85 replies to this topic

[Plympton91]

To me, if they're going to move anyone it has to be Saltalamacchia. The Red Sox had among the best pitching staffs in the league for a decade with Jason Varitek as the everyday catcher. They need to get someone behind the dish who has those same qualities. The HR are flashy, but the sub-300 OBP and 1 strikeout every 3 ABs to go with obvious deficiencies on defense make him the most obvious place to start changing the direction of the team. Top all that off with the fact that he'll get a big bump in arb due to the flashy power numbers. Lavarnway is ready on offense, and can't possibly be a worse defender; it is almost a no brainer. Teams are desperate for production at the C position, let them find out how poisonous Salty appears to be to a pitching staff.

[OCD SS]

I think you're grasping at straws if you want to blame the pitching staff's collective suck on Salty.

[Rudy Pemberton]

It may be a coincidence that the team has pitched better with Shoppach, maybe not. But I think you are overstating teams desires for offense at the catching position; I think it's really secondary for most good teams. Lots of good teams have catchers who can't hit; not many have catchers who can't catch. Frankly, you aren't going to find a contender ready to change catchers midseason unless there's an injury.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I think you're grasping at straws if you want to blame the pitching staff's collective suck on Salty.

Are you saying that it's impossible for a catcher to be bad enough at the battery-mate skills to significantly affect his pitchers' performance for the worse? Or just that you don't think Salty is that bad?

[Plympton91]

It may be a coincidence that the team has pitched better with Shoppach, maybe not. But I think you are overstating teams desires for offense at the catching position; I think it's really secondary for most good teams. Lots of good teams have catchers who can't hit; not many have catchers who can't catch. Frankly, you aren't going to find a contender ready to change catchers midseason unless there's an injury.

Well, the Nationals fit that bill. The Mets as well, though their season is circling the same drain as the Red Sox.

Given that there's been no "personal catcher" situation this year, and the priors of Shoppach being a good defender and Salty not, I don't think you can dismiss the nearly 1 run per game difference in cERA without proving it is a coincidence. I'd be happy to see the evidence and change my mind.

[bosockboy]

It makes sense to move Salty because it's possible he could be non-tendered.....sadly he just doesn't have a lot of trade value though.

[Doctor G]

It makes sense to move Salty because it's possible he could be non-tendered.....sadly he just doesn't have a lot of trade value though.

he could be attractive to a team who sees him in a Mike Napoli type role.

[Doctor G]

I think you're grasping at straws if you want to blame the pitching staff's collective suck on Salty.

catchers affect game outcome more than any other position player obviously. I am sure advance scouts have a book on catchers pitch calling tendencies. Is Salty predictable particularly the first time through the opponent's order, where Red Sox pitchers are getting lit up? one possible way to determine this is to compare his rate of called third strikes versus other catchers.

Another thing that is noticeable about his performance. Where are the mound visits to straighten out a pitcher who is missing location or shaking him off? This is an important part of the job. Perhaps he is either intimidated or is not confident of his ability to suggest mechanical adjustments.

It is possible Salty would be better off in a situation with a younger less experienced pitching staff.

Edited by Doctor G, 28 July 2012 - 12:22 AM.

[OCD SS]

Are you saying that it's impossible for a catcher to be bad enough at the battery-mate skills to significantly affect his pitchers' performance for the worse? Or just that you don't think Salty is that bad?

I'm saying that the fault lies with the pitchers; trading Salty isn't going to miraculously fix Lester and Beckett.

Given that there's been no "personal catcher" situation this year, and the priors of Shoppach being a good defender and Salty not, I don't think you can dismiss the nearly 1 run per game difference in cERA without proving it is a coincidence. I'd be happy to see the evidence and change my mind.

So there's a difference between the ERA's of guys throwing to the two different catchers, one of whom has seen barely 300 defensive innings, and the onus is on everyone else to change your mind? Your personal superstition that a sample size is meaningful doesn't actually make it so.

I'm not saying Salty is any good defensively, or that a lack of skill or comfort with a battery-mate might not hinder results, but there is no way it is to degree being suggested here. You know, like pretty much every study that has every been done on CERA.

catchers affect game outcome more than any other position player obviously. I am sure advance scouts have a book on catchers pitch calling tendencies. Is Salty predictable particularly the first time through the opponent's order, where Red Sox pitchers are getting lit up? one possible way to determine this is to compare his rate of called third strikes versus other catchers.

Another thing that is noticeable about his performance. Where are the mound visits to straighten out a pitcher who is missing location or shaking him off? This is an important part of the job. Perhaps he is either intimidated or is not confident of his ability to suggest mechanical adjustments.

Seriously? Catcher are not magic. These things that are ultimately on the fucking pitcher. You're trying to parse rare events that have many different possible input variables with varying levels of influence and then ascribe the failure of the guy throwing the ball to the guy who catches it.

