31 replies to this topic

[wutang112878]

It seems as though are offseason is basically over. We will certainly add some more guys but they are not going to be difference makers and wont be in the top 9 of the rotation.

To summarize where we stand with the roster:

We lost:

• Ray
• Probably Stiems
• JJ, Moore, Pavlovic, and Williams (not huge losses)

We can probably assume (at least IMO):

• Rondo might be able to play more games, but probably cant put up better numbers per game/minute during the regular season, he was great on the whole last year, just frustrating at time from a
• KG and PP will probably need more rest, and we will be fortunate if they are as productive on a per minute basis
• We have some additions that should help compensate for the last point

We gained:

• Green - assuming he is healthy and doesnt have much rust with a year away from basketball, he should be a big addition
• Terry - can play the 1 and 2, and probably just as important provide scoring off the bench
• Lee - can step in for Bradley for the first half of the season and then if both are healthy Doc has some high class problems with playing time
• Wilcox - similar to Green, hopefully he is healthy and can contribute and should provide quality 4/5 depth
• Sully - looks like he can contribute this year
• Melo - who Doc just said will probably be a project all year and will probably not help that much this year, so not much gain here

The way I see things:

• The loss of Ray, considering he is 37, coming off surgery and is likely to decline, is probably not a net loss considering the additions of Lee and Terry over the course of the season. The one question mark I have is will we have a dangerous enough 3pt threat to make opponents concerned? To be fair, even if we got Ray back that would be a concern of mine to a degree as well
• I think that the addition of Lee and Terry can compensate for the loss of Ray and possibly provide some additional production.
• So the question becomes can the addition of Green [assuming health and minimal rust] and Sully, compensate for the assumed reduction in production from KG and PP? I am assuming Doc will limit their minutes to keep them fresh, so on a per minute basis they will probably be as productive as last year, but they both probably need to play about 30 a game, which means we need more production from the bench.
• The biggest variable I see, is what we should expect in terms of production from PP and KG? Can KG still do the 6 on, 6 off plan for a full 82 games? Does PP need a similar plan? From a production per minute perspective even if they go with conservative plans like these can we expect similar production on a per minute basis, or should we expect a reasonable decline of say 10-20% as well? Personally, I cant think of any logical way to estimate this and would love to hear some ideas

As a side-note, I wish Red was still with us so he could, in typical Red fashion over Chinese food, tell Danny 'I told you so' with regards to Danny's 'Red should have broken up the original Big3 sooner' quote. I am sure Red would have enjoyed telling Danny 'Its not so easy to break a decent team up huh?'

Edited by wutang112878, 21 July 2012 - 09:54 AM.

[bsj]

I love the fact that one AB returns

Terry
Green
Lee
Sullinger
Wilcox/Melo

Are our 2nd unit, probably the best 6-10 on the league and probably are a better starting 5 than at least a handful of NBA clubs.
I also like the idea of Joseph as a 12th man.

I get that its Miami's title to lose. But IF health factors break our way this team IS really right there to compete for a championshipn

Edited by bsj, 21 July 2012 - 10:03 AM.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Umm, yes.

[Ed Hillel]

Is this a real question? The big issue is really going to be KG, since Pierce was poor in the playoffs due to his health anyway. It's impossible to say if KG will be as good as he was in the playoffs last year, but the supporting cast is clearly, and I mean clearly, better. Llike ten times better.

[Nick Kaufman]

Even if Pierce was poorer during the Playoffs due to ill health - and btw, he didn't have a good series vs Miami in 2011 either- that doesn't mean age won't affect him next year. Dude's gonna be 35 this October. 35!

[Ed Hillel]

Even if Pierce was poorer during the Playoffs due to ill health - and btw, he didn't have a good series vs Miami in 2011 either- that doesn't mean age won't affect him next year. Dude's gonna be 35 this October. 35!

