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#1 86spike


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Posted 23 July 2012 - 09:44 PM

What kind of spare parts can/could the Sox trade by next week?

Can we get rid of at least one of our anchor contracts in the process?

Will Lucky allow the sell out streak to end?

#2 bosockboy


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Posted 23 July 2012 - 09:47 PM

Only if they 0-fer it this week.

#3 86spike


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Posted 23 July 2012 - 09:58 PM

Only if they 0-fer it this week.


I disagree.

It's over. Boston's entire rotation is filled with question marks that are collectively way too big to ignore.

Lester is a mess.
Beckett is a mess.
Buchholz is inconsistent.
Doubront is inconsistent and nearing an innings cap issue.
Cook is smoke and groundball mirrors.
Matsuzaka is a mess.
Bard is a mess.

There isn't a chance in hell that many problems can all be fixed.

Edited by 86spike, 23 July 2012 - 09:58 PM.


#4 SoxScout


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Posted 23 July 2012 - 10:12 PM

Lowest level...

Albers and Padilla ------- Taz, Wilson, Carpenter, ect should get a good look no matter what

Next...

Sweeney, Aviles, Shoppach -------- Iglesias, Lavarnway, Linares, ect

If we want to start doing serious business...

There is no reason Ross shouldn't be sold to the highest bidder

If shit gets real...

Beckett, Lester, Ellsbury (This is the peak of his value. 2 postseasons for the buyer. Are we gonna pay him, if not are we gonna take 1 supp pick to see him walk?)

#5 Savin Hillbilly


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Posted 23 July 2012 - 10:13 PM

"Buchholz is inconsistent" is a bit imprecise. He had a truly shitty first month. Since May 11, he's been mostly good: 3.31 ERA, 52 Ks/17 BBs/5 HR, .669 OPS allowed in 68 innings.

Of course there's no guarantee he won't turn back into a pumpkin, but while this pitching staff has lots of problems, Buchholz really isn't one of them at the moment.

That said, I agree that we're very close to fire sale time.

#6 MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 10:18 PM

1-6
3-7
7-15
1-9

Not easy to put up a -25 run differential in 4 games. That's impressive.

Lackey being on the DL means you can't move him. Crawford's contract is utter poison. Gonzalez's isn't much better. Those three deals are utter albatrosses and I don't see how the Sox get out from under them.

#7 bosockboy


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Posted 23 July 2012 - 10:18 PM

Only if they 0-fer it this week.


I meant Lucky.....I agree with you. Torch it.

#8 RedOctober3829


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Posted 23 July 2012 - 10:19 PM

1-6
3-7
7-15
1-9

Not easy to put up a -25 run differential in 4 games. That's impressive.

Lackey being on the DL means you can't move him. Crawford's contract is utter poison. Gonzalez's isn't much better. Those three deals are utter albatrosses and I don't see how the Sox get out from under them.


Crawford and Gonzalez's contracts aren't the problems at the moment. If Beckett and Lester would be performing to their career norms, this thread isn't here.

#9 Paul M


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Posted 23 July 2012 - 10:22 PM

Has a team spent so much and received so less as the Boston Red Sox starting pitching over the last two years? Bottom third in performance and top 1 or 2 in $ spent I believe.

I know it can turn around and that the starters are not THIS bad but this might be the time to really blow it up though I doubt it will happen.

#10 maufman


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Posted 23 July 2012 - 10:24 PM

If the FO believes in Lavarnway, Salty is the logical "sell high" candidate.

Lester, Ellsbury, Pedroia and Buchholz are at the nadir of their value.

Everyone else is either indispensable, untradable, or not worth very much.

#11 86spike


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Posted 23 July 2012 - 10:26 PM

I wonder what we could get back for Ortiz.

I think the only players I would definitely not trade (without a ridiculous overpay) would be Pedroia, Ellsbury (assuming they plan to extend him soon), middlebrooks, Buchholz, Morales, Doubront, and... That's it.

#12 bosockboy


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Posted 23 July 2012 - 10:32 PM

I'd push Ellsbury to Natstown as hard as I could. They need a CF and lead off hitter and might be a difference maker on winning the pennant. Beckett would be a nice fill in for Strasburg too.