If you want to talk about trading Salty, fine. But given the state of catching in the league and the Red Sox system I'd be very surprised if Salty isn't the starting catcher next year.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I just don't see how the Sox can give Salty 6-7M next year when they have Lavarnway, given all the payroll issues. While we may not have definitive proof, based on how teams manage the catching position, it seems like there is some belief that catchers can have a big effect on the performance of the staff. It seems likely that the pitchers are underperforming and Salty isn't helping. That the starters seem so poorly prepared makes me wonder about how they are planning for games; who is involved, to what extent, and how it compares to prior years.

Regarding Beckett, all it takes is one team that thinks they can fix him, thinks he just needs a change of scenery, or gets desperate. Lots of worse pitchers (think Kazmir and the like) have been moved in similar situations. Theres enough upside for someone to take a shot (and there's also enough upside for the Sox to do nothing, sadly).

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 28 July 2012 - 08:46 AM.

[Plympton91]

Seriously? Catcher are not magic. These things that are ultimately on the fucking pitcher. You're trying to parse rare events that have many different possible input variables with varying levels of influence and then ascribe the failure of the guy throwing the ball to the guy who catches it.

If you want to talk about trading Salty, fine. But given the state of catching in the league and the Red Sox system I'd be very surprised if Salty isn't the starting catcher next year.

Just asking as I have no idea: Did you ever pitch, or catch, at a level higher than little league? Because, I'd be shocked if anyone who had done so would make such a statement. I understand that the general tendency of boards such as this one is to discount the opinions of those who actually play the game in favor of running regressions of endogenous variables on other endogenous variables, but I tend to not do that.

If the usage of Salty and Shoppach this year were determined solely the handedness of the opposing starting pitcher, then, yes, 300 innings in which the cERA diverged so dramatically would be reasonable evidence of an effect, though you would have to do some other cuts to be sure -- even though the Red Sox catcher usage was random, it could be that better hitting teams also randomly have more lefthanded starters, or that other teams happened to start lefthanders more often when our worst pitchers were starting, so you'd want to check that.

You could then couple that with the knowledge that while the players were running the team last year, several pitchers demanded to throw to Varitek rather than Salty despite the obvious platoon advantage on offense. Moreover, we know that the Rangers had considered moving Salty out from behind the plate entirely. Finally, stories appeared this spring indicating that Valentine may have favored keeping Lavarnway. In a Beyesian approach, that information from on-field participants and expert baseball executives can be used to strengthen your prior distribution, adding to the significance of this year's frequentist statistical result.

Further, to pick up on another point made above, it seems to me that the Red Sox give up runs in bunches and then have several good innings after that. Is that because Salty is particularly poor at making mid-inning adjustments to pitch calling or pitchers flaws? Thus, the pitcher has to get through the whole inning, then Salty goes in the dugout and gets told how to adjust by the pitching coach, allowing success for a few innings, until the opposing team picks up on Salty's new pattern?

[Toe Nash]

The CW of sabermetrics as I understand it is not that there's no such skills as "calling the game" and other aspects of defense for a catcher. The problem is that it's very hard to separate them out from the ability of the pitcher and most studies haven't shown any statistical significance between different catchers when catching the same pitchers.

There's also a difference between "game calling" and preparation and other defensive aspects like pitch framing, blocking wild pitches, and of course throwing out baserunners. Is it not still true that some teams call pitches from the bench, particularly for young catchers? This would seem to suggest that pitch calling is somewhat overrated, since if a guy was terrible at it you could just have the pitching coach do it.

MLB teams may have super-advanced metrics that show how good a particular catcher is at these things, but we're not privy to them. They likely rely on scouting as well. Unfortunately unless you're able to have an in-depth discussion with McClure et al, we don't really know just how good or bad Salty is at pitch-calling (and the Red Sox' metrics and scouts may be wrong, too) and how much of it is just the pitchers not executing. They have thought enough of him to work him into the starting job when there were other supposedly better defenders available and two different pitching coaches and managers haven't said anything bad about him, so that's in his favor.

[czar]

It makes sense to move Salty because it's possible he could be non-tendered.....sadly he just doesn't have a lot of trade value though.

I just don't see how the Sox can give Salty 6-7M next year when they have Lavarnway, given all the payroll issues.

You guys are nuts if you think the Sox will just non-tender someone who is on pace for a 3+ fWAR. That would make him almost a $15 million player.

And what gives you the idea that he doesn't have a lot of trade value? Just because Buster Olney isn't tweeting "HEARD THIS: NATS TO GIVE UP TOP 5 PROSPECTS FOR GUY WHOSE NAME I CAN'T SPELL"?

Just asking as I have no idea: Did you ever pitch, or catch, at a level higher than little league? Because, I'd be shocked if anyone who had done so would make such a statement. I understand that the general tendency of boards such as this one is to discount the opinions of those who actually play the game in favor of running regressions of endogenous variables on other endogenous variables, but I tend to not do that.

I pitched and caught in high school and pitched in college. IME, a catcher makes more of a difference than "zero difference" but it's really quite incorrect to assume that a catcher could cause the suck that has been the Sox rotation this year. And I think that lines up with what people here and in the industry probably think.

