127 replies to this topic

[Koufax]

Everything about him is small sample size. He is quite old to be getting his first real exposure to MLB play, but he is an interesting blend of talents, the foremost being speed. Just as Carl Crawford induced an error last night with his speed, allowing Pedro to score from second on an infield "hit" (with Pedro's speed being a factor in being able to motor from second to home when the ball never left the infield), Pedro seems to have the ability to get on the nerves of the opponents -- generating infield hits, distracting pitchers when on base, etc.

So the question is, does he have a long-term role here, and what might that be? Is he able to handle the shortstop position, which really does seem to be up for grabs? Is is a utility player? A super-sub?

What do you all think he can be? What is he likely to be?

[Phenom]

In Ciriaco, we have a better version of Nick Punto.

At worst, he's a wash offensively and defensively with Punto, and there's no doubt he's a more dynamic threat on the basepaths.

The multi-year contract given to Punto remains an especially curious decision. My bet is because of Punto's contract, he will remain on the team when Ortiz returns from the DL, with Ciriaco getting recalled in September when rosters expand..

Of course, I would cut my losses with Punto and keep Ciriaco on the team. It's not a massive upgrade, but it's an upgrade nonetheless.

[TheoShmeo]

Funny, I was thinking about starting a similar thread.

I was going to add two more questions:

- What will the Sox do when Aviles is healthy and ready to take over SS?

- What should they do?

I don't know what Ciriaco will be. I do know that he's a late bloomer and that this might just be a hot streak. Say what you will about Bobby, but the man has been very good at milking hot streaks and staying with players until they cool down (as opposed to Tito last year with Reddick, but I digress and risk some ire there).

Consisent with how Bobby has handled once hot players like Sweeney Nava and, to a lesser extent, Podsednik, I hope Bobby will keep Ciriaco in the line-up unless and until the clock strikes midnight on him. After all, the only area in which Aviles is clearly superior to Ciriaco is power, and a lot of Aviles' homers came early this year.

[Dogman2]

In Ciriaco, we have a better version of Nick Punto.



My bet is because of Punto's contract, he will remain on the team when Ortiz returns from the DL, with Ciriaco getting recalled in September when rosters expand..

He is out of options and likely to be claimed if the Sox attempt to send him down.

[johnnywayback]

Seems like we have until Ortiz gets back to see if we really feel good about Ciriaco. Can't imagine anyone will claim Punto on waivers, and if they do, best wishes. Otherwise, I'd think he'd be a likely trade candidate. Someone out there is going to have an infielder go down and see in Punto what the Red Sox saw in him: a veteran player who won't kill you with his glove and can do a few useful things reasonably well. And if you're a young team about to play meaningful late-season baseball for the first time in your core players' careers (Washington, Pittsburgh, Oakland), maybe that stupid intangible nonsense has some appeal for you, as well.

Of course, if Aviles's toe is really a problem, you could DL him and buy yourself a little more time to decide.

[irinmike]

All Ciriaco has done since he came up is help the Sox win. Who cares about sample size and former stats. As long as he is plugged into the ss position and produces offensively, without hurting the middle of the infield defensively, you keep him in there. Worry about the fall out later, because right now Ciriaco "makes things happen". Once on base, he is always a threat with his speed. And one more thing, those "lucky" hits to right field, were hit there by design to move runners along, and the fact that they fell in for hits is an added bonus. KEEP the man in the lineup!

[Rough Carrigan]

^{A giraffe.}

[Sprowl]

In Ciriaco, we have a better version of Nick Punto.

Ciriaco is living proof of the folly of spending a multi-year contract on a utility infielder like Punto. Competent reserve middle infielders are just not that scarce. The power that Ciriaco showed in spring training has not reappeared this summer, but he is a patient hitter who works the pitcher well and doesn't chase bad pitches. He shows good bat control on the bunt and the hit and run, and he seems to be the Red Sox' best base-stealer right now, since both Ellsbury and Crawford look hesitant since returning. Ciriaco is just what a manager needs to play smallball, although he is the worst DH possible. Ciriaco's fielding looked rusty yesterday, with gangly footwork and poor anticipation on Infante's infield hit and a muffed catch on the stolen base. Up until that game, he had looked very good in the field: his minor-league penchant for throwing errors as a shortstop has not shown up yet in Boston, and he has made several excellent stops going to his backhand. I don't think that Aviles plays again until the Red Sox face a left-handed starter.

^{A giraffe.}

A plesiosaur.