#13 The Gray Eagle


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Posted 23 July 2012 - 10:35 PM

Lester, Ellsbury, Pedroia and Buchholz are at the nadir of their value.


Which is why none of them (or Bard) should be traded now. That would be textbook selling low. (AKA pulling a Cherington.)

I'm fine with listening to offers for anyone else, but we're not going to get much of anything back. It's not much of a yard sale if all you've got to sell is broken junk. Hey what am I bid for this rotary phone with the dial broken off? How about this manual typewriter that's jammed and doesn't work? How about this beeper that doesn't turn on? And hey, we have this 2010 sports car that we just got out of the shop, take over the payments through 2017 and you can drive it home today! (I hope you have AAA.)

#14 TheoShmeo


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Posted 23 July 2012 - 10:37 PM

If this year is a lost cause -- and I find it hard to believe that it isn't -- the point is to keep those parts that will be helpful down the road and sell off the excess.

But the problem with this collection of players is that they don't have many guys that they'd want to shed that other teams will pay up for. Sure, they could give players away like the Mariners just did with Ichiro.

But who is going to take Beckett or Lackey with their ridiculous contracts? Lester's value couldn't be any lower. The "excess" OFers like Nava and Sweeney suddenly look worthless. Podsednik is rotting away in the minors despite having put up good numbers in Boston, and it's doubtful that the Sox could get much for him at this point.

Some of the relievers might have some value. If the Sox are to be sellers, this could prove to be a fruitful ground. And it is true that with Lavanway on the farm, they can afford to trade a catcher and should be able to get some good value for either of them.

With Crawford's stupid contract and possible surgery, why would anyone trade much of anything for him?

Now if the Sox want to follow the Lucky edict and boldly trade Ellsbury given the upcoming difficult Boras negotiation they face, they almost certainly would be able to bring something very useful back. But even there, teams will know that the Sox are in a tough spot and will negotiate hard.

Bottom line, unless the Sox make an extraordinary and creative move, but for a few exceptions, this would be one of those yard sales that you stop at for a few minutes and then make a hasty retreat from.

#15 Paul M


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Posted 23 July 2012 - 10:37 PM

If they got something resembling full market value I'd definitely trade Ellsbury. I am not really sure what he's worth to be honest and if he's the 850+ OPS guy or the 750 guy? There's a quality back-up a year away in Bradley and I think he nets them the best prspect package they can get. He's 29 in a month which I am not sure is fully appreciated.

After Ellsbury, I don't see a real attractive piece since the discount on Lester will be too much unless a team like the Dodgers panics or perhaps a team like the Rangers who have some strong pieces. If the Marlins can get a top 30 prospect for a FA to be in good not great Anibal Sanchez, maybe Lester is the right move to make.

I don't think they move either of their crown jewel development guys with Cherington running things but this is what I'd do.

#16 ookami7m

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 10:46 PM

Has a team spent so much and received so less as the Boston Red Sox starting pitching over the last two years? Bottom third in performance and top 1 or 2 in $ spent I believe.

I know it can turn around and that the starters are not THIS bad but this might be the time to really blow it up though I doubt it will happen.


May I remind you of the great Mike Hampton/Denny Neagle offseason for Colorado. Or Perhaps the New York Mets circa 2005-present.....

#17 Paul M


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Posted 23 July 2012 - 10:50 PM

I was only looking at the most recent seasons and the return on investment over that time period. The great run-prevention investment of 2010-2012 will likely lead to 0 playoff appearances and mediiocre at best production with the trend in pitching going the wrong way.

#18 Savin Hillbilly


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Posted 23 July 2012 - 10:54 PM

Lester, Ellsbury, Pedroia and Buchholz are at the nadir of their value.


I think this is overstating the case.

Lester, yes. No question. He's never been less valuable since he rejoined the rotation five years ago to the day.

Pedroia is only "at the nadir of his value" in the sense that he's been one of the most valuable players in baseball since very early in his career, and now he's a little less valuable than that. But I don't think he's significantly damaged goods.

Buchholz has been pitching well for two months after a bad start, as I noted above. He's not as valuable as he was at the end of 2010, but he's still fairly young and has good stuff.

