52 replies to this topic

[86spike]

This thread is a companion to the Yard Sale thread.

Apparently word is the Sox are buyers at this moment.

ESPN says we're looking for pitching.

So if we're buyers... is that the right move? What should they be willing to spend?

[knucklecup]

Anything can happen if you get into the playoffs and they're the opposite of September 2011 away from getting into the playoffs.

The struggles this year are entirely based on players not playing to their potential.

There is an extra wild card spot this season.

Other teams, mainly Oakland and Baltimore are outplaying expectations and aren't likely to continue winning at the rate their winning.

The question on WEEI last night was: what will it take for this team to turn it around? And the answer is simple.

Beckett and Lester pitching to their potential and thus replacing two average to below starters with legitimate aces.

I want to go for it. To me it's similar to Celtics fans at the deadline this past season.

Why does it have to be either you win it all or you should blow it up entirely?

[Cellar-Door]

I think you wait out the weekend, and if you have picked up ground you can aggressively go after a RHB and a starter preferably with at least another year on their deal. I wouldn't move Bogaerts, Bradley, Barnes or, Lavarnway, but might consider Iglesias I the right deal.
I think either way we should sell an OF (Sweeney or Nava) and bullpen arms. If we lose ground over the weekend, strongly consider moving players in the Shop, Ross, Aviles, group. Consider moving Beckett if here is an offer that provides a decent return of prospects.(unlikely I know).

[Rasputin]

So if we're buyers... is that the right move? What should they be willing to spend?

I think it is the right move but I don't think the budget should be very high.

Edited to add, I also think it is entirely possible to be buyers and sellers at the same time and have it be a reasonable strategy. Sell Salty, promote Lavarnway, buy something else of use.

Edited by Rasputin, 25 July 2012 - 06:46 PM.

[mr_smith02]

Other teams, mainly Oakland and Baltimore are outplaying expectations and aren't likely to continue winning at the rate their winning.

I am not sure why they're not likely to keep winning...seems more likely than the Sox having all the things they need to fall in place in order to become true contenders this season.

[Plympton91]

The bottom line is that the Red Sox are a five or six game winning streak from being tied for 5th place. That is always a possibility, even for a bad team. There cannot any justification for giving up while not mathematically eliminated. To do so, would be a travesty. Any team doing so does not deserve the support of its fans, either financially or emotionally. Hopefully, the previous firesales conducted by Henry and Lucchino have taught them that lesson

[OCD SS]

The bottom line is that the Red Sox are a five or six game winning streak from being tied for 5th place. That is always a possibility, even for a bad team. There cannot any justification for giving up while not mathematically eliminated. To do so, would be a travesty. Any team doing so does not deserve the support of its fans, either financially or emotionally. Hopefully, the previous firesales conducted by Henry and Lucchino have taught them that lesson

There is a difference between "giving up" and an irrational and quixotic commitment of resources that would be better spent in the future.

[Rudy Pemberton]

They are also a five game losing streak away from being the forth worst team in the league. Let's not confuse mediocrity with being in contention. This isn't a good team. At best, it's average. It not the Yankees or the Rangers; its the Orioles or Indians. Embrace the reality that thia team is going nowhere, see if you can take advantage of a desperate organization and move players with no future here. Otherwise, get rid of the dead weight, integrate some youth and energy into the team, and figure out how to make this team great again.

Frankly, you could replace 1/4 of the roster with guys in Pawtucket and not skip a beat.

[Plympton91]

There is a difference between "giving up" and an irrational and quixotic commitment of resources that would be better spent in the future.

Why would they be better spent in the future though? It's possible, for instance, that Jose Iglesias' value peaked last year. If he goes another season in AAA where he gets hurt for a month and puts up a 600 OPS he'll be a DFA candidate. Lars Anderson is currently about useless in trade value, but 3 years ago could have been a prime piece of a major trade. Most prospects never amount to crap. Good organizations figure out how to turn hype into value.

[OCD SS]

Why would they be better spent in the future though? It's possible, for instance, that Jose Iglesias' value peaked last year. If he goes another season in AAA where he gets hurt for a month and puts up a 600 OPS he'll be a DFA candidate. Lars Anderson is currently about useless in trade value, but 3 years ago could have been a prime piece of a major trade. Most prospects never amount to crap. Good organizations figure out how to turn hype into value.

There's a difference between hype and incomplete development. The logical conclusion of your line of thought is that they could deal any prospect for a chance at a short term and modest gain; that leaves them without Ellsbury, Lester, and Buchholz (and probably Pedroia except that no one seemed to want him until he became a back to back ROY/ MVP) and has them spending more money on over the hill and ineffective veterans. Do you really not see that being unable to integrate young, cost-controlled players is a suicidal way to run a franchise? Especially with the CBT penalties in new CBA?