[tims4wins]

Ciriaco is living proof of the folly of spending a multi-year contract on a utility infielder like Punto. Competent reserve middle infielders are just not that scarce. The power that Ciriaco showed in spring training has not reappeared this summer, but he is a patient hitter who works the pitcher well and doesn't chase bad pitches. He shows good bat control on the bunt and the hit and run, and he seems to be the Red Sox' best base-stealer right now, since both Ellsbury and Crawford look hesitant since returning. Ciriaco is just what a manager needs to play smallball, although he is the worst DH possible. Ciriaco's fielding looked rusty yesterday, with gangly footwork and poor anticipation on Infante's infield hit and a muffed catch on the stolen base. Up until that game, he had looked very good in the field: his minor-league penchant for throwing errors as a shortstop has not shown up yet in Boston, and he has made several excellent stops going to his backhand. I don't think that Aviles plays again until the Red Sox face a left-handed starter.



A plesiosaur.

Huh? His O-Swing % is 50.8%, which is 5% higher than the worst qualified offender, Josh Hamilton. He sees 3.14 pitches per plate appearance, which would put him 2nd to last in all of MLB among players with 100 plate appearances. I like Ciriaco, but patient he is not.

[PrometheusWakefield]

Ciriaco is living proof of the folly of spending a multi-year contract on a utility infielder like Punto.

Yes.

I came to this thread to post that Ciriaco's .414 BABIP is unsustainable, and to demonstrate that point, I fought with the Fangraphs xBABIP calculator for a while only to discover than in fact his xBABIP is an impressive .394, presumably because he's hitting a ton of grounders and turning more than his share of those grounders into infield hits. Nevertheless it seems hard to picture that in the long run he's going to be this much better than his .351 BABIP at AAA this year, and before we get too excited about his 6-for-6 steal rate lets remember he was below water at 14 for 22 in Pawtucket. In other words, what we have here offensively is a guy who has only a little bit of power, doesn't have any plate patience, strikes out a bunch, and has enough speed to be exciting but not enough to be a major offensive factor. I would be stunned if Ciriaco could manage a .700 OPS in a full season at the big league level.

Edited by PrometheusWakefield, 01 August 2012 - 11:20 AM.

[Alcohol&Overcalls]

In Ciriaco, we have a better version of Nick Punto.

At worst, he's a wash offensively and defensively with Punto, and there's no doubt he's a more dynamic threat on the basepaths.

There's a chance this is true, but it'll take this season's numbers moving forward as his true talent level, and not simply an age-27 career year. I don't think that's likely.

His BABIP at AAA was .351, and he's at .414 for the big club, so there's a fair amount of bloat that probably isn't repeatable in those numbers (his career BABIP is .311, it's not like he's shown this as a skill to this point). His minor league DT for 2012 comes out to .292/.308/.394, which would be quite serviceable in the Punto role (or even starting at SS), but that season is a total outlier for him - it's the first time he's slugged over .400 (untranslated) outside of the homer-happy Cal league, and he's consistently been an OBP black hole ... the power surge has to be for real to make it all work. His age-adjusted career DT is much closer to a .500 OPS than .700.

Punto might not be millions of dollars more useful than Ciriaco, but there's very little reason to think Ciriaco is a "better" Punto.

Edited by Alcohol&Overcalls, 01 August 2012 - 11:33 AM.

[Sprowl]

Huh? His O-Swing % is 50.8%, which is 5% higher than the worst qualified offender, Josh Hamilton. He sees 3.14 pitches per plate appearance, which would put him 2nd to last in all of MLB among players with 100 plate appearances. I like Ciriaco, but patient he is not.

Something seems off about that out-of-zone swing%. Here is the link to Ciriaco's swing and take charts, and it doesn't look to me like he chases all that much. In a nutshell, most pitchers are throwing him strikes (because he has so little power), and he's swinging or bunting at a lot of them, and usually making contact with line drives or grounders. I'm not sure how to reconcile those with your data.

[JimD]

All I know is, I want him starting every one of the games left against the MFY's.

[Phenom]

He is out of options and likely to be claimed if the Sox attempt to send him down.

Well, then I definitely hope the Sox DFA Punto. Recognize the idiocy of giving a marginal utility player a multi-year contract, and move on. Maybe you get lucky, and a team like Oakland claims Punto in hope he can provide "veteran leadership" and defensive stability at 3B or SS.

It is true there's a SSS with Ciriaco, but there's little doubt he's helped the Red Sox win more this season than Punto has. Stick with the hottest hand. Even when Ciriaco returns to earth, there likely isn't going to be much of a tangible downgrade between he and Punto (plus, again, Ciriaco is better on the bases, which is a useful skill to have on your bench down the stretch).

Edited by Phenom, 01 August 2012 - 11:54 AM.

[The Gray Eagle]

He's never going to be a very good offensive player. But right now he's hot and he's covering a lot of ground at SS. IMO he should start at SS regularly until his OBP drops under .300, whether that's 5 days from now or 3 weeks from now. After that, he'll still be a useful utility IF/PR.

