64 replies to this topic

[mabrowndog]

I'm astonished by how far this guy has fallen -- from finishing 2010 as one of the three best lefties in baseball (with Sabathia & Price), to an average (or worse) MLB pitcher in 2012 whose stuff fools few batters and who consistently bitches and glares at umps over perceived slights and tiny strike zones. Obviously the former is far more of a concern than the latter.

Aside from his BB/9 and K/BB, every other peripheral has gone in the wrong direction over the past year and a half. Michael Barr of Fangraphs wrote a great piece in mid-May with plenty of graphics to illustrate that we're seeing a very different pitcher:

Lester’s 3.71 ERA and 1.27 WHIP aren’t vintage Lester — what fantasy baseball enthusiasts might expect from him – but well within the realm of reality for Lester’s career. And in terms of luck, his predictors are pretty much in agreement with his FIP at 3.52, xFIP at 3.99 and SIERA at 4.17. But he’s getting his outs in a decidedly different manner this season (so far) and color me just a little concerned about the observable trends.

Barr went on to cite how batters' contact rates have steadily risen while his swinging strike and K% have precipitously declined. Further analysis showed an increased reliance on sinkers over cutters, especially when ahead in the count 0-2. Lester was also shown to be far less effective against LHH.

That was then, and it was bad enough. Now, nearly 2 months later, it's far worse. In his last 11 starts since May 19, he's posted a 5.65 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 65.1 innings while opposing hitters have creamed him at a .306/.345/.504/.849 clip. That not-so-awful 3.71 season ERA at press time (on the heels of a 1-run CG win over the pathetic Mariners) now sits at 4.80 through tonight's stinker. Even taking into account that 8 of those starts were in Fenway with 2 others in bandboxes (Wrigley & Citizens Bank), he's come up far short of the #3 starter label, let alone ace or #2.

I'm at a loss to explain how or why he's morphed into a pumpkin so quickly without resorting to talk radio critiques of his attitude and work ethic. Next year his salary climbs another 4 bills, from $7.625M to $11.625M. With a $13M option looming for 2014, I have a hard time seeing Lester as part of this club beyond next season.

Edited by mabrowndog, 18 July 2012 - 07:57 AM.

[bosockboy]

He's lost that cutter....he lived off it. Velocity is down also.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Looks like a pretty significant velocity drop off in the latter half of his start tonight:



There's some categorization weirdness that leaves us with an avg sinker speed faster than an avg four-seam speed, but there's definitely nothing better than 93 after pitch 50, which is a far cry from the power pitcher we saw in 2010. Check this game, July 18, 2010, against the Rangers:



I don't even care what the result was that night - just notice that there are 25 pitches at 95 or higher, including pitch 119.

Where is the heater? Where is the power pitcher we used to know?

Edit: And I checked - the Rangers game was at Fenway. Same gun.

Edited by MyDaughterLovesTomGordon, 17 July 2012 - 09:57 PM.

[BlackSox Jack]

Loss of velocity and lack of fastball command makes him very hittable. May be the poster boy for cutter-reliance driving mph loss.

[StuckOnYouk]

The 3-2 pitch that Youkilis hammered tonight was 93mph. At a time where he needed to rear back and get a little extra, all that he could muster was 93 mph.

Does this have anything to do with him carrying extra weight? Not in shape? would anyone be suprised by this after last year?

[Laser Show]

Farrell, who played an important role in Lester's development, left after the 2010 season. How much of it could be that?

[TheoShmeo]

I asked the question in the Morales thread and I'll ask it again here: Why is Lester ahead of Morales on the starter depth chart? I know Lester's career accomplishments support that. And I know that Morales has had only a handful of starts and has innings count issues.

But Morales has had one bad start as a Red Sox and the team just doesn't win very often when Lester takes the ball and hasn't since the middle of last season. In short, it just seems wrong for a guy who has performed as well as Morales has to get bumped to the pen while Lester continues to underperform.