You're missing my point. He wasn't good in the playoffs, so it's not like he has to play at peak performance to play at the level he was in the playoffs last year. The question "can Pierce continue to play at a high level" isn't applicable, at least for the playoffs, because he didn't last year.

As much as I love Pierce, I really don't believe that his health is necesssary for this team anymore. There are players on the bench who could put up very good numbers in his stead. The keys are KG and Rondo. If KG goes down, all bets are off.

Edited by Ed Hillel, 21 July 2012 - 11:41 AM.

[bankshot1]

If KG and PP both stay relatively healthy, this appears to be a much deeper team.
The areas of concern for me are
1-depth at 4/5, if KG gets hurt, the Cs are screwed, unless the rookies develop quickly Sulllinger may help in season 1, ut Melo, according to Doc, will not,
2-Will the longer schedule hurt the Cs? IMO the shorter season benfitted the Cs older legs An 82 game season and deep play-off run may sorely test Garnett and Pierce.

But to answer the question, While hte Cs may not reach the ECF, IMO they are deeper and better.

[Nick Kaufman]

Point taken, but we still need for Pierce to not decline as much, because while our team was hobbled during last year's playoffs, most of our competition was hobbled too. So if we assume that everyone is healthy, we not only need to improve more than the team we faced and lost to in the ECF, but we need to improve more than their healthy version, since the point is not just hang around with them, but beat them. The same applies with the Chicago Bulls who -if healthy- I also think it's safe to say would have been favorites if we faced them last year.

Now, since chances are not an either/or proposition, but more of a probabilities continuum, we definitely increased our odds of beating these teams during a playoff series. But are going to enter that series as a favorite? More likely than not, no, we are still going to be underdogs. And the chance of entering the series as favorites.... depends of Pierce and Garnett being as close to their good selves as is humanly possible.

Edited by Nick Kaufman, 21 July 2012 - 11:48 AM.

[JakeRae]

I'm going to use the team that played Miami as a point of comparison.

PG: Rondo should improve a little as he is just 26. Terry is a significantly better player than Dooling and is comfortable running an offense off the bench. This is a moderate upgrade.

SG: Ray is a better shooter than Lee but Lee has shot over .400 from three in three of his four seasons. Ray is also a more efficient overall scorer. Playoff Ray Allen was none of these things and was a terrible player whose only value was in his understanding of the game and the system. Lee also brings youth and athleticism to the position and a significantly better overall defensive skill set. Bradley, once healthy, offers a world class defensive presence and a solid overall offensive game. Terry can also slid over and play minutes here meaning that the bench is once again massively upgraded over last year. Compared to the playoff team, this isn't close. Compared to the regular season team, some offense has been lost from the starting unit, but not as much as the names involved might lead one to believe, offense has been added to the bench, and the defense is improved across the board. Very significant upgrade.

SF: Pierce will probably take a small step back from his regular season performance but will be better than his injured playoff self. Green is a huge asset that allows Pierce to stay rested and gives starter quality minutes off the bench. Significant upgrade relative to the playoff squad, moderate relative to the regular season.

PF: Bass is back and should be expected to be the same player he has been. Both Green and Sullinger are much better than playoff Stiemsma and Hollins. They are better than regular season Stiemsma too, but the gap lessens a bit. Moderate upgrade.

C: KG is back but we should expect some amount of decline. Wilcox looked very good off the bench and should hopefully be able to duplicate that. Draw to slight downgrade. (Wilcox improves the bench which should help offset the decline of KG.)

With 4 of 5 positions looking stronger than they were last year, this thread could more appropriately ask "How much better are the Celtics than last year?"

[JakeRae]

Point taken, but we still need for Pierce to not decline as much, because while our team was hobbled during last year's playoffs, most of our competition was hobbled too. So if we assume that everyone is healthy, we not only need to improve more than the team we faced and lost to in the ECF, but we need to improve more than their healthy version, since the point is not just hang around with them, but beat them. The same applies with the Chicago Bulls who -if healthy- I also think it's safe to say would have been favorites if we faced them last year.