What's great about him is that compared to most of the rest of the team he seems young, fast, energetic, eager and happy to be here. And he shows good range in the field. What's not so great is the fact that he just never walks. For the rest of the year, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go around .280/.290/.350 the rest of the way, with good defense and baserunning. That's a low OBP, but it's about the same we'd get from Aviles, with less power but IMO better defense and baserunning. (Aviles isn't bad at defense or baserunning, but from the little I've seen so far of Ciriaco I think he's better.)

It'd be great if the Sox would encourage him to take more pitches and try to work for more walks, but the team doesn't seem to be interested in that sort of approach anymore, judging by the way the walks have plummeted this year.

After 9/1, with Ciriaco, Aviles, Punto, Iglesias, Kalish, Gomez and Nava all presumably on the roster, you could basically rotate your SS through the game-- PH for the SS whenever you're behind or tied, and then bring in another one who is pretty good or better defensively, and then PH for him if needed. Repeat up to four times per game. Might be a good way to get some offense from the position without giving up defense.

[JakeRae]

We have a guy who has struck out about 17% of the time in his AAA career, walked about 2% of the time, and has an ISO around .100. Once the BABIP regresses to the mean, he is exactly the hitter that his ZiPS® line predicts he will be. 2.2% walk rate, 18.5% strikeout rate, BABIP of .311 and a .260/.274/.351 line. ZiPS® is not a perfect tool, but in this case, Ciriaco is doing absolutely nothing except getting more hits when he puts the ball in play to make us think he has developed any new offensive skills. His defensive value is enough to make him pretty much the exact definition of a replacement level player as a middle infielder.

Punto, who is having a terrible season by his standards, is a replacement level player right now but has shown the ability to be significantly better than that (significantly is relative to his role as a utility infielder). I can't imagine why we would cut Punto and keep Ciriaco unless the organization feels that Punto has lost the skills that caused them to offer him his contract this offseason. Despite the flaws of Aviles, neither player is close to good enough to challenge him for playing time, even against RHP. We should all feel incredibly fortunate that Ciriaco has done what he has done so far, but we shouldn't get hasty and start assuming he is actually a MLB caliber player. When the hits stop dropping, Ciriaco is going to revert to being a really bad offensive player who plays slightly above average defense.

[Lose Remerswaal]

He's my first Spring Training binky to make the team and actually perform well, that's what he is.

And he's not as good a fielder as Punto is (the Tigers never should have gotten that 1st man on base in the 3rd inning last night, but PC double-clutched), but he's a better hitter, with this unsustainable BABIP or after it goes back down to something more realistic.

I think the fact that he *is* starting every game, while Punto sits on the bench tells us something about the plan once they need to make room on the 25 man roster. And hell, that move might be Kalish back to AAA, as we still have 4 OFs on the roster (don't forget Nava), and both Punto and Ciriaco can play a little OF if need be.

[Dogman2]

He's my first Spring Training binky to make the team and actually perform well, that's what he is.

And he's not as good a fielder as Punto is (the Tigers never should have gotten that 1st man on base in the 3rd inning last night, but PC double-clutched), but he's a better hitter, with this unsustainable BABIP or after it goes back down to something more realistic.

I think the fact that he *is* starting every game, while Punto sits on the bench tells us something about the plan once they need to make room on the 25 man roster. And hell, that move might be Kalish back to AAA, as we still have 4 OFs on the roster (don't forget Nava), and both Punto and Ciriaco can play a little OF if need be.

You are using one example to definitively state he isn't as good a fielder as Punto? Fielders double clutch all the time. In this case, in the rain and with Infante running, it cost him. That isn't reason to make your statement.

[Lose Remerswaal]

You are using one example to definitively state he isn't as good a fielder as Punto? Fielders double clutch all the time. In this case, in the rain and with Infante running, it cost him. That isn't reason to make your statement.

I'm using the most recent example. His seeming refusal to shovel the ball to the 2nd baseman on double plays (instead, running to the bag and throwing to first) suggests there may be some jitters there on that feed.

And in general, Punto is a pretty good defensive utility player. We've seen Ciriaco make some nice plays (dive in the hole a couple days ago with the throw to second base), but we have a ton of history with Punto that suggests he's above average defensively.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

Ciriaco is actually a pretty comparable player to Iglesias with moderately worse defense and a bit more pop. Ciriaco's contribution comes in the fact that he can play multiple positions, but I think you're getting a preview of what Iglesias would look like in the majors when he matures offensively.