Ellsbury, far from being at his "nadir," is more valuable now than he was at any time before, oh, about sixteen months ago. Obviously it would have been great if he had picked up right where he left off, but the reason why he didn't is obvious and shouldn't really hurt his value much. He's come back swinging the bat well, and I can't imagine that a contender with a CF hole (Washington being the obvious candidate, as others have noted) would hesitate to give solid prospect value for him.

#19 Plympton91


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Posted 23 July 2012 - 10:55 PM

I'd push Ellsbury to Natstown as hard as I could.


It can't hurt to ask for Harper, Strasburg, Gonzalez, or Zimmerman, but I doubt they'll go for it. Nobody else they have is worth it.

#20 Savin Hillbilly


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Posted 23 July 2012 - 11:04 PM

It can't hurt to ask for Harper, Strasburg, Gonzalez, or Zimmerman, but I doubt they'll go for it. Nobody else they have is worth it.


I thought they were supposed to have one of the better farm systems in MLB--no? Obviously if we're selling Ellsbury we're reloading for the long term, so it's prospects, not current major leaguers we're after. If we're still trying to win this year, we keep him. He'll still have excellent trade value over the winter. It's only once the bell rings next year that his value plummets thanks to the new CBA.

#21 curly2

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 11:08 PM

I would definitely trade Ellsbury in the right deal. With the Gonzalez and Crawford contracts, it seems like they might be unable/unwilling to give Boras what he will demand after 2013. Ideally Bradley could use another year in the minors, but I think his plate discipline would allow him to be at least a decent hitter in 2013 and he should improve on the job.

As for other deals, after losing the Series the last two years, Texas has to be in Go For It Now mode. With Lewis done for the year, Oswalt hurt and Darvish unproven on the big American stage, could a good start by Beckett on Wednesday get the Rangers to bite? I know Nolan Ryan is neither manager nor GM. but I wonder if he might think he's the guy to get his fellow Texan focused again. And Beckett has certainly shown he can dominate in the postseason.

If Beckett can give a good start on Wednesday, I think Ben should contact Texas.

#22 Rasputin


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Posted 23 July 2012 - 11:12 PM

Going with the premise,

Salty would have some value and you could bring up Lavarnway.

Aviles would have some value and you could bring up Iglesias. I'm not sure that would be good for Iglesias at the moment, but you could do it.

Pretty much everyone in the bullpen would have some value.

If you're looking at a big deal the only one that makes any sense to me is sending Josh Beckett out. He's got two years after this at relatively low money.

Trading Ellsbury makes no sense because you'd have to bring in someone to play CF next year.

#23 Paul M


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Posted 23 July 2012 - 11:15 PM

Anthony Rendon and Ross Detwiler for Ellsbury? Who balks? I'd honestly wonder if the Nats would pay that price.

Beckett's run of dominance in the playoffs is so long ago that I think Texas doesn't give Boston more than salary relief. I don't see one of their top 3 prospects coming.

#24 Rasputin


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Posted 23 July 2012 - 11:16 PM

If Beckett can give a good start on Wednesday, I think Ben should contact Texas.


Yes.

And given that he has two years left after this, the asking price should be high.

#25 Rasputin


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Posted 23 July 2012 - 11:20 PM

Beckett's run of dominance in the playoffs is so long ago that I think Texas doesn't give Boston more than salary relief. I don't see one of their top 3 prospects coming.


You should probably take a look at his 2011 again.

Edited by Rasputin, 23 July 2012 - 11:21 PM.


#26 SMU_Sox


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Posted 23 July 2012 - 11:31 PM

Texas' top 3 prospects are some of the best in the minors. Profar and Ult are probably untouchable (although I heard that only Profar is from baseball prospectus). The point is there is no way Daniels gives up one of his best 3 for either Beckett or Lester. If he's hesitant to give them up for Hamels or Greinke he certainly won't for L and B.

#27 EvilEmpire

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 11:34 PM

Yes.

And given that he has two years left after this, the asking price should be high.


I think if the Rangers are in GFIN mode and are willing to pay a significant price, they can do a bit better than Beckett. Whatever his issue is, whether health, mental, or whatever, I don't how the Rangers could count on him to perform at a high level.

#28 ShaneTrot

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 11:48 PM

Anthony Rendon and Ross Detwiler for Ellsbury? Who balks? I'd honestly wonder if the Nats would pay that price.