Now, since chances are not an either/or proposition, but more of a probabilities continuum, we definitely increased our odds of beating these teams during a playoff series. But are going to enter that series as a favorite? More likely than not, no, we are still going to be underdogs. And the chance of entering the series as favorites.... depends of Pierce and Garnett being as close to their good selves as is humanly possible.

Pierce will almost certainly decline, but Green's presence means his minutes can be significantly reduced. (If you look at the position rather than just Pierce, it's very hard to imagine the team being anything other than improved. Green is light years better at basketball than is Pietrus. Terry's presence also means Pierce won't be asked to play the point anywhere near as often. Between these two factors, I think Doc will be able to keep Pierce fresher and healthier over the course of the season and he will hopefully be able to maintain his per-minute performance level, or close to it. It's been a few years since he's been a player that really relied heavily on his athleticism, so I don't think we should be too concerned about a rapid decline.

[Witters]

The new bench is a vast improvement. The bigger question to my mind is if the rest of the Eastern Conference got better. Miami has had about as good an offseason as a healthy and relatively young defending champ can have. Indiana looks to be worse next season, and Chicago's fate hinges on Rose's health. Brooklyn is of course an interesting wild card, and I'm not too worried about the Knicks. The Celtics are in a much better position than I would have expected even optimistically.

[TOleary25]

This bench is the best in the league on paper. It will be interesting to see how Doc juggles his lineups because there are so many options. What I'm most looking forward to is the transition offense of this bench. Rondo playing with Lee, Green, Sullinger, and Wilcox could make for some great fast break opportunities.

[Brickowski]

They're certainly better on paper. But Garnett and Pierce have to stay healthy, and part of that is getting decent performances from Green and Sullinger, so that KG and Paul can get plenty of rest.

[wutang112878]

Ok, maybe I am somewhat pessimistic. I agree with the general consensus that the bench is much, much better than it was last year, no doubt about that. My major concerns are with our best 3 players:

• Rondo, he is still very young and durable, but from a pure production standpoint I cant see him improving upon the season he had last year
• KG - will be 37 when the season starts, has played in the league for 17 years and has done everything at 100% [a great quality, but doesnt help with wear and tear]
• PP - will be 35 at the start of the season, has played in the league for 14 seasons, and while he has been amazingly durable he has been a little less durable the past few years

Again, maybe I am being overly pessimistic, but I am very concerned that PP and KG are going to age somewhat quickly before our eyes. If Danny let them go I would have been the first to say this was a classic 'let them go a year early instead of a year late' move.

I realize we are all very excited about the new additions, but I have to admit I am somewhat surprised that there isnt more concern about the age and effectiveness of our best players.

[Jed Zeppelin]

You could have said the exact same things about KG last year at 36. I don't think you can expect or assume decline from him until it actually happens. He is a freak of nature.

As for Rondo not getting better...so the fuck what? He was and is awesome.

I am I tad worried about Pierce but the guy directly behind him is starter quality and should be able to cover a lot of minutes to keep PP fresh.

Edited by Jed Zeppelin, 21 July 2012 - 02:26 PM.

[collings94]

KG was great last season, but it took a long time for him to get going. Allen and Terry are about even, except maybe Ray is a little more cerebreal then Terry. Green is the big thing that can really help the team, his best trait is his versatility, something the C's really need. Lee and Sullinger, plus a healthy Wilcox insures a much deeper bench. C's are better off not only this year, but they are a lot better off for the next 3-5 years.

Edited by collings94, 21 July 2012 - 05:18 PM.

[soxfan121]

Will the C's finish with a better regular season record? Almost assuredly - provided KG stays healthy, plays 30+ minutes a game and doesn't decline in performance off a "contract year". Will the C's finish with better results in the playoffs? Questionable - 82 games will wear down the older players (KG, Pierce & Terry) and the competition is aging INTO their primes, while the Celtics best players are aging out of their primes.

