180 replies to this topic

[TomRicardo]

This trade deadline was completely botched by Cherington. Whether he had orders from above or is completely delusional, I am not sure. However he was not quick enough, intelligent enough, creative enough, and/or had enough power to start turning around the sinking ship. Clearly something has to change there.

Right now there is dead money. The team as presently constructed can't compete. Hard decision need to be made. What would you do?

[Yaz4Ever]

Assuming by this that Ben has already been fired for purposes of this exercise, otherwise that is step one.

Put Bobby V on a short leash after allowing him to hire his own coaching staff. If that doesn't do the trick, he's gone.

Sign Papi to a contract that brings him to retirement. May have to overpay a little at this point in his career, but he's proven worthy, imho.

Try to lock up Ellsbury long-term.

Float Crawford to see what offers come back, but no urgency in moving him.

Trade Beckett and possibly Lester. See if Bard is worth anything on the market. Try to get someone to assume Punto's remaining contract and move Shoppach.

Put an emphasis on restocking the minor league system through trades of Beckett et als.

[Hokie Sox]

Put an emphasis on restocking the minor league system through trades of Beckett et als.

I'd ask Henry for one bullet so I could retire from this mess.

[SoxScout]

1. Beckett and Lackey can not return to the team in 2013, whatever needs to be done to make that happen, do it.

2. Best package for Ellsbury gets him unless he agree to Adam Jones' deal. I doubt that will happen, so he is gone.

3. Offer Ortiz a raise for 1 season, if he rejects, offer him the "arbitration" deal. If he signs for less out of spite, so be it.

4. Presume Iglesias is your SS. It's time to see what he can do, batting last, his offense won't make or break a season.

5. Let Linares have the last reserve OF spot and let him play against LHP. Lavarnway and Salty are the catchers. If Ortiz is gone Lavarnway could get a lot of those ABs.

6. Someone like Alomar or Pena hired as manager.

And John Henry has to fucking shut off Larry's shit even though he loves the guy and gave him a contract extension this year.. Clubhouse issues go to the manager, contract shit Cherrington, Larry is either gone or decides what color to paint rooms.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Get my resume up-to-date.

[JakeRae]

Fire Valentine and McClure. Promote Bogar because the coaching staff needs some consistency and they aren't gonna lure a good manager this offseason anyway. Let Bogar control the other coaching staff decisions.

Shop Salty and Ellsbury. Neither one is someone that must be traded but I want to see what is out there for both. If I can get a Adrian Gonzalez type package for Ellsbury, I'd jump at that and give Kalish, Bradley, Linares, and Lin a chance to compete for the starting job during Spring Training. For Salty, the return doesn't need to be spectacular, but it would need to be pretty good as I assume we'd extend him a qualifying offer if he is retained.

Give Ortiz a qualifying offer a 2/20. Let him know that we will match if someone is willing to pay him more than that and that I want nothing more than for him to finish his career in Boston but that I'm not going to bid against myself for his services.

Shop Beckett, realize that no one wants him, and keep him.

Re-sign Ross is he'll take a discount to stay or go out and find a RF who will sign short term.

Shop Aviles and, if he has value, trade him, promote Iglesias, and accept the lack of offense from the position.

Rotation (it is what it is):

Beckett
Lester
Buchholz
Lackey
Doubront
Morales

Bullpen:

Bailey
Bard
Hill
Miller
Breslow
Melancon
Aceves
(Morales is here if the rotation is healthy)
Mortensen (AAA)
Tazawa (AAA)
Carpenter (AAA)

Lineup:

C: Salty/Lavarnway or Lavarnway/Veteran backup depending on the offers I get for Salty
1B: Gonzalez
2B: Pedroia
SS: Iglesias, Punto (backs up all infield positions)
3B: Middlebrooks
RF: Ross(replacement)/Sweeney(Kalish if Bradley or Linares takes over CF. Linares is a candidate for the Ross replacement.)
CF: Kalish/Bradley/Linares (This would pretty much be a manager decision in the Spring. Kalish makes the team either way.)
LF: Crawford (DL to start), Nava/(Hassan or Linares)

There really isn't much of a way to get rid of the established veteran core and I'm not trading guys like Beckett for pennies on the dollar. But, it's time to change the tone and the infusion of youth around the core will hopefully help turn things around. Hopefully, trading Ellsbury, Salty, and Aviles gets the message across that veteran jobs are no longer safe and those are the guys who will have real trade value this offseason.

Promoting Bogar is a move toward establishing organizational stability and a nod to the fact that the Tito way was the right way. Giving him control (or heavy input) into coaching decisions will show organizational support for him. I don't think the roster I've shown above is necessarily a playoff team, but it will inject youth and athleticism on the position player side and there really are no options in the rotation other than hoping that the guys we have can be who we thought they were.

From a promoting prospects standpoint, I'm being very aggressive with Iglesias and Bradley, but Linares, Kalish, and Lavarnway are ready to contribute at the MLB level and I'm not spending anymore on long term contracts for this team until the guys that have them show they care about winning again or are gone.

[Rasputin]

The team as presently constructed can't compete.

This statement is fundamentally incorrect unless you believe Lester, Pedroia, and Gonzalez all just suddenly forgot how to play baseball and will never remember how to again.

What I do is this.

Get rid of Valentine. He's an ass and a bad manager.

Bring back Papi on a two year deal. Maybe I go three but I'd really rather not.

I plan on having Kalish in right but I'd like to have a relatively cheap free agent Plan B.

I try to trade Beckett. I'm not willing to just dump his salary but if anyone is willing to give up some real value I'm game.

Going into the season with Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, Lackey, Doubront in the rotation would be far from a terrible thing. Going in with Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Doubront and whichever of Tazawa, Carpenter, Morales, and whatever veteran retreads are brought in wouldn't be terrible either.

I look to trade Salty. He has value at a hard spot to get value out of but I think Lavarnway will get on base more.

Overall, I want to re-emphasize OBP.

I'd like to find a better option at short but I'm not sure there are any, at least any that are available.

[RedOctober3829]

1. Fire the whole coaching staff from top to bottom. Get people in here that are my guys and that no one in the clubhouse has any allegiances to. Let the manager hire all of his own coaches.
2. Put Ellsbury up for the highest bid. I would be looking for top pitching prospects that are closer to major league ready than our current ones in the system to build some quality upper-level depth.
3. Sign Ortiz for 2 years as stated by many. He's important to this team, obviously.
4. Find a stopgap CF(in or out of house) for next year so that Bradley could spend another year in the minors
5. Trade Beckett. See if a National League team would take him off our hands.
6. Re-sign Ross and platoon again with Sweeney.
7. Shop both Salty and Lavarnway and trade whoever gets you the most value back. Then, sign a cheap backup vet.

Edited by RedOctober3829, 08 August 2012 - 07:47 PM.