People will show stats that say catchers make some difference (pitch framing, blocking balls, etc.) in areas that are not *traditionally* quantified but that, by and large, they are a similar pool of professional players who wouldn't have gotten past A ball if they were so deficient in these fundamental traits. Of course, other people will play the "yeah, but have you ever played?" card; conveniently ignoring the fact that the people most prone to going by their eyes/experience and not the stats (e.g. Bobby Valentine and/or the players themselves) are most susceptible to overreacting to "he calls an awful game and *never* stops my wild pitches!" and yet they still haven't forced out a supposedly terrible catcher.

If the usage of Salty and Shoppach this year were determined solely the handedness of the opposing starting pitcher, then, yes, 300 innings in which the cERA diverged so dramatically would be reasonable evidence of an effect, though you would have to do some other cuts to be sure -- even though the Red Sox catcher usage was random, it could be that better hitting teams also randomly have more lefthanded starters, or that other teams happened to start lefthanders more often when our worst pitchers were starting, so you'd want to check that.

Didn't BBTN essentially prove that cERA was a pretty meaningless stat a few years ago?

You could then couple that with the knowledge that while the players were running the team last year, several pitchers demanded to throw to Varitek rather than Salty despite the obvious platoon advantage on offense. Moreover, we know that the Rangers had considered moving Salty out from behind the plate entirely. Finally, stories appeared this spring indicating that Valentine may have favored keeping Lavarnway.

Prove statements 1 and 3 (I don't particularly care about 2). In fact, IIRC, Buchholz said he enjoyed pitching to Salty last year. And there were published reports that Valentine wanted to keep Lavarnway over Salty? The same Ryan Lavarnway who (some) scouts have clamored to move out from behind the dish for years now?

Further, to pick up on another point made above, it seems to me that the Red Sox give up runs in bunches and then have several good innings after that. Is that because Salty is particularly poor at making mid-inning adjustments to pitch calling or pitchers flaws? Thus, the pitcher has to get through the whole inning, then Salty goes in the dugout and gets told how to adjust by the pitching coach, allowing success for a few innings, until the opposing team picks up on Salty's new pattern?

Again, if this was true, why wouldn't the team just cut out this "fireside chat with Bob McClure," tell Salty he sucks at calling pitches, and then call the pitches from the dugout like a lot of teams with rookie catchers/pitchers tend to do?

Or, if pitchers noticed this, why don't they just shake off Salty; essentially calling their own game (this happens a ton in HS/college, FWIW, going back to your first "did you play?" premise).

All of these "Salty is a huge defensive detriment to this team" arguments require teams to have no ability to circumvent his pitch calls when, in reality, there are multiple steps along the way where someone else can take charge. So really, is the crux of your argument "Salty sucks at pitch calling AND the pitchers/coaching staff are too dumb to notice it?"

Edited by czar, 28 July 2012 - 10:32 AM.

[OCD SS]

Just asking as I have no idea: Did you ever pitch, or catch, at a level higher than little league? Because, I'd be shocked if anyone who had done so would make such a statement. I understand that the general tendency of boards such as this one is to discount the opinions of those who actually play the game in favor of running regressions of endogenous variables on other endogenous variables, but I tend to not do that.

I caught in little league but never above, and I never "run regressions of endogenous variables on other endogenous variables." But I think it's fantastic that you're able to pull out the "I played the game argument" as a justification for your beliefs. I presume you ran the pitching staff on your high school, college, penitentiary, or seminary team?

My argument is not that Salty is a good catcher, it is that we cannot assign the issues of this pitching staff only to him, and certainly not the extent implied by the difference between his and Shoppach's cERA. 300 innings is not enough to parse the difference between the pitcher grooving balls, bad framing, and a host of other issues that we normally look to coaches to solve. I am willing to bet that if Shop took over the staff it's performance would not improve by the difference.

[Savin Hillbilly]

My argument is not that Salty is a good catcher, it is that we cannot assign the issues of this pitching staff only to him

Straw man alert--has anybody suggested that this is the case?

[Rudy Pemberton]

You guys are nuts if you think the Sox will just non-tender someone who is on pace for a 3+ fWAR. That would make him almost a $15 million player.

This is the same data that has Aviles as being "worth" over 9M so far; Punto at 7M last year, right? If Salty is really valued that highly, shouldn't they get a ton for him? Conversely, what would it take to extend him?

[czar]

This is the same data that has Aviles as being "worth" over 9M so far; Punto at 7M last year, right? If Salty is really valued that highly, shouldn't they get a ton for him? Conversely, what would it take to extend him?

The difference being that Aviles' and Punto's values are almost solely derived from their defensive production -- something that is easily the source of most uncertainty in those estimates and something statheads have an extremely tough time quantifying.

Those same metrics have Salty as BELOW-AVERAGE defensively, so his offense from the catcher position (something we have a good grasp on quantifying) is what's driving the 3 fWAR figure.