[The Gray Eagle]

The Red Sox have lost 16 of Lester's last 23 starts, going back to 9/11/11. That's obviously not all his fault, but it's a pathetic record for long time. Especially for a guy who used to make his team a good bet to win every time he took the mound.

Edited by The Gray Eagle, 17 July 2012 - 10:22 PM.

[Kull]

Check this game, July 18, 2010, against the Rangers:

...just notice that there are 25 pitches at 95 or higher, including pitch 119.

Where is the heater? Where is the power pitcher we used to know?

Edit: And I checked - the Rangers game was at Fenway. Same gun.

Here's what's funny. According to pitch f/x, he threw 4 cutters that night. Count 'em. 4. On the other hand the majority (73) were four seam fastballs which averaged 93.7, and that was over 8 innings. By contrast, the 7/3/12 game versus Oakland - not a bad start by 2012 Lester standards - showed that he relied on the 4-seamer for only 27 of 107 pitches, and the velocity averaged 91.6 mph - and none hit 95. Obviously a pretty small sample size, but even ignoring the velocity drop, the most surprising thing is the percentage mix of pitches he's using during games. In the 2010 game, he relied on one pitch 61% of the time. By contrast, in the 7/3/12 game it was 29 of 107 (27%). That's quite a change - almost like he's randomly throwing shit at the wall hoping something will stick.

(Not that it matters a lot, but both games were 4-2 losses so we're not cherrypicking vastly different outcomes)

[koufax32]

Here's what's funny. According to pitch f/x, he threw 4 cutters that night. Count 'em. 4. On the other hand the majority (73) were four seam fastballs which averaged 93.7, and that was over 8 innings. By contrast, the 7/3/12 game versus Oakland - not a bad start by 2012 Lester standards - showed that he relied on the 4-seamer for only 27 of 107 pitches, and the velocity averaged 91.6 mph - and none hit 95. Obviously a pretty small sample size, but even ignoring the velocity drop, the most surprising thing is the percentage mix of pitches he's using during games. In the 2010 game, he relied on one pitch 61% of the time. By contrast, in the 7/3/12 game it was 29 of 107 (27%). That's quite a change - almost like he's randomly throwing shit at the wall hoping something will stick.

(Not that it matters a lot, but both games were 4-2 losses so we're not cherrypicking vastly different outcomes)

There's definite correlation but which is the cause and which is the effect?

I've been saying cutter related velocity drop for awhile. I believe that drop has caused a lack of confidence in the heater. Man, I miss the days of him pumping those fbs in at 97 in the first two or three innings.

[Drek717]

Really seems like time for Lester to catch the Hellenic flu and work his shit out in AAA while Morales gets a real shot to start. I'm sure one of the other starters will be hurt before too long and Lester would be needed to fill out a starting 5, but right now he's a detriment to the team.

[SouthernBoSox]

The velocity is down some, but the biggest issue is his cutter. I don't think people really understand how dominant of a pitch it was for him and just how much he relied on it. Can you imagine having the success he had at essentially every level mainly do to the help of one outstanding pitch and above average velocity only to lose both of those attributes within a year?

He has to be terrified. Going from a cutter, fastball, curve, change pitcher to a sinker, change, curve pitcher is completely new to him. His change isn't good enough to be a second pitch and his command isn't good enough to not have a great secondary pitch. The dude is in absolute limbo right now. He can't scare lefties with his cutter/fastball, he absolutely cannot get in on righties, and he is being forced to throw his change (his previously worst off speed pitch) in the biggest situations of the game.

He can be successful at this velocity and command, but it is completely dependent on the restoration of his cutter.

[Dick Pole Upside]

Without meaning to sound like a talk show idiot, to my eyes it boils down to Command and Confidence. Both have evaporated. He just can't seem to place the ball where he needs to (irrespective of pitch type and velocity), and it's visibly gotten into his head. I think this begets the growing reliance on cutters as a means of "searching" for something... anything. And the frustration is visible. I wish I could say I'm empathetic, but he's just been a massive disappointment.