[Kramerica Industries]

3. Sign Ortiz for 2 years as stated by many. He's important to this team, obviously.

7. Shop both Salty and Lavarnway and sign Miguel Montero long-term. Trade one of the two catchers and the other one is the backup.

Miguel Montero signed long term with arizona. Can we still trade Bowden for him?

http://m.espn.go.com...storyId=7975824

Honest question, Does the new "interleague" schedule next season change how the red sox can value Ortiz? More games in NL parks has to change the equation, right?

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Honest question, Does the new "interleague" schedule next season change how the red sox can value Ortiz? More games in NL parks has to change the equation, right?

There are no more games in NL parks next year than there were this year. Interleague will occur all year long, but each team won't be playing any more interleague games than in the past (a max of 20). So the impact on the value of a David Ortiz is minimal.

As for the thread question, I'm good with Ras's plan and would add that I would re-sign Ross to be that veteran Plan B in RF. At the least, it would start as a platoon until one or the other, hopefully Kalish, earns the full time gig.

Edited by Red(s)HawksFan, 08 August 2012 - 06:33 PM.

[maufman]

I'm assuming that staying under the tax threshold in 2013 is a must, but that there might be flexibility to go over in 2014. I also assume that that I have final say on baseball operations, sellout streak be damned.

-- Trade Beckett. He won't fetch much, but I think someone would agree to absorb the last two years of his contract.

-- Trade Salty. If bad D behind the dish is a given, I'd rather pay league minimum to Lavarnway and pick up a prospect or two for Salty. There should be a couple good catchers on the FA market in 2014 (with Brian McCann leading the way), so overpaying for a FA solution is an option down the road if Lavarnway can't hack it defensively.

-- Trade Nava. Won't be an earth-shaking return, but Crawford isn't going anywhere, and Nava's D isn't adequate for RF in Fenway on more than a stopgap basis.

-- Let Ross leave via free agency.

-- Explore trading Ellsbury, but discover he won't command a big enough return. Hold him and hope his value grows with a strong first half in 2013.

-- DFA Punto

-- Check to see if Jake Peavy's price slips. Assuming it doesn't, sign Francisco Liriano to a 2-year deal.

-- Sign Stephen Drew to a 1-year deal and give him every chance to win the starting SS job.

-- Overpay, within reason, to bring back Shoppach on a 1-2 year deal -- gives you an acceptable catcher with good D if Lavarnway flops.

-- Offer Ortiz arbitration and re-sign him to a one-year deal.

-- Grab a RH bat off the scrap heap

-- Bring a few retreads into camp to compete for a spot in the rotation, but it's Morales's job to lose.


Gives you this team:

C -- Lavarnway
1B -- Gonzalez
2B -- Pedroia
3B -- Middlebrooks
SS -- Drew
OF -- Crawford, Ellsbury, Kalish
DH -- Ortiz

Bench -- Shoppach, Aviles, Sweeney, TBD

SP -- Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, Liriano, Lackey (with Morales stepping in if one of the above is hurt, isn't ready, falls apart, etc.)
RP -- Bailey, Aceves, Miller, Morales, Padilla, Melancon, Bard, Hill (one too many, but this will take care of itself)

This team could be good if things broke right, but more likely than not, it's an 80-win team. The goal here is to collect prospects (Ellsbury would either get dealt at the deadline or fetch a pick, and Drew might fetch a pick if he bounces back), clear salary, see what you've got in the young guys, and build a foundation for 2014 and beyond.

Edit: How could I forget John Lackey?? Make him the 5th starter and hope for the best.

Edited by maufman, 09 August 2012 - 06:06 AM.

[Cellar-Door]

1. Offer Ortiz arbitration. Also extend him a reasonable 2 year deal.
2. Shop Ellsbury, trade him if I can find a good package of prospects including at least 1 top prospect who will start AA or above
3. Shop Beckett, when I get no offers for him I'd keep him and hope for odd year Beckett.
4 Clean house on the coaching staff. Bring in a new manager and let him pick his coaches. (Tony Pena, Tim Wallach Pete Mackanin, and Sandy Alomar would be on my list)
5. Lavarnway moves into the backup catcher role.
6. Trade Sweeney for whatever I can get, Kalish takes his role.
7. Make a reasonable offer for Ross to play RF.
8. Shop Nava hard, he has value, but not to a team that already has plenty of guys who hit righties and can't touch lefties
9. Sign a minor league deal pupu platter of pitchers again as we did this year.

[JakeRae]

For those who want to trade Nava, who starts in LF while Crawford is recovering the TJ surgery he is supposedly getting as soon as the season is over?

[Rasputin]

I have two questions for those suggesting we trade Ellsbury.

1) Who plays CF in 2013?
2) Why is trading Ellsbury this offseason better than waiting until the 2013 deadline when Bradley will have had more than a month and a half above A ball?

And remember, the reason trading Ellsbury makes any sense at all is because he's going to get expensive. Trading him and signing a big name free agent makes no sense.

[Yazdog8]

I have two questions for those suggesting we trade Ellsbury.

1) Who plays CF in 2013?
2) Why is trading Ellsbury this offseason better than waiting until the 2013 deadline when Bradley will have had more than a month and a half above A ball?

And remember, the reason trading Ellsbury makes any sense at all is because he's going to get expensive. Trading him and signing a big name free agent makes no sense.

1) Kalish or Sweeney
2) I think trading Ellsbury depends on what kind of return you could get for him. If you can get a better package at the deadline, then you make that move in July. Of course, they could be contending next July, so Ben would more than likely just let him walk and take the supplemental pick. Hopefully Bradley is ready in 2014 and you slot him in then.

[Rasputin]

For those who want to trade Nava, who starts in LF while Crawford is recovering the TJ surgery he is supposedly getting as soon as the season is over?

I'm not sure Nava would bring back anything and I'm not sure Crawford would miss all that much time but how about Bryce Brentz?

[Rasputin]

1) Kalish or Sweeney

Then who plays right? Also the downgrade from Ellsbury to Sweeney is going to be big. If not, Ellsbury has had a crappy remainder of the season and isn't going to bring back much.

2) I think trading Ellsbury depends on what kind of return you could get for him. If you can get a better package at the deadline, then you make that move in July. Of course, they could be contending next July, so Ben would more than likely just let him walk and take the supplemental pick. Hopefully Bradley is ready in 2014 and you slot him in then.

After three years which each challenged the notion that it can't possibly get that bad again, keeping Ellsbury, making the playoffs, and letting him go to make room for Bradley wouldn't be all that bad a thing.

[Captaincoop]

I'm surprised there are still a significant number of posters who think this team will just turn itself around with the same group of guys back in 2013, specifically the same pitching staff.

If I were the GM, step 1 would be getting rid of Josh Beckett at any cost. From the outside (with all the necessary caveats that qualifier entails) he just seems like a black cloud over this team. Step 2 would be tampering with the breaks on John Lackey's car. Step 3, of course, would be "profit."