I'm also not saying the Sox should extend him (I'd like to see if a team like the Nats will break the bank for him) but non-tendering him would be one of the worst Red Sox moves from a value-added standpoint in the last decade. And, obviously, that's saying a lot.

Edited by czar, 28 July 2012 - 10:38 AM.

[Sprowl]

The difference being that Aviles' and Punto's values are almost solely derived from their defensive production -- something that is easily the source of most uncertainty in those estimates and something statheads have an extremely tough time quantifying.

Those same metrics have Salty as BELOW-AVERAGE defensively, so his offense from the catcher position (something we have a good grasp on quantifying) is what's driving the 3 fWAR figure.

I'm also not saying the Sox should extend him (I'd like to see if a team like the Nats will break the bank for him) but non-tendering him would be one of the worst Red Sox moves from a value-added standpoint in the last decade. And, obviously, that's saying a lot.

I agree that Salty clearly has enough value to retain, and some year soon his patience may live up to its minor-league BB-rate projections. I think a Salty-Lavarnway platoon in 2013 could be well above league average in offense and solid enough on defense. Shoppach deserves to have a contender come calling for his services. It says here that Shopvac will putter into the playoffs on some other contender.

Salty's defensive capacities looked pretty good in the off-season compilations of 2011 data (see absinthe's catcher defense thread). Do we have enough data for mid-season 2012 to label him as clearly below average? Certainly his glove work has been problematic this year on wild pitches and throws to the plate, but his framing rated pretty well last year and I haven't noticed any obvious deterioration this year. It does look like Shoppach is a little better at giving pitchers a good target, and has a slightly more accurate arm, but I wouldn't be blaming this season's pitching woes on Salty first. There are so many other candidates, starting with the pitchers and including McClure-Niemann.

I'd keep Salty, Lavarnway, Gonzalez, Pedroia, Middlebrooks, Ellsbury, Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, Bard and the Killer B's. Everyone else is on offer.

[Doctor G]

I agree that Salty clearly has enough value to retain, and some year soon his patience may live up to its minor-league BB-rate projections. I think a Salty-Lavarnway platoon in 2013 could be well above league average in offense and solid enough on defense. Shoppach deserves to have a contender come calling for his services. It says here that Shopvac will putter into the playoffs on some other contender.

Salty's defensive capacities looked pretty good in the off-season compilations of 2011 data (see absinthe's catcher defense thread). Do we have enough data for mid-season 2012 to label him as clearly below average? Certainly his glove work has been problematic this year on wild pitches and throws to the plate, but his framing rated pretty well last year and I haven't noticed any obvious deterioration this year. It does look like Shoppach is a little better at giving pitchers a good target, and has a slightly more accurate arm, but I wouldn't be blaming this season's pitching woes on Salty first. There are so many other candidates, starting with the pitchers and including McClure-Niemann.

I'd keep Salty, Lavarnway, Gonzalez, Pedroia, Middlebrooks, Ellsbury, Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, Bard and the Killer B's. Everyone else is on offer.

If you promote Lavarnway, wouldn't you rather pair him with a catcher with an established defensive rep. I see salty as blocking Lavarnway, not Shoppach. It is a real big gamble to carry 2 primarily offensive catchers. Try to find a successful team that has gone with this personnel approach.

[judyb]

If you promote Lavarnway, wouldn't you rather pair him with a catcher with an established defensive rep. I see salty as blocking Lavarnway, not Shoppach. It is a real big gamble to carry 2 primarily offensive catchers. Try to find a successful team that has gone with this personnel approach.

Shoppach's a free agent, though, and I wouldn't think he'd want a job where he was to be paired with another RHH C, unless it was a multi-year overpay. Stranger things have happened, but I would be a little surprised if they chose to go into next season with their 2 catchers being a rookie and a brand new guy.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Given the payroll issues, how can you justify paying Salty 6M when you've got Lavarnway who can give you similar production for the minimum? That the part I don't get.

[Doctor G]

Given the payroll issues, how can you justify paying Salty 6M when you've got Lavarnway who can give you similar production for the minimum? That the part I don't get.

As i have stated before i would prefer Suzuki who has a career.800 OPS on average In AL East ballparks. With the A's picking up Kottaras, there would seem to be a market for Suzuki in tthe AL East. i could see interest by The Rays and Yanks who are getting nothing offensively from Martin, and could replace him for less money with the 28 year old Suzuki.

[czar]

Given the payroll issues, how can you justify paying Salty 6M when you've got Lavarnway who can give you similar production for the minimum? That the part I don't get.

First, that assumes Lavarnway would immediately become a top-5 AL catcher (what Salty has been this year). That's a stretch.

But, regardless, you justify paying Salty $6 million because he's worth at least double that. Even if you don't want him on your team, you can get $0.50 on the dollar in trade value for him and STILL come out better than just non-tendering him.