[ctsoxfan5]

One counterpoint -- in his last 9 starts, he has 57 Ks and 11 BBs in 55.1 IP. So even without the cutter, he's striking out more than a batter per inning.

For the season, his FIP is actually lower than 2011 and his xFIP is nearly identical. His BABIP is at a career high and his LOB% is at a career low. Both have been even worse in June and July.

But I don't think you can just chalk it up to bad luck on BABIP. His LD% is way up to 23.5% after three years in the 16-18% range.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

To hell with FIP, the dude is Lackey II Electric Suck-A-Loo. If he's going to pitch like this he's wortheless to this club. That HR he allowed to Youkilis was on a pitch that was supposed to be on the outer corner of the plate. Instead it was a 93 MPH cookie right down the middle.

He's been awful for 11 starts now, so the "bad luck" argument holds no water with me. He's got a 5.65 ERA over this last 11 starts. He's killing this team. He's not making adjustments to get better. And he was a huge part of the problem in last year's collapse. Is he in shape? Is he battling arm trouble? Is he just another dumb jock too stubborn to make adjustments when his shit isn't working?

He's by far the most disappointing player in a year filled with nothing but disappointments.

[cahlton]

If he's not injured--and nobody's saying he is--then this would seem to be a question of mechanics. Where is McClure in all of this?

[erfus]

Is Lester really throwing as many sinkers as the pitch f/x data indicates? He's never been a sinkerballer, he was a power pitcher that didn't pitch to contact. If it's not just a glitch which is misidentifying one of his pitches, it seems to me that a possibility is that he DID make an adjustment to pitch to contact which is not working out very well at all. His BB/9 is about as low as it has ever been. That may be because he's been wild in the strike zone, but if that's the case: loss of command + loss of velocity.= just about have to be an injury

[AB in DC]

The changes in pitch selection from 2011 to 2012 make me wonder how much of his past success was helped by Jason Varitek's preparation/pitch-calling.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I wonder if the "wild in the strike zone, instead of out of it" stuff has to do with real or perceived issues about Salty's ability to frame pitches. Certainly the difference in career ISO throwing to Salty vs. Tek is pretty pronounced (.114 to Tek, .179 to Salty). Of course it could just be that Salty started catching him just as his stuff went south, but there could also be a different kind of correlation there. Maybe he's pitching to contact because that's one way of getting around confidence issues in his catcher. Just a thought.

Another interesting thing: even though his walk rate is his best in years, his Zone% is his worst ever--40.9% or 44.7%, depending on which of Fangraphs' dueling numbers you pick. Either way, the lowest of his career, and well below league average. When you combine that with the low walk rate, the picture emerges of a guy who keeps getting behind and then grooving pitches to avoid running his pitch count up--but of course this doesn't work, because a guy who hits a rocket can up your pitch count too.

[Toe Nash]

Interesting to me is his poor performance with runners on:
Bases empty: .327 OBP, .409 SLG, 9.05 K/9, 0.57 HR/9
Runners on: .338 OBP, .500 SLG, 5.87 K/9, 1.34 HR/9

This is leading to his very low LOB%:
For his career he's at 75%, league average is 72.6%, and yet, even though he still has a good strikeout rate, he's at just 65.7% since his strikeout rate is terrible with runners on.

This was a problem that plagued Javier Vazquez for years, but it's never been an issue with Lester before. Does his command / stuff suck out of the stretch? Or is it bad luck? (Probably a combination).

This also seems like something that a good pitching coach should be helping with.

[Al Zarilla]

One counterpoint -- in his last 9 starts, he has 57 Ks and 11 BBs in 55.1 IP. So even without the cutter, he's striking out more than a batter per inning.