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Gives you this team:

C -- Lavarnway
1B -- Gonzalez
2B -- Pedroia
3B -- Middlebrooks
SS -- Drew
OF -- Crawford, Ellsbury, Kalish
DH -- Ortiz

Bench -- Shoppach, Aviles, Sweeney, TBD

SP -- Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, Liriano, Morales
RP -- Bailey, Aceves, Miller, Padilla, Melancon, Bard, Hill

Where's Lackey in your scenario? I get that we all think he's a horsefaced douche, but he's still under contract and should be fully recovered from TJS. He's going to be in the mix next season, like it or not. But I guess since the majority of plans so far involve trading/dumping a bunch of others like Beckett, Ellsbury, Salty, etc, one more pennies on the dollar dump job isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Edited by Red(s)HawksFan, 08 August 2012 - 07:23 PM.

[LeoCarrillo]

I have two questions for those suggesting we trade Ellsbury.

1) Who plays CF in 2013?
2) Why is trading Ellsbury this offseason better than waiting until the 2013 deadline when Bradley will have had more than a month and a half above A ball?

And remember, the reason trading Ellsbury makes any sense at all is because he's going to get expensive. Trading him and signing a big name free agent makes no sense.

I'd assume because the new CBA only provides a compensatory draft pick when you lose a free agent (to whom you've made a qualifying offer) if he's been with the team the entire year. So you'd be able to pry much more from the buying team this winter than if he was a two-month rental. (As in, a stud AAA pitcher and side orders of lesser prospects, I'd think)

Edited by LeoCarrillo, 08 August 2012 - 07:32 PM.

[Yazdog8]

Then who plays right? Also the downgrade from Ellsbury to Sweeney is going to be big. If not, Ellsbury has had a crappy remainder of the season and isn't going to bring back much.

You can always try to sign Ross, depending on the $$$ and the length. It may not be the best option if he wants too much of either. If not, you look for another platoon righty who can play RF along with the Sweeny /Kalish group.

After three years which each challenged the notion that it can't possibly get that bad again, keeping Ellsbury, making the playoffs, and letting him go to make room for Bradley wouldn't be all that bad a thing.

I think the Sox would prefer that the transition happen that way. Get a good year from Ellsbury. Let him walk. Get the supplemental plck and then have a low cost replacement ready. Hopefully Bradley will have mastered AAA as well as he's done at the lower levels.

[dbn]

I'd rent a gorilla suit.

If there aren't any available, see post 7 by Rasputin. I like the idea about getting back to valuing OBP. Although I'm agnostic about the feast/famine offense thing right now, it seems that trading slugging for OBP would increase the consistency of the offense.

Despite all of the "according to an anonymous GM..." quotes about Beckett around the trade deadline, I suspect they could get something of value for him. Maybe I'm wrong -- and I'm not suggesting they'd get a haul -- but I could see a desperate GM who has lost out on other targets hoping for a bounce-back season from Josh, particularly since he has that bizarre odd/even year thing.

I bet Lackey has a pretty good 2013. Well, I don't bet, but I hope with cautious optimism. I mention this as it would impact on how aggressive I'd be looking for pitching depth in terms of trades, etc.

I wouldn't trade Ellsbury (unless, of course, I had a blow-me-away offer). However, I would look to get a haul of prospects for him at the deadline if he's having a great year and we're out of contention.

Oh, and fire the manager would be priority number 1 - 17.

[lexrageorge]

First, I'd see what happens over the next 7 weeks. It would be nice to see if Beckett, Lester, A-Gon, Pedroia can turn it around, or if Lavarnway can show some promise at the plate.

Generally, going into 2013, the focus should be on getting the kids up and into everyday roles. Flexibility will be limited due to the bad contracts, and paying someone to take Crawford is painful. My 2 drachmas:

1.) Offer up Beckett. He's 32, seen a significant decline in his velocity, and is always got a nagging injury of some kind. Teams will pay for starting pitching, however, and they should be able to find takers.

2.) Admit the fact that Ellsbury is as good as gone after 2013, and dangle his name out there.

3.) Offer Ortiz the qualifying contract for draft pick compensation. I'd love to have him retire wearing the Sox uniform, but the latest injury should be a warning shot that even Papi will eventually fade. If he's willing to take 2/18, I'd listen, however.

4.) Bring back arb eligible players such as Bard, Aceves, Morales, maybe Miller and Sweeney (ugh). Time trade to Salty, as I believe that would be selling high on him. All other FA's can kiss my lily white.

5.) See what the market is for a Pedroia or Lester. It's at least worth exploring; if you can get a decent return, it may be worth it, as the other tradeable players may not fetch nearly enough.

Keep Bobby for one more year. However, if he does go, so does the entire staff; we don't need the holdovers, and assistants are easier to find than some here think.

Edited by lexrageorge, 08 August 2012 - 07:45 PM.

[RedOctober3829]

Miguel Montero signed long term with arizona. Can we still trade Bowden for him?

http://m.espn.go.com...storyId=7975824

Honest question, Does the new "interleague" schedule next season change how the red sox can value Ortiz? More games in NL parks has to change the equation, right?

Yes he has. I only looked at the 2012 spreadsheet on Cot's(and not the 12-17 payroll obligations) and it didn't list his new contract. Then, go and trade one of Salty/Lavarnway and then sign a cheap backup.

[OCD SS]

This trade deadline was completely botched by Cherington. Whether he had orders from above or is completely delusional, I am not sure. However he was not quick enough, intelligent enough, creative enough, and/or had enough power to start turning around the sinking ship. Clearly something has to change there.

Why was it botched by Cherington? Unless we're accepting "Cherington" as a signifier for the decisions rather than assigning blame to an actual person it makes as much sense to presume that being the new GM really just means reading instructions off of Lucky's morning Dunkin' napkin. Over the offseason that napkin appeared to say "Get starter, get reliever, add depth, and don't add any significant payroll." If something has to change, it's that ownership needs to recognize that they may have to take a step back and reorganize the roster, even if means appearing less competitive and letting the sell-out streak end.

Ellsbury should be gone. The Sox have an heir apparent CFer, and no SS, so a deal centered around Andrus makes a lot of sense for both sides as Texas can probably re-sign Hamilton and keep him in a corner (literally and maybe also figuratively) and they can make a space for Profar. If we're finally accepting the bridge year the downgrade from Ellsbury to Kalish/ whoever (BJ Upton?) is just not that big a deal. Of course this assumes that Ellsbury gets his OPS up over .700 before the season ends.

The core is Pedroia, Buchholz, Middlebrooks, Crawford (who is unmoveable) and Gonzalez. Their good minor league pitching (Barnes, Owens, etc) is sacrosanct, along with Bradley, Swihart, and Bogarts. Everyone else is available in the right deal. I'd like to see them make a run at Justin Upton for RF (which makes Kalish expendable), but if that doesn't come off then Kalish sticks for being cheap.