Beckett's run of dominance in the playoffs is so long ago that I think Texas doesn't give Boston more than salary relief. I don't see one of their top 3 prospects coming.

At the deadline, there is always a team that overpays. Hopefully, we find a patsy. The starters are either lousy or broken, one or more has to go.

#29 Rasputin


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Posted 24 July 2012 - 12:29 AM

I think if the Rangers are in GFIN mode and are willing to pay a significant price, they can do a bit better than Beckett. Whatever his issue is, whether health, mental, or whatever, I don't how the Rangers could count on him to perform at a high level.


If they could be, he wouldn't be available.

Editing to expand.

The likelihood of Beckett, Lester, and Gonzales performing more to their career norms next year is reasonably high. At some point we have to have a season where we don't have multiple key players out for months at a time. When that happens, we're going to want to have some good pitchers.

Edited by Rasputin, 24 July 2012 - 12:35 AM.


#30 Eric Van


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Posted 24 July 2012 - 01:01 AM

Crawford and Gonzalez's contracts aren't the problems at the moment. If Beckett and Lester would be performing to their career norms, this thread isn't here.


Actually, if they were simply pitching up to their peripherals, this thread might not be here. They're 2nd and 3rd worst in the AL in ERA - FIP. Beckett is clustering everything he's giving up, and Lester's BABIP is sky-high and not entirely bad luck, as his LD% is way up as well. In a weird way, this mirrors the offense being 7th in MLB in wRC+ but 21st in WPA.

Two years ago injuries killed us, last year inefficiency (translating stats into wins) killed us, and this year, instead of getting neither curse, we've gotten both.

Salty would have some value and you could bring up Lavarnway.

Aviles would have some value and you could bring up Iglesias. I'm not sure that would be good for Iglesias at the moment, but you could do it.


Ciriaco looks like a perfectly serviceable MLB SS, and they're going to have to trade either him or Punto when Papi comes off the DL anyway. Trading Aviles instead is a really interesting idea; it might net you a significant prospect without entirely punting the season. Should some kind of major turnaround happen with the rest of the team, you could certainly make the post-season with Ciriaco as your SS through September and Iglesias thereafter.

Trading Salty to make room for Lavarnway is more of a punt. I'd prefer to wait till the off-season to make that move.

#31 maufman


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Posted 24 July 2012 - 06:26 AM

Trading Salty to make room for Lavarnway is more of a punt. I'd prefer to wait till the off-season to make that move.


Do you still buy the (rumored) metrics that show Salty being above average at the defensive aspects of the position that are difficult to measure?

I'm asking because I think some of us suspect Salty isn't terribly good at calling games, framing pitches, and so on. If a catcher has a +/- effect of 0.07 on team ERA, that's roughly one win over the course of a season (1200 innings, or about 133 games). So if you think Salty isn't good at this stuff, he's probably overvalued. On the flip side, if you think Salty is good at this intangible stuff, and that Lavarnway is not, then trading Salty could be a serious mistake.

#32 Bongorific

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Posted 24 July 2012 - 06:53 AM

Anthony Rendon and Ross Detwiler for Ellsbury? Who balks? I'd honestly wonder if the Nats would pay that price.

Beckett's run of dominance in the playoffs is so long ago that I think Texas doesn't give Boston more than salary relief. I don't see one of their top 3 prospects coming.

Rendon can't seem to stay on the field with first his shoulder and now repeated ankle injuries. I'd be nervous about that move.




#33 Savin Hillbilly


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Posted 24 July 2012 - 07:05 AM

Trading Ellsbury makes no sense because you'd have to bring in someone to play CF next year.


Kalish, with JBJ knocking at the door. Not really satisfactory in the short term, as Kalish is borderline at best in CF, but the whole premise of trading Ellsbury is that you're not building for the short term--you're reloading for 2014, maybe even 2015, and beyond. That's contrary to the way this team has operated, but the way this team has operated has not worked terribly well of late. I don't know if Lucky is willing to go there, though.

#34 dynomite

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Posted 24 July 2012 - 07:11 AM

If you're looking at a big deal the only one that makes any sense to me is sending Josh Beckett out.