Clearly talent evaluation is an issue, but it simply isn't that easy (for instance remember when the Sox and D-Backs tried to work out a Montero trade, and the deal was scuttled because Theo offered Bard and they wouldn't take less than Bowden, wanting a SP rather than a RP - that looks bad a few different ways).

[mr_smith02]

The bottom line is that the Red Sox are a five or six game winning streak from being tied for 5th place. That is always a possibility, even for a bad team.

That statement assumes the teams in front of the Sox would lose games too while the Sox are winning. And, it has been a while since this team has shown the capacity to win 5 or 6 in a row.

Edited by mr_smith02, 25 July 2012 - 10:28 PM.

[P'tucket, rhymes with...]

That statement assumes the teams in front of the Sox would lose games too while the Sox are winning. And, it has been a while since this team has shown the capacity to win 5 or 6 in a row.

Moreover, a five or six game winning streak is meaningless. The question is whether the Sox can play .650ish baseball over the rest of the season to get to 90 wins. There's absolutely nothing to indicate that they can.

[Drek717]

Frankly, you could replace 1/4 of the roster with guys in Pawtucket and not skip a beat.

And this is why they need to focus more on selling than buying in the lead up to the deadline.

The Sox have spent a lot of time and money building a deep 40 man roster with some real success. This team has control of well over 25 quality MLB players, they just have no one playing at a truly elite level right now anywhere other than Ortiz at DH. That makes right now an ideal time to move some of the older guys who sit somewhere between "starter" and "good backup" (Aviles, Sweeney, Padilla, Albers, etc.). Moving those kinds of guys to replace with younger players who will likely give similar production would be a great first step in parlaying some of this wasted depth into future value. The return on the trades could basically consist of C prospects and lottery tickets and it'd still be worth it.

Then once through the weekend they can make another round of self-assessment and if the wild card is looking like a real pipe dream it becomes time to move some of the short term guys with real value. Namely Ross and Salty, who should each bring back something of real value and again, have in-house options waiting for a shot (Linares and Lavarnway respectively).

[NDame616]

They are also a five game losing streak away from being the forth worst team in the league. Let's not confuse mediocrity with being in contention. This isn't a good team. At best, it's average. It not the Yankees or the Rangers; its the Orioles or Indians. Embrace the reality that thia team is going nowhere, see if you can take advantage of a desperate organization and move players with no future here. Otherwise, get rid of the dead weight, integrate some youth and energy into the team, and figure out how to make this team great again.

Frankly, you could replace 1/4 of the roster with guys in Pawtucket and not skip a beat.

Actually, we are tied for 10th in the league with Toronto, and since they have a better H2H record than us, we actually are 11th in the league. In other words...we currently ARE the forth worst team in the league. Luckily, we are 6.5 games "up" on Seattle for that distinction, so we are pretty safe where we are....as the 4th worst team in the league.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Actually, we are tied for 10th in the league with Toronto, and since they have a better H2H record than us, we actually are 11th in the league. In other words...we currently ARE the forth worst team in the league. Luckily, we are 6.5 games "up" on Seattle for that distinction, so we are pretty safe where we are....as the 4th worst team in the league.

From what I've seen since 2002, if there's any Sox team from the H/W/L era that could realistically hope to close such a gap, this is the one to do it.

[Hokie Sox]

It is a seller's market this year with so many teams in contention. The Red Sox are prospect-strapped, for lack of a better term, or at least that seems to be the idea here (especially considering we have some posters frothing at the mouth to take advantage of selling this year- clearly we need to poll PIrates' fans to see just how anticlimactic this route is). The Red Sox don't want to give up any of their top 5 for a guy like Dempster, who could turn out to be a rental and/or may not be a significant enough factor for them to turn it around and make a run this year.

For these reasons, I see them staying put and relying on hopes and dreams. When does football start?

[DanoooME]

It is a seller's market this year with so many teams in contention. The Red Sox are prospect-strapped, for lack of a better term, or at least that seems to be the idea here (especially considering we have some posters frothing at the mouth to take advantage of selling this year- clearly we need to poll PIrates' fans to see just how anticlimactic this route is). The Red Sox don't want to give up any of their top 5 for a guy like Dempster, who could turn out to be a rental and/or may not be a significant enough factor for them to turn it around and make a run this year.