Man, this sounds a lot like the Tim Lincecum "yeahbuts" during his even worse than Lester year this year. His K/9 this year has been typical of his career, so they were saying "it's still in there". Tim had a great game Saturday (OK, Houston) and it was all due to his keeping the ball down/putting the ball where he wanted to. He didn't get back to the 94 - 95 fastball of his CY years, more like 90. That's what Lester has to get back to: command, control, whatever you want to call it. Plenty of outstanding pitchers pitch at his current fastball velocity.

Why is he giving up on the cutter though? Can't command it?

Finally, the Giants have a long term, highly respected pitching coach in Righetti. When he goes out to the mound, Giants pitchers listen to him. They'd better. I wonder if any of the Sox pitchers listen to McClure, or even consider him an asset.

[sachilles]

Certainly I'm left wondering what the absence of Varitek contributes to this situation, along with the other starting staff. Salty and Tuck are really the only hold overs from last year. Unsure what relationship Tuck has with the starting staff.
While preparation may be a factor, the change in velocity seems to really start after the 9 inning game against Seattle. It appears that he is using more CH at the expense of FB's.
Fatigue?

[DanoooME]

Is he having issues with pitching out of the stretch? Because his split is much worse than the league as a whole.

Lester & AL - Windup (---) vs. Stretch (Men On)

Bases Occupied
Lester
Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
---	19	281	264	4	75	17	2	4	0	0	16	63	3.94	.284	.327	.409	.736	108	0	1	0	0	0	2	.360	90	108
Men On	19	220	194	59	54	13	3	8	7	2	17	35	2.06	.278	.338	.500	.838	97	13	3	1	5	2	2	.295	113	122
Bases Occupied
AL
Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
---	1266	27344	25090	765	6254	1280	105	764	0	0	2055	5514	2.68	.249	.311	.400	.711	10036	0	193	0	0	0	213	.292	95	101
Men On	1265	20772	18130	4803	4748	941	94	586	843	315	1858	3730	2.01	.262	.332	.421	.754	7635	1038	222	230	329	249	239	.294	107	101

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[roundegotrip]

His overall HR rate per plate appearance is actually better than the AL average, but he's given up 2/3 of his homers with men on base, way off the pace set by the rest of the league. Lester obviously has some mechanical/physical issues going on with his drop in velocity and the loss of his cutter, but between the bases empty BABIP and the HR rate out of the stretch, might there be some bad luck in this half season sample making things look even worse than they actually are?

[mabrowndog]

In his last 11 starts since May 19, he's posted a 5.65 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 65.1 innings while opposing hitters have creamed him at a .306/.345/.504/.849 clip. That not-so-awful 3.71 season ERA at press time (on the heels of a 1-run CG win over the pathetic Mariners) now sits at 4.80 through tonight's stinker.

Just to update the above:

In his last 12 starts since May 19, he's posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 69.1 innings while opposing hitters have creamed him at a .318/.364/.552/.916 clip. That not-so-awful 3.71 season ERA at press time (on the heels of a 1-run CG win over the pathetic Mariners) now sits at 5.46 through today's debacle.

[Nuf Ced]

It definitely raises a red flag when Lester, who once had one of the best cutters in mlb, throws 94 pitches in yesterday's game and only 3 of them were the cut fastball according to PitchFX.

http://www.brooksbas...1/&prevDate=722

Why is he relying on his sinker so much more when his success has been as a strikeout pitcher, not a groundball pitcher? Where is the confidence in and command of his cutter? That's the mystery to me.