[dbn]

First, I'd see what happens over the next 7 weeks. It would be nice to see if Beckett, Lester, A-Gon, Pedroia can turn it around, or if Lavarnway can show some promise at the plate.
[snip]

Not to nit-pic, but IMO Adrian already has turned it around: 0.928 OPS in July, 1.226 in 7 August games.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Everything I can to transition to a younger roster. In the field, by 2014, the goal would be to have Crawford in left, JBJ in center, Kalish or Brentz in right, Middlebrooks at 3rd, Bogaerts at short, Pedroia at 2nd, Gonzalez at 1st and a Salty/Lavarnway platoon at catcher with Lavarnway as the primary DH.

For the rotation, Lester, Buchholz, Barnes, Doubront and maybe Moralez in the rotation and a bullpen built around Bailey, Melancon, Aceves and maybe Bard if he can recapture what he was as a setup man.

I don't think it's realistic to hope that moving Crawford, even as a salary dump, is going to happen. We're stuck with him for better or worse. Gonzalez, likewise, isn't going anywhere. Pedroia is worth building around, and despite his down year, I think Lester is as well. So I don't see much upside to dumping any of them. If Lackey can rebound next year and have a decent season, moving him would be my biggest priority after 2013, but that's not what the question is about and he's not going anywhere this off season.

So, I shop Beckett. I don't expect to get a ton in return. And if he doesn't turn it around at all before the season ends, I probably just look to dump his salary. I don't buy into the bad clubhouse guy crap, but I do worry that his shoulder is falling apart and that even if he can turn it around between now and the end of the season, it's a matter of time before he's actually cooked. The drop in velocity is extremely alarming.

I take offers on Salty as his value has never been higher in Boston, but unless I'm getting a solid prospect back (B type in the upper minors or maybe a lottery ticket with really nice upside) I probably hold onto him. As part of a platoon he should remain effective offensively. He has incredible power and having Lavarnway as the other half of that platoon will give the Sox some really nice overall production as Lavarnway is really patient and has some pop of his own.

Having missed the window to cash in on Ross, I offer him another one year contract with the intention to shop him at the deadline if he has another strong season and can bridge the gap to Kalish/Brentz. If he gets a better offer (and he very well might), I go with Kalish to start the year with Sweeney and a free agent coming off the bench unless I move Ellsbury (more on that later).

I offer Papi a one year contract. If he can find a better offer I thank him for everything he's done for the team and plan to honor him with a David Ortiz day once he retires where his number gets put up on the facade.

I let Daisuke walk.

I let Shoppach walk so Lavarnway can get his permanent call up.

I offer Padilla another one year contract and if he can find better, I shake his hand and let him walk.

I take offers on Ellsbury and bring back the best package I can get for him. He should be able to bring in a strong (top 100) prospect with some nice lottery tickets if the other team is getting a full year of him.

I try to sign a center fielder to a one year deal to replace Ellsbury for the 2013 season. If I can't get Ross signed (which allows me to play Kalish at center for a year) then I make a one year offer to a guy like Bourn or Ankiel. We're not getting Cabrera for one year after the season he's having. We could also try to pick up a right field FA to move Kalish to center if Ross won't come back for one year. Xavier Nady, Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter and Matt Diaz are all worth targeting, though I'm not sure many of them would sign for a year.

Roster for 2013: C-Lavarnway/Salty 1B-Gonzalez 2B-Pedroia 3B-Middlebrooks SS-Aviles LF-Crawford CF-Kalish(Bourn/Ankiel?) RF- Sweeney(Kalish/FA?) DH-Lavarnway/rotation SP-Lester SP-Buchholz SP-Doubront SP-Moralez SP-Lackey CL-Bailey RP-Melancon RP-Aceves RP-Bard RP-Tazawa RP-MIller RP-Albers RP-Padilla/Farm/FA Bench-Punto Bench-Ciriaco Bench-FA

2013 will be another down year, but I don't think there's a quick fix for this team. Transitioning to a 2014 roster like I mentioned above would get costs down significantly. There's about 101 million tied up in salaries before adding in arb awards or exentions they might get some arb eligible players to sign. But even after that there is plenty of money to upgrade the bullpen and fill in the bench or even bring in a stronger free agent to move someone to the bench (perhaps Kalish if he doesn't put it together by then).

Hopefully by 2014 Iglesias will be ready for a super sub role and some more pitching will have emerged from the farm to help round out the roster as well. But there's a pretty good chance this team could become a young and athletic club in a hurry if they hold onto their best prospects and accept 2013 as a likely down year.

Unfortunately, I can't see upper management allowing the team to take a step back in 2013 for the long term health of the club. They won't let go of the "sellout streak" or their ratings for a full season under any circumstances. So this is just a pipe dream.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 08 August 2012 - 11:41 PM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Make a huge run at Josh Hamilton. I mean, you gotta keep fannies in the seats, and what's the worst that could happen?

[nvalvo]

I'm surprised there are still a significant number of posters who think this team will just turn itself around with the same group of guys back in 2013, specifically the same pitching staff.

If I were the GM, step 1 would be getting rid of Josh Beckett at any cost. From the outside (with all the necessary caveats that qualifier entails) he just seems like a black cloud over this team. Step 2 would be tampering with the breaks on John Lackey's car. Step 3, of course, would be "profit."

That's not how I'm reading the thread. I think most people think, as I do, that we're not contending in 2013 barring miraculous pitching recoveries. The issue is that there are no obvious avenues for really reinventing the pitching staff, because so many of the guys are locked up through 2014 and coming off of horrible seasons.

The window will reopen around 2015, with with Beckett and Lester gone, Lackey likely pitching for the minimum (that was triggered, right?), and a new core of Jackie, Xander, and whichever of the young pitchers have panned out (Owens? Barnes?) as pre-arb players, with Middlebrooks in his prime, and Pedroia, Gonzalez and Crawford as veterans.

[RedOctober3829]

Make a huge run at Josh Hamilton. I mean, you gotta keep fannies in the seats, and what's the worst that could happen?

They have $106 million committed to next year's payroll without a DH, a 4th OF, and arb salary raises for Ellsbury, Sweeney, Bailey, Salty, Bard, Breslow, Aceves, Aviles, Hill, and Morales.

[OCD SS]

They have $106 million committed to next year's payroll without a DH, a 4th OF, and arb salary raises for Ellsbury, Sweeney, Bailey, Salty, Bard, Breslow, Aceves, Aviles, Hill, and Morales.

It should go without saying for any plan that they will need to be under the cap for 2014, when the penalties get truly draconian. The CBT threshold used to be a stairway covered with huge, dusty cobwebs, and the occasional hairy spider, that needed to be brushed away while getting as little dirt on them as possible, but it's been replaced with a steel ceiling to which Selig has added an assortment of rotating knives and pointy spikes. The Sox found themselves unexpectedly caught there, and the idea with getting younger is also to get cheaper. It's just also convenient that younger players are likely to be better as well.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Sorry I was joking about Hamilton.

