamesian relief ace without at all breaking from the "traditional" set-up and closer roles.

I don't really agree. In the Bill James definition of a relief ace your best reliever pitches in the 9th inning up by 1. With the Bard/Papelbon setup, we had two great relievers, and some years the closer pitched higher leverage innings and some years the set up guy did. But Bard was not a jamesian relief ace. He was a setup guy by every definition.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I don't really agree. In the Bill James definition of a relief ace your best reliever pitches in the 9th inning up by 1. With the Bard/Papelbon setup, we had two great relievers, and some years the closer pitched higher leverage innings and some years the set up guy did. But Bard was not a jamesian relief ace. He was a setup guy by every definition.

The James definition of a relief ace is your best reliever pitches your highest leverage situations regardless of inning. He once wrote in Baseball Prospectus that it is "far better to use your relief ace when the score is tied, even if that is the seventh inning, than in the ninth inning with a lead of two or more runs."

The idea of your "best" reliever pitching the ninth up by one is more like the LaRussa relief ace, and is the model by which teams generally operate. With two guys that can be called relief aces, it allowed the Red Sox to straddle the line a bit and deploy the bullpen in ways that were arguably Jamesian. Francona was able to go to Bard in high leverages situations in the 7th and 8th innings and still had Papelbon lurking as both a traditional closer (for the 9th) and a potential Jamesian ace able to come out for the 8th inning if a situation called for it.

[gammoseditor]

The James definition of a relief ace is your best reliever pitches your highest leverage situations regardless of inning. He once wrote in Baseball Prospectus that it is "far better to use your relief ace when the score is tied, even if that is the seventh inning, than in the ninth inning with a lead of two or more runs."

The idea of your "best" reliever pitching the ninth up by one is more like the LaRussa relief ace, and is the model by which teams generally operate. With two guys that can be called relief aces, it allowed the Red Sox to straddle the line a bit and deploy the bullpen in ways that were arguably Jamesian. Francona was able to go to Bard in high leverages situations in the 7th and 8th innings and still had Papelbon lurking as both a traditional closer (for the 9th) and a potential Jamesian ace able to come out for the 8th inning if a situation called for it.

Except the 9th inning up by one is the higher leveraged situation. In the Jamesian relief ace model the relief ace is sometimes pitching in save situations. He's clearly not pitching the 9th up 3 runs, but he's certainly pitching the 9th up 1 run. I agree that the Red Sox got around the idea by having two relief aces, but there seems to be an assumption that Bard pitched the higher leverage innings which is just wrong. While it's close, you can look at 2010-2011 or 2009-2011 and Papelbon's average leverage index was higher.

http://www.fangraphs...lter=&players=0

[CaptainLaddie]

He's trolling. In the past week or two he's said how the season is over and other such platitudes.

He wants a reaction and usually gets it.

He should be banned, then. Well, banned again. Last I checked, trolling wasn't allowed on this site.

Edited by CaptainLaddie, 14 August 2012 - 03:14 PM.

[Plympton91]

You two combined add less content to serious forums in a year than I add in an average day. Posting "I hate DH3" four times a week isn't useful. Get over yourselves.

If you want to give up in mid-August, feel free. The 2007 Colorado Rockies weren't exactly the '27 Yankees and didn't have a rotation of 5 aces, but they managed to somehow win 19 games in a row.

Now, as for Bailey's performance tonight. Given the lack of command, which corroborates the reporting from the Pawtucket beat, I think I retract my earlier musing about installing him as the relief ace. He needs to stay in low leverage situations for a while longer. It wouldn't be unreasonable if he needs the rest of the month to simulate a full spring training before he'd be ready to assume the relief ace role, but hopefully it'll be more like 1 week than 2 weeks.

Edited by Plympton91, 15 August 2012 - 12:00 AM.