Completely agreed. Beckett's got an xFIP around 3.94, he's still "only" 32, and if we pick up any of the deal he's a relative bargain.

It took me a while to come around on this idea; I didn't think the solution to a terrible starting pitching staff was to trade one of our best starters, but this seems like the perfect time to trade him. From our perspective, he's about to enter the "danger zone" (his mid-30s) yet still has considerable trade value for a contender. From another team's perspective, he had one of the best seasons in the American League last year and has that playoff pedigree.

All things considered, trading Beckett might offer the most efficient strategy to address many of our most glaring problems, both on the field and off.

Whether it's the Rangers, the Dodgers, or the Tigers, I would love to see Beckett in another uniform by this weekend and a few prospects coming back this way. At that point, I'm fine heading into 2013 with a weaker rotation core (Lester/Buchholz/Doubront/Lackey), a solid second tier (Morales?/Chris Hernandez/etc.), and a very bright late-season horizon (Barnes/Ranaudo/Britton, who might be able to at least do a 2008 David Price impression).

#35 judyb

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Posted 24 July 2012 - 07:20 AM

Trading Salty to make room for Lavarnway is more of a punt. I'd prefer to wait till the off-season to make that move.

I think they should trade Salty if they get a good enough offer, but I don't really see them choosing to go into next season with a rookie starting C and whatever new veteran backup they can pick up. And a Shoppach re-signing makes little sense with a RHH starting C.

#36 LeoCarrillo


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Posted 24 July 2012 - 07:22 AM

You'd think Texas would like Beckett, as they're salivating for a title and just lost Colby Lewis for the year. You'd think Beckett would waive his 10/5 rights to go to his home state, get away from the Boston media/front office, and play for a contender. That frees up $17M AAV for two years and beyond.

There's your Papi money and change. And something to try and resign Ellsbury, whom I wouldn't trade till this offseason when hopefully he'll have just put up two months to suggest his 2011 is his real value. If you want to trade him, do so this offseason as the guy who was a recent runnerup MVP.

Lester is so cheap next year, $6M AAV, that I'd keep him unless he could be packaged for Josh Johnson, who also has a year left and only a $9.75 AAV.

Trading all of them is giving up on 2013, but trading Beckett or Lester and reallocating the money or getting a Johnson back, respectively, is not. (If you get an overpay from Texas for Beckett along with salary and malcontent relief.)

Edited by LeoCarrillo, 24 July 2012 - 07:23 AM.


#37 OCD SS


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Posted 24 July 2012 - 07:33 AM

Kalish, with JBJ knocking at the door. Not really satisfactory in the short term, as Kalish is borderline at best in CF, but the whole premise of trading Ellsbury is that you're not building for the short term--you're reloading for 2014, maybe even 2015, and beyond. That's contrary to the way this team has operated, but the way this team has operated has not worked terribly well of late. I don't know if Lucky is willing to go there, though.


Selling any of Ellsbury, Lester, or Beckett is tantamount to punting this season, which I really have a problem seeing this FO embrace.

That said, I'd be all for dealing Ellsbury if it could brings back a solid return. I'm not sold on 2011 being true talent rather than a fluke, and would love to sell high on him, especially if it can bring back a near-elite pitching prospect. It seems like teams are really looking for offense and/or CFers this is the market to move him in.

#38 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 24 July 2012 - 07:44 AM

It can't hurt to ask for Harper, Strasburg, Gonzalez, or Zimmerman, but I doubt they'll go for it. Nobody else they have is worth it.


Ellsbury is gone as soon as he's a UFA. Might as well get what you can for him now.

#39 DanoooME


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Posted 24 July 2012 - 08:02 AM

Rendon can't seem to stay on the field with first his shoulder and now repeated ankle injuries. I'd be nervous about that move.


Plus where does he play? The Sox just cleared the way for Middlebrooks, so I can't see keeping Rendon or moving him to another position (that the Sox really don't have open anyway) so he'd have to be flipped somewhere else for something.

#40 glennhoffmania


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Posted 24 July 2012 - 08:08 AM

So we go from kicking the tires on Sanchez and Johnson to selling off everyone from Beckett to Ellsbury. Can we all at least now accept the fact that this team should in no way be buyers and this season was a big waste?