Aviles is finally showing the strains of being a full time player for the first time in years. He seems to be wearing down along with being dinged up, but I think he has the ability to be an above-average MLB SS. His power has been a big bonus and his crappy .obp seems to be a direct result of overexposure. His career numbers show a much more patient hitter. At the onset of the season (or more specifically when Scutaro was traded, the real question was if Aviles can handle the defense as an everyday SS... I think he has been decent to above-average defensively. If and when he comes back he should be rested/re-charged and I expect to see more of the type of player we saw for the first 2 months of the season. Aviles is superior to Ciriaco and Punto and at this point much superior to Iglesias.

Ciriaco should work on playing some outfield in the winter and expect to come into camp as a supersub next season.

Edited by Carl Everetts Therapist, 02 August 2012 - 07:38 AM.

[JakeRae]

Ciriaco is actually a pretty comparable player to Iglesias with moderately worse defense and a bit more pop. Ciriaco's contribution comes in the fact that he can play multiple positions, but I think you're getting a preview of what Iglesias would look like in the majors when he matures offensively.

Aviles is finally showing the strains of being a full time player for the first time in years. He seems to be wearing down along with being dinged up, but I think he has the ability to be an above-average MLB SS. His power has been a big bonus and his crappy .obp seems to be a direct result of overexposure. His career numbers show a much more patient hitter. At the onset of the season (or more specifically when Scutaro was traded, the real question was if Aviles can handle the defense as an everyday SS... I think he has been decent to above-average defensively. If and when he comes back he should be rested/re-charged and I expect to see more of the type of player we saw for the first 2 months of the season. Aviles is superior to Ciriaco and Punto and at this point much superior to Iglesias.

Ciriaco should work on playing some outfield in the winter and expect to come into camp as a supersub next season.

They really aren't that similar. Iglesias, in his 3 years in the high minors (ignoring low minor stats as they are all rehab related) has gone from a 20.8 K% to 15.0% to 11.1%. (Year 1 is in AA, the next two AAA.) His walk rate has gone from 3.4% to 5.4% to 6.0%. He has absolutely no power (ISO around .033 the last two years in AAA) but has generational defense. If you compare these numbers to those for Ciriaco, you see a couple things that you pointed out, like the power difference, but several factors you ignore. First, Iglesias is getting better. The K changes are the most dramatic, but he's shown peripheral improvement in his strikeout and walk numbers in each season so far. Second, he walks about 3-4 times as frequently as Ciriaco. It would be nice to see his walk rate go up more, but 6% is not a terrible walk rate. Third, he is rapidly learning how to not strike out against advanced pitching. Ciriaco never learned this skill.

And, most importantly, you are dramatically understating the defensive difference. Iglesias is a generational defender. Pretty much every scout who has seen him has ranked him as a 75 or 80 defensively with most leaning toward the latter. There are a maximum of a handful of guys in baseball at any given point in time with an 80 score for any given tool. In contrast, while I haven't seen a professional grade Ciriaco's defense, it seems to fall squarely in the 50-60 range, probably a 55.

[reggiecleveland]

I will go as far to say we have a career minor leaguer on a hot streak. I agree with hose that say spending dough on bench guy is silly there area lot of guys who will bust their ass in the field and not hit. Sometimes you get lucky like the Cards last year with Punto and the Sox so far with Pedro C.

[Eric Van]

Ciriaco's Davenport Peak (Age-Adjusted) Translations, annually:

.208, .222., .200, .232, .232, .203, .189, = career .215; acquired by Red Sox, .253.

Given that he also had a great ST and he looks like he has good bat speed, I don't believe that all of the improvement can be written off as random variation. He's .021 better than his previous best, which was only .017 better than his mean.

If he's actually .021 better than before, that would put him at .236. The average MLB starting SS is about .246.

I think there's reason to believe he's had a breakthrough and has made himself into a legitimate backup MLB MI, and maybe a very good one who could start at SS for a bad team (or for a good team without killing them). I don't think that BV starting him over Punto is just riding the hot hand; he may well be the better player now.

[TomRicardo]

Ciriaco is a perfect example of why Ben Cherington is not a major league GM. He wasted money on Punto when he easily could replace that production with AAAA player.

[Cellar-Door]

Ciriaco is a perfect example of why Ben Cherington is not a major league GM. He wasted money on Punto when he easily could replace that production with AAAA player.

Yes why acquire consistent major leaguers when you can hope to catch lightning in a bottle and have a guy who is seen by the entire league as AAA roster filler absolutely obliterate his career numbers.

Edit- sarcasm aside, just because something unlikely happens (in this case Ciriaco miraculously overturning nearly a decade of being bad at playing baseball) doesn't mean you should have made a plan that depended on said unlikely event.

ALSO: Doesn't the fact that Cherington picked him up off the scrapheap indicate he possibly saw some tiny chance of potential, and took a flier on it for which he should be credited?