Ultimately, I think you avoid making any kind of go for it trades or free agent signings. Re-sign Ortiz. See if there's a market for Ellsbury, Salty, perhaps Melancon (although its clearly selling low); get rid of guys like Aviles, Sweeney, Shoppach, Miller (if Hill is healthy), Cook. If you can get 80 cents on the dollar for Beckett, take it. Let Ross, Matsuzaka walk.

Assuming you move Beckett; a rotation of Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, Morales, Aceves. I guess Lackey if healthy, ugh. Maybe a flyer on someone like Marcum or McCarthy. Bullpen of Tazawa, Bard, Bailey, Breslow, Hill / Miller, and a free agent or two (Mike Adams, Soria?).

Lineup of Crawford, Bradley, Kalish / Linares, Middlebrooks, Iglesias, Pedroia, Gonzalez, Lavarnway, Ortiz. Take a few flyers on guys in the Mueller / Millar / Bellhorn kind of mold (guys who are cheap, get on base, have something to prove, etc.) Integrate youth, move payroll, improve flexibility, don't make any stupid long term investments.

Or, two chicks at the same time, man.

[JakeRae]

I have two questions for those suggesting we trade Ellsbury.

1) Who plays CF in 2013?
2) Why is trading Ellsbury this offseason better than waiting until the 2013 deadline when Bradley will have had more than a month and a half above A ball?

And remember, the reason trading Ellsbury makes any sense at all is because he's going to get expensive. Trading him and signing a big name free agent makes no sense.

1) My post answered this, kind of. But, whoever earns the spot out of camp out of Kalish, Bradley, Linares, and Lin. You could add Sweeney and Ross (if he can be kept for reasonable dollars) to the list auditioning for the role.
2) It is better to trade Ellsbury this offseason for several reasons. First, because he is worth more for a full season to the acquiring team. Second, because if the team is in contention at the break they won't be able to get away with trading him then and it is in the long term bests interests of the organization to trade him assuming he brings back an Adrian Gonzalez type return. Third, because the acquiring team will have an offseason to try to work out a deal with him on a long term extension. And, before people start crying Boras, with Ellsbury's health history, I think he'd have a very hard time saying no to a slightly below market but still fair long term deal (think Adrian Gonzalez again).

I'm willing to take the hit to the team on the field next year to maximize long term value. I strongly believe that if you consistently make the moves that maximize long term value, you end up with a dynasty. If you don't, you end up having to rebuild every few years because your window has run out.

If I were guessing what my outfield would look like next year, when all is said and done, after camp battles are over, it would be Sweeney/Ross in RF, Kalish in CF, Linares/Nava in LF to start the season. When Crawford finishes his rehab, Nava or Sweeney gets traded (or someone will be hurt by then). If Bradley forces his way onto the roster, Linares gets demoted and Kalish switches to right. (When Crawford is back, Linares would continue to play as a platoon batter giving Crawford and Kalish each some rest against lefties.) I would also look into trading Sweeney and bringing in another platoon lefty who doesn't break his hand punching doors.

[Sprowl]

Clean house and build for 2014. Market 2013 as the emergence of the youngsters. Trade anyone whose value and trend will peak before then, or has peaked already.

Team of the future:

1B Gonzalez, 2B Pedroia, SS Iglesias (or Bogaerts or Vinicio), 3B Middlebrooks (or Bogaerts)
Bradley in centerfield; Bogaerts, Brentz or another current prospect in right field; flotsam in left field (could still be Nava);
Lavarnway/Saltalamacchia platoon as catcher; Lavarnway or a resting LHB as DH.

Lose Beckett ASAP (waiver wire deal before August 31). The guy is a foul-mouthed, pot-bellied, snitch-hunting shmuck who could still help a legitimate playoff contender go deep in the postseason. That is not the 2012 Red Sox.

Bid farewell to Papi this winter. Use the draft picks wisely.
Bid farewell to DiceK this winter. Use the draft picks wisely.

Trade Lackey in June 2013 (he has to show that he has regained competence before his trade value can be realized).
Trade Lester in 2013 as soon as he has a hot streak and shows that he can still spot his cutter. If he doesn't fetch full value, keep him.
Trade Ellsbury in 2013 as soon as he demonstrates that he has recovered his upper body strength after the shoulder injury (losing his front shoulder strength has done a number on his power).
Trade Crawford whenever a good offer comes along. He is still dynamic, but he will never achieve full value in Fenway and his contract is a millstone.

The starting rotation looks like Buchholz, Doubront, Barnes, and possibly Lester. I'm still holding some hope for Pimentel and Tazawa as starters.

Relievers come, relievers go. None of the current bullpen is worth projecting beyond 2013, so they're all available.

[SoxScout]

Bid farewell to Papi this winter. Use the draft picks wisely.
Bid farewell to DiceK this winter. Use the draft picks wisely.

You only get 1 pick now (and its after the 1st round), and I don't see the Sox offering Matsuzaka, so I doubt he nets us one.

Trade Ellsbury in 2013 as soon as he demonstrates that he has recovered his upper body strength after the shoulder injury (losing his front shoulder strength has done a number on his power).

If he is traded after the first day of the season that team can't offer him "arbitration" and collect a pick if they can't re-sign him, so if he is not traded this winter they have completely fucked up get any value for him at all in not trading him at this deadline or this offseason.

Edited by SoxScout, 08 August 2012 - 11:37 PM.

[maufman]

Where's Lackey in your scenario? I get that we all think he's a horsefaced douche, but he's still under contract and should be fully recovered from TJS. He's going to be in the mix next season, like it or not. But I guess since the majority of plans so far involve trading/dumping a bunch of others like Beckett, Ellsbury, Salty, etc, one more pennies on the dollar dump job isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Totally forgot about Lackey. He's your 5th starter.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I try to sign a center fielder to a one year deal to replace Ellsbury for the 2013 season. If I can't get Ross signed (which allows me to play Kalish at center for a year) then I make a one year offer to a guy like Bourn or Ankiel. We're not getting Cabrera for one year after the season he's having.

You're not getting Bourn on a one year deal either. Guy will be one of the top 10 FAs this year.

[The Gray Eagle]

Does the GM have any autonomy, or is his choice for manager going to get publicly rejected by ownership and replaced by the owner's choice? Because if that's how it's going to be, the GM won't be able to do very much.

Assuming autonomy, if I was GM I would first try to get the baseball operations focused on basic fundamentals-- valuing offensive players who don't make outs, and pitchers who control the strike zone. Developing your own players is extremely important and money needs to be spent on that. And making long-term financial commitments to players from other organizations (since you likely don't know how they will do in the AL East, with the Boston atmosphere, how they will play in Fenway 81 games a year, etc.) is almost always a bad deal.The transactions you make need to align with those core principles.

The next step would be to make some changes in the management of the team. Major league scouting has been abysmal recently IMO so I would replace Baird with someone else and bring in new sets of eyes for that department.