I do think the regular season will provide lots of optimism for the playoffs and I expect those expectations will come crashing down because KG, Pierce and/or Terry will get worn down and/or injured.

I would not place a bet on KG being healthier or better than he was last year. And as identified above, if KG is injured or less effective, the Celtics are going nowhere, fast.

[bradmahn]

On the question of whether the longer season will be a problem for this team, I think there are at least three points that are positives for the Celtics:

• An extended training camp. KG was adamant early in the season that chemistry and continuity (and, one suspects, conditioning) were affected by the hastened start to the season following the lockout. More practice means a higher quality product on the court, and a potentially better start to the season.
• More off days. While fewer games probably helped, a more condensed schedule may have offset any of that advantage. The Cs played nearly an entire season's worth of back-to-backs (by my quick count, 16) last season, in nearly three fewer months, than in 2010-11 (a total of 19). Tying into the first point, that led to fewer practices mid-season, and, obviously, fewer off days.
• A deeper bench. With the additions of Lee, Terry, Sullinger, and Green, the Celtics should be able to build and sustain leads, thereby allowing the starters to retire to the bench early, or, in the least, allowing them to "catch a blow" for longer. Green, Sullinger, and Wilcox could be huge in minimizing the wear-and-tear on Pierce and Garnett.

I don't think the regular regular season will have a negative effect on the Celtics this season.

[BostonFan23]

Not that it makes that big of a difference, but KG just turned 36.

[Koufax]

The odd thing is that at the start of the season last year, the bench looked quite deep. Two heart surgeries later, not so much.

[JakeRae]

KG was great last season, but it took a long time for him to get going. Allen and Terry are about even, except maybe Ray is a little more cerebreal then Terry. Green is the big thing that can really help the team, his best trait is his versatility, something the C's really need. Lee and Sullinger, plus a healthy Wilcox insures a much deeper bench, plus I think Moore is going to become a solid role player this year. C's are better off not only this year, but they are a lot better off for the next 3-5 years.

How would Moore becoming a solid player this year help the Celtics?

[JohnnyTheBone]

How would Moore becoming a solid player this year help the Celtics?

Forget it, he's rolling.

[Brickowski]

I have concerns about the durability of the older players too, but Doc will have to coach more like Popovich and give guys nights off. The bench (on paper) is plenty good enough to get away with that.

[SoxFanPJ]

It strikes me that depth on an aging team is much more important then on a team whose key players are in their prime. This seems obvious, but depth has been an issue in recent years.

There are some big health question marks, assuming all Pierce's knee needs is rest and rehab and assuming rehab after surgery makes Bradley's shoulder strong enough to prevent a recurrence, this squad has me really excited. Realistically they are still a Center short, but that has been a consistent issue and the O'Neal approaches didn't work.

With thee improved depth they need to rest Pierce and Garnett much more in the regular season, to me the most interesting question is if it will be simply a minutes restriction or if we will see some DNP-CD. If Doc keeps them in street clothes in the second game of back to backs or every other week, it may be the better approach because in the heat of game action it seems likely that minute limits go out the window.

[Zososoxfan]

I don't necessarily think Rondo will improve this year, but he started to show more consistency and what I thought looked like confidence in his midrange jumper in the playoffs last year (fg % went from .448 in the regular season to .468 in the postseason, not the best metric I know). If Rondo can knock down jumpers at a decent clip and force defenders to not sag off him as much, it would make him much harder to defend and would likely lead to a statistical improvement.

As others have said, the bench is substantially improved, so overall the team has more talent and athleticism than last year's squad.

