Okay, I catch a lot of flak on another forum for being a defender of Josh Beckett. I decided to look up his numbers this season and do a little tweaking to account for some things that I consider outliers among other things. Here's what I posted:
Beckett's numbers are skewed into "meh" territory by 3 awful starts. His opening start in Detroit, the one vs Cleveland, and his start against New York. In those games, Josh allowed 20 earned runs over 11 innings. With all 3 of these starts taken into account, Josh has allowed 56 earned runs over 111 innings.
I took those 3 starts and turned them into bare-bones quality starts, 6 innings with 3 earned runs. This changed Josh's totals to 45 earned runs over 118 innings. This equates to a 3.43 ERA, much nicer than the 4.54 we're currently looking at.
The starts vs Detroit and Cleveland had one thing in common, they took place after a long layoff in which Josh hadn't pitched in several days. I left the start vs New York in, which took place after a regular rest period and is more in line with what you can normally expect on a bad day ( a lot of runs but battling through to eat 5 or so innings), and his overall numbers this year on normal rest come out to:
98 innings/ 40 earned runs which is a 3.67 ERA. That 3.67 ERA is much prettier than the 4.54 and is also just about perfectly in line with the peripherals, like his 3.57 FIP, that he has put up this year.
When you adjust for two catastrophic outliers, Josh Beckett has had a very solid season in which he's had 2 bad starts severely skew the overall line that is clearly not indicative of his overall performance this season.
After being suggested to take away his 3 best outings to go with the 3 meltdowns:
If you take out the best and worst 3 of Josh's starts, you get 31 Earned runs over 77 1/3 innings. That comes out to a 3.60 ERA.
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This look at things was completely shot down by one member and I was just interested in a second opinion. I feel as though a lot of the above data makes sense and was curious if anybody feels similarly. If this is wrong, please explain why because above all else I want to learn. Just don't be a jerk please. I'm fragile.
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Josh Beckett
Started by
BornToRun
, Aug 01 2012 11:47 AM
7 replies to this topic
#2
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Posted 01 August 2012 - 01:18 PM
This look at things was completely shot down by one member and I was just interested in a second opinion. I feel as though a lot of the above data makes sense and was curious if anybody feels similarly. If this is wrong, please explain why because above all else I want to learn. Just don't be a jerk please. I'm fragile.
I'm not sure that's really the best way to look at it. Things get tricky when you start taking away bad starts, because every pitcher is going to look better when you do that. I'd look at something like quality starts. Quality starts aren't park-adjusted and don't take into account things like having to leave a start with injury or rainout, so that's going to be a little unfair, but I think it's probably a more valid way of trying to exclude outliers.
#3
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Posted 01 August 2012 - 01:23 PM
I understand that view and I agree with it for the most part. If josh had just gone out there on normal rest/ not coming off an injury and gotten rocked, I would've never brought this up. I just think that the two starts va Detroit and cleveland contain some factors that would support the idea that they were outliers and make his bottom line worse than his actual performance. I've realized my mistake in screwing with the Yankees start because that was just a flat out shitty outing. I do feel though that the circumstances of the other two are worth considering when discussing Josh's 2012 performance.
#4
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Posted 02 August 2012 - 08:45 AM
Beckett is what he is... a guy that has had as many seasons with the Sox where he looked like a top-of-the-rotation guy, as he has looked like a bottom-of-the-rotation guy. Despite last season's success, I think the trend (age/loss of velocity/injuries) will probably have more and more of his remaining time in baseball looking like a #4/5 than a #2.
#5
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Posted 02 August 2012 - 11:28 AM
You're probably right but I'm just voicing the opinion that his 2012 season hasn't been as bad as a 4.54 ERA would indicate. I think he's pitched better than that.
#6
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Posted 02 August 2012 - 02:21 PM
You're probably right but I'm just voicing the opinion that his 2012 season hasn't been as bad as a 4.54 ERA would indicate. I think he's pitched better than that.
The answer to that is this... his season is exactly what 4.54 ERA typically looks like for guy with 18 starts and 111 IP.
#7
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Posted 02 August 2012 - 04:03 PM
The answer to that is this... his season is exactly what 4.54 ERA typically looks like for guy with 18 starts and 111 IP.
Well, there are lots of ways a 4.54 ERA can look. FIP actually thinks his season looks like a 3.57 ERA, which is eerily exactly what it thought his excellent 2011 season looked like.
Edited by alwyn96, 02 August 2012 - 04:18 PM.
#8
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- 7,079 posts
SoSH Member
Posted 24 August 2012 - 12:20 PM
Josh Must Go will be priority one...
According to ESPN's Jayson Stark, trading Josh Beckett will "clearly (be) the No. 1 item" on Boston's offseason agenda after deciding on manager Bobby Valentine's future.
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