Edited by Cellar-Door, 05 August 2012 - 09:32 PM.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Yes why acquire consistent major leaguers when you can hope to catch lightning in a bottle and have a guy who is seen by the entire league as AAA roster filler absolutely obliterate his career numbers.

I can't even believe you called someone who put up a 76 OPS+ over the almost 3000 PA preceding his age-33 season a consistent major leaguer.

Punto is a consistent replacement-level player, not someone worthy of a $3.5MM/2 year contract. This shouldn't even be up for discussion.

[roundegotrip]

No, his offense doesn't blow anyone away, but between 2004 and 2011 he did rack up 13.1 WAR, or about 1.64 wins per season. Last season for the Cardinals he was worth 1.8 over 63 games, so there was certainly some rational basis to expect he would be a little bit above average while providing defensive flexibility off the bench for 1.5 million dollars.

Edited by roundegotrip, 05 August 2012 - 09:58 PM.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Sigh -- over-reliance on "WAR" is exactly why fangraphs is over-rated. As we should all know from Lackey 2011, WAR is a glorified counting stat.

Baseball Reference has Punto rated at 10.3 WAR, of which far more than half (6.3) came from defense played in his four peaks seasons from 2005-2008 (ages 27-30), when he was averaging 124 games per season.

Not now, and not ever, was there any reason to expect Punto to be anything other than a 33-year old replacement-level utility infielder.

[Cellar-Door]

I can't even believe you called someone who put up a 76 OPS+ over the almost 3000 PA preceding his age-33 season a consistent major leaguer.

Punto is a consistent replacement-level player, not someone worthy of a $3.5MM/2 year contract. This shouldn't even be up for discussion.

He's a major leaguer. For the role of backup at 3-4 positions he has proven himself capable of doing the job well on defense and not being an absolute black hole on offense (no power but can at least get on base). I'm not arguing about whether his contract is appropriate, since that has been flogged to death in other threads. The point is coming into this year Nick Punto was a far better bet to be a serviceable utility guy at 2B, SS and 3B at the major league level than Pedro Ciriaco and there should be no debate about that considering Ciriaco had a AAA career OPS worse than Punto's majors OPS.

[TomRicardo]

He's a major leaguer. For the role of backup at 3-4 positions he has proven himself capable of doing the job well on defense and not being an absolute black hole on offense (no power but can at least get on base). I'm not arguing about whether his contract is appropriate, since that has been flogged to death in other threads. The point is coming into this year Nick Punto was a far better bet to be a serviceable utility guy at 2B, SS and 3B at the major league level than Pedro Ciriaco and there should be no debate about that considering Ciriaco had a AAA career OPS worse than Punto's majors OPS.

Nick Punto is a black hole at the plate. Outside of last year he has been for years. His defense is not that good as well. AAA is literally lined with guys with comparable skills.

There is absolutely no way to defend Nick Punto getting multi yea multi million dollar contract.

[Eric Van]

I had no problem with picking up Punto per se; the problem was that the only reason they needed him was that they traded Jed Lowrie for Mark Melancon.

Cherington actually did a great job with non-roster invitees: Padilla, Ciriaco, Gomez, and, yes, even Cook.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Punto was signed for his defensive versatility (and all reasonable defensive systems project as being fairly good at that role); folks who continue to cite his OPS are completely missing the point. His role is to sit on the bench and to be that 25th man who is fine with such a role.

His contract represents 0.86% of the Red Sox '12 payroll. He makes less than Jose Iglesias. He makes 25% of what the team will pay Bobby Jenks; 9% of what they'll pay John lackey.

Continuing to complain about such a minor part of the team is really a waste of time. who cares. It's so inconsequential; and his contract doesn't prevent the Sox from anything.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Punto was signed for his defensive versatility (and all reasonable defensive systems project as being fairly good at that role); folks who continue to cite his OPS are completely missing the point. His role is to sit on the bench and to be that 25th man who is fine with such a role.

It's the principle. Ciriaco would have done that job just fine, and so would any number of solid defensive utility players shuttling around AAA.

Smart teams don't sign known mediocrities to multi-year deals to be utility infielders. When they acquire a veteran to play backup infielder, it's someone like Mueller, Bellhorn, or Graffanino instead.

[yecul]

Punto represents a (potential) systemic issue. It is not about his significance in a bubble. Look at the events that led to his presence on the team:

- evaluation of Punto
- evaluation of Lowrie
- evaluation of other utility options
- evaluation of Melancon
- evaluation of other available pitchers (the pen was good without both Melancon and Bailey -- not to say you shouldn't acquire talent, but it does show that trading assets for relievers is a tough sell)
- evaluation of Lowrie
- evaluation of the value of Punto's "clubhouse presence"

This is about a larger narrative. It's like Bobby V or a single player. If you focus in on a tree and it looks ok or at least not a problem, then you might conclude the forest is doing ok. Pan back and take a look. Even if you disagree with some of the above points I think they are all on the table for consideration in the decision that led to Punto being on this team.