The Pirates didn't give up any of the their top 5 prospects for Wandy Rodriguez, who's signed through 2013 with a team option for 2014 and is arguably at least Dempster's equal, who's only signed for this year. Why on earth would the Sox give up a top 5 guy for Dempster in that situation? And assuming he continues his career year (hello, BABIP of .244), is it really worth giving up a top 5 guy for a slightly better chance at the playoffs given that the real problems in the rotation (Beckett and Lester) aren't going to get displaced for him?

[mr_smith02]

From what I've seen since 2002, if there's any Sox team from the H/W/L era that could realistically hope to close such a gap, this is the one to do it.

Based on exactly what? What factual thing have you seen from this team up to this point in this season that would lead you to believe this?

Edited by mr_smith02, 26 July 2012 - 09:07 AM.

[bstoker7]

Based on exactly what? What factual thing have you seen from this team up to this point in this season that would lead you to believe this?

Pretty sure he meant the gap between the Red Sox and Mariners...

[mr_smith02]

Pretty sure he meant the gap between the Red Sox and Mariners...

If that's the case, then I agree wholeheartedly.

[Plympton91]

There's a difference between hype and incomplete development. The logical conclusion of your line of thought is that they could deal any prospect for a chance at a short term and modest gain; that leaves them without Ellsbury, Lester, and Buchholz (and probably Pedroia except that no one seemed to want him until he became a back to back ROY/ MVP) and has them spending more money on over the hill and ineffective veterans. Do you really not see that being unable to integrate young, cost-controlled players is a suicidal way to run a franchise? Especially with the CBT penalties in new CBA?

Clearly talent evaluation is an issue, but it simply isn't that easy (for instance remember when the Sox and D-Backs tried to work out a Montero trade, and the deal was scuttled because Theo offered Bard and they wouldn't take less than Bowden, wanting a SP rather than a RP - that looks bad a few different ways).

This highlights what I've said in a few different threads, and is similar to what our dearly departed friend Maalox used to preach, which is that when trading prospects you should focus on what you're getting, and not so much on what you're giving up. Basically if the Red Sox evaluated Montero as need, they should have been willing to give up either Bard or Bowden. If Montero was not an organizational need, then they shouldn't have been willing to give up either.

I wouldn't give up anything for Mike Aviles, and a I wouldn't sign Nick Punto if he was paying me. On the other hand, I'd trade all of Bogaerts, Barnes, and Bradley for Felix Hernandez, and I would have just kept beating the offers the Cardinals were making to Matt Holiday rather than signing John Lackey ever.

Recent free agent and trade negotiations that we've seen concluded have taken on the aura of the weaker "positional bargaining" rather than strong "principled bargaining."

[Hokie Sox]

is it really worth giving up a top 5 guy for a slightly better chance at the playoffs given that the real problems in the rotation (Beckett and Lester) aren't going to get displaced for him?

At this point, no. However a Josh Johnson is a horse of a different color and would be worth bringing here for his prime years 29-33 (assuming he resigns and they can seriously reallocate some salaries). I still don't think it gets done though for the aforementioned reasons. This team is too bad for someone like Dempster to help them (which is the prospect price they wish to pay for a Josh Johnson). I realize I'm just throwing shit at the wall here, but again, this is why nothing substantial gets done.

[JakeRae]

The bottom line is that the Red Sox are a five or six game winning streak from being tied for 5th place. That is always a possibility, even for a bad team. There cannot any justification for giving up while not mathematically eliminated. To do so, would be a travesty. Any team doing so does not deserve the support of its fans, either financially or emotionally. Hopefully, the previous firesales conducted by Henry and Lucchino have taught them that lesson

The bolded is a ridiculous standard. Of course you can give up (from an organizational standpoint) well prior to mathematical elimination. This standard implies that no team should ever be selling at the deadline since no team is ever mathematically eliminated that early in the season.

They are also a five game losing streak away from being the forth worst team in the league. Let's not confuse mediocrity with being in contention. This isn't a good team. At best, it's average. It not the Yankees or the Rangers; its the Orioles or Indians. Embrace the reality that thia team is going nowhere, see if you can take advantage of a desperate organization and move players with no future here. Otherwise, get rid of the dead weight, integrate some youth and energy into the team, and figure out how to make this team great again.

Frankly, you could replace 1/4 of the roster with guys in Pawtucket and not skip a beat.

This statement is almost as silly as the one above. This team is the very definition of average thus far this season. To believe that, at best, this team is average, you have to believe that the best case scenario for a team whose entire starting rotation has underperformed their career averages and peripherals, has not had 2/3 of it's starting outfield healthy all season, and has seen Pedroia and Gonzalez underperform relative to their established levels is that they tread water, performance wise, now that those outfielders are healthy, Gonzalez is heating up, and one starting pitcher (Buchholz) seems to have rediscovered how to be an effective MLB pitcher. It's not optimistic to think that this team is, at worst, average. It is realistic.