#41 jsinger121


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Posted 24 July 2012 - 08:10 AM

Ross
Sweeney
Aviles
Albers, Padilla, Morales


All these guys should be on the block.

#42 John Marzano Olympic Hero


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Posted 24 July 2012 - 08:11 AM

The likelihood of Beckett, Lester, and Gonzales performing more to their career norms next year is reasonably high. At some point we have to have a season where we don't have multiple key players out for months at a time. When that happens, we're going to want to have some good pitchers.


Really? Why is it reasonably high for the two pitchers that you listed? I would think that both pitchers are going to be another year older and will have more innings on their arm, so that would make the likelihood not "reasonably high" at all. In fact, the way that both of them can't seem to find their fastball and are pitching in the low to mid-90s would lead a reasonable person to believe that the chances are good that neither Beckett nor Lester are going to be the bulldogs that they were two years ago.

Edit: And as to the original question, every player on the 2012 Boston Red Sox should be on the block. If the Sox FO is serious about building this team into a contender, you're not going to do so trading Albers or Sweeney or Aviles. You need to trade good players to get good players back, it's that simple.

#43 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 24 July 2012 - 08:23 AM

I think you have to put Ellsbury out there and see what the offers are. I don't see how the Sox can really resign him given the payroll situation, and the relative depth in the OF. Nevermind that Boras is his agent, but what would you offer him? Obviously he was fantastic last year, but what would you project going forward? He's not getting younger, and I sure as hell wouldn't want to pay $20M+ for his age 30+ seasons, especially when they are giving similar money to Crawford. If you can nail an Ellsbury trade, you free up cash for next year and could shorten the rebuilding process.

With so many teams involved in the playoff race, the bold move is to sell. There are a lot of buyers, put the talent out there and see what happens. Any short term hit to the "brand" is worth it if you get a successful return, and let's face it, the fan base can get over the loss of any player if the team wins.

#44 yecul


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Posted 24 July 2012 - 08:24 AM

I don't know if Lucky is willing to go there, though.


He's not. We can imo talk about what the right decision would be. Ellsbury will not be traded. He will walk as a fa and be painted as greedy going out the door with the boras boogeyman shadow being cast.

The idea hat the past few seasons are just aw shucks situations is ridiculous.

#45 someoneanywhere

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Posted 24 July 2012 - 08:25 AM

I go forward with a core of Pedroia, Gonzalez, Middlebrooks -- who, by the way, will be a gifted defender, once the game at this level slows down for him -- and Papi. Anyone else? Call me.

#46 TomRicardo


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Posted 24 July 2012 - 08:32 AM

Ross Sweeney Aviles Albers, Padilla, Morales All these guys should be on the block.


Why Morales?

#47 Toe Nash

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Posted 24 July 2012 - 08:44 AM

I'd be surprised if there was a trade out there that did much more than bring in a marginal piece. It seems like unless you're willing to hurt your chances in 2013, there's not much to trade.

In order of salary, here's the list of players whose contacts expire at the end of the year:
David Ortiz
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Cody Ross
Aaron Cook
Vicente Padilla
Kelly Shoppach

Ortiz could probably fetch something, and maybe Lavarnway takes over at DH next year, but trading him would be pretty harsh on the PR side of things. And would it fetch more than the compensation they'd get if they just let him leave (if they really want to go that path)? Plus, it seems likely he can contribute to a competitive team in 2013.

Cody Ross would seem like a good sell-high candidate, but he's also nearly perfect for Fenway. I wouldn't mind it if they extended him especially with Kalish's seeming injury-prone-ness. If they can't then sure, he's a good guy to deal.

Shoppach seems like a perfect platoon partner for Salty. I'd like to re-sign him.

Maybe they can get something for Cook and Padilla, but I dunno. Daisuke's hurt so he's off the table.

If you look at dealing guys who are signed through next year and beyond, then things get more interesting. Beckett and Lester would seem like good options, but in Lester's case you're probably at the nadir of his value. Even if you think he might not rebound, he's only signed for one more year and honestly, the possible replacements in the rotation are tough to count on. Morales? Doubront? Chase Hamels or another FA? Even if Lester is only "decent" next year he's still a bargain at $11.6 mil.