Anyway, about Ciriaco, I can only conclude that this is real. When the team performs badly or a player performs badly I generally write it off to bad luck. When a player does well the only possible reason is that it's real.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Ciriaco's Davenport Peak (Age-Adjusted) Translations, annually:

.208, .222., .200, .232, .232, .203, .189, = career .215; acquired by Red Sox, .253.

Given that he also had a great ST and he looks like he has good bat speed, I don't believe that all of the improvement can be written off as random variation. He's .021 better than his previous best, which was only .017 better than his mean.

If he's actually .021 better than before, that would put him at .236. The average MLB starting SS is about .246.

I think there's reason to believe he's had a breakthrough and has made himself into a legitimate backup MLB MI, and maybe a very good one who could start at SS for a bad team (or for a good team without killing them). I don't think that BV starting him over Punto is just riding the hot hand; he may well be the better player now.

When a guy with a .649 OPS in over 1000 ABs in AAA suddenly puts up an .814 OPS in 79 PA in the majors, I'm fairly comfortable in calling that an unexpected hot streak that can't be expected to last. I highly doubt Ciriaco's suddenly found a new level of performance in the majors this year, unless we're either going to ignore SSS from now on or his supplier got the good stuff.

[Rudy Pemberton]

It's the principle. Ciriaco would have done that job just fine, and so would any number of solid defensive utility players shuttling around AAA.

Smart teams don't sign known mediocrities to multi-year deals to be utility infielders. When they acquire a veteran to play backup infielder, it's someone like Mueller, Bellhorn, or Graffanino instead.

Were the Sox smart when they gave Alex Cora multi-year deal? Frankly, there is nothing in Ciriaco's minor league performance to suggest he would be a good solid utility player, and when his BABIP comes back to reality, he will go back to being a terrible player. He has 1 BB, 14 K (compared to Punto's 17 / 28). A .403 BABIP isn't sustainable.

Furthermore, Mueller, Bellhorn, and Graffanino were not back up infielders on the Sox; and the trade of Lowrie was really unrelated to acquiring Punto, although I do agree that the misevaluation of talent is a major issue. I just think that guys like Shoppach, Padilla, Punto are really unimportant, the focus should be on the guys like Cameron, Jenks, Crawford, Lackey, etc. and Reddick, Lowrie, Melancon. Players that cost a lot of resources, in money or talent. Punto doesn't apply, the worst case is that he makes $1M more than some scrub like Ciriaco.

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 06 August 2012 - 09:14 AM.

[yecul]

The focus should be on guys like Shoppach, Padilla, PUnto, Cameron, Jenks, Lackey, Reddick, Lowrie, Melbancon, Lester, Beckett, etc.

Again, acquiring Punto isn't a big deal. It's just stupid and a waste. A small waste in a relative monetary sense, but locking up a roster spot for two years has to be considered an investment. This team bends over upside down to preserve assets -- roster spots are valuable.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Punto doesn't apply, the worst case is that he makes $1M more than some scrub like Ciriaco.

No, the worst case is that Punto can't fill in adequately when Youkilis is inevitably hurt. Which leads to a personnel situation with a rookie sensation the manager can't manage. Which leads to an all-star talent traded for a minor-league pitcher before hitting a .900 OPS for his new team over a span when the old team's rookie sensation and DH successively can't take the field.

And no, I don't think Cora was a particularly good signing for a 2-year deal, although he had rumored sign-stealing skills that may have made his original acquisition in trade justifiable.

[Cellar-Door]

Nick Punto is a black hole at the plate. Outside of last year he has been for years. His defense is not that good as well. AAA is literally lined with guys with comparable skills.

There is absolutely no way to defend Nick Punto getting multi yea multi million dollar contract.

Thank you for that lovely analysis of his defensive skills that appears to be based on a blatant disregard for any and all evidence available.
As to at the plate, he has no power at all, but his .324 career OBP is more than acceptable for a backup. There are not a ton of AAA guys available who can get on base and defend well at 2B, SS, and 3B, it's the reason Nick Punto has a 12 year career, guys who can defend SS and 3B tend to either suck at getting on base (Ciriaco), or have a similar lack of power.
The question we are debating isn't whether Punto is worth his contract, but whether it was reasonable to assume they could have gotten a better player elsewhere for less, I haven't seen anyone coming forward with someone in the system or who was available as a FA who could reasonably be expected to fill the role better.