As i have stated before i would prefer Suzuki who has a career.800 OPS on average In AL East ballparks. With the A's picking up Kottaras, there would seem to be a market for Suzuki in tthe AL East. i could see interest by The Rays and Yanks who are getting nothing offensively from Martin, and could replace him for less money with the 28 year old Suzuki.

Suzuki gets paid more than Salty and is a worse player. He has been below replacement level this year. I fail to see how this solves any problems, either in terms of player value or payroll.

Edited by czar, 28 July 2012 - 05:11 PM.

[Plympton91]

Salty's defensive capacities looked pretty good in the off-season compilations of 2011 data (see absinthe's catcher defense thread). Do we have enough data for mid-season 2012 to label him as clearly below average? Certainly his glove work has been problematic this year on wild pitches and throws to the plate, but his framing rated pretty well last year and I haven't noticed any obvious deterioration this year. It does look like Shoppach is a little better at giving pitchers a good target, and has a slightly more accurate arm, but I wouldn't be blaming this season's pitching woes on Salty first. There are so many other candidates, starting with the pitchers and including McClure-Niemann.

This is exactly what I mean by "regressing endogenous variables on endogenous variables."

And OCD, I wasn't playing the "I played the game card," I was just saying that every professional pitcher I've ever heard has said the releationship with the catcher is paramount. I'm not willing to disregard those data in favor of something somebody rigged up aftwr the fact on a spreadsheet.

[Doctor G]

First, that assumes Lavarnway would immediately become a top-5 AL catcher (what Salty has been this year). That's a stretch.

But, regardless, you justify paying Salty $6 million because he's worth at least double that. Even if you don't want him on your team, you can get $0.50 on the dollar in trade value for him and STILL come out better than just non-tendering him.



Suzuki gets paid more than Salty and is a worse player. He has been below replacement level this year. I fail to see how this solves any problems, either in terms of player value or payroll.

Suzuki has had a workload similar to the workload Martin had in LA.he is an extreme flyball hitter in a division that is a graveyard for flyball hitters. with a more moderate workload in the AL East I would expect his offense to rebound.
I would prefer Lavarnway and Shoppach next year. But given the choice of Salty at 6M and Suzuki who has hit well in Fenway his whole career i take Suzuki.

[OCD SS]

Straw man alert--has anybody suggested that this is the case?

The hyperbole started flying pretty heavy in this thread, but if you look at what is implied in DH3's original post (and the ones that followed up by him & Dr. G), I think people are willing to ascribe way too much of Beckett and Lester's problems to Salty's receiving. I don't think that he's a good receiver/ defensive catcher, but it isn't something that can be determined by a difference in cERA.

And OCD, I wasn't playing the "I played the game card," I was just saying that every professional pitcher I've ever heard has said the releationship with the catcher is paramount. I'm not willing to disregard those data in favor of something somebody rigged up aftwr the fact on a spreadsheet.

That's nice, but your argument comes down to taking offhand comments by the athletes as gospel that can somehow be twisted into changing the math in a statistical argument, which is wrong.

Maybe catchers can be magic, but I'm still willing to bet this has a lot more to do with diminished stuff of the pitchers in question, and their results are on them. If the pitchers aren't comfortable throwing to Salty, shouldn't we have heard of it (it's not like everything else doesn't leak out)? Wouldn't we be likely to see the implementation of Shoppach catching guys more, beyond the straight platoon we have? If his pitch calling is so bad how come they don't call the game from the dugout, or why don't the pitchers call their own game (as Beckett has suggested he does in the past)?

I think it is extremely unlikely that Salty will be moved. Catchers definitely don't hit the way they recently used to, and I think it's pretty unlikely that they'd break the platoon advantage between Lavarnway and Salty; if Lavarnway can win the job away from Salty then I think they'll worry about, but I doubt they're planning for it. I don't see them handing the keys to the staff to him right off; IIRC they didn't do that for St. Jason, and I don't think they'll do it for Lavarway. I think they'd need to have a veteran replacement for him ready to go before they'd make that move.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

And OCD, I wasn't playing the "I played the game card," I was just saying that every professional pitcher I've ever heard has said the releationship with the catcher is paramount. I'm not willing to disregard those data in favor of something somebody rigged up aftwr the fact on a spreadsheet.

Are you familiar with the term "placebo Effect"?

[MikeM]

First, that assumes Lavarnway would immediately become a top-5 AL catcher (what Salty has been this year). That's a stretch.

But, regardless, you justify paying Salty $6 million because he's worth at least double that. Even if you don't want him on your team, you can get $0.50 on the dollar in trade value for him and STILL come out better than just non-tendering him.

Yet that May line has come and went, Salty's overall #'s have been in regression ever since, and we are currently down to looking at a monthly line of .158/.226/.429 for July.

Personally, and with 2 months of baseball yet to be played, i wouldn't be so quick to put that much stock in any projected value on Salty atm. Much less completely dismiss the possibility of a non-tender there.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

No way Salty is non-tendered. That's just a projected devaluation based on the Sox' suck-tastic W-L record. He's on pace for 30+ HR, and that power is significant for a catcher even though his moribund OBP should see him buried in the 8-hole on a good team.