Similarly, is anyone going to chase Beckett too hard? If they wanted to change the culture of the team, they would have dealt him in the offseason. Now he's in the midst of one of his mediocre years and he's still owed $17m in both 2013 and 2014. If he pitches like we're used to he's worth that, but is someone going to trade for him right now and give you full value when he has the second-lowest K-rate of his career?

It may make some sense to trade Crawford, but I don't think he's established enough value returning from his injury (plus there are still lots of questions about his elbow).

The only guy I could consider shopping that would bring you a worthwhile return is Ellsbury. He's not likely to sign a hometown discount and his next contract will likely take him well into his 30s, at which point his speed is likely to decline and his value becomes suspect. But even then, you have to figure out what to do in center field next year (Jackie Bradley seems like the long-term solution here but he only has 32 games in Portland under his belt -- maybe he pulls a Middlebrooks and forces you to bring him up early but I doubt we see him before September 2013). And if you want to compete in 2013 Ellsbury giving you 150+ games in center seems like a big part of it.

There's no way I trade Pedroia. That's insanity unless you are doing a complete rebuild. Ciriaco isn't going to fill that hole.

So who do you deal? Ross and Sweeney? Some relievers? Is that going to make a big difference to the roster?

Edited by Toe Nash, 24 July 2012 - 08:44 AM.


#48 johnnywayback

  • 456 posts

Posted 24 July 2012 - 08:49 AM

So we go from kicking the tires on Sanchez and Johnson to selling off everyone from Beckett to Ellsbury. Can we all at least now accept the fact that this team should in no way be buyers and this season was a big waste?


Nope. If Beckett and Lester were the Beckett and Lester we had every right to expect, we'd be in pretty damn good shape right now with our biggest remaining problem (injuries decimating the outfield) solved. This wasn't a perfect team coming into the season, but "a big waste" is a big overstatement.

If the cost of replacing Beckett and Lester with starters who can approximate the performance of the guys we thought we had is too high, I'm fine with not buying. But if you just think this team is utterly screwed and can't compete with this core of extremely talented players because of fried chicken or Bobby V's big mouth or Larry Lucchino's bad mojo, then you should be for trading whoever you need to (starting with Ellsbury and Buchholz) to bring in different core pieces. Once you're done getting rid of guys who literally can't fit on the roster, selling the likes of Ryan Sweeney and Aaron Cook accomplishes nothing to help us either this year or anytime in the future.


Personally, I'm willing to give Beckett and Lester the rest of the season to turn back into the guys we used to have before I decide the core simply isn't going to compete. Which means I vote "stand pat," as frustrating as that is.

#49 86spike


  • Currently enjoying "Arli$$"


  • 21995 posts

Posted 24 July 2012 - 09:01 AM

Ortiz could probably fetch something, and maybe Lavarnway takes over at DH next year, but trading him would be pretty harsh on the PR side of things. And would it fetch more than the compensation they'd get if they just let him leave (if they really want to go that path)? Plus, it seems likely he can contribute to a competitive team in 2013.


I was thinking about Ortiz as a decent trade chip (in a PR-spinless vacuum of course), but the problem is very few of the AL "contenders" are in need of a DH. Maybe Oakland or TB would want him. But Oakland rarely overpays and TB would be sending him to an AL East rival. I doubt they move him.

#50 NDame616


  • will bailey


  • 983 posts

Posted 24 July 2012 - 09:01 AM

Do people really think we are going to get a lot for Aviles or Sweeney? Sure, I guess they "should" be traded because no one has any real attachment to them, but I think many people are saying that we shoudl trade them because they're players no fan really cares about....and for good reason.

Aviles, since a hot April, is batting .250 and has an OPS of .639 since the start of May. I also don't know much we can get for a RF'er with an OPS south of .700. I suppose someone could want him to help out a platoon, be a LH pinch hitter, but I can't imagine anyone giving us much for him.

However, we do have a righ fielder who's 3rd among AL RFs in home runs, and has a WS MVP to boot. I think we could probably bring in something pretty good for him.

Regarding Ellsbury, I don't think he will be traded. I think from a marketing standpoint, the front office will want to keep him. Pink hats and those singing Sweet Caroline every game don't care what prospect we get in return, and won't care if he will be a stud in 2014. They'll be pissed he's gone.