[Cellar-Door]

No, the worst case is that Punto can't fill in adequately when Youkilis is inevitably hurt. Which leads to a personnel situation with a rookie sensation the manager can't manage. Which leads to an all-star talent traded for a minor-league pitcher before hitting a .900 OPS for his new team over a span when the old team's rookie sensation and DH successively can't take the field.

WMB got called up because he was absolutely destroying minor league pitching, considering that in the month leading up to his trade Youk was getting solidly outhit by Punto (.360 higher OPS in June) Youks trade had little to nothing to do with Punto, and everything to do with WMB being one of our best prospects, and the fact that Booby V and Youk are both huge assholes and hate each other.

[JakeRae]

Ciriaco's Davenport Peak (Age-Adjusted) Translations, annually:

.208, .222., .200, .232, .232, .203, .189, = career .215; acquired by Red Sox, .253.

Given that he also had a great ST and he looks like he has good bat speed, I don't believe that all of the improvement can be written off as random variation. He's .021 better than his previous best, which was only .017 better than his mean.

If he's actually .021 better than before, that would put him at .236. The average MLB starting SS is about .246.

I think there's reason to believe he's had a breakthrough and has made himself into a legitimate backup MLB MI, and maybe a very good one who could start at SS for a bad team (or for a good team without killing them). I don't think that BV starting him over Punto is just riding the hot hand; he may well be the better player now.

But, the only thing that's changed this year is his BABIP. Looking at his AAA line, his walk percentage is in line with his AAA career, his strikeout rate is in line with his career and is on the high end of that spectrum. His ISO is perfectly in line with his career norms. I don't know how to get a batted ball profile for a minor league hitter anymore, so I can't dig into this any deeper, but if Ciriaco had actually improved, wouldn't we expect it to manifest itself in something, anything, other than the notoriously volatile BABIP? Looking at his MLE misses the point that his real performance hasn't changed at all.

His MLB batted ball profile does look like that of someone with a BABIP skill. But, it's still far too small of a sample size to treat those numbers as meaningful. Frequently, BABIP hot streaks are not products of luck, in the classical sense, but of clumping line drives. Ciriaco hasn't been lucky so far, but he is certainly performing in a manner that doesn't appear to be at all sustainable based on his career history.

[Eric Van]

When a guy with a .649 OPS in over 1000 ABs in AAA suddenly puts up an .814 OPS in 79 PA in the majors, I'm fairly comfortable in calling that an unexpected hot streak that can't be expected to last. I highly doubt Ciriaco's suddenly found a new level of performance in the majors this year, unless we're either going to ignore SSS from now on or his supplier got the good stuff.

But, the only thing that's changed this year is his BABIP. Looking at his AAA line, his walk percentage is in line with his AAA career, his strikeout rate is in line with his career and is on the high end of that spectrum. His ISO is perfectly in line with his career norms. I don't know how to get a batted ball profile for a minor league hitter anymore, so I can't dig into this any deeper, but if Ciriaco had actually improved, wouldn't we expect it to manifest itself in something, anything, other than the notoriously volatile BABIP? Looking at his MLE misses the point that his real performance hasn't changed at all.

His MLB batted ball profile does look like that of someone with a BABIP skill. But, it's still far too small of a sample size to treat those numbers as meaningful. Frequently, BABIP hot streaks are not products of luck, in the classical sense, but of clumping line drives. Ciriaco hasn't been lucky so far, but he is certainly performing in a manner that doesn't appear to be at all sustainable based on his career history.

In the analysis of his career, his 2012 is largely based on what he did in Pawtucket before his recall.

And the above are essentially straw-man arguments. I'm not saying that he's a good hitter or that the results we've seen so far in MLB aren't mostly luck; I'm saying that he's been so good this year, sustained over a sufficient sample size, that the best explanation includes some modest real improvement, even after taking out the BABIP luck. And that this leaves him as an adequate hitter, maybe even a good hitter, for a backup SS. Which is you know, a pretty low bar for an MLB player.

An adjustment to swing mechanics, pure and simple, that produced better bat speed -- that would not be expected to change K rate or BB rate, it would just result in more line drives, and harder ground balls and fly balls. Watching him, given his bat speed, I find it hard to believe his career BABIP was so low; something a bit better seems more in line with the skills you can see. Boost that career BABIP and you get a .235 sort of hitter, not .215. That's all. Marginally OK instead of inept.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

His BABIP is .403 this year. That's such a huge distance away from typical BABIP figures that I'm yet to be convinced that there's any "real" improvement like the ones you mention. No one can sustain such a figure long-term, and that includes Ciriaco.

I'd love to see what kind of line he'd put up with typical BABIP luck.

[joe dokes]

Ciriaco is another guy Valentine ID'd in spring training who might provide some once-through-the-league lightning in a bottle. But his 1000 minor league PA's suggest that he's not likely to be much more than that.