I wouldn't be adverse to a trade now or in the offseason -- Lavarnway and Shoppach would make just as good a receiving corps, IMO. And I prefer Lavarnway's OBP and contact skills, even if they come with more modest HR totals.

But the best option is probably to have both Salty and Lavarnway on the team in a straight platoon at catcher, with Lavarnway gaining more experience with the pitchers by taking on the bulk of the bullpen sessions.

Saying that teams always go with a defensive backup seems to me simply a commentary on how difficult it is to find offense at the position. Atlanta certainly never complained about McCann/Ross.

Edited by Buzzkill Pauley, 29 July 2012 - 06:59 AM.

[lexrageorge]

You don't non-tender a guy who's on pace for 25-30 HR's from the C position. That's just nonsense. He does have trade value; teams are always looking for catchers.

[czar]

This is exactly what I mean by "regressing endogenous variables on endogenous variables."

And OCD, I wasn't playing the "I played the game card," I was just saying that every professional pitcher I've ever heard has said the releationship with the catcher is paramount. I'm not willing to disregard those data in favor of something somebody rigged up aftwr the fact on a spreadsheet.

Yet you offer none of this "pitcher/catcher relationship" evidence outside of "well, but last year no one wanted to pitch to him!" with no evidence to back that up.

I already stated this upthread, but if a major league catcher really had those deficiencies, the people most prone to ignoring the spreadsheet and doing something about it are the manager and players. And I've also already stated that there are very easy ways to fix them (OCD covered these as well, but McClure could call games from the dugout, for example -- Farrell has in the past). And so far they have done nothing.

Suzuki has had a workload similar to the workload Martin had in LA.he is an extreme flyball hitter in a division that is a graveyard for flyball hitters. with a more moderate workload in the AL East I would expect his offense to rebound.
I would prefer Lavarnway and Shoppach next year. But given the choice of Salty at 6M and Suzuki who has hit well in Fenway his whole career i take Suzuki.

You can believe whatever you want but Suzuki is going to need a hell of a rebound from a .213/.247/.277 line with a BABIP only 0.010 below his career average to get to replacement level, let alone a level worth his salary ($6.5m in 2013, $8.5 (opt) in 2014). All evidence points to a guy who put up a good couple seasons as a mid-20's catcher and is now on the decline.

Yet that May line has come and went, Salty's overall #'s have been in regression ever since, and we are currently down to looking at a monthly line of .158/.226/.429 for July.

Personally, and with 2 months of baseball yet to be played, i wouldn't be so quick to put that much stock in any projected value on Salty atm. Much less completely dismiss the possibility of a non-tender there.

Admittedly, the only *real* concern about Salty's July numbers is the absurd (~45%) K%. His ISO is where is has been all year (0.283) and his BABIP (0.167) is severely lagging which probably brings his July OPS up to around 775 or so if you regress it.

I don't think anyone is arguing he'll have 6 May's per season, but it's kind of an obnoxious argument to be like "he's had a good season in the aggregate, but a bad July; ergo, he'll probably keep regressing." If he comes back with a 0.380 WPA in August, are people going to want to sign him to a 5 year extension?

Edited by czar, 29 July 2012 - 08:35 AM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Well, if Salty is truly a 15M player who will only get ~6M next season, than surely the Sox will be able to get a nice return in a trade.

[Plympton91]

Yet you offer none of this "pitcher/catcher relationship" evidence outside of "well, but last year no one wanted to pitch to him!" with no evidence to back that up.

I already stated this upthread, but if a major league catcher really had those deficiencies, the people most prone to ignoring the spreadsheet and doing something about it are the manager and players. And I've also already stated that there are very easy ways to fix them (OCD covered these as well, but McClure could call games from the dugout, for example -- Farrell has in the past). And so far they have done nothing.

I don't see why we wouldn't assume tha the abilities of majoe league catchers in various aspects of the game differed as widely as the abilities of major league hitters (where OPS ranges from 640 to 1000+). As others have pointed out, Salty's power is a unique unteachable skill that will cause a lot of teams to overlook or at least downplay his other faults as they hope he can shoehorn himself into the catcher position where the comparative advantage of that power is maximized.

Calling pitches from the dugout is not at all optimal, because, to take just one example, nobody in the dugout can tell if a hitter moved an inch closer to the plate to cover the outside corner after getting beaten there all day. Those reasons are probably why so few teams do it, despite obvious advantages--the coach could literally have the batters chart open in front of him. Likewise, the more a pitcher has to concern himself with shaking off the catcher, the less focused they are on just executing the pitch, it's inferior.

Further, a catcher could call the right pitch, but if the pitcher doesn't believe in his ability to receive it, he might take a mph off it, or he might start the splitter an inch higher, or not bury the slider/cutter so far off the plate, making himself subconsciously more mistake prone. The deterioration in stuff cannot necessarily be discerned from confidence in the catcher.

