There's a sequence of questions that need to be answered, and whether BV should be fired is about fourth in line.
1. Will LL be forced into retirement?
2. Will Ben Cherington be demoted or fired?
3. Which key players will be placed on the trading block this winter, or allowed to leave via free agency?
4. Who will manage this team in 2013?
I expect a shake up in the top levels of the organization. Most likely, this means LL firing Ben, but it could mean LL retiring and being replaced by a club President who would take a far more active role in baseball ops -- which would be a demotion for Ben, but would allow him to avoid losing face by being fired. Or, a new President might keep his hands off baseball ops, but decide that someone besides Ben should be running the show. Or, it might mean a new President retaining Ben, but keeping him on a short leash and/or micromanaging him differently from the way that LL has (if press reports are to be believed) micromanaged him. Or, it might mean a new President letting Ben run the show as he sees fit.
In any event, I think the odds of having the same FO configuration in April 2013 as today are significantly less than 50/50.
As a general rule, managers who are working for a GM other than the guy who hired them have a short shelf-life. This will be true in Boston whether BV remains at the helm for the rest of the season or is fired now. Because 3 managerial changes in the space of 18-24 months would be bad for the organization, I think BV should stay on until the status of the key players in the FO is resolved. If the new FO sees 2013 as (another) transition year, they may want BV to remain to preside over the house-cleaning, allowing their preferred manager to take the helm in 2014 with a clean slate. (This is particularly true if the new GM wants to get rid of some of the players who have had the most difficult relationships with BV.)
In sum, let BV finish out the season. An in-season firing would sacrifice longer-term stability in exchange for a (perhaps) better shot at the playoffs in 2012. At this point, that's a bad move.
Edited by maufman, 05 August 2012 - 12:21 PM.