[Van Everyman]

Bradford has a good piece up right now on Lester and Beckett's struggles. Much of the relevant stuff on Lester:

When asked if this has been something out of the blue, one of those breaking down the situation said these are issues that have gotten progressively worse over the last two years. Here is the good news in regards to Lester: While he has totaled a 15.62 ERA over his last three starts (21 earned runs, 12 1/3 innings), not going more than 4 1/3 innings in any of the outings, a cause for the woes might have been identified. Three separate major league voices, all of whom have an extensive history of analyzing the Sox lefty, came to the same conclusion when asked by WEEI.com what is wrong with Lester.
According to the trio, this doesn't appear to be a physical issue (which both Lester and the Red Sox have continuously stated), and neither the velocity or overall stuff has disappeared to the point of diminishing returns. (And, just for good measure, another former major leaguer who made a living identifying pitch-tipping said Lester is not tipping his pitches.)
There is a consensus. Three takes, one consistent conclusion:
-- When delivering the ball, Lester is throwing his lead leg out toward the plate instead of executing more of a straight, more compact, up-and-down motion.
-- The leg kick is leaving his front foot to drift toward the right. ("Sometimes his toe was pointing toward the Blue Jays dugout," said one of those analyzing the situation.) One of the results of such an approach is opening up his body to the hitter well before he should, allowing the hitter to get a great look at what is being delivered. Blue Jays hitters whispered after the game that every curveball the starter threw could be easily identified.
-- Another result of letting his lead leg drift out and and over is Lester's arm slot dropping, which causes both a lack of command and the flattening out of his fastball. A delivery that included a more straight-up, down-and-through motion would automatically force a more over-the-top arm angle, not allowing the lefty to throw across his body.

Includes a good quote from Farrell:

"The one thing that through our reports and through seeing him earlier in the year, there has been a little bit more of a tendency to miss over the plate and miss up in the strike zone," Blue Jays manager John Farrell said. "The devastating cutter that he has had for so long might not be as sharp right now, so it gains a little length in the break to it. So I think our hitters are able to see it a little bit earlier in the flight to home plate. We laid off some pitches, but we didn't miss many when they found their way into the middle of the plate.
"That's not a typical day for Jon Lester by any means. He's a damn good pitcher, a talented one. As we've seen from our own guys, they go through stretches where things aren't clicking. It just goes to show you that the elite in this game ride a little bit of a fine line when their performances are consistent and well above-average to days when they scuffle, and that was one today."

I suppose this makes me feel better.

[mwonow]

Looking at the stats quoted by DanoooME above, it sure looks like he's tipping something when he's in the stretch. Is that a function of how he delivers pitches when he's not winding up? How he holds his glove? Or is Salty making it easy for guys on base to see what's coming?

EDIT: I see Van's comments saying this isn't the case. But - if three guys looking at Lester can immediately see what's wrong, what's the deal with our own pitching coach?

Edited by mwonow, 23 July 2012 - 09:43 AM.

[Savin Hillbilly]

It definitely raises a red flag when Lester, who once had one of the best cutters in mlb, throws 94 pitches in yesterday's game and only 3 of them were the cut fastball according to PitchFX.

http://www.brooksbas...2F&prevDate=722

Why is he relying on his sinker so much more when his success has been as a strikeout pitcher, not a groundball pitcher? Where is the confidence in and command of his cutter? That's the mystery to me.

The funny part is that so many people here have been saying that the cutter is the problem and proposing that he shelve it.

A couple of trends that jump out on his brooksbaseball player card:

His vertical release point has been dropping gradually since 2008, but the drop this year has been particularly noticeable. Should a falling release point make us worry about his shoulder?

Another noticeable thing: the release point data points, which are color-coded by pitch type, seemed fairly random in grouping in previous years -- especially 2009 and 2010, his best seasons. The curve has always tended to sit a bit higher than the other pitches, but not to the point where there's a clear distinction. This year, the curves form a distinct yellow cluster at the top of the clump--it looks as if it would be fairly easy to guess from his arm angle when he's throwing the curve. The other pitches still seem pretty randomly distributed in the bottom half of the clump, but just being able to rule out a curve would make the hitter's job that much easier. (This might also explain why his swing% on the curve has fallen from 39.9% in 2009 to 31.6% this year. Hitters are spotting the curve sooner and laying off it.)