The Red Sox had a great staff with Vairitek as the primary catcher. None of the pitchers who excelled under Varitek have moved beyond their primes. Indeed, Lester is moving into it. Yet, they've regressed. I call that "data". Your milage may vary.

[SMU_Sox]

Wow, that's some interesting analysis, Alice. You're right, we can't prove you wrong. I couldn't conclusively prove that aliens are not responsible either but it's futile to analyze things through the looking glass. You've latched onto a pet theory though and won't let it go. So now Salty is in Lester's head and is screwing up his mechanics? Do you have any idea how utterly inane your theory sounds? Personally I'd argue aliens over that tangential rubbish. Your mileage may vary.

[judyb]

Vartiek caught 12 of Lester's 63 starts '10 and '11, and he somehow managed to finish both seasons with an ERA under 3.5.

[Plympton91]

Wow, that's some interesting analysis, Alice. You're right, we can't prove you wrong. I couldn't conclusively prove that aliens are not responsible either but it's futile to analyze things through the looking glass. You've latched onto a pet theory though and won't let it go. So now Salty is in Lester's head and is screwing up his mechanics? Do you have any idea how utterly inane your theory sounds? Personally I'd argue aliens over that tangential rubbish. Your mileage may vary.

I'm perfectly happy to let go of theories when confronted with evidence, and then change my mind again when the facts change. That's what it means to be a scientist. The difference is that I understand the limitations of my analysis, which is based on a synthesis of frequentist statistics, Baysian statistics, and scouting input, while others believe that a t-test for equal means is the be all and end all of proof while discounting or outright mocking any other information brought to bear on the subject.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

The Red Sox had a great staff with Vairitek as the primary catcher. None of the pitchers who excelled under Varitek have moved beyond their primes. Indeed, Lester is moving into it. Yet, they've regressed. I call that "data". Your milage may vary.

This is, at best, disingenuous. The last time Varitek was the "primary" catcher was 2009, when he played 109 games. The starters that year?

Lester, Penny, Beckett, Dice-K, Wakefield, Smoltz. We all know he didn't catch Wakefield, and that Smoltz was a disaster. What did Brad Penny and John Smoltz do as soon as they left the Sox? Get better (thanks to PNC park in Penny's case, but still).

So, really, "none of the pitchers" means Lester and Beckett. Perhaps you remember Lester going 19-9 (sorry, are those stats too fancy for you?) in 2010? Are you now arguing that Victor Martinez was a very good game caller/defensive catcher?

That you could argue something that thin with such conviction is really remarkable.

[SMU_Sox]

I'm perfectly happy to let go of theories when confronted with evidence, and then change my mind again when the facts change. That's what it means to be a scientist. The difference is that I understand the limitations of my analysis, which is based on a synthesis of frequentist statistics, Baysian statistics, and scouting input, while others believe that a t-test for equal means is the be all and end all of proof while discounting or outright mocking any other information brought to bear on the subject.

Vartiek caught 12 of Lester's 63 starts '10 and '11, and he somehow managed to finish both seasons with an ERA under 3.5.

How do you respond to that? Now you are confronted with evidence. Also - how the hell would any of us be able to have evidence for what is going on in Lester's head?

Did I use a t-test? No. It's common sense. You're suggesting that Salty is in Lester's head.

And you haven't created any sort of Bayesian, not Baysian btw, statistics. I doubt you could model anything like that to try and evaluate a pitcher's mental state. But by all means show the main board your model for this. Please. If this is how you apply Bayesian statistics and frequentist inferences then they are worth less than the band width you post them on.

[SMU_Sox]

P91, you haven't even presented data for your own arguments. You need numbers. If you're going to argue this you have to have some sort of numbers for it. I'm not asking for calculus, or stats, or anything like that - just some basic data so you can validate these sweeping conclusions you have.

On a side note - this is the third or fourth thread where you've done this kind of thing.

[Plympton91]

How do you respond to that? Now you are confronted with evidence. Also - how the hell would any of us be able to have evidence for what is going on in Lester's head?

Did I use a t-test? No. It's common sense. You're suggesting that Salty is in Lester's head.

"Common sense"=dismissive of anything that does not fit your worldview. You're making my point perfectly.

And you haven't created any sort of Bayesian, not Baysian btw, statistics. I doubt you could model anything like that to try and evaluate a pitcher's mental state. But by all means show the main board your model for this. Please. If this is how you apply Bayesian statistics and frequentist inferences then they are worth less than the band width you post them on.

Right, we cannot model or, from the outside, evaluate a pitcher's mental state. I guess in your world, that means it should be disregarded ex ante and not considered at all. By all means, keep working within that narrow framework.

[SMU_Sox]

Right, we cannot model or, from the outside, evaluate a pitcher's mental state. I guess in your world, that means it should be disregarded ex ante and not considered at all. By all means, keep working within that narrow framework.