The organization needs to realistically evaluate it's chances of making the playoffs this year and act based on that. They need to do the same for next season since most of their pieces with real value are under team control for multiple years. While I think they should be selling some of the peripheral pieces, a position I've held for several months and has more to do with having too many of those pieces than anything else, I don't think they should be shopping the likes of Ellsbury, Saltalamacchia, Lester, or Beckett. If I am in charge, anyone in the bullpen (but not everyone) is available at the right price. Sweeney and Nava are both available. Ross is not. Shoppach is available given Lavarnway's ability to take over his role. Punto and Ciriaco are both available if anyone is crazy enough to want to trade for either. Cook is available if Morales can be safely returned to the rotation. That's it.

I have no desire to see this team buy anything at the deadline this year.

Edited by JakeRae, 26 July 2012 - 12:29 PM.

[SoxScout]

The fading Indians have told teams that they may trade opening day starter Justin Masterson, sources say.
Both the Red Sox and Rangers sent scouts to watch Masterson Saturday night in Minnesota, but he did not pitch well. After shutting out the Twins for the first three innings, Masterson allowed 10 runs (eight earned) over the next 2 2/3, to raise his ERA to 4.47.

http://www.cbssports...went-to-see-him

2 years left of arb, first year was at 3.8. Still sucks against LHB, fair K rate. Might be the biggest boom or bust SP in baseball from start to start.

[Corsi]

Teams inquiring on Rafael Betancourt include Texas, Atlanta, Boston and Toronto. Signed in '13 for $4.25M, mutual option for same in '14.

https://twitter.com/...715576396849152

[RedOctober3829]

Teams inquiring on Rafael Betancourt include Texas, Atlanta, Boston and Toronto. Signed in '13 for $4.25M, mutual option for same in '14

https://twitter.com/...715576396849152

Please, please don't spend assets on a 37 year old reliever.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I really cannot conceive of any situation in which the Red Sox trading for an old, relatively expensive reliever makes any kind of sense. .

[RedOctober3829]

Red Sox were one of the teams in on Francisco Liriano in the end. Went to ChiSox

https://twitter.com/...718234029502464

[Rudy Pemberton]

That I don't get either. Terrible in the AL Central, would have been an upgrade over what Sox starter? He's not better than Morales. What's going on here? Sox just in on everyone, but coming up just short, to give the impression that they are trying to upgrade? Being interested in guys like Liriano and Betancourt is baffling.

[knucklecup]

They couldn't top the White Sox offer? Yikes.

[Clears Cleaver]

Common sense would suggest the Sox using a mouthpiece to let people think they are looking to acquire something at the deadline. 1) it may appease a certain part of the fan base 2) maybe it drives up costs for other teams. Common sense reality says there is no way the Sxo would be interested in an old reliever or a AAAA starting pitcher.

[Harry Hooper]

That I don't get either. Terrible in the AL Central, would have been an upgrade over what Sox starter? He's not better than Morales. What's going on here? Sox just in on everyone, but coming up just short, to give the impression that they are trying to upgrade? Being interested in guys like Liriano and Betancourt is baffling.

Dig in the archives regarding previous trade deadline periods, and you'll find Theo and LL citing the high cost of milk.

[johnnywayback]

What's going on here? Sox just in on everyone, but coming up just short, to give the impression that they are trying to upgrade?

Or Sox in on everyone, but not willing to pay retail price, to be prepared if someone's going for a song? Topping that (mediocre) White Sox offer would have been baffling. Not seeing if they'd take 70% of that, even more so.

[Hendu for Kutch]

They couldn't top the White Sox offer? Yikes.

Such an odd thing to say. Of course they could top the offer. They chose not to. Liriano's pitched really well for the past couple of months and is exactly the type of player they should be targeting if they're in fact buyers right now. The sort of guy who could potentially upgrade your team while costing you nothing you'd miss. Once he becomes more expensive than that, you move on.

[Plympton91]

Since the break:
2 out of 3 from the Rays
3 out of 4 from the White Sox
3 and 3 against the Yankees and Rangers
0 and 3 against the Blue Jays

Most of that without Ortiz.

I'm calling the Blue Jays series the outlier. BUY! BUY! BUY!

[86spike]

Since the break:
2 out of 3 from the Rays
3 out of 4 from the White Sox
3 and 3 against the Yankees and Rangers
0 and 3 against the Blue Jays

Most of that without Ortiz.