Also, in the velocity chart in the "Seasonal Trends" section, the fastball, cutter and change are grouped together in three fairly distinct but adjacent bands, forming a sort of woolly bear caterpillar. The woolly bear is noticeably shorter this year than in previous years, because as his FB velocity has come down, his changeup velocity has, if anything, ticked up slightly. The FB-CH velocity separation has gradually narrowed, from 9 mph in 2008/09, to 8 in 2010/11, to 7 this year. Not a huge change, but it can't be helping.

Don't know if any of this is really meaningful, but FWIW....

EDIT: One more tidbit on the curveball: Looking at his HR/(FB+LD) rate by year, in 2009 he apparently gave up no home runs on the curve; the rates for 2010-12 are 4.8%, 12.5%, and 18.2%. Granted, there are sample size issues here, but that's a pretty strong trend, and might support the idea that he's tipping the curve in some way.

Edited by Savin Hillbilly, 23 July 2012 - 10:04 AM.

[Harry Hooper]

A couple of trends that jump out on his brooksbaseball player card:

His vertical release point has been dropping gradually since 2008, but the drop this year has been particularly noticeable. Should a falling release point make us worry about his shoulder?

Another noticeable thing: the release point data points, which are color-coded by pitch type, seemed fairly random in grouping in previous years -- especially 2009 and 2010, his best seasons. The curve has always tended to sit a bit higher than the other pitches, but not to the point where there's a clear distinction. This year, the curves form a distinct yellow cluster at the top of the clump--it looks as if it would be fairly easy to guess from his arm angle when he's throwing the curve. The other pitches still seem pretty randomly distributed in the bottom half of the clump, but just being able to rule out a curve would make the hitter's job that much easier. (This might also explain why his swing% on the curve has fallen from 39.9% in 2009 to 31.6% this year. Hitters are spotting the curve sooner and laying off it.)

Interesting. Maybe it's not a health (shoulder) concern as much as it's a matter of approach. In order to max the "swoop from 1st base" impact of the cutter, has Lester adopted more of slinging style? The end result being a lost of thrust down the mound and diminished velocity on the hard stuff, and also the heightened exposure of the curveball delivery you mentioned. Hard to tell.

[941827]

It's quite a coincidence that another ace-level starting pitcher from Washington state born in 1984 went through a similar rough stretch this year. Tim Lincecum spent the whole first half getting crushed, but has pitched much better of late. The conventional wisdom is that something was going on mechanically that he finally worked out over the A-S break (Mike Krukow, the Giants' color guy, is convinced it was an issue of his release point being inconsistent). It sounds like Lester has similar mechanical flaws. I have to wonder how hard it is to get those kinds of issues worked out without skipping a start -- it would probably help to be able to do an extra side session or two, which he probably can't do while remaining in the rotation.

[Max Power]

Bradford has a good piece up right now on Lester and Beckett's struggles. Much of the relevant stuff on Lester:

I suppose this makes me feel better.

Doesn't this mean McClure has to go? If "three separate major league voices" all came to the same conclusion and McClure hasn't been effective at fixing the problem, then he has to be replaced with someone who can.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Doesn't this mean McClure has to go? If "three separate major league voices" all came to the same conclusion and McClure hasn't been effective at fixing the problem, then he has to be replaced with someone who can.

One thing that really freaked me out in Cafardo's Sunday column was this McClure quote, with reference to the idea of Beckett changing his warmup timing:

“I think it’s worth mentioning,” McClure said. “I don’t think it’s a bad mention even though he’s done it the same way and he had the best ERA in the league as a starter last year. I’ve thought about it before but I’ve been reluctant to mention it. He might say ‘you know, let’s try that.’ ”

So McClure is telling Cafardo that he's thought about suggesting a change to Beckett but has been "reluctant to mention it." He's not sure it's a good idea to talk about it to Beckett, but the millions of fans who read the Sunday Globe sports section can be trusted with this information. Can you say "communication skills fail"? I thought you could.