But you just said that's what you used in your analysis. So which is it? You used Bayesian statistics and frequentist inferences or you didn't? You're contradicting yourself.

My framework is not narrow - on the contrary I am open to anything provided someone has data to support it. I've changed my mind in other threads and I'd be happy to do it here if I see anything that would convince me otherwise.

[JimBoSox9]

Right, we cannot model or, from the outside, evaluate a pitcher's mental state. I guess in your world, that means it should be disregarded ex ante and not considered at all. By all means, keep working within that narrow framework.

Yeah, but when your best and only defenses for a theory are "well, it makes sense" and "no unprovable theory can be discounted", doesn't that sort of suggest it's not a strong argument?

[Cellar-Door]

Piling on here, besides Lester having had success in the past with Salty, Buchholz had a perfectly fine year last year pitching to Salty (his terrific 2010 was almost entirely with Victor Martinez behind the plate). Beckett's miserable 2006 was mostly with Vartitek, and his miserable 2010 was split between Varitek and Victor (Varitek caught games his ERA was over 7).
Add in that Morales, Miller, Atch, Albers and others in the bullpen are having one of if not the best year of their careers this year throwing to Salty, and it looks more and more like the Salty is why the pitchers suck argument has no evidence to support it. Likely because you pulled it out of your ass then tried to defend it with statements that were either factually inaccurate or based on "feelings" and as such impossible to verify.

[absintheofmalaise]

Broke this out of the Yard Sale thread

[Rough Carrigan]

And this isn't a data point either. But one can't help but wonder how smart a game a catcher calls behind the plate when he has what seems like a stupid approach when he's at the plate himself. If he never figures out anyone's pitching pattern with a bat in his hand, how likely is he to figure out what batters are looking for and how to set them up when he's behind the plate? Maybe he's just too much of a spaz when he's at bat. But you have to wonder.

[Yaz4Ever]

Broke this out of the Yard Sale thread

Thank you!

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

And this isn't a data point either. But one can't help but wonder how smart a game a catcher calls behind the plate when he has what seems like a stupid approach when he's at the plate himself. If he never figures out anyone's pitching pattern with a bat in his hand, how likely is he to figure out what batters are looking for and how to set them up when he's behind the plate? Maybe he's just too much of a spaz when he's at bat. But you have to wonder.

Extending that logic, shouldn't most catchers be good hitters? Since that's not the case whatsoever, and Salty actually leads the entire major leagues in home runs by a catcher and would be second overall in slugging if he had enough at-bats to qualify, it would seem that your conjecture is somewhat without merit.

[Rudy Pemberton]

FWIW, performance of Sox pitchers with Salty has been worse than with Shoppach / Tek. You'd have to further break down that by pitcher to determine distribution of who has caught whom; at which point the samples would probably be worthless, but it's something. With Salty; Sox pitchers have walked more, K'd fewer, given up more HR, and had a higher BABIP than with the others.

2012
Salty: 4.63 ERA / 5.01 RA. 3.1 BB, 7.2 K, 1.1 HR (303 BABIP)
Shoppach: 3.72 ERA / 3.92 RA. 2.9 BB, 7.2 K, 0.9 HR (275 BABIP)

2011
Salty: 4.63 ERA / 5.03 RA. 3.5 BB, 7.1 K, 1.1 HR. (290 BABIP)
Varitek: 3.56 ERA / 3.85 RA, 3.1 BB, 8.1 K, 0.8 HR. (284 BABIP)

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 29 July 2012 - 05:37 PM.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

I'll bite, since I've got nothing better to do. In 2011, here's who Tek caught:

Beckett
Dice
Beckett
Lester
Buch
Beckett
Dice
Buch
Beckett
Dice
Buch
Beckett
Dice
Buch
Dice
Dice
Beckett
Lester
Beckett
Dice
Beckett
Aceves
Beckett
Aceves
Buch
Beckett
Aceves
Beckett
Wakefield (!)
Beckett
Lackey
Beckett
Lackey
Miller
Lackey
Lester
Beckett
Lester
Beckett
Lester
Beckett
Weiland
Beckett
Miller
Beckett
Miller
Beckett
Miller
Beckett
Bedard
Beckett
Bedard
Beckett
Bedard
Beckett
Lester
Beckett
Lester
Beckett
Miller
Beckett
Miller
Lester
Lackey
Beckett
Lackey
Beckett

28 of Tek's starts went to Josh Beckett, he of the non-caring 2.83 ERA last year. He also only drew Wakefield once, and Lackey (owner of the single worst performance in Red Sox starting pitching history) 4 times.

I'd say Salty just got the short end of the stick there, but it's possible you can make the argument that Tek made Beckett better and that's why he's struggling now and therefore Tek does, indeed, have an effect.

[SMU_Sox]

Great work, MDLTG. So 61% of Tek's starts were Lester, Buch, and Lester. Does Salty have the same ratio? I realize that's asking you to do a bit more research but if you have the time that would be an interesting comp.