The minor league system seems to be doing well, I wouldn't change much there, just keep investing, and emphasize that we want hitters who don't make outs and pitchers who command the strike zone.

Valentine and the coaching staff need to be replaced. Valentine isn't the best possible manager we can get, so i"d move on from him and try to find the best possible manager we can get. Someone with the respect of players, who makes decisions using all the info he can get, not just his gut and not just from a spreadsheet. This is a very difficult role to fill, but you've got to try to find someone to fill it.

The new manager needs to have an understanding with the medical staff-- if a player is injured to the point where it's negatively impacting his performance, then he needs to go on the DL and not try to tough it out. The manager needs to not buy into the stupid macho baseball code where players get hurt, play though it, and play terribly, instead of getting healthy and effective again. There seems to have been a lot of this kind of pigheadedness on this team over the past few years and it needs to stop. You're hurt to the point where you're playing badly, then you're not going to play until you're healthy again.

The organization needs a pitching guru-- someone to establish the organization's approach to pitching at all levels. This role could either be a front office exec, or the big league pitching coach. If it's an exec, then the pitching coach has to be on the same page. If it's the pitching coach, then someone else will be needed to establish that coach's vision throughout the minors and to keep it in mind when evaluating big leaguers and making transactions. I don't know who that person would be. Dave Duncan, Leo Mazzone, Rick Peterson, I don't know. But it's an important job, and money needs to be spent on finding the best guy for it and for landing him.

If the best person for that job needs to be the team's pitching coach, then that person and the new manager are going to need to work together effectively.

The first job for this guy is to try to get Lester and Beckett back on track. Might not work, but again, it's got to be tried.

In terms of specific transactions, you have to see what you could get for basically any player on the roster, just to see if there are any moves that will improve the team. Realistically, you wouldn't get enough back for most of these guys to make it worthwhile to move them. But I'd try very hard to find a team to take Crawford's contract, to try to get some room to move. Probably won't happen, but it's yet another thing that's got to be tried. If Lackey's pitching next year, then the same with him, though his contract won't be bad at all by next year, I just don't like the influence he's had on the other pitchers since he's been here. That's just my outsider's perception, might not be true at all. But since he's also been a horrible pitcher and/or hurt for most of his time here, I'd explore dumping him.

Beckett couldn't be traded for any real value this offseason, so I'd let the new pitching guru try to get him straightened out. Lackey too, though Lackey probably won't have any command next year, coming off surgery, so he's likely to be crappy and untradeable again.

As for Ellsbury, other teams know he's injury prone, they know his 2011 might have been a fluke, and their offers are going to be based on that knowledge. In other words, we wouldn't get enough for him to make it worth trading him. I'd offer him an extension like the Jones Orioles contract, and he'd probably turn it down. So be it. If you're contending at the deadline, you keep him for the pennant race. If you're not, you see what you can get for him then. If he looks like he did in 2011, you'd get more for him then than you would now, because he wouldn't bring back that much right now.

Like other people have said, I'd try to keep Ortiz for two more years at around what he's making now. That will probably be an overpay, but I am willing to overpay a bit for exceptional players who deliver multiple world championships. It builds the brand with the fanbase and lets the players know they'll be rewarded if they produce championships.

I would stay away from any big money free agents, firstly because the team can't afford them anymore but mostly because those tend to be bad deals that can cripple you for years. I'd definitely look at one-year free agents deals, like the Ross deal this offseason. Bring in a couple guys who might fit here and let them fight for playing time. If they can't cut it, you aren't married to them. If a young player earns playing time, you can give it to them.

Those are generally the steps I'd take. Not one bit of this will happen though, because the very first thing I mentioned, autonomy, won't be granted. Until we get a real GM in here who is allowed to fix things, then things aren't going to get fixed.

[Plympton91]

They have $106 million committed to next year's payroll without a DH, a 4th OF, and arb salary raises for Ellsbury, Sweeney, Bailey, Salty, Bard, Breslow, Aceves, Aviles, Hill, and Morales.

I'd nontender Sweeney, trade Salty (Lavarnway starts) and Aviles (Punto/Ciriaco/Iglesias) unless he agrees to no raise, and neither Hill nor Bard is getting a raise because of injury and suckage, respectively, So, you slot Ellsbury into Matsuzaka's slot, Bailey into Jenks's slot, Breslow gets what they're paying Padilla (thanks, have a nice life), Morales gets some of what Ellsbury was getting this year, and Aceves gets what Bailey was getting this year.

Most of people's plans seem to center around pie in the sky projections of trade value for Ellsbury and Beckett. My sense is that if you traded Ellsbury you'd get back about the equivalent of Bryce Brentz and Zach Britton; and if you traded Beckett plus $13 million per season you'd get back the equivalent of Brett Lillibridge. So, you'd free up roughly $15 million or so in salary, but need to replace them with a potential MVP candidate and #1 starter in order to be competitive. In Ellsbury's case, I'd keep him. I'd rather treat it as us renting him for a year and take the compensation pick if they decide not to resign him (dumb, but they made their bed with Crawford and agreed to a de facto salary cap so probably inevitable) rather than somebody else get him for the depressed trade price this offseason. In Beckett's case, the reduced velocity, constant nagging injuries (occasionally to the shoulder), and lack of commitment would make me willing to trade him to an NL team for meaningful salary relief ($6 million or more absorbed by the acquiring team) and count on replacing him in next year's rotation with Lackey.

Then I would try to trade any combination of 4 talents not including Boegarts and Jackie Bradley for Felix Hernandez, and sign him. Perhaps that might be a way to get real value for Ellsbury, if Seattle wants to trade pitching for offense again, you could do Ellsbury and a prospect. But, if you can't do it on your terms, then go into next season with what you have. Worst case:

I'd resign Ortiz, and use Ross's and whatever I saved of Beckett's money to offset part of the salary increase from the acquisition of Hernandez, or failing that get a shortstop with upside, like Steven Drew, by offering a generous a 1 year contract a la Beltre.

Assuming you don't get Hernandez:

Lavarnway/caddy; Gonzalez, Pedroia, Drew, Middlebrooks, Crawford, Ellsbury, Kalish/Linares, Ortiz; Buchholz, Lester, Lackey, Doubront, Morales; Bailey, Aceves, Bard, Melancon, Hill, Miller, Breslow

Edited by Plympton91, 09 August 2012 - 03:47 PM.

[RedOctober3829]

With Xander Boegarts getting promoted to Portland, if he does well for the last part of the season, does he get a look at SS in spring training?

[SoxFanPJ]

The big move to be made is the trade of Ellsbury. With the Red Sox long term contract situation it is a non-starter to sign Ellsbury to an extension, there is just no way you can commit that level of resources to three position players. Ellsbury's pending free agency and new CBA makes this off-season the time to maximize your return on trading him.