[Lose Remerswaal]

Doesn't this mean McClure has to go? If "three separate major league voices" all came to the same conclusion and McClure hasn't been effective at fixing the problem, then he has to be replaced with someone who can.

They have two pitching coaches and a bullpen coach. If this is accurate, and none of them have noticed this, they should get rid of all of them.

[sachilles]

It doesn't say who the major league voices are. McClure could have been one of them. Ultimately, he must choose to follow the advice and implement it. Getting it to work, isn't necessarily an instant fix even with the problem identified.

[yecul]

Not to mention you have to get the player to buy in. Part of the problem last year and, IMO, into this year is the dynamic duo's disinterest. Sure they're "working hard" and "care" and all that, but are they willing reflect and adjust?

Of course, if the pitching coach/organization isn't pressing them, then maybe the fault for lacking initiative shouldn't fall to them.

That might not be the case, but 2011 puts these questions on the table.

Edited by yecul, 23 July 2012 - 11:52 AM.

[Al Zarilla]

It's quite a coincidence that another ace-level starting pitcher from Washington state born in 1984 went through a similar rough stretch this year. Tim Lincecum spent the whole first half getting crushed, but has pitched much better of late. The conventional wisdom is that something was going on mechanically that he finally worked out over the A-S break (Mike Krukow, the Giants' color guy, is convinced it was an issue of his release point being inconsistent). It sounds like Lester has similar mechanical flaws. I have to wonder how hard it is to get those kinds of issues worked out without skipping a start -- it would probably help to be able to do an extra side session or two, which he probably can't do while remaining in the rotation.

Krukow is very happy working as the "color guy" next to play by play guy Duane Kuiper, but maybe he'd be willing to do some moonlighting for the Sox. Kidding of course, but I'd bet former pitcher and long time color guy for the Giants could do a better job even from the broadcasters booth than McClure. Last night during the ESPN game, Tito gave Curt Young kudos for his work back with the A's. Young seemed to be a zero with the Sox last year also. Tito also said when asked who wins the two WCs that the Red SOx were too good to overlook.

[joyofsox]

Edes:

Lester even hinted that a change of scenery might be beneficial.

"That's one of those questions you don't know until it happens or doesn't happen," he said. "I think if you asked Youk that he'd say the same thing. Hey, I love it here, but I don't know if a change of scenery is good. I haven't had a change of scenery. I think when you leave Boston, unless you go to a New York or Chicago, it can't do anything but help you.

"This is a tough place to play, you know? I love playing here because it makes people accountable. ... I love that part about this place, but I think if you go from here to, I don't know, Texas, it would probably be easier to play. You don't have to worry about other things. You just go out and play."

[Harry Agganis]

Edes:

The above quaotes are old and recycled as well as being out of context. Shame on you Edes. Basicalyy lifted these quotes from yhis article he wrote after the last start 4 days ago

http://espn.go.com/b...ident-struggles

Edited by Harry Agganis, 23 July 2012 - 02:56 PM.

[Judge Mental13]

Yes it's a shame that he ate his first piece of chicken and drank his first beer last season. It really affected him greatly.

At this point I just hope he's injured and trying to pitch through it like Lackey did last year. However if that's the case and this medical staff is not aware of it then this team really is comically dysfunctional.

If he's not injured, but instead just no longer an effective MLB starting pitcher, then it was a nice career while it lasted, I guess. Some nice moments. But whatever it is, somebody on this coaching staff, medical staff, or front office needs to do something about it before this guy takes the mound again. This is ridiculous.

[maufman]

The above quaotes are old and recycled as well as being out of context. Shame on you Edes. Basicalyy lifted these quotes from yhis article he wrote after the last start 4 days ago

http://espn.go.com/b...ident-struggles

Edes made it clear he was recycling the quotes. Whether it's appropriate to file an article where half the material is recycled is a whole other issue.