I'm calling the Blue Jays series the outlier. BUY! BUY! BUY!

Nothing says Contender like an 8-8 stretch.

[OCD SS]

Nothing says Contender like an 8-8 stretch.

.500 team goes .500.

[Van Everyman]

Since the break:
2 out of 3 from the Rays
3 out of 4 from the White Sox
3 and 3 against the Yankees and Rangers
0 and 3 against the Blue Jays

Most of that without Ortiz.

I'm calling the Blue Jays series the outlier. BUY! BUY! BUY!

You laugh, but...

This is a really tough team to analyze. Yes, they've been totally mediocre. Yes, almost all their big ticket guys other than Ortiz have underperformed mightily. Yes, their top three has been pathetic for the duration of the year (Buchholz has looked good for a while now -- but it says something about how bad he was that his ERA is still north of 4.50).

Yet...yet...this team actually does have the talent to go to the playoffs. It even has the talent to go deep into the playoffs.

If I'm Ben, I probably stand pat at the deadline -- unless I get a really good opportunity to move a contract off the books. But there's no justification for giving up anything of value given the performance thus far. But other than payroll flexibility, there's no reason to go into fire sale mode either.

[86spike]

If I'm Ben, I probably stand pat at the deadline --

I expect Ben will spend the next 24 hours sitting on the metaphorical toilet thinking "Shit or get off the pot? Shit or get off the pot?"

At the last minute he'll probably jump up off the toilet but crap at the same time into his pants piled up around his ankles.

[yecul]

Basically agree. They will.do.something nut it will be haphazard and turn out poorly being universally panned.

[johnnywayback]

I expect Ben will spend the next 24 hours sitting on the metaphorical toilet thinking "Shit or get off the pot? Shit or get off the pot?"

At the last minute he'll probably jump up off the toilet but crap at the same time into his pants piled up around his ankles.

I expect he'll keep checking to see if he can get someone to overpay for Beckett or if he can dramatically underpay for a starter. I'm also pretty sure he'll look to move Albers and either Punto or Aviles, depending on what people are offering. And if anyone wants to make a bowl-me-over offer for Ellsbury or Saltalamacchia, I'm sure he'll probably listen.

Caution in the absence of clear evidence that we should be overly aggressive in either direction may not be an emotionally satisfying response to a frustrating season, but I'm not sure it's deserving of such a vibrantly scatological analysis.

[Rasputin]

I think when it all comes down, the Sox are going to jettison Punto and do little or nothing else.

[4-6-3]

I think when it all comes down, the Sox are going to jettison Punto and do little or nothing else.

With all the Sweeney talk, I think he'll go and perhaps a reliever but that will be all.

[The Gray Eagle]

I think when it all comes down, the Sox are going to jettison Punto and do little or nothing else.

I wish. Punto, an OF and a RP need to get moved before the deadline, but none of that has happened and there really haven't even been any rumors. I'm afraid they won't make any of those moves and won't play the young guys with upside that we need to get up here.

We've got Ciriaco and Aviles to hold down SS for 2 months, with a classic defensive replacement in AAA who can come up in one month (or sooner if there's an injury.) Aviles and Ciriaco can also cover 2B and Aviles 3B. There never was any need for Punto for one year, much less 2, and now there's even less need for him. We need that roster spot for a young player, time to admit the mistake and get him out of here, but I doubt that it happens.

[Rudy Pemberton]

What are they going to get for Punto, though? It seems like he's better served for his role of sitting on the bench and giving high fives, than Aviles is, and they wouldn't want to pay Aviles that much next year as a backup IF. Aviles has the potential to bring back something interesting, perhaps.

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 30 July 2012 - 07:31 PM.

[86spike]

, but I'm not sure it's deserving of such a vibrantly scatological analysis.

Sorry, since last September, thinking about the Sox brings to mind that type of imagery for me.

[SoxScout]

So if we are slight buyers (?) who are we looking at... Vargas or Masterson, maybe Betancourt (for whatever reason we are linked to him)?

Tomorrow could be painful prospect-wise.

[Rasputin]

What are they going to get for Punto, though?

Get rid of the contract obligation for next year and I'm fine with getting nothing back.

[joe dokes]

What are they going to get for Punto, though? It seems like he's better served for his role of sitting on the bench and giving high fives, than Aviles is, and they wouldn't want to pay Aviles that much next year as a backup IF. Aviles has the potential to bring back something interesting, perhaps.

Houston needs a SS.

[Rasputin]

Houston needs a SS.

Why the hell would Houston spend anything on anyone?