TRADE:

1) Ellsbury: For example trade Ellsbury to the Mariners for James Paxon(LHP) and Nick Franklin (SS). Both Paxon and Franklin begin 2013 in AAA but are mid-season potential additions to the 25 man roster.

2) Beckett: Arguably the toughest player for the Red Sox to trade. Any deal of Beckett is either likely to be a deal of Beckett + lots of money for a marginal prospect or exchange of bad contracts. It is difficult to find a fit where the Red Sox aren't losing the trade pretty significantly at this point but an effort should be made.

3) Aceves: Alfredo has done a pretty impressive job (inherited runners aside) he will be hitting Arb2 this off-season and is going to be getting a demotion in the bullpen when Bailey returns. The "proven closer" cache, age, performance and relative cost will make him marketable this winter and probably the reliever that can bring the most in return for a trade.

4) Saltalamacchia: Exploit Salty's power explosion to market the catcher who is going to get a major pay raise through arbitration. No way do I sign Salty long term. Give the majority share of starting job to Lavarnway and either re-sign Shoppach or find another back up catcher off the free agent scrap heap or minor trade.

RE-SIGN:

1) Ortiz: Normally I would say show Ortiz the door, but his performance and the chances I would take with the rest of the roster need to keep his bat in the line-up. If he decides to walk away from qualifying offer you collect the draft picks, if he wants a 2 year deal at a lower AAV 2/$20-24M than do that.

SHOW THE DOOR:

1) Ross: I have enjoyed Ross' hitting but have been less than impressed with his defense. He has hit well enough to get a 2-3 year deal for more than I would be comfortable paying. I would also not want to extent the $13M+ qualifying offer based on the rest of the payroll.

2) Padilla: Based on the rising arbitration costs of the rest of the bullpen and the Red Sox relative depth here, you let Padilla go.

3) Matsuzaka: See ya.

NEW ADDITIONS:

1) Torii Hunter: 1/$5M + Incentives. You need more OF depth in case Crawford's elbow blows out and Bradley needs probably at least until mid-2013 before he is ready to start in Boston. Also provides another RH bat.

2013 Projected Roster:

C- Lavarnway
1B- Gonzalez
2B- Pedroia
SS- Aviles
3B- Middlebrooks
LF- Crawford (until his elbow blows, then Nava)
CF- Kalish
RF- Hunter
DH- Ortiz

BENCH: C- Shoppach, IF-Punto, OF-Sweeney, OF-Nava

SP1- Lester
SP2- Buchholz
SP3- Doubront
SP4- Morales
SP5- Lackey

CL- Bailey
RP- Bard
RP- Tazawa
RP- Breslow
RP- Miller
RP- Mortensen
RP- Melancon

In Season 2013 trades: Based on performance of prospects and the players themselves you look to deal Aviles, Sweeney, Melancon and Lackey in season next year.

Edited by SoxFanPJ, 09 August 2012 - 04:18 PM.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Well, I've been thinking more seriously about this question today, and here's my 12-step program for the Sox:

1. Fire Allard Baird and reorganize baseball ops. The long-term goal will be to unify the professional, amateur, and international scouting departments.

Comment: This attempts remedy what I see as the most serious systemic problem facing the Sox -- properly valuing prospects against established players.

2. Fire Bobby Valentine and hire Dave Martinez to manage the team. Whatever it takes to pry him away from the Rays, do it.

Comment: It's time to put the drama away and focus on rebuilding the baseball team with newer, fresher thinking than the wrap sandwich.

3. Sign David Ortiz to a 3 year/$45MM contract before he even hits free agency. Yes, it's an overpay. But it's my overpay.

Comment: Of course it's too much money. But if there's one player on the team who needs to remain a Boston Red Sox, it's Big Papi.

4. DFA Nick Punto.

Comment: none.

5. Non-tender Ryan Sweeney, Scott Atchison, and Rich Hill. Atchison and Hill are good guys and good pitchers, but have only one good elbow between them.

Comment: Sweeney would make way too much in arbitration for a defensive specialist, though this move makes the future look dark for on-field eye-candy.

6. Protect Dan Butler, Reynaldo Rodriguez, Steven Wright, Alex Wilson, Josh Fields, Mike Olmsted, and Brock Huntzinger, filling up the offseason roster.

Comment: Matsuzaka, Shoppach, Punto, Sweeney, Ross, Hill, Padilla, Atchison, and Cook are replaced. I assume further that Gomez is DFA'd for Bailey.

7. Trade Jon Lester. A team playing half its games at Fenway Park can afford at most two LH starting pitchers. In my world, that means Doubront and Morales.

Comment: I wish it were Beckett or Lackey also, but I can't see a way to make either of them disappear without chipping in $10MM or more, and still getting bupkus in return. Anyway, even after this year Lester should still fetch a couple top-5 prospects and then some. My first choice is STL, targeting Oscar Tavaras and Carlos Martinez.

8. Trade Jarrod Saltalamacchia. He hits home runs, when he makes contact. When he makes contact. So he's either an offensive force, or just offensive.

Comment: As one of the top-slugging catchers in MLB, he's worth at least one good prospect. My first choice is PIT, targeting Alen Hanson.

9. Trade Alfredo Aceves. Proven closer or not, the return matters less than the distraction of him bitching about neither starting nor closing next season.

Comment: If he hadn't pitched so poorly this season in multiple-inning appearances I'd be tempted to replace Beckett in the rotation with him. But I'm not.

10. Sign Kelly Shoppach to a 1 year/$2MM contract. After the above trades, there will be room on the 40-man, and Shoppach is useful in Fenway against LHP.

Comment: I want Lavarnway to have a veteran backup since he's got a lot to learn. No wait, maybe it's that I just want to see him steal another base?

11. Go into the season with almost the same roster as this year....and shopping Beckett and Lackey hard.

Comment: Well, at least the Sox will be under the CBT threshold, and there's two 40-man spots open.

25-man Roster:

Lineup ---- Ortiz, Lavarnway, Gonzalez, Pedroia, Aviles, Middlebrooks, Crawford, Ellsbury, Kalish

Starters --- Beckett, Buchholz, Doubront, Lackey, Morales

Relievers - Bailey, Bard, Breslow, Tazawa, Miller, Melancon, Mortensen

Bench ---- Shoppach, Ciriaco, Valencia, Nava

40-man Roster:

Position --- Butler ( C), Rodriguez (1B), Iglesias (SS)

Starters --- Stewart ( R), Wright (K), Pimentel ( R), Britton (L)

Relievers - Carpenter ( R), Wilson ( R), Fields ( R), Olmsted ( R), Huntzinger ( R)

12. Get my resume up-to-date. Because let's face it, Boston -- the media and the fans -- is a city demanding blood.

Comment: Specifically, Beckett's blood. And unless I'm missing something there's just no way to replace him while eating enough of his contract to get rid of him, re-sign Papi, and remain under the luxury tax threshold. The trade deadline was the time for that to happen, but it slipped away meekly.