[Clears Cleaver]

I think Sullinger starts at the 4 by season's end, maybe even sooner. His game fits in with the starters well

[PedrosRedGlove]

With thee improved depth they need to rest Pierce and Garnett much more in the regular season, to me the most interesting question is if it will be simply a minutes restriction or if we will see some DNP-CD. If Doc keeps them in street clothes in the second game of back to backs or every other week, it may be the better approach because in the heat of game action it seems likely that minute limits go out the window.

I hope we see a lot of this, maybe not DNPs, but I wouldn't mind seeing KG or Pierce sitting out halves, although I'm guessing the biggest obstacle to a plan like that is their own willingness to voluntarily sit out playing time. To me, at this point the number one priority of this team is getting into the playoff tournament. I know home court is nice, but the most important thing is getting everyone into the playoffs healthy and rested. I think this could also provide the added benefit of letting Rondo and the younger players and the second unit getting more playing time to develop chemistry together. Having a second unit that plays well together would also be a huge advantage come playoff time.

[lexrageorge]

Chauncy Billups' best seasons were when he was in his late 20's and early 30's. He played a huge role in Detroit's title in 2004, when he turned 27, and he was 29 when he played in his first All Star Game. The suggestion that Rondo will not improve next season because he's now 26 is ludicrous.

[Reardons Beard]

On paper? Absolutely.

[TheoShmeo]

I think it's a slam dunk that they're better when the season starts than they were during the Miami series.

The biggest problems for last year's team at the end was the need to pile huge minutes on KG, Pierce and Allen being limited and tired, and Bradley being out. And with all of those problems, last year's team was still tied with the eventual champion at the end of the third quarter of game 7 of the ECF.

Let's take the issues one at a time:

- Instead of Hollins and a hobbled Stiesma, KG will have Wilcox, Collins and Melo to back him up and take minutes at 5. The drop off between him and them is wide, but he should be able to go to the bench without almost every lead immediately evaporating, especially if Wilcox picks up where he left off before going out with his heart ailment.

- Pierce will now have Jeff Green to back him up at small forward. There will also be times when they go small and can use one of Terry, Bradley or Lee in Pierce's spot. Similarly, Bass can play some small forward with Sullinger or one of the back-up centers is in Bass' spot. Joseph might even play a role in the overall.

- Bradley should come back healthy at some point but with Terry and Lee, they have much more depth off the bat than they had with Bradley out and Allen as limited as he was. If and when Bradley returns to full strength, his presence alone is likely to make a huge difference. The Celts were positively electric for a stretch in March when KG had adjusted to the five spot and Bradley was playing big minutes at 2. True, Doc will have his hands full finding time for his impressive four-pack of guards, but that's a nice problem to have.

Now all of this optimism perhaps naively assumes a level of health for next year's team, but the amount of depth they have at most positions should allow them to absorb some hits.

Edited by TheoShmeo, 23 July 2012 - 01:41 PM.

[04101Seadog]

I think one point that will help the Celtics be improved over last year is the change in the offense that will come from the loss of Ray. Gone will be watching Rondo dribbling around while ray runs off multiple screens, only to not give him the pass and be stuck with 8-10 seconds on the shot clock. The offense should have a smoother flow with the passing of KG and Sully and with Lee and green being able to get open near the basket it should help their games as well.

In addition a major plus will be the ability for the C's to get out on the break and have some folks ahead of Rondo who can finish. Green, Lee, and Bradley will be great to watch and even someone like Christmas or Joseph would look good if they can crack the roster. There was one game I remember where Bradley started on the foul line when Rondo picked up a turnover, and both Bradley and his man sprinted back, but before half court Bradley had 2 steps on the guy and broke away like his hair was on fire on his way in for the dunk. It was awesome to see, and something we missed terribly against Miami.

[Saints Rest]

I think that once Bradley returns at full strength (and hopefully without any injuries to RR, JT, or CL), Doc will have a great set of combinations to use at guard.

RR + AB = shut down defense and overall speed
JT + CL = size and offense
and then everything in between.