Some baseball "truisms," like "walks clog the bases" have been laid to waste. But some others still hold water for me:

1. Don't trade anything of value for a backup catcher.
2. Don't sign utility IFs who will never be starters to multi-year contracts.

So, number 2 applies to Punto, whatever his perceived value was.

I had no problem with picking up Punto per se; the problem was that the only reason they needed him was that they traded Jed Lowrie for Mark Melancon.

Really? What wasJed Lowrie's value: he plays a critical position but can't be counted on, other than to miss large chunks of season. While absence of an important player hurts a team, uncertainty about that player's availability hurts almost as much. Lowrie was the epitome of uncertainty.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Lowrie is also badly injured, yet again. Might return by the end of the month, might now. Still has never played more than 88 games in a season. As Dokes says, he cannot be counted upon.

[Rudy Pemberton]

His BABIP is .403 this year. That's such a huge distance away from typical BABIP figures that I'm yet to be convinced that there's any "real" improvement like the ones you mention. No one can sustain such a figure long-term, and that includes Ciriaco.

I'd love to see what kind of line he'd put up with typical BABIP luck.

If he had a league average BABIP,he'd have lost 7 hits, let's assume they were all singles...that would put him at 247 / 253 / 377. (just quick and dirty; doesn't take into account LD%, etc.)

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

If he had a league average BABIP,he'd have lost 7 hits, let's assume they were all singles...that would put him at 247 / 253 / 377. (just quick and dirty; doesn't take into account LD%, etc.)

Soo......that's pretty terrible, no? If his current success is entirely BABIP-driven (and given the ridiculous 403 figure it almost has to be) then when he regresses he's not going to be a very good player at all.

It's pretty crazy that he's got 79 PA so far this year and has walked exactly once. In 119 career major league PA he's walked twice.

[TomRicardo]

Thank you for that lovely analysis of his defensive skills that appears to be based on a blatant disregard for any and all evidence available. As to at the plate, he has no power at all, but his .324 career OBP is more than acceptable for a backup. There are not a ton of AAA guys available who can get on base and defend well at 2B, SS, and 3B, it's the reason Nick Punto has a 12 year career, guys who can defend SS and 3B tend to either suck at getting on base (Ciriaco), or have a similar lack of power. The question we are debating isn't whether Punto is worth his contract, but whether it was reasonable to assume they could have gotten a better player elsewhere for less, I haven't seen anyone coming forward with someone in the system or who was available as a FA who could reasonably be expected to fill the role better.

Wait, so you aren't arguing Nick Punto isn't worth his contract but you are trying to say there was no one even close to comparable so we overpaid for the chance to have Nick Punto be our 25th man..

Off the top of my head better than Nick Punto for less would include Omar Vizquel, Ronny Cedeno, and debatably Cesar Izturis. You know what all three of those players in Punto's talent level have in common? They all signed for minor league contracts.

If you can find me a worse contract for a bench middle infielder signed last offseason, I would shocked.

[Bucknahs Bum Ankle]

Soo......that's pretty terrible, no? If his current success is entirely BABIP-driven (and given the ridiculous 403 figure it almost has to be) then when he regresses he's not going to be a very good player at all.

It's pretty crazy that he's got 79 PA so far this year and has walked exactly once. In 119 career major league PA he's walked twice.

No one expects that Ciriaco will continue to be anywhere near this good, but it's reasonable to expect him to have somewhat better than league average BABIP given his speed. His BABIP with Pawtucket was .351 in 289 PA this year and is .319 in 3234 minor league PAs. Again he's not going to be very good, but as a backup middle infielder he's likely to be more than adequate.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Wait, so you aren't arguing Nick Punto isn't worth his contract but you are trying to say there was no one even close to comparable so we overpaid for the chance to have Nick Punto be our 25th man..

Off the top of my head better than Nick Punto for less would include Omar Vizquel, Ronny Cedeno, and debatably Cesar Izturis. You know what all three of those players in Punto's talent level have in common? They all signed for minor league contracts.

If you can find me a worse contract for a bench middle infielder signed last offseason, I would shocked.

Jamey Carroll: 2 years, $6.75M (245 / 332 / 292)
Ramon Santiago: 2 / $4.2M. (216 / 300 / 289)
Clint Barmes: 2 years, $10.5M (211 / 239 / 299)

John McDonald got the same deal as Punto; is having a good year but is usually awful. Bloomquist got a bit more. Izturis and Vizquel have been worse than Punto, slightly cheaper. Cedeno has been good, generally not known as a good defender though.

Nevertheless, don't think Punto was signed b/c of his bat.

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 07 August 2012 - 11:33 AM.