[Jnai]

It definitely raises a red flag when Lester, who once had one of the best cutters in mlb, throws 94 pitches in yesterday's game and only 3 of them were the cut fastball according to PitchFX.

http://www.brooksbas...2F&prevDate=722

Why is he relying on his sinker so much more when his success has been as a strikeout pitcher, not a groundball pitcher? Where is the confidence in and command of his cutter? That's the mystery to me.

Ignore that noise. The MLB algorithm is badly misfiring on Lester this year. The guy who runs the algorithm knows.

The player cards on my site have correct (human labeled) data. The game logs still use the automated PitchFX algorithm that is prone to errors unfortunately.

Edited by Jnai, 23 July 2012 - 08:07 PM.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Thought this article might interest people: the biology of pitching slumps. Here's a bit:

A major-league fastball requires exceptional hand speed and arm speed, which demand an abundance of the powerful fast-glycolytic muscle fibers in the arm and shoulder — the same fiber type Olympic sprinters and jumpers rely on for explosive power. Physiologists have a second name for this high-performance fiber: fast-fatigable.

This fiber fatigues rapidly because its main energy source is a limited supply of microscopic glycogen granules stored in each fiber. A pitcher can deplete the glycogen from his forearm flexors in a single outing, but it takes more than a day to restore the glycogen. If there is substantial micro-trauma to the muscle fibers — a routine occurrence in pitchers' forearm muscles — restoration can take a week or more. The glycogen energy system, technically known as intramuscular storage of energy substrate, is much like a rechargeable battery.

Depletion of glycogen causes muscle fibers to lose power, to contract more slowly under a load. At very low glycogen levels, fibers can shut down — enter a state of stiffness — or begin to act like slow-twitch fibers, relying not on glycogen but on a very small, less-powerful aerobic capacity.

This leads to differential fatigue, in which the flexion of the wrist and fingers lags the arm in its high-speed rotation. The result: the pitcher loses his precise coordination between the two fastest movements of pitching: forward arm rotation, with speeds as high as 10,000 degrees per second, and wrist flexion, up to 4,500 degrees per second.

This temporary loss of perfect coordination affects control, often leaving the fastball up in the strike zone. It also produces a slower spin rate, resulting in less movement of the fastball, making the pitch more easily hittable.

[maufman]

Thought this article might interest people: the biology of pitching slumps. Here's a bit:

Fascinating. So it's possible that Lester is hurt, but doesn't know it yet?

[Savin Hillbilly]

Fascinating. So it's possible that Lester is hurt, but doesn't know it yet?

I'm not reading "hurt" so much as "tired." If what's described in the article is actually what's happening to Lester, then I presume the prescription would be to shut him down for a couple of weeks.

It fits oddly with this theory, though, that Lester's worst starts of the year have come right after his longest layoff (9 days).

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Fascinating. So it's possible that Lester is hurt, but doesn't know it yet?

I didn't read it as much "hurt" as "depleted."

He probably could use an extended break from pitching. He's pitched a lot of innings over the last five years.

[knucklecup]

How did his bullpen session go today?

[Jnai]

Lester threw 0 sinkers today after throwing double digit sinkers in his last 7 starts. His last start with 0 sinkers was in August of last year.

[El Tiante]

Lester threw 0 sinkers today after throwing double digit sinkers in his last 7 starts. His last start with 0 sinkers was in August of last year.

So is that the start of something good? (I hope) Or just an aberration?

[SoxScout]

His last two starts

“I was just getting the ball down, locating,’’ Lester (5-8) said. “All the things I’ve been preaching all along. It carried through the whole game.”

“This was huge,’’ a relieved Lester said. “I threw the ball well. They only had four hits and a fly ball to right. You’ve got to look at it objectively. (Without Nix’) fly ball (homer) to right, they squeezed out a run and got one other and it’s 6-2 as opposed to 6-4.”

http://bostonherald....orts&position=4

Edited by SoxScout, 29 July 2012 - 01:06 AM.