Edited by Buzzkill Pauley, 09 August 2012 - 04:53 PM.

[Cellar-Door]

so you cut pennies everywhere you can so you can give Ortiz a massive overpay?
Why would you voluntarily burn money like that? If you extend him an qualifting offer and a 2 year deal he's yours because no other team will want to lose a draft pick to sign him.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

so you cut pennies everywhere you can so you can give Ortiz a massive overpay?
Why would you voluntarily burn money like that? If you extend him an qualifting offer and a 2 year deal he's yours because no other team will want to lose a draft pick to sign him.

Where am I cutting pennies? Punto and Sweeney = completely fungible. Atchison and Hill = completely injured.

Where am I overpaying? I'm overpaying where I can't get equivalent production for any cost. And by equivalent production, I of course also believe the goodwill assets from having a fan favorite end his hope-he-gets there HOF career as a Red Sox must be included.

Plus, you really don't think Texas might try to land Ortiz -- if Hamilton leaves, there's a big LH hole opening down in Arlington.

[maufman]

Most of people's plans seem to center around pie in the sky projections of trade value for Ellsbury and Beckett. My sense is that if you traded Ellsbury you'd get back about the equivalent of Bryce Brentz and Zach Britton; and if you traded Beckett plus $13 million per season you'd get back the equivalent of Brett Lillibridge. So, you'd free up roughly $15 million or so in salary, but need to replace them with a potential MVP candidate and #1 starter in order to be competitive. In Ellsbury's case, I'd keep him. I'd rather treat it as us renting him for a year and take the compensation pick if they decide not to resign him (dumb, but they made their bed with Crawford and agreed to a de facto salary cap so probably inevitable) rather than somebody else get him for the depressed trade price this offseason. In Beckett's case, the reduced velocity, constant nagging injuries (occasionally to the shoulder), and lack of commitment would make me willing to trade him to an NL team for meaningful salary relief ($6 million or more absorbed by the acquiring team) and count on replacing him in next year's rotation with Lackey.

Do I understand you to be saying that you'd trade Beckett if you could get someone to eat half his remaining money? Unless his shoulder is shredded to the point where he couldn't pass a physical, I think such a deal could be had at any moment. Personally, I wouldn't deal him unless you could move virtually all the remaining money (though if someone offered prospects in exchange for eating money, I'd evaluate that on the merits).

I think you're right on Ellsbury's current value. His shoulder injury in April cost the club much more than three months of production.

You're overrating the status quo when you say that anyone who wants to trade Beckett and Ellsbury needs to replace them with a #1 SP and a potential MVP candidate. His luck-fueled 2011 ERA notwithstanding, Josh Beckett hasn't been a legit #1 starter since at least 2009; the chances of him regaining that form are vanishingly small. I'm a tad more optimistic about Ellsbury, but his MVP-caliber 2011 campaign will likely turn out to be the best season of his career -- perhaps by a wide margin. If we need #1/MVP level production from those two roster spots, we're likely screwed whether we deal those guys or stand pat. Fortunately, I don't think the Sox "need" that -- they just need solid production from those two spots, coupled with upgrades or pleasant surprises elsewhere.

[dbn]

While I'm in the crowd that is in favor of selling high on Salty, let's not underestimate the risk in doing so. Lavarnway is a good prospect, but we still don't know how well he will hit ML pitching -- he has only 58 ML PAs to date. Also, there has been talk about his defense not being so hot (although I think it's been improving; others would know better than me). Then there's Shoppach, who I like as a veteran backup. However, we shouldn't be too swayed by his 2012. Here are his sOPS+ against RHP and LHP, with PAs in ():

yr_____vRHP______vLHP
2012__133 (68)____119 (82)
2011___24 (128)___109 (125)
2010___21 (83)____124 (104)
2009___82 (257)___168 (70)
2008__130 (299)___142 (104)
2007___88 (136)___176 (41)
2006___45 (81)____149 (39)
career__78 (1064)__141 (569)

He's always hit LHP well, but aside from the two crazy outliers, he hasn't hit RHP (i.e., ~70% of all pitchers) at all. If they trade Salty, there is a decent chance they are left with one catcher who can't hit very well and another who can't hit or catch very well.

[edit to add career splits. Also, I left out his 2005 numbers because they are only 12 & 4 PAs (with sOPS+ of -100 and -27!)]

Edited by dbn, 09 August 2012 - 06:24 PM.

[Rasputin]

so you cut pennies everywhere you can so you can give Ortiz a massive overpay?

Without regards to the specifics and not agreeing with the "massive" appellation, yes, yes, damn fucking yes.

YOU SPEND MONEY ON PLAYERS THAT MAKE A DIFFERENCE

If you can save a million by dumping Punto and going with Ciriaco and giving that money to Papi, you do it.

If you can save another couple million by dumping Shoppach and letting Lavarnway catch so you can give that money to Papi, you do it.

Ross, Kalish, et cetera, so forth.

[Rudy Pemberton]

But, wait....last year, Cherington supposedly offered Ortiz 2 years, 18M; signed him for 1 year, 14.5M (good one, Ben) and now folks are suggesting 3/45? Which would mean he'd go from an offer of 2/18 to 4/60 in one year?

[Cellar-Door]

Without regards to the specifics and not agreeing with the "massive" appellation, yes, yes, damn fucking yes.

YOU SPEND MONEY ON PLAYERS THAT MAKE A DIFFERENCE

If you can save a million by dumping Punto and going with Ciriaco and giving that money to Papi, you do it.

If you can save another couple million by dumping Shoppach and letting Lavarnway catch so you can give that money to Papi, you do it.

Ross, Kalish, et cetera, so forth.

My point was more that Papi has no leverage, there are what 2 maybe 3 teams (if that) that could reasonably pay him, and none of them would give up a first for him. A two year deal for 15M is an overpay that I'm fine with to keep him happy, but another full year at 15M is how teams end up sucking like we do now. He'll be almost 40 when that deal runs out. 2 years 20-25 would probably be enough considering he has no real leverage. Do we really think he got significantly more attractive to teams by having a really nice start, but getting a year older and having a recurrence of a previous injury keep him out for what is now approaching a month?

Edited by Cellar-Door, 09 August 2012 - 09:03 PM.

[Rasputin]

My point was more that Papi has no leverage, there are what 2 maybe 3 teams (if that) that could reasonably pay him, and none of them would give up a first for him. A two year deal for 15M is an overpay that I'm fine with to keep him happy, but another full year at 15M is how teams end up sucking like we do now. He'll be almost 40 when that deal runs out. 2 years 20-25 would probably be enough considering he has no real leverage. Do we really think he got significantly more attractive to teams by having a really nice start, but getting a year older and having a recurrence of a previous injury keep him out for what is now approaching a month?

As I have previously stated, I believe in this thread, I would much rather sign him for two years than three but if a market develops and it's three years or